Posting Possibility: Kei Igawa
Kei Igawa is a 27 year-old southpaw with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. He pitched 200 innings this year with a 3.11 ERA and 8.3 K/9, winning 13 games.
Igawa made a request for posting after 2005, but was denied. While Igawa hopes to be posted this winter, the Tigers’ owner seems opposed to the idea. There’s also the somewhat odd and perhaps related occurence of Igawa breaking down in tears on the mound after his final home start. If he’s not posted, Igawa will become a free agent after the 2009 season.
Reader Iwanaga Tak was kind enough to give me some info and translate this article for me. Apparently, there is a chance Igawa could be posted if Hanshin signs free agent hurler Hiroki Kuroda to replace him as their ace. American scouts haven’t shown much interest in the 31 year-old Kuroda, who is a free agent.
Speculation has Igawa’s posting fee expected to be around $10MM, a little less than Ichiro’s. If he is posted, he’d be a #3-4 type starter with a salary in the range of $3MM annually. Interested parties include the Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Tigers. Hanshin should make a decision about posting Igawa after the Japan Series, which starts next week.
2007 New York Mets
Let’s see what’s in store for the Mets next year. Their playoff appearance this year should ensure that ownership spends some more money to plug any holes.
By the way, you can read any of my 2007 Team Outlooks here.
Omar Minaya’s contractual obligations:
C – Paul LoDuca – $6.5MM
C – Ramon Castro – $0.8MM
1B – Carlos Delgado – $14.5MM
2B –
SS – Jose Reyes – $2.5MM
3B – David Wright – $1MM
IF – Julio Franco – $1.1MM
IF – Ruben Gotay – $0.3405MM, Anderson Hernandez – $0.327MM
LF – Lastings Milledge – $0.415MM
CF – Carlos Beltran – $12MM
RF – Shawn Green – $3.7MM
OF – Endy Chavez – $0.5MM
SP – Pedro Martinez – $14MM
SP – Tom Glavine – $7.5MM player option; $14MM club option. Both have $3MM buyout
SP – Oliver Perez – $1.9MM
SP – Brian Bannister – $0.327MM
SP – Philip Humber – $0.84MM
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $1.3125MM
SP – John Maine – $0.33MM
SP – Victor Zambrano – $3MM
SP – Dave Williams – $1.4MM
RP – Alay Soler – $0.93MM
RP – Billy Wagner – $10.5MM
RP – Duaner Sanchez – $0.3995MM
RP – Aaron Heilman – $0.359MM
RP – Heath Bell – $0.33MM
RP – Henry Owens – $0.33MM
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $0.33MM
RP – Royce Ring – $0.33MM
RP – Matt Lindstrom – $0.33MM
The Mets come in at about $81MM with this group, excluding Glavine. If Glavine were to stay maybe the sides would meet in the middle at $11MM. While it’s true that not every player listed above will receive a Major League salary, some guys will get raises. Let’s say they’re at $95MM with Glavine, and $84MM without. The Mets entered the season with a $101MM payroll.
One hole the Mets should fill is second base. There are your usual mid-range free agents, and then there’s Alfonso Soriano. Soriano could be used in left field if the Mets trade Milledge or decide he’s not ready. Recent word is that Sori will be priced out of the Mets’ range. I think that’s silly given the playoff revenue and payroll room. Sure, the Mets don’t need him. But why not build a National League juggernaut? His offense could become vital if, say, a 35 year-old Delgado gets hurt or declines. There’s also Julio Lugo, who would be happy to play second as a Met.
As I said, the Mets can go with Milledge in left. Or right, if you think flip-flopping him with Green improves the defense. With a win now team like the Mets, Milledge probably isn’t who you want starting in the outfield. The Yankees would not enter 2007 with Melky Cabrera in left, especially if Cabrera had just 162 big league ABs. Minaya can just leave him in Triple A, wait until he hits so well that there’s no choice but to play him. In the meantime there are fine options like Moises Alou and David Dellucci on the market. Either player would make sense on a two-year deal.
The position players are otherwise set in stone, and the outlook is good.
The pitching situation is also very promising. The Mets are literally ten-deep in the rotation. And it’s not all mid-range guys, as Perez, Humber, and Pelfrey have a lot of upside. It’ll be hard to do if he becomes a playoff hero, but the Mets should probably let Glavine go to the Braves. Maybe that’s what Glavine will prefer anyway. The Mets just have tons of far cheaper, comparable starting options. Maybe the recent "we don’t need Zito" thing is a smokescreen, but the Mets really don’t need Zito.
The bullpen looks equally deep. It’s anchored by Wagner and Sanchez. Beyond that plenty of cheap, young players are showing promise. I wouldn’t tinker with the pen.
If I’m Omar, I would sign Soriano to play second. Yes, it’s a deal that won’t end well. It’s the price you pay to get the available star without giving up young talent. I’d also pick up Alou for left field and find a respectful way to have Glavine move on. Then I’d let the chips fall for April and May and see if I need anything. If Pedro isn’t holding up, or several of the younger starters falter, I’d try to trade for Jason Jennings or Jake Westbrook.
Daisuke Matsuzaka Video
A little more on Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka. Check out this video of him throwing his various pitches. It’s the best look I’ve had at his breaking ball. It might be a screwball or something weird, but let’s remember that Jeff Passan has established that it’s not a gyroball.
When we last checked in, there was a 50/50 chance of Matsuzaka being posted by the Lions. Here’s a rundown on the suitors:
This Boston Herald article informed us that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are currently scouting Matsuzaka in Japan. As of September 11th, his numbers looked like this. Newsday tells us the Mets will be aggressive in their pursuit. The Rangers are scouting Matsuzaka as well. The Orioles expressed interest in August.
The Dodgers and Mariners are often linked to Matsuzaka, but I haven’t seen anything lately on those clubs.
Julio Lugo Considering Mets
Word comes today from the New York Post that free agent infielder Julio Lugo grew up a Mets fan and will "definitely" consider the club if they’re interested. He’s open to second base or shortstop for his new team.
Last year, Lugo’s age 29 season, looked like a career year for the shortstop. He hit .295/.362/.403 and was the fifth best shortstop in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus. This season, in an injury-shortened 72 games with the Devil Rays, Lugo hit .308/.373/.498. All three marks are career bests.
At the trading deadline, the Dodgers sent promising young prosect Joel Guzman to the Devil Rays for Lugo. Lugo’s been a terrible hitter for L.A. while playing 2B, 3B, and even a little OF. It was a curious trade for Los Angeles.
As the easy choice for the best shortstop on the market, Lugo should command upwards of four years and $40MM. It would be surprising to see the Mets pay that kind of money for a second baseman, so Lugo would probably have to give a hometown discount to become a Met. Several teams are going to entertain the possibility of Lugo as their next shortstop. Possibilities include the Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Reds. The smart money is on the Red Sox or Jays.
There was some ugliness involving Lugo and his wife in 2003. The Astros instantly demoted Lugo after he reportedly assaulted his wife. He was later found innocent after Mabely Lugo changed her story.
Minor Moves: Diaz, Ardoin
A couple of small deals came over the wires recently.
The Rangers acquired outfielder Victor Diaz for catcher Mike Nickeas. Diaz, 24, is having big-time problems with Triple A this season (.606 OPS). It’s surprising because he hit Triple A pitching pretty well as a 22 year-old. He earned 280 ABs with the big club last year and managed to slug .468.
Back in the summer of ’03, Diaz was sent from the Dodgers to the Mets in the Jeromy Burnitz deal. He’s not known for his defense, and has been tried at 1B, 2B, 3B, C, LF, and RF in his career. Perhaps a steady position and a change of scenery will get this once top-prospect back on track.
Nickeas is a 23 year-old catcher from Georgia Tech. He has never done much offensively at Double A and will report to the Class A St. Lucie Mets. He could be a Major League backup a few years down the road.
Speaking of backup backstops, the Orioles claimed Danny Ardoin off waivers from the Rockies. He’s a 32 year-old minor league lifer. It’s hard to make this move sound interesting. He played with Miguel Tejada in the minors, does that help?
Mets Could Still Add Alou
According to Jon Heyman at Sports Illustrated, some Mets officials still hope to trade for Moises Alou even with Shawn Green already in the fold. An independent source of mine has verified that given Cliff Floyd‘s inability to stay healthy, the Mets would still like to add Alou.
Alou has spent plenty of time in his career at both outfield corner positions. He’s playing right field for the Giants right now more out of necessity, as his defense can be ugly at age 40. He’ll be a free agent after this season, and still mashes when he’s on the field. He’s hitting .292/.350/.522 this season in 247 ABs. Alou has dealt with a myriad of injuries this season, and would make a great candidate to play in the AL for the first time in his career next season. He’s making $6MM this year.
San Francisco is five games out after last night’s win and have won seven of their last nine.
Mets Trade For Shawn Green
The Mets’ much-anticipated acquisition of 33 year-old right fielder Shawn Green was completed today.
As I mentioned a week ago, Green represents only a mild improvement over Endy Chavez. Still, Green has heated up over the last week (.316/.409/.526) and probably didn’t cost much besides money. It’s not a difference maker, but I can see why the Mets would prefer Green and his track record. The only reason I don’t like the deal for New York is that they’re stuck with Green and his age 34 season in 2007. I just hope that Willie Randolph can push Green aside if Lastings Milledge is the superior player next season.
Minor Trades and Rumors
The Cubs unloaded Neifi Perez on the Tigers today, and it was no surprise Neifi got through waivers. What team would want to be on the hook for $2.5MM for him next year? Ditching Neifi at this point at least partially rights the wrong of signing him to an extension in the first place for Jim Hendry. The Cubs’ "everything man" will be making outs atop of Detroit’s lineup now. Even more impressive is that Hendry snagged a 22 year-old catching prospect, Chris Robinson, in the deal.
The Mets added righty reliever Guillermo Mota today. Along with Oliver Perez, this is another project with plenty of upside. Mota was one of the game’s top setup men a few years ago.
Tom Glavine‘s got a possible blood clot, which could mean season or career-ending surgery. At least his life is not in danger. The news first appeared on an ESPN message board from a man said to be Glavine’s brother-in-law. Back when Glavine appeared healthy, the same source indicated that the southpaw would finish his career with the Braves, at any salary.
Reggie Sanders may have cleared waivers. Who wants a 38 year-old right fielder with a .248/.304/.424 line? Don’t forget the $5MM he’s owed next year.
From Yankees announcer Jim Kaat: the Rangers may be talking to the Orioles about Mark Teixeira. Tex is from Maryland, for what it’s worth.
Plenty of buzz going around in various forms of media that the Red Sox may acquire reliever LaTroy Hawkins. We’ll know soon enough. The 33 year-old has, at least, kept the ball in the yard and exhibited good control with the Orioles this year.
Mets Pursuing Shawn Green
According to the East Valley Tribune, the Mets are hot on the tail of Arizona right fielder Shawn Green. Jack Magruder tells us:
"There are strong indications that the Diamondbacks will ask Shawn Green to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate a trade to the New York Mets, although Green said after Saturday’s game no such request has been made. The Mets asked the D-Backs about Green earlier this week, after he cleared waivers, sources said Saturday.
While Green can veto a trade to a team other than San Diego, Anaheim or San Francisco, a deal to the Mets would reunite him with good friend Carlos Delgado, who was in Green’s wedding and played with Green in Toronto from 1993-99."
This week, the Mets have been using Endy Chavez, Lastings Milledge, and newly acquired Ricky Ledee in right field. Chavez, 28, is playing the best ball of his career and is even showing a little pop (.436 SLG). At .284/.349/.429, Green has a nearly identical stat line to Chavez. Any improvement would be minimal, but perhaps the Mets could acquire Green without surrendering much.
Mets Come Out Ahead In Jose Reyes Signing
The Mets got a fantastic bargain Thursday in signing Jose Reyes to a four-year contract extension. New York bought out Reyes’s arbitration years and his first year of free agency. They also included an option to keep him for the 2011 season at $11MM.
Jon Heyman’s thoughts on the deal:
"I bet Jose Reyes‘ four-year $23.25 million contract isn’t the union’s favorite, and well-regarded agent Peter Greenberg sounded almost apologetic at the press conference on Thursday. Reyes almost surely would make more by going year to year, as Derek Jeter did, but that’s not easy to do when you grow up poor, and particularly when you’ve had injuries."
Reyes is just 23 and is in the midst of a breakout season. His OBP and SLG are by far career bests. Rickey Henderson seems to have helped this spring. More teams should try relationships like this. Even though Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system did not see these spikes coming, projections still indicate that every year of the contract, 2011 included, is a bargain for the Mets.