This week's mailbag gets into the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, the Reds trading Nick Lodolo for a big bat this winter, Bo Bichette's contract, and offseason approaches for the Rays and Mets.
NE asks:
Do the Cubs and Kyle Tucker have any interest in an extension?
Tucker came out of the gates with a 157 wRC+ in 370 plate appearances through June. That performance put him basically in a dead heat with fellow All-Star starter Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani with 4 WAR, at which point all three players were in the NL MVP race.
Tucker jammed his right ring finger on a June 1st slide. He continued to play well, but later revealed that "a week or two after that" x-rays found a hairline fracture. The narrative around the injury remains confusing.
Tucker posted a 173 wRC+ in June, the best month of his season. He homered on June 28th as part of a four-hit game. Then he went on to hit just one home run over his next 172 PA. So the idea is that Tucker played through this injury but it only began to sap his power four weeks later, perhaps due to some mechanical change to his swing.
By mid-August, Tucker was throwing his helmet, slamming his bat, failing to run out grounders, and getting booed by Cubs fans. On August 18th, Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced the plan to give Tucker a mental reset on the bench. The following day, Brewers manager Pat Murphy went on 670 The Score and said, "I think Tucker is hurt. I don't have any information, but Tucker's not the same. He's hurt, and he's playing through it. He's such a class kid that he probably doesn't mention it to anyone."
Murphy's comments caused the Cubs to fess up to Tucker playing through the hairline fracture. It was just a very odd way for this to all go down: the injury that didn't manifest itself for four weeks, and the reveal coming from a rival team's manager who either made a really good guess or actually did have some information.
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Senga
Manaea
Peterson
Megill
Holmes
McLean
Tong
Sproat
C Scott
Might not need any SP in free agency. Guaranteed contract is not suitable for this mix. Montas is already a $17 million salary for nothing in 2026.
Aloha folks, I think the Cubs need to let Tucker go. He doesn’t profile well in Wrigley, his splits are crazy between home and away and that was before the big long slump. It’s nothing against him but at this point the organization isn’t moving or making a dome park. Not worth spending huge money on someone that may be injury prone, profiles as a future dh and mainly produces on the road. I wish him well, places like Boston, LA and was seen in Anaheim are much better for him. The fo needs to take the QO comp pick and move on. Besides, it’s been very refreshing to watch Caissie play, when CC gives him the opportunity. Mahalo
It would be nice to see him stay in Toronto where he started he’s been a big part of their offense and defense. Toronto just put out a big paycheck for Junior and you don’t see them digging that deep very often 200 and how many years? Big decision,decision,decisions.
I can’t understand how people value. Tucker so highly. He’s a very good all around outfielder, but he has never had a GREAT season, 5.5 WAR is his best mark, never hit more than thirty home runs, has one season in which he finished fifth in MVP voting, two others in the top twenty. He’s not Judge, Ohtani, or even Soto. Considering that a half a billion dollars still can by a number of really good ballplayers what are people thinking/talking about?
@Doubter: Because, to a certain kind of unsophisticated fan, Tucker LOOKS the part. He poses and struts, and carries himself in a haughty sort of way, and people are fooled. Also, he cadges walks from the umpire just often enough to impress fans who erroneously think that is as good as a hit.
Or, it could be that he’s put up the 4th most fWAR among all outfielders over the last five seasons behind Judge, Soto, and Betts. I mean it’s probably that over how he “poses and struts.”
Also, nobody thinks that, “a walk is as good as a hit.” That’s a fake argument by people who don’t understand analytics. If they even take a cursory glance at the statistical analysis they claim to condemn they’d clearly see how walks have less value than a hit in every metric.
lol “unsophisticated”. Everyone step aside, the smartest person in the room wants to talk! He can explain everything to us dummies!
Well, Mule, they DON’T even take a cursory glance at thr statistical analyses.
And as for Tucker’s fWAR over the last five seasons, it’s not helping us now.
Let’s consider wOBA, the formula which calculates a player’s offensive contribution under fWAR.
Let’s look at the weighting of events within the formula:
BB: 0.69
1B: 0.89
So each time a player gets a single it contributes more to their wOBA which contributes more to their fWAR. So again, nobody thinks, “a walk is a good as a hit.” And yes, we do look at the stats.
Now, as for the statement about Tucker’s fWAR, all you’re saying is he might not be as a good in the future as he as been consistently over the past five seasons. Of course, we can say that about any player, and given the nature of regression we will be right most times. But the best indicator of future performance is past results. Teams have to spend their money somewhere and they’re going to spend it on guys who consistently overperform.
So AstroMule, you’re trying to argue that Tucker is the fourth best outfielder over the past five years. OK, just that his best year is the same as what Judge accomplished in 102 games in a injury stifled year. And you think that he’s a superstar?!. You need to stick to your fantasy leagues son.
Yankee Doubter: First off, I stated an objective fact. That fact is by fWAR Tucker has been the fourth best outfielder. This is not an “argument.” Secondly, fWAR is a cumulative stat. If you knew that you wouldn’t make the Judge comment. Thirdly, I never called Tucker a “superstar.” I get that it’s easy to win arguments when you put words in other people’s mouths but it’s a tad tiresome to people who just want to have honest discussions instead of dealing this nonsense.
Finally, I’m not your son. I’m guessing no one is.
Son, fWAR is not an “established fact”, it’s a highly debated metric. Metric and reality are not necessarily the same thing. And the Judge comment stands. By your own logic what Judge accomplished in 102 was cumulatively the same as Tucker’s best season.I posited that your boy wasn’t worth a half billion dollars. For you to jump into the thread and argue Tucker is worth that kind of money then you are logically if not in wordplay calling him a “superstar”. Tucker is a very good player, not a ” Great” player as you argue. Capisce?
Sweet loving goodness. I didn’t say that fWAR wasn’t in debate. What I said was “Kyle Tucker is ranked 4th in fWAR among all outfielders over the past five seasons.” This is what we call a fact. Regardless of what you or I think of fWAR he is ranked fourth. I’m feeling a lot of irony describing simple ideas I learned in grade school to a man who called me son.
I never said that Kyle Tucker was worth Aaron Judge money. Again, you only seem to be able to argue with yourself here. I never even said Tucker was great so it’s odd you pretend quote me on that. Any other arguments you’re having with yourself that you want to project onto me? Or can I enjoy my evening with normal people who have reading comprehension?
Oh and as a final goodbye, why on earth do you think I care about your arbitrary distinction between a good and great player?
You must be used to dealing with very young people that you can impress with wordplay. YOU are the one who jumped into the thread trying to belittle others regarding their lack of understanding of metrics. What I stated, follow me here, is that Tucker isn’t worth a half billion dollars. Let me emphasize that YOU jumped into a conversation that Alan53 and I were having about Tucker. It’s all there, you came looking to troll and you brought nothing. You lost the argument, this time. Try me again when you actually have more than your word-twisting gambit. I look forward to it.
Aloha Yankee, thank you soooo much for your comment! I have said to my Cub friends it’s nothing against Tucker but he doesn’t profile well in one of the hardest parks to hit in all of baseball! I like him, he’s very good but as you said, he’s not Judge, Soto and Vlad Jr is almost 4yrs younger. His defense has regressed this year, I suspect playing in the real elements of Wrigley as opposed to the controlled environment his previous 7 seasons. He’d probably hit well in Boston and LA and ends up a future dh. Not worth paying him $350, $400, $500mil to play at Wrigley where half the season he struggles at home and tries to make it up on the road. I know I’m being dramatic there but you get point. Soto changed from SD to NYY and had I believe a 6.9 WAR campaign leading into his free agency. Tucker will be lucky to hit 5.0. And what Cub fan could have predicted at the beginning of the season that both PCA and Nico would be ahead of Tucker in WAR? Lastly, I don’t understand Craig C the highest paid manager in all of baseball. He sat Tucker down for only 2 days, 3 games at Wrigley and Caissie lit the Brewers up with help from Shaw and others. The 5th and last game in the series, Craig C takes out both Caissie and Shaw, Cubs lose, Tucker went 0-4. But hey, that’s why they get paid the big bucks. Take care now. Mahalo!
Profiles as a future DH. Do tell.
Aloha Cubs, you know it always comes down to basic economic principles. A team may want something, but what will they have to give up? People have somehow gotten the idea that because Ohtani and Soto that the whole market will be pulled up. This will prove to be a fallacy. Ohtani and Soto are unicorns. Ohtani because of all the Japanese merch and the structure of the contract, Soto because the Mets have an insanely rich NEW OWNER who is trying to dethrone the Yankees in the NYC market. Something tells me that he is already doubting himself. And realistically, how many teams will play in that playground? I could of course be wrong, it wouldn’t be the first time…
Tucker was good for exactly 2 games, and now he’s flailing at the plate again. Let somebody else overpay, Cubs.
Hard to imagine a GM falling for that bs. I think some believe that somehow Soto and Ohtani’s crazy overpays will drag Tucker’s salary up, up,up. But stocks and real estate doesn’t work that way, and paying Tucker that kind of money would lead to an out of work GM in 2-3 years.
Cubs had an opportunity this year, but keep falling on their face. The lie about the injury is one thing (I agree with the writer–it only affected him a month later?), then not going after much-needed pitching at the trade deadline; when an opposing manager forces you to share information, that is an absolute embarrassment. It’s like the Lee Elia school of general management.