Glavine Would Take Less Money For Braves
The AJC’s David O’Brien has a source close to Tom Glavine saying the free agent lefty would take less money to pitch for the Braves. Glavine made $10.5MM this year and already has the Mets’ $3MM buyout for ’08 in his pocket (figuratively).
O’Brien says the Braves are likely to bump up their $84MM payroll, but they’d have to go past $100MM to fit in a discounted Glavine. Or, they can clear payroll by trading Edgar Renteria for someone cheaper.
As for the talk of the Braves chasing a young Joe Blanton type, sure, I can see it. It’s just that the cupboard is a little bare.
Glavine Declines $13MM Option
As had been talked about, 41 year-old lefty Tom Glavine declined his $13MM player option for 2008. He snags a $3MM buyout in the process. This decision doesn’t seem to be about money; he just wants more time to decide between the Mets, Braves, and retirement. Actually, we might be able to count the previous Nationals speculation as a little more than that – Glavine’s agent revealed today that they won’t be ruled out.
MLB.com’s Marty Noble suggests that the Mets would be pleased to have Glavine return, but will move on and acquire another starter if he doesn’t. I’ve said this before but I wonder if the Mets will eventually be connected to Curt Schilling.
Santana Would Consider Waiving No-Trade Rights
Johan Santana gets a full no-trade clause for 2008 if he finishes top three in the Cy Young voting this year. In 2007 Santana was fifth in VORP and doesn’t even crack the top ten in ESPN’s Cy Predictor. Though I have to question the validity of any tool that puts Joe Borowski ninth.
Anyway, mostly because of the Twins missing the playoffs, it’s safe to say that Santana will not finish in the top three. Instead, he gets to choose 12 teams he cannot be traded to. As Nat Boyle recently noted, Santana could theoretically strategically select the 12 teams most likely to trade for him if he really wanted to stay in Minnesota for one more season.
That doesn’t seem likely, however. Based on this article from La Velle E. Neal III, Santana would likely give up his no-trade protection if A) the acquiring team was a contender and B) he was compensated $1-2MM to give up his rights.
All we’ve really seen so far is a questionable Matt Kemp/Clayton Kershaw rumor that doesn’t make it past my reality checker. We’ve also got Charley Walters saying there’s "little doubt" the Mets will pursue Santana, for what that’s worth. Buster Olney tosses out a Jose Reyes/Carlos Gomez/Mike Pelfrey for Santana and Jason Bartlett proposal. It doesn’t sound like any true trade discussions have leaked to the press yet. I wouldn’t expect things to get going until the Winter Meetings December 3-6 in Nashville.
The Tom Glavine Situation
No less than four articles surfaced today about Tom Glavine. There was Bob Klapisch on the harsh end, and George Vecsey on the calm side. A guy who’s been living on the edges for years, outpitching his peripherals, had a lousy final month to his season. And of course his final thrashing at the hands of the Marlins could not have come at a worse time.
But does this really change anything? Glavine still has to decide between retirement and playing. Then he might have to decide between the Mets and Braves. Omar Minaya is still waiting on Glavine’s decision and will leave the door open to him for $10-12MM. The Braves have the need but still probably don’t have the money. Chris Solberg weighs in on the Atlanta idea over at The Baseball Opinion. Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog thinks Glavine’s time in New York is up.
Perhaps these older hurlers will start to gravitate towards the Roger Clemens abbreviated season plan. Guys like Glavine and Curt Schilling could start their seasons a month or two late and experience a frenzy for their services.
Sunday Morning Santana
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the names being thrown around for Johan Santana. As well as the Kemp/Kershaw for Santana, Cafardo quotes an AL Executive:
One AL executive theorized, "There are a few teams who could match up with the Twins. Would the Yankees deal Melky Cabrera and an Ian Kennedy for Santana? How about Boston? Would they send a Clay Buchholz and a Jacoby Ellsbury for him? The Mets? There are few teams who could handle the paycheck you’d have to give Santana and also be able to part with key prospects."
If that logic is correct, it narrows the list of suitors considerably.
MLBTR readers made the astute point in the Kemp/Kershaw comments that if a team is going to give up two Major League-ready prospects, the deal would be contingent on a re-signing of Santana. A one year rental is most likely not going to appeal to any GM handing over otherwise untouchable commodities such as a Buchholz/Ellsbury or a Kennedy/Cabrera or a Kemp/Kershaw.
Which teams, therefore, can afford the likes of baseball’s best starting pitcher?
Here’s an intriguing twist. As most already know, it’s safe to assume Santana will not finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this year and therefore will not be gaining his no-trade clause for 2008. However, he still gets to choose up to 12 teams to which he can’t be traded. If for some reason he didn’t want to leave the Twins next season, could he strategically choose every team capable of dealing for him?
Despite not having a no-trade clause, it’s safe to note Santana will have considerable say in any deal.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
Alou Hopes To Return To Mets In ’08
The Mets have an interesting decision on their hands with Moises Alou, though it’s not exactly the team’s primary concern right now. That won’t stop us from talking about it!
Alou has a franchise-record 30 game hitting streak going as a 41 year-old. Since the start of 2006, he’s hit a monstrous .322/.373/.551 in 655 ABs. The problem is that he’s shown he’s only good for 90-100 games per year due to injuries.
In this day and age one can place a dollar value on such production. The numbers say Alou is roughly a 3.5 win player in the time he’s active. Last I heard a win was worth around $2.1MM – maybe a little extra to the Mets as a perennial contender. So let’s say Alou is worth $7.5MM even given a chunk of missed time. That makes the 2008 decision fairly easy – his option is for exactly that amount. The $1MM buyout pushes the decision even closer to exercising it.
Earlier in September, Alou said he’d retire if the Mets didn’t pick up the option. Alou’s tune hasn’t completely changed – he said "I don’t think so" when asked today if he’d continue playing if the Mets declined his option. However, he seems undecided and may try another club closer to his home in the Dominican Republic.
I don’t see the Marlins bringing him back, but the Braves could make sense. DHing for the Rangers could work as well. Still, the most likely outcome is the Mets exercising the option.
Glavine In ’08 – Undecided
I just read seven articles about Tom Glavine, all brought about by yesterday’s New York Post exclusive from Kevin Kernan. As Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog notes, it doesn’t seem necessary to worry about Glavine’s future until after the playoffs. Nonetheless, here’s where we stand this morning.
- Mark Hale of the New York Post says the Mets are again interested in signing Glavine if he decides to pitch. Unlike Kernan’s story yesterday, Hale does not say that Glavine would decline his likely $13MM player option to sign for $12MM. If he pitches – if – it will again come down to the Mets or Braves. The Mets are the favorite. Omar Minaya will wait for Glavine to come to him.
- Joel Sherman, also for the New York Post, writes that Glavine was exactly what the Braves needed this year. He thinks the Braves would’ve been in first right now if they’d signed Glavine for the discounted $10MM or whatever. I agree – Glavine is in general worth about six wins over replacement in a single season, and the Braves have had plenty of replacement level-pitching this year.
- Roger Rubin of the New York Daily News tosses in the idea of a Roger Clemens "family plan" for Glavine in ’08, where he’s only required to be with the team on days he pitches.
- David Lennon of Newsday spoke to a Mets official who feels it’s unlikely any extension gets done before the offseason.
- Don Burke of the Newark Star-Ledger says nothing’s really changed in the Glavine situation. He also gently chides the Post yesterday for their "breathless" headline.
- Glavine spoke to Steve Popper of the Bergen Record in double negatives just to increase confusion.
- Ben Shpigel of the New York Times thinks Omar Minaya would be inclined to decline Glavine’s $13MM option and negotiate something at a lower price. But everything I’ve read has called it a player option, so I’m not sure if Minaya can do that. Shpigel thinks that if Glavine pitches, it will "almost certainly be with the Mets." He also notes Shawn Green musing on his future. Green’s $10MM option for ’08 will be bought out for $2MM, and the outfielder doesn’t want a utility role if he plays next year.
Glavine Likely To Pitch For Mets In ’08
The New York Posts’s Kevin Kernan has an exclusive report today on Tom Glavine. He’s got many quotes from Glavine indicating that the 41 year-old southpaw will play another season and stay with the Mets. Glavine’s family is encouraging him to play again. He can also aim to improve his standing in career wins from 21st to 16th.
According to Kernan, Glavine will likely decline his player option and instead ink a new one-year pact for around $12MM. That is curious to me because the player option is likely to reach $13MM if Glavine reaches 200 innings this year.
Kernan adds that the Braves could still try to lure Glavine back but it seems unlikely given the price. However with the new ownership and the clear need for one good starter, the possibility can’t be eliminated. If such a scenario does occur, the Mets could always make a similar offer to Curt Schilling.
Livan Hernandez Hopes To Pitch With El Duque
Livan Hernandez, half-brother of Orlando, were all set to pitch together as Expos in 2003 until El Duque succumbed to a shoulder injury. Livan, a free-agent-to-be, mentioned recently that he still aims to pitch with his half-brother.
El Duque is signed through 2008 as a Met; could they make room for Livan in next year’s rotation? Duque, Oliver Perez, and John Maine are locked in. Tom Glavine’s status is in question; Livan could conceivably fill Glavine’s rotation spot. If Glavine reaches 200 innings this year, he’ll have a $13MM player option for ’08. It might be hard to turn that down.
The market is weak enough where a past-his-prime innings eater like Livan Hernandez might be a hot commodity. If he’s looking for a 3/36 type deal, the Mets would probably pass.
Mets Acquire Conine
UPDATE: According to Ken Rosenthal, the Mets are on the verge of getting Conine for two low-level minor leaguers.
According to Ben Shpigel of the New York Times, the Mets might consider trading for Reds outfielder Jeff Conine. The need was created when Damion Easley endured a Grade 3 ankle sprain.
Conine, 41, has about $480K left on his contract this year. He’s known to have cleared waivers, and I’m sure he can be had for a song.