Trade Candidate: Yovani Gallardo
The Brewers have a 21-34 record, and they play in a division with three teams playing .614 ball or better. Milwaukee is highly unlikely to make the playoffs this year. Their farm system is in the bottom third to put it kindly and the team lacks a first-round pick this Thursday, so it would seem they have a great opportunity to add prospects this summer. The problem: the team is lacking for strong trade candidates. Rickie Weeks has been terrible. Kyle Lohse has been OK, though teams don't typically trade players a few months into a three-year contract. Corey Hart is a free agent after the season, but he still hasn't made his season debut. Aramis Ramirez is a quality bat, though he's essentially owed $20MM next year. Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez aren't going anywhere. But what about Yovani Gallardo?
When the Brewers signed Gallardo to a five-year, $30.1MM deal in April 2010, it was a commitment to build their rotation around him. He was 24 years old with minimal mileage on his arm, an average fastball velocity topping 92 miles per hour, and a strikeout rate of nearly ten per nine innings. He was a reliable producer in the three seasons that followed, even if walks and home runs kept him a bit short of an ace.
2013 has been a rough year, however. Gallardo was arrested for DUI in April, with a blood-alcohol level of 0.22. Things haven't been great on the field, either. His strikeout rate of 7.45 per nine innings is a career low. His home run rate is also a career worst, and he's allowed a whopping ten hits per nine. Those last two factors are likely to be better moving forward, but it is troublesome to see his average fastball velocity down to 90.5 miles per hour.
The velocity might be partially an early-season thing – Gallardo averaged 91.93 miles per hour on Friday, according to BrooksBaseball.net, compared to 92.89 one year prior. Despite Gallardo's 5.05 ERA, his skills suggest a 4.10 ERA moving forward. Still, this is a player who has never posted an ERA above 3.84 in his big league career. His lower walk rate in 2011 seems like a fluke, it's hard to say whether the strikeout rate will fully return, and he's always been homer-prone.
At the trade deadline, Gallardo will have about $2.58MM remaining in 2013 salary. He's owed a reasonable $11.25MM for 2014, and then his club can choose a $13MM club option or $600K buyout for '15. He can block deals to ten teams. On May 18th Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports said the Brewers were "really reluctant to trade Gallardo," but Rosenthal seems to have softened his stance on Saturday in calling the pitcher an "intriguing name." I imagine a rocky start to the season won't be enough to torpedo Gallardo's trade value.
The case against moving Gallardo: the Brewers have Braun, Gomez, and Jean Segura for about $17.5MM total next year, far below their value. Even if we disregard everyone else on the roster, that's a lot of star-level, affordable talent to waste amid a full-blown rebuild. I don't think the Brewers will punt on 2014, which means they need Gallardo or at least a suitable replacement.
That might be the key. Gallardo's $11.25MM salary next year is steep for a team with a payroll under $100MM, and the Brewers could look to acquire a big league-ready pitcher earning the league minimum, plus other pieces. It would be best to target a pitcher who hasn't had much big league success to date, but could learn on the job for the last few months of 2013 and take a step forward in '14. Some potential examples, in my opinion, could be Nate Karns of the Nationals, Jesse Biddle of the Phillies, Allen Webster of the Red Sox, Zach Lee of the Dodgers, and Kyle Gibson of the Twins. Perhaps some or even all of those specific names are off-limits, but it's the type of pitcher I'd expect Brewers GM Doug Melvin to pursue if he entertains offers on Gallardo in the coming months. Melvin could add further value by including one of his veteran relievers in a deal. A trade within the NL Central would be tough, but otherwise, nearly any other contender could show interest, as you can never have enough pitching and Gallardo is more than a rental.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Draft Notes: Cubs, Brewers
The 2013 amateur draft begins Thursday evening with the first 73 picks, continues Friday with rounds 3-10, and concludes Saturday with rounds 11-40. The Astros have the first selection in the draft and nearly half of MLBTR readers believe Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray will be the one to hear his name called. Earlier today, we learned Gray, Stanford's Mark Appel, San Diego's Kris Bryant, and North Carolina's Colin Moran are the Astros' top possibilities, with high school outfielder Clint Frazier a distant fifth. Let's take a look at today's other draft notes:
- The Cubs have spent most of their recent draft prep discussing their second and third round selections (41st and 75th overall) rather than who to take with the second overall choice, reports MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. "We’ve probably discussed No. 2 for about two hours of the four days we’ve been here," said Jason McLeod, the Cubs' senior vice president for scouting and player development. "We’ll get into those guys more this week."
- Those guys are Gray, Appel, Bryant, and Moran, according to Muskat in that same piece.
- McLeod doesn't want the Cubs to pigeonhole themselves into using the second overall pick on need (starting pitching); but, instead are looking for a player "to provide significant impact and hopefully get us to where we want to go on a consistent basis," writes Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald.
- The Brewers are confident they will land a big league talent even though their first pick won't come until the second round at number 54, reports Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "I enjoy the challenge," Brewers amateur scouting director Bruce Seid told Haudricout. "You might miss the chance for a so-called impact player in the first round but there will be some (future) big-leaguers in there. We've just got to find them." The Brewers forfeited their first round draft choice (17th overall) when they signed free agent Kyle Lohse.
- Within that same column, Haudricourt blames the Brewers' current woes, as well as a farm system thin on projected impact players, on their failure in the 2008 and 2009 drafts. The Brewers had 11 selections in the first two rounds of those drafts and none of those players have spent a day with the club at the MLB level and the top six picks in the 2008 draft are no longer with the organization.
- Many teams have held pre-Draft workouts to get a better look at the prospects. MLB.com's Adam McCalvy provided an inside look at those workouts from the viewpoint of a former participant, Milwaukee outfielder Logan Schafer, who attended a Brewers' workout in 2008 and was later drafted by the team in the third round that year.
Rosenthal On Hughes, Gallardo, Kershaw, Pirates
Here’s a look at some highlights from the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..
- At the age of 27, Phil Hughes will be the youngest pitcher on the open market by far. The Yankees hurler figures to be more in demand that one might think thanks to his high strikeout rate, low walk rate, postseason experience, and his ability to survive – and sometimes thrive – in New York. Hughes’ biggest flaw is giving up a lot of home runs, but a more forgiving ballpark could help correct that. Rosenthal suggests that he would do well in the pitcher-friendly parks of the Mets, Padres, Mariners, and Tigers.
- The trade market for starting pitchers doesn’t look very attractive at this point, but Yovani Gallardo is one player to keep an eye on. Gallardo hasn’t done especially well this season for the Brewers and his fastball velocity is trending downward, but he might be better than any other starter on the block. He’s also relatively affordable as he makes $7.75MM this season and $11.25MM next season with a $13MM option for 2015.
- The Dodgers might not be in as strong of a position for Robinson Cano as they initially appeared. Clayton Kershaw is going to go for ~$200MM and the team might not be able to take another contract in that range. As Josh Kosman and Mark DeCambre of the New York Post reported earlier this week, the club will have to commit a greater percentage of their deal to revenue sharing than the originally thought. That could cost them more than $1B over 25 years and that could affect their ability to maintain skyhigh payrolls.
- Much has been made of the workloads of the Pirates‘ top relievers, triggering speculation that they’ll have to trade for relief help at the deadline. That could happen, but team officials note that Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon both have been quite efficient while Justin Wilson has gone back-to-back just twice in his multi-inning role this season. The club also has a number of intriguing options waiting in the wings in Triple-A, most notably Ryan Reid and Jared Hughes.
Quick Hits: Ramirez, Brewers, Upton, Red Sox
Here's tonight's look around baseball..
- Aramis Ramirez may be a popular name in trade rumors this deadline, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com. The Brewers may look to move the veteran third baseman, with the club struggling in last place in the NL Central. Ramirez understands the speculation, saying "It’s part of baseball. When teams don’t perform, you see changes." The 34-year-old is signed through 2014, and has played well despite injuries this season, slashing .305/.387/.512 in 93 plate appearances.
- Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez told reporters that he has discussed sending major offseason acquisition B.J. Upton to Triple-A to work out if his current struggles, according to an Associated Press report. Gonzalez acknowledges that there may be some obstacles involved, "I think there's some logistics — contractual things and that sort of stuff — that they might not be able to do it that easy."
- In his latest mailbag, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe answered questions about possible trade deadline targets for the Red Sox, as well as Jacoby Ellsbury. Cafardo doesn't feel the club needs to make a deal to improve its pitching, but he did state that Jonathan Papelbon continues to be a likely target. Meanwhile, Cafardo thinks that it would still take a major contract to keep Ellsbury in Boston past this season.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com looks back at the Nationals' decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg in light of the young starter’s latest injury scare. Morosi feels that last season may have been the Nationals best shot at a World Series, and wonders what could have been done to best utilize Strasburg’s prized arm.
Quick Hits: Wacha, Kawasaki, Mariners, Gomez
The Cardinals will need another starter on Thursday to replace John Gast, and that could be Michael Wacha, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests. Wacha, who would be making his big-league debut, was scratched from his start Sunday, which the Cardinals now say is due to his innings count so far this year. Wacha ranked No. 76 in both MLB.com's and Baseball America's preseason top prospects lists, and he has pitched well so far in 2013 at Triple-A Memphis (albeit with a low strikeout rate), posting a 2.05 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Cards GM John Mozeliak says that the team will likely decide on Tuesday who will make Thursday's start. Here are more notes from around the majors.
- It's unclear what will happen to infielder Munenori Kawasaki of the Blue Jays once Jose Reyes returns, but Jays manager John Gibbons would like Kawasaki to stick around, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com reports. "When the time comes, we'd definitely like to keep him, that's for sure. But we don't know when Reyes is coming back, either." Kawasaki has become a fan favorite, and he has played decently, hitting .247/.345/.320. But Chisholm notes that the Jays already have Maicer Izturis, Emilio Bonifacio and Mark DeRosa.
- It's a bad day for the Mariners' rebuilding efforts, Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes. The Mariners promoted prospect Nick Franklin but demoted former No. 2 overall draft pick Dustin Ackley in the process. That move followed the demotion of Jesus Montero. Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders haven't hit particularly well, and Brandon Maurer has struggled. "Right now, the Mariners are being carried by a bunch of veterans on one-year deals who were supposed to be here to round out that young core and help stabilize the environment through which young guys were going to take their games to the next level," says Baker, noting that Kyle Seager is the only starting player who has accomplished that.
- Ron Gardenhire feels Carlos Gomez of the Brewers "learned a lot" from his time with the Twins, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reports. Gomez played with the Twins for two years before heading to Milwaukee in exchange for J.J. Hardy after the 2009 season. The Twins tried to help Gomez calm down as a player, McCalvy writes. "I thought he learned a lot with us," Gardenhire says. "Gomez was a lot of fun. I think everybody knew it from the time he was with the Mets, how much talent he had, if he could ever harness it and calm himself down enough."
- It's questionable whether the Angels and Dodgers have spent their money well, but it's important that they're spending, says Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. "You can't win on scouting and player development alone. That is a foundation, with free agency a necessary supplement. Spending does not guarantee winning, but spending absolutely correlates with winning," says Shaikin. Still, Shaikin notes that the Angels' core of homegrown players includes Mike Trout, Jered Weaver, and Howie Kendrick; the Dodgers' includes Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. Shaikin quotes Dodgers president Stan Kasten, who reiterates that his team's long-term plan is to build through its farm system, just as the Braves did when Kasten worked there.
- The Cubs aren't quite ready to declare themselves sellers, but it sounds like they're getting there, ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers reports. GM Jed Hoyer says that teams begin to assess their trading options "50-60 games within the deadline." Hoyer adds, "You always hold out hope you can string things together and make a run. It’s really hard in this division, I’ll say that. You have three teams playing really well." In a recent poll, MLBTR readers thought the Cubs' Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano were among the players most likely to be traded.
Minor Moves: Maya, Hensley
Today's minor moves…
- The Nationals announced Yunesky Maya cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A. The 31-year-old had been designated for assignment on Friday to open a roster spot for Jeff Kobernus. Maya had signed out of Cuba for $8MM in 2010, and has totaled 59 big league innings with a 5.80 ERA.
- The Brewers signed reliever Clay Hensley to take Donovan Hand's place at Triple-A, tweets MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. Hand joined the big league club yesterday. Hensley had been released from the Reds' Triple-A affiliate a week ago, after posting a 4.00 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, and 1.00 HR/9 in 18 innings. Hensley is best known for allowing home run #755 to Barry Bonds in 2007, which tied Hank Aaron's record. Bonds would go on to hit seven additional home runs, the final one coming off Ubaldo Jimenez. Bonds was indicted for perjury and obstruction of justice related to the government's BALCO investigation that offseason, and his legal issues and reported steroid use led to what his agent called a "conspiracy" among teams not to sign him.
- Six players currently reside in DFA limbo: Francisco Martinez of the Mariners, Michael Bowden of the Cubs, Robert Andino of the Mariners, Billy Buckner of the Angels, and Francisco Rondon and Ben Francisco of the Yankees.
Managerial Notes: Mattingly, Nationals, Roenicke
Here's the latest on a few managers on the hot seat after their clubs have gotten off to disappointing starts in 2013…
- Don Mattingly isn't in "imminent danger" of being fired as Dodgers manager, ESPN's Buster Olney and Jayson Stark report. GM Ned Colletti met with Mattingly and the coaching staff after Tuesday's game and a source believes “the air was cleared and a new direction was given.” Colletti wasn't behind Mattingly's criticisms of the team, though sources say the GM did encourage Mattingly's choice to be more assertive.
- Dodgers president Stan Kasten was also not offended by Mattingly's comments, telling FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal that the skipper was trying to motivate the club. “I know what Don is trying to do, what his intention is. It’s to light a fire, kick-start the team. He’s trying everything he can think of. We’re all behind him," Kasten said.
- If this is Mattingly's last season in Los Angeles, some predict he could find a new job managing the Nationals next year, CBS Sports' Danny Knobler reports. The Nats previously considered Mattingly for a managerial opening (though he wasn't interviewed) and the team is believed to "strongly favor hiring a high-profile manager" to replace the retiring Davey Johnson rather than promote an internal option.
- Brewers manager Ron Roenicke is "not the issue" with the team's problems, owner Mark Attanasio tells CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. An anonymous scout recently criticized the Brewers for lacking in effort but Attanasio disagrees: "The guys may be a little down. But I saw them before (Wednesday's game), and there was a lot of energy and enthusiasm. That was a very spirited dugout. One thing I like about Ron Roenicke, the players play hard for him." Attanasio chalked his team's woes up to "streakiness," a lack of situational hitting and struggling starting pitching.
NL Central Notes: Hart, Choo, Arroyo, Cardinals
Brewers GM Doug Melvin indirectly shed some light on the philosophical differences which led to trading Brett Lawrie to the Blue Jays. Lawrie's name came up when Melvin told Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel the plan is to keep second base prospect Scooter Gennett in Triple-A for the full season instead of being promoted because of the struggles of Rickie Weeks. "The plan worked for (Prince) Fielder and Corey Hart and all those guys," Melvin said. "Spend your time at each level. That's the part I couldn't get through with Brett Lawrie. He wanted to go past everybody. That model works if you're a freak like Ryan Braun, but he did play at every level. I always say to go out and prove you're too good for the league. If you do that, we'll consider moving you up." Instead Melvin, moved Lawrie out to Toronto. In other news from the the NL Central:
- Brewers manager Ron Roenicke told reporters, including MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, there is no plan to send Corey Hart, recovering from right knee surgery, on a minor league rehab assignment before June 1. This means Hart, who is eligible to be activated from the 60-day disabled list on May 30, will not join the Brewers until mid-June, at the earliest.
- The number of years and not money will be the issue for the Reds in trying to re-sign Shin-Soo Choo, tweets John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Choo ranks second on MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.
- If Choo does re-sign with Cincinnati, a payroll casualty could be Bronson Arroyo. In a second tweet, Fay says the Reds' payroll is a big puzzle and there are lots of factors involved in trying to retain both Choo and Arroyo.
- Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch opines merit is not behind the Cardinals' decision to replace the injured Jaime Garcia with fellow left-hander Tyler Lyons, but a desire to delay the service clock of their top pitching prospect, Michael Wacha. This is the second time Wacha, owner of an 1.89 ERA in eight Triple-A starts, has been bypassed to fill a rotation opening. Miklasz further believes the Cardinals, owners of the best record in the National League, don't have the best 25 players in their system on the active roster citing top prospect Oscar Taveras toiling away in Triple-A while Shane Robinson and Ty Wigginton are struggling offensively.
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak disagrees with Miklasz's assessment. "I’m not worried about the clock," Mozeliak was quoted as saying by the Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold (via Sulia). "The media is making a lot of the clock. Other people who read the media are making more of it. To me it’s like that’s not what is making our decisions. It’s managing our decisions for what’s best for the club and what’s best for the individuals in their own silo of development."
- Chris Carpenter is continuing to make progress in his recovery from nerve trouble in his neck and back soreness and could make a rehab start in early June, Goold reports. "I’m not going to push myself back," Carpenter said (as quoted by Goold on Sulia). "I’m going to make sure that I’m healthy and that I know everything is going to work and that I can go out there and take that grind of the amount of pitches and innings it takes to go the rest of the year." Carpenter threw three simulated innings Saturday, will throw a side session Monday, and throw another four simulated innings Thursday, according to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch and Chad Thornburg.
Rosenthal On Cubs, Brewers, Marlins
Ken Rosenthal's new video for FOX Sports offers a variety of trade tidbits on the Cubs, Brewers and Marlins.
- Matt Garza of the Cubs makes an intriguing trade candidate, but Rosenthal says that one can't rule out the possibility that the Cubs will keep Garza and extend him a qualifying offer at the end of the season, hoping to collect draft-pick compensation. Scott Feldman might also be traded, but Rosenthal notes that his peripherals indicate he has been lucky so far.
- Alfonso Soriano has only one year left on his eight-year, $136MM contract, which could make him a more attractive trade target than in years past, Rosenthal notes, but Soriano also has a no-trade clause, allowing him to control his destination.
- The Brewers, meanwhile, have fewer trade options, Rosenthal argues. Corey Hart is hurt, Rickie Weeks is in the midst of a poor season, and Aramis Ramirez is owed $16MM in 2014 and has a $4MM buyout on his mutual option the following season. The Brewers will be "reluctant" to trade Yovani Gallardo, whose contract carries him through next season and gives the Brewers an option on his services in 2015.
- The Marlins have received calls on relievers Steve Cishek, Ryan Webb and Mike Dunn, Rosenthal reports.
NL Central Notes: Rizzo, Cardinals, K-Rod, Brewers
It could be argued that Anthony Rizzo cost himself some arbitration riches by signing a seven-year, $41MM contract extension with the Cubs, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports sees Rizzo's logic. As Rosenthal explains in his latest Hot Corner video, Rizzo's personal history — including a past brush with Hodgkin's lymphoma and a demotion to the minors when with the Padres — could've played a role in his accepting the security of a multiyear deal. Rizzo entered the season with less than a full year of service time, plus Rosenthal notes that Rizzo will still get a crack at free agency. If the Cubs pick up both option years on the deal, Rizzo could hit the market at age 32, young enough to score another nice contract.
Let's check in with some more news from around the NL Central…
- Also from Rosenthal's video, he praises the Cardinals' depth at both the major and minor league levels, giving the team great flexibility in case of injuries or if they want to pursue a trade.
- Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. is an unsung figure in the club's organizational success, Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch observes. Miklasz chronicles how DeWitt championed the analytical process of then-vice president Jeff Luhnow (now the Astros' GM) that helped the Cards develop their highly-regarded minor league system.
- Francisco Rodriguez received a few Major League offers from other clubs this winter, the reliever tells MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, but Rodriguez chose to instead sign a minor league deal with the Brewers due to his familiarity with the organization. "There were a few teams out there, but I was waiting for the right opportunity," Rodriguez said. "I had a few options I could have taken to be at the big league level right away, but I wasn't ready physically to make that commitment."
- The Brewers' limited trade options, and a possible Jean Segura contract extension are amongst the topics covered by Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel in his reader mailbag.