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Jake Odorizzi On Twins Tenure

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Right-hander Jake Odorizzi may have made the final start of his Twins tenure on Monday. Odorizzi turned in a solid performance against the high-powered Yankees, allowing two runs on five hits (with five strikeouts and no walks) in five innings, but that wasn’t enough to stave off elimination for the Twins. Minnesota fell 5-1 to finish off a three-game ALDS sweep for the Yankees, bringing an early end to an impressive bounce-back season for the Twins.

Now that Minnesota’s offseason has begun, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine must decide whether to aggressively pursue a new deal for Odorizzi. The soon-to-be 30-year-old’s on the brink of free agency, where he’ll be among the top non-Gerrit Cole starters available, though he does seem open to re-signing with the Twins.

Speaking in regards to his time with the Twins and his future Wednesday, Odorizzi told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and other reporters: “That’s out of my hands. I really enjoyed my two years here. If I’m back, great. I’ve really taken a liking to here. But if not, I wish nothing but the best. This is a great group of people from top to bottom. It’s tough to end the year, but at least I got to go out with great fans and a great atmosphere.”

Odorizzi, whom the Twins acquired from the Rays entering the 2018 season, is coming off a career year at an opportune moment. The first-time All-Star pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP with 10.08 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 across 159 innings, averaging a personal-best 92.9 mph on his fastball along the way.

Thanks to his strong production this season, Odorizzi will go into free agency as a qualifying offer candidate. Receiving a QO wouldn’t do Odorizzi any favors as he prepares to go to the market, as it would require a team to cough up a draft pick(s) while likely giving him a substantial payday over a couple years. However, it’s possible the Twins will simply let Odorizzi walk instead of risking having to pay an $18MM-plus salary for 2019 should he accept a QO. That said, waving goodbye to Odorizzi would be a tough development for the Twins, who are also at risk of seeing Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda bolt via free agency. Additionally, they’ll have a decision to make on Martin Perez, who has a $7.5MM club option or a $500K buyout for next year.

Along with No. 1 starter Jose Berrios, each of Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda and Martin were key components of a Minnesota rotation that saw all of them amass at least 26 starts during a 101-victory, AL Central-winning 2019. The lone member of the quintet who rivaled Berrios in effectiveness was Odorizzi, who may be in another uniform the next time he takes the ball.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Twins QO Jake Odorizzi?

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Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for the Twins tomorrow evening at Target Field. With Minnesota facing elimination, it could be the impending free agent’s final start in their uniform. Odorizzi has started 62 games for the Twins since coming over from the Rays via trade prior to the 2018 season. Have those performances been enough to warrant a qualifying offer?

MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently examined the qualifying offer market for pitchers (and position players, for that matter), noting that Odorizzi presented a borderline case. On the surface, his 2019 numbers would seem to make a QO a no-brainer. This season, Odorizzi worked to 3.51 ERA and 3.36 FIP, each of which ranked in the top 25 among pitchers with 150+ innings. Under the tutelage of first-year pitching coach Wes Johnson, Odorizzi’s stuff ticked up, as his 93 MPH average four-seam fastball, per Brooks Baseball, was a career-high. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he shattered his previous career-best strikeout rate (27.1%, up nearly five points from last season). Further, Odorizzi was essentially immune to the leaguewide home run spike this season, coughing up a career-low 0.91 HR/9. Put it together, and Odorizzi was worth around 4 wins above replacement, per both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, easily worth the approximately $18MM he would lock in if he were to accept a qualifying offer.

Of course, though, teams look beyond a player’s previous-year stats in projecting future performance. Odorizzi doesn’t turn 30 until March and has started at least 28 games in each of his six full MLB seasons, so durability and age are on his side. Yet entering this season, his track record was more that of a back-end innings eater than the #2 starter he seemed to be in 2019. From 2016-2018, Odorizzi worked to a 4.09 ERA with a 4.60 FIP, with one of the league’s lowest ground ball rates causing home run problems. Even in 2019, Odorizzi remained a fly ball pitcher, part of the reason the Twins chose to hold him for Monday in Minnesota rather than having him work in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. It’s difficult to imagine him maintaining an 8.8% HR/FB rate moving forward, and his pre-2019 strikeout and walk numbers were hardly eye-catching. If a few more of Odorizzi’s fly balls begin clearing fences and/or his strikeouts regress to their previous levels, his elite run prevention numbers could bounce back up in a hurry.

It’s also notable that Odorizzi’s pure stuff, even with the aforementioned velocity uptick, isn’t world-beating. Per Statcast, Odorizzi has below-average fastball velocity (23rd percentile), fastball spin (40th percentile) and curveball spin (17th percentile). That’s sure to catch the attention of front offices, who increasingly have turned back to valuing raw stuff on the free agent market. Odorizzi can’t rival someone like Zack Wheeler when it comes to GIF-worthy pitching overlays, and just last offseason we saw Dallas Keuchel, whose multi-year track record dwarfed Odorizzi’s, languish on the free agent market after being tagged with a QO.

There’s also the Twins’ situation to consider. Minnesota only has $19.88MM committed to 2020 salaries, per Baseball Reference. They’re sure to exercise Nelson Cruz’s $12MM option and have a hefty slate of arbitration-eligible players, but they’ll nevertheless enter the offseason with ample financial flexibility. They’ll also have plenty of opportunity in the starting rotation. With Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Kyle Gibson slated to hit free agency and Martín Pérez looking increasingly likely to be bought out, there’s almost nothing in the way of certainty behind José Berríos. Of course, merely having vacancies in the rotation shouldn’t mean the Twins feel compelled to QO Odorizzi if they feel that’d be a questionable investment.

So we’ll turn it over to you, MLBTR readers. How would you advise baseball ops heads Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to handle Odorizzi’s situation this winter?

(poll link for app users)

A Look At The 2009 IFA Class

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Although the Twins’ have enjoyed a rapid turnaround from 78 wins a season ago to 101 wins and a division title this year, that breakout has roots tracing back to 2009, writes Dan Hayes of The Athletic. A decade ago, the Twins landed a transformative class of international amateurs—Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco—that blossomed into franchise cornerstones and 2019 stars. At the time, the $4.65MM the team doled out to land the three 16-year-olds was uncharacteristic for the Twins franchise, which had largely been a non-factor in the international scene; the team had no academy in the Dominican Republic and had virtually no connections with the players’ pseudo-agents. That made it especially difficult to land Sano, a coveted prospect who commanded a $3.15MM bonus and captured the attention of nearly every MLB club. On the other hand, there was less competition for Kepler, a German-born prospect, and Polanco, a scrawny teenager who lacked the projectability of Sano. Of course, those signings have delivered immense value to a team that has ridden Polanco, Kepler, and Sano to the franchise’s first division title since 2010. According to Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, those three have been the 2019 Twins’ first-, third-, and seventh-most valuable players, combining to contribute 12.8 wins of value to the team.

Nelson Cruz Hopes Twins Pick Up 2020 Option

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Chatting before tonight’s ALDS opener, Twins slugger Nelson Cruz made clear that he’s hoping to stay in Minnesota for at least one more season. MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park was among those covering the interview (video via Twitter).

Cruz’s contract paid him fourteen million well-earned dollars this year. It also came with a $12MM club option. The team would owe just $300K if it declines to pay that sum for Cruz’s age-39 campaign.

“I want to be back,” says Cruz. “I don’t have that call, but hopefully they can pick up the option. The future looks really bright for us so I want to be part of a winning team for many years.” 

Cruz likely won’t need to twist any arms in the Minnesota front office to achieve his desired end. He just homered in tonight’s game and launched 41 long balls over 521 plate appearances. With a monster .311/.392/.639 batting line on the year, Cruz topped all but three hitters leaguewide with a 163 wRC+.

If anything, Cruz’s immense output and affordable option serve to highlight what a bargain his contract seemed at the time. Even with the anticipation of another tepid market for defensively limited sluggers, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $30MM pact. He’d figure to have as much or more earning power this winter, making it quite likely the option will be picked up without much second thought.

Twins Announce ALDS Roster

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The Twins on Friday morning announced their 25-man roster for their American League Division Series date with the Yankees, which is slated to begin tonight when right-hander Jose Berrios faces off with Yankees lefty James Paxton in New York. Here’s the full roster for what figures to be a slugfest between the top two home-run-hitting clubs in MLB history:

Right-handed pitchers

Left-handed pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Designated Hitter

It’s notable that each of Arraez, Adrianza and Gonzalez and Kepler is active. All four dealt with late injuries, with Arraez in particular emerging as a question mark following an ankle sprain on the penultimate day of the regular season. The rookie is far from a household name, but he hit .334/.399/.439 with more walks (36) than strikeouts (29) in 366 plate appearances this season and should see plenty of at-bats this series if he’s 100 percent.

The Twins somewhat quietly boasted a formidable bullpen down the stretch. Duffey allowed only two runs after the trade deadline (in his final outing of the year), cementing himself as the top setup option to Rogers. May enjoyed a strong finish to the year, as did the veteran Romo, acquired in a deadline swap. Littell, a former Yankees prospect, posted a 0.88 ERA in his final 30 2/3 innings following a June recall to the big leagues. He’ll be joined by rookies Stashak, Smeltzer and Graterol, the latter of whom is the organization’s top pitching prospect.

While carrying four rookie relievers may surprise some, it’s Dobnak’s inclusion that is perhaps the unlikeliest development. The 24-year-old signed out of independent ball as an undrafted free agent two years ago and skyrocketed through Minnesota’s system, posting a 1.59 ERA in 28 1/3 innings following his MLB debut in 2019. He not only claimed a roster spot but has emerged as a likely starting option alongside Berrios and Odorizzi. That’s both a testament to his ascension and a reminder that Michael Pineda is serving a 60-game suspension.

The most notable absence for the Twins is left-hander Martin Perez, who made 29 starts and three relief appearances for the Twins this season after signing as a free agent. His omission from the roster doesn’t necessarily mean that the Twins plan to decline his $7.5MM option for the 2020 season, but it’s also not a ringing vote of confidence in the veteran southpaw.

Derek Shelton Could Be Managerial Candidate For Pirates

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  • The Pirates, who fired manager Clint Hurdle on Sunday, will “likely” consider hiring Twins bench coach Derek Shelton as his replacement, Morosi tweets. Currently in his second season with the Twins, the 49-year-old Shelton has garnered extensive coaching experience over the past decade and a half. Plus, as Morosi notes, Shelton has an important Pittsburgh connection in general manager Neal Huntington. The two of them worked in the Cleveland organization together from 2005-07.

Luis Arraez Suffers Sprained Right Ankle

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Twins super-utilityman Luis Arraez had to be carted off the field during the seventh inning of today’s 4-3 Minnesota win over Kansas City.  Arraez and teammate Willians Astudillo collided on the pitcher’s mound while chasing a pop-up off the bat of the Royals’ Hunter Dozier.

As ugly as the injury looked, x-rays were negative, and Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that Arraez suffered a sprained right ankle.  The severity of the sprain isn’t yet certain, and the team doesn’t yet know whether or not Arraez will be available for Game One of the ALDS against the Yankees on Friday.

Losing Arraez for the postseason would be a major blow for the Twins, which represents just how much of an impact the 22-year-old has made in his rookie season.  After making his MLB debut in mid-May, Arraez was recalled from Triple-A for good on June 18 and has been an everyday player for Minnesota, playing mostly at second base but also seeing significant time as a left fielder and third baseman (plus a handful of games at shortstop).

As a pure contact hitter in today’s power-heavy game, Arraez’s throwback approach has resulted in solidly above-average offensive production (125 wRC+) and a .334/.399/.439 slash line over 366 plate appearances.  Arraez’s 8.0% strikeout rate is the lowest of any player with at least 350 PA this season, and he is one of the very few regulars who racked up more walks (36) than strikeouts (29).

There was a bit of good fortune mixed into those results, as Arraez’s .334 xwOBA was below his .367 wOBA and he did enjoy a .355 BABIP.  But his performance wasn’t exactly a surprise, as Arraez consistently scored high BABIP totals while also posting high averages and on-base numbers during his six years in Minnesota’s farm system.  Arraez wasn’t considered to be a top-flight prospect, though he did hit .331/.385/.414 over 1585 PA as a Twins minor leaguer.

Even if Arraez is out for Game One, the Twins are expected to get some reinforcements back in the form of Max Kepler and Marwin Gonzalez.  Arraez essentially usurped the super-util role the Twins had in mind for Gonzalez when they signed him to a two-year, $21MM free agent deal last winter, though Gonzalez has battled some injuries and been inconsistent at the plate.

Twins Notes: Kepler, Marwin, Adrianza

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  • Twins manager Rocco Baldelli expects the banged up duo of outfielder Max Kepler and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez to be ready when the American League Division Series begins next week, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com relays. Meanwhile, injured utility player Ehire Adrianza is making progress, but he’s not as far along in his recovery process as Kepler and Gonzalez are in theirs. Shoulder and back problems have prevented Kepler from taking an at-bat since Sept. 14, thereby derailing a breakout season; Gonzalez has been dealing with oblique issues throughout the month; and Adrianza went down Sept. 12 with oblique troubles of his own.

Sam Dyson Out Up To 12 Months Following Shoulder Surgery

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Twins right-hander Sam Dyson underwent capsule repair surgery on his right shoulder yesterday, manager Rocco Baldelli revealed to reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). It’s a brutal development for both Dyson and the organization, as the recovery period associated with that procedure could span a full 12 months. It’s not clear whether Dyson will be able to take the ball at all in 2020, which seemingly makes an offseason non-tender of the righty a necessity.

At the time of the trade that sent Dyson from San Francisco to Minnesota, the Twins looked to be acquiring one of the more effective relievers who’d been made available. Dyson posted a 2.69 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.64 HR/9 and a 61.3 percent ground-ball rate in 70 1/3 innings with the 2018 Giants and had followed that up with 51 innings of 2.47 ERA ball to open the 2019 campaign. He’d improved both his strikeout and walk rates while continuing to allow fewer than one homer per nine innings pitched.

Minnesota sent three prospects — Jaylin Davis, Prelander Berroa and Kai-Wei Teng — to the Giants in order to acquire Dyson for this season and for 2020, which would be his final arbitration-eligible season. However, Dyson was shelled in his first outing as a Twin and quickly landed on the injured list. He returned and actually pitched fairly well (2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 innings) before again being shut down due to ongoing discomfort in his biceps/shoulder.

More troubling than the quick IL placement, for the Twins, was the fact that Dyson revealed to the club that he’d been dealing with some discomfort since mid-July — before he was ever traded to the Twins. Medical records at the time of the swap checked out, as Dyson had not even divulged the pain he was feeling to the Giants (and, thus, the Giants had no way of documenting said red flags).

The Twins reportedly investigated whether there was any possibility that the Giants might’ve had some inkling of Dyson’s shoulder troubles — as any team would — but there’s no evidence of any efforts to withhold information. In the end, it appears to be a simple case of miserable luck for the Twins, who almost certainly won’t commit to a raise on Dyson’s $5MM salary for the 2020 season and now seem likely to cut him loose for nothing.

If there’s any silver lining for Minnesota, it’s that the need for Dyson is less acute than it was at the time of the trade to acquire him. Tyler Duffey hasn’t allowed a run since the trade and has a 38-to-5 K/BB ratio over his past 22 2/3 scoreless innings. Closer Taylor Rogers remains an excellent weapon, and hard-throwing righty Trevor May has been largely excellent over the past two months as well. The Twins’ other deadline pickup, Sergio Romo, has been terrific since his acquisition as well. Rookies Zack Littell, Cody Stashak and Ryne Harper have emerged as solid options, and flamethrowing top prospect Brusdar Graterol is making a push for a spot on the postseason roster as well.

That’s not to downplay the loss of Dyson, of course. A healthy Dyson would give the Twins an even more formidable back of the bullpen, which has become a necessity for postseason play given the evolution of pitcher usage (particularly in short series). But the overall state of Baldelli’s relief corps is much stronger than it was even two months ago, with more questions now seemingly focused on the Twins’ sputtering rotation.

Latest On Max Kepler

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  • Twins outfielder Max Kepler has been dealing with left shoulder issues since Sept. 8, when he left a game against Cleveland after swinging awkwardly. The ailing Kepler hasn’t taken an at-bat in almost two weeks (Sept. 14), and it’ll be a little while longer before he does. The breakout 26-year-old is currently planning to make it back “no later than the beginning of a possible postseason series,” Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com writes. The Twins are on the verge of clinching the AL Central, so avoiding the wild-card game will give Kepler a bit of extra time to get ready for a first-round series.
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