More Rosenthal
Ken Rosenthal’s been a busy man today. He’s got another column up for FOXSports.com; go read it. The high-level version:
- Rosenthal sees the Yankees declining Bobby Abreu‘s 2008 option and turning to Melky Cabrera or a big name free agent for right field. I agree; you can check out my other assessments of 2008 club options here. Might be time to switch my predictions on Juan Uribe, Jose Guillen, and Paul Byrd. I can now see Uribe declined and the other two exercised. Byrd has come alive, and Guillen’s strong May has sparked the chance of the Ms taking their $9MM option for ’08.
- Torii Hunter‘s having a well-timed career year, but the Twins can’t trade him unless they’re out of contention. Tough situation. The Twins are 7.5 games back in the Central, 7 out of the wild card. If it’s double digits in July the decision gets easier.
- It wouldn’t be easy for the Cardinals to trade Scott Rolen right now, based on the factors outlined here.
- Erick Aybar remains an excellent trading chip for the Angels. His .600 OPS doesn’t help his value, but it’s pretty much what PECOTA expected. There’s a small chance Aybar becomes Barry Larkin, but to me he looks like the next Cesar Izturis.
Perrotto’s Latest
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has quickly become another fine source for trade rumors. Some highlights from his latest column:
- The Twins would surrender a solid arm – maybe Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, or Scott Baker – in return for a right-handed hitter. My own speculation: perhaps Wayne Krivsky, looking to stabilize his bullpen, would trade Edwin Encarnacion for Rincon. Rincon has been one of the best setup men in baseball for the past four years. On the other hand, Baker could really flourish in the National League and Kyle Lohse may leave via free agency after the season. Terry Ryan might want a more proven, reliable bat though. Buster Olney throws out Morgan Ensberg‘s name in his blog today.
- Some clubs already have center fielder Torii Hunter on the radar: the Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers. I think there is no doubt the Rangers go in for one of the "name" center fielders this winter. I can see the Red Sox testing the waters but it would seem odd to block Jacoby Ellsbury for four or five years. Hunter is making the contract year argument, hitting .324/.358/.618 in 35 games. His previous career high in slugging was .524 in ’02.
- Perrotto confirms the finding of Michael Gluskin – Odalis Perez and Chan Ho Park are two names on the Orioles’ target list of starting pitchers. The O’s might have found some relief in the shrewd Jeremy Guthrie pickup – his last two starts against the Devil Rays and Red Sox were excellent.
Torii Hunter At 4/60?
Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press believes Torii Hunter will snag a contract in the neighborhood of four years and $60MM after this season, if his strong offensive output continues. That’s an entirely reasonable estimate and may be low.
A 32 year-old Johnny Damon received four years and $52MM, but that was two years ago and Hunter plays better defense. Alfonso Soriano might be a better point of reference at eight years, $136MM. He turned 31 shortly after he signed; Hunter will be about 32.5. Soriano was simply an experiment in center, while Hunter is a pro.
If Hunter is no longer a .480 SLG type guy, but rather a .540 SLG type (admittedly a long shot), his contract could ramp up to $16MM annually over five or even six years. The only concern is that his newfound power is coming at the expense of walks – Hunter has just three of them so far this year. It works as long as he’s hitting .330.
With Jacoby Ellsbury coming on strong in the minors, the Red Sox don’t need a huge CF expenditure. I could see the Orioles, Rangers, or Phillies splurging on Hunter this winter.
Santana Wants 8 Years?
I am not sure about this rumor, but thought I’d put it out here for debate.
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune writes:
"Before contract talks broke off between Johan Santana and the Twins, baseball’s best pitcher is believed to have had put the team on notice that he wants a contract at least as long as Barry Zito‘s eight-year deal with San Francisco."
Rogers does not specifically name a source on that statement, and follows it with Santana’s recent quote about hoping to remain a Twin for life. I don’t know if the Zito reference is Rogers’ interpretation of Santana’s Minneapolis Tribune quote, or a new piece of information. I have a feeling Santana might be amenable to a six or seven year contract from the Twins.
As far as the idea of trading Torii Hunter or Santana before they reach free agency, no-trade clauses could complicate matters. Santana has a full no-trade if he places top three in this year’s Cy Young voting, which seems likely based on the past three seasons. Hunter can block deals to the Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, Devil Rays, and Blue Jays this year. Boston is the one team I could see having a spot for him this summer out of that group.
Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More
Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.
- Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending. The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter. I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations. Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
- Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka. In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too. The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past. I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
- The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available. Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described. And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today.
- Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins. Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.
Twins Make Weak Offer To Santana
According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the Twins recently offered Johan Santana a two-year extension for $36MM plus a club option for 2011. I know you have to start somewhere with negotiations, but the Twins could essentially double their offer and it would still be well below market value.
Heyman mentions that Santana has informed the Twins that he won’t negotiate again until he hits the open market after the 2008 season. Maybe Santana made that assertion because he felt insulted by the team’s lowball offer.
If the Twins are that far apart from an extension with Santana, they might want to consider trading him sometime between now and July 31st, 2008. Don’t forget, however, that Santana has a full no-trade clause this year and a good shot at one for ’08.
Some have suggested that Santana will become baseball’s first $200MM pitcher; clearly a deal won’t get done with less than $100MM being committed. People keep reporting that Santana will become a free agent at age 29, which is technically true, but he will be 30 on Opening Day 2009.
UPDATE: Not so fast, said Santana today. He says he hasn’t received an offer from the Twins, but the sooner the better if the Twins want to break their "no negotiations in-season policy." A report four days ago indicated the Twins will ignore that policy for Santana.
Twins Will Negotiate In-Season
La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune quotes a high-ranking Twins official in saying that the club will ignore their own policy and negotiate contracts during the season. In particular, they’ll continue to try to extend Joe Nathan and Johan Santana. Neal also cites precedents where the Twins bent policies, whether regarding contracts or beards.
We last heard about Nathan a few days ago, when Charley Walters reported "positive discussions" on a deal that could run through 2011. A week prior to that Nathan said he didn’t think a deal would get done this year.
Santana wants to stay, and was quoted saying "the sooner the better." It’s just a matter of how much of a discount he’ll concede to the Twins.
Let’s Make A Deal: Reed Johnson
Reed Johnson. He’s a 30 year-old outfielder who can play all three positions. He posted a .391 OBP as the Jays’ leadoff hitter last year. He doesn’t need to be platooned. He makes $3.075MM this year and has two years of service time left before free agency.
If there’s one team that can afford to compromise a little outfield defense, it’s the Jays. They’ve got two excellent athletes in Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. The DH spot is blocked with Frank Thomas, leaving no spot for young Adam Lind. Lind appears Major League ready – his PECOTA is .289/.349/.493 and he projects to be more valuable than Johnson in 2007. Lind’s defense is lacking, but the Jays can stomach that.
So which teams could use Reed Johnson? The Twins, Braves, Cardinals, and Marlins are possibilities. I think he could be a decent center fielder for the Fish, but they’d hesitate to take on his salary. The Braves seem content with their left field platoon, though I think Johnson would fit. The Cards also have some outfield questions, though Ricciardi hasn’t traded with John Schuerholz or Walt Jocketty before. The Dodgers had interest in Johnson in the past but the Brady Clark acquisition removes their need.
That leaves the Twins as my choice. They’re relying on the health of Rondell White and/or Jason Kubel in left, and they may want to trade Torii Hunter midseason. Alexi Casilla is ready to replace Luis Castillo as well, and Johnson could be used at leadoff while Casilla gets acclimated.
In return, the Twins could send one of their young starters to the Jays. Asking for Glen Perkins or Kevin Slowey seems like too much, but Scott Baker is buried on their starting pitching depth chart. He seems to have fallen out of favor after a half-season of 6.37 ball last year. While his home run tendencies are a poor fit for Rogers Centre, Baker did have a promising 3.9 K/BB last year. He’s 25 years old and seems like an appropriate bounty for Johnson. Thoughts?
Twins, Nathan Talking Extension
According to Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Joe Nathan and the Twins have had "positive discussions about a contract extension."
The deal could run through 2011, enabling Nathan to spend at least a couple of seasons at the new ballpark. It sounds like Nathan won’t let talks run into Spring Training 2008, which will precede his walk year.
By 2009, the Twins probably will have already gotten the best of Nathan’s career. But as long as he stays healthy he should be closing when he’s 40. His skills could deteriorate and he’d still be a top five closer. If PECOTA were to sign him for 2009-11, it’d offer about $34MM. Since he likes Minnesota and wants to stay, the Twins might be able to complete a deal in that range.
Luis Castillo A Met In ’08?
The Mets and second baseman Luis Castillo have seemed like a good match for a while now. The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported today that Castillo nearly signed with the Mets three years ago before the Marlins improved their offer. Additionally, the Mets almost traded for him in November of ’05.
Today I added Castillo to my list of 2008 Free Agents; he ranked 29th. Should Jeff Kent retire, Castillo will compete with Marcus Giles as the best available 2B after this season. Castillo won’t return to the Twins; they have a younger version of him in Alexi Casilla. Actually, Casilla should probably be used at shortstop, but I doubt Castillo returns. I should add that Casilla is going to make a phenomenal fantasy sleeper once he starts – .300+ average, 40+ steals. Just like the Luis Castillo of the late 90s. Put him on reserve in AL-only this year.
Since Jose Valentin‘s 2006 season looks just a tad out of line with his recent performances, the Mets may be compelled to trade for Castillo this summer instead of waiting for him to hit the open market.