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Your Poll Performance

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It's always interesting to see what MLBTR readers think in our polls, especially with thousands of votes coming in.  Looking through four February 2011 polls, how have you done?

How Many $100 Million Contracts?

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By my count, seventeen $100MM+ contracts have been signed in free agency, making an exception to include the $103MM commitment required by the Red Sox for Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Here's the breakdown for recent offseasons:

For the 2011-12 offseason, will we see a return to the crazy money of 2006-07?  We've got a trio of $100MM locks with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Sabathia.  As with the better $100MM contracts in baseball history, these three are current superstars.  However, three additional players could tip the scales and give us as many as six $100MM deals this winter: Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Yu Darvish.

Reyes and Wilson may fall short – I could certainly see them in the $90MM range.  With Darvish it's more a question of whether he's posted, because five years later I do think he'd match or exceed the Dice-K expenditure. 

It's your turn: out of Pujols, Fielder, Sabathia, Reyes, Wilson, and Darvish, how many $100MM+ expenditures do you expect for the 2011-12 offseason?

Poll: Pirates Extension Of Neal Huntington

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This morning, the Pirates announced that they extended GM Neal Huntington's contract through 2014 with a club option for 2015.  In his four years on the job, the Bucs' farm system has gotten an infusion of talent and the club has shown that they are willing to spend on the draft.  Most recently, the Pirates gave sizeable deals right-hander Gerrit Cole and outfielder Josh Bell.  Pittsburgh also saw success on the major league level as they briefly sat atop the NL Central in late July before a slide in August.

While it appears that the club is headed in the right direction, the Pirates' record in three full seasons under Huntington's watch has been 186-299.  Unless they practically run the table to close out the season, this year will mark the team's 19th consecutive losing campaign. 

All things considered, do you agree with the Pirates three-year extension of Huntington's contract?

Poll: Baseball’s Most Disappointing Team

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The Reds, Rockies, White Sox, Twins and Athletics were all expected to contend for the postseason this year, but those teams are all at least nine games out of a playoff berth at this point. It’s safe to say they’re among baseball’s most disappointing teams, but they’re not the only clubs that have fallen short of expectations. 

The Marlins expected more from Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez, who are both on the 60-day DL. The Astros are heading for the first 100-loss season in the history of their franchise and the Cubs and Dodgers aren’t contending despite having two of the game's biggest payrolls.

To one extent or another, each one of those teams has disappointed. Which one has been the biggest disappointment of all?

Will C.J. Wilson Get $100 Million?

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Two years ago, Rangers lefty C.J. Wilson struck me as a quality reliever, but certainly not someone who could eventually score a $100MM contract.  Now, with free agency just months away, I'm wondering if that could be his ceiling on the open market.

Wilson

Wilson switched back to starting in 2010, and he exceeded expectations.  Though Wilson led the American League in walks, he also made 33 starts with a 3.35 ERA in the regular season.  Sure, his SIERA was 4.19, but the conversion was a success.  Had Wilson signed an extension after the 2010 season, giving up three free agent years for around $10-11MM apiece seemed appropriate.  The decision to wait paid off for Wilson, as he's taken his game to a new level in 2011.  The walks are down significantly, the strikeout rate is up, and he made the All-Star team.  Without Cliff Lee around, Wilson is the Rangers' undisputed ace.

Wilson's innings total predictably skyrocketed in 2010, but it didn't lead to any injuries.  Including the postseason, he made 37 starts that year for a total of 228 1/3 innings.  He averaged almost 17 pitches per inning in 2010 and about 6.2 innings per start.  This year he's been more efficient at 16.2 pitches per inning, and he's exceeding 6.6 innings per start.

Why do I think $100MM is possible?  Age is not a concern, as he turns 31 in November.  He's become a horse, but his overall mileage is low because of the time spent as a reliever.  He's succeeded in a tough home park and in the American League.  The advanced numbers are strong and he provides the fairly rare combination of strikeouts and groundballs.  Here's a look at the recent big pitching contracts signed on the open market:

  • Cliff Lee: five years, $120MM ($24MM per year).  32 years old at time of signing.
  • John Lackey: five years, $82.5MM ($16.5MM per year).  31 years old.
  • C.C. Sabathia: seven years, $161MM, plus opt-out clause ($23MM per year).  28 years old.
  • A.J. Burnett: five years, $82.5MM ($16.5MM per year).  32 years old shortly after signing.

It's easy to toss Wilson into the Lackey/Burnett bracket and expect a similar contract.  But Lackey had missed a month in each of his previous seasons and had totaled 373 innings.  Burnett was coming off a career-best 221 1/3 innings, but had pitched only 301 1/3 over the previous two seasons.  Meanwhile Wilson is projecting for perhaps 225 innings this year, for a total exceeding 450 over 2010-11.  He doesn't come with the injury concern Lackey and Burnett did.

Also consider that Burnett signed after the '08 season and Lackey after '09, so even if Wilson were comparable to them he'd deserve more based on inflation.  I think there's an easy case for $90MM over five years, so it's not crazy to think one team would add a sixth year or take him to the $20MM per year range.  This only applies if we're talking about a free agent bidding war – if the Rangers re-sign him prior to open season, it'll be for less.  It should be noted that the Yankees and Red Sox figured prominently into all four free agent contracts mentioned above, so their involvement with Wilson will be a huge factor.

We also have to look at what the free agent and trade markets will offer in terms of competition.  Sabathia could again be the free agent prize if he opts out, but he'll require a commitment well beyond Wilson that only a few teams could handle.  Sabathia could re-sign with the Yankees early on, which might take them out of the Wilson bidding but also leave him as the best available starter, easily above Edwin Jackson or Hisashi Iwakuma.  Yu Darvish being posted would shake things up, though some teams might still prefer Wilson.  The trade market figures to feature Wandy Rodriguez and perhaps a few surprises, but I'm not sure there's a Zack Greinke, Matt Garza, or Shaun Marcum-caliber pitcher in the mix for this offseason.

Wilson's progression has been amazing – an '08 season that ended with elbow surgery, 14 saves and a 10.3 K/9 relieving in '09, a mid-rotation type in '10, and an ace in '11.  Now it's time to see what he's worth.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Poll: The Brewers’ Best Trade

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The White Sox told their fans they were going “all in” this year, but that slogan might have worked better a bit further north. Brewers GM Doug Melvin has traded prospect after prospect since last season in an attempt to reinforce his club for a run at the playoffs.

The Brewers gave up a lot, but their plan is working so far. Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum have provided upgrades in the rotation, Nyjer Morgan is hitting like never before and the most recent addition, Francisco Rodriguez, has provided manager Ron Roenicke’s bullpen with a boost.

The Brewers lead the NL Central with a 66-50 record. Which of their recent trades was the best one?

Poll: Should The Rays Trade B.J. Upton This Winter?

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The Rays received a great deal of calls on B.J. Upton in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline with the Braves, Indians, Nationals, Phillies, and Pirates all being linked to the center fielder.  While we saw star outfielders Carlos Beltran, Colby Rasmus, and Hunter Pence change teams, Tampa Bay wound up hanging on to the soon-to-be 27-year-old.

Upton is earning $4.825MM this season as he enters his final year of arbitration and is due for a healthy raise in 2012.  After that, he'll be in line for a big payday when he hits free agency.  So far in 2011, Upton has hit .230/.313/.404 with 16 homers while playing a slightly below average center field according to his -2.0 UZR/150.  Of course, the idea of parting with Upton isn't completely unpalatable thanks to the presence of 24-year-old Desmond Jennings, who is under team control through 2015.

Should the Rays trade Upton this winter or hang on to him and re-evaluate during the season?

Poll: The Padres And Heath Bell

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It came as something of a surprise when the Padres retained closer Heath Bell at Sunday's non-waiver trade deadline. A pending free agent on a small-market club, Bell was considered the favorite among relievers on this July's trade market to find a new home.

However, no suitor could meet the Padres' asking price, apparently, which is reported to have been some player (or players) the Friars deemed to be of equal value to the two compensatory draft picks they'd receive in the offseason if Bell were to sign elsewhere after turning down arbitration.

The situation has grown complicated for the Padres, however, as Buster Olney of ESPN.com and Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com explained in separate pieces today. After the deadline, Bell said he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offered it to him, which would not be cost effective for a team on a tight budget. After all, Bell, 34 in September, could earn as much as $12-13MM in 2012 after another trip through arbitration.

The Padres also don't seem especially inclined to offer him a long-term deal — even at a discount — because he's said since Spring Training that he'd take one, and yet none has come to fruition. The others options are to trade him this month after putting him on waivers, which is not easy and compromises bargaining leverage, or to perhaps release Bell after going through arbitration if the price is exorbitant, a scenario put forth by Tom Krasovic of Inside The Padres.

If you're wondering about the fantasy ramifications of this situation, check out the post I wrote up today over at CloserNews.com.

Anyway, what would you do if you were the Padres?

Poll: Beltran Or Upton?

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Tonight's post regarding the emergence of B.J. Upton on the outfield trade market has already prompted a lengthy, and still growing, discussion thread among our faithful readers.

In short, the Mets have new competition in their quest to trade their premium outfielder, Carlos Beltran, in the form of the Rays and Upton. Because of the complicated circumstances surrounding a potential Beltran trade, interest is shifting toward Upton, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com.

Beltran might be more attractive because he's a better hitter than Upton. However, questions remain about Beltran's defense in the outfield, as he's probably best suited for work in a corner spot. As well, he's a free agent at season's end, and his contract includes a stipulation that he may not be offered arbitration, meaning teams will be reluctant to part with top prospects for a two-month rental who won't yield compensatory draft picks. Upton, meanwhile, is a better defender, is a pure center fielder, and is under team control through 2012.

If you were a team searching for an outfielder, would you pursue Beltran or Upton?

Poll: Rays At The Deadline

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Winning and building for the future represent a delicate balance for the Rays, who operate on a tight budget each year. They entered tonight's game vs. the Red Sox in third place in the AL East, six games behind Boston and five behind second-place New York. In its most recent Playoff Odds Report, Baseball Prospectus listed the Rays as having an 8.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason.

However, Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times wrote today that the Rays are more likely to be buyers than sellers this month, as they seem inclined to further build their core, rather than breaking it down (here's Topkin's list of players the Rays might consider selling). Executive vice president Andrew Friedman told Topkin that he hopes to add a player who can help the Rays in 2011 and beyond, and that the Rays' deep farm could allow him to make such a trade, though certain prospects are highly unlikely to be made available.

Tampa Bay is in a tough spot, being a solid team in a brutal division. Friedman's vision of adding a good, cost-controlled player sounds good, but it could be tough to pull off without dealing a high-end prospect. What would you do if you were the Rays?

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