The non-waiver trade deadline is behind us, and about one-third of the regular MLB season remains. The list of top free agents for the 2017-18 offseason is beginning to come into focus. Below, the projected free agents are ranked based on their current earning power. To view the full list of players eligible for free agency after the season, click here.
1. Yu Darvish. The Rangers traded Darvish to the Dodgers right at the July 31st deadline, making him ineligible for a qualifying offer after the season. The Dodgers seemingly added the former strikeout king as a playoff luxury. Darvish began his Dodgers tenure with one of his best starts of the season, a seven-inning gem against the Mets. Darvish’s leap to the best team in baseball grants the pitcher a major pitch framing upgrade, as explained by Chris Anders at Beyond The Box Score. Darvish is around nine starts away from his second career 200-inning campaign, quieting health concerns related to his Tommy John surgery. When he takes the mound next spring, he’ll be three years removed from that procedure. The righty turns 31 soon, so we’re projecting a six-year contract this winter.
2. J.D. Martinez. Martinez, the best hitter in the upcoming free agent class, was traded from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks on July 18th, removing his qualifying offer eligibility. He was hit in the hand by a pitch in his second plate appearance for Arizona, but avoided a serious injury. Martinez has slugged 39 extra base hits in 293 plate appearances, a rate surpassed only by Mike Trout and Nolan Arenado among regular players. However, Martinez’s right field defense continues to diminish his value. With a six-year contract in play for the soon-to-be 30-year-old, his agent may be best suited looking toward the American League.
3. Jake Arrieta. With a strong seven-start run, Arrieta has shaved his ERA down to 3.83. He’s proven durable since his Cy Young breakout in 2015, and he’s only about five months older than Darvish. The two righties have a similar free agent profile: still quite good, but not at peak levels. Our current projection is a five-year deal for Arrieta, who recently laughed off the idea of accepting a one-year qualifying offer. Talking to Bob Nightengale of USA Today this week, Arrieta expressed a lack of concern about his upcoming foray into free agency.
4. Eric Hosmer. Hosmer hit .352/.408/.561 from May through July, boosting his free agent stock immensely. Still, he’s been out-hit this season by impending free agent first basemen Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, and Lucas Duda, so the market features cheaper (but older) alternatives. Plus, Hosmer seems a strong bet to receive a qualifying offer from the Royals, dampening his value a bit. Every free agent class seems to have that one polarizing player, and it might be Hosmer this winter. Is this really a $100MM+ player, or will sabermetrics win the day?
5. Masahiro Tanaka. Speaking of enigmas, Tanaka has a chance to experience free agency in advance of his age-29 campaign. The catch is that he’ll have to opt out of the $67MM the Yankees are obligated to pay him over the 2018-20 seasons. Tanaka has been very good in his last 13 starts (and downright brilliant in his last eight), but it’s difficult to ignore his season mark of 1.87 home runs allowed per nine innings. If Tanaka thinks he can get something close to Jordan Zimmermann’s five-year, $110MM pact, opting out is the correct call.
6. Justin Upton. Upton, too, is facing an opt-out decision. He’s owed four years and $88MM and will turn 30 years old in a few weeks. Upton raked in June and July, and has a shot at a five-year deal. Even if he’s unsure of earning more money on the open market, Upton may like the idea of leaving the rebuilding Tigers to choose his next team. If he does opt out, Upton will be ineligible to receive a second career qualifying offer. On July 30th, Upton told George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press, “I haven’t thought about it, honestly. But I mean, I came here to win, so I’d have to see what the landscape is like at the end of it. I enjoy playing here. I enjoy the guys in the clubhouse. I enjoy the atmosphere, the city. That decision is long down the road, months away.”
7. Mike Moustakas. Moustakas’ home run barrage has continued, leaving the Royals’ third baseman second in the American League with 32 bombs. Barring injury, Moose seems likely to become the first Royal to hit 40 home runs. At his current pace, he’ll wind up closer to 50. Even with a paltry 4.3% walk rate, Moustakas seems like a candidate for a five-year deal heading into his age-29 season, despite a probable qualifying offer.
8. Lorenzo Cain. Cain is quietly on track for his third career season worth at least four wins above replacement. The value isn’t quite as obvious as the position players ranked above him, but capable center fielders with above-average bats are hard to find. We’re projecting Cain to get four years, with a shot at five. Like his teammates on this list, Cain may get a qualifying offer. Under the new CBA, that’s not nearly as limiting as it has been in the past.
9. Wade Davis. The Cubs’ laid-back closer has a career-worst walk rate, but he also has a 2.31 ERA and zero blown saves on the season. Davis will likely have Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM contract in his sights, even if that particular deal doesn’t look so great currently.
10. Greg Holland. Holland leads MLB in saves and has slightly outpitched Davis this year. The Rockies’ stopper has a $15MM player option he’s likely to decline in search of a multiyear deal. Despite missing all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Holland should be a popular free agent.
Johnny Cueto, previously a mainstay on this list, must decide after the season whether to opt out of the $84MM remaining on his contract with the Giants over the next four years. He’s currently on the disabled list with a mild flexor strain, an injury that may be enough to convince Cueto to play it safe and keep his current deal. Also falling off the list is Michael Pineda, who had Tommy John surgery in mid-July and will miss most of the 2018 season.
Players just missing the power rankings top ten include Logan Morrison, Zack Cozart, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Santana. LoMo sits sixth in the AL with 28 home runs. Cozart is tied with Upton for the free agent WAR lead with 3.6, despite a pair of DL stints. Lynn’s strong ERA looks somewhat dubious when stacked up against pedestrian peripheral metrics. Santana, meanwhile, has turned it on lately but is trying to distance himself from a very poor start to the year. Ultimately, these players may be hard-pressed to find four-year deals, though there’s still time left to bolster their stock.
Do you think Moustakas would be willing to go to the braves for a contract like 3yr./$45 million?
No, he would not accept that contract. Why would the Braves want to play Freeman at 3rd for 3 years?
Moustakas plays third base.
But, as Tim spelled out in the post, a five-year deal seems likely for Moustakas at this point. I think you’d need to double your proposed guarantee. to $90MM over a five-year term to get in the ballpark.
I could possibly see the braves going 4/80, but personally that fifth season might be a deal breaker for the Braves. Of course if they went that way the 5th year would only be $10 million to hit your numbers, so who knows.
What will they do with Matt Adams?
Another Panda contract. Seriously, after players opt in or out, he might be the most desired player given the number of years and cost anticipated.
I was thinking Hosmer. Sorry
If Moose takes 3/$45m it would be to stay in KC. His stated **strong** preference is to be buried a Royal, so it will take big money to lure him away. Of the three big FA, I think Moose is the most likely to stay, which I’m happy about but it sucks that 3B is the one spot we have an adequate internal replacement for (Cheslor Cuthbert).
Third basemen make easy transitions to first. I’m sure if Hosmer leaves, they’d slide moose to first and let Cheslor play the hot corner.
I’d like to see him in Atlanta, but I think it would take more than that, unfortunately. I could see Atlanta making a run at a couple of people on this list though.
I would love to see the Astros go get JD Martinez. He has already played LF at MMP and can slide into the DH role after Gattis leaves.
Between Fisher, Springer and Reddick in the Majors plus Tucker in the upper minors and a number of outfield-capable reserves, JDM doesn’t strike me as a top target for the Astros this winter.
The thought being trade prospects for pitching.
The Astros were the ones that gave up on JD and didn’t believe in him and then he went to Detroit and became a stud. I personally would never go somewhere where people didn’t believe in me.
You would if they were world series favorites and offering you a ton of money.
Don’t act so proud. They always knew he had potential, but it is a business. It’s happened to plenty of guys.
A +$120 million contract would likely soothe your bruised ego.
If Otani comes to play in MLB, where does he fit on this list? I could see anywhere between 1-3
One. And likely with a pretty big gap between him and the other people. Unless you mean monies wise, since his contract will be artificially lowered due to the IFA rules in place.
This list is based entirely on contractual earning power (as the intro states), so thanks to the new limitations with which he’d be faced, Otani wouldn’t come near the Top 10.
He’d get an honorable mention of some kind due to his upside, though.
Thanks Steve for being a voice of reason..
If he waits a year and comes without the IFA restrictions he would still not be number one with Machado and Harper being free agents.
He’d be #1 on biggest disappoints too, I’m sure.
Jake Arrieta will likely be heavily involved in that conversation
Dallas Kheuchel since coming back from Injury is hands down #1 on the disappointment list
My best guesses are that Cueto and Tanaka don’t opt out due to injury concerns. If I’m giving out a huge contract, I’d be terrified of both of them blowing up in my face. I also think Homer stays in KC since he’s more valuable there than anywhere else. Other teams know he’s not all that good, but he’s been a big part of Kansas’ recent success, and they might pay him for it.
I think many teams will be turned off Arrieta. A lot more than people expect
But various GMs kept on signing Pierzynski, for example, and guys like Reyes, so whatever “attitude” problem some people have with Arrieta (which I’ve never understood) won’t matter.
Agree about Arrieta’s FA appeal. A common narrative on him is he’s a declining pitcher on the back end of his prime, losing velo, has become increasingly inconsistent, can struggle mentally, and, tbh, isn’t always the most likable guy. Even Cubs fans generally seem lukewarm, at best, on him and not overly eager for him to stay, barring a virtually inconceivable team-friendly deal. There’s a lot to like about him as well (e.g. durability, work ethic, success in big games), and he’s pitching well at the right time. But while his peripherals largely remain above average or better, they’re often viewed from a “glass half empty” perspective.
This offseason, he may find himself playing the long game and eventually signing a “creative” contract, whether it involves opt-outs, vesting or player options, deferred money, or the sort. At this point, a front-loaded 5-yr/~$140M deal with opt-outs could make sense. If he pitched well, he could earn ~$29M/yr for 1-3 years and opt out for a more lucrative AAV prior to the lower-AAV backend years. If his performance declined or he got hurt, however, he’d still have the long-term security of the original deal.
Does Jay Bruce not place ahead of at least Morrison, Lynn and Santana in terms of earning potential?
We’ve kicked Bruce around, but the fact that the Mets have reportedly received little to no trade interest in him makes it difficult to really say we think he’s going to get a four-year deal in the $50-60MM range, which is roughly where the back of the list cuts off right now.
I wouldn’t fight much if you said he belongs in that grouping based solely on his 2016 production, but the tepid trade market for him does raise some questions about how well he can do as a free agent.
I get the logic. But that’s also assuming that Morrison, Lynn and Santana would garner trade interest if they were put on the trading block which I’m not sure would be the case.
Of course Jay Bruce doesn’t place ahead of Morrison, Lynn, an Santana. Cuz he’s the most overrated dude in MLB
I’m hoping J Up opts out of his deal, if for no other reason than to add another interesting bat to the free agent market. I guy like him or JD Martinez would look great in Cardinal red…
I’d rather they not sign Martinez. His lack of defense is the opposite of what they’re trying to change. I’d rather stick with Grichuk in LF than throw all that money at such a defensively limited slugger.
Upton on the other hand is a possibility, but of course he has to opt-out first, which is no guarantee.
I thought Moose would have been a good fit with the Orioles, but with them acquiring Beckham and him playing well, now I am not sure!
I think that If Tanaka ops out the Yanks should let him go and not have to watch him give up all the HR’sl
The only reason Tanaka should opt out is if he has a desire to play elsewhere. The Yankees have learned/won’t bid against themselves and there are too many injury concerns for others to give him more than he presently has coming to him.
5 current and/or ex-Royals on list……
Your wrong purple it’s not 5 current/ex Royals on the list it’s 6! Get it right
Hopefully the Mariners pick up some free agent pitchers this free agency.
Yes, it will probably end up looking like a bad deal but it is necessary if the Mariners actually want to contend
If Tanaka doesn’t opt out, Yanks should try to sign Darvish and then use those two players as a selling point to Otani.
Otani might be more willing to come to a team with two other Japanese pitchers.
Also I’m not a Yanks fan
I think you could easily argue that they should do that regardless of the Tanaka decision.
Most definitely. I think one of the “potential” benefits of Tanaka not opting out could be attracting Otani. It’s a pretty obscure and unlikely benefit but maybe it could be a factor
I hope the Dodgers can hold onto Darvish.
What are the chances that JD is resigned by AZ?
I’d say it’s only possible if they are able to trade Tomas and most, if not all of his contract. JD is another below-average outfielder that will be on the wrong side of 30 when he hits the market. I’d also rather see the DBacks save that money and lock up Goldy and Pollock long term.
Goldy is actually older than JD and Pollovk is only a couple of months younger. I agree with everything else you said, but just because someone is on “the wrong side of 30” doesn’t mean anything.
Sorry for the rant, it’s just a pet peeve of mine
If I were any of the opt-out pitchers I think hard before pulling the trigger. Yes, it’s possible I could add a year or two. But it’s also possible It could be a catastrophic mistake, Wouldn’t surprise me if one of these guys turns the opt-out as leverage to add another guaranteed year with the team they are already playing for.
I’m a Yankee fan and I pray Tanaka leaves .
I love Tanaka but the injury concern makes me hesitant to want him out west in Anaheim. With our park and defense he could thrive but we already have a stable full of injury concerns and another (on a long term deal no less) would be catastrophic.
If the Dodgers win the World Series (and they look like the favorite), Darvish is staying right where he is!
I think its the other way around. Win the world series end the curse of 88 and who cares let him go. If they dont the incentive is higher to keep him
^^^
After the Cubs won the World Series, Theo said that they weren’t going to pursue free agents as aggressively as they would if they had lost.
The Braves won’t sign any of these guys. They will be rumored to meet with Moustakas, and maybe Arrieta, but they won’t be serious contenders for their services.
I believe they might go after Lance Lynn, and that’s a stretch.
I tend to agree. Unless they trade Teheran, but I doubt it.
I think lynn would be a great fit for the braves.
Too early to start a top 50/100 FA Destination Predictions yet?
(not in any real order)
The Players:
1) J, Arrieta (SP)
2) J. D. Martinez (OF)
3) M. Moustakas (3B)
4) E. Hosmer (1B)
5) Yu Darvish (SP)
6) J. Lucroy (C)
7) W. Davis (Closer)
8) J. Bruce (OF)
9) L. Cain (OF)
10) C. Gonzalez (OF)
11) C. Gomez (OF)
12) A. Cobb (SP)
13) A. Reed (RP)
14) T. Frazier (3B)
15) Z. Cozart (SS)
16) M. Cabrera (OF)
17) L. Duda (1B)
18) L. Morrison (1B)
19) C. Santana (1B)
20) E. Nunez (3B)
21) B. Phillips (2B)
22) M. Estrada (SP)
23) J. Lackey (SP)
24) L. Lynn (SP)
25) N. Walker (2B)
26) F. Liriano (SP)
27) J. Hellickson (SP)
28) B. Shaw (RP)
29) P. Neshek (RP)
30) N. Feliz (RP)
31) B. Kintzler (Closer)
32) J. Nicasio (RP)
33) J. Smith (RP)
34) A. Cashner (SP)
35) J. Garcia (SP)
36) U. Jimenez (SP)
37) J. Chacin (SP)
38) M. Holliday (DH)
39) M. Napoli (1B/DH))
40) C. Beltran (DH)
41) B. Revere (OF)
42) C. Maybin (OF)
43) H. Kendrick (2B/LF)
44) M. Moreland (1B)
45) T. Plouffe (3B)
46) N. Hundley (C)
47) J. Reyes (3B/SS)
48) H. Santiago (SP)
49) T. Ross (SP)
50) C. Granderson (OF)
51) S. Smith (OF)
52) D. Holland (SP)
53) C. Young (OF)
54) J. Dyson (OF)
55) R. Davis (OF)
56) D. Valencia (1B/OF)
57) M. Montero (C)
58) J. Werth (OF)
59) A. Ethier (OF)
60) A. Sanchez (SP)
61) T. Chatwood (SP)
62) C. Tillman (SP)
63) M. Pineda (SP)
64) D. Holland (SP)
65) B. Anderson (SP)
66) L. Gregerson (RP)
68) T. Clippard (RP)
69) D. Storen (RP)
70) E. Aybar (SS)
71) T. Cahill (P)
72) S. Cishek (RP)
73) J. Benoit (RP)
74) J, Chavez (P)
75) F. Rodney (closer)
76) J. Axford (RP)
77) J. McGee (RP)
78) S. Romo (RP)
79) J. Gomez (RP)
80) F. Abad (RP)
81) Z. Duke (RP)
82) T. Watson (RP)
83) A. Bastardo (RP)
84) G. Holland (closer)
I would like the Phillies to sign JD Martinez, Arrieta or Darvish / Cobb or Lynn – RPs Reed, Watson and G. Holland.
Oh, come on, Lynn should be on the list over the two closers. Beyond his very good year this year in his first season back from TJS, he has an excellent track record of success and is a little younger than Darvish and Arrieta. He should get at least $80M over 4 years.
An $80MM contract for Lynn would make him only the fourth pitcher in history to sign for more $80MM+ after Tommy John (Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, A.J. Burnett).
I doubt teams will be so cavalier with a $20MM annual value for a pitcher that has completed just one season since the contract.
Lynn is going to be a fairly interesting case this winter. Outside of his ERA, there’s nothing especially impressive about his performance. That’s often been enough to earn a quality contract in the past, but with more and more analytically inclined front offices, a low-3.00s ERA strikes me as a tougher sell.
This year he has diminished strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates, and he’s averaging 5.7 innings per start — as opposed to the 6.2 frames he averaged per start in his 2013-14 peak. His velocity is down as well, and he’s yielding more hard contact and more fly balls than ever before. He may also have a qualifying offer attached to him.
A four-year deal for Lynn is certainly possible — especially with a strong finish. But, the market for mid-level starting pitching last year was tepid at best, and Lynn’s 2017 season isn’t all that different from Jeremy Hellickson’s 2016. You can righly point out that Lynn has a longer track record of success than Hellickson, but that track record was interrupted by Tommy John, which makes it a tougher selling point.
Obviously, the velocity and IP per start should rebound next year like it does for most Tommy John patients in their second year back from the surgery. Likewise, an interrupted track record isn’t a big deal for most pitchers who make it through their first year back from TJS without any setbacks. Leake got $80M over 5 years two off-seasons ago, and Lynn has a much better track record (which includes a 3 year peak from 2013-15, not just 2 years) than he does. Salaries are escalating quickly, and I’d say Lynn is at least as good going forward as Zimmerman and Burnett, anyway.
This yr will be a buyers market and Tanaka, Upton & Cueto should stay put.
The real issue is which teams are willing to spend big $$$ on these players.
The NYY ‘s (maybe $$$ for SP’s) & Phils are waiting for Harper & Machado.
The BoSox will use their $$$ the next 2 yrs to extend Betts, JBJ & Boegarts.
LAD won’t be compelled to sign anyone given their current depth and the $$$ already on the books.
The LAA, Nats, SF, Cleve, Det, Az are maxed out.
Any of these players offered a reasonable extension should take it (even Arrietta). Think about Prado vs. EE, Batista, Napoli et al last yr.
The Braves should simply try to trade with Tigers///////////Pache, I.Anderson,Muller,Demeritte, and Blair for Candelario and Fulmer. Candelario could be another Chipper(switch hitter and all),
Those players for a 24 year-old all star and former Rookie of the Year, come on way more than that is needed. Who would you compare him to age and performance wise in the league right now
If Tanaka opts out the Yankees should thank him for doing them a favor.
It is great to see Tim still writing here. I missed his nice little email article newsletter and was slightly upset he quit.