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Shohei Ohtani Rumors: Saturday

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The latest on game-changing Japanese ace/slugger Shohei Ohtani, whom the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters posted on Friday and who’s at the beginning of a three-week window to work out an agreement with a major league team:

  • The Ohtani sweepstakes is seemingly on the verge of picking up in earnest, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that the 23-year-old CAA Sports client will meet with various teams in Los Angeles next week (Twitter link). The Mariners are among those clubs, suggests Passan, who relays that team brass has asked multiple members of its roster to clear their schedules for a potential meeting with Ohtani. That comes on the heels of general manager Jerry Dipoto’s revelation last week that the Mariners are preparing an aggressive push press for Ohtani. “We’re not joking around. We’re bringing the big guns,” declared Dipoto (Twitter link via Greg Johns of MLB.com).
  • Ohtani’s camp will notify certain teams this weekend if they’ll remain in the mix to sign him, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Padres are hopeful they’ll advance to the next round. “As a group, we’re prepared, and I think he’s a player that obviously we’ve scouted and have history with,” GM A.J. Preller told Lin. “You try to see what the fits are and why he’s a good fit for us and why we’re a good fit for him. We’re kind of down the path of doing that work.”
  • The Red Sox will also chase Ohtani, per president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald via text: “Would acknowledge our interest. Beyond that, all would be confidential.” Ohtani joining Chris Sale and David Price would make for a rather enticing top of the rotation, needless to say, and he could also factor in as a designated hitter for a Boston club that received uninspiring production there last season in the first year of the post-David Ortiz era.
  • Count the World Series-winning Astros as yet another team that will court Ohtani. Owner Jim Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the Astros will “put a full-court press on” to sign Ohtani, adding that they’ll “probably send the A-team out there.” He also noted that the Astros “need a left-handed DH, so there you have it.” In addition to having the ability to demonstrate his offensive prowess in Houston, Ohtani would add another potential front-end starter to a rotation that already includes past Cy Young winners Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel.
  • While the Rays are obvious long shots to land Ohtani, they have an advantage over other teams with the presence of two-way prospect Brendan McKay, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times observes. McKay, the fourth overall pick in last year’s draft, could be both a pitcher and a hitter in the majors. “We’re hopeful (McKay) can do it,” Rays GM Erik Neander said. “We want to give him the opportunity to do it because he’s shown he deserves that opportunity and we don’t want to take that away from him prematurely.” Citing McKay’s presence, the Rays will emphasize to Ohtani that they’re open-minded about developing and employing a two-way player, per Topkin, who also expects them to pitch Tampa Bay’s “relaxed” lifestyle during the recruiting process.
  • The Marlins, MLB’s other Florida-based organization, are unlikely to make an effort for Ohtani, Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun Sentinel writes. The cost-cutting Marlins are wary of the financial commitment it would take to reel in Ohtani, who won’t require much from a salary standpoint but will cost a $20MM posting fee. While that looks like a relatively minor amount for a possible franchise face like Ohtani, the Marlins simply aren’t in position to fork it over in their current financial state, Healey explains.
  • While the Indians only have $10K in international bonus pool space, they’re expected to partake in the Ohtani derby, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. He’d slot into an already loaded rotation, one which features two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco; additionally, Ohtani could DH for a team at risk of losing Carlos Santana in free agency.
  • All things considered, the Yankees may be the favorites for Ohtani. There’s a general “fear” coming from other franchises regarding the Bronx Bombers, tweets Passan, given the talent on hand, the market they’re in and their strong relationship with CAA Sports. They also have the second-biggest international bonus pool.

Reactions to the Yankees’ Hiring of Aaron Boone

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Last night, we learned that Aaron Boone will be the next manager for the Yankees, filling the shoes of ten-year veteran Joe Girardi. Because the former Yankee has never managed or coached at the professional level, his candidacy alone came as a surprise. However, GM Brian Cashman is obviously all-in on him, and seems confident in the hiring.

Here are some interesting thoughts on the Boone hiring from the media…

  • Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic begins a piece by saying he will “not condemn” the hiring of Aaron Boone. Soon after, however, he clearly states that he cannot remember a hire with more risk in his 30-plus years of covering baseball. Rosenthal notes hires of Mike Matheny by the Cardinals and Robin Ventura by the White Sox as recent risks trending in this direction, due to those managers having very little coaching experience, but makes sure to add that neither of those hires were this extreme. Because Boone has a warm and friendly personality and is well-liked around the league, the Yankees seem to be shrugging off the concerns under the simple notion that he’s a great guy. As Rosenthal notes, many clubs are beginning to view managing as a “paint-by-numbers” exercise in which the manager is supplied with data by the front office. This might mean that the most important skill set for a managerial candidate is the ability to build a positive clubhouse culture, which Boone would certainly seem to possess. Still, it will be interesting to see how the rookie skipper reacts in his first exposure to a number of tough situations.
  • Andrew Marchand of ESPN tweeted a quote from Yankees principal owner Hal Steinbrenner that dates back to the GM meetings. “My concern about a candidate like that would just be the lack of managerial experience, but even more important, coaching experience of any kind. That would be a concern of mine. It might be less of a concern for Cash.” It’s an interesting footnote, and could potentially imply that this decision puts some weight on Cashman’s shoulders. In a piece for ESPN, Marchand paints Boone as a tremendous risk with a jewel of an opportunity; he certainly has an incredible group of young players to work with, including Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino. Like Rosenthal, Marchand sees Boone as having many of the requisite traits for success, but wonders how the he’ll respond to the grind of the job, particularly with such high expectations placed upon him.
  • In his own tweet, Bryan Hoch notes that Boone will be the first Yankees manager with no managerial or coaching experience since Bill Dickey all the way back in 1946. Dickey was ultimately inducted into the Hall of Fame, so there’s some precedent for managerial success without prior coaching experience.
  • Taking a more extreme stance, Joel Sherman of the New York Post describes Cashman’s hiring of Boone as “the gamble of his life”. However, Sherman makes sure to note the upside of that risk, citing Boone’s eight-year career at ESPN as a huge plus for the modern manager. Because of his career as an analyst, Boone possesses a wide knowledge of all 30 MLB teams, a firm grasp on how teams use analytics nowadays, and excellent media relations skills. All of these assets are valuable tools that could set him up for success, and Sherman sees the latter two as tools that Girardi lacked.

Yankees Have Made Managerial Hiring Decision

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6:49pm: Meulens is remaining in San Francisco, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle hears. (Twitter link.) In conjunction with the other reports, that would appear to suggest that Boone is the choice.

6:10pm: New York has made its decision, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, though it’s still not clear whether it’ll be Boone or Meulens.

5:00pm: Thomson has been informed that he will not get the job, Joel Shermanof the New York Post tweets. Likewise, Beltran has been told he’s no longer under consideration, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports tweets.

2:42pm: It is “likely” that either Boone or Meulens will receive the nod to become the next Yankees skipper, according to Bill Madden of the New York Daily News. Beltran was also among the group that “made the strongest impressions,” per the report, but Madden reasons that he is unlikely to get the job since he just wrapped up his playing career.

Meanwhile, Thomson is said to be a “leading candidate” to join the Phillies as their bench coach, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). WFAN’s Sweeny Murti had reported recently (via Twitter) that Thomson was interviewing with Philadelphia.

8:09am: The Yankees will not conduct any further interviews as they seek to fill their managerial vacancy, general manager Brian Cashman tells reporters (Twitter links via Ken Davidoff of the New York Post). The Yankees will not conduct a second round of interviews with the six candidates that have sat down with the team, either, Davidoff adds.

The latest development in what has been one of the lengthiest managerial searches in recent memory means that one of Rob Thomson, Hensley Meulens, Eric Wedge, Chris Woodward, Aaron Boone or the recently retired Carlos Beltran, who interviewed for the post yesterday, will be the Yankees’ new skipper. Unless Wedge is the ultimate selection for the Yankees, they’ll head into 2018 with a rookie skipper. More surprising is the fact that two of the final candidates, Boone and Beltran, have never even coached at the professional level.

To this point, none of the six has been characterized as any sort of favorite, though ESPN’s Andrew Marchand hears from two sources that Boone did quite well in his interview (Twitter links). Marchand also notes that he’s heard a positive review for Meulens and one for Beltran following their respective interviews as well.

Thomson, who served as the Yankees’ bench coach since 2015, would be a familiar choice for both the players and the front office. The Yankees may risk the possibility of losing him to another organization if he doesn’t ultimately get the managerial nod, as WFAN’s Sweeny Murti reported (on Twitter) this week that Thomson was also interviewing for the Phillies’ currently vacant bench coach position.

Meulens played with the Yankees from 1989-93 and has served as the Giants’ hitting coach dating back to 2010 (including in each of San Francisco’s three World Series-winning seasons). The Curacao native speaks five languages, including Spanish, Dutch and Japanese, which would serve him well as he communicates with a diverse group of players on the Yankees’ roster.

Wedge managed the Indians from 2003-09 and the Mariners from 2011-13 but hasn’t been in a big league dugout since the conclusion of that Seattle tenure. He spent two years serving as an ESPN analyst in the interim before taking a player development job with the Blue Jays prior to the 2016 season.

Woodward, the Dodgers’ third base coach, was on the Mariners’ coaching staff from 2014-15 and has been in his current position with the Dodgers since the 2016 season. He’s previously worked as a minor league infield coordinator (also with the Mariners) since retiring as a player back in 2012.

Neither Boone nor Beltran brings any field experience to the table, though that certainly doesn’t disqualify them as serious candidates for the job. Beltran only recently announced his retirement from a 20-year playing career that may very well culminate with enshrinement in Cooperstown. Boone has been a mainstay on ESPN since 2010 and enjoyed a solid 12-year playing career that included one of the most famous home runs in Yankees franchise history.

Shohei Ohtani Rumors: Friday

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Japan’s Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters are expected to formally post ace/slugger Shohei Ohtani today once a new posting system between Major League Baseball, the MLB Players Association and Nippon Professional Baseball has been formally ratified by Major League owners. The proposed system reportedly calls for a 21-day negotiation period for Ohtani this offseason, so within three weeks of his posting, it will finally be clear which team he’ll be suiting up for come 2018.

Here’s the latest chatter on Ohtani as he sits on the precipice of negotiations with Major League teams…

  • MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that executives from multiple teams are of the belief that Ohtani’s preference is to sign in a market that does not already have an established Japanese star, though Ohtani’s agents at CAA have not commented on that possibility. Morosi also spoke to one of Ohtani’s teammates in Japan, former big leaguer Brandon Laird, who offered a similar suggestion (Twitter link): “I feel like he just wants to come and not be compared to other guys who have already been here — to start fresh on his own, show what he can do by himself.”
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman publicly stated his interest in Ohtani for the first time today, calling Ohtani a “perfect fit” and voicing a willingness to let him pitch and hit with the Yankees (all Twitter links via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). “It’s a big stage here and it’s meant to have the best talent to play on it,” said Cashman. “Ohtani represents the next great talent that is available in the world of baseball. This stage is made for players like this.” While the Yankees’ interest in Ohtani is hardly a secret, Cashman had yet to go on-record to discuss his interest in bringing Ohtani to the Bronx prior to today.
  • Morosi also tweets that the conference call with MLB owners that will formally approve the posting agreement is set for 1pm ET this afternoon. The meeting is a formality at this point, though, and Ohtani is expected to be posted shortly thereafter.

Tender Deadline Notes: Mercer, Rays, Brewers, Cubs, Tigers, Romine

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Friday at 8pm EST marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts for the 2018 season, meaning that we’ll see a few difficult calls made on arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR recently compiled a list of the players we feel are most at risk to be non-tendered (with the proviso that many of the names on the list likely will not end up being set free). As ever, anticipated cost is a major factor, so you’ll want to reference the arbitration projections of MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz for a sense of where the salaries could be headed.

Here’s the latest chatter as the decision time draws near …

  • Some readers were surprised to see Pirates shortstop Jordy Mercer tabbed as a possible non-tender on MLBTR’s list. In our view, his hefty salary (projected at $6.5MM) and the possibility of finding cheaper alternatives combine to create some vulnerability — at least, that is, from an outside examination. The expectation of MLB.com’s Adam Berry, though, is that Pittsburgh will continue to rely on Mercer in his final season of arb eligibility. Berry cites Mercer’s steadiness and the fact that the team’s middle infield prospects aren’t quite ready yet to take over at short.
  • The Rays face a number of interesting arbitration decisions even after resolving one by trading Brad Boxberger; Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times runs through the list. The most recent report suggests that Tampa Bay will tender Brad Miller if they don’t trade him on Friday, and Topkin generally concurs with that assessment. While MLBTR feels there’s a chance that shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and catcher Jesus Sucre could be at risk, Topkin says the expectation is they’ll be retained. Rather, he feels the focus could remain on the relief corps, with pitchers Xavier Cedeno, Dan Jennings, and Chase Whitley all being candidates for something other than a straight tender. That could mean a trade, a pre-deadline deal to lock in their salary at a favorable rate, or perhaps a non-tender.
  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel similarly examines the choices facing the Brewers. Two players that MLBTR identified as plausible non-tender candidates, reliever Jeremy Jeffress and catcher Stephen Vogt, receive similar billing from Haudricourt, as does righty Jared Hughes. Per the article, Milwaukee has “probably been trying to do pre-deadline deals” with the two pen pieces, while Vogt could simply be sent onto the open market.
  • For the Cubs, too, the toughest calls may come in the relief department. As Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Times writes, and as MLBTR’s analysis has suggested, Hector Rondon ($6.2MM projection) and Justin Grimm ($2.4MM) may be entering their final day with the Chicago organization. Rondon, especially, could receive trade consideration from other teams if the Cubs decide it’s time to move on.
  • Speaking of pen pieces at risk, the Tigers landed two players on our list: righties Bruce Rondon ($1.2MM projection) and Alex Wilson ($2.1MM). Evan Woodberry of MLive.com tweets that both are indeed potential non-tender candidates for Detroit, but both are not necessarily going to be cut loose. In Woodberry’s estimation, the volatile Rondon is somewhat likely to be cut loose after allowing 19 earned runs in his 15 2/3 MLB innings in 2017. Though he continued to show swing-and-miss stuff, and posted a 2.70 ERA in his 36 2/3 frames at Triple-A, Rondon struggled to limit the free passes. As for the 31-year-old Wilson, it’s something of the opposite scenario for Woodberry. He says that he expects Wilson will be tendered despite a middling 4.50 ERA in his most recent season. The veteran did post similar K/BB figures to those that allowed him to generate better results in prior campaigns.
  • We drew some ire for suggesting that the Yankees could pass a chance at retaining catcher Austin Romine for his projected $1.2MM salary, but MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch suggests there’s some possibility that could occur. Even if he is not kept on the 40-man roster, says Hoch, Romine could be targeted to return on a minors pact. Of course, he’d also then have a chance to see if he could score a MLB slot with another organization. Romine limped to a .218/.272/.293 slash line in 252 plate appearances last year, but is generally regarded as a solid defender. It seems likely that the decision will come down to a question of whether the Yanks simply think they can do better with youngster Kyle Higashioka or another open-market option to complement regular Gary Sanchez.

Market Notes: Darvish, Donaldson, Frazier

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There has been no shortage of chatter on Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani over the past few weeks. We gathered up more news and rumors on each of these significant players yesterday — here and here, respectively. It’s fair to wonder whether their still-unsettled situations could be to blame for a notably sluggish start to the free agent market. The former, in particular, is a potential cause given that his massive contract and complicated trade situation might be hindering the development of the markets of premium free agents — though certainly other structural factors may be playing a far greater role, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports argues in a must-read piece.

  • Free agent righty Yu Darvish evidently still has a broad class of suitors, according to a report from Jim Bowden of Sirius XM (via Twitter). Six (unidentified) clubs have engaged on the veteran hurler, with about as many others seemingly having shown some degree of interest. That’s not surprising for a pitcher of Darvish’s stature — he entered the offseason atop MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents — but it does suggest that the back-and-forth is only just getting underway.
  • Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has explored the hypothetical possibility of the Blue Jays dangling star third baseman Josh Donaldson in trade. He first posited that Toronto could match up with the Cardinals in a swap that might allow both teams to maximize their resources and stay in contention. (Of course, this is presented as analysis, not a report of actual discussions.) And yesterday, Cameron argued that Donaldson might not bring maximum value if he’s ultimately shopped at the deadline (supposing, of course, that the Jays end up in a selling posture). Other premium hot corner rentals could also be available this summer, Cameron notes, and it seems unlikely that there’ll be a whole lot of demand.
  • Third baseman Todd Frazier is likely to plug a gap for one of the few contenders that does need a new option there. But he’s also still interested in returning to the Yankees, he tells MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Of course, that’s an organization that may well decide not to add at that position; we covered just that subject in some detail about a month back. Frazier says it’d be “great” to remain in the Bronx, but also suggests he may be resigned to finding a new home, noting that he “understand[s] the business” side of things.

The Yankees’ Managerial Search

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After the announcement that Joe Girardi won’t be back to manage the team in 2018, the Yankees are now looking for just their third skipper in the last 22 seasons.  The new manager will step into an enviable situation, taking over a team with one of the sport’s biggest payrolls and an array of young star talent, though there will be immediate pressure on the new dugout boss to win.  Eight years without a World Series counts as a major drought by the Yankees’ standards, and since the current roster finished just a game shy of the AL pennant, there is reason to believe this group is ready to win now.

As with previous managerial searches, we’ll keep a running post on any news and rumors connected to possible candidates for the Yankees’ job.

Latest Updates

  • The Yankees are not limiting themselves to the five candidates that are known to have interviewed, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden reports (Twitter links). That seems to introduce a bit of a wild card to the search at this stage. How many additional candidates might get interviews isn’t known, but there seems to be at least one name already on the list for a sit-down. Beltran, who is discussed further below, will be brought in for a closer look, according to Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (via Twitter).

Interviewing Candidates

  • Dodgers third base coach Chris Woodward is slated to interview, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. The former big league infielder has been a base coach and an infield instructor with the Dodgers and Mariners for the past four seasons. It is not known at present whether others will also get a shot at an interview, but owner Hal Steinbrenner did make clear the club will meet with “less than ten” candidates, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch recently tweeted. (The team’s plans for additional interview rounds are also not apparent.)
  • Broadcaster Aaron Boone and Giants coach Hensley Meulens have each had their interviews, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported would take place. Boone’s candidacy was first reported by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The long-time big leaguer, who spent a small but memorable portion of his career with the Yankees, does not have any big league coaching experience. Meulens is also a former Yankee player; Sherman first called him someone “who could come into play” for the job.
  • The Yankees have interviewed former Mariners and Indians skipper Eric Wedge for the post, tweets ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand. The 2007 American League Manager of the Year, Wedge hasn’t been in a big league dugout since the 2013 season — his final in Seattle. Since that time, he’s spent two seasons as an analyst with ESPN and another two working with the Blue Jays’ player development department. He’s currently a field coordinator in the Toronto organization.
  • Bench coach Rob Thomson sat down with the organization about the managerial opening on November 8th, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), though it doesn’t seem as if he faced the press afterward. Thomson has been on Girardi’s staff since 2008 and previously worked in the Yankees’ player development department.

Preliminary Candidates (Interview Status Unknown)

  • If Boone was an unexpected candidate, then the most recent possibility to be floated comes straight from left field — almost literally. Even as he announced the end of his playing career today, Carlos Beltran was generating buzz in relation to the Yankees managerial opening. In interviews with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and ESPN.com’s Marly Rivera, Beltran said he wants to manage (at least eventually) and suggested he’d have interest in the gig. Cashman did not commit to anything when asked to comment, saying that he’s “aware of [Beltran’s] interest in managing in the future” but declining to elaborate otherwise on the matter. Carlos Beltran tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that he had a “brief conversation” with GM Brian Cashman and that he has a desire to apply his knowledge and passion for the game to a managerial role in the Majors. Beltran also indicated that he hasn’t been asked to come in for an interview, though, and Sherman suggests that the Yankees may only interview one or two additional candidates for the position, casting some doubt as to whether Beltran is truly a possibility.
  • Former major league infielder/outfielder Jerry Hairston Jr. is a potential candidate, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears (Twitter link). Hairston was a member of the Yankees’ most recent World Series-winning team in 2009, but he doesn’t bring any coaching experience to the table. Interestingly, though, former ESPN.com writer Mark Saxon noted back in 2013 that managing could be in Hairston’s future. As Saxon detailed, Hairston is fluent in Spanish – a valuable asset for a manager – and, at the time, was a mentor to some of his younger teammates on the Dodgers. That season went down as the last of Hairston’s playing career. The 41-year-old has been working as a Dodgers broadcaster since retiring in December 2013.
  • Per Sherman and MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, some of the internal candidates likely to receive consideration include bench coach Rob Thomson, first base coach Tony Pena, minor league hitting and baserunning coach Reggie Willits, and minor league managers Al Pedrique (Triple-A), Jay Bell (advanced A-ball) and Josh Paul (short season A-ball).

Unlikely Candidates/Not In The Mix/No Longer Under Consideration

  • The Yankees asked the Athletics for permission to speak with manager Bob Melvin, but were not given authorization, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter).
  • Former Yankee outfielder and current Dodgers special adviser Raul Ibanez was mentioned by both Sherman and Hoch. But he decided not to pursue the position after being contacted, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post tweets.
  • Recently fired Tigers manager Brad Ausmus also declined a chance to interview, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
  • Josh Paul isn’t considered a candidate, according to George A. King III of the New York Post.
  • Kevin Long was initially cited by Sherman as “a long shot,” but has since signed on to become the Nationals’ hitting coach.
  • Yankees VP of baseball operations Tim Naehring tells ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand that he isn’t interested in being considered for the job.  Naehring has worked almost entirely in front office capacities for the Reds and Yankees since he retired from playing, and Marchand suggests that Naehring is a future GM candidate for other teams.
  • The Yankees have not contacted the Marlins about manager Don Mattingly, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported.  Miami has announced more recently that Mattingly will remain with the organization as manager.
  • The idea of Alex Rodriguez becoming the Yankees’ manager is “the longest of long shots,” according to Hoch.  Given the controversy and hard feelings that seemed to accompany A-Rod’s final years in New York, Rodriguez would indeed seem like a very unlikely fit, especially given how he has seemingly moved onto a new career in broadcasting.

Team Approach

  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman discussed the search with reporters, including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Cashman said that the organization prefers a “fresh voice” to connect with its young players, indicating that Girardi wasn’t the man to improve “the connectivity and the communication level of the players in that clubhouse.” The veteran executive says he did not enter the search process with a list of candidates already prepared, suggesting it’s a wide-open search.
  • Interestingly, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links), the plan is for candidates to meet with the media — in part, perhaps, as part of the evaluation process. And though Cashman says he may in the past have sought out employees with whom he had previously worked, he notes that won’t be a “driving force” in this case. Sherman previously discussed that potential factor.

Quick Hits: Ohtani, Yanks, Sabathia, Mariners, Iwakuma

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A few notes from around the game:

  • Much could change during the highly anticipated courting process, but George A. King III of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are seen throughout the industry as the favorites to land soon-to-be free agent Shohei Ohtani. The Yankees are in an enviable position when it comes to available pool space, though it’s clear money isn’t Ohtani’s primary concern. Whether Ohtani goes to the Yankees may affect left-hander CC Sabathia’s future with the club, King posits, as they’d have a quintet of capable starters on hand with the newcomer joining Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery. So, while Sabathia wants to re-sign with the Yankees, an answer on his future might not come until at least late December if he waits out the Ohtani derby.
  • If the Mariners bring back free agent righty Hisashi Iwakuma, it’ll likely be on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, Greg Johns of MLB.com suggests. The 36-year-old Iwakuma revealed this week that he’s weighing an offer to re-sign with Seattle, which declined his $10MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout at season’s end, and Johns expects him to accept it.
  • Power is more prevalent than ever in baseball, but the ability to control the strike zone and make quality contract are less common, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet observes. While 117 players racked up 20 or more home runs last season, only 25 hit .300 or better, leading Nicholson-Smith to note that hitting ability may now be the toughest-to-find offensive skill. The piece, which is worth checking out in full, includes quotes from general managers David Forst (Athletics), A.J. Preller (Padres), Neal Huntington (Pirates), Mike Rizzo (Nationals) and Michael Girsch (Cardinals) about the current offensive landscape.

What We Know About The Giancarlo Stanton Situation

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As of Black Friday, the 2017 offseason has been astonishingly quiet. The trade and free agent market seems as though it’s being held up in large part by the situation surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. Once that massive domino falls, it’s possible we’ll see a flurry of free agent activity follow. In the meantime, however, Stanton rumors are a heavy focus of the baseball media cycle, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in an in-depth piece earlier this month, his market is wide and complex. As we approach the weekend, here’s an overview of what we know about the Marlins’ attempt to deal their All-Star outfielder.

He’s the best player available on the market- This may be redundant considering I already mentioned his brand new MVP award, but the subject is well worth its own spotlight. His .281/.376/.631 batting line is other worldly, and his 59 homers paced all of baseball in 2017. While his 6.9 fWAR only tied for fifth among all players in the majors, the rest of the top seven (Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout) won’t be available for teams to acquire in a trade. The top three free agents (Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer) aren’t anywhere near as valuable in terms of expected WAR output as Stanton.

Teams perceive his remaining contract as close to market value- According to these three tweets from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, multiple teams told the Marlins that the remaining 10 years and $295MM left on Stanton’s contract are a pretty good estimate of what he’d earn on the open market, were he a free agent this offseason.

He has a lot of power over his own fate- Not only does Stanton have a full no-trade clause in his contract, but he also has the ability to opt out after the 2020 season, at which point he’d leave 7 years and $218MM on the table in search of a new deal. The opt-out makes trading him even more complicated, as it caps the contract value upside for his would-be new team. Meanwhile, the full no-trade protection gives him enormous leverage in the process. Many teams would love to add Stanton to their lineup, and the Marlins are looking to shed payroll. Ultimately, this means the Fish may not end up being able to accept the best offer, and could have to simply settle for the proposal from the city Stanton wishes to play for most.

The Marlins’ leverage over him is nonzero- While Stanton is a coveted asset and enjoys no-trade protection, he’s made it well-known that he isn’t interested in being around for a rebuild. The slugger’s desire to leave Miami could result in him approving a trade he’s not thrilled about just to play for a contender. On the other hand, it could also result in a tense game of chicken between Stanton and the Marlins to see who will bend first. Although the Marlins have a firm mission to shed payroll, they can do so in other ways; they don’t actually have to trade Stanton at all. And as much as Stanton wants to be traded, he might be willing to hold out for a team of his choice and risk staying put. The case is fascinating.

Some evaluators believe the Marlins’ asking price is unrealistic- While Miami’s asking price isn’t entirely clear, it seems as though they’re looking for a team to pay all (or nearly all) of his salary while including prospects. This has led some to suggest that the Fish need a “reality check” in terms of their asking price. If the contract is indeed roughly market value, then it’s difficult to imagine that a team will give up good prospects for the privilege to pay Stanton his full dollar value over the course of the deal.

He prefers to play near a coast- While this doesn’t seem to be a firm deal breaker, it complicates matters for teams like the Cardinals and Phillies, who have the payroll space and prospect depth to swing a trade for the prolific slugger.

The Cardinals and Giants have made formal offers- The Giants were the first to officially submit a trade proposal, with the Cardinals following suit later that same week. This doesn’t mean the trade discussions are finished; those trades could still be tweaked or even scrapped entirely in favor of starting from scratch. But the fact that there are at least two offers on the table gives the Marlins some options to weigh for the time being. It’s not known what those offers are, however, though we do know that the Cardinals included Sandy Alcantara in their proposal. It’s equally uncertain whether Miami even takes those offers seriously.

As many as eight teams are engaged in talks for him- While only six of those eight teams are thought to be serious pursuers, the fact that so many teams are showing strong interest bodes well for Miami and their power in negotiations. In addition to the Cardinals and Giants mentioned above, we know that the Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox have had some level of dialogue with the Marlins. The Yankees, too, have reportedly done their due diligence, though it doesn’t sound as if they’re actively pursuing Stanton.

 

Aaron Judge Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Breakout Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has undergone arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder, according to a club announcement. Per the announcement, Judge received a “loose-body removal and cartilage clean-up.”

Fortunately for New York, the surgery does not seem to be a major concern for the young outfielder. He is expected to wrap up his rehab in time to participate fully for Spring Training.

Last spring, expectations for Judge were mixed. He had struggled in his MLB debut in 2016 and was not even a sure thing to make the Opening Day roster. But he ended up turning in a monster campaign, taking home Rookie of the Year honors and placing second in the MVP race in the American League.

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