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2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday

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Here are the day’s lower-value arbitration deals, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Padres and southpaw Drew Pomeranz have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That’s a near-match with Swartz’s projection of $1.3MM. Acquired in an offseason trade with the A’s, Pomeranz will slot into the San Diego ’pen this season and look to build on last season’s 86 innings of 3.66 ERA, during which he averaged 8.6 K.9 and 3.2 BB/9 to complement a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate.
  • Fernando Salas and the Angels are in agreement on a one-year, $2.4MM deal, thereby avoiding a hearing, per Rosenthal. The 30-year-old Salas, who will be a free agent next winter, posted a 4.24 ERA in 63 2/3 innings this past season but had more encouraging peripherals; Salas averaged 10.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 with a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate, prompting FIP (3.15) xFIP (3.23) and SIERA (2.65) to forecast markedly better results.
  • Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez and the Phillies have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.4MM agreement, Rosenthal tweets. The soon-to-be 28-year-old posted a strong 3.01 ERA with 6.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and also recorded a sound 48.8 percent ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings of relief across 65 appearances. He’ll again provide some valuable innings for the rebuilding Phillies.

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Miguel Sano Hires Roc Nation Sports

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Young Twins slugger Miguel Sano has announced that he’s hired Roc Nation Sports as his new agency. Roc Nation represents several other high-profile baseball players, including Robinson Cano and Yoenis Cespedes.

Sano, 22, had an impressive debut last year for Minnesota after long occupying prime real estate on top-prospect charts. In 335 trips to the plate, he slashed a robust .269/.385/.530 with 18 long balls. While his 119 strikeouts are certainly cause for some concern, and Sano benefited from a sky-high .396 BABIP, there’s no denying his huge talent and remarkable power with the bat.

Of course, Sano accumulated most of those numbers while slotting in as Minnesota’s DH. There’s some uncertainty as to how the team will utilize him moving forward. He has spent most of his minor league career at third base, but all indications are that the towering youngster is going to be tried in the corner outfield for the 2016 season.

Because he was held down for much of last season, Sano is still controllable through 2021 and does not project to qualify for Super Two status. That means he won’t even be arb-eligible until 2019, though if he continues to drive the ball as he has then he could get expensive very quickly once he reaches eligibility.

Roc Nation will presumably focus its initial efforts on marketing the budding star, although it’s not impossible to imagine some extension interest from the Twins coming sooner rather than later. Teams have increasingly broached the concept of long-term arrangements with rather raw and unproven talent over recent years. Of course, such arrangements require motivation on both sides. In this case, Sano still comes with his share of risk. And it’s worth bearing in mind, on the other side of the coin, that he already landed a big bonus as an amateur.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, McDonald, Chen, Indians, Twins

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The Tigers have discussed signing a variety of bats in an effort to bolster their production from left field, including Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Dexter Fowler, reports Jon Heyman (links to Twitter). Detroit has even talked about Chris Davis and Ian Desmond as possible options in left field, Heyman adds. However, there’s also the possibility that the Tigers simply go a more affordable route, adding a platoon bat such as Ryan Raburn to pair with the left-handed-hitting Anthony Gose. (Raburn represents a highly familiar name for Detroit, as he spent parts of seven seasons in a Tigers uniform.) Any additions made by the Tigers will come down to the financial requirements, Heyman notes, as money is a “real question” for the Tigers. Of course, earlier this winter, owner Mike Ilitch flatly told reporters that he “[doesn’t] care about spending money,” so agents may be hoping to pitch directly to Ilitch as opposed to GM Al Avila, who has preached a more measured approach to spending thus far.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press also weighs in on Detroit’s outfield search (Twitter link). Fenech hears that the Tigers would need an impact outfielder to settle for a short-term deal in order for said player to be a realistic option at this point. Raburn, Fenech reports, is indeed in play for the Tigers at this time, however.
  • The Indians have added a pair of recent big leaguers to their player development staff, naming defensive wizard John McDonald their new minor league infield coordinator and lefty Bruce Chen their cultural development coordinator (hat tip: MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, on Twitter). McDonald spent seven seasons playing for the Indians, batting just .229/.268/.305 but playing brilliant defense, as was his calling card over the life of his 16-year career. Chen logged just 6 1/3 innings in an Indians uniform at the end of his career, but the veteran was long praised for his clubhouse demeanor. Chen appeared on the MLBTR Podcast to discuss his retirement as a player last May and was an excellent guest with many fascinating stories for those who are interested.
  • The Royals’ decision to re-sign Alex Gordon is the exact type of move that the Indians should have made (or should still make) this offseason, opines Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Hoynes writes that the Royals have made a statement by exceeding their comfort levels to not only retain Gordon but bring Joakim Soria back into the fold on a three-year contract. Meanwhile, Cleveland has operated on the fringes of the market, adding Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis on one-year deals. Hoynes feels that while ownership has every right to be a bit hesitant after the Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn contracts turned into busts, it’s difficult to construct a team capable of making a deep playoff run with this approach to the offseason. Hoynes argues that Cleveland should be taking advantage of the AL’s top rotation, the league’s second-best bullpen ERA and a markedly improved defense by aggressively pursuing their greatest need: a run-producing outfielder to slot into the middle of the lineup.
  • After years of struggling, the Twins received respectable, albeit unspectacular results from their rotation in 2015 (16th in the Majors in ERA) and now have depth heading into Spring Training, writes MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. Per Bollinger, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes and Tyler Duffey can probably be penciled in for rotation spots. Competing for the fifth spot will be Tommy Milone, Trevor May, Ricky Nolasco and top prospect Jose Berrios. While Berrios isn’t expected to open the year in the Majors, he should debut at some point this season, Bollinger notes. He also adds that returning to the rotation is May’s preference, but his excellence in transitioning to a bullpen role out of necessity last season has manager Paul Molitor leaning toward keeping May in the bullpen. Nolasco is still owed $25MM through 2017 and will have every opportunity to earn a rotation job this spring, but he could end up as a very expensive long reliever as well, Bollinger adds.

AL Central Notes: Indians, Santana, Twins, Park, Gordon

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In an excellent piece for Sports on Earth, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince profiles the Indians’ “dream team” front office from the mid-1990s, which featured eight men that have now occupied (or currently occupy) the title of GM or president of baseball operations. John Hart was the Cleveland GM at the time, but the front office also included assistant GM Dan O’Dowd (who went on to become GM of the Rockies); director of player development Mark Shapiro (former GM and president of the Indians and now president of the Blue Jays); scouting director Josh Byrnes (former GM of the Padres and D-backs); advance scouts Ben Cherington and Paul DePodesta (former GMs of the Red Sox and Dodgers, respectively); assistant director of minor league operations Neal Huntington (current GM of the Pirates); and baseball operations assistant Chris Antonetti, who is of course the current president of baseball ops in Cleveland. Hart and O’Dowd spoke fondly of the group’s explorations of baseball philosophy, and Castrovince explains how O’Dowd and Shapiro wrote a 15-page whitepaper that was pitched to Hart detailing their models of extensions for arbitration-eligible players. While such extensions are commonplace now, the Indians pioneered such extensions in early to mid-90s, allowing them to retain their top talent and emerge as perennial contenders in the American League. Castrovince examines other statistical and technological trends of which the Indians were early adopters and looks at how each now-well-regarded executive got his foot in the door with the Indians.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • The addition of Mike Napoli to the Indians’ roster almost certainly means that Carlos Santana has gone from catcher to first baseman to DH (with a brief, ill-fated stop at third base along the way), writes Cleveland.com’s Zack Meisel. While there’s the possibility that focusing solely on offense could help Santana build his offense back up to its 2011-14 levels, Meisel also notes that the $12MM club option the team holds over Santana for the 2017 season is a steep amount for a club with an eight-figure payroll to pay a designated hitter. Meisel’s implication, of course, is that Santana’s future with the club is somewhat murky. Considering the raises Cleveland will owe Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Jason Kipnis on their guaranteed contracts and also the raises that will be owed to Cody Allen, Lonnie Chisenhall, Bryan Shaw, Trevor Bauer and Zach McAllister in arbitration, a crunch does appear to be coming.
  • Brewers left-hander Will Smith has some fans in the Twins’ front office, says 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson in the first edition of his new podcast (Soundcloud link; Twins talk beginning around 19:30). Nationals right-hander Drew Storen also has some fans among Twins brass, though his projected $8.8MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) could serve to curb the team’s interest. Wolfson also notes that the Twins remain interested in free agent southpaw Antonio Bastardo but still aren’t keen on his three-year, $15-18MM asking price. A Twins official told Wolfson recently that even if the Twins don’t make further moves this winter, they’re happy with what they have, though Wolfson notes that he does expect at least one more move out of the Twins.
  • Twins manager Paul Molitor tells MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger that he’s hopeful that Korean slugger Byung-ho Park will be ready to be his Opening Day designated hitter next season, though Molitor also recognizes that there will be some adjustment as Park transitions to a new league. Molitor notes that Park’s former KBO teammate, Jung Ho Kang, “looked beatable” when he saw him in Spring Training last season but had made enormous adjustments by the time the Twins played the Pirates in the summer. Molitor and the Twins feel that Park can make a similarly quick adjustment. “I think that our scouts understand bat speed, eye-to-hand coordination, pitch recognition abilities, even if velocities and breaking pitches are not Major League quality,” said Molitor in reference to Park’s impressive work in the KBO.
  • Alex Gordon’s desire to come back to the Royals “was a 10,” he told reporters at a press conference yesterday (as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes). Gordon spoke about how appreciative he is of both ownership and the front office for bringing him back to the Royals, although GM Dayton Moore explained that Gordon was always the team’s top priority. “When we went around the table and talked to our scouts, they said, ’Get Alex Gordon,'” said Moore to the media. “”I talked to our analytical guys and they said, ’Get Alex Gordon.’ I talked to our coaching staff and it was, ’Get Alex Gordon.’ Talked to his teammates along the way and it was ’Get Gordo back.’ My momma didn’t raise no dummy. We had to get him back.” According to Moore, things began coming together on New Year’s Eve, and the final details were hammered out over the next few days prior to yesterday’s announcement.

AL Notes: Angels, Freeman, Astros, Vargas

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It was on this day in 1973 that George Steinbrenner and a group of investors purchased the Yankees from CBS.  While the amount of money in the game has unquestionably risen by leaps and bounds in the last 43 years, it’s still stunning to realize that Steinbrenner and company paid only $10MM to buy a team that Forbes now values a whopping $1.85 billion in their most recent ranking of the world’s most valuable sports franchises.  (The Yankees tied with the Dallas Cowboys for third on that list, by the way, behind only soccer giants Manchester United and Real Madrid.)  Here’s some news from around the American League…

  • With the Angels uneasy about surpassing the luxury tax threshold, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez looks at how the club can upgrade itself.  Gonzalez thinks the Halos will move a starter (at least one of Hector Santiago, C.J. Wilson, Tyler Skaggs, Nick Tropeano or Matt Shoemaker) in order to acquire a left fielder or second baseman.  Then again, the Angels may also be comfortable in having Johnny Giavotella return as the regular second baseman so that position may not be as major an area of need.
  • A Craig Gentry/Daniel Nava platoon is currently in the cards for left field, though Gonzalez won’t rule out the idea of Anaheim signing a big name like Justin Upton, Alex Gordon or Yoenis Cespedes.  With the Halos only around $4MM under the tax limit, however, signing any of those players (or even second-tier outfielders like Gerardo Parra or Denard Span) would put the club in danger of exceeding the tax threshold in 2017 as well, and thus paying a bigger penalty.  With a much thinner free agent class in 2016-17, however, Gonzalez believes “this is the time to strike” for the Angels to land a big left field bat, and they’ll have some hope of getting under the tax limit with roughly $48MM coming off the books next winter.
  • An Astros trade for Freddie Freeman is “simply not going to happen,” a source tells ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription-only column).  The Astros and Braves had discussions about the first baseman earlier this winter, though those talks “went nowhere” and Atlanta GM John Coppolella has since flatly denied the possibility of Freeman playing elsewhere in 2016.  While Freeman would check a lot of boxes for Houston, it would clearly take a major trade package to pry him away from the Braves, and the Astros may have already expended a lot of their available prospect capital in their trade for Ken Giles.
  • Bowden’s piece examines all 30 teams and the missing piece (or pieces) Bowden feels they still need to address on their roster.  For instance, Bowden isn’t sold on Rusney Castillo and thinks the Red Sox should make a play for Justin Upton, though he’s heard that the Sox are “not looking to make any more moves.”
  • There were some rumors swirling about the Twins dealing Kennys Vargas to Japan or Korea earlier this winter, though MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger feels it would be a mistake for Minnesota to move Vargas while he still has a minor league option remaining.  Still, Vargas is running out of time to show he belongs on the 25-man roster, especially now that the Twins have signed Byung-ho Park.

Minor League Notes: Melotakis, Golson, Nationals

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The Twins hid lefty reliever Mason Melotakis from other teams during instructional league play, Phil Miller writes for Baseball America (subscription only). The idea was that Melotakis was recovering from Tommy John surgery, and the Twins didn’t want scouts from other teams to see him before the Rule 5 Draft. “We’ve got a lot of fields down there. There’s always an empty one,” says Twins vice president for player personnel Mike Radcliff. As it turned out, Melotakis looked so good this fall (throwing in the mid-90s) that the Twins decided not to take the risk of losing him, and they added him to their 40-man roster. “We’re not projecting what his stuff might be—we saw it, we know it’s back. He’s going to be a major leaguer very soon,” says Radcliff. Here’s more on baseball outside the Majors.

  • Former Phillies first-round pick Greg Golson writes for Baseball America that he’s not yet ready to give up the game. Since playing independent ball in the US in 2014, the 30-year-old Golson has played in Mexico, both in the last two winters and in the 2015 regular season. Golson writes that, after initially struggling to adjust to a new culture and to strike zones in Mexico, he settled in and began to enjoy playing in an environment in which his team was focused on winning, rather than on developing players for the Majors. “Not to knock the minor leagues or affiliated ball, but there is a focus on development there that takes away from the game,” Golson writes. “I fell in love with the game again because I was put in a position where the only thing that mattered was winning.”
  • Tyler Maun of MiLB.com’s look at the Nationals’ farm system features plenty of tidbits from Nats director of player development Mark Scialabba. As one might expect, Scialabba sounds particularly high on top prospects Lucas Giolito and Trea Turner. Of Giolito, Scialabba says, “He’s improving his fastball command. It’s getting to the point now where he has a lot of confidence in using the fastball to different parts of the strike zone. … He continues to work on the little things like holding runners and fielding his position.” Scialabba also praises 18-year-old outfielder Victor Robles, a Dominican who hit .352/.445/.507 in an outstanding first season in the US in 2015. “Just overall, his natural instincts as a baseball player [stand out],” says Scialabba. “There are great athletes that are very raw, that don’t have those sorts of baseball instincts at a young age, but he has a little bit of everything.”

AL Notes: Rays, Orioles, Twins

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On December 16th, the Orioles agreed to sign Korean outfielder Hyun-soo Kim to a two-year, $7MM deal.  However, the pact wasn’t officially announced until one week later on December 23rd.  The culprit? – the Orioles’ notoriously thorough physical.  Luckily for both sides, however, Kim was never in any real danger of not passing the exam.

Here’s a look at the American League, including some discussion on what the O’s might do next:

  • In a recent mailbag, a reader asked Bill Chastain of MLB.com if Rene Rivera will still be in the Rays’ plans for the 2016 season.  Rivera had a disappointing first season at the plate in Tampa Bay after coming over via trade, but the Rays are hopeful that he can turn that around while maintaining his solid defense.  The Rays could keep Rivera, Curt Casali, and Hank Conger in ’16, or they might opt to trade one of the three to clear out the surplus.  Keeping all three wouldn’t be a crazy notion as Casali and Conger can provide offense where Rivera cannot.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com wonders where the Orioles’ next left-handed hitter will come from.  Chris Davis, of course, would satisfy that need, but Baltimore has made it clear that it will not wait around for him.  Other alternatives could include signing a left-handed DH like Pedro Alvarez or really opening up the checkbook to ink Alex Gordon.  Meanwhile, the O’s are also expected to take a peek at the available second-tier starters.
  • The Twins were on a mission to keep Mason Melotakis’ recovery under wraps in an effort to keep him away from interested teams in the Rule 5 draft, as Phil Miller writes for Baseball America (sub. req’d).  Ultimately, however, the Twins put him on the 40-man roster rather than risk losing him.

AL Central Notes: Frazier, Salazar, Allen, White Sox, Twins

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The Reds spent “at least a month” trying to pry Danny Salazar from the Indians for Todd Frazier with no luck, and were also unsuccessful with their next demand of Cody Allen and prospects for Frazier, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports in his chronicle of the negotiations between the two Ohio clubs.  Cleveland wanted to keep Salazar and Allen in order to contend in 2016 so the Indians were more open to talking about Jose Ramirez and second-tier prospects (Justus Sheffield, Michael Clevinger, Bobby Bradley) with the Reds.  Cincinnati, however, wanted two of those prospects plus one of Clint Frazier or Bradley Zimmer, and the Tribe was unwilling to give up either of its top two minor leaguers.  The Indians attempted to construct a three-way deal to land Frazier from Cincinnati but the Reds instead ended up swinging a three-team trade of their own with the White Sox and Dodgers that sent the third baseman to Chicago.

Here’s more from around the AL Central…

  • Also from Pluto’s piece, he hears the acquisitions of Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli may be the Indians’ last notable moves of the winter.  The club may still make a minor transaction or two but their heavy lifting could be over.
  • The White Sox are monitoring the free agent outfield market and giving up a draft pick to sign a qualifying offer free agent “won’t necessarily be a deal-breaker,” ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required).  Chicago’s first-rounder is protected by virtue of being a top-10 pick, so if they were to sign someone like Justin Upton or Dexter Fowler, the Sox would only sacrifice the extra compensation round pick they recently obtained when Jeff Samardzija left to sign with San Francisco.  As Olney notes, the White Sox are intent on being contenders while cornerstone pieces like Chris Sale and Jose Abreu are on such reasonable contracts.
  • The Twins are looking for a veteran backup outfielder, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger writes.  This player would essentially replace Shane Robinson on Minnesota’s roster, serving as an experienced bench piece behind the Twins’ young outfield corps.
  • It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for the World Series champions thus far, though Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star feels the Royals front office has earned the benefit of the doubt given its recent success.  Expecting the Royals to suddenly splurge above their usual payroll limits was unrealistic, Mellinger notes, as the club needs “efficient spending” to remain competitive in both the short- and long-term.  It’s worth noting that the Royals signed Joakim Soria and Chris Young to multi-year contracts and they’ve been at least connected to several major free agents and trade targets (such as Alex Gordon, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gonzalez and Frazier), so K.C. could simply be waiting to strike with another notable move.

Cafardo On Victorino, Cahill, Cubs

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with managing general partner of Sapient Global Markets Dave Donovan, who is trying to apply banking principles to baseball in order to help limit risk on the part of teams.

“Because there’s such an emphasis by teams on acquiring the right players, especially now where you have financial constraints with luxury taxes, etc., we’re looking at it the same way as we do with banks,” Donovan said. “Banks want to make as much money as they possibly can. Their constraint is regulation. They have stress tests they have to do for the government after banks almost took down the world because they weren’t financially compliant. We’ve been working with these banks to measure their risks and you can apply the same concepts in sports…Your roster is no different than a portfolio of securities. Those are your assets. That’s what you’ve put your investment in, so it only makes sense that you should monitor your assets”

When considering risk management, Cafardo wonders aloud if the Red Sox’s decision to sign David Price to a seven-year, $217MM was a prudent one.  Cafardo speculates that the hedge fund operator in owner John Henry probably wasn’t thrilled about the move.  However, in the short-term, he knew that Boston needed an ace pitcher.

Here’s more from today’s column:

  • Shane Victorino’s agent, John Boggs, said a couple of teams have shown interest in his client, but no deal is imminent at this time.  Boggs added that the veteran is looking to sign a one-year deal in order to re-establish his value.  The Flyin’ Hawaiian hit just .230/.308/.292 in 2015 in 204 combined plate appearances for the Red Sox and Angels.  Still, he’s only two years removed from his 2013 campaign in which he slashed .294/.351/.451 with 15 homers for Boston.  Victorino, who plans on getting back to switch-hitting, celebrated his 35th birthday in late November.
  • Right-hander Trevor Cahill had an opportunity to sign with the Pirates or Orioles as a starting pitcher, Cafardo writes.  However, he opted to stay with the Cubs where he will be used in a relief role.  Cahill’s clear preference was to start again, but he also didn’t want to leave Chicago.  Cahill gave the Cubs 17 brilliant innings of relief down the stretch, yielding just four runs and recording an outstanding 22-to-5 K/BB ratio to go along with a ground-ball rate of 61.8 percent. He also pitched 5 1/3 innings in the postseason, allowing two runs on seven hits and no walks with eight strikeouts (3.38 ERA).
  • Ron Gardenhire lost out on the Padres’ job but “the feeling” is that he could always go back to the Twins organization and work in some capacity.  However, Gardenhire’s preference would be to manage for a major league team again.  Gardenhire has extensive postseason experience from his time with the Twins, having led the club to six AL Central Division titles in 13 seasons and also bringing the team to a Game 163 tiebreaker that was lost to the White Sox in 2008. However he also has a disappointing 6-21 record in the playoffs, having only captured one series victory (against the A’s in 2002).
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