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Poll: Francisco Liriano’s Trade Value

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Twins lefty Franciso Liriano is an intriguing potential trade candidate. It feels like he's been around forever, but he's just 27 and under team control through 2012, so he's still well within his prime years and relatively cheap for another season and a half.

Liriano's raw stuff is nasty, but the road back from Tommy John surgery in 2006 has been marked by notable highs and lows. He appeared to be fully recovered in 2010, posting a 3.62 ERA (2.62 FIP), 9.44 K/9, 2.72 BB/9 and 53.6% GB percentage. He's regressed in 2011, however, with his control (4.65 BB/9) being especially problematic.

Between Liriano's bouncing between dominance and mediocrity, and the Twins' uphill climb in the AL Central (eight games behind the Indians through today), it's quite possible that the lefty could be made available on the trade market this month. This came up in last week's MLBTR Chat with Tim Dierkes, who suggested that the Twins would probably recoup a top-50 prospect in exchange for Liriano, considering his age and contract status. (For reference, here are Keith Law's, Baseball America's and Baseball Prospectus' respective top-100 prospects for 2011).

The reasons to justify such a payment for Liriano are self-evident: His potential is huge, and he's been dominant for stretches in his career. But is it a no-brainer? Prospects are valued as highly now as they've ever been, and Liriano's inconsistencies are scary, as is his reliance on what may be an arm-taxing slider, as Eno Sarris of Fangraphs recently illustrated.

If you were a suitor, what would you do?

Poll: Are The Twins A Legitimate Playoff Threat?

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By the time the Twins emerged from May with a 17-36 record, most people had written them off. They were a flawed team with serious injuries, hopelessly far behind the Indians and Tigers in the American League Central.

But since the beginning of June, no team has been playing better than the Twins, who have won 14 of their last 18 games. All of a sudden, they’re 7.5 games out of first place and it seems possible that they’ll be buyers at the trade deadline, rather than sellers.

The Twins still have their issues – Justin Morneau, Jim Thome, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Kevin Slowey and Joe Nathan are on the DL and Delmon Young hasn't hit - but their strengths have started to carry them. It now seems possible that the Twins could be contenders again. What do you think?

Poll: Milton Bradley’s Future

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Milton Bradley’s tenure with the Mariners came to an unceremonious end last week when he was designated for assignment. “We felt Milton was not part of our future and not part of our present,” said GM Jack Zduriencik. “Therefore, the move was made.”

Bradley, 33, was hitting just .218/.313/.356 at the time of move, which actually raised his overall batting line with the Mariners to .209/.298/.351 in 393 plate appearances. He was in the final year of the three-year, $30MM contract he signed with the Cubs, and Seattle is still on the hook for his $12MM salary this season.

At least five executives doubt that Bradley will get another chance in the big leagues, citing his declining performance and behavioral issues. The Padres are unlikely to bring him back despite what might be the league’s worst offense. Teams have shown that they’re willing to put up with distractions as long as the player produces, which can’t be said about Bradley right now.

Poll: The Dodgers Under MLB

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Earlier today we learned that Major League Baseball has taken over financial operations of the Dodgers’ and will oversee all day-to-day operations. Owner Frank McCourt intends to fight for control of the team, but that may be an unwinnable war. While this is certainly a drastic step on MLB’s part, it’s hardly unprecedented.

MLB oversaw the Rangers’ finances last season, at least before the Chuck Greenburg-Nolan Ryan ownership group took over. Although the team wasn’t exactly given a blank check, they did have the financial flexibility to go out and add players like Jorge Cantu, Cristian Guzman, and Cliff Lee at the trade deadline. The Expos were under MLB’s control a few years before that, but they were under tighter payroll restrictions.

Whether or not the Dodgers have the relative freedom of the 2010 Rangers or the limitations of the 2002-2005 Expos remains to be seen. McCourt’s team has scored the second fewest runs in baseball, so they could clearly stand to add a bat or two at midseason. The question is, will they be able to?

Poll: Circumventing The Luxury Tax

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Rumors of a long-term contract extension between the Red Sox and Adrian Gonzalez were made a reality yesterday, when the first baseman agreed to a seven-year, $154MM deal. While Gonzalez’s surgically repaired shoulder was a legitimate concern, there’s some belief that Boston waiting until after Opening Day to announce the deal to avoid a competitive balance (a.k.a. luxury) tax penalty. The same was true of Josh Beckett’s extension last year.

The Red Sox aren’t breaking the rules here, in fact they deserve credit for finding a creative way to save money. But as Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports mentioned yesterday, “the spirit of the [luxury tax] isn’t being honored here.” He wonders if the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement will push the deadline back to avoid such shenanigans. Between the Gonzalez and Clay Buchholz extension, the Sox have saved upwards of $10MM against the tax this year by announcing the deals after the season started.

Of course the luxury tax only impacts a handful of teams, so altering a rule that effects only a small number of clubs may be unfair. As Cork Gaines showed at Business Insider recently, the Yankees have been paying the tax every year since it’s been in place, with the Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers all contributing at some point as well. The luxury tax is based on the annual average value of the contract, and the 25% of the money goes to the “industry growth fund” while the remaining 75% is used to fund player benefits.

Poll: Manny Ramirez & The Hall Of Fame

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It was quite a shock when Major League Baseball abruptly announced the retirement of Manny Ramirez yesterday, and by now you know the circumstances of his decision. Manny tested positive for a banned substance and instead of going through the appeal and suspension processes, he called it quits. It was his second positive test, so he would have faced a 100-game suspension.

Ramirez’s career started in 1993, though he wasn’t a full-time player until 1995. He’s a .312/.411/.585 career hitter with 555 homers and 1,831 RBI. His six-year peak from 1999-2004 (ages 27-32) featured a .327/.428/.633 batting line and a 168 OPS+. Although he never won an MVP, Manny has four top-four finishes in the voting and nine top-ten finishes. He was a 12-time All-Star, a two-time Hank Aaron Award winner (given to the top hitter in the league as voted on by the fans), and the MVP of the 2004 World Series. 

As a player, Ramiez’s Hall of Fame credentials are undeniable. He was no worse than one of the five best hitters of his generation, having enough of an impact with the bat to negate his poor defense. But he’s also the only big leaguer to ever test positive for banned substances on two occasions, putting some of his accomplishments in question. We have to look no further than Mark McGwire to see how the Hall of Fame voters feel about banned substances, but what about you?

Poll: Will Blue Jays Trade Aaron Hill?

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Yesterday, the Blue Jays declined to exercise their options for Aaron Hill's 2012-2014 seasons.  While they will still be able to pick up the 29-year-old's options for '12 and '13, the decision could reflect the club's uncertainty regarding Hill's long-term future in Toronto.  After churning out a .286/.330/.499 slash line with 36 homers in 2009, Hill saw his OPS drop more than 150 points and his HR total dip to 26 in 2010.

Even if the Blue Jays aren't high on Hill at the moment, one has to think that the second baseman could attract plenty of interest if he shows flashes of his old form in 2011.  After this season, Hill can be retained for $8MM in 2012 or, for $16MM, kept through 2013.  While that's not exactly chump change, it's not an exorbitant price to pay if Hill can bring a 5.4 WAR to the table like he did in '09.

Do you envision GM Alex Anthopoulos flipping Hill to another club before this season is through?

Poll: Is Carlos Silva Tradeable?

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Earlier today, the Cubs notified Carlos Silva that they will look to trade him after anointing Andrew Cashner as the fifth starter.  The club also asked the right-hander to consider a stint in the minors if GM Jim Hendry is unable to move him.  Silva was less-than-thrilled with that decision, telling the press that there is "no chance" that he would report to the team's Iowa affiliate.  The soon-to-be 32-year-old also had some harsh words for pitching coach Mark Riggins.

Silva has struggled this spring (for what it's worth) and is owed $11.5MM in 2011.  Count SI's Jon Heyman (Twitter links) among those who think that the Cubs won't be able to unload Silva for anything of value.  In fact, Heyman jokes that if Hendry can get a decent prospect and save 10% of the money owed to Silva in a deal, he should be given a five-year contract extension.

Even though Silva ultimately fizzled out in 2010, the hurler showed glimpses of his former self in the first half of the season.  Neither the clubs nor his next club will have to pick up the entirety of his $11.5MM deal as the M's are on the hook for $5.5MM of that.

Are the Cubs completely handcuffed here or will they be able to find a worthwhile deal for the veteran?

Poll: Neftali Feliz’s 2011 Role

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The extended experiment may be coming to an end. The Rangers seem likely to return Neftali Feliz to the bullpen for the 2011 season and end his spring stint as a starter.

The 22-year-old was last year's AL Rookie of the Year as the Rangers closer, when he saved 40 games and posted a 2.73 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 69 1/3 innings. Given those results, the Rangers' lack of shutdown relievers besides Feliz and their manager's desire for a proven closer, it's easy to see why the Rangers would return Feliz to the 'pen for at least one more year.

On the other hand, elite starters are harder to come by than elite relievers and they're on the mound for three times as many innings as most closers. Feliz's secondary offerings may not be finely tuned, but it stands to reason that they won't get any sharper if he's only pitching one inning at a time. You can make the argument that the Rangers should use Feliz as a starter and make do with their current bullpen or trade for an extra reliever.

What role would you assign Feliz for 2011 if you were in GM Jon Daniels' position?

Poll: Which Non-Tender Will Provide Biggest Benefit?

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Every year players are non-tendered for many reasons; perhaps they’re injured, have grown too expensive, or just simply aren’t performing well. Whatever the case, these players add sometimes unexpected options to the free agent market and often yield bargain results.

Kelly Johnson has to be figured as the prize of last offseason’s non-tender crop. The Braves decided to cut the then 27-year-old loose, and he rewarded the Diamondbacks with a .284/.370/.486 line. Johnson belted 26 home runs, swiped 13 bags, played nearly 1300 innings of strong defense, and totaled 6 WAR according to Fangraphs — all for $2.35MM.

Let’s not forget Mike Rizzo’s dealings either. The Nats’ GM signed Matt Capps for just $3.5MM and flipped him to the Twins at the deadline to receive Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa. Ramos was ranked as the Twins’ #4 prospect and the game’s #58 prospect entering the 2010 season. Not a bad ROI for a low-risk move on Rizzo’s part.

According to MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker, 52 players were non-tendered this year. Some of the more interesting cases include Bobby Jenks (now in Boston), Russell Martin (now a Yankee), Joel Peralta (now a Ray), Jack Cust (now a Mariner), Dustin Moseley (now a Padre), and George Sherrill (now a Brave). All six of these players saw either strong 2010 seasons or have experienced success at the Major League level. Looking at this season and beyond, let’s pose the question:

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