Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top 50 Free Agent To Sign?
On New Year’s Eve, seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents watched the ball drop without knowing where they would be playing in 2013. Since then, Adam LaRoche (No. 15, Nationals), Rafael Soriano (No. 17, Nationals), and Shaun Marcum (No. 19, Mets) have all signed, leaving four still out there on the open market.
Michael Bourn (No. 3) is the top remaining free agent and his situation isn’t a whole lot clearer than it was a month ago. The center fielder is tied to draft pick compensation and teams aren’t wild about giving up their first round choice for the right to give Bourn a lucrative deal. The Mets could appeal to MLB to argue that they shouldn’t have to sacrifice their No. 11 pick, but one has to wonder if the cost-conscious club is ready to spend that much anyway. The Mariners have also been linked to the outfielder but we haven’t seen a ton of movement on that front lately.
Kyle Lohse (No. 10) has also seen his stock fall thanks to the issue of draft pick compensation. No one seems willing to go beyond two years for Lohse, despite his exceptionally strong work across the last two seasons. The O’s will be in if the veteran’s price drops significantly and the Brewers won’t rule it out, but the Angels aren’t expected to chase him and the Cardinals continue to say that a reunion is very unlikely.
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun heard earlier this week that Joe Saunders (No. 25) was offered a two-year, $15MM deal from a club, though those sources aren’t directly in on the talks. If the offer is legitimate, however, it isn’t from the Orioles, who are only interested in a one-year deal with an option for year two. The Twins are also keen on a one-year pact and the Mariners are also known to be interested.
Jose Valverde (No. 44) likely saw his market pick up after fellow Scott Boras client Soriano signed with the Nationals. Early on, the Tigers decided that they wouldn’t have him back and things were quiet for the 34-year-old for quite some time. This week, however, we learned that the Mets are pursuing Valverde.
Who Will Be The Next Top 50 FA To Sign?
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Joe Saunders 41% (6,598)
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Jose Valverde 22% (3,560)
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Michael Bourn 21% (3,384)
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Kyle Lohse 17% (2,727)
Total votes: 16,269
Poll: Should The Padres Extend Chase Headley?
Chase Headley emerged as an MVP candidate in 2012, hitting a career-best 31 home runs and establishing career highs in on-base percentage (.376) and slugging percentage (.498). The 28-year-old will obtain a salary of at least $7.075MM in 2013 as an arbitration eligible player, and there's a chance he could obtain even more security in the form of a long-term extension.
The Padres have had some extension talks with Headley, though it doesn’t seem as though there’s currently much momentum toward a long-term contract between the Padres and the Excel Sports Management client. It’s a possibility worth considering, though. Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported in October that the ownership group led by Ron Fowler and the Seidler/O’Malley families seemed to want to sign Headley long term.
Extending Headley through his remaining arbitration years (2013-14) and some free agent seasons (2015 and beyond) no doubt has some appeal to a Padres team that has had trouble scoring runs in recent years. However, Headley is getting expensive — he could require a commitment of $50MM-plus — and Jedd Gyorko looms as an affordable internal alternative. Plus, the Padres can't be completely sure Headley will replicate his 2012 numbers. Should they pursue an extension for Headley?
Should the Padres extend Chase Headley?
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Yes, it would be worth it for the team. 70% (6,671)
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No, they should spend on other areas. 30% (2,817)
Total votes: 9,488
Poll: Michael Bourn’s Next Contract
Michael Bourn entered the offseason as one of the most sought-after free agents in baseball, considered by all authorities (including MLBTR's Tim Dierkes) to be one of the top players available this winter. February is just a few days away, however, and not only is Bourn still unsigned, but he's lacking in obvious suitors that have both the need and the available finances to make a deal.
Bourn's and agent Scott Boras' demands for a contract in the neighbourhood of five years/$75MM haven't helped open up the market, nor has the fact that signing Bourn would cost a team a high draft pick due to Bourn's rejection of the Braves' qualifying offer. While the Mets may appeal to MLB in an attempt to sign Bourn and still keep their 11th overall draft choice, it seems unlikely that the league will acquiesce.
Besides the compensatory details, it may be that teams are simply unwilling to commit that much money to a 30-year-old player whose value lies in his speed (257 steals over the last five years) and defense (a +22.5 UZR/150 in center field in 2012), no matter how much Bourn may excel in those categories. The Mariners, for example, have been linked to Bourn this winter but it is believed that Seattle isn't keen to sign another speed-and-defense oriented free agent given how the Chone Figgins signing backfired on the club. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith listed a number of possible suitors for Bourn last month, a list from which we can probably remove at least the Phillies, Indians, Yankees, Braves and Dodgers in the wake of subsequent moves.
You would think that Bourn's demands would drop given such a seemingly limited market…but this is Scott Boras we're talking about, an agent who has made a career out of getting his clients big deals when none seem available. That said, Boras could also explore a shorter-term or so-called "pillow contract" for Bourn so the outfielder can re-visit the free market next winter. Will Bourn take a short-term deal, lower his asking price, or will Boras pull another rabbit out of his hat?
What Will Michael Bourn's Next Contract Look Like?
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One year, $12-$15MM 44% (8,513)
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Multiyear deal (w/opt-out clause after first year), AAV $12-$15MM 34% (6,510)
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Five years, but with a lower average annual value ($40-$50MM) 15% (2,921)
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Five years, $70-75MM 6% (1,210)
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More than five years/$70-$75MM 1% (210)
Total votes: 19,364
Poll: Will The Phillies Add An Outfielder?
The Phillies already added one outfielder this winter, acquiring Ben Revere from the Twins. They’ve also considered the possibility of adding a corner outfielder, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported this week that they continue seeking a right-handed bat. The Phillies appear to have some interest in free agent Scott Hairston and trade candidates Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells. However, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. publicly suggested the Phillies are done making moves, saying "we're likely going with what we've got."
If the season opened today, the Phillies' outfield would consist of Revere and a number of corner outfielders. Right-handed hitters such as John Mayberry Jr. and Darin Ruf would join left-handed hitters such as Domonic Brown and Laynce Nix in the outfield mix. This group includes some intriguing names, but lacks the certainty. Will the Phillies stick with what they have, or acquire a newcomer?
Will The Phillies Add An Outfielder?
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No. 42% (4,929)
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Yes, they'll make a trade. 40% (4,591)
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Yes, they'll sign a free agent. 18% (2,084)
Total votes: 11,604
Poll: The Diamondbacks’ Outfield Depth
The Diamondbacks have already traded an outfielder once this offseason, sending Chris Young to Oakland. Now that they've signed Cody Ross, they're positioned to deal another outfielder. Ross joins perpetual trade candidate Justin Upton and Jason Kubel in the team's starting outfield. Gerardo Parra projects as a bench player and prospects Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollock provide additional depth for general manager Kevin Towers.
Based on the most recent rumors surrounding the team, Upton and Kubel are potential trade candidates. However, there doesn’t appear to be a consensus on which player Towers will trade. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported this morning that the industry seems divided on the topic of which player the Diamondbacks would prefer to move (Twitter link). Teams seeking a high-ceiling player who's years away from free agency will prefer Upton, while teams seeking an affordable short-term fix could pursue Kubel. Which player will the Diamondbacks trade?
How will the Diamondbacks address their outfield depth?
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By trading Jason Kubel 41% (5,436)
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By trading Justin Upton 39% (5,215)
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They'll keep their outfield depth 12% (1,604)
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By trading Gerardo Parra 8% (1,054)
Total votes: 13,309
Poll: Who Will Be The Last Top 50 Free Agent To Sign?
Most of MLBTR's Top 50 free agents of the offseason are off the board, but there are still seven holdouts as we enter 2013. For some, the market is fairly clear cut. For others, it's suss out a list of suitors and potential fits.
Adam LaRoche (No. 15) has the attention of both the Nationals and the Red Sox, but neither team wants to give him a three-year deal and Boston isn't wild about giving up a second-round pick for him. The BoSox are also expected to back out of talks with the first baseman if they complete their agreement with Mike Napoli. Right-hander Shaun Marcum (No. 19) has received interest from the Mets, Twins, Padres, and Cubs. The Mets, Twins, and Padres are also in on left-hander Joe Saunders (No. 25) along with the Orioles and Mariners.
If the other four have made significant progress on a deal, it's been kept on the QT to this point. Michael Bourn (No. 3) is the best player remaining on the open market but it's not clear who the interested parties are. The Rangers lost out on the biggest names of the winter and the Mariners haven't made the kind of splash that some expected them to, but their level of interest is unknown. Texas isn't in on Kyle Lohse (No. 10) and the Cardinals don't have enough breathing room to bring him back. Rafael Soriano (No. 17), like many free agents, has been linked to the Dodgers, but they're not interested. Jose Valverde (No. 44) wants to return to the Tigers but they reportedly won't be bringing him back (For the purposes of this poll, please choose one of the other six if you expect Valverde to call it a career).
Who Will Be The Last Top 50 FA To Sign?
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Jose Valverde 31% (7,007)
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Rafael Soriano 29% (6,676)
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Michael Bourn 17% (3,759)
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Kyle Lohse 9% (2,069)
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Adam LaRoche 6% (1,268)
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Shaun Marcum 5% (1,057)
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Joe Saunders 4% (894)
Total votes: 22,730
Poll: Will LaRoche Get A Three Year Deal?
Adam LaRoche wants to return to Washington and the Nationals want to bring the first baseman back. So what's LaRoche still doing on the open market? Well, the 33-year-old is looking for a three-year deal and the Nats say that they won't go beyond two years. They reportedly haven't felt pressured to consider a deal to keep LaRoche in D.C. through 2015, because they don't see another team offering him the same. It looked like General Manager Mike Rizzo & Co. were dead on about that, until recently, when the Red Sox's situation with Mike Napoli became cloudy.
Amidst concerns over Napoli's hip, the two sides have still yet to finalize their three-year, $39MM deal. Whether it's a play for leverage or legitimate concern over the catcher's health, Boston has begun talking to LaRoche as a plan B. Even though we're closing in on the New Year and LaRoche's market likely isn't what he expected, he's still not willing to budge on his demand for a three-year pact.
How do you see it playing out? Do you see the Nationals, Red Sox, or any other team giving LaRoche a three-year contract?
Will LaRoche Get A Three Year Deal?
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No 56% (10,392)
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Yes 44% (8,258)
Total votes: 18,650
Poll: The Red Sox & Mike Napoli
It has been 24 days since the Red Sox and Mike Napoli agreed to a three-year contract worth $39MM. The two sides have been unable to finalize the deal due to a hip issue that popped up during the physical, and the team is reportedly trying to put some protective language into the pact. They’ve used similar clauses in contracts for J.D. Drew and John Lackey.
Earlier today we learned the Red Sox have been talking to Adam LaRoche, a free agent first baseman who would be a viable alternative to Napoli. A few hours later we heard that Napoli’s representatives have had talks with at least one other team. Both reports could just be one side trying to gain leverage over the other, or they could be an indication the agreement is falling apart and they’ve both begun to look for alternatives.
With the calendar just about ready to flip over to 2013, unsigned free agents will soon begin to scramble to find jobs for next season. Teams will also start to scramble for solutions to their remaining roster holes since Spring Training will be just six weeks away. Neither Napoli nor the Red Sox want this thing to drag out any longer, so a resolution should come relatively soon one way or the other.
Will the Red Sox & Napoli complete their agreement?
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No, he'll end up elsewhere 57% (14,643)
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Yes 43% (10,842)
Total votes: 25,485
Poll: Which Top 50 Free Agent Will Sign Next?
As we approach the New Year, seven of Tim Dierkes' Top 50 free agents remain unsigned. Michael Bourn (#3), Kyle Lohse (#10), Adam LaRoche (#15), Rafael Soriano (#17), Shaun Marcum (#19), Joe Saunders (#25), and Jose Valverde (#44) are still on the market and most seem to be drawing a great deal of interest. It's possible that Mike Napoli (#14) re-enters the fray if his deal with the Red Sox falls through, though one has to imagine that Boston would have bailed entirely at this point if they were overly concerned about his health.
Bourn, Lohse, Soriano, and Valverde are all represented by Scott Boras, who is comfortable with waiting for the right deal. We also know that he has a knack for digging up unexpected suitors, so maybe we shouldn't shy away from picking Lohse in this poll despite his cloudy market. Of the seven top 50 free agents left, who is going to put pen to paper first?
Which Top 50 FA Will Sign Next?
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Adam LaRoche 41% (9,176)
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Michael Bourn 19% (4,357)
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Joe Saunders 14% (3,166)
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Kyle Lohse 14% (3,047)
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Shaun Marcum 7% (1,687)
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Rafael Soriano 4% (793)
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Jose Valverde 1% (282)
Total votes: 22,508
Poll: The Rays-Royals Trade
The Rays and Royals made a major trade last night, and in the 12 hours or so since the teams announced the deal, many executives, writers and analysts have responded with their reactions. Now it’s your turn to weigh in on the deal.
Should the Royals get credit for strengthening their pitching staff with James Shields and Wade Davis? Or did they overpay for pitching depth and make a deal they’ll ultimately regret? And does the acquisition of Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard justify the Rays’ decision to deal Shields and Davis? Or did the Rays make a mistake in choosing prospects over established players? It's time to hear what you think of the trade…
Which team won the Rays-Royals trade?
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Rays 47% (17,415)
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Both teams win the deal 33% (12,123)
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Royals 18% (6,613)
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Both teams lose the deal 2% (896)
Total votes: 37,047