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Twins Rumors

Reds Acquire Lohse, Cormier

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2006 at 10:58am CDT

Wayne Krivsky did some tinkering this morning, picking up Kyle Lohse and Rheal Cormier in separate trades.

Lohse, 27, was demoted on May 17th.  After four solid efforts in Rochester, he was recalled and used in middle relief.  Maybe, just maybe, he can get by as a fifth starter in the NL. 

The aggregate line of all the hitters Lohse has faced this year is .269/.334/.426 (.760 OPS).  In comparison, Bronson Arroyo’s batters faced have managed an aggregate .756 OPS and Aaron Harang’s competition is at .754.  So it’s not like the NL Central is that much easier than the AL Central based on quality of batters faced.

Cormier has posted a 1.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season in 34 innings for the Phils.  I’m surprised Krivsky didn’t give up Homer Bailey to get him.  One note about Cormier is that he has not been used in high leverage situations this year.  Baseball Prospectus ranks him fifth in leverage on his own team.  Among pitchers who haven’t started or closed this year, Scott Linebrink leads in leverage.  He’s followed by Scot Shields, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Wise, Duaner Sanchez, and Roberto Hernandez. 

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Latest Carlos Lee Trade Rumors

By Tim Dierkes | July 28, 2006 at 9:39am CDT

Doug Melvin, who I think is one of the game’s better GMs, is currently fielding offers for Carlos Lee.  According to Ken Rosenthal, Melvin recently offered a four-year, $48MM contract to the slugger, which was immediately rejected.

A source close to Lee tells me that he had planned to come to Chicago on yesterday’s off-day (he owns a house there), but was instructed by his agent and Milwaukee management to sit tight in because he’s close to being traded.  Lee mentioned that the Cubs are his number one choice in the offseason.   

ESPN’s Jayson Stark indicated that the Twins are definitely an interested party.  The Twins have plenty of young pitching depth, so the teams could definitely match up if Terry Ryan is willing.  The Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners could also come into play.

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Trade History: The Pierzynski Deal

By Tim Dierkes | July 20, 2006 at 12:15pm CDT

November 14th, 2003.  A day that will forever haunt Giants fans.  On that day, Brian Sabean dealt Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski and cash.  A year later, the Giants would release Pierzynski.  Bonser may become a tolerable fifth starter in the bigs, while Liriano and Nathan are among the very best starters and closers in baseball, respectively.

Hindsight is 20/20, right?  It's easy to rip on Sabean several years later.  But was this like the Austin Kearns trade, where Wayne Krivsky was derided from the get-go?  Or did the Pierzynski deal seem OK at the time?  Let's view this in context.

The 2003 San Francisco Giants used a combination of Benito Santiago and Yorvit Torrealba at catcher.  The result was a batting line of .270/.320/.412.  The average NL catcher hit .260/.328/.404 in '03, so Santiago/Torrealba was tolerable.  The club won 100 games and the NL West.  However, they lost in the Division Series to the Marlins, who would of course go on to win the World Series.

The Giants traded for Pierzynski in November of '03, and Torrealba would remain with the Giants in '04 as his backup.  Santiago signed with the Royals that winter for two years and $4.3MM.  He would turn 39 before the season began.  Santiago popped up in the BALCO case in March of '04 but seemed unfazed.  A broken hand from a hit-by-pitch knocked him out in late June, and he didn't play for the Royals again.

Pierzynski was coming off a .312/.360/.464 season for the Twins, his best ever at age 26.  He was the sixth-best hitting catcher in the game in 2003.  His salary was due to rise several million dollars in arbitration and Joe Mauer was ready to go, so Terry Ryan explored his trade opportunities.  A deal to the Cubs for Andy Sisco was mentioned, and the Padres expressed interest too.  Ultimately A.J. became a Giant and slumped to .272/.318/.410, an offensive line that ranked 18th among backstops.

Brett Tomko called Pierzynski a "cancer" in May of '04, calling for Yorvit Torrealba to take over.  The Giants still considered a multiyear deal after the season, but then decided to go with Mike Matheny and let A.J. go.

Bonser was ranked 29th on Baseball America's 2002 Top Prospects list, right behind Jake Peavy.  A year later Rich Harden would earn the 29th spot, and Ervin Santana got the honors in '04.  Bonser never made another list.  In '03, he posted a 4.00 ERA in 135 Double A innings at age 21.  Bonser now projects as a fifth starter with the Twins.

Liriano was ranked 83rd on BA's 2003 list, ahead of Taylor Buchholz and Wily Mo Pena but behind bums like Ben Kozlowski, Chris Gruler, Kris Honel, and Josh Karp.  Liriano was outranked on the list by teammates Jesse Foppert (4th), Jerome Williams (50th), Kurt Ainsworth (64th), and Todd Linden (82nd).  Shoulder injuries limited Liriano to just nine innings in 2003.  It was clear he had potential, but Liriano was anything but a lock.  Just another in a long line of hard-throwing pitching prospects.

Joe Nathan never made an appearance on a Baseball America top prospects list.  Drafted in 1995 in the sixth round, Nathan reached the Majors at age 24 in 1999.  He made 14 starts for the Giants and had ugly marks in home runs allowed, free passes, and strikeout rate.  Many teams approached Sabean about Nathan in the winter of '99-'00, but he was regarded as untouchable. 

Nathan started working on a changeup in 2000 while making 15 starts for the Giants.  His numbers were even worse, as walks increased.  He spent time on the DL with shoulder tightness that summer, but Dusty Baker made sure to get him right back out there ASAP.  His shoulder caused a second DL stint in July.  Surgery was considered, but Nathan ultimately took a cortisone shot and resumed pitching.  The injury recurred a third time, causing Nathan to sit out the playoffs.  Way to go, Dusty!  Nathan had shoulder surgery in October of that year.

His velocity down to the mid-80s in '01, Nathan toiled in Triple A until June before earning a demotion to Double A.  Things improved a bit before the end of the season, and he was in the low 90s by the spring of '02.  He pitched poorly that year in Triple A but got a September call-up anyway.

In the spring of '03, Nathan finally gave up starting and managed to earn a job with the Giants as a setup man for Tim Worrell out of spring training.  He started the season with a 22 inning scoreless inning streak.  After winning 12 games and posting a 2.96 ERA in 79 innings in his first season as a reliever, he became a major component of the Pierzynski trade.

At the time, here's how I think each player was evaluated:

Liriano: interesting raw prospect with major injury concerns
Bonser: impressive young starting pitching prospect whose stock fell a bit in '03
Nathan: converted starter coming off his best season; history of shoulder problems
Pierzynski: one of the game's best-hitting catchers entering his prime with several seasons before free agency

Pierzynski was a coveted young backstop, and Sabean really only gave up one bona fide Major Leaguer to get him.  Back in November of 2003, this looked like a deal that would benefit both teams.  Liriano and Nathan could've easily been lost to the injury abyss and we wouldn't be talking about this.

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Trade History: The Pierzynski Deal

By Tim Dierkes | July 20, 2006 at 12:15pm CDT

November 14th, 2003.  A day that will forever haunt Giants fans.  On that day, Brian Sabean dealt Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski and cash.  A year later, the Giants would release Pierzynski.  Bonser may become a tolerable fifth starter in the bigs, while Liriano and Nathan are among the very best starters and closers in baseball, respectively.

Hindsight is 20/20, right?  It’s easy to rip on Sabean several years later.  But was this like the Austin Kearns trade, where Wayne Krivsky was derided from the get-go?  Or did the Pierzynski deal seem OK at the time?  Let’s view this in context.

The 2003 San Francisco Giants used a combination of Benito Santiago and Yorvit Torrealba at catcher.  The result was a batting line of .270/.320/.412.  The average NL catcher hit .260/.328/.404 in ’03, so Santiago/Torrealba was tolerable.  The club won 100 games and the NL West.  However, they lost in the Division Series to the Marlins, who would of course go on to win the World Series.

The Giants traded for Pierzynski in November of ’03, and Torrealba would remain with the Giants in ’04 as his backup.  Santiago signed with the Royals that winter for two years and $4.3MM.  He would turn 39 before the season began.  Santiago popped up in the BALCO case in March of ’04 but seemed unfazed.  A broken hand from a hit-by-pitch knocked him out in late June, and he didn’t play for the Royals again.

Pierzynski was coming off a .312/.360/.464 season for the Twins, his best ever at age 26.  He was the sixth-best hitting catcher in the game in 2003.  His salary was due to rise several million dollars in arbitration and Joe Mauer was ready to go, so Terry Ryan explored his trade opportunities.  A deal to the Cubs for Andy Sisco was mentioned, and the Padres expressed interest too.  Ultimately A.J. became a Giant and slumped to .272/.318/.410, an offensive line that ranked 18th among backstops.

Brett Tomko called Pierzynski a "cancer" in May of ’04, calling for Yorvit Torrealba to take over.  The Giants still considered a multiyear deal after the season, but then decided to go with Mike Matheny and let A.J. go.

Bonser was ranked 29th on Baseball America’s 2002 Top Prospects list, right behind Jake Peavy.  A year later Rich Harden would earn the 29th spot, and Ervin Santana got the honors in ’04.  Bonser never made another list.  In ’03, he posted a 4.00 ERA in 135 Double A innings at age 21.  Bonser now projects as a fifth starter with the Twins.

Liriano was ranked 83rd on BA’s 2003 list, ahead of Taylor Buchholz and Wily Mo Pena but behind bums like Ben Kozlowski, Chris Gruler, Kris Honel, and Josh Karp.  Liriano was outranked on the list by teammates Jesse Foppert (4th), Jerome Williams (50th), Kurt Ainsworth (64th), and Todd Linden (82nd).  Shoulder injuries limited Liriano to just nine innings in 2003.  It was clear he had potential, but Liriano was anything but a lock.  Just another in a long line of hard-throwing pitching prospects.

Joe Nathan never made an appearance on a Baseball America top prospects list.  Drafted in 1995 in the sixth round, Nathan reached the Majors at age 24 in 1999.  He made 14 starts for the Giants and had ugly marks in home runs allowed, free passes, and strikeout rate.  Many teams approached Sabean about Nathan in the winter of ’99-’00, but he was regarded as untouchable. 

Nathan started working on a changeup in 2000 while making 15 starts for the Giants.  His numbers were even worse, as walks increased.  He spent time on the DL with shoulder tightness that summer, but Dusty Baker made sure to get him right back out there ASAP.  His shoulder caused a second DL stint in July.  Surgery was considered, but Nathan ultimately took a cortisone shot and resumed pitching.  The injury recurred a third time, causing Nathan to sit out the playoffs.  Way to go, Dusty!  Nathan had shoulder surgery in October of that year.

His velocity down to the mid-80s in ’01, Nathan toiled in Triple A until June before earning a demotion to Double A.  Things improved a bit before the end of the season, and he was in the low 90s by the spring of ’02.  He pitched poorly that year in Triple A but got a September call-up anyway.

In the spring of ’03, Nathan finally gave up starting and managed to earn a job with the Giants as a setup man for Tim Worrell out of spring training.  He started the season with a 22 inning scoreless inning streak.  After winning 12 games and posting a 2.96 ERA in 79 innings in his first season as a reliever, he became a major component of the Pierzynski trade.

At the time, here’s how I think each player was evaluated:

Liriano: interesting raw prospect with major injury concerns
Bonser: impressive young starting pitching prospect whose stock fell a bit in ’03
Nathan: converted starter coming off his best season; history of shoulder problems
Pierzynski: one of the game’s best-hitting catchers entering his prime with several seasons before free agency

Pierzynski was a coveted young backstop, and Sabean really only gave up one bona fide Major Leaguer to get him.  Back in November of 2003, this looked like a deal that would benefit both teams.  Liriano and Nathan could’ve easily been lost to the injury abyss and we wouldn’t be talking about this.

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Shea Hillenbrand Designated

By Tim Dierkes | July 20, 2006 at 8:58am CDT

According to a Blue Jays source of mine, this is how the Shea Hillenbrand designation went down:

"It seems Hillenbrand and a few (word is two) of his teammates were being
mischievious during yesterday’s workout. Gibbons stormed in the clubhouse
like an old den-mother and demanded the pranksters reveal themselves.

Just Hillenbrand stepped forward.

Gibbons blew a gasket. Everyone’s face hung open.

Gibb told Hill to take a shower and leave (on his first day back from adopting
a kid).

As the team left for the field, Hill still suited-up and paced in the
clubhouse, not knowing what to do.

Until an in-house courier hand delivered his walking papers.

He then left."

Alright, this is Tim talking again.  It seems that Hillenbrand’s mischief involved writing "This is a sinking ship" on a chalkboard in the clubhouse.  Good times.

The Padres, Twins, Rangers, and Angels have been connected to Hillenbrand at one time or another.  While the Pads are the concensus favorite, keep in mind that Kevin Towers and J.P. Ricciardi have never completed a trade with one another before.  (As far as I can tell).  But hey, there’s a first time for everything.

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Olney: Cards Considering Stewart/Hunter

By Tim Dierkes | May 9, 2006 at 8:47pm CDT

I haven’t addressed the Cardinal outfield situation since March 5th.  Since then, many things have changed:

Kevin Mench is hitting .300/.328/.591 with 9 home runs.  He’s been driving in a lot of runs as the Rangers’ sixth place hitter.  What’s more, Jason Marquis has stunk it up (6.00 ERA) and John Koronka came out of nowhere to toss four quality starts in seven tries.  Can’t see any kind of Mench for Marquis swap now.

Also, Jim Edmonds is hitting .240/.333/.417, and Will Carroll thinks he may have to shut it down for a while to get completely right again.

Toss in a strained elbow for Sidney Ponson (who has a 2.81 ERA) and a sore back for Mark Mulder, and the Cardinals can’t afford to deal a starting pitcher right now.

The need for an outfielder persists.  So Taguchi isn’t hitting.  Larry Bigbie was activated yesterday, and he deserves a shot.  According to Cardinals Diaspora, a recent Buster Olney report indicates interest from Walt Jocketty in Torii Hunter or Shannon Stewart.  As noted in the post, Stewart is more their style.  He makes $6.5MM this year and is off to a .295/.352/.384 start.  PECOTA expects his age 32 season to finish around .272/.335/.406.  Is that really any better than the .264/.334/.423 season projected for Bigbie?

The Craig Wilson option remains a viable one, and Luis Gonzalez’s .832 OPS ain’t bad.  Cards fans dream of Miguel Cabrera, but Dontrelle Willis seems more likely to be dealt this summer.  Haven’t seen any smoke on that one for a while, though the Cards did show interest.  Anthony Reyes remains the best trading chip, as he has a 3.62 ERA and 35/5 K/BB ratio at Triple A.  About a week ago, Viva El Birdos noted some interesting developments surrounding a Reyes start.

A few more possibilities, based on my own speculation: Eric Hinske, Reggie Sanders, Alfonso Soriano, Emil Brown, Brady Clark, Jose Cruz Jr., Matt Lawton, David Dellucci, and Victor Diaz.

If I were GM?  I’d probably start with Lawton but see what it would take to get Reggie back.

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The Torii Hunter Situation

By Tim Dierkes | April 6, 2006 at 10:53am CDT

I noticed in the Star Tribune yesterday that Torii Hunter, the Twins’ highest paid player, "has expressed doubts the team will pick up his $12MM option for 2007."  The Twins have the option of buying the option out for $2MM. 

Hunter is, of course, only the highest-paid Twin in 2006 because the club backloaded Johan Santana’s four-year deal.  Santana will make $9MM in ’06, $12MM in ’07, and $13.25MM in ’08.  Without doing any research whatsoever, I’m guessing the last two years of Santana’s deal will be Twins records for salaries.

Tough to say whether the Twins will keep Hunter around for $12MM or pay $2MM to be off the hook.  Will Hunter be worth that much money when he enters his age 31 season in 2007?  Baseball Prospectus says no, valuing him at just $4,575,000 for that year.  In fact, they think he’s only going to be worth $12MM for all of 2006-10. 

However, their numbers don’t really take into account the center fielder market for the 2006-07 offseason.  Jim Edmonds will be available if Walt Jocketty chooses his $3MM buyout over his $10MM salary (doubtful, since Edmonds actually will be worth ten mil in ’07).  Mike Cameron would be available if the Padres buy out his $7MM option.  Juan Pierre, Kenny Lofton, Preston Wilson (three-year club option), Jay Payton, and Dave Roberts can all be free agents if they aren’t signed to extensions.

Edmonds and Pierre figure to be out of the Twins’ range, so if they let Hunter go they’ll probably go for a second-tier option like Payton or Roberts.  Which, in my opinion, would actually be the ideal move.

With their pitching staff and some mild offensive upgrades, the Twins are unlikely to fall out of contention before the trading deadline.  So I would imagine that Hunter stays put.  Terry Ryan does have some salary dumps to his credit: Rick Aguilera, Scott Erickson, and Kevin Tapani in 1995, Dave Hollins in 1996 (for David Ortiz!), and Roberto Kelly in 1997.  (Source: Will Young at Baseball Think Factory).

The salary dumps, however, were before the Twins started competing.  Ryan would probably be killed by Twins fans if the team is in the hunt this summer and he trades Hunter for prospects.  Still, a desperate Bill Stoneman or Jim Bowden could make Ryan an offer he can’t refuse.  It’s a longshot, but I can envision a scenario in which Darin Erstad gets hurt and the team doesn’t want to throw Chone Figgins or Juan Rivera out there.       

Today at DailyBaseballPicks

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Who Could Use Melvin Mora?

By Tim Dierkes | March 31, 2006 at 10:13am CDT

Melvin Mora is still a pretty good third baseman, tied for tenth best in baseball in 2005 according to WARP.  He enters his age 34 season with free agency looming.  Mora set a deadline for today for the Orioles to work out a contract extension with him, but Orioles VP Jim Duquette is pretty much ignoring that.  Reports say Mora wants $10MM annually, but there is no indication on a number of years.

Mora will make just $4MM in 2006, and he should be worth about twice that.  He can only hope he ages like Jeff Kent, one of his top comparables according to Baseball Prospectus.  Kent, so far, has been quite productive during his age 34-37 seasons, hitting .298/.362/.531 over 576 games.  That included 115 HRs.

I wouldn’t say the Orioles and Mora’s agent are at an impasse yet, but one can at least envision a scenario in which Mora is placed on the trading block between now and July 31st.  If the Orioles don’t want to hang on to him, they’d be wise to try to get some value before he leaves.

Here’s a rundown of teams that have questions at third base and could be looking reinforcements at some point.  While it’s true that Mora is capable of playing outfield, we’ll stick to the hot corner.

Red Sox:  They have the depth to cover a complete Mike Lowell collapse.  But if the team wants to upgrade from Youkilis/Choi at the corners, Mora would add dependability.  Of course, we all know that deals between division rivals are rare.

Twins:  Michael Cuddyer still might be ready for Opening Day despite a strained oblique.  He’s the fallback option for Tony Batista, assuming Jason Kubel and/or Lew Ford can handle right field.  Batista isn’t off to a great start this year and he’s anything but a lock.  Mora’s affordable salary would be attractive to Terry Ryan, though he’d have to part with some young pitching to him.

Braves:  Moving Chipper Jones to first and acquiring Mora for third base would be a huge net gain for the Braves’ offense and defense.  It would also help keep Chipper healthy.  I don’t see it happening, but it’s worth noting.

Phillies:  The Phils could really, really use a solid third baseman right now.  The hot corner is easily the offense’s weak spot.  There have been whispers that David Bell is mulling over retirement, according to Will Carroll.

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Twins Trade Brewing?

By Tim Dierkes | March 30, 2006 at 10:35am CDT

Some message boards are abuzz with the possibility of a significant Twins trade on the horizon.  I’ve tried to dig up something concrete for you, but I’ve come up empty so far.

I do know that Terry Ryan has hinted recently that a deal is possible but wouldn’t elaborate.  Speculation is that the Twins would try to shore up the left side of their infield, possibly by dealing from their starting pitching surplus.  Julio Lugo, Mike Lowell, Hank Blalock, and Melvin Mora could all be targets.  If the Twins want one of the bigger dogs out there they’ll probably have to part with Scott Baker or Glen Perkins.

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Angels Interested In Ruben Sierra

By Tim Dierkes | March 24, 2006 at 9:38am CDT

Hold on to your hats, kids – the Angels almost acquired Ruben Sierra the other day.  The L.A. Times has made it known that the Halos need a lefty bat off the bench and are willing to part with Esteban Yan or Kevin Gregg.  Apparently one of those two intrigues the Twins enough to toss Sierra their way. 

That plan may have been dashed by Sierra’s strained hamstring, however.  At this point it’s possible that the Twinkies release him and give his spot to Jason Kubel (fantasy leaguers, take note).  If Sierra isn’t released, he’ll start the season on the DL.  So the Angels may have to look for another trading partner for their swap.

Halos Heaven also indicates that Tampa Bay could make a play for one of the relievers.  Yan was decent for the D-Rays back in 2001-02, and the loss of Shinji Mori creates a need.

In addition, the Angels plan to trade Chris Bootcheck early in the season for whatever needs arise.  The 27 year-old righty has only seen 29 innings of Major League action.  The former college pick has been a disappointment thus far, posting a 5.42 ERA in his fourth try at Triple A. 

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