Mets Catching Priorities And More
Talked to my Mets source recently, and their priorities for catcher are as follows.
1. Ramon Hernandez, but only at the right length (three years) and price (maybe $8MM per). The Mets are pretending publicly they’d start the season with Ramon Castro behind the plate. That posturing is similar to the Yankees’ assertion that they could begin the ’06 season with Bubba Crosby in center. Not gonna happen.
2. Bengie Molina, if he takes less cash than Hernandez.
3. Brad Ausmus.
4. Toby Hall through trade.
Ivan Rodriguez is not on the club’s radar due to injury concerns and his salary.
The Mets are likely to trade Jeff Keppinger or Anderson Hernandez and start the remaining player in Triple A in 2006. They have an eye on Mark Grudzielanek to fill the 2B void.
The latest on Manny Ramirez is that the Red Sox are simply asking for too much from the Mets for the slugger. New York is the one serious trade partner for Ramirez and won’t be surrendering Lastings Milledge and Cliff Floyd.
Kris Benson Trade: Update
Wondering what’s up with that seemingly inequitable Kris Benson for Jorge Julio deal that fizzled last night? My Mets source has the scoop.
"Mets are hanging onto Benson for now. Rumor of the deal being close to completion was leaked to NY Post so that other teams who may have interest in Benson could come back to them with a better offer next week."
This is the same source that gave me the Billy Wagner deal, so I’m confident in his take on Benson.
Seems the Mets played the Post to test the waters. Many analysts wrote the inequity of the deal off as a salary dump, but cutting $5MM isn’t really going to change the way the Mets do business. The club floated the idea of dealing a decent #3 starter for a lousy, overpaid reliever, and it’s likely that a starting pitching-starved team tops Jorge Julio. The Angels are one team that can be considered to have a surplus of solid bullpen arms and a possible need for a starter like Benson.
Kris Benson For Jorge Julio Possible
At least three sources are reporting that the Mets have officially dealt Kris Benson for Jorge Julio. On the other hand, MetsBlog says the above sources jumped the gun. In case the deal or something like it occurs, here’s a rundown of the pitchers.
A recap of my synopsis of Benson from a week ago:
He was much worse away from Shea Stadium.
He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2000.
His 2005 strikeout rate was a career low.
Nonetheless, Benson makes a passable #3 starter. As a flyball pitcher moving from one of the toughest parks in which to homer to a neutral one, Benson figures to see his ERA hit 4.50 or higher in 2006. The Mets are free of $15MM due to Benson for 2006-07.
They will have to cover roughly $3MM coming to Jorge Julio. The right-hander hasn’t been particularly good since 2002, the year he somehow managed to keep the ball in the park. Since then, his home run rate has been poor and he’s allowed tons of baserunners.
Fallout from the deal:
Some speculate Julio makes Aaron Heilman expendable, but it doesn’t seem likely the Mets would think that way.
The Orioles might pull back in their pursuit of Paul Byrd, or perhaps he’s reached a deal elsewhere. A Benson addition might indicate an Erik Bedard deal on the horizon, although co-VP Mike Flanagan has said he’s not shopping Bedard.
While it’s being called a salary dump, the Mets only clear $5MM in the deal for ’06. It’s not as if that $5MM was holding Minaya back from a big deal he wanted to make. The key to the deal is more that it opens up a rotation spot for a Javier Vazquez-type trade. While the Mets are quickly being heralded as National League favorites, their starting rotation is not particularly fearsome at present.
Thanks to Steve and Brian
Where’s Javier Vazquez Headed?
Ken Rosenthal had an informative article yesterday about starting pitchers likely to be traded. It’s not loaded with new information, but it’s a handy summary. One bit of new info (at least for me) was a list of likely suitors for Javier Vazquez. Rosenthal named the Braves, Cubs, Mets, and Indians as likely to be interested. In the same sentence, Rosenthal mentioned that Vazquez’s trade request was to join a team closer to his home in Puerto Rico.
Vazquez was born in Ponce, Puerto Rico. I’m not sure if he still lives there, but it’s a reasonable assumption. If Vazquez’s true main concern is to be as physically close to possible to Ponce, and Rosenthal’s list of suitors is accurate, it would be helpful to know the distance from Ponce to each team’s city. That’s why I compiled this handy chart.
| Distance from Ponce, Puerto Rico (miles) | |
| Atlanta | 1548 |
| New York | 1632 |
| Cleveland | 1851 |
| Chicago | 2064 |
| Phoenix | 3000 |
You can see why he was getting a little homesick playing in Arizona. If geography is any indicator, Atlanta is the frontrunner. Maybe they would ship Kyle Davies and change over to the D’Backs.
Ah, but what if Vazquez simply wants to be near large numbers of Puerto Ricans? New York blows other U.S. cities out of the water, of course.
How about Puerto Ricans as a percent of the total city population? Not a big surprise:
| % of Total Population | |
| New York, NY | 9.0 |
| Chicago, IL | 1.8 |
| Cleveland, OH | 1.6 |
| Atlanta, GA | 0.5 |
| Arizona | 0.4 |
Though Atlanta is a little closer to Puerto Rico, the Vazquez should feel right at home with the Mets. Indeed, such a trade is on the table.
Mets Sign Billy Wagner
Ken Rosenthal is single-handedly blowing ESPN out of the water today. First he scooped the Esteban Loaiza signing, and now he’s broken the Billy Wagner deal with the Mets.
While MLBTradeRumors.com’s source may have jumped the gun by a week, he was correct in asserting that the Mets would definitely guarantee a fourth year to Wagner and complete the deal sooner rather than later. The Mets hold an option for a fifth year of Wagner for $10MM, a move necessitated by the market-setting B.J. Ryan signing.
Wagner was the reliever closest to a sure thing this winter, as he boasts a 2.40 career ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 11.99 K/9. Should Aaron Heilman continue his relief dominance and remain with the club in 2006, each game will essentially become a 7-inning affair for the Mets.
Thanks to the many emailers who have passed along information about this signing.
Soriano To The Mets: Update
We have an update on the Alfonso Soriano to the Mets rumor posted earlier today. MLBTradeRumors.com has learned that the Milledge and Trachsel for Soriano deal was proposed prior to the acquisition of Carlos Delgado. Now that Delgado has been acquired, the Mets will turn their focus to Billy Wagner and Ramon Hernandez.
Soriano is considered nonessential to the Mets at this point, and any trade for him would not include Lastings Milledge. The Rangers have a stronger need for pitching and that will be the focus of any Soriano deal.
Soriano for Milledge and Trachsel Proposed
We have some new details from my Mets source concerning a possible trade of Alfonso Soriano to the Mets. The latest report is that the Mets would send Lastings Milledge and Steve Trachsel to the Rangers for Soriano. The deal would be contingent on Soriano signing a long-term extension to play second base (not outfield).
The 35 year-old Trachsel would be a decent, affordable addition to the back-end of the Texas rotation. Jon Daniels may express concerns about Trachsel’s performance away from Shea Stadium in his last full season (2004). That year, Trachsel posted a 5.65 ERA with 16 HR allowed on the road. On the other hand, Trachsel was actually better on the road than at Shea in 2003. Trachsel’s 2006 option will pay him anywhere from $2.5MM-7MM based on innings pitched. He could be worth 4-5 wins in 2006.
Lastings Milledge was ranked the 4th best outfield prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus before the 2005 season. He did nothing to change that perception in ’05, batting .318 at Single and Double A stops. He projects to be worth 3 wins at the Major League level in 2006.
The OBP deficient Alfonso Soriano would be a curious addition to the Mets’ lineup. He was especially poor away from Ameriquest in 2005, hitting .224/.265/.374 (AVG/OBP/SLG). The power splits are tough to decipher, as Ameriquest is known to boost HRs for right-handed hitters by only about 6%. Soriano hit .315/.355/.656 in Texas in ’05.
Defensively, Soriano placed 17th among regular second basemen in range factor in 2005. According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense, Soriano was the 19th best second baseman in baseball in 2005. He projects to be worth 6 wins in 2006 and should get a raise to about $10MM through arbitration.
Sources:
Baseball Prospectus
Bill James Handbook 2006
Cot’s Baseball Contracts
Mets Considering Javier Vazquez
All sorts of trade rumors coming from my source close to the Mets’ front office. While it is well-known that the Mets are interested in Arizona righthander Javier Vazquez, my source names a pitching prospect contrary to published reports.
According to my source, the Mets are considering dealing Kris Benson and 19 year-old blue chip pitcher Gaby Hernandez for Vazquez. Up to this point, published reports have named the polished 24 year-old Brian Bannister as the prospect in the deal.
While Hernandez has not pitched above A ball, he has a much higher ceiling than Bannister. Bannister did impress in 45 Triple A innings in 2005, however.
Vazquez’s problem lately has been the long ball. His HR/9 rate has hovered above 1.4 while his strikeout and walk rates were superb last season. Unfortunately for the Mets, Vazquez carried his home run woes with him on the road in ’05. It will troublesome if he continues to do so, but there’ s no doubt that Shea Stadium suppresses home runs (by 16%) and Chase Field inflates them (by 13%).
Even if Vazquez continues to surrender home runs, he’s a marked improvement over Kris Benson. Benson managed a 4.13 ERA in 2005 to Vazquez’s 4.45, but consider:
He’s two years older than Vazquez.
He was much worse away from Shea Stadium.
He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2000.
His 2005 strikeout rate was a career low.
Considering that the Mets appear to be entering extreme "win now" mode, the Vazquez trade is a good move even if Gaby Hernandez pans out in 2007.
Billy Wagner To Accept Four Year Offer Tuesday
A source in the Mets’ front office is telling MLBTradeRumors.com that the club will make a four year, $40MM offer to Billy Wagner immediately following his tour of the city. The deal might be announced by Wednesday morning. Omar Minaya is eager to get a deal done early this week so that he can focus on numerous other player acquisitions.
Minaya will be employing the same bait he used to reel in Pedro Martinez: the guaranteed fourth year. The Phillies (smartly) refuse to pay Wagner $10MM for a season during which he’ll turn 38.
Other sources close to the proceedings indicate that Wagner already had made his decision to join the Mets prior to his New York tour.
Luis Castillo To The Mets
Our suspicions from yesterday have been confirmed: Luis Castillo is definitely on the trading block. Many sources mention the Mets’ interest in the second baseman.
The names we’re hearing coming back from the Mets are shortstop Anderson Hernandez and/or second baseman Jeff Keppinger (via the Palm Beach Post). Alex Gonzalez won’t be returning to play shortstop in Florida, and the Marlins are less than confident in their top prospect at the position, Robert Andino. If the Mets would give up Hernandez, the Marlins would probably pull the trigger.
While Yusmeiro Petit is probably out of the question, the Mets could part with young righthander Gaby Hernandez. Hernandez looked fantastic in A ball in 2005 while still a teenager.
Luis Castillo is a top ten second baseman and perfect top-of-the-order hitter. His defense is superb and he’s due $5MM in 2006. The Mets aren’t the only team interested in his services – the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Twins are all in the running.
Thanks to Ben K.