MLBTR Chats

Tim

• Did you think Morton and Paddock were big movies at the trade deadline?    Morton over 7 era for the tigers.  Paddock over 6.

Mark P

• I didn’t mind either at the time, and to be fair other moves (most notably Kyle Finnegan) have really worked out.

  At the time of the deadline, the Tigers clearly felt they just needed final touches rather than any major additions.  Hindsight is obviously 20-20 on that, but if they do end up collapsing entirely and missing the playoffs, you’ve got to believe the front office will finally get more aggressive with bigger moves this winter

Yesavage Fan

• Will Trey Yesavage get a spot in the bullpen or perhaps even the rotation for the playoffs. He is electric on the mound as I had the pleasure of knowing him since middle school and graduating with him.

Mark P

• It’s cool that you have such longtime ties to a big leaguer!  Well, maybe not “long time” since middle school wasn’t too long ago for Yesavage.  lol, man, do I ever feel old in seeing all these players debut who are so young.

  Toronto’s rotation is a total question mark after Gausman and Bieber.  Yesavage might end up getting a start almost by default, if Bassitt is hurt, Scherzer can’t get on track, and if the Jays stick to the plan of having Berrios as a reliever.  It’s a real roll of the dice asking a rookie to make a high-pressure playoff start so early into his career, yet it’s may not that different from having be, say, a multi-inning guy in a similar role

• Frankly, I think the likeliest scenario is Gausman, Bieber, then “pitching chaos” based on matchups and availability

M

• do we think the Astros or the tigers miss the playoffs?

Mark P

• Will the Astros or Tigers miss the playoffs?

  ---

  Both are in (24.8% | 126 votes)

  Astros make, Tigers miss (23.0% | 117 votes)

  Tigers make, Astros miss (52.1% | 265 votes)

  ---

  Total Votes: 508
• I opted to leave out the “both miss” answer since the Rangers’ collapse has erased that possibility

Fish Fan

• Are the Marlins for real? Only 4 games out with a week left in the season? Who saw that coming? Is Clayton the manager of the year?

Mark P

• I wonder how many people read this comment, thought “wait, what?” and then did a double take at the standings.  After losing seven of their first eight September games, Miami is now 10-1 in its last 11 games.

  The math is by no means in their favor to actually make the postseason, but the fact that we’re having this conversation is a testament to the Marlins’ underrated year.

Charleston Chew

• How far can the Mariners make provided they get in?

Mark P

• There’s basically no doubt at this point that Seattle is at least getting in, and they’re really putting an iron grip on the division title.  The Mariners should worry every single opponent they face in October, and are a legit threat to win it all.

Cleveland

• Manzardo looks unplayable as a 1B, which is saying something. Could Alonso be in the Guardians budget? A lot of money freed up.

Mark P

• Alonso won’t be even remotely in their price range.

Drake

• Do you think the A’s try to lock up any others of their offensive core? (Langeliers, Kurtz, Wilson, Soderstrom)

Mark P

• On paper yes, though it remains to be seen if last spring’s extension flurry was just to avoid MLBPA pressure and to hit their spending minimum.

  If last winter was an anomaly, it may take for the Vegas move to actually happen before we can start thinking about the A’s operating in a somewhat more normal fashion.  Not that they’ll start spending big or anything, but at least more common moves like locking players up to early extensions.

• In Kurtz’s case, I think he has already priced himself out of the Athletics’ comfort zone.

Angry Rangers Fan

• The rangers HAVE to sign either Tucker, Schwarber, or Bregman right? Get a proven hitter to help Seager and Langford in that lineup

Mark P

• Assuming that Texas indeed stayed under the tax line and reset their taxpayer status, I can see them making (or trying to make) one big splash.

Carl

• Charlie Morton……prolly at the end of his career. Awesome career tho!

Mark P

• Absolutely.  Despite the tough ending, Morton should be proud of his many achievements, if this is indeed the end of the road for him.

Ken

• Rank from most to least likely to resign with their current team: Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman, and Tucker

Mark P

• Schwarber, Bregman, Alonso, and then a big gap before Tucker.  I’d guess Schwarber staying in Philly is borderline probable given how the organization loves him, and Tucker is almost definitely leaving Chicago

Yankees

• Do the Yankees shop McMahon for a third baseman that can hit and field, instead of just a one dimensional gap filler?

Mark P

• It was surprising to see New York eat all of McMahon’s salary at the deadline, so if they were willing, I guess another might be too.  But, as good as McMahon’s glove is, the bat just isn’t there.

  Since the rest of the lineup is full of sluggers, the Yankees might be fine having one glove-first spot in the batting order….especially if Volpe’s defensive issues continue on the left side of the infield.  I don’t think the Yankees make that trade for McMahon if they were just going to flip him this winter.

Mookie B.

• How wrecked are we without Smitty?

Mark P

• It’s a big loss.  The Dodgers have withstood all manner of injuries before, but missing Smith makes that lineup considerably weaker.

Gaurdsball?!

• Are we riding a negative run dif into a division title?!

Mark P

• A minimal offense suddenly isn’t such a big problem when your pitchers are allowing roughly 1.5 runs per game.

Rafael Ramirez

• Do you think Kim picks up his option with the Braves?

Mark P

• I think just last week I felt he’d just exercise his player option and take the one-year payday, with the idea of having a full and healthy 2026 to re-establish himself.

  But, after Kim has continued to hit for several more days now, I think he might have built enough of a platform for Boras to market him for a multi-year deal this winter.  It’ll likely be one of those contract that has multiple opt-outs attached, yet taking such a deal allows Kim more flexibility and more money than simply taking the $16MM for 2026

• The other wrinkle here is that the Braves generally don’t do business with Boras clients.  It’s obviously not a hard rule since, you know, Kim is on the team right now.  But, it might add some interesting layers to any talks between Kim and the Braves about an extension.

Natitude Dude

• When will the Nats have a GM in place? Any leading favorite(s)?

Mark P

• This post runs down the known candidates linked to the vacancy already:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/nationals-have-interviewed-red-…
• Hard to say if there’s any kind of a favorite, but the Washington Post reported that Josh Byrnes has yet with the Lerner family.  It’s possible other candidates have at well, so it’s maybe too soon to dub Byrnes as a top choice

Guest

• Will the Astros pay Valdez?

Mark P

• My prediction is that he’s pitching elsewhere in 2026

SFGigantes

• Besides Sonny Gray(as previously mentioned) could SFG get Sandy Alcantara from Marlins in the offseason and not have to give up Josiah Gonzales? I wanted us to go get him at the deadline, even tho we had fallen apart.

Mark P

• The Marlins being so competitive makes me wonder about Alcantara’s availability.  Chances are that the Fish will still be open to moving that salary and garnering a big return if one can be found, yet if the Marlins think they can properly contend in 2026, perhaps they think about adding instead of subtracting.

Marky Mark

• Whats on the Sunday Night Chat Playlist?   

Mark P

• “The Crystal Ballroom,” an incredible U2 b-side track

Cal Raleigh

• Do you think I can break Judge’s home run record?

Mark P

• Went yard for the 58th time tonight.  Five homers in six-plus games is a tall order, especially since I can see the M’s resting Raleigh for a game or two to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

Joseph

• What would it take for the Orioles to land MacKenzie Gore this offseason? He would seem like a great fit next to Rogers and Bradish.

Mark P

• It may depend to some extent on who the Nats’ next PBO/GM is, but I’d expect Washington to still keep a very high ask on Gore’s services.  Even though he faded in the second half and got hurt, a controllable (for two more years) pitcher who has shown frontline stuff merits a big price tag.

  I’d also think it unlikely that the Orioles in particular could get much traction in talks with the Nats, if there’s any bad blood lingering from The Neverending MASN Dispute

Derek

• If the White Sox pick up Robert’s option, would a trade for Bohm work since it fills a need for both teams?

Mark P

• Just as salary offset, since Bohm doesn’t have much value to a rebuilding team like the ChiSox.

Acuna

• Any chance Braves trade me,would look good in right field  for the Cubs?

Mark P

• There’s zero chance Acuna is traded.  Why would the Braves do that?

carpathian florist

• Bigger disappointment- Mets missing the postseason or tigers missing the postseason?

Mark P

• Certainly the Mets, based on payroll and higher expectations going into the season.

Pirates

• Do we take a big swing trade wise in the offseason? Maybe trade for Taylor Ward by giving some of our insane pitching depth?

Mark P

• Ward is set for free agency following the 2026 season, so I’m not sure if the Bucs want to give up one of their prized young arms for just one year of his services.

Cookie Monster

• What is it going to take for the Cubs to fire everyone?  Non

Mark P

• They’ve made the playoffs and will finish with the third or fourth best record in the National League.  Hoyer just signed an extension two months ago.  Counsell is under contract through 2028.

Bucs Fan

• Thoughts on Cherington’s comments? Any free agents/trades Pirates could go/make after this offseason?

Mark P

• If not necessarily Taylor Ward, getting 2-3 experienced and proven bats would be a huge help.  Since we can’t assume the Pirates will spend to sign anyone notable, that puts the onus on Cherington to trade a controllable young pitcher for a controllable young hitter, and hope to score much bigger than the Priester-for-Yorke swap.

pizzashill

• Can you name a catcher season you would take over 2025 cal Raleigh?

Mark P

• Probably some Josh Gibson years, but that might literally be it in all of baseball history.  Just an incredible year for Raleigh.

Bostonpaul

• Who do you see thr Red Sox extending qualified offer to after the season?

Mark P

• Giolito probably, and the others are all either ineligible (Bregman, Story if he opts out) or non-candidates

2027 Season

• Is it all but certain that we will have both a salary cap and floor for the 2027 season?  It seems to be the middle ground between yes floor and yes cap, and the fans seem to be in favor.

Mark P

• The fans don’t have a say in CBA talks.  The players have long been steadfast in refusing any sort of cap, and I don’t see them bending now.

Twins

• Will Minnesota spend money this off-season

Mark P

• Nope

Moneyball

• Thoughts on a Severino for Cronenworth trade? Pads probably need pitching, even just depth, unload cronenworths contract. A’s could use a vetern left handed infielder with uncertainty around Gelof, Hernaiz, etc.

Mark P

• Cronenworth is owed $60MM from 2026-30, and he has a partial eight-team no-trade clause.  Chances are that the A’s are on that list just because most guys don’t want to play in a minor league park.

  Severino only has $42MM remaining on his deal (over the 2026-27 seasons), so the money doesn’t entirely match up either.

Some guy

• Realistic expectations for my White Sox next year?

Mark P

• Getting under the 100-loss mark.  Chicago has 98 losses with six games remaining, so they’ll almost surely hit triple digits again.

  It shouldn’t be overlooked that this is still a big improvement over their rock-bottom showing in 2024, by almost a 20-game margin.  Obviously 2024 was an outlier and 2025 has been more of a “normal” type of bad season, but there are some signs of progress.

Vito Acconci

• Best Radiohead album? the Bends, OK Computer, Kid A, Amnesiac, or A Moon Shaped Pool?

Mark P

• Don’t forget “In Rainbows,” which might be my pick

BB fan

• What is going on with Minnesota with their penny pinching?

Mark P

• Ownership has heavy debts, and wasn’t able to find anyone to both buy the team and take on all/most of that debt.  Between that and the loss of TV revenue, the impact is being felt on the baseball payroll.

Jeff

• If Scherzer can’t get right, do the Jays leave him off the playoff roster entirely?  Hard to see a spot for him in a 12 man pen with Lauer and Berrios down there.

Mark P

• It’s hard to see Scherzer being omitted entirely, given his long history.  Plus, like I mentioned earlier, there’s enough uncertainty about the 3rd/4th starter roles that Scherzer might well still end up with a rotation job

Ron Washington

• Should I return next season?

Mark P

• He wants to, and I can see the Angels bringing him back as something of a do-over since health issues sidelined him for so much of this year

Alpa Chino

• Who ya got for NL ROY?

Mark P

• Off the top of my head, Cade Horton, but I’d have to double-check all the numbers

JeffyM

• If Santander and Bo are both back for the playoffs who do you think gets left off?  Loperfido, France and IKF?

Mark P

• France is likely off.  I’d like to keep both IKF and Loperfido if possible, and for a Jays team that’s had trouble scoring runs lately, you’d think Loperfido (who’s still got an OPS in the high 800s) would get more at-bats.

Hunt for Reds October

• No matter how it turns out (hopefully for the better), isn’t it still obvious the Reds HAVE to improve the offense in the off-season?  How often do we have to face this before they actually do anything?

Mark P

• Agreed.  With the pitching becoming such a strength, adding some real bats could make Cincinnati into a big threat quickly (if they aren’t already).

Mets choke fest

• Who’s to blame for the Mets collapse?

Mark P

• The pitching has just evaporated.  To that extent it’s on the rotation themselves, yet David Stearns’ unusual (but usually successful) method of building a pitching staff really backfired on the Mets this year.

Dodger Dave

• Mark, if the Dodgers put Teo on the market this Winter, what kind of interest/return do you think they can get for him?

Mark P

• There’s $33MM owed to Hernandez through 2027, counting the buyout of his 2028 club option.  There’s also a ton of deferred money involved in his contract as a whole, but let’s go with $33MM as a baseline.

  Hernandez currently has an exactly average 100 wRC+, with a big decrease in power from 2024 and his already-low walk rate has hit a new career low.  His trade value isn’t nil, but a lot of teams are going to see this season as a pretty good reason to stay away

Guest

• Naylor to the Reds? Or is he staying where he is?

Mark P

• Naylor would be a very nice boost to the Cincinnati offense, but I’m not sure if the Reds are willing to meet his asking price.

Marsey

• Bees?

Mark P

• Beads?!

Gapsmith

• Realistically, how far can the Phillies go without Zach Wheeler?

Mark P

• Common sense would seem to dictate that the Phils can’t win without their ace.  The rest of the rotation is still good, however, and the offense might just be able to outslug other teams, so I can’t rule Philly out.
• We’re about two hours in here, so let’s call it a wrap.  Thanks for all your questions and comments, and let’s rev up for what might be a wild final week of the regular season!
• If you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-9-21-24

Steve Adams

• It’s just changed. Bubba Chandler probably would’ve been up months sooner, for instance, whereas guys like Drake Baldwin, Cam Smith, Jacob Wilson etc. just landed in the majors from the jump. Teams are always going to game the agreed-upon rules to some extent in the name of good business.

SFGigantes

• Thoughts on Verlander getting another 1/15 from SFG for 2026?

Steve Adams

• He’s been solid. It the two parties want to run it back, I think that deal would make sense

Still an A

• When do you see the A’s as legit playoff contenders?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think it’s out of the question that they could be in the Wild Card mix next year. I’d take 2027 as the safer bet, but I like a lot of their young hitters. If they can get a couple surprise rotation performances, be it via offseason additions or in-house strides from a Gage Jump, Braden Nett etc. — it’s not outrageous to me to think they could be a ’26 sleeper.

Yordan Ankle

• Do you have an update on my ankle

Steve Adams

• If I did, it’d be on the site!

Ellis

• What do the White Sox do with Robert Jr. this off-season? Almost seems like it’s come full circle to keep him around with his diminished trade value in case this team takes big strides next year

Steve Adams

• They’ll pick up his option and gauge trade interest again. I think they should’ve eaten all his remaining contract and moved him at the deadline, but  they’re obviously comfortable gambling on the woeful health track record.

Mike Ellias

• What does my promotion mean for the O’s  off-season?

Steve Adams

• Not much outside the fact that they’ll hire a GM, adding another high-profile voice to work under Elias, who’ll remain final say over all baseball ops matters

Joe Nuxhall

• Reds need a thumper. What does Hunter Greene bring back ?  I know people would say I’m crazy to trade Hunter but I think he brings back what we need.

Steve Adams

• He’d bring back more than one premium bat, but that’s true of plenty within Cincinnati’s system. I’m not trading Greene or Chase Burns. You could get a quality bat for either Nick Lodolo or especially Andrew Abbott as well. I do think dealing from their pitching stash makes some sense, as I alluded to last week for subscribers:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/reds-trade-rumors-offseason-nic…

Tal’s Hill

• Do stros move Christian Walker in the offseason to open up a hole for Parades

Steve Adams

• Darragh and I talked about this at length on the podcast this morning. (That episode will drop tomorrow)They’d have to eat some of the contract to facilitate a deal, but sure, it’s possible. They could also look to move Paredes, though I think his swing is more or less tailor-made for Daikin Park.

  Less popular idea — let me duck/shield my self from Astros fans quick — would be to trade Jeremy Pena to help replenish what’s a pretty barren rotation. Two more years of team control, but he’s a Boras client who’s not likely to sign the type of extensions the Astros offer. Could go Correa at SS, Paredes at 3B, Walker 1B and Altuve/Brice Matthews at 2B.

  Not saying they should/will do it — just that it’s something I can envision other teams inquiring about, and the Astros ought to at least hear them out to see what kind of arm is out there.

chaim boom

• Are we heading towards a Nolan Arenado release this off season?  Doesn’t seem like there is much trade value left.

Steve Adams

• I’d be surprised if they straight up release him. The trade value’s in the tank, but if they pay him down to like $4-5MM per year, they could at least salvage some cash.

Nico Hoerner

• Traded or extended by the Cubbies?

Steve Adams

• If he’s open to it, extend him again. I don’t think they’ll trade him this winter, though with so few shortstop options out there, some team might try to get a bit creative and pry him away with a position change in mind.

walter alston

• with the lack of good quality closers who do the dodgers go after for 2026

Steve Adams

• They don’t generally chase the high-end closers in free agency anyhow. The only times in the past decade they’ve done so (as you can see in our handy Contract Tracker) were to re-sign Kenley Jansen (5 years, $80MM) and to sign Tanner Scott this past winter (4/72 with deferrals).Jansen was more of an ownership decision. Scott was breaking from the norm and it hasn’t really worked out.

  I imagine the Dodgers will have interest in bounceback deals with Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley and Luke Weaver, and they’ll probably be open to paying up for some buzz relievers who’ve elevated their standing considerably this season (someone like Brad Keller)

  But in general, I wouldn’t expect them to be on someone like Edwin Diaz or Robert Suarez (the top relievers this winter)

Brian Cashman

• How much will it cost me to resign Cody Bellinger after he opts out?

Steve Adams

• I apparently remain the eternal Bellinger optimist, but something like $120-140MM over five years (maybe six years if it trends closer to the larger end of that range)

John Means

• Havent heard anything on him…is he with the Guards in 2026?

Steve Adams

• He’s pitching on a rehab assignment and should be activated in the final couple weeks. They’ll probably get two starts to see how he looks. Zack Meisel with The Athletic opined recently that Means’ option would be picked up if he’s healthy. I’m a little more bearish on the idea if he looks so-so in his 2-3 MLB starts, but Meisel is super plugged in on the team.I touched on Means a bit in this post
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/9-contract-options-to-keep-an-e…

Woodruff

• over/under 99.5mm?

Steve Adams

• Under, but I think he can get a pretty weighty three-year contract

Phanatic

• will the Phillies lose Ranger for… nothing? Who replaces Realmuto if he signs somewhere else?

Steve Adams

• Won’t be for nothing, since he’ll reject a qualifying offer, but the Phils are a tax payor so that reduces the compensation to a pick after the fourth round. Not great.There aren’t a lot of great options at catcher other than re-signing JTR. Could roll the dice on Victor Caratini or a second straight buy-low look for Danny Jansen.

  If Realmuto goes elsewhere, the trade market probably makes more sense. Ryan Jeffers, Jake Rogers, Tyler Stephenson are among the guys I can see available this winter.

@tayyyburrr

• Which current Padre gets the better contract- King or Cease?

Collins

• Am I ROY for NL? And will I and MIL qualify for the CBA benefits of such if I am?

Steve Adams

• He has a good chance at it, but he won’t get them a comp pick if he wins the award since he wasn’t a top prospect

Umbruflla

• Did the Orioles find a couple gems in Jacksons that are not Holliday?  Jeremiah Jackson and Alex Jackson seem to be keepers, or do the numbers under the hood tell a different tale?

Steve Adams

• Alex Jackson is 30 in December and has K’ed in 40% of his MLB plate appearances in his career, including one-third of them this offseason. It’s been a nice 90 plate appearances, but this isn’t sustainable.Jeremiah, perhaps more so, but he doesn’t walk and is really only thriving because he’s hitting close to .360 on balls in play. I can still see him as a viable utility player, but I’m not really buying these ~150 plate appearances

Framber Valdez

• Are teams gonna try and low ball me because of me crossing up/nailing my catcher?

Steve Adams

• If they do, they just won’t get him.
• Valdez is going to be paid handsomely, even with the late slide. I think the cross-up drama is overstated.

Bo Naylor

• Do I stick with the Guards or am I moved with 1.5 years of a look in the show

Steve Adams

• Could stick around as a glove-first backup, but the Guardians need to try to find more offense at multiple spots in 2025, with catcher near the top of the list.

Brewerfan

• RE:Collins not being a top prospect. Isn’t that ridiculously arbitrary that you have to be a top-prospect when those ratings are incredibly subjective? I get the idea that they are the ones suffering most from service time manipulation, but the idea that teams should only benefit for not manipulating top prospect service time is silly.

Steve Adams

• I agree, sure, but the rules are the rules.

Cade Horton

• Legit chance to win Rookie of the year?

Steve Adams

• Yup

Jake

• What is your opinion on the Jose Barrios so far? Have Martin and Woods-Richardson impressed or disappointed?

Steve Adams

• There’s no question they’ve disappointed relative to the expectations when the Twins traded Berrios to Toronto. But both are still controllable for several years, and SWR is having a particularly nice finish. In retrospect, they should’ve done better, but Martin was barely a year removed from being the No. 5 overall pick and Woods Richardson was a nearly MLB-ready pitching prospect who’d drawn some top-100 love. The package was fine at the time — good, even — but the results haven’t been there. In general, the Twins’ ability to finish off the development on well regarded position prospects has been lackluster.

Allen

• Raleigh is the AL MVP right?

Steve Adams

• If the season were to end today, he’d get my nonexistent vote. But it’s razor-thin between the two, and if Cal goes into the tank while Judge goes on a vintage Judge tear between now and season’s end, you could change my mind.

ROX

• Moniak has had a nice little season.

Steve Adams

• He’s hit decently, yeah, but I don’t understand how the defensive grades have tanked this hard. Still think the Rockies should’ve traded him at the deadline, but maybe the offers were just nothingburgers. I’d absolutely be listening on him this winter.

White Sox hopeful

• What do you make of the early success of the White Sox rookie class this season?  Montgomery, Teel, Quero and Miedroth seem to be on the right path.

Steve Adams

• Montgomery either needs to find a way to improve his contact when he chases off the plate or just cut down on his chases in general. He’s making contact only one-third of the time he swings at a ball off the plate, per Statcast, which is awful. But the contact within the zone is passable (albeit a bit below-average), and the power is encouraging.Teel looks great. Quero … I don’t think he’s a catcher, and the bat hasn’t been good enough to justify playing at another position. But he’s still young, so we’ll see.

  Meidroth seems fine, but there’s not a lot of ceiling with the lack of power.

  Broadly speaking, it’s not a bad group. And I remain a weird Miguel Vargas truther who still thinks Vargas will be an above-average hitter.

Yankees

• It is clear that the Yankees no longer know what they are doing. The handling of Volpe not only shows they don’t care about the development of their players but also that they can no longer see putting him on the IL for 10 days back in May would have been better for him and the team.

Steve Adams

• I think they’ve done plenty of things right this year, but I agree that the handling of Volpe is at or near the top of a notable list of head-scratchers. Beyond the on-field ramifications, why are you letting this kid get absolutely eviscerated by fans — both at the stadium and especially on social media — by keeping a notable injury like a torn labrum so hush-hush?It’s sort of like what the Astros did last summer, letting fans grow beyond frustrated with Kyle Tucker for missing so much time with a contusion/bone bruise … only to finally announce “Oh yeah, he’s had a fracture in his shin for like three months”

  On the one hand, sure you can say these guys are professionals and they should be able to take the criticism. But on the other, it’s so unnecessary, and that seems particularly true with a young kid like Volpe. It’s just … weird. Be transparent.

Guest

• Arenado and Gray have each been adamant about not waiving their no-trade privileges

Steve Adams

• Arenado suggested just yesterday that he knows he’ll be a trade candidate this winter as the Cardinals move even more toward the young side of things.Gray didn’t waive his NTC last offseason, but he’s down to one year now and the Cardinals will revisit the idea. Contreras still seems to be holding firm on staying in STL though, at least based on reporting coming from the Cards’ beat.

sox

• Why Raleigh for MVP? Judge has an OPS 200 points higher. It would be virtually unprecedented for someone to win an MVP with numbers that low relative to the runner-up.

Steve Adams

• Because defense matters and because Raleigh has 30-40 more plate appearances, which isn’t a huge margin but when we’re talking about a narrow race, it can be a separator.

MLBTR Fan

• Is 5/125 for Valdez pretty close you think?

Steve Adams

• Light for me.

Bryce Eldridge

• Bryce Eldridge hit one yesterday that would have been a HR in 23/30 ballparks. Unfortunately it was a flyout in AZ. With that said, who do you think ends up with the 3rd NL WC spot out of NYM, AZ, CIN, and SF? If you had to exclude the Mets, who do you think has the best chance to catch and surpass them out of those other teams?

Steve Adams

• I’d still pick the Mets, but this is another topic we discussed a good bit on the podcast episode that’ll run tomorrow morning. I chose the Reds as my favorite to upset the field, if the Mets’ insane swoon persists.

Hot Corner

• With the money ultimately thrown at Schwarber, what is the future for 3B for the Phillies? Bohm is likely on his way out

Steve Adams

• I have long maintained that Bohm is better suited for a bench role. I agree he seems likely to be non-tendered or traded.Phillies will have steep competition for Schwarber, so I wouldn’t necessarily assume he’s back. I doubt they’d sign both, but if Schwarber leaves, I expect Bregman would be firmly in play.

  Other possibilities: Eugenio Suarez, Jorge Polanco, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto or the trade market (Josh Jung, Isaac Paredes, Royce Lewis — to name a few)

sox

• Does Raleigh’s defense make up a difference of 200 points in OPS? Judge is a pretty good defender too, although sure, not as valuable defensively as an elite catcher. fWAR and bWAR both have Judge leading Raleigh by a decent margin. Raleigh’s had a great season, and I’m no Yankee fan (quite the opposite), but seems like highway robbery for Judge not to win another one.

Steve Adams

• FanGraphs has Judge up by 0.7 WAR. I don’t consider that a big margin. B-Ref has a 2-WAR gap, but that’s because of a weird drop in Raleigh’s Defensive Runs Saved grade, despite Statcast still grading him as a premium  defender. I prefer Statcast for catcher defensive grades.Plus, while Judge is a good defender, he’s spent significant time playing at DH while he navigates this arm injury.

  I don’t think there’s anything wrong with preferring Judge, but I’m taking the guy who’s played more often and put up prodigious power output while playing the most physically demanding position on the field for over 1000  innings.

Billy

• I’m smarter than you.

Steve Adams

• Low bar to clear

Ebenezer_Batflip

• Speaking of Breggy, what do you think he’s going to get? I figure he’s expecting 5 years minimum, and at least beating the 28.3m AAV over 6/170 Detroit offered him last year. You think he can get 6/200 after this year, even in spite of his hammy injury?

Steve Adams

• Yeah I have him in the $175-200MM range

MLBTR Fan

• Have MLB execs ever reached out to you guys regarding your opinions or anything on the site etc?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think they care too much about our opinions, but they certainly read the site and would let us know if we botched something particularly egregious regarding their organization. Thankfully that doesn’t happen much. They’re generally more complimentary, though I know there are a handful of teams that don’t especially care for MLBTR haha. Or rather, there have been some teams in the past who did not under since-dismissed bb ops leaders. I’ll leave it at that and let you speculate wildly the rest of the way, haha.

Rangers fan

• Would you keep burger around?  He’s cheap but he has no value.

Steve Adams

• Burger is the type of low-OBP, power-over-hit skill set that doesn’t really do a ton for me. That’s not to say he doesn’t have any value when he’s at his best, but the floor on that skill set is pretty low. I didn’t love the Rangers’ trade for him (or the Marlins’ prior trade for him — but hard to say that one didn’t work out well)

woodruff

• does he stay or leave milwaukee?

Steve Adams

• He’ll decline the mutual option and get a larger deal than the Brewers will offer elsewhere.

Little Johnny

• Does Trout actually get to 400 homers this year? He went 130 at bats without a homer so it is hardly a foregone conclusion..

Steve Adams

• Probably? He had a long slump, sure, but he has 21 bombs on the season and the power is obviously still present. It’s not some foregone conclusion or anything,  but if you made me guess whether Trout hits a HR in the next 12-13 games or gets skunked, I’d take the homer.

4 Finger Charlie

• Which do we see first? An 80 home run season, 300 hit season, or a .400 batting avg season by a player?

Steve Adams

• None of the above? But 80 homers feels more doable than 300 hits or a .400 average. Today’s pitching and defense is too good to get 300 hits or a .400 average ever again. But I’d say 80 homers is only slightly more plausible (again, because pitching is just so good now)

Brewerfan

• % chance Peralta is dealt in the offseason? how would you see the package comparing to the Burnes trade?

Steve Adams

• Certainly feels possible now that he’s down to one year. I think the package would be comparable to that of Burnes, despite the latter having more name value. Peralta will be earning around half what Burnes had coming in arbitration, and his rate stats/velo aren’t really trending down the way Burnes had been.

Alex Anthopoulus

• Which problem do the Braves need to address more urgently? At #3 starter or a capable 4th outfielder that would allow a rotating DH?

Steve Adams

• Pitching

free agency will be boring

• This free agency is boring bc Bregman, Schwarber, and Bichette are likely to re-sign with their current teams and Tucker is likely going to LA

Steve Adams

• I don’t agree on Bregman or Tucker.

MoonbeamMcSwine

• Guardians middle infield question: They have Arias with limited range, a big gun & inconsistent bat playing SS, Rocchio doing all things well.. and Travis Bazzana in AAA… Are you inclined to make this a three headed monster w/ Baz as the primary 2B? or does he get moved to an OF spot? He has the wheels for it…

Steve Adams

• Bazzana at 2B. I don’t think either Arias or Rocchio is the long-term answer at shortstop.
• I don’t think either is a big league caliber hitter, for that matter.

Danny Jansen

• Let it be known, I will rise from obscurity and become a hero this postseason. You heard it here first!

Steve Adams

• Noted, Danny
• I’ll be rooting for you

M’s Fan

• Who wins the AL West?

Steve Adams

• Mariners for me

The savage

• What do the jays do now? Demote a starter to the bullpen?

Steve Adams

• Gausman/Bieber in the front two SP spots in the postseason, then see how Yesavage and the rest look down the stretch. I think it comes down to him versus Scherzer for the final rotation spot in the playoffs, and if Trey doesn’t get the nod, he’ll be waiting as either a piggyback/long-relief option or a potential late-inning monster. Good problem to have.

Logan Gilbert

• What would an extension for me this offseason look like (two more years of club control for the M’s): 5/120 with options on both sides get two-way conversations going?

Steve Adams

• I think he’s too good to take that. He’s already earning $7.365MM. You can conservatively say he’ll make something like $27-30MM total over his final two arb years, so you’re pitching around three years and $90MM for his first three free-agent seasons.Garrett Crochet is in the same service bracket and just got 6/170 from the Red Sox with about 15% the career innings of Gilbert.

  I think Boston went a little wild with that deal, but regardless, 5/120 doesn’t feel strong enough to get Gilbert to sign.

• I’ve got to call it for the week. Tim’s mailbag will run tomorrow, and Anthony will have a subscriber chat on Friday. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and with me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) our Agency Database, our GM Tracker, our Offseason Outlook series and more. Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!

A frustrated Angels Fan

• I don’t get it, this season should have been better. I’m not saying they were supposed to make the playoffs but to not trade outgoing free agents for prospects and then absolutely screw up the number 2 pick in this years draft. I would think the front office and manager /coaches would be changed. What do you think?

Mark P

• Ron Washington’s health situation probably means he’ll return for a proper full season as manager in 2026.  Perry Minasian just signed an extension about a year ago, through 2026 is the last guaranteed year of that extension.

  The bigger problem is still at the ownership level, as the Angels simply lack much direction.  This isn’t at all to say that Minasian is blameless for the state of the roster, but to some extent his hands are tied by Arte Moreno’s wishes.

Guest

• If the Rangers DO make it, is Eovaldi able to be back in time?

Mark P

• Nope. When he went on the IL, there was no “well, if they make it deep enough into October…” qualifier on his status.

Herman

• Hey Angels fan, the Braves did the same dumb stuff not trading Iglesias or Ozuna. Please tell me they don’t go wild and offer Ozuna a contract for 2026?

Mark P

• Ozuna is almost certainly gone.  Much more likely that Atlanta opens up the DH space and payroll space by letting him walk.

Guest

• Can SDP resign King given their other payroll commitments?

Mark P

• Given all of the time King has missed this year, it might’ve helped keep him in the Padres’ price range.  Chances are King is looking at either a one-year contract or a 2-3 year deal with multiple opt-outs, so he can (in theory) re-enter free agency next winter after a full and healthy season to land a bigger long-term deal.
• It’s not entirely out of the question that King accepts a qualifying offer from San Diego, for such a short-term pact.  Or, maybe the Padres work out an opt-out laden new contract themselves.

What? Good News for the Nats? Unpossible!

• No real question, just sharing my real enjoyment of the rookie season that Daylen Lile is having. .288/.339/.457/.796. With 14 doubles, NINE triples, and five HRs in 79 games. Nats 2021 draft is actually looking kinda OK. Which is a refreshing novelty for the team.

Mark P

• He’s looked really good, so that’s at least one silver lining in a grim Nationals season.  At the very least, Lile has put himself in the running for an everyday job next year, even amidst a fairly crowded OF picture

Hud

• Who’s your MVP pick, Judge or Raleigh?

Mark P

• Who would get your vote as AL MVP?

  ---

  Judge (30.1% | 195 votes)

  Raleigh (69.8% | 452 votes)

  ---

  Total Votes: 647

Baseball fan

• How do you think Yesavage does tomorrow? What do you think his role will ultimately be down the stretch and into the postseason, and would you have made the move as Tor?

Mark P

• He’ll ultimately be a reliever, since the Jays have too many other proven veterans as rotation options.  To that extent I’m a little surprised he’s debuting as a starter at all.
• As to whether or not I’d have done it, I guess it can’t hurt?  The Jays’ bullpen has been shaky enough (despite some better results in the last week) that Yesavage might provide some spark, and an unknown quantity for opposing batters

Giants Collapse

• arw the Giants of the last month closer to what they are than that mid-summer run? And how much do they need to do in the offseason to truly compete all of next season? Pitching moves only with the offense they have and Eldridge on the way?

Mark P

• It can be reasonably assumed that Devers and Adames will hit more their usual selves (as they have in the last month or so) in 2026 than they did for much of 2025.  While rotation help is certainly a need, the Giants need to address the outfield, and second base.

UGA 44 Vols 41

• Do you see the Braves having a real chance at Kyle Schwarber and do the Braves trade Sean Murphy this offseason?

Mark P

• Murphy is owed $45MM over the next three years, and he’ll spend the offseason rehabbing from hip surgery.  His trade value is pretty minimal right now, so the Braves’ plan is probably just to keep Murphy/Baldwin as the catcher/DH combo.

  Schwarber would be a great fit basically anywhere, but a particularly great fit in Atlanta.  That said, I find it hard to believe that the Phillies won’t break the bank to re-sign him.

Kris Bubic

• Do I sign an extension this offseason, or bet on myself to deliver a full season of all star stuff and get PAID

Mark P

• As good as Bubic looked this year, missing two months with a rotator cuff strain will throw a wrench into his asking price for any extension talks.

  Given how the Royals have made a point to lock up starting pitchers, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they also talked with Bubic about a long-term deal.  Or, on the flip side, they may be less open to extending Bubic since so much has been invested elsewhere in the rotation.

  Keep in mind that Bubic has already had a lot of ups and downs in his career, plus injury issues.  He might welcome the chance to lock in some life-changing money right now, even if that means he leaves some on the table in foregoing free agency.

Ethan

• Do you see the Guardians non-tendering Nolan Jones next year?

Mark P

• He will be arb-eligible for the first time this winter, and is controlled through 2028.  So that’s enough control at a cheap enough price tag that the Guardians might give him one more chance….but yeah, I’d lean towards a non-tender

RJ

• Do the Angels go after Cody Belinger this offseason? Seems to be a good fit

Mark P

• I’m sorry to keep giving the same answer to Angels fans year after year when they ask about big-ticket free agent pursuits…..but if you’re a star player with options, why choose the Angels over a team with a much more clear-cut chance of winning?  LAA would have to drastically overpay to get onto Bellinger’s radar.

Race of the Century

• Willie Mays Hayes vs Adult Benny the Jet Rodriguez. Who wins?

Mark P

• Outstanding question. My pick is Hayes, because we saw more of him as an adult than we did of Benny the Jet.

Playing Nats GM

• Who is a realistic target for the Nationals this offseason assuming they moderately spend with new front office hire(s)? They can’t go another offseason with some ridiculously low $50M budget again.

Mark P

• I think another lower payroll is very likely, barring a real change of direction from the Lerner family.  It may depend on who the next PBO/GM actually is, but in all likelihood, the Nationals will continue in low-spending rebuild mode, adding just some veterans on one-year deals.

The Shortstop Andres Gimenez

• Are the Blue Jays telegraphing something in subtly moving Gimenez over to SS in Bo’s absence?  I’ve always thought the trade with Cleveland last winter made very little sense if Gimenez wasn’t being seen as the opening day SS in 2026

Sneaky Pete

• Can the Giants front office convince Bo Bichette to take $225mil to play 2nd base?

Mark P

• 2025’s success notwithstanding, I think it’s still likely that Bichette is playing elsewhere next year.  The Gimenez trade was indeed probably a hedge for the Jays, in part because at the time of the deal, Bichette was still a question mark coming off his rough 2024 performance.

  Bichette being open to a 2B position change would also help his overall free agent case, in addition to being the more logical move overall in the long run for him on the field.  Teams that may be hesitant about Bichette’s shortstop glovework, or simply don’t have a shortstop spot open (i.e. the Giants) would be much more willing to engage in his market for Bichette the second baseman

Veteran Righthander

• An also-ran team you think might be a sleeper for next year, based on later-season call-ups and better performances by starters?

Mark P

• This doesn’t really fit your criteria, but the Royals started playing a lot better once they started getting even a modest amount of production from their outfield.  Bolstering the outfield and adding more hitting in general could get KC back into contention next year, since they’ve got the arms.

Dave Dombrowski

• Given Aaron Nola’s decline and Zack Wheeler’s postoperative uncertainty, what are the chances I re-sign Ranger Suarez? Alvarado’s money is a start…

Mark P

• The 2026 rotation looks like Sanchez, Walker, Nola, hopefully Wheeler, and presumably Painter.  Rather than spend a lot of money on reuniting with Suarez, I can see the Phillies adding more of a depth starter type, since on paper, they might have a rotation surplus if all goes well.

  That said, when does it ever go well?  Since unexpected injuries (i.e. Wheeler) or sudden struggles (i.e. Nola) can happen at any time, more pitching is always a need.  Once we get more of a sense of Wheeler’s status, it’ll be easier to predict Philly’s next move

Garrett

• Does Frankie Frisch letting a bunch of his pals into the Hall in the 70s still have an effect today?

Mark P

• It led to an overhaul of how the HOF approaches the veterans committee, though those committees have been altered many times over the years.  Beyond that, I’m not sure it has much impact outside of “who is the worst Hall of Famer?” arguments

Andrew R.

• So Luzardo isn’t in the Phillies rotation plans next year?

Mark P

• Whoops, forgot to add Luzardo to that list!  Yes, he’s obviously part of the 2026 rotation.

Ken

• Jacob Wilson’s defensive metrics at SS leave something to be desired. Should the A’s shift him to 3B and have Darell Hernaiz handle SS until Leo DeVries arrives?

Mark P

• Wilson’s got a good arm, but it’s just a matter of whether or not his range is so limited that 3B would also be a problem.

DT

• Is there a market for Brent Rooker with the emergence of Kurtz and Soderstrom/could he potentially bring back a mid rotation starter type in a deal?

Mark P

• Not that the A’s care a ton of about PB, but they just signed Rooker to a long-term deal last spring.  Trading him less than a year after that signing doesn’t seem too likely.

Guest

• What would a Naylor contract look like with him only being 28? 4 years 90ish

Mark P

• My feeling is he’ll get less than $90MM, though his younger age is a plus.  It’s possibly Naylor might even explore an opt-out in his contract in order to maybe re-enter free agency when he’s still young, but being a 1B-only player might mitigate that flexibility.

Dave

• Walker Buehler a possibility for 2926 Phillies?

Mark P

• Wow, that’s one long career.  Not even Jamie Moyer pitched for 900 years.

  Typo jokes aside, Buehler might get himself into the Phillies’ plans with a good showing in September (or October….), but odds are, Buehler will want a chance at a clear rotation job on his next team.

Richard

• Is Bochy manager of the Rangers in 2026?

Mark P

• There have been some conflicting reports on Bochy for much of the season, so it’s all up to his personal decision.  If he wants to manage another year, it seems the Rangers will happily take him back.  If a new deal is reached, it’s probably likely to be a rolling year-to-year type of pact that gives Bochy flexibility if he decides to retire.

Marlins

• who’s a FA we can sign? We have the SP, and now with Marsee and Stowers we are in wild card conversation with one more legit bat

Mark P

• This will be an interesting offseason in Miami.  The most probable outcome is that the Marlins will continue to play it safe and sign (at most) a couple of veterans to one-year contracts, since the team needs a lot more than just “one more legit bat” to patch up all the holes in the lineup.

Tiger Town

• If Skubal misses any time or his injury lingers, Detroit is cooked, right?

Mark P

• It doesn’t look like Skubal’s injury is all that serious, so the Tigers caught a major break.  But yeah, if he’d been hurt, that alone would’ve almost certainly scorched Detroit’s chances.

Midwest

• What does a Salvy extension look like? Who are most likely targets for the Royals to get them into the post season? Also, is Salvy a first ballot HoF or an eventual famer?

Mark P

• It’s been such a rough year offensively and defensively for Perez that if it was anyone else, it would be an easy call for the Royals to decline his option.  But, since he’s a franchise icon, he’ll be back for $13.5MM (really it’s an $11.5MM decision for the team due to the $2MM buyout).

  The Fermin trade at the deadline basically cemented Perez as returning for at least 2026. An extension isn’t out of the question, but the Royals have enough young catchers in the pipeline that committing too many more years to Perez doesn’t seem feasible.

Verlander

• Is he cooked?

Mark P

• He has a 2.44 ERA over his last 10 starts.  Verlander has quickly gone from “cooked” to “on fire,” and he’s been a big part of the Giants’ surge.

AndthenIsaid

• Will shutting Winn down early hurt his chances at a GG?

Mark P

• Nick Allen has the better overall slate of public metrics, as both DRS and OAA love his work.  Winn is only getting the love from OAA, and Mookie Betts is the inverse, getting great DRS grades but only good OAAA grades.

  If anything, Winn being such a good defender despite playing hurt all year might be a point in his favor with voters

Preller Jr

• Has Laureano played his way out of SD with his well he has done since the trade? He seems to be a great fit in LF and a backup in CF.

Mark P

• That’s a question the Padres won’t have to answer for a while.  They hold a $6.5M club option on his services for 2026, and that’s a lock to be exercised the way Laureano is playing.

Bernie Brewer

• Do the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff exercise the mutual option for next season ?

Mark P

• Given the long history between the two sides and the circumstances, this might be the rare example of a mutual option has a tiny chance of being mutually exercised.

  But, the much more likely scenario is that Woodruff is a free agent.

Aaron

• Do you keep Volpe out for the rest of the season

Mark P

• At this point, yes.  Caballero looks like the better option, and Volpe is just simply not healthy.
• It begs the question of why he wasn’t put on the IL months ago.

Chris Getz

• Do the White Sox pursue anything this offseason? They seem to have the infield and catcher covered, and if Benintendi and Tauchman come back, maybe they’ll need a starter or two to hold down the rotation until some arms start coming back mid-season. Maybe a power hitting 1B? Josh Naylor?

Mark P

• The White Sox aren’t remotely in the position to start signing prominent free agents like Naylor.

DBacks 40-man

• To what degree should I be concerned about the Snakes needing to add 9(!) players back from the 60-day IL at the end of the season? Never mind protecting guys from the R5

Mark P

• A few spots will be opened by non-tenders and free agents, but you’re right, it’s a large number.  Arizona might be a team to watch when it comes to early-offseason trades.

Alpa Chino

• Bees?

Mark P

• Beads?!

Moyor City Beach Bum

• What are your thoughts about Tigers signing Schwarber to DH in Detroit? Move Carp into the OF which is what he wants. Would that be the ideal big bat they need to anchor that lineup for the next 4-5:years?

Mark P

• As noted earlier, Schwarber would help most every team in baseball.  The Tigers included, for the very reasons you mention.  It does add yet another lefty bat to the lineup, but for the sake of adding Schwarber’s power, it’s fine (plus Detroit could then trade another LHH elsewhere).
• Not to sound like a broken record, however, but chances are he’ll stay in Philadelphia.  And, I hesitate to put the Tigers as suitors for any big-ticket free agent until they actually land one, though in fairness they did push for Bregman

Ray

• Besides Tucker, which of the Cubs’ other OFs/DHs figures to be gone next season? I’d like to see Ballesteros stay.

Mark P

• Suzuki and Happ are both free agents after 2026, but they also both have no-trade clauses.  That doesn’t necessarily rule out a trade if either player is open to a move, except it makes things much trickier in finding a deal acceptable to all sides.

Package for the Reds

• What would be a good package for Matt McLain, dudes a hard worker and decent producer but he has fallen off a bit this year

Mark P

• He’s fallen off more than “a bit,” so a trade fit might be another player in McLain’s same situation — a former top prospect who might’ve had some early MLB success but has since struggled.  Basically, the Reds would want someone else that might benefit from a change of scenery.

  The other factor with McLain is that teams might be concerned that his downturn is due to his injuries, or even that his 2023 rookie success was mostly based on BABIP.

My Name Here

• Is Lawrence Butler the new Terrence Long; 6 good weeks a long time ago somehow keeps him on the roster for years.

Mark P

• The big increase in strikeouts and the home/away splits are certainly concerns, but Butler is still a pretty useful player overall.  Perhaps ultimately his optimal usage will be part of a platoon.

Bobby Cox

• Aa made a good move at ss. Does ha take the option

Mark P

• Kim has barely played this year, so it seems likely that he’ll pick up his option and lock in that $16MM

Randy

• What is PB?

Mark P

• Passed balls?  Peanut butter?

  If you mean the PBO acronym I used earlier, it’s “president of baseball operations”

Cat_Herder

• Struggling Tigers fan. This team seems to be so streaky, especially offensively. Can you offer some hope for October?

Mark P

• Skubal appears to be ok, which is the best news Detroit could’ve possibly received.  The trick with a streaky team is that if their next hot streak happens to take place in October, the Tigers will be really hard to stop.

Zakis

• Your prediction for Walker Jenkins next year?

Mark P

• He’ll make his MLB debut sometime in 2026 and (to provide Twins fans with some optimism) be in the running for Rookie of the Year honors.
• After two hours of chatting, it’s time to wrap things up. Thanks to everyone who sent in a question, it’s always great to hear from the readership!
• If you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-9-14-25

Steve Adams

• I don’t see any reason he comes in under Eduardo Rodriguez’s four-year, $80MM deal, and I think he has a good case to push into the Kevin Gausman/Robbie Ray range of $22-23MM annually over five years.

O’s close

• Every time Ryan Helsley gets shelled with the Mets, his prospects for a big free agent contract fade. Looking like a 1-year pillow contract for a team desperate for a closer, like the Orioles, right?

Steve Adams

• His stock was already down after a good-not-great run in St. Louis this year (still don’t know why they didn’t trade him in the winter). It comes down to a matter of preference for him, probably. I’m sure plenty of teams would love to “buy low” on a weighty one-year deal (still worth $10MM+). Helsley could go that route, try to rebound, and look for the big long-term deal next winter. But he’s already 31 (32 next July), and if he takes another step back, his chances of a lucrative long-term deal are shot.There are probably teams still willing to bet on the stuff and track record to put forth two- and three-year deals with more modest AAVs than he’d have gotten with a typical Helsley season. Does he want to go like 1/15 and try again, or would he take 2/26 or 3/30 and max out right now?Those are the scenarios I expect he’ll have to weigh.

Don Kelly

• Is there any chance the Pirates DON’T bring me back next year? If so what would be there reason not to. I’ve managed the team to a 0.491 win % as opposed to Shelty’s 0.316%

Steve Adams

• At this point, I’d be surprised if he’s not back. Your mileage may vary on whether that’s a good or bad thing, but I’m kind of in the “it doesn’t matter all that much as long as Nutting owns this team,” honestly.At the very least, I don’t think Kelly has done anything to hurt his chances of keeping the job for a few years beyond the current season.

Merrill Kelly

• How do you like my chances of a three-year deal?

Steve Adams

• You can see in our handy Contract Tracker (cheap plug!) that he’d be just the third SP in the past decade to get three guaranteed years in a deal that starts with his age-37 season or later
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/contracttracker?name=&team=0&position=S…
• I think two is far likelier
• (Scherzer and Rich Hill were the others … long live Mad Max and Dick Mountain)

Billy Heywood

• Bregman will surely opt out, does he stay or go? What does his next contract look like?

Steve Adams

• Yeah I don’t see any way he passes on the opt-out, barring some awful injury here in the final few weeks.Red Sox will be in the mix to keep him. Cubs, Tigers, Jays, Phillies all seem like viable alternatives. (I’d say Mariners, but they just don’t spend at this level on free agents under Dipoto)A five-year deal in the $160-170MM range feels safe/conservative, but I wouldn’t entirely rule out six years and $30MM+ annually.

Guest

• As a long-time Mets fan, it seems clear that a miss of the playoffs is looming over us 🙂  But should we make it, I know that Tong and McLean are eligible, but will Sproat be eligible for a playoff roster? Otherwise, this may be the most disastrous pitching staff the Mets assembled since the late 1970s.

Steve Adams

• Sproat is eligible, yes. You just need to be in the organization. (I wrote as much in his promotion post the other week) We’ve seen prospects who weren’t on the 40-man roster make their MLB debuts in the playoffs (Alex Kirilloff, Shane McClanahan, Adalberto Mondesi)He’d need to be an injury replacement, technically speaking, but they have no shortage of IL guys whose postseason roster spot he could effectively take over.

Matt M

• Could the Padres look to dump Bogey? Say put him with Salas and J Estrada?

Steve Adams

• He’s still owed eight years and $200MM, beginning in his age-33 season, and has posted basically league-average offensive numbers, Even if they paired him with Salas and Estrada and told another team “He’s all yours if you take the contract,” I highly doubt they’d find a taker at that rate.They can try to dump him, but it’s among the least tradeable contracts in the game.

Brian

• What does Schwarber next deal look like?  33 next year, with one + trait …

Steve Adams

• It’s not one plus trait — it’s one 80-grade trait (power) with plus plate discipline and probably a better hit tool than he gets credit for (not that it’s elite or anything). Every clubhouse he’s ever been in has absolutely raved about the leadership he brings and the benefit of having him around young players.Entering the season, I was squarely at like three years and $80-90MM since players of his age with his limited defensive ability just don’t get paid.I’ve completely thrown that out the window now and think he’s getting $30MM+ per season, probably over four years. If you told me 5/140, I’m not even sure I’d say it’s impossible.

  Some team is going to fall in love with him — in the Phillies case, a big-payroll club is already actively in love with him — and do something crazy.

Ryan

• Would Donovan and Nootbaar be enough for Woo from the Mariners this offseason? Or is more likely Donovan and a prospect?

Steve Adams

• Donovan/Noot isn’t even in the ballpark. And unless that unnamed prospect is like … JJ Wetherholt, I don’t think “Donovan + prospect” gets it done either. Four cheap years of a proven playoff-caliber starter like Woo is going to be priced exorbitantly on the trade market, even if you think he’s more like a very strong No. 2 than a true No. 1/ace (which is where I’m at).

Beachcomber

• Odds on Braves retained Boros client HSK?

Steve Adams

• I think he’ll just pick up the $16MM player option, but sure, there’s a chance they say “yeah this year was bad, but the SS market is terrible and we’re going to try to go get a frontloaded 3/39 with another opt-out,” I suppose. (Or another 2/30ish with an out)

woodruff

• Will I receive and reject a qualifying offer?

Steve Adams

• Yeah

BTinVT

• Bergert got lit up last night. Was going well. Thoughts? Thank you.

Steve Adams

• Lit up last night but otherwise quite good for both KC and SD. My colleague Anthony Franco and I were genuinely surprised the Royals pulled Bergert for Fermin at the deadline — and that was before we knew Kolek was in there too.I get the trade for the Padres but really like it for the Royals and think Bergert has a good chance to just be a solid No. 4 starter for them for the next several years.

Guest

• How does AA redo next season? Pitching or offense or both? They’ve got the money

Steve Adams

• Alex Anthopoulos got a headstart on the Braves’ offseason by claiming Kim. I think the bigger focus will be on deepening the rotation, just given all the injuries they’ve had, but the bench needs a lot of help too. Someone in the Willi Castro mold who can capably handle multiple infield and outfield positions would be prudent (though a lot of teams are going to have interest in Castro)

Justin

• Does Devin Williams end up on the Angels next year?

Steve Adams

• Angels love them some high-profile short-term guys like that

Guest

• OK now that we know Volpe isn’t the answer do we trade him in the office season

Steve Adams

• It wouldn’t shock me. I’d have said the Braves are a good fit before they claimed Kim, but they would be if Kim decides to opt out and test the market. Tigers, Marlins, Nats, Pirates… there are plenty of young clubs that I think  would be pretty intrigued with a buy-low scenario there, and he’s still young enough that he’d net a real return.Side note: remember all the “The Yankees can’t trade either Peraza or Volpe” talk a few years ago? Teams should be more willing to trade prospects than they are (and that extends well beyond the Bronx)

Make MLB Draft Like NFL Draft

• Hi Steve. What do you think of the idea of MLB allowing the trading of draft picks during the draft like in the NFL? I think it could make an added dimension to the July trading deadline and make the draft more exciting?

Steve Adams

• I think it’s nonsensical that MLB teams can’t trade standard draft picks (only the handful of Competitive Balance ones that are awarded every year … and that those can only be traded once)

I wish Mark Reynolds had hit 2 more career HRs

• Travis Bazzana looks like he’s living up to his draft stock now at AAA

Steve Adams

• Guardians’ Opening Day second baseman!

OZ

• Is the turn-around in the performance of Bryce Elder for real?  In a dismal season, his re-emergence and the arrival of Hurston Waldrep have offered a glimmer of hope.  What moves do you envision Alex Anthopoulos making this Winter?

Steve Adams

• Elder has had 4-5 really good starts, but he’s had a sub-.200 BABIP in there and stranded about 82% of his runners. He looks like the same guy to me … not as good as his random All-Star year but not nearly as bad as 2024 or even earlier this season. Modest stuff, decent command, passable but volatile fifth starter.Waldrep looks better, but he’s also getting by with a crazy-low BABIP, crazy-high strand rate and a minuscule homer-to-flyball rate — all of which looks unsustainable. Still more bullish on him long-term, but I wouldn’t expect him to be close to this good

DelightfulDon

• Two Questions: Daylen Lile vs Dylen Crews – They both offer a different perspective and increasing potential. How do you see the Nats utilizing these players in 2026?  My second question is about STL closers.  JoJo and O’Brian have pitched well this year. Historically, between the two O’Brian would be the pick as JoJo is a lefty.  In 2026, how do you foresee the Cards managing their closers?

Steve Adams

• Crews will get every opportunity to be a cornerstone outfielder. Lile feels more like a guy who you’re fine with as your starting LF while he’s cheap but who has a much more limited long-term ceiling.I would imagine that with one year of control remaining, JoJo Romero is getting traded this offseason. Riley O’Brien will be in the ’pen next year, but I would imagine a good bit of roster turnover in St. Louis this winter, so I expect the late-inning relief corps to look pretty different

Dave R.

• Robbie Snelling has a 1.27 ERA in his last 12 minor league starts. Do the Marlins just hate him? I know he’s not on the 40-man, but there are plenty of guys who are that shouldn’t be.

Steve Adams

• Could easily justify calling him up. My assumption is they don’t want to right now since they don’t need to add him to the 40-man this winter to protect him from the Rule 5. Keeping him in AAA effectively buys them an extra roster spot all winter, and they can just select him in camp next year or early in the season.

Early

• Could Lodolo be on the move this coming offseason with two years of control?

Steve Adams

• I could see the Reds listening, for sure. I don’t think they’ll necessarily shop him outright, but with Greene, Burns, Abbott, Lowder, Singer and Petty all around, plus Aguiar and Williamson still in the org and mending from injury, there’s decent pitching depth.Moving Singer is the safer bet, since he only has one pricey year of control left, but Lodolo would net a better return

Turang Test

• Why does the Giants bullpen hate Justin Verlander?  Would his return to SF in ‘26 be contingent on pen upgrades?

Steve Adams

• Yeah, he’s pitched decently but can’t seem to buy a win more often than not. I don’t think that in a vacuum, the bullpen would dissuade him from returning there. But in general, there are a lot of questions about San Francisco’s ability to contend next year, and I could see Verlander simply preferring to sign as a fifth starter for a more clear-cut contender.We’ll see what the Giants do early in the offseason, of course. If they come out and sign Kyle Tucker, Gleyber Torres and Edwin Diaz or something nutty like that, then Verlander obviously thinks differently about their chances of competing than he would at the outset of free agency.Bottom line: Verlander is going to be capped at one year, probably in the $10-15MM range again. A lot of teams will be interested.

Tom Kelly’s blues

• If the Twins move Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan this off season are they writing off 2026 and 2027?

Steve Adams

• Yeah, if they move that pair, they’re basically waving the white flag and committing to a mini-rebuild. If they do go that route, the farm is already stacked — and will be further so due to those returns — and the long-term payroll outlook is nearly blank.I don’t think they’d need a yearslong rebuild, but that’s also an argument against them moving Ryan/Lopez at all. You could easily see them investing in the ’pen, a couple bats and leaning on their farm to quickly turn things around in a so-so division.But based on how the Pohlads have operated in recent years, I have a hard time keeping a straight face while talking about them jumping right back into free agency and win-now mode.

Doug

• Has Cease pitched himself into a 2/3 year deal with opt outs and an AAV in the low to mid $20s?

Steve Adams

• As with Helsley before, he’ll have various scenarios to consider. I do think a two-year deal worth, say, $45MM with an opt-out is one such scenario. Given the durability and the quality of his stuff, I have to imagine there are teams that would still put down a Gausman/Ray-esque five years and $110-120MM on him, thinking that it’s a bargain rate for someone with No. 1 upside and a relatively high floor.My assumption is that between those two options, Cease would go the short-term route and bet on himself, a la Blake Snell a couple winters ago.

Guest

• What happens to Buehler next year?

Steve Adams

• He signs a cheaper one-year deal than the one he did this past winter and takes another shot at bouncing back

Gaurdiansjoe

• With clase facing a ban and Espino to injury prone to be a starter, will we be seeing him head to the bullpen (if he ever gets off the IR)?

Steve Adams

• Espino has pitched like 18 innings since the end of the 2021 season. You can’t bank on ever getting anything from him, but if he ends up quasi-healthy in the next year or so, yeah I would say a move to short relief is in his best interest.

Guest

• Where will the Cardinals stand next year with Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese, and their pitching prospects

Steve Adams

• As I alluded to earlier, I think there’ll be plenty of changes to the roster this winter. Walker, Gorman, Saggese, Graceffo, Nootbaar, Herrera … a lot of the formerly young core seems like it’ll be very much available. The Cards have gotten tons of looks at this group over the years, and while it’s hard to sell low on some formerly well-regarded prospects, it’s easier when the guy making the trades isn’t the one who drafted/acquired them. I think Chaim Bloom will have a pretty active winter.

Strident’sTrident

• Do you think Josh Naylor signs with Seattle Mariners this off season. What’s your prediction on his contract?

Steve Adams

• He’s one of our tougher ones to predict, because the market doesn’t really turn out for 1B-only guys, but he’s one of the steadiest and most consistent bats available and doesn’t turn 29 until June, so age is on his side.I still question whether someone would go 5+ years on him, but four years and $15-17MM per year doesn’t feel outrageous to me.Mitch Garver is the only free agent hitter the Mariners have signed for multiple years under Jerry Dipoto since he took over baseball operations in Seattle a decade ago, so I lean against them re-signing him.

Terry

• Keep hearing Kyle Tucker to Dodgers next year? Your thoughts?

Steve Adams

• I think it’s natural that a lot of people would predict the top free agent to sign with the biggest-spending team, but outside of players in very unique circumstances (Ohtani, Yamamoto), the Dodgers haven’t spent like this in free agency. They usually offer shorter-term deals with higher annual rates.They’re also pretty deep in OF, with Pages, Teoscar, Edman, Zyhir Hope, Josue De Paula. Could always try to dump the final couple years of Teoscar, but the Dodgers don’t stand as the best or most logical Tucker pick to me.
• I’ve got to call it for the week. Anthony will have a chat with Front Office subscribers tomorrow. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and with me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) our Agency Database, our GM Tracker and more.Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!