NL Central Links: Brewers, Happ, Cervelli
Here’s the latest from around the NL Central…
- The Brewers may not add any free agent arms this winter, let alone big-name pitchers, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. Recent signings Randy Wolf, Jeff Suppan, Kyle Lohse were all unable to pitch effectively throughout the entirety of their multi-year deals with the Crew, and Matt Garza may be the latest signing to not make a full return on his contract given his rough 2015 numbers. The Brewers could rely on internal pitching options for next year’s rotation and since contending in 2016 will be a tall order, signing a top free agent starter (such as Wisconsin native Jordan Zimmermann) isn’t happening.
- Also from Haudricourt’s piece, he notes that next year’s Brewers payroll will be “down significantly” from its $102MM figure this season. “Principal owner Mark Attanasio has shown he is willing to go the extra mile financially when his team is in contending mode but otherwise has said many times he won’t spend just to spend,” Haudricourt writes, and thus a payroll cut seems imminent with the club entering a rebuild phase.
- J.A. Happ was a fairly unheralded trade deadline pickup but he’s pitched like an ace since joining the Pirates, to the point of outshining almost all the big-name pitchers who changed teams in July. Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan looks at why Happ has blossomed since coming to Pittsburgh to the tune of a 1.79 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 6.00 K/BB rate over 40 1/3 innings.
- Speaking of unheralded Pirates acquisitions, Francisco Cervelli has been more than just a suitable replacement for Russell Martin, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Cervelli’s 3.5 fWAR is the second-highest of any catcher in baseball, behind only Buster Posey (5.6) and well ahead of Martin (3.0). Cervelli has stayed healthy and contributed at the plate, while Sawchik also looks at how Cervelli has developed and adjusted his elite pitch-framing skills.
- Cody Stanley‘s 80-game PED suspension could threaten his future with the Cardinals, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. GM John Mozeliak said he and the organization will “look at our options” before deciding whether or not to keep the young catcher. “He clearly was having a nice year and we thought enough of him to bring him up. To everybody involved, it’s disappointing,” Mozeliak said. Stanley, a fourth-rounder from the 2010 draft, was ranked by Baseball America as the 22nd-best prospect in the Cards’ organization prior to the season, though given the depth of St. Louis’ system and the two PED suspensions now on Stanley’s record, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club cut ties with him.
Jonathan Lucroy Diagnosed With Concussion
Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy has been diagnosed with a concussion, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Lucroy sustained the injury while catching last Tuesday but did not experience all of the classic symptoms of a concussion. However, a concussion was still suspected after Lucroy reported dealing with “fogginess.” Today, Pittsburgh-based specialist Micky Collins confirmed the diagnosis of a concussion.
The injury puts the remainder of Lucroy’s season in jeopardy. He missed large swaths of the season on the disabled list, and has disappointed both offensively and defensively. Known as a top pitch framer, he’s fallen from elite to merely above average per StatCorner. With the bat, his .259/.322/.390 line is a big step down from his 2014 performance. His recent numbers suggest he had finally shaken off the rust. Since the middle of August, he’s hit .355/.407/.632 with 13 extra base hits in 86 plate appearances.
Lucroy hopes to return prior to the end of the season, but he acknowledges that concussions can be unpredictable. He takes a pragmatic view of the injury saying, “I plan on [playing]. But…there’s nothing for me to prove. And it’s not like we’re in a pennant race right now.“
Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Cespedes, GM Openings, Offseason Decisions
The Mets expect that they’ll receive calls on righty Matt Harvey, but have no intentions of discounting his trade value based on the recent shutdown controversy, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Harvey is reportedly displeased with some statements from the front office, per Heyman, though it’s far from clear whether there will be any long-term ramifications from the flare-up.
That’s just one of many interesting notes in a column that is chock full of information. Here are some more notable items:
- Also in the news recently, of course, is outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who has thrived with the Mets and just tweaked his contract to make a re-signing possible. Heyman says that the movement on that front was generated by Cespedes’s side, with the team readily agreeing to the proposal. Steve Adams and I discussed this on Thursday’s edition of the MLBTR Podcast, generally agreeing that he’s unlikely to return despite that agreement given other needs and the presence of Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares, and Michael Cuddyer. But Heyman hears that New York is “expected to make a serious play” for the soon-to-be free agent. Certainly, that’s an important open market storyline to watch this fall and winter. Despite the presence of several other highly-regarded players on the coming market, Heyman says a deal of $175MM (or even more) for the Cuban star would not be surprising.
- The Red Sox‘ GM hiring appears to be wide open, with Heyman writing that Diamondbacks senior VP of baseball operations De Jon Watson presents one possibility from another organization and AGM Mike Hazen could be an internal option. Other names that have come up include the frequently-mentioned Frank Wren and Brewers VP of amateur scouting Ray Montgomery.
- There is a “prevailing belief” that Reds GM Walt Jocketty will keep his position, says Heyman, though manager Bryan Price seems somewhat more likely to lose his job after a rough season. On the other hand, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale did suggest today on Twitter that Jocketty could be shifted into an advisory role, with Cincinnati hiring a new general manager.
- Yankees GM Billy Eppler is seen as the favorite to take the GM position with the Angels, says Heyman. Rangers GM Thad Levine could also get a long look, per the report.
- The Phillies‘ GM position just opened, of course, and Heyman says it will be in high demand among young executives — not only because of Philadelphia’s resources, but because the new general manager could be handed fairly broad authority. Possible names have been filtering out since even before Ruben Amaro Jr. was let go, and Heyman lists Angels AGM Matt Klentak, Giants scouting director John Barr, Royals AGM J.J. Piccolo, and the aforementioned Levine as some of the possibilities.
- Fans calling for the Braves to replace manager Fredi Gonzalez may not get their wish, says Heyman. Gonzalez is “said to be in no jeopardy,” per the report.
- The Tigers have a lot of work to do under new GM Al Avila, and Heyman says their “winter wish list” includes an outfielder — possibly Cespedes, though he may be too expensive, along with two starters and several bullpen arms. Detroit expects to plunk down some cash in the offseason, he adds.
- It’s always seemed likely that the Blue Jays would pick up their $12MM option over veteran righty R.A. Dickey, and Heyman says that is highly likely as things stand. Toronto will also at least attempt to retain lefty David Price, who has obviously been outstanding (even by his lofty standards) since being acquired at the deadline.
- The Dodgers will likely extend lefty Brett Anderson a qualifying offer. The 27-year-old has been well worth the $10MM that Los Angeles paid him this year, putting up a 3.36 ERA over 158 innings — his highest tally since his rookie campaign way back in 2009. Given his age and the fact that he has a nice platform to work from, it would seem likely that Anderson will decline a QO (if extended), though he’ll face a crowded market.
- Padres president Mike Dee tells Heyman that the organization is frustrated, but has good relationships in its upper front office and is looking forward rather than looking back at last winter. San Diego will need to make a permanent decision with its field staff, and is said to be undecided on whether to retain interim skipper Pat Murphy.
- Meanwhile, the Padres are assessing “whether to tweak or completely retool” its roster. Interestingly, Melvin Upton has played well enough that he could end up with a regular role as a platoon partner in center alongside Travis Jankowski. San Diego will face a somewhat difficult decision on whether to make starter Ian Kennedy a qualifying offer, but it appears the organization is leaning towards doing so.
Three Needs: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are the next team up in MLBTR’s series of high-level looks at the needs of non-contenders heading into the offseason. (We’ve already covered the Reds, Phillies, D-Backs and Rockies.) A quick reminder that we’ll be looking more in-depth at each club in our yearly Offseason Outlook series, but for now, let’s dive into some of Milwaukee’s needs as the winter approaches…
1. Find a GM committed to/capable of developing pitching. A quick (and admittedly rudimentary) look at the Brewers’ pitching over the past 15 seasons shows that they’ve received just 12 single season performances valued at three or more wins above replacement (per Fangraphs) from a starting pitcher. Of those 12 seasons, four came from Ben Sheets — far and away the best pitcher the team has drafted and developed in recent history — and one came from Yovani Gallardo. The others came from players who were signed as free agents or who were acquired via trade. For those who don’t like FIP-based WAR, even RA9-WAR shows only 11 such seasons with just four coming from Brewer-developed pitchers (two from Sheets, two from Gallardo).
In his time as GM, Doug Melvin acquired the bulk of his effective pitching from outside the organization. Recent seasons have seen Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson develop into serviceable options, and Taylor Jungmann has had a nice debut to this point, but the majority of pitchers to rank among the Brewers’ Top 5-10 prospects in the past decade have failed to pan out. That includes names like Mark Rogers, Tyler Thornburg and Jed Bradley. Others, such as Manny Parra and Jeremy Jeffress, have emerged as quality big league relievers at least, while others yet, namely Jake Odorizzi, have gone on to flourish with other organizations via trade.
Milwaukee has developed its share of offensive stars, with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Jonathan Lucroy, Corey Hart (pre-knee troubles), Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy all standing out as recent examples of quality hitters the team has produced out of the draft. A list of pitchers that have solidified themselves as Major Leaguers with the Brewers would, clearly, be far less impressive.
2. Trade the remaining veterans with appealing contracts. Lucroy, Adam Lind and, to a lesser extent, Francisco Rodriguez all have appeal to other clubs. Lind has his flaws — questionable defense at first and an inability to hit lefties — but is affordable and has continued to crush right-handed pitching. He’ll earn a reasonable enough $8MM salary in 2016. K-Rod has had a very strong season, and while he’s guaranteed a considerable $9.5MM through the end of 2016, $2MM of that comes in the form of a buyout on an affordable $6MM option for 2017. Another $2MM of it is deferred, interest-free, to 2018. The Brewers can include some cash in the deal to sweeten the return as well.
Lucroy’s the big draw here — a strong defender who has a history of well-above-average offense from behind the plate and is owed just $9.5MM through 2017. His numbers are down in 2015, to be sure, but he’s had some injuries, namely a broken toe and now a possible concussion. The latter of the two is far scarier, particularly given the position he plays, but if Lucroy is cleared and can finish the season symptom-free, he’ll be one of the most desirable trade chips in all of baseball — the type of player for whom the Brewers can ask a substantial return. Top 100 prospects, Major League ready starting pitching, young infield help — any of that should be on the table for Lucroy. Second-half splits are admittedly somewhat arbitrary in nature, but the .280/.339/.464 triple-slash posted by Lucroy since the All-Star break certainly can’t hurt his trade value.
3. Identify permanent corner infield solutions. My initial thought was to highlight the need to sort out the outfield, but the notion of playing Domingo Santana out of position in center field for a year while seeing what they have with him and Khris Davis (and allowing top prospect/recent MLBTR Podcast guest Brett Phillips to further develop) isn’t as concerning as the complete dearth of infield talent on this roster.
Scooter Gennett handles right-handed pitching just fine, but he’s a .120/.144/.148 hitter in his career off fellow lefties. It’s only 114 plate appearances, but the fact that the Brewers have only seen fit to grant him that much time is telling. His double-play partner, Jean Segura, was made out to be a trade chip earlier this season, but it’s hard to believe he has much real trade value. Segura’s a spotty defender at shortstop that hasn’t hit since the first half of 2013. It wouldn’t be a great outcome for him, but the notion of a Segura/Gennett platoon at second base makes some sense. Segura, after all, is a placeholder for Orlando Arcia, whose elite glove at shortstop and promising bat have him ranked among the best minor leaguers in all of baseball.
That leaves the corners as areas of need (assuming a Lind trade). Hunter Morris never developed into the slugging first baseman they’d hoped for, and Matt Dominguez didn’t hit enough at Triple-A to be considered an option, as he’s been claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays.
Brewers Claim Daniel Fields
The Brewers announced that they’ve claimed outfielder Daniel Fields off waivers from the Tigers and optioned him to Double-A (Twitter link). With this claim, Milwaukee now has 38 of its 40-man roster spots filled.
The 24-year-old Fields, a sixth-round pick by the Tigers, made a brief appearance in the Majors with Detroit this season, going 1-for-3 in what is to date the only big league game of his career. He’s spent most of the past two seasons at the Triple-A level, where he’s batted a combined .225/.312/.358 with 13 homers and 25 steals in 825 plate appearances.
Baseball America has ranked him among the Tigers’ Top 30 prospects in each of the past six offseasons (26th last winter) since he received a $1.625MM bonus to forgo his college commitment to Michigan. Their latest scouting report noted that he has fringy arm strength and is a fringe-average runner, making him better suited to play left field than center field. He does have average raw power, per BA, but he’s also prone to swinging and missing. BA twice ranked Fields as the best athlete in the Tigers’ minor league system, though the last time he earned that distinction came in the 2010-11 offseason.
Front Office Notes: Red Sox, Kantrovitz, Bloom
The Red Sox on Wednesday announced a trio of front office promotions, beginning with the promotion of former big league right-hander Brian Bannister to a newly created position: director of pitching analysis and development. He had previously been serving as a pro scout for the Sox. Additionally, amateur scout Chris Mears was bumped to pitching cross-checker, and Gus Quattlebaum was moved up from assistant director of professional/international scouting to director of pro scouting. Quattlebaum will replace former pro scouting director Jared Porter, who reportedly took a job with the Cubs late last month in the wake of Ben Cherington’s resignation.
More front office chatter from around the league…
- D-Backs senior vice president De Jon Watson and Red Sox assistant general manager Mike Hazen have surfaced as candidates for the GM vacancy in Boston, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Brewers VP of amateur scouting Ray Montgomery’s name has also come up in connection to the Sox, Heyman adds. As Heyman notes, Watson has previously worked under Dave Dombrowski with the Marlins. Frank Wren’s name is still very much in play as well, Heyman hears, but there’s no clear-cut favorite at this point.
- The Brewers have received permission from the Athletics to interview assistant general manager Dan Kantrovitz, per Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Kantrovitz is in his second stint with the Athletics and served as the Cardinals scouting director in the interim. Those interested in learning more about Kantrovitz will want to check out his interview with Fangraphs’ David Laurila from last October.
- Rosenthal also reports (Twitter link) that the Brewers are expected to request an interview with Rays vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom. Tampa Bay promoted Bloom from director of baseball ops to VP of baseball ops last offseason after Andrew Friedman joined the Dodgers organization. A graduate of Yale, Bloom has a background in player development, contract negotiation and international scouting.
Front Office Notes: Jennings, Brooks, Eppler, Nationals
Dan Jennings has a standing offer from the Marlins to return to the GM seat, but has not yet informed the team whether he will accept, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. Miami seemingly expects that Jennings will slot back in at that role, unless he is able to land a job elsewhere with more conclusive decisionmaking authority. As the Fish continue their front office maneuvering, the club has hired Marc DelPiano as VP of player development, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports on Twitter.
Here’s more on some front office and managerial situations around the league …
- The Brewers are set to interview Pirates director of player personnel Tyrone Brooks for the open GM position in Milwaukee, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. We have heard some chatter about possible names to watch for the Brewers, but it appears that Brooks is the first reported candidate to receive an interview. Brooks has held his current role in Pittsburgh for about four years, overseeing an impressive delivery of young talent onto the big league roster. He gave an interesting interview with MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch back when he received that promotion, acknowledging at the time that he ultimately hoped to keep climbing the front office ladder.
- Both the Mariners and Angels have been given permission to interview Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Eppler has long been considered a top general manager candidate, and interviewed with several teams in the past, so it’s no surprise to hear his name linked to multiple openings.
- The Nationals have dropped two straight to the Mets in hard-to-believe fashion, squandering an opportunity to re-start the division race in the season’s final weeks. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post encapsulates the situation well in his piece on the frustrating turn of events. Despite the obvious cause for disappointment, GM Mike Rizzo says there is no consideration to making a late-season change at manager. “Matt Williams is our manager,” said Rizzo, “and he’s going to lead us through this stretch. I’ve always supported him. We’re not going to talk about 2016 while 2015 is ongoing.” Rizzo himself is not believed to have any job security issues, says Svrluga, though he adds that the team’s ownership can be “opaque” in its decisionmaking.
Matt Garza Removed From Brewers’ Rotation
The Brewers informed right-hander Matt Garza that they’ve removed him from the rotation this weekend, writes Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Garza, according to Rosiak, “was livid” when informed of the move.
“It’s not my decision,” said Garza. “I didn’t get much say. It’s completely taken out of my hands. That’s it. I didn’t have any say at all. It is what it is. It’s just (expletive).”
While Garza’s numbers certainly aren’t in line with his career norms — the veteran has a 5.63 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 148 2/3 innings — he seemingly wanted the opportunity to sort out his issues and end the season on a high note. “I’ve played with guys who have gone through similar-type situations, just a rough year, and never once have I seen a guy shut down,” said Garza, adding that he has asked agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports to contact the front office and express his displeasure with the decision.
Via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, Garza continued: “We have an acting GM, and in three to four months, I’ll be introducing myself to a new one. That’s all I’ve got. For the last nine seasons, I’ve had a mid-3.00 [ERA], and I have one off year. It is what it is.” (Full video of Garza’s interview can be seen here, courtesy of MLB.com.) Garza did accept responsibility for the way he pitched and offered no excuses for his performance, stating, “It’s all on me. I’m the one who makes the pitches.”
Garza was given the option to pitch out of the bullpen for the rest of the season, GM Doug Melvin told Rosiak, but unlike teammate Kyle Lohse, he declined to take that opportunity. Summer trade acquisition Zach Davies has already joined the rotation (following Taylor Jungmann‘s addition earlier this year), and the Brewers will use Garza’s spot to look at other future options as well. Ariel Pena is one option to get a look. Manager Craig Counsell did tell reporters that Garza “is going to be a member of the rotation in 2016.”
As McCalvy notes, though, there could potentially be financial ramifications of the decision for Garza. The right-hander is slated to earn $12.5MM in each of the next two seasons, but his contract contains a vesting option for the 2018 season that will vest at $13MM if Garza makes 110 starts from 2014-17 and finishes the 2017 healthy with more than 115 innings thrown. As it stands right now, he’s on pace to finish with 106 starts over the initial four years of his contract, making the three to four lost starts potentially significant. If the option does not vest at $13MM, it shrinks substantially to a $5MM club option.
Blue Jays Claim Matt Dominguez, Designate Danny Dorn
The Blue Jays have claimed third baseman Matt Dominguez off waivers from the Brewers, the team announced (h/t to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, on Twitter). Toronto has designated first baseman/outfielder Danny Dorn to clear roster space for the move.
Still just 26 years of age, and once a top prospect, Dominguez was unable to lock down a big league job despite a long look from the Astros. He was claimed off waivers by Milwaukee earlier in the year, in hopes that he’d provide a near-term option with some upside, but apparently has not shown enough to warrant a call-up from the Brewers.
Dorn, 31, has had an eventful year after nine seasons exclusively in the minors. After seeing a brief debut with the Daimondbacks, he was claimed by Toronto and will presumably now find another new organization. Dorn owns a lifetime .280/.355/.485 slash with 106 home runs over 2,847 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
Front Office Notes: Dipoto, Hazen, Cherington, Angels
The Mariners plan to interview current Red Sox consultant and former Angels GM Jerry Dipoto, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Seattle recently parted with former GM Jack Zduriencik and is on the hunt for a replacement. Seattle appears likely to choose a baseball operations leader with prior experience in a general manager role, though it’s also said to be considering internal options.
Here are more notes on the front office and managerial changes expected to take place this fall and winter:
- Red Sox assistant GM Mike Hazen is a candidate for the Brewers‘ general manager position, Rosenthal and colleague Jon Morosi report (Twitter links). Milwaukee has not yet begun a formal interview process, he adds. The Brewers say they’ll take their time in finding a new GM, but could be leaning toward a young, analytically-minded candidate.
- Outgoing Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, meanwhile, may not be in a rush to reclaim that position with a new team, according to another tweet from Rosenthal. Cherington has received interest from clubs in unspecified opportunities, and he’s “in listening mode” rather than actively pursuing another GM post.
- MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez discusses the Angels‘ GM search, which as recently reported is expected to move quickly. The club has stayed quiet on its thinking thus far, says Gonzalez, but it seems reasonably likely that it will look to go with a first-time GM from another organization. Gonzalez lists a wide number of theoretical candidates.
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today provides an overview of the actual and potential front office openings around the game. He breaks down the latest rumblings among all of the clubs that seem reasonably likely to pursue change.