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Johan Santana Has Full NTC For ’07

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes that Johan Santana’s 2006 Cy Young triggered a full no-trade clause in his contract for 2007.  The clause will stick for 2008 if he finishes in the top three of the voting for that award.  Otherwise, he can choose 12 teams he can’t be traded to in ’08.

There’s a lot of speculation going around concerning Santana.  Patrick Reusse opined that Santana will become baseball’s first $200MM starter and the Twins have no chance.  Furthermore, a lot of folks are trying to fit him for Yankee pinstripes already. 

Before the 2005 season, the Twins locked Santana in at four years and $40MM.  That he was willing to let the Twins buy out a few years of free agency may indicate that Santana will take a discount to remain in Minnesota.  Not a ridiculous discount, but still.  $20 million a year would be a bargain for Santana – I’m sure he could top that in free agency.

I imagine there’s a good chance that even if they don’t intend to re-sign him, the Twins will just hold on to Santana until his contract runs out.  The NTC is a big obstacle and it may prevent some team from offering three top-flight prospects.  That’s probably what it would take.  The Yankees may not have three guys that would get this deal done.  The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins, or Devil Rays might be able to pull it off if they were so inclined.

What’s Joe Nathan Worth?

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The St. Paul Pioneer Press writes that Joe Nathan wants to finish his career as a Twin and would like to discuss an extension this summer.  The Twins have him signed for 2007-08 at a well below-market $11.25MM.

Since no top tier closers were on the free agent market this winter, we didn’t directly see the inflation for them.  However, consider the AAVs for these relievers, who are closer candidates or closed recently:

Danys Baez – $6.33MM
Eric Gagne – $6MM + $5MM in incentives
Octavio Dotel – $5MM + $2.25MM in incentives
Keith Foulke – $5MM + 2MM in incentives
Justin Speier – $4.5MM
Joe Borowski – $4.25MM + $1.5MM in incentives

This is a motley crew.  Baez posted a K rate below 6 per nine and got three years.  Gagne has pitched 15 innings over the past two seasons.  Dotel, 25 innings. Foulke is shaky to say the least. Speier is reliable but it took four years.  Borowski is pitching with a messed up shoulder.

Now consider Nathan.  He’ll probably sign for a discount, but imagine if he went to the highest bidder.  He’s had four straight years of relief dominance, no matter how you measure it (saves, VORP, ERA, whatever).  He’s pitched his last three seasons in the AL.  He hasn’t allowed a baserunner per inning since ’03.  And he’s somehow getting better each year.

The biggest guaranteed deal for a closer was Billy Wagner’s four-year, $43MM contract last year.  Wagner was 35 in the first year of the deal, while Nathan will be 32 next season.  If Nathan were to hit the open market after 2007, could he get a five-year, $65MM deal?  Even more from the Yankees?

Twins Close With Rondell White

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The Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that the Twins are close to re-signing outfielder/DH Rondell White to a one-year deal with a vesting option for 2008.  He’d make $2.75MM in 2007.

White was one of baseball’s worst regulars in the early part of the season, but he came on strong after returning from a shoulder injury.  The price is right for the Twins, but that’s because they’d be fortunate if he manages to play in 110 games. 

Astros, Rockies Interested In Juan Rincon

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press writes that the Astros and Rockies are talking to the Twins about righty reliever Juan Rincon.  The Venezuelan will be 28 this January.  Rincon has always shown good command and kept the ball in the park; he’s seemingly a lock for 75 innings and an ERA around 3.

Struggling with a groin injury, Rincon posted a 1.60 WHIP in the second half and lost his job as the eighth inning setup man in September.  Also, he had surgery to remove bone chips in his pitching elbow in October of 2005 and soreness lingered into the start of the season.  Back in May of ’05, Rincon earned a 10 game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs.  He lost an appeal of the suspension.

Rincon made about $700,000 in 2006; he’ll be a free agent after the 2008 season.  As RotoWorld mentioned, a fine fit would be third baseman Morgan Ensberg. 

Torii Hunter’s Option Exercised

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As expected, the Twins exercised Torii Hunter’s $12MM 2007 option today.  Next year will be his age 31 season.  Baseball Prospectus projects his value at just $3.55MM for 2007.  On this one I will have to disagree with the numbers; I would exercise the option with little hesitation.

The Twins still have roughly $13-15MM to spend this winter; here are the team needs.

With Hunter off the market, the likely free agent center fielder options are:

Jim Edmonds
Gary Matthews Jr.
Juan Pierre
Dave Roberts
Kenny Lofton
Steve Finley
Darin Erstad

2007 Minnesota Twins

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Given their postseason berth, you wouldn’t expect Twins fans to be clamoring for a writeup on the ’07 club.  They have been, however, and I aim to please.

Terry Ryan’s contract obligations:

C – Joe Mauer – $0.4MM
C – Mike Redmond – $0.95MM
1B – Justin Morneau – $0.385MM
2B – Luis Castillo – $5.75MM
SS – Jason Bartlett – $0.38MM
3B – Nick Punto – $0.69MM
IF – Luis Rodriguez – $0.38MM
LF –
CF – Torii Hunter – $12MM option
RF – Michael Cuddyer – $1.3MM
OF – Lew Ford – $0.425MM
OF – Jason Tyner – $0.38MM
DH – Jason Kubel – $0.38MM

SP – Johan Santana – $12MM
SP – Carlos Silva – $4.35MM
SP – Boof Bonser – $0.38MM
SP – Matt Garza – $0.38MM
SP – Scott Baker – $0.38MM
SP – Glen Perkins – $0.38MM
SP – Kevin Slowey – $0.38MM
SP – J.D. Durbin – $0.38MM

RP – Joe Nathan – $5.25MM
RP – Juan Rincon – $0.7MM
RP – Dennys Reyes – $1MM
RP – Jesse Crain – $0.38MM
RP – Pat Neshek – $0.38MM
RP – Matt Guerrier – $0.38MM
RP – Willie Eyre – $0.38MM

Injured:
SP – Francisco Liriano – $0.38MM

This is about $52MM worth of players, raises included.  The team entered ’06 with a $63MM payroll.

The big decision, of course, is Torii Hunter.  Declining the chance to have him for one year, $12MM is lunacy, and I don’t think that will happen.  Lately Hunter has said he’s looking to renegotiate for a four-year deal.  I think he stays and his recently play cemented it.

There’s this idea of beginning 2007 with Punto as the starting 3B.  I guess this is rationalized based on defensive abilities.  To be fair, the free agent market for third basemen stinks and the Twins won’t be winning the Aramis Ramirez bidding if he hits the market.  The usual trade candidates will surface: Mike Lowell, Hank Blalock.  Can’t see Joe Crede traded to a rival, though Morgan Ensberg, Adrian Beltre, or Dallas McPherson could be available.  Pretty sure we’ll see Punto at third on opening day though.

Rondell White’s option for 2007 won’t vest, so the team will be in need of a left fielder, DH, or both.  Kubel may be able to fill the DH role.  Terry Ryan could bring White back at $2MM or so.  While he’ll be 35 next season, he’s been much better since returning from a demotion in July.  Other options, and names I keep recommending for various teams: Moises Alou, David Dellucci, and Frank Catalanotto.  Luis Gonzalez would probably do league average work, but he’d have to be convinced to play in Minnesota. 

The pitching rotation looks pretty well set: Santana and the Kids.  Even if Liriano goes down to injury, the #2-5 starters would be Bonser, Garza, Baker, and maybe Perkins.  There are some question marks but it still doesn’t justify a huge free agent expenditure.  Perhaps to hedge his best Ryan will spend some of his free $10-15MM on one mid-level guy.  That could be Miguel Batista, Cory Lidle, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Ramon Ortiz, Chan Ho Park, John Thomson, Jeff Weaver…the list goes on.  It makes sense to snag one.  I don’t see much need to tinker with the bullpen; the Twins know that homegrown talent is the way to go.

Overall I don’t see the Twins being too active this winter, just like any other offseason.  They’ll probably get one starter and a decent left fielder and call it good.  I can’t say I’d do much differently aside from the Punto thing.

2009 MLB Free Agents: Johan Santana

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Is it too early to be talking about this?  Apparently not.  Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press throws it out there: what’s going to happen when Johan Santana hits free agency after the 2008 season?  Walters says Santana will still be just 29.  In reality, 2009 will be his age 30 season.

Let’s use Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projection system to forecast how much money Santana might receive on the open market.  Let’s start with Roy Oswalt, who will receive $14.6MM annually in his new five-year deal.  PECOTA says his forecasted performance is worth about $40MM for 2007-11 as opposed to the $73MM he will receive.  That’s more than an 80% premium for an ace starter.

Peter Greenberg currently represents Johan Santana.  Other Greenberg clients include Bobby Abreu, Kelvim Escobar, Freddy Garcia, and Jose Reyes.  It seems that if Greenberg plans to maximize Santana’s payday, he could ask for $120MM over six years.  Who knows?  Santana might be able to get $150MM over seven seasons.  He’s been the best pitcher in baseball for three years running and has shown no signs of slowing down.

By my calculations, Jeremy Bonderman, Mark Prior, Brad Penny, Jake Peavy, and Ben Sheets will also be in the free agent class of 2009.  ’09 will be Bonderman’s age 26 season and Peavy’s age 28 year.  If all of these guys actually hit the market the spending should get insane.

Twins Trade For Phil Nevin

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Given that the Twins rank second from the bottom of the AL in home runs, they acquired a DH type with some pop: Phil Nevin.

Nevin’s had his ups and downs this year between the Rangers and Cubs, but he is slugging .456 in 355 ABs.  Twins’ DHs have been a void this season so Nevin can only help.  Minnesota currently trails the White Sox by a half game for the AL wild card. 

Nevin’s $10MM salary ranks second on his new club, though the Cubs are footing some of the bill in hopes of receiving a decent prospect.

Carroll On Twins’ Last Minute Soriano Discussions

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Via Will Carroll:

"The Twins are in rapid-fire discussions with the Nationals regarding Alfonso Soriano. The offers center around pitching, with Matt Garza and Scott Baker the keys. The Twins offered Jason Kubel in the deal in lieu of Garza, but were rebuffed. I’m told that the Twins have informed Torii Hunter that he’s being offered around; his option, if declined, would help "pay for" Soriano."

We should know within minutes what Jim Bowden ultimately settles for with Soriano.  My guess is that the Twins would rather stand pat than part with Garza.  I think Kubel and Baker would be a decent, Major League ready bounty for the impending free agent.

Stark: A’s Making Run At Soriano

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With three hours and change left to go, add Oakland to the list of teams interested in Alfonso Soriano.  Jayson Stark’s latest also indicates that the Twins are "all over the Soriano scene."

Soriano doesn’t work the count, but he adds slugging.  The A’s are last in the league with a woeful .393 SLG.  Hasn’t been any better in July, either – they’re at .375 this month.

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