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2017 Opt-Out Clause Update

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It’s been more than a month since we last looked in on the crop of eight players that can opt out of their current contracts and reenter the free-agent market following the 2017 campaign. With more than half the season in the books, a few cases look relatively certain, but there are plenty of questions surrounding several such players…

[Related: 2018 Vesting Options Update]

  • Greg Holland, RP, Rockies: Holland’s $10MM mutual option became a $15MM player option when he finished his 30th game of the season for the Rox a little more than a week ago. His recent brush with wildness is of mild concern, but Holland has a ridiculous 1.48 ERA with 11.9 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 39.7 percent ground-ball rate. In a year when homers are being hit more than ever and he’s tackling Coors Field for the first time, Holland has managed to limit opponents to just one big fly in 30 1/3 innings. So long as his arm holds up for the remainder of the season — no sure thing considering this is his first year back from 2015 Tommy John surgery — he’ll 100 percent turn down that player option in search of a huge multi-year deal. Agent Scott Boras will undoubtedly look to vault Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM pact and could seek a five-year deal.
  • Johnny Cueto, SP, Giants: Cueto is still a workhorse, by today’s standards, as he’s on pace to reach 200 innings for the fourth straight year if he can make 33 starts. He’s logged a 3.97 ERA in eight starts since we last looked at the opt-out crop, though he continues to be abnormally homer prone (though that’s a league-wide trend, as homers are up across the board). Cueto has a 4.26 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.7 40BB/9 and a 40.3 percent ground-ball rate. If he can rediscover his pinpoint control and/or his grounder rate from previous years (1.8 BB/9, 50.2 GB% in 2016), he could make this an easier decision come October. Cueto still ranks third on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman has reported that he’s still planning to opt out of the remaining four years and $84MM on his deal. I think there’s a decent chance he once again hits the open market in search of a five-year deal in the Jordan Zimmermann mold.
  • Welington Castillo, C, Orioles: Castillo’s bat has seen a precipitous decline in effectiveness since our mid-May check-in on opt-out clauses, as he’s batted .205/.250/.349 in 88 plate appearances since that time. He perhaps deserves somewhat of a pass, given the cringe-inducing groin injury he suffered on an ill-placed foul ball deflection that landed him on the DL for 10 days in late May/early June. His overall .272/.307/.439 slash is solid for a catcher, and he’s thrown out a ridiculous 48 percent of opposing stolen base attempts (12-for-25). Framing will probably never be his strong suit, but he’s made some incremental improvements in recent years (though he still grades out below average). With a fairly small one-year, $7MM player option on his deal, it’s certainly plausible that Castillo hits free agency this winter and scores a better payday than that option would afford.
  • Justin Upton, LF, Tigers: I understand the doubt around the possibility of Upton turning away an extra four years and $88.5MM to once again test free agency this winter; he’s 30 years old with questionable defensive value and a strikeout that has soared since his peak year in Arizona. Corner-limited sluggers also fared quite poorly on last year’s market, for the most part. Nonetheless, Upton is having his best offensive season since 2014 and is hitting .267/.351/.500 with 15 homers. Dating back to last year’s All-Star break, he’s slashing .264/.344/.537 with 37 bombs in 575 plate appearances. He’d need a big finish to be confident enough to top four years and $88MM, but that’s the same mark Hanley Ramirez signed for in Boston when he was a year older. If Upton’s camp feels that there’s a chance to approach the $110MM that Yoenis Cespedes received on a four-year pact last winter (again, when he was a year older than Upton), Upton’s reps could elect to search elsewhere. He can’t receive a qualifying offer this time around.
  • Matt Wieters, C, Nationals: Wieters is hitting .205/.224/.328 through 125 plate appearances since the last time we checked in on this group. Overall, he’s batting .244/.293/.384 with a substandard 22 percent caught-stealing rate and the worst framing marks of his career. It’s possible that the one year, $10.5MM player option on his contract is still beatable in a thin market for catching this coming winter, but opting into the deal and remaining with a competitive team is going to look pretty appealing if he can’t get his bat going once again.
  • Masahiro Tanaka, SP, Yankees: Tanaka has picked a poor time to have the worst season of his career, though he’s showing signs of life on the mound. He’s tossed 14 innings with a 14-to-4 K/BB ratio and a huge ground-ball rate in his past two starts and also gone without a home run allowed in that brief stretch. Tanaka is still sitting on a 5.56 ERA with an awful 2.1 HR/9 mark, but he’s averaging 8.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 with a 49.3 percent ground-ball rate. xFIP is much more favorable than his ERA at 3.87, and SIERA agrees with a 3.91 mark. Three of his past four starts have been brilliant, and if he can continue that momentum he could still do better than the three years and $67MM remaining on his contract and hit the open market in search of a larger deal. Age is on his side as well. He’ll turn just 29 this winter.
  • Ian Kennedy, SP, Royals: The 32-year-old Kennedy’s walk and strikeout rates have gone in the wrong direction by a substantial amount this season, and he’s more homer-prone than ever (1.9 HR/9). Starting pitching is almost always in heavy demand on the free-agent market (as Kennedy’s five-year, $70MM deal and opt-out clause illustrate), but he’s sporting a 4.72 ERA with FIP, xFIP and SIERA marks all well north of 5.00. Barring a miraculous turnaround, he’s not topping the remaining three years and $49MM on his deal as a free agent this winter, so expect him to stay in Kansas City.
  • Wei-Yin Chen, SP: Marlins: Chen hasn’t thrown a single pitch since we last checked in on May 22, as he continues to attempt to work his way back from a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. With three years and $52MM remaining on his contract, he’s a lock to forgo his opt-out provision.

Orioles Acquire Matt Wotherspoon, Jason Wheeler

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The Orioles have made a pair of trades, according to a team announcement. They’ve acquired right-hander Matt Wotherspoon from the Yankees and left-hander Jason Wheeler from the Dodgers, surrendering international signing bonus slots for both players. Wotherspoon and Wheeler will report to Triple-A Norfolk.

Trading international money for players is nothing new for the Orioles, who took that route before Sunday to acquire the likes of Damien Magnifico, Paul Fry and Alex Katz earlier this season. Their aversion to spending on the international market has led to criticism from Baseball America’s Ben Badler, who laid into O’s ownership back in April for their “antiquated” approach.

The 25-year-old Wotherspoon has mostly served as a reliever in the minors since the Yankees chose him in the 34th round of the 2014 draft. He debuted at the Triple-A level last season and has been quite effective since, having logged a 2.10 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 34 1/3 innings.

Unlike Wotherspoon, Wheeler comes with major league experience. An eighth-rounder of the Twins in 2011, the 26-year-old made his debut earlier this season with Minnesota. He fared poorly over three innings, though, yielding three earned runs on six hits and four walks, with no strikeouts. The Twins then traded him to the Dodgers on June 2, but Los Angeles designated him for assignment on June 18. Wheeler pitched exclusively with their Triple-A affiliate, recording a 10.38 ERA over 8 2/3 innings. Overall, Wheeler owns a 4.74 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 281 Triple-A frames and 51 appearances (48 starts).

The Dodgers and Yankees both began Sunday, the opening of the 2017-18 international signing period, with $4.75MM available. LA is unable to sign anyone for more than $300K, however, while New York ate into its total by agreeing to deals with Venezuelan outfielder Everson Pereira and shortstop Roberto Chirinos for a combined $2.4MM. The Yankees are also likely to sign Dominican shortstop Ronny Rojas in August for a projected $1.05MM.

AL International Signings: 7/2/17

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Here are some notable American League international signings not yet covered elsewhere on MLB Trade Rumors.  All signing information can be found in these invaluable compilations of the initial flurry of July 2 action from Baseball America’s Ben Badler and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez; the information here is from those sources unless otherwise credited…

  • The Yankees have agreed to sign Venezuelan outfielder Everson Pereira and shortstop Roberto Chirinos.  Pereira will receive a $1.5MM bonus, while Chirinos gets $900K.  The Yankees are also seen as the favorites to sign Dominican shortstop Ronny Rojas, with Sanchez projecting a $1.05MM bonus.  Badler tweets that Rojas isn’t eligible to officially sign until August, when he turns 16 years old.
  • The Blue Jays have reached agreement with Brazilian right-hander Eric Pardinho on a $1.4MM bonus, as well as signing Dominican shortstop Miguel Hiraldo to a $750K deal.
  • The Tigers agreed to sign Venezuelan shortstop Alvaro Gonzalez for a $1MM bonus.
  • The Indians have reached deals with Venezuelan shortstop Aaron Bracho ($1.5MM) and Dominican outfielder George Valera ($1.3MM according to Sanchez, $1.2MM according to Badler).
  • The Angels signed Bahamanian outfielder Trent Deveaux, with Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reporting that Deveaux will receive a $1.2MM bonus.
  • The Mariners have a $1.75MM agreement with Dominican outfielder Julio Rodriguez, as well as a $1.225MM agreement with Venezuelan shortstop Juan Querecuto.
  • The Rangers agreed to nine-figure deals with a trio of prospects.  Venezuelan outfielder Wilderd Patino will receive a $1.3MM bonus, while Venezuelan shortstop Keyber Rodriguez and Mexican right-hander Damian Mendoza each get bonuses worth $1MM.

Yankees Could Be In Mix For Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle

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  • The Athletics are likely to trade relievers Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle, according to Cafardo, who names the Nationals and Yankees as potential suitors. Madson, who’s on a $7.5MM salary both this year and next, has bounced back from a so-so 2016 to post a 2.53 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 1.69 BB/9 and a 53.6 percent ground-ball rate in 32 innings this season. The oft-injured Doolittle has only thrown 16 1/3 frames, but he has been highly effective (3.31 ERA, 12.67 K/9, 1.1 BB/9); what’s more, he’s controllable for reasonable prices through 2020.

    [SOURCE LINK]

C.C. Sabathia To Return Tuesday

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  • Left-hander C.C. Sabathia is on track to return to the Yankees’ rotation Tuesday, per Andrew Marchand of ESPN.com. Sabathia hasn’t pitched since suffering a Grade 2 hamstring strain in mid-June. Before that, the impending free agent helped his stock, not to mention New York’s playoff chances, with a 3.46 ERA and a 49.8 percent ground-ball rate over 75 1/3 frames.

Yankees To Promote Clint Frazier

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The Yankees will promote top outfield prospect Clint Frazier in time for tomorrow’s game. Brendan McGair of the Pawtucket Times first caught wind of the news (Twitter link), with George A. King III of the New York Post reporting on Twitter that Frazier is indeed en route.

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New York has engaged in a flurry of moves involving intriguing young players of late. It had seemed Gleyber Torres might earn a mid-season call-up, but he ended up suffering a season-ending injury. Miguel Andujar had a stellar debut, but was optioned back immediately thereafter. Then, Dustin Fowler came to the Bronx only to suffer a stunning, season-ending injury of his own, leading both to the return of Andujar and this latest promotion.

Now, it’s Frazier’s turn. Like Torres, he came to the Yanks last summer as the team engineered big returns for relief aces Andrew Miller (the deal that brought Frazier) and Aroldis Chapman. While the club will need to wait to see what it has in the elite infield prospect, Frazier is now set to debut.

Expectations were and are quite high for the 22-year-old. Selected with the fifth overall pick of the 2013 draft, he has rated as a consensus top-fifty prospect since his first showing as a professional.

But Frazier had only just cracked Triple-A when he changed organizations — he then moved over to New York’s top affiliate — and success did not come right away. In his 108 plate appearances for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Frazier posted a .228/.278/.396 batting line with thirty strikeouts.

The talent has expressed itself anew in 2017, however. Over 319 plate appearances, again at Triple-A, Frazier carries a .257/.345/.474 slash line with a dozen long balls. He has also restored the plate-discipline numbers hecarried previously in his minor-league career, with a 21.3% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate on the year.

With Aaron Hicks on the 10-day DL and Fowler hitting the shelf for the rest of the season, the Yankees will now get their first look at Frazier at the game’s highest level. An active roster opening will be needed — perhaps leading to another debate over Andujar and beleaguered first baseman Chris Carter. And a 40-man spot will as well, though that can presumably be found by making a 60-day DL placement.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yankees’ Dustin Fowler Injures Knee In MLB Debut, Requires Surgery

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JUNE 30: Manager Joe Girardi told reporters after the game that Fowler’s injury comes with a recovery time of at least six months (via Hoch).

JUNE 29: In terrible news for the Yankees and one of their most promising young talents, the team announced that outfielder Dustin Fowler suffered an open rupture of the patella tendon in his right knee and will undergo surgery tonight in Chicago (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).

Fowler, 22, sustained the injury when running full-speed into the right-field retaining wall in an effort to catch a foul ball off the bat of Jose Abreu in the bottom of the first inning (video available at MLB.com). He was carted off the field shortly thereafter.

Yankees fans have been waiting for months to get a look at Fowler following a terrific start to his season in Triple-A. Through 313 Triple-A plate appearances, Fowler hit .293/.329/.542 with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases. Unfortunately, tonight’s injury occurred before Fowler was even able to take his first big league plate appearance.

Eschewing the baseball perspective and viewing the injury through a human element lens, the injury is a terribly saddening occurrence for a 22-year-old that was merely minutes into realizing a lifelong dream. Hopefully, Fowler proves able to make a full recovery and rejoins the Yankees as a part of their future down the road.

From a strictly on-field perspective, New York has the outfield depth to weather the injury, though they’ll be short-handed for awhile with Aaron Hicks on the shelf for upwards of four weeks and Fowler down for the remainder of the season. The Yankees do have another of baseball’s top outfield prospects, Clint Frazier, not far off from Major League readiness in Triple-A, though it’s not clear when he’ll emerge as a candidate for a promotion of his own.

Yankees Seeking Bullpen Help "Right Now"

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  • The Yankees are looking for bullpen help “right now,” writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman as part of his weekly American League Notes column. The duo of Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances is formidable in the late innings, but the recent struggles of Tyler Clippard and others have GM Brian Cashman on the lookout. Cashman told Heyman that the Yankees aren’t looking for a first baseman at the moment, though recent injury news regarding Tyler Austin and Greg Bird, of course, could change that line of thinking in a hurry.

Yankees Promote Fowler, Select Carter, Designate Williams, Option Andujar

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In a dizzying series of roster moves prior to tonight’s game, the Yankees announced that they’ve selected the contracts of top outfield prospect Dustin Fowler and recently outrighted slugger Chris Carter. To clear spots on the 40-man roster, New York designated Mason Williams for assignment and transferred Greg Bird to the 60-day disabled list. The Yankees also announced that a right hamstring strain has landed Tyler Austin on the 10-day disabled list, while third baseman Miguel Andujar has been optioned back to Triple-A after just one game.

The 22-year-old Fowler ranks just inside the game’s Top 100 prospects, per Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, who have the former 18th-round pick as baseball’s No. 98 overall prospect. Fowler opened the 2017 season in Triple-A and, in his first exposure to that level of pitching, responded with a very strong .293/.329/.542 batting line through his first 70 games. In 313 plate appearances, Fowler has racked up 13 homers, 19 doubles and eight triples to go along with 13 stolen bases.

Callis and Mayo laud the defensive improvements that Fowler has made since signing, noting that he’s gone from a corner-only option to a solid center field defender. They feel his approach at the dish needs some refinement — which is seemingly reflected in his poor 63-to-15 K/BB ratio in those 313 PAs — but note that he makes tons of hard contact and has 20-homer, 20-steal upside in the Majors.

Carter was outrighted off the 40-man just yesterday, but he’ll return to replace the injured Austin as a first base option for the Yankees. Austin has been told that he’s suffered a “high-grade strain” of his hamstring, tweets MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Certainly, that’s an ominous development for the 25-year-old Austin, who looked to have an opportunity to establish himself at first base following Carter’s DFA and Bird’s injury struggles. Austin is headed to Tampa to be examined by a specialist.

Carter signed a one-year deal with the Yankees this winter after what some considered to be a surprising non-tender from the Brewers. Carter led the National League in homers last year, but his huge strikeout totals, lack of OBP and limited defensive value suppressed his price tag to a $3.5MM guarantee on said one-year deal. In 189 plate appearances with New York this season, Carter hit just .204/.286/.383. While he did slug eight homers in that fairly short timeframe, he also struck out in 37 percent of his plate appearances in his first stint with the Yankees.

Williams, 25, has received just 17 plate appearances with the Yanks this season and a total of 68 across the past three seasons, but the once-elite prospect hasn’t delivered at the game’s highest level — or in Triple-A, for that matter. Through those 68 big league PAs, Williams has batted .281/.313/.391, and his cumulative line across parts of three Triple-A campaigns rests at a less-impressive .278/.318/.345 in a much larger sample of 480 PAs.

New York’s 40-man roster is stuffed with outfielders, including Fowler, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks, while top prospect Clint Frazier is also waiting in the wings. As such, there’s no real path to playing time for Williams, whom the Yankees will have seven days to trade or attempt to pass through waivers.

Yankees fans will undoubtedly be frustrated to see Andujar optioned just one day after going 3-for-4 and plating four runs in his Major League debut, but manager Joe Girardi tells reporters that the decision comes down to a simple desire to get Andujar everyday at-bats at third base (Twitter link via Hoch). While some will undoubtedly clamor for Andujar to play over Chase Headley, the veteran Headley has somewhat quietly rebounded from a poor start to hit .303/.415/.395 across his past 95 trips to the plate.

It certainly remains possible that Andujar resurfaces with the Yankees later this summer, and he certainly figures to be back with the club as a September call-up, at the very least, now that he’s on the 40-man roster.

Baseball America’s Josh Norris first reported Fowler’s promotion (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported Williams’ DFA (on Twitter).

Deadline Notes: Red Sox, Giants, Relievers, Torres, Verlander, Cozart, Cabrera

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The Red Sox do not need to stay under the luxury tax line in making their deadline moves, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in an appearance today on WEEI (h/t to Rob Bradford, on Twitter). Recent estimates put Boston about $9MM shy of the threshold, which has added implications under the new CBA since the tax escalates when it is owed in consecutive seasons. While the Sox will no doubt weigh that factor in assessing possible trades, it’s notable that the organization doesn’t feel compelled to stay within those limits. Boston is likely to be involved in the market for third basemen — I looked at possible targets recently — and could also add pitching.

Here’s more …

  • The Giants are clearly in position to deal a few veterans, but it’s not yet known just how significant the moves will be. Signs are, though, that San Francisco is willing to listen to offers on just about any player, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi writes. The Giants are not interested in moving Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and Brandon Crawford, per the report. That could leave some other interesting names available, with Morosi even suggesting that first baseman Brandon Belt could be available. He calls the Angels a potentially “intriguing fit” — though it’s not clear whether there’s any firm interest from Los Angeles — while noting that several other buyers will be looking at a variety of left-handed-hitting first basemen on what seems still to be a wide-open market.
  • Unsurprisingly, interest in relief pitching will be robust at this year’s deadline, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes. Executives suggest that there’ll be a premium on pen arms, as usual, though the expectation remains that none will fetch the kind of immense returns that Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller commanded last year.
  • The Padres have inquired with the Yankees about elite shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. That said, there’s no indication the Yanks have any interest in parting with the talented youngster — even though he is expected to miss the remainder of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That injury doesn’t really change his long-term value, of course, and it’s not altogether clear what Padres players the Yankees might target that could command that kind of trade value. Lefty Brad Hand and former New York infielder Yangervis Solarte may well be of interest, as Heyman notes, but it’s tough to imagine the Yankees parting with such an elite prospect for either or both of them.
  • Heyman also weighs in on veteran Tigers hurler Justin Verlander, who has seen his name begin to come up in trade rumors. At this point, a deal seems less than likely, a source tells Heyman, but there is a real possibility that the righty (and his contract — which promises $56MM over 2018 and 2019) could end up on the move. Three or four teams are said to have participated in exploratory talks on Verlander, per the report, though any deal would require Verlander to waive his no-trade protection.
  • Reds shortstop Zack Cozart, a clear trade candidate with his strong play and expiring contract, tells Heyman that his preference would be to remain in Cincinnati. While he says he understands and accepts that a deal “is more than likely to happen,” Cozart noted that he has informed the front office that he’d be amenable to exploring a long-term contract instead. It’s not terribly surprising, particularly given their internal options, that the Reds haven’t yet made an offer to the 31-year-old.
  • Mets infielder Asdrubal Cabrera is walking back his recent call to be traded after being moved from short to second, as Dan Martin of the New York Post writes. Cabrera explains: “In that moment when I said that, I wasn’t saying I want to get traded. I was just saying it didn’t seem like they had a plan for me. … If they’ve got a plan, they should tell me.” He went on to say that he is “fine with playing second base,” saying that his complaint related more to a lack of communication. In any event, it remains unclear just how much demand there’ll be for the veteran, and also how inclined the Mets are to bring him back next year at a $8.5MM price tag (versus a $2MM buyout).
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