MLBTR Chats

Steve Adams

• No, I fully expect him to turn down his end of the mutual option and land a multi-year deal beyond what the Brewers feel they can pay. Given how adept they’ve proven at finding affordable starting pitching, paying market price for Woodruff coming off shoulder/lat injuries doesn’t seem like the best use of their resources — fan favorite or not.

Guest

• Rank the projected total contract value of the top SP this winter: Bieber, Valdez, King, and Suarez

Steve Adams

• Framber and Ranger are ahead of Bieber and King based on recent health, age and track record. I’d probably go Bieber ahead of King right now just because King’s health is a total wild card and Bieber is healthy/pitching in October.Valdez and Suarez are both comfortable nine-figure guys for me

Ian

• Any realistic landing spots for Alonso other than the Mets?

Steve Adams

• Plenty. I don’t think he’ll be back in Queens. Red Sox, Angels, Reds, Mariners, Padres, Rangers, Guardians all make varying degrees of sense, though skeptical about the Texas fit after the Bochy departure and the “financial uncertainty” talk. Obviously not all of those teams are realistic fits (Cleveland’s not paying him $100MM+), but having some of those clubs on the periphery of the market is enough to keep some of the others bidding more seriously. Pretty good fit in Boston, where Craig Breslow sidestepped when asked if he could commit to Casas as his 1B next year the other day.

Adge

• Do you like Toronto to sign one of Bieber, Framber, King, Cease, Woodruff,or Ranger,

Steve Adams

• I like the Jays to add at least one notable starter this winter, yeah — whether that’s signing one of those guys or trading for a Mitch Keller, Joe Ryan, whoever.Currently they have Gausman, Yesavage, Berrios, Lauer and a bunch of question marks. (Lauer is a question himself, really)

  And after 2026, Gausman is a free agent and Berrios can opt out. I think they’ll be in the market for multiple SPs

MoonbeamMcSwine

• Does Chaim Bloom “clean house” w/ the Cardinals.. choosing to stock their farm system over competing against perhaps the toughest division in baseball (w/ Milwaukee & Chicago)?

Steve Adams

• I don’t expect too many “untouchables” for the Cards this winter. They’re not moving Masyn Winn or JJ Wetherholt, but beyond the pricey veterans (Arenado, Gray, Contreras) I expect them to be open to offers on Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, JoJo Romero, etc. etc.

Larry from Clarksville

• Can you explain Imanaga’s contract and if you think the Cubs exercise the club option given his alarming home run issues?

Steve Adams

• Cubs have to choose whether to pick up a three-year, $57MM club option — effectively extending him through 2028. If they decline, he can pick up a $15MM player option for 2026 or decline and head to free agency.If Imanaga exercises his player option, the Cubs would have a two-year club option after 2026. If the team declined that, he’d have another player option for 2027.
• I am increasingly coming around on the idea that maybe they just don’t want to commit $19MM per year to him for another three seasons, which would’ve seemed silly to me a few months ago. I was texting a bit with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Anthony Franco about this last night. Tim, being in Chicago and closer to the situation than I am up in St. Paul, said he still leans toward the Cubs taking the safe route and picking up the option, but yeah … them declining is definitely a scenario that seems plausible now in a way that was not true even in like, July.
• I think if the Cubs decline their option, he’ll turn down the player option and do better than $15MM on the open market.

Adam W.

• Will Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman get a bigger free agent contract this winter?

Steve Adams

• Bregman, easily

Craig

• Wandy Peralta of the Padres has a 4.45 million player option for 2026.  Do you think he exercises the option to remain in San Diego or does he decline and become a free agent?

Steve Adams

• I could see it going either way but I lean toward exercising it since he also has a $4.45MM player option for 2027. He’s guaranteed two years and $8.9MM right now, and the last time he was a free agent (two years younger, throwing a bit harder and with a better K%), the market didn’t exactly love him.

Luxury Tax

• Does contract money changing hands a/effect a teams luxury tax total? If the Reds were to add an expensive player via trade this winter but the former team sends some money with that player, how does the luxury tax “hit” get allocated? All on Cinci because they have the player? readjusted for Cinci because their dollars will be smaller than the contract? *Cinci used as a placeholder since we all know they will never approach even the hint of Luxury Tax waters*

Steve Adams

• The money changing hands impacts the CBT hit. If the Cardinals were to trade Sonny Gray back to Cincinnati for a reunion (sticking with your “this won’t happen” motif), the CBT hit would be recalibrated to reflect what’s remaining on the contract. So for the Cardinals, Gray has been a $25MM CBT hit. He signed a three-year, $75MM deal, and CBT hits are based on AAV.When the player is traded, however, the acquiring team is taxed based on what’s left. Gray would be a $40MM CBT hit for the Reds.

  If the Cards kicked in $25MM to help offset that, then he’d still count $25MM against the Cardinals’ tax number and $15MM against the Reds’.

• (That $40MM being derived from Gray’s $35MM salary in 2026 plus the $5MM buyout on his 2027 option)

TxDude

• Will we ever see the Red Sox be a force in free agency like they used to be? I feel like it was always either Boston or New York that all the FAs wanted to sign with

Steve Adams

• They just guaranteed $120MM to Bregman last winter!But I get the question. That was more an opportunistic “soft” (heavy usage of air quotes there, haha) landing for Bregman. I imagine at some point, they’ll be more willing to spend aggressively early in the winter but think the actions of ownership over the past five to eight years have increasingly suggested they prefer not to revisit the “let’s beat the market for a 31-year-old David Price” well anytime soon.
• So … probably somewhere in between the two extremes we’ve seen. Possibly as soon as this winter, since I do think they’ll look into higher-end SPs

Carson

• Is there a team that would be interested in a Josh Jung trade? He surely has some value with 3 remaining years of club control and a relatively cheap projected $3M ARB1.

Steve Adams

• Absolutely. Tigers, Pirates, Nats, Marlins, Mariners, Royals (move Maikel Garcia to 2B) … I can think of plenty who’d love to roll the dice on Jung, and I do think the Rangers will be open to exploring that possibility this winter.

Cleveland

• Think we could pry one of Adley/Neto with our farm?

Steve Adams

• Neto feels like an extreme long shot. Rutschman a bit more plausible, but Mike Elias has spoken repeatedly — including on our podcast — about how he fully anticipates Adley to be catching in Baltimore next year. He’s naturally stopped short of definitively declaring “I will not trade this player,” but they’d be selling low and Basallo hasn’t exactly shown he’s ready for a full season as a big league catcher yet. O’s also probably aren’t all that keen on dealing Rutschman “just” for prospects.(Nor would the Angels be keen on doing that with Neto, for what it’s worth)

PolarBearLeaving?

• You mentioned Alonso and also Bregman.  If what you say is true about Alonso leaving/not being resigned, what about the Mets signing Bregman to play 3rd and Murakami to play 1st.  That would certainly change the vibe and core and you might make up some (but not all) of Alonso

Steve Adams

• Yeah I think the Mets will be in on both Bregman and Munetaka Murakami, who, for those unaware, is a 25-year-old (26 in Feb) corner infielder who’s hit 22 homers in 224 PAs in Japan this season and will be posted in the offseason. He also has significant defensive and strikeout concerns, but he’s still going to get paid by a major league team because of the 80 raw power.

John

• Could Cedric Mullins return to the Orioles?

Steve Adams

• If he’s out there in February and hasn’t found a deal to his liking, sure I can see him going back for a year. I wouldn’t predict it as likely, but it’s not as through any bridges were burned there (at least not that I’m aware of)

Mr. Skenes

• Am I pitching for the Pirates next year?

Steve Adams

• Yyyyyyyup

Allen

• Brooks Lee didn’t make a claim to his SS spot after the Correa trade. Are there any SS available in trade? Preferably in the Twins budget

Steve Adams

• They’ll give Lee a full year to show whether he can hack it, and if not, they’ve got Kaelen Culpepper, another former first-rounder and top-100-y guy, coming along relatively quickly

@tayyyburrr

• Lifelong Padre fan here. Does AJ Preller get any credit for at least trying to build a winner?  I know “we” haven’t won anything, but being an annual “contender” has to count for something, right?!?

Steve Adams

• Gets credit from me. I wish there were more GMs/presidents of baseball ops like Preller, Dipoto, Dombrowski, etc.
• I feel like so many baseball ops leaders today operate with a risk-averse approach, so as not to risk their job security. And that’s understandable! These guys are paid enormous seven-figure salaries. But it’s also boring. Give me chaos. Always chaos. It’s more fun. Preller is pure entertainment. And he’s better than his detractors give him credit for.

Craig Breslow

• Would the Royals take Duran straight up for Bubic?  Should I?

Steve Adams

• The Royals would. The Red Sox wouldn’t.
• Three years of control remaining for Duran to one for Bubic.

BeBopCola

• What was your preseason World Series pick and what is it now?

Steve Adams

• Dodgers over Mariners so now I have to stubbornly stick to it!

GM job

• As an impartial non Rockies fan. who would want their GM job given the terrible state of affairs throughout their organization ?  They have almost no chance of making the playoffs for many years in the NL West with LA,SD, AZ and SF.  Thanks.

Steve Adams

• There’s only 30 of these jobs, first and foremost. So yes, plenty of people would want it. Beyond that, imagine being able to claim your legacy as the person who finally brought winning baseball to Colorado. You’d be a legend.Any front office leader is hypercompetitive and driven by challenge. Turning the Rockies around is an Everest-ian challenge (to use a terrible mountain-related analogy)

Jim

• What prospects would the A’s have to give up in order to get Brady Singer from the Reds?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Singer would cost a ton in trade. He has a little surplus value, probably, but one year of him at $12MM … it’s not like he’s some raucous, unmitigated bargain. Couple middle-of-the-pack prospects (40 FV types) probably gets it done. He’d cost less than Springs cost them last winter.

Natitude

• Zac Gallen a fit in Washington?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think the Nats will be aiming that high in free agency, but any pitcher who can be reasonably expected to pitch anywhere close to league-average innings is a “fit” in D.C. based on what they have on the depth chart right now.Still amazed that the Nats (and Rockies, especially) passed on Alek Manoah. Don’t get me wrong, he’s probably just bad now, but for a bit more than $2MM, why not take the shot? He has minor league options left!

Cards

• Am I the only cardinal fan that still has high hopes for Gorman? Sure he strikes out a ton and has a low average but I still believe there’s a 40 homer slugger around the corner.

Steve Adams

• I think there should be a balance between “having hopes” and “having high hopes.”Hoping for Gorman to turn into a decent strikeout-prone slugger who’s a defensive liability but hits righties well enough to be a 2-ish win player, sure. But a 40-homer season from a guy whose power has dropped in consecutive seasons and who’s fanned in 34% of his career plate appearances feels ambitious to me.

PJ

• You see Bendix aggressively trying to move Sandy this offseason or has he backed off on the prospect?

Steve Adams

• I see him listening to whatever offers are presented and being content to carry Alcantara into the season if he’s getting low-balled coming off an uneven season.

Hector Villanueva

• Where are earth so the Cubs play Moises next year. I think he’s ready, but he’s not an MLB catcher, they have Busch at 1st, and Suzuki at DH.

Steve Adams

• They don’t need to pencil him in for 600 PAs. They can option him, and injuries will create openings for him. Plus, they could wind up playing Suzuki in the OF more if (when?) Tucker signs elsewhere. Obviously they still have Alcantara, but he didn’t exactly set the world on fire in AAA this year.Even if they were to go with Happ-PCA-Alcantara in the outfield and Suzuki at DH, there’s still a path for Ballesteros to get 300+ plate appearances next year with minimal time at catcher. And come 2027, Happ and Suzuki are free agents, which only makes it easier to get Moises into the lineup.

HomerHanky

• Besides a new manager, what do YOU believe are the Twins biggest needs this off-seeason?

Steve Adams

• An entire bullpen

Yates to Rangers?

• Hi Steve. With Kirby Yates having a lousy year with the Dodgers, do you think a reunion to be the Rangers closer is possible?

Steve Adams

• Plausible enough, but no reason to necessarily think it’s likely

Melchez

• The Rockies need some talent… 1. Trade Kyle Freeland for prospect(s)… 2. Sign aging free agents looking for a chance to build up value and flip at deadline (1B Carlos Santana, DH Marcel Ozuna, CF Cedric Mullins) and 3. what’s stopping them from loading up on rule 5 guys?  They have very little on the farm that’s close.  Rockies have a long road ahead.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Freeland nets them much in a trade.A 40-year-old Carlos Santana’s not getting anything at next year’s deadline. Mullins, sure … adding some closer-to-prime-aged pillow guys like that makes sense, but those guys will have understandable concerns about playing at altitude regularly and what it does to recovery and performing on the road.

  Rule 5? Sure, go nuts. They should have several roster spots to work with, and I agree, why not grab two, three — even four guys if you like them better than what’s in your system? Obviously they won’t all stick, but might as well take some looks in spring training/early in the season.

Pontiac bandit

• Steve, forgot about Owen Cassie in the Cubs OF next year, higher grade prospect then Alcantara.

Steve Adams

• Ah yeah true, brain fart. Point generally still stands though. Two OF spots open post-2026, and injuries create ample opportunity, especially when the OF/DH is a carousel of 3-4 guys.
• Or rather a carousel of 4-5 guys. Words. Numbers. Hard. Brain no work good.

Roper

• Could the Redbirds and Rangers match up on a Gray-Semien trade?

Steve Adams

• The Cardinals want to create more opportunities for younger players. Bringing Semien aboard when he’s signed for three more years doesn’t really accomplish that. They’d much prefer to just keep Gray and have him eat innings until the deadline.

I don’t know’s on 3rd

• This the year the M’s acually spend big on a hitter(not like the 2/24  Garv got)??

Steve Adams

• It’s just not really Jerry Dipoto’s preferred method of team-building, but I could see them at least trying to re-sign either Geno or Naylor (former feels likelier, given the prior connection and the fact that he’ll naturally be capped to a shorter term because of the age discrepancy)

Cardinals

• What team do you think would actually take the contract of Sonny Gray? Mets, Giants, Phillies, Braves or Orioles have the money, maybe the Angels or Tigers as outside?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think anyone would take the whole contract
• $40MM for one year is too steep for Gray — particularly for a team like the Mets or Phillies, who are third-time luxury payors in the top tier of penalty. It’s a 110% tax for them, meaning Gray costs them $84MM for one year.
• Cardinals need to eat $10-12MM or so just to move him for no return. Probably $15MM+ to get any kind of semi-decent prospect.

Twins fan

• Do you think Lewin Diaz will get MLB interest again after his 50 homer season in Korea?

Steve Adams

• I do
• Teams passed him around waivers like 10 times a few offseasons ago because they love the glove at 1B and he had power upside. He’s still under 30. I don’t think he’s going to sign a mammoth contract or anything, but yeah I think he has a real chance to get a major league deal

Still-Krazy

• Does Ke’Bryan Hayes have any trade value

Steve Adams

• Reds took basically the whole contract and gave up an actual prospect at the deadline. Hayes hit better in CIN than in PIT (albeit not much better). He could have some marginal value, but the Reds don’t make that trade if they’re not interested in keeping him for the foreseeable future.

dub nation..under God

• can Reds…in any way….sign Schworber?

Steve Adams

• Sure. If they offer more money than the Phillies. Simple, right?! Haha… It’s not likely, but hey, Schwarber’s from Cincinnati area.I would not bet on it, but I imagine they’ll talk to him and give it some kind of try.

Dale

• Would a Taylor Ward for Brady Singer trade make sense?

Steve Adams

• I think there’s some sense to that, yeah.

pitching chaos for everyone

• The best ways to improve Mets defense is let Alonso leave, trade for Hoerner, and move Soto to primary DH. Any of those remotely likely?

Steve Adams

• I think they’ll let Pete leave. The others, not particularly likely.

My name jeff

• Where will nolan arenado get traded to this winter, and what will it take to get him

Steve Adams

• This is framed like Arenado has positive value. He does not. It’ll take the Cardinals eating $30MMish of his remaining contract.

Oz

• No mention of Raisel Iglesias.  What kind of contract does he get?

Steve Adams

• No reliever in the past decade has gotten more than 2 years for a free agent contract or extension starting at age 36 or older. So Iglesias is probably capped at two years. The high end of this range is Blake Treinen getting two years and $22MM total.I think Iglesias comes in around 1/14 or 2/20.
• (If you like that sort of answer, you can research stuff like that within seconds in our Contract Tracker!)

Dave

• Do the Royals cut bait on India or pay him 9 million and hope he doens’t suck again?

Steve Adams

• Non-tender

Ang T

• Would adding 1 yr/$25M be enough to keep Edwin Diaz from opting out of his contract with the Mets?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think so, but he re-upped in Queens really quickly last time, so maybe he’s just motivated to stay put. But I think his market value is $80MMish over four years, and tacking on 1/25 really “only” brings him closer to 3/60.

Jason

• does trevor larnach have any trade value or is he a non-tender?

Steve Adams

• Can see him being flipped  for a nominal return. I don’t think he’s netting much, but low-spending/payroll-crunched teams might be intrigued as a change-of-scenery guy and his arb price is under $5MM
• I’ve got to call it for the week.Tim’s mailbag will run later today (I think) or possibly tomorrow, and Anthony will have a subscriber chat on Friday. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.

  If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut (during the season), weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and with me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) our Agency Database, our GM Tracker, our ongoing Offseason Outlook series and more.

  Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!

Jim

• When do the Arb projections drop?

Mark P

• I believe they’re coming this week, and possibly as early as tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Mariners

• I’m both nervous and confident…. which one wins out versus the tigers?

Mark P

• Losing Game 1 was a real blow to the Mariners with Skubal going tonight.  If the Tigers are up 2-0 with the series going back to Detroit and Skubal on tap again for a hypothetical Game 5, the M’s are in major hot water.

Ang T

• Is it a given that Vientos replaces Alonso if Pete leaves in free agency?

Mark P

• In my Mets offseason outlook from the other day (self-promotion, woo hoo!), I suggested that the Mets could sign a veteran left-handed bat to platoon with Vientos.  Someone like a Cody Bellinger who can play both 1B and the outfielder would be ideal, though Bellinger is a nice fit on a lot of teams.

  Vientos’ offense was so lackluster in 2025 that if you’re the Mets, I’m not sure how confident you can be in just handing him the first base job outright.

Dylan beavers

• Do I get extended this off-season

Mark P

• /checks MLBTR Agency Database
  /sees Beavers is repped by someone other than Scott Boras

  Yes, it’s possibility!  Now that Basallo has been extended, you wonder if that breaks the seal on the Orioles locking up more players from this second wave of the young core.  Beavers is repped by the Beverly Hills Sports Council, who has negotiated other early-career extensions for the likes of Jackson Chourio and Kristian Campbell

Mets fan

• Should I expect the mets to have the same coaching staff layout with a pitching and hitting coach with an asst for each or is it possible we get an associate manager, offensive coordinator, field coordinator, etc?

Mets shakeup

• Were you surprised to see to the Mets fire so many coaches? Hefner had a pretty good reputation as a pitching coach before this year and Stearns didn’t do a good job of giving him much to work with this year.

Mark P

• Speaking of people who won’t be unemployed for long, I expect Hefner to quickly land on another MLB staff for 2026.  I agree with the assessment that the Mets’ pitching struggles were more due to personnel and a flawed approach to the rotation more than anything Hefner did.  (That said, there’s also the caveat that I don’t know what was happening within the Mets clubhouse.)

  As to the team’s coaching titles, it’s possible they might switch up some titles and responsibilities, perhaps to more directly specify coaches into specific duties.  Probably depends on who they end up hiring.

Bobby Cox

• I thought Skip S would have been a good choice for us. I dont want Ross, maybe DeRo or eddie p. How about you?

Mark P

• A few months ago, I predicted that John Gibbons would be the Braves’ next manager.  I’ll continue to stand by that call in the wake of the news that Gibbons is leaving the Mets’ bench coach job.

Kwan

• As rough as the outfield situation had been in Cleveland, it feels like they hang on to me for this next season.

Mark P

• Kwan is arb-controlled through 2027, and the Guardians traditionally wait to deal a player prior to his final year before free agency. So unless the Guards are out of the race at the deadline (like this year!….wait….), Kwan will probably get traded next winter

Guardians of the Galaxy

• Given the absolutely abysmal offense displayed by the Guardians this season, do you see ownership finally opening their wallets at least a little to acquire some reliable offense (OF/INF) or should we expect another year of bottom-dwelling offense while we waste quality pitching and JRam’s prime?

Mark P

• You’re preaching to the choir on this.  Moving Gimenez’s contract and most of Straw’s contract opened up a lot of extra money for the Guardians, plus Emmanuel Clase’s contract might well be wiped off the books by a suspension.

  This is a team with only $37.2MM committed to next year’s payroll even with Clase’s money still considered.  Even with a gigantic arb class pushing that number up, you’d think there would be some urgency to bring in some kind of proven bat.

Rodney

• The Jays fired on all cylinders the first two games against the Yanks, but baseball fortunes can turn on a dime. Where does your biggest fear lie with the team?

Mark P

• As we saw today, Toronto’s relief corps is very shaky.  That doesn’t bode well for the bullpen game the Jays have lined up for Game 4, if the Yankees can win Game 3.

  Speaking as a Jays fan, I’m obviously very happy with the series thus far, but I’m absolutely not counting my chickens yet

Stevie Wonder

• Do the Royals resign Jonathan India?

Mark P

• I’d think pretty hard about non-tendering him.  It would be a tough pill to swallow just a year after trading away Singer for him, but India had a sub-replacement season. The money KC can save with a non-tender can be spent on a better replacement for 2B, or for outfield help

Tigers Rock!

• Favorite Detroit rockers?  Funkadelic, the Stooges, MC5, or Alice Cooper?

Mark P

• I assume that by “rockers” you’re not counting umpteen incredible Motown artists (like Stevie Wonder, who just asked that Royals question).  If so, my answer is the White Stripes.

Mark

• Would the Rangers move Langford? What do you think they would ask for from the Red Sox? I think his bat would be special in Fenway.

Mark P

• Firstly, Langford is maybe the last person the Rangers would trade.  Secondly, the Red Sox have an outfield surplus already.

Angels fan

• What are the playoffs that this chat is speaking of?

Mark P

• Cast your mind back to the magical 2002 season…

Blake

• With the Texas Rangers seemingly heading toward austerity, do you think they will try to move any surprising names this off-season?

Mark P

• Loosely translated, this means “which of the big four contracts do you think is most movable”?

  Semien is least-tradable, Seager is next, and the Rangers would get a lot of interest if they shopped deGrom or Eovaldi.  Frontline pitching is always valuable, even for two veterans with injury histories making significant money.

  DeGrom getting through 2025 healthy is a big plus for his market, and Eovaldi was incredible when healthy this year.  One wrinkle for Eovaldi’s trade market is the possibility of a sports hernia surgery, so teams may be unsure about how his offseason routine will be disrupted

Angry Fan

• Have you ever witnessed a fanbase as mad as Pittsburgh Pirates fans currently are?

Mark P

• I’m not even sure if the Pirates are the angriest current fanbase.  Angels, Rockies, Twins, White Sox, etc.

Brewers Fan

• I’m not sure who you had going into it, but if Chourio missed the rest of it, does that change your view of the series?

Mark P

• I still think Milwaukee wins with or without Chourio, but obviously losing him would be a blow

Verlander

• Do the giants resign me?

Mark P

• They need pitching and JV did well enough in 2025 that you’d assume the Giants would welcome a reunion.  The ball might be in Verlander’s court about whether he’d like to return to a familiar spot, or perhaps seek out a team better positioned to contend

Don Zimmer

• PCA has peaked, and his career year is over. He hits 230 vs LHP and is an easy out vs same. What can we get if we trade him in Dec?

Mark P

• The Cubs would get an absolute haul for a pre-arb player who’s turning 24, and who (at minimum) is a speed demon with Gold Glove-level defense in CF

  As much as PCA tailed off in the second half, there is absolutely zero chance the Cubs move him.

Frank Drebin Jr

• Have you changed your World Series prediction yet or are you still confident?

Mark P

• My preseason pick was Dodgers/Royals.  I won’t lie, I don’t love KC’s chances of reaching the Series.  Not being in the playoffs is a real setback.

David

• Wells or Rice as the Yankees’ primary catcher next year?

Mark P

• Wells, with Rice moving in as the primary first baseman and occasional backstop

Rockies Front Office

• Who do you feel will be the front runners for the Rockies front office role?

Rockies FO

• Any rumblings on the person to replace Bill?

Mark P

• This will be one of the more interesting GM searches in a while, just because it’s so unlike the Rockies to go outside the organization for a hire.  Who knows what their criteria might be, or how they’re approaching this process.

  I tend to agree with the idea that they’ll turn to someone who has worked with the Rox in the past.  For all the Thad Levine buzz, his tenure in Colorado only slightly overlaps with the Monforts’ purchase of the team, so I’m not sure he’s exactly the known quantity to the Monforts that people think.

Bobby Cox

• I could see Sox signing ozuna to a 1 year deal. They could use him

Mark P

• The Red Sox?  They probably need to keep the DH spot open, either for Yoshida or to cycle multiple guys through.

  The White Sox?  Hey, why not, as a veteran bat who can probably then become trade bait at the deadline.  Even for Chicago, however, they might prefer to keep their DH spot free for getting Quero and Teel both into the lineup as much as possible

Torii Hunter

• Should I add wash to my staff if I am the manager?

Mark P

• Speculative on my part, but my guess is that Washington wouldn’t want to return to a team that just fired him as manager.

  Wash’s most probable landing spot might be back in Atlanta as a coach on the new manager’s staff.  As for the Angels, I do think that if the new skipper is a first-timer like Hunter or Pujols, hiring an experienced bench coach is a must.

Guest

• Don’t get Cardinals thinking are the going to youth or not

Mark P

• They certainly are this time around.  Given how the veterans with no-trade clauses are all at least “thinking about” waiving their protection, the writing is on the wall about the rebuild.

Phil

• Which MLB veteran do you see having the most difficult time finding a Major League contract next season, similar to the way that JD Martinez and Anthony Rizzo did?

Mark P

• We just mentioned Ozuna in a recent question, and he might fit the bill.  His numbers were okay (21 homers, 114 wRC+) but way down from his previous two seasons.  Ozuna turns 35 next month, he’s a DH-only player, and his past off-the-field issues make him a no-go for some teams automatically.

Ang T

• Which route will the Mets go to acquire a staff Ace?

Mark P

• Valdez might be the closest thing to a clear-cut ace in this year’s free agent market, given the questions about Cease and Gallen.  (And Tatsuya Imai, who is an unknown against North American hitting.)  So based on scarcity alone, the Mets are likelier to go the trade route for frontline pitching.

Joe

• Are the Rangers able to move any of their big contracts before next season?  If so will the return be worth it?

Mark P

• I think there’s some logic in selling high on DeGrom or Eovaldi, because as great as they looked in 2025, the injury risk won’t just go away.

  The problem is that if you deal one of those two, that opens up yet another hole in a rotation that may lose all of Mahle, Kelly, and Corbin to free agency.

Ebenezer_Batflip

• Seems like everyone said Story would almost never opt-out, but his season has substantially exceeded expectations and he only has 2 years left on his deal, which would end during a potential CBA lockout. Feels like he’s the kind of guy who would prioritize getting a 3rd of 4th year over AAV money. What do you think? Story opts out or stays in Boston?

Mark P

• Story is owed $25MM in both 2026 and 2027, plus he’ll get another $5MM on his buyout of a $25MM club option for 2028.  So that’s $55MM left on the table if he does opt out, and his contract does last through the end of the CBA following the 2026 season.

  Story turns 33 next month, and he’s coming of a 101 wRC+ season.  The counting numbers look better than the overall offensive impact for Story, and his defense really dropped off significantly, to boot.  All in all, I suspect he stays in his contract, since his market might not be all that robust.  Besides, why not stick around in Boston on a very promising young team?

• Worth noting that if he did opt out, the Red Sox could override his decision by guaranteeing Story’s 2028 salary.  But, I think we can rule that scenario out.

Felix

• Did Shane Bieber show enough in his abbreviated 2025 to get a multi-year pact?

Mark P

• 40 1/3 innings of 3.57 ERA ball, with pretty good peripherals (especially a great walk rate) but a lot of homers allowed.  A lot of teams would happily give Bieber multiple years off that production.

Hits Like Rays

• Chances that the Rays keep Christopher Morel around next year for only about $800k?

Mark P

• Morel’s arb-eligible salary won’t be much, but he also hasn’t shown much since arriving in Tampa Bay.  The Rays have their usual gigantic arbitration class that I have yet to entirely sift through, but between their usual slate of trades and non-tenders, I’d lean towards Morel being elsewhere in 2026

Marlins

• Willson conteras as our trade. His contract is underwater, but he supplies defense and offense at first, send lottery ticket for STL to pay half the contract. Sign a good RP and we are a wildcard team

Mark P

• I don’t even think I’d call his contract underwater, considering that Contreras has been quite steady over his three years in STL.

  Miami is an interesting team to watch this winter since they “might” pivot to a bigger move or two if they feel they can legitimately contend.  I do kinda think they’re more prone to play it more conservative, but since we don’t know how Bendix will operate once he gets the green light to build a competitive team (or spend), it’s a bit of a question mark

• Plus, don’t forget that Contreras has a no-trade clause.  So he’d have to be convinced that the Marlins will be pushing to contend before he signs off on such a trade.

Cry young

• Crochet vs skubal but what about Chapman or freid?

Mark P

• Both have good cases for top-five finishes, even if I think most voters will favor starters over Chapman.

Larry

• Is AJ Preller’s job safe? Seems like it is too late to move on after letting him gut the farm .

Mark P

• Preller’s contract is up after the 2026 season, so ownership will be making a decision on his future sooner rather than later.  My guess is that he’ll get another extension since the Padres keep winning, even if they haven’t broken through for consistent playoff success

Ohtani

• MVP again as this king deserves or some other mortal?

Mark P

• Going forward, we should be thinking about what it’ll take for Ohtani to “not” win MVP, assuming he stays healthy.  If it wasn’t for Judge having one of the best hitting seasons of all time, Ohtani would have four MVPs in a row and be rolling towards a fifth.

Mariners

• Polanco seems to have skubals number

Mark P

• In these chats last winter and spring, I vaguely recall naming Polanco re-signing with the Mariners as perhaps the offseason’s most baffling move.

  Whoops!

Trip

• Edwin Diaz to the Braves possible?

Mark P

• The Braves generally don’t go quite that big in free agency, and Diaz will be looking for a deal at least matching his current contract.  I don’t see a fit, and if I had to pick Diaz’s 2026 team, my guess is a reunion with the Mets

Tiny Tigs

• Any chance ownership and the front office stop sitting on their hands and sign some real vets to compliment the young players on the team? Sick of 1 year deals, expecting to make a legit push when it matters

Mark P

• In fairness, Detroit did try to sign Bregman, so they at least attempted to make a splashier long-term signing.  Wouldn’t shock me if Bregman is on their radar again this winter, as well some other bigger names.

  A full season of competitive baseball and the September scare should probably convince ownership to spend a little more, though we should wait until the Tigers’ season is actually, y’know, over.  If they make the ALCS or better, our takes on Detroit’s strategy will look a lot different.

Squatter Talk

• Was Shea Langeliers’ season under appreciated?

Mark P

• Absolutely, in part because the A’s generally fly under a lot of fans’ radar

CT

• Do you think Shane McClanahan could be traded if he pitches well next season?

Mark P

• McClanahan is arb-eligible for the third of four trips this winter, and will get just a minimum raise since he didn’t pitch this year.  All his injuries have pushed his salaries down enough that he likely won’t get expensive enough for the Rays to pursue trading.
• Say he returns to have a full and healthy 2026 with ace-level numbers.  That bumps his 2027 salary up to perhaps $8MM or $8.5MM, which even by Rays standards is something they an afford for a frontline arm.

Andy

• Is Muncy an automatic to have his option picked up by the Dodgers?

Mark P

• Yep

Jay

• So Trey Day is pretty fun – wouldn’t you say?

Mark P

• Just an unreal start.  A kid with all of 14 MLB innings to his name just dominates the Yankees to that extent…you can’t make this up.

Slick Ric

• I think you are short changing how angry Pirates fans are.

Mark P

• While there’s undoubtedly a lot of (deserved) frustration in Pittsburgh, there are unfortunately a lot of fanbases that are irate at their teams right now.

Kyle

• Do the Red Sox go into 2026 with Casas penciled in at 1B or do they look for an external option?

Mark P

• Casas will probably get one last chance for next year.  He might be a trade candidate this winter, except the Sox would be selling low since Casas barely played last year.

Ray

• In addition to Tucker, who else isn’t with the Cubs next season, Alcantara, Ballesteros or Caissie, or more than 1 of the latter?

Mark P

• As in, you’re assuming the Cubs make another big trade of a prospect (or two?) in exchange for a star veteran?  It’s a possibility, except with Happ/Seiya both just a year away from free agency now, the Cubs are going to be less keen on moving an outfield prospect

Bucco Fan

• Which teams do you consider to be the best trade match for a Pirates team with SP depth?

Mark P

• Mariners, Red Sox, Mets….basically any club that has a distinct need in the rotation, and has a prospect pool that is generally deeper in top bats than top arms.

  Cardinals or Cubs maybe fit here except they’re division rivals.  Dodgers technically fit except their best position-player prospects are a few years away, and the Pirates need help now.

• We’re over two hours now, so it’s time to wrap this one up.  Thanks so much for all your questions, and more chatting should be taking place next weekend!
• If you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-10-05-25

Meow

• 2-3 months back I asked what could possibly stop the run that the Tigers were on for the AL Central. You answered “The Cleveland Guardians” which seemed laughable at the time. So 1) I apologize for laughing and 2) which do you think has been more remarkable, the Tigers plummeting downwards or the Guardians surging upwards?

Steve Adams

• Maybe Anthony or Mark answered that way, but I will be the first to say I did not have this type of foresight and that I’m as amazed/impressed/dumbfounded as anyone else, ha
• I don’t know that I’d have been completely stunned if you told me Detroit slowed down in the second half. I found their deadline astonishingly underwhelming. But the sheer magnitude of the collapse is still a surprise, so I have to give it to them

Natitude

• What’s your take on Dylan Crews?  A universally highly regarded prospect with a difficult beginning to his career.  Cornerstone foundation piece or no?

Steve Adams

• Toss out his first two weeks of the season and he’s an above-average hitter with good batted-ball metrics and a lower-than-average strikeout rate. I think he’s an everyday outfielder for Washington, and a pretty good one (health-permitting, but you can say that about any prospect)

Hunt for Reds October

• You have to give the Reds kids credit for playing their hearts out even though they got no help from the front office.  That starting rotation may make it interesting if they make the postseason, don’t you agree?

Steve Adams

• Love their rotation and would be really excited to watch them in a postseason setting. Hunter Greene is just so good, and while Chase Burns is pitching in relief right now, that looks like such a fun 1-2 combo for the foreseeable future.The lineup is underwhelming, though, and gives me plenty of concern for how they’d fare in a postseason setting where the baked-in off-days allow their opponents to more heavily lean on their top power arms.

Sox

• Red Sox have some good young arms – Tolle, Early, Harrison. How does the rotation shake out next year? I assume Giolito will walk. Crochet and Bello at the top followed by the young guys. Do they add Valdez or someone else in free agency? Take a swing at Joe Ryan again?

Steve Adams

• I think they’ll take a swing at Ryan again, yes, and more broadly just be focused on adding at least one starting pitcher. Tolle, Early and Harrison (especially the former two) are a nice trio to dream on. Crochet is an ace. Bello has been very good. Patrick Sandoval will hopefully be healthy. But so much of the rest of their depth has gone down with major injuries, and you simply can’t bank on a group as small as the one we just ran through staying healthy all year.Even if they add a starter of some note — say they sign one of Merrill Kelly, Tyler Mahle, Zach Eflin, etc. — you can probably still get 100+ innings for each of Tolle, Early and Harrison if they all earn it with their performance. Inevitably, someone’s going to need a month for a hamstring or oblique strain, or for shoulder fatigue, or something. And there’s the obvious risk every team runs of something more severe wiping out a whole season for one or more of those arms.

Stevie & The Sterns

• Our repeat of the “sign a value SP who will over achieve” experiment didnt prove successful the second time around. Will we finally spend on a premium arm (who’s also not 45 years old)?

Steve Adams

• Kodai Senga, Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Brandon Sproat, Sean Manaea, Jonah Tong, Christian Scott and Tylor Megill all still in the rotation mix for next year (maybe not Megill, depending on how the elbow progresses). David Stearns has never shelled out a long-term deal for a starting pitcher, either in Milwaukee or in two offseasons in Queens.I won’t be surprised at all if they add another starter, but I don’t think they’re going to throw five years at Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, etc.

Guest

• *insert generic question here asking about your personal feelings about the ABS system being implemented*

Steve Adams

• Good with me. Some of the changes the game has implemented over the years still irk me (free runner in extra innings, barf) — but pitch clock, ABS, sign me up. It’s frustrating watching umps get the calls wrong, and the technology to correct it is there.

Sir Nerdlington

• Ever since Theo put the ’our offense broke’ into the universe the Cubs offense has proven him correct every September. With the near given that Tucker lands elsewhere, where can they upgrade? Lots of very good, not great players on the offensive side of the ball.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Matt Shaw has done enough to cement himself as the 3B of the future. Alex Bregman will be out there and in the Cubs’ price range. Easy enough to find room for an outfielder, too. They have Happ, PCA and Suzuki heading into 2026, but Happ and Suzuki are free agents in the 2026-27 offseason and PCA’s showing over the past couple months shows there’s still room for improvement there, talented as he is.

MVP

• End of season MVP check, Judge or Cal?

Steve Adams

• I’m a Raleigh guy but it’s so close that I have zero pushback for anyone who says Judge. There are some great seasons beyond that pair — Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez, Jeremy Pena — but it has to be Judge or Cal this year. They should get all of the first- and second-place votes between them, and beyond that, I don’t think there’s really a “bad” choice.

Galcian

• Does any team even want Arenado this winter?

Steve Adams

• He’s hitting .236/.290/.365. I know he’s a big name with a plus glove and great contact skills, but he’s making almost no impact with the bat. That contract is almost entirely underwater.

Steinbrenner’s ghost

• Who is my doddering son more likely to re-sign: Chisolm or Bellinger?  Or does he finally start acting like me and pay them both?

Steve Adams

• Jazz is still under club control through 2026.
• I can see the Yankees re-signing Bellinger, but there’ll be ample competition. Might depend on the Grisham qualifying offer scenario. I think they have to make it. He feels like he’ll reject, but I don’t know that that’s a total given, and if he accepts it becomes harder to justify throwing five years at Bellinger when you’re already going to have Grisham, Judge, Dominguez, Stanton and (eventually) Spencer Jones in the OF mix — with other needs to address elsewhere on the roster.

Cherrington

• Ashcraft, Chandler, Jones, Skenes, now Barco. Sure seems like Bucs could deal a pitcher for a bat.

Steve Adams

• Plus Keller, Oviedo, Burrows, Harrington and this year’s top pick, Seth Hernandez. Probably some other minor league arms I’m blanking on.
• Yes, they should trade an arm for a bat or bats.
• And that’s coming from the guy who routinely opines that there’s no such thing as a “surplus” in MLB

Skenes 4 MVP

• why isn’t skenes in the conversation for mvp?  he has a higher WAR than Ohtani.

Steve Adams

• In general, pitchers should get more love in MVP voting, I agree. (Zack Wheeler was the 2021 NL MVP, hard stop.)But while WAR isn’t a perfect stat, Skenes doesn’t even have more than Ohtani there. Shohei has 7+ fWAR just as a hitter, plus another 1-2 fWAR or RA9-WAR for pitching. If you go strictly by Baseball-Reference’s version, Skenes has a 0.1 lead on Ohtani, but that’s beyond negligible, and I think the uniqueness of Ohtani’s contributions makes him a pretty clear winner.
• But yeah, Skenes will eventually have a season where he should absolutely be the MVP, and it’ll probably get overlooked. I dislike the manner in which pitchers are just written off in MVP consideration unless they’re having some comically historic season.

MLBTR Fan

• Steve, I sense that you are probably a picky eater for some reason. Are you just a “plain cheese” kinda pizza guy??

Steve Adams

• I’ll eat almost anything, but hey, nothing wrong with a cheese pizza. Not my preference, but if you put it in front of me right now, sure. (Well .. if you put it in front of me an hour ago. I’ve already eaten lunch now. But I digress)

Binky

• Ohio World Series coming soon  – Reds vs Guardians.

Steve Adams

• This would rule. MLB would hate it, but sign me the hell up for a weird WS matchup that no one saw coming.

STL frustrated

• Arenado can still be valuable. Decent pickup if DeWitt is willing to eat 30-40% of the money, which is kind of doubtful since they have taken up the Pittsburgh Miami Tampa spending philosophy.

Steve Adams

• 30-40% of the contract isn’t getting anything. Even if you take away the $5MM the Rox are kicking in next season, he’s still owed $37MM over two years. Arenado isn’t getting two years and $22MM in free agency as a 35-year-old coming off an 80 wRC+. If the Cardinals pay him down to like $5MM per year, maybe someone takes him, but even then, the return is pretty much just going to be salary relief and a nominal warm body.

Topher

• Looking ahead, how is the looming potential (likely) work stoppage going to impact contracts handed out this offseason? More short-term deals likely?

Steve Adams

• I do expect a stoppage in the form of a lockout. I’m not at all convinced said stoppage will actually result in lost games. Manfred isn’t going to want that to be his lasting legacy, and neither the owners nor the players want to run into that scenario. The ’94 strike caused catastrophic long-term damage to the game’s well-being.So really, I don’t think you’re going to see too many players shy away from long-term deals. Those deals might be structured such that there’s a lower salary in ’27 as a potential hedge. Or maybe more contracts with huge signing bonuses, since those aren’t impacted by a lockout the way a player’s salary would be, but I’m not expecting a big rash of one-year deals while guys gear up to sign long-term post-2027.
• Even if there was a huge portion — even the entirety — of the 2027 season lost and you felt like you gamed the system by signing a one-year deal for 2026 … then you’re just a free agent who’s probably 31-32 years old hoping to score a long-term deal after owners can claim pandemic-style “biblical” revenue losses again. I wouldn’t really want to be on the market under those circumstances.

Optimistic Giants Fan

• Do you think the Giants are happy with what Bryce Eldridge has shown? Low average and high strikeouts looks bad at first, but he also has a 90% hard hit rate and has taken some walks.

Steve Adams

• This should be about what they expected, in my view. He’s 20 years old with minimal AAA experience and plenty of strikeout concerns at that level. I think it was fine to give him a look and hope for lightning in a bottle once they pushed back into faint playoff contention, but my expectations were minimal.He’s hitting the ball hard, has mashed at every minor league level, and will likely be just fine going forward. Nothing in his tiny sample of big league games feels like it should change their understandably very bullish outlook on him.

Rays Days

• Even though K Cash’s is contracted through 2030 do you believe a team might be interested in trying to pry him away from the Rays? Will Lowe and Diaz still be with the team next year?

Steve Adams

• I’m sure plenty of teams would love to have Cash managing for them, but it’s been like 10 years since a team effectively traded for a manager. I wouldn’t spend much time considering that possibility.I lean yes on Diaz and no on Lowe (traded), but it’s the Rays, so can’t rule out moving both of them.

Rangers

• Rangers off season outlook this year?⚾️

Steve Adams

• We’re starting up our Offseason Outlook series this week!

Andrew R

• Phillies take Arenado and JoJo Romero for Nick Castellanos! And yes, that means letting Bohm go.

Steve Adams

• I understand the fascination regarding an Arenado trade, but I don’t think that really helps either party. The Cardinals would want to trade Arenado to free up playing time for younger players. Bringing Castellanos back runs counter to that, as does trading a reasonably valuable asset (Romero) just to shed his salary.And for the Phillies, Arenado isn’t even a clear upgrade over Bohm. They could just release Castellanos, eat the $20MM, non-tender Bohm and sign/acquire a better third base stopgap to Aidan Miller.

Filthy

• Does Albies’ latest hamate injury alter the Braves’ calculations on his option?

Steve Adams

• It’s a net $3MM decision and there’s a $7MM option (no buyout) on 2027. I can’t see any way they decline it.

Jeff in Jersey

• By all accounts, the Mets seem to feel bad luck and poor execution, rather than bad process, led to this year’s terrible 2nd half. Your thoughts? Kinda feels like $58 million in Senga (minors), Manaea (hurt then bad) and Montas (hurt, bad, then hurt) is bad process.

Steve Adams

• In general, I didn’t love their offseason slate of pitching additions. Senga’s struggles do feel like some degree of bad luck. He was great prior to the hamstring issue and seemingly developed some bad habits while pitching through it/working back from it. I don’t think you can account for that exact scenario, but by the same token, he also missed most of last year with injury so there should have been (and was) some emphasis on building up the depth.The Montas signing was one of the weirdest deals of the offseason and maybe my most immediately negative reaction to any free agent deal of the winter. Holmes, Canning, Montas … I know today’s front offices are terrified of getting burned by an undesirable long-term deal, but I think so often that just leads to them overpaying on undesirable short-term deals and then needing to go back to the market.
• That’s not to disparage the Holmes deal really, which has worked out as well as could be hoped, but it’s just another instance of trying to kind of gin up a below-market value and getting kind of cute to do so. On its own, fine, but when it’s paired with a bunch of moderately priced upside plays, the quantity-over-quality approach just becomes more glaring. If you don’t want to spend on a Corbin Burnes, that’s totally fine, but for me the move at that point is tapping into the farm to make a play on the trade market rather than throwing a bunch of short-term commitments and hoping some stick.

AA

• Is Bichette a possibility for the Braves? A lot of money coming off the books this year.

Steve Adams

• The Braves haven’t given out more than $65MM to a free agent (Ozuna) under Alex Anthopoulos. I suppose they went after Aaron Nola, but in general, Bichette is just so far beyond what they’ve been willing to do.
• They wouldn’t commit long-term to Fried, Swanson, Freeman … but they’ll push $200MM for Bichette? I don’t see it.

Mike Elias

• Am I really going to trade Adley?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think it’s any kind of given, but I expect teams to inquire and the Orioles to at least give it consideration, particularly if it means getting some notable starting pitching coming back.

Cubs options

• Cubs have 3 pretty fascinating option choices after the year on Imanaga (the weird one), Rea ($4 million), and Kittredge ($9 mil I think?), where do you see them landing on each?

Steve Adams

• Imanaga will be picked up (all three years). I lean toward Kittredge being exercised and Rea being bought out.Kittredge’s option is $9MM but with a $1MM buyout, so it’s a net $8MM that I think they’ll deem reasonable enough.

  Rea’s option is $6MM with a $750K buyout. It’s a net $5.25MM decision. I think that’s more than justifiable based on how he’s pitched, but he’s a 35-year-old with below-average bat-missing ability and a relatively pedestrian fastball.

  I think Rea is certainly worth that cost, but that was also true last year when the Brewers put him on waivers at a similar price point and no one claimed him. His age and skill set isn’t something today’s front offices like to commit money to right out of the gate in the offseason.

Pirates

• Pirates trade Keller to the Angels for OHoppe, Adell and Neto.   Who says no?

Steve Adams

• Angels wouldn’t do Neto straight up for Keller, let alone that trio.

Mariners

• Thoughts on a Naylor and or Suarez resigning with us. Contract size and years?

Steve Adams

• Mariners haven’t given a free-agent hitter more than two years and $24MM (Mitch Garver) under Jerry Dipoto. Jerry said on our podcast — thanks for coming on, Jerry! — that they’re interested in re-signing Naylor, but I can’t help wondering if the length of the deal will just go beyond where they prefer to operate.Suarez’s contract is going to be kind of naturally capped by his age (35), so in a weird, roundabout way I can almost see him as a more realistic target since he’ll come with less long-term risk.

White Sox Fan

• Any value to a Robert for Bohm trade if/when Sox pick up Robert’s option? This helps needs for both teams

Steve Adams

• Bohm is only controlled through 2026. That trade doesn’t do the White Sox any good.

IM

• Will Mayo and/or Mountcastle be on the O’s in 2025 or does Basallo play first and M+M get traded for pitching?

Steve Adams

• Mountcastle isn’t going to bring much in the way of pitching. He’s a non-tender candidate.Mayo, I could see them trading, but his stock has plummeted this year, just as Kjerstad’s has over the past 18 months or so.

  (Trade your prospects!)

• I’ve got to call it for the week.Tim’s mailbag will run tomorrow, and Anthony will have a subscriber chat on Friday. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.

  If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and with me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) our Agency Database, our GM Tracker, our Offseason Outlook series (starting late this week) and more.

  Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!

Tim

• Did you think Morton and Paddock were big movies at the trade deadline?    Morton over 7 era for the tigers.  Paddock over 6.

Mark P

• I didn’t mind either at the time, and to be fair other moves (most notably Kyle Finnegan) have really worked out.

  At the time of the deadline, the Tigers clearly felt they just needed final touches rather than any major additions.  Hindsight is obviously 20-20 on that, but if they do end up collapsing entirely and missing the playoffs, you’ve got to believe the front office will finally get more aggressive with bigger moves this winter

Yesavage Fan

• Will Trey Yesavage get a spot in the bullpen or perhaps even the rotation for the playoffs. He is electric on the mound as I had the pleasure of knowing him since middle school and graduating with him.

Mark P

• It’s cool that you have such longtime ties to a big leaguer!  Well, maybe not “long time” since middle school wasn’t too long ago for Yesavage.  lol, man, do I ever feel old in seeing all these players debut who are so young.

  Toronto’s rotation is a total question mark after Gausman and Bieber.  Yesavage might end up getting a start almost by default, if Bassitt is hurt, Scherzer can’t get on track, and if the Jays stick to the plan of having Berrios as a reliever.  It’s a real roll of the dice asking a rookie to make a high-pressure playoff start so early into his career, yet it’s may not that different from having be, say, a multi-inning guy in a similar role

• Frankly, I think the likeliest scenario is Gausman, Bieber, then “pitching chaos” based on matchups and availability

M

• do we think the Astros or the tigers miss the playoffs?

Mark P

• Will the Astros or Tigers miss the playoffs?

  ---

  Both are in (24.8% | 126 votes)

  Astros make, Tigers miss (23.0% | 117 votes)

  Tigers make, Astros miss (52.1% | 265 votes)

  ---

  Total Votes: 508
• I opted to leave out the “both miss” answer since the Rangers’ collapse has erased that possibility

Fish Fan

• Are the Marlins for real? Only 4 games out with a week left in the season? Who saw that coming? Is Clayton the manager of the year?

Mark P

• I wonder how many people read this comment, thought “wait, what?” and then did a double take at the standings.  After losing seven of their first eight September games, Miami is now 10-1 in its last 11 games.

  The math is by no means in their favor to actually make the postseason, but the fact that we’re having this conversation is a testament to the Marlins’ underrated year.

Charleston Chew

• How far can the Mariners make provided they get in?

Mark P

• There’s basically no doubt at this point that Seattle is at least getting in, and they’re really putting an iron grip on the division title.  The Mariners should worry every single opponent they face in October, and are a legit threat to win it all.

Cleveland

• Manzardo looks unplayable as a 1B, which is saying something. Could Alonso be in the Guardians budget? A lot of money freed up.

Mark P

• Alonso won’t be even remotely in their price range.

Drake

• Do you think the A’s try to lock up any others of their offensive core? (Langeliers, Kurtz, Wilson, Soderstrom)

Mark P

• On paper yes, though it remains to be seen if last spring’s extension flurry was just to avoid MLBPA pressure and to hit their spending minimum.

  If last winter was an anomaly, it may take for the Vegas move to actually happen before we can start thinking about the A’s operating in a somewhat more normal fashion.  Not that they’ll start spending big or anything, but at least more common moves like locking players up to early extensions.

• In Kurtz’s case, I think he has already priced himself out of the Athletics’ comfort zone.

Angry Rangers Fan

• The rangers HAVE to sign either Tucker, Schwarber, or Bregman right? Get a proven hitter to help Seager and Langford in that lineup

Mark P

• Assuming that Texas indeed stayed under the tax line and reset their taxpayer status, I can see them making (or trying to make) one big splash.

Carl

• Charlie Morton……prolly at the end of his career. Awesome career tho!

Mark P

• Absolutely.  Despite the tough ending, Morton should be proud of his many achievements, if this is indeed the end of the road for him.

Ken

• Rank from most to least likely to resign with their current team: Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman, and Tucker

Mark P

• Schwarber, Bregman, Alonso, and then a big gap before Tucker.  I’d guess Schwarber staying in Philly is borderline probable given how the organization loves him, and Tucker is almost definitely leaving Chicago

Yankees

• Do the Yankees shop McMahon for a third baseman that can hit and field, instead of just a one dimensional gap filler?

Mark P

• It was surprising to see New York eat all of McMahon’s salary at the deadline, so if they were willing, I guess another might be too.  But, as good as McMahon’s glove is, the bat just isn’t there.

  Since the rest of the lineup is full of sluggers, the Yankees might be fine having one glove-first spot in the batting order….especially if Volpe’s defensive issues continue on the left side of the infield.  I don’t think the Yankees make that trade for McMahon if they were just going to flip him this winter.

Mookie B.

• How wrecked are we without Smitty?

Mark P

• It’s a big loss.  The Dodgers have withstood all manner of injuries before, but missing Smith makes that lineup considerably weaker.

Gaurdsball?!

• Are we riding a negative run dif into a division title?!

Mark P

• A minimal offense suddenly isn’t such a big problem when your pitchers are allowing roughly 1.5 runs per game.

Rafael Ramirez

• Do you think Kim picks up his option with the Braves?

Mark P

• I think just last week I felt he’d just exercise his player option and take the one-year payday, with the idea of having a full and healthy 2026 to re-establish himself.

  But, after Kim has continued to hit for several more days now, I think he might have built enough of a platform for Boras to market him for a multi-year deal this winter.  It’ll likely be one of those contract that has multiple opt-outs attached, yet taking such a deal allows Kim more flexibility and more money than simply taking the $16MM for 2026

• The other wrinkle here is that the Braves generally don’t do business with Boras clients.  It’s obviously not a hard rule since, you know, Kim is on the team right now.  But, it might add some interesting layers to any talks between Kim and the Braves about an extension.

Natitude Dude

• When will the Nats have a GM in place? Any leading favorite(s)?

Mark P

• This post runs down the known candidates linked to the vacancy already:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/nationals-have-interviewed-red-…
• Hard to say if there’s any kind of a favorite, but the Washington Post reported that Josh Byrnes has yet with the Lerner family.  It’s possible other candidates have at well, so it’s maybe too soon to dub Byrnes as a top choice

Guest

• Will the Astros pay Valdez?

Mark P

• My prediction is that he’s pitching elsewhere in 2026

SFGigantes

• Besides Sonny Gray(as previously mentioned) could SFG get Sandy Alcantara from Marlins in the offseason and not have to give up Josiah Gonzales? I wanted us to go get him at the deadline, even tho we had fallen apart.

Mark P

• The Marlins being so competitive makes me wonder about Alcantara’s availability.  Chances are that the Fish will still be open to moving that salary and garnering a big return if one can be found, yet if the Marlins think they can properly contend in 2026, perhaps they think about adding instead of subtracting.

Marky Mark

• Whats on the Sunday Night Chat Playlist?   

Mark P

• “The Crystal Ballroom,” an incredible U2 b-side track

Cal Raleigh

• Do you think I can break Judge’s home run record?

Mark P

• Went yard for the 58th time tonight.  Five homers in six-plus games is a tall order, especially since I can see the M’s resting Raleigh for a game or two to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

Joseph

• What would it take for the Orioles to land MacKenzie Gore this offseason? He would seem like a great fit next to Rogers and Bradish.

Mark P

• It may depend to some extent on who the Nats’ next PBO/GM is, but I’d expect Washington to still keep a very high ask on Gore’s services.  Even though he faded in the second half and got hurt, a controllable (for two more years) pitcher who has shown frontline stuff merits a big price tag.

  I’d also think it unlikely that the Orioles in particular could get much traction in talks with the Nats, if there’s any bad blood lingering from The Neverending MASN Dispute

Derek

• If the White Sox pick up Robert’s option, would a trade for Bohm work since it fills a need for both teams?

Mark P

• Just as salary offset, since Bohm doesn’t have much value to a rebuilding team like the ChiSox.

Acuna

• Any chance Braves trade me,would look good in right field  for the Cubs?

Mark P

• There’s zero chance Acuna is traded.  Why would the Braves do that?

carpathian florist

• Bigger disappointment- Mets missing the postseason or tigers missing the postseason?

Mark P

• Certainly the Mets, based on payroll and higher expectations going into the season.

Pirates

• Do we take a big swing trade wise in the offseason? Maybe trade for Taylor Ward by giving some of our insane pitching depth?

Mark P

• Ward is set for free agency following the 2026 season, so I’m not sure if the Bucs want to give up one of their prized young arms for just one year of his services.

Cookie Monster

• What is it going to take for the Cubs to fire everyone?  Non

Mark P

• They’ve made the playoffs and will finish with the third or fourth best record in the National League.  Hoyer just signed an extension two months ago.  Counsell is under contract through 2028.

Bucs Fan

• Thoughts on Cherington’s comments? Any free agents/trades Pirates could go/make after this offseason?

Mark P

• If not necessarily Taylor Ward, getting 2-3 experienced and proven bats would be a huge help.  Since we can’t assume the Pirates will spend to sign anyone notable, that puts the onus on Cherington to trade a controllable young pitcher for a controllable young hitter, and hope to score much bigger than the Priester-for-Yorke swap.

pizzashill

• Can you name a catcher season you would take over 2025 cal Raleigh?

Mark P

• Probably some Josh Gibson years, but that might literally be it in all of baseball history.  Just an incredible year for Raleigh.

Bostonpaul

• Who do you see thr Red Sox extending qualified offer to after the season?

Mark P

• Giolito probably, and the others are all either ineligible (Bregman, Story if he opts out) or non-candidates

2027 Season

• Is it all but certain that we will have both a salary cap and floor for the 2027 season?  It seems to be the middle ground between yes floor and yes cap, and the fans seem to be in favor.

Mark P

• The fans don’t have a say in CBA talks.  The players have long been steadfast in refusing any sort of cap, and I don’t see them bending now.

Twins

• Will Minnesota spend money this off-season

Mark P

• Nope

Moneyball

• Thoughts on a Severino for Cronenworth trade? Pads probably need pitching, even just depth, unload cronenworths contract. A’s could use a vetern left handed infielder with uncertainty around Gelof, Hernaiz, etc.

Mark P

• Cronenworth is owed $60MM from 2026-30, and he has a partial eight-team no-trade clause.  Chances are that the A’s are on that list just because most guys don’t want to play in a minor league park.

  Severino only has $42MM remaining on his deal (over the 2026-27 seasons), so the money doesn’t entirely match up either.

Some guy

• Realistic expectations for my White Sox next year?

Mark P

• Getting under the 100-loss mark.  Chicago has 98 losses with six games remaining, so they’ll almost surely hit triple digits again.

  It shouldn’t be overlooked that this is still a big improvement over their rock-bottom showing in 2024, by almost a 20-game margin.  Obviously 2024 was an outlier and 2025 has been more of a “normal” type of bad season, but there are some signs of progress.

Vito Acconci

• Best Radiohead album? the Bends, OK Computer, Kid A, Amnesiac, or A Moon Shaped Pool?

Mark P

• Don’t forget “In Rainbows,” which might be my pick

BB fan

• What is going on with Minnesota with their penny pinching?

Mark P

• Ownership has heavy debts, and wasn’t able to find anyone to both buy the team and take on all/most of that debt.  Between that and the loss of TV revenue, the impact is being felt on the baseball payroll.

Jeff

• If Scherzer can’t get right, do the Jays leave him off the playoff roster entirely?  Hard to see a spot for him in a 12 man pen with Lauer and Berrios down there.

Mark P

• It’s hard to see Scherzer being omitted entirely, given his long history.  Plus, like I mentioned earlier, there’s enough uncertainty about the 3rd/4th starter roles that Scherzer might well still end up with a rotation job

Ron Washington

• Should I return next season?

Mark P

• He wants to, and I can see the Angels bringing him back as something of a do-over since health issues sidelined him for so much of this year

Alpa Chino

• Who ya got for NL ROY?

Mark P

• Off the top of my head, Cade Horton, but I’d have to double-check all the numbers

JeffyM

• If Santander and Bo are both back for the playoffs who do you think gets left off?  Loperfido, France and IKF?

Mark P

• France is likely off.  I’d like to keep both IKF and Loperfido if possible, and for a Jays team that’s had trouble scoring runs lately, you’d think Loperfido (who’s still got an OPS in the high 800s) would get more at-bats.

Hunt for Reds October

• No matter how it turns out (hopefully for the better), isn’t it still obvious the Reds HAVE to improve the offense in the off-season?  How often do we have to face this before they actually do anything?

Mark P

• Agreed.  With the pitching becoming such a strength, adding some real bats could make Cincinnati into a big threat quickly (if they aren’t already).

Mets choke fest

• Who’s to blame for the Mets collapse?

Mark P

• The pitching has just evaporated.  To that extent it’s on the rotation themselves, yet David Stearns’ unusual (but usually successful) method of building a pitching staff really backfired on the Mets this year.

Dodger Dave

• Mark, if the Dodgers put Teo on the market this Winter, what kind of interest/return do you think they can get for him?

Mark P

• There’s $33MM owed to Hernandez through 2027, counting the buyout of his 2028 club option.  There’s also a ton of deferred money involved in his contract as a whole, but let’s go with $33MM as a baseline.

  Hernandez currently has an exactly average 100 wRC+, with a big decrease in power from 2024 and his already-low walk rate has hit a new career low.  His trade value isn’t nil, but a lot of teams are going to see this season as a pretty good reason to stay away

Guest

• Naylor to the Reds? Or is he staying where he is?

Mark P

• Naylor would be a very nice boost to the Cincinnati offense, but I’m not sure if the Reds are willing to meet his asking price.

Marsey

• Bees?

Mark P

• Beads?!

Gapsmith

• Realistically, how far can the Phillies go without Zach Wheeler?

Mark P

• Common sense would seem to dictate that the Phils can’t win without their ace.  The rest of the rotation is still good, however, and the offense might just be able to outslug other teams, so I can’t rule Philly out.
• We’re about two hours in here, so let’s call it a wrap.  Thanks for all your questions and comments, and let’s rev up for what might be a wild final week of the regular season!
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