Gammons: Yanks Inquired On Santana
Peter Gammons reported back on Tuesday that the Yankees have already made a Johan Santana inquiry. The tidbit mentioned a cellphone conversation where apparently a Yankee exec asked who the team would need to part with aside from Chien-Ming Wang to acquire the Twins’ ace.
Makes sense that the Yanks would place a call on this; Santana’s the best pitcher in baseball and they’re the Yankees. And the general vibe seems to be that the Twins are at least listening on Santana. Wang or Cano plus another premium prospect seems a reasonable bounty. The acquiring team may require a negotiating window. And technically, Santana could have the Yankees on his 12-team no trade list.
A-Rod Through 2019?
Could Alex Rodriguez‘s next contract be a twelve-year pact, running through 2019? Scott Boras won’t deny it, as he’s talking about taking his superstar through the end of his career. A 12-year, $380MM deal doesn’t seem out of the question. Has a baseball player ever signed for more than a decade?
Of course, Boras is a master negotiator. So over the coming weeks, he’ll probably casually talk about A-Rod as a $35-40MM player getting 13 years. Unless some team loses its mind entirely, he should settle at 10-11 years and the low $30MM range annually.
Even teams flush with free cash are going to have to wonder whether they should aim for two $15-16MM players instead. Doesn’t it make sense to spread the risk a little bit? You might be able to get a 10 win gain in ’08 from Curt Schilling and Torii Hunter, at a much smaller total commitment.
What if an aging A-Rod settles in as a 6-8 win player, as he was in 2004 and 2006? What if he has to move to first base halfway through the deal? What if he misses one entire season due to injury? What if he’s connected to steroids? Any team entertaining the landmark contract has to consider all of these things.
Random Rumors
Some random rumors to help you get through your Thursday morning…
- As you might imagine, the Rangers are keenly watching and hoping Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract. That would free up $7MM for them in each of the next three years. Rangers’ manager Ron Washington’s wish list includes a center fielder, corner outfielder, and first baseman. The Rangers have been connected to Torii Hunter quite a bit, but they’ll have plenty of competition.
- Will the exchange rate free up a bunch of money for the Blue Jays? Perhaps even enough to make a pass at A-Rod? Hey, fans can dream. Mine!
- Something I didn’t mention yesterday – Elijah Dukes is playing winter ball. The Rays still don’t seem to have any room for him in the outfield or at DH. Maybe the Marlins will get involved again? Would Kevin Gregg work?
- Gordon Wittenmyer thinks the Cubs should keep Jacque Jones for 2008, which makes sense. Wittenmyer also believes 22 year-old Felix Pie with 194 big league plate appearances, has proven conclusively that he can’t hit Major League pitching. His suggestion is to trade Pie now.
- Larry Borowsky wants the Cardinals to sign Milton Bradley.
- Jeff Sackmann recommends against Geoff Jenkins‘ $9MM option for ’08, but the decision was tougher than you think.
Torre’s Status Will Influence Rivera
Mariano Rivera isn’t a sure thing to return to the Yankees in 2008. He’s not happy about Joe Torre’s unknown status, and he doesn’t seem thrilled that the Yanks passed on their opportunity to re-sign him earlier this year.
Jon Heyman’s best guess yesterday: the Yanks re-sign Rivera for two years and $26MM, plus an option year for 2010. That seems fairly reasonable to me; it’s still hard to picture a closer earning more than $13MM. But Rivera may listen to offers, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see a team offer him three years guaranteed.
One stopper who could average such a salary in his next deal is Joe Nathan. Nathan will be well underpaid at $6MM next year; he’s arguably the game’s best closer. From 2004-07, Nathan has a 1.94 ERA and 11.3 K/9 in 282.3 innings. He’s also got 160 saves over that four-year span. If given an extension window, would the Yankees part with a Robinson Cano this winter to get Nathan?
Catcher Salaries
Dan Graziano noted in his column today that Ivan Rodriguez may have set the market for Jorge Posada when his option was exercised. Posada was the game’s second-highest paid catcher in 2007, with his $12MM salary behind only Jason Kendall‘s $13MM. Posada is coming off a .338/.426/.543 season, so he’s going to break the bank. Some team is probably going to offer $15MM per year over four years.
Now that Pudge is locked in at $13MM for ’08, he’s jumped to that top of the list. Behind him, Jason Varitek makes $9MM and Ramon Hernandez earns $7.5MM next year. Ramon Castro should prepare for a huge raise – he made $850K in ’07 but could be around $4MM in ’08.
Many catchers will definitely have to take a pay cut. Kendall won’t get $13MM again, of course. Paul Lo Duca probably won’t pull $6.25MM. Jason LaRue will come down from this year’s $5.2MM. Michael Barrett at $4.6MM? Probably not. Brad Ausmus at $3.5MM? No way.
If you’re interested, Download catcher_salaries.xls. It’s an Excel spreadsheet with all the 2007 and 2008 catcher salaries.
Time To Talk A-Rod
Alex Rodriguez has exactly one month to decide whether to opt out of his contract. This is going to be a hot topic for the next thirty days, and of course the top offseason story if he does opt out. Let’s sum up the latest. The info comes from six similar articles, which I’ll just link to at the bottom.
- Any major event deserves an acronym, and Scott Boras has coined one for Alex Rodriguez as he heads toward free agency. Boras’ term is IPN – Icon, Performance, Network. In other words, A-Rod is famous, he’s an awesome hitter, and he boosts the Yankees’ TV revenue. We needed a new acronym for that?
- Reminder: Texas is on the hook for $21.3MM of the $91MM owed to Rodriguez for the 2008-10 seasons. This obligation disappears if he opts out.
- Brian Cashman again said that not negotiating with A-Rod if he opts out would be his "strong recommendation," but hinted that others have a say in the decision (read: The Boss). This is the first public crack in Cashman’s stance.
- Boras will obviously push hard for Rodriguez to opt out and sign a landmark free agent deal.
- We’ve seen the ten-year, $300MM estimate thrown around quite a bit. Mike Lupica of the New York Daily News ups the ante, suggesting Boras could find a team to pay $400MM over eleven years. Screw it – someone should just pay him one billion dollars over 29 years and get it over with.
References: Newark Star-Ledger, New York Times, Hartford Courant, New York Post, Newsday, New York Daily News
Odds and Ends: Aramis, La Russa, A-Rod
A random smattering of links this morning…
- I wrote a postmortem on why the D’Backs beat the Cubs over at The Hardball Times.
- Just a whisper at the moment, but I’m hearing that the Angels could pursue Aramis Ramirez if the Cubs make him available. They were in hard on him last year when he was briefly a free agent.
- Seems that Joe Torre is done as Yankees manager, but Tony La Russa is not interested.
- Another important date to mark down: November 10th. That’s when Alex Rodriguez decides whether to opt out of his contract. Right after the GM meetings.
- The Tigers will stick with Brandon Inge at third base next year, perhaps feeling that his defense justified his .236/.312/.376 line. There is hope for a rebound, since he slugged .463 the previous year. Plus Inge is locked in for $6.2MM in ’08, $6.3MM in ’09, and $6.6MM in ’10.
- The Mariners had a $2.7MM option on Chris Reitsma with a $0.7MM buyout and apparently some kind of option on Arthur Rhodes. Both were declined. Reitsma, coming off ulnar nerve transposition surgery in ’06, was supposed to be Seattle’s setup man. He tried to pitch this year but the elbow wasn’t fully healed. Rhodes had similar problems in ’06 and went under the knife for TJ in April.
- You may have noticed some of the in-post ads are showing as ugly blank white space or "This page cannot be found" errors…please bear with me as I try to get it back to normal.
Sunday Morning Santana
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the names being thrown around for Johan Santana. As well as the Kemp/Kershaw for Santana, Cafardo quotes an AL Executive:
One AL executive theorized, "There are a few teams who could match up with the Twins. Would the Yankees deal Melky Cabrera and an Ian Kennedy for Santana? How about Boston? Would they send a Clay Buchholz and a Jacoby Ellsbury for him? The Mets? There are few teams who could handle the paycheck you’d have to give Santana and also be able to part with key prospects."
If that logic is correct, it narrows the list of suitors considerably.
MLBTR readers made the astute point in the Kemp/Kershaw comments that if a team is going to give up two Major League-ready prospects, the deal would be contingent on a re-signing of Santana. A one year rental is most likely not going to appeal to any GM handing over otherwise untouchable commodities such as a Buchholz/Ellsbury or a Kennedy/Cabrera or a Kemp/Kershaw.
Which teams, therefore, can afford the likes of baseball’s best starting pitcher?
Here’s an intriguing twist. As most already know, it’s safe to assume Santana will not finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this year and therefore will not be gaining his no-trade clause for 2008. However, he still gets to choose up to 12 teams to which he can’t be traded. If for some reason he didn’t want to leave the Twins next season, could he strategically choose every team capable of dealing for him?
Despite not having a no-trade clause, it’s safe to note Santana will have considerable say in any deal.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
Joba The Starter?
It’s been a slow Saturday in the rumor mill so as it grinds down, I thought I’d see where everyone would put Joba Chamberlain next season if you were the Yankees.
Experts and statisticians feel that Joba must be in the rotation because 180 innings of Joba next year is more valuable than around 60. Frank Neville for The Sporting News thinks "health permitting, [Joba] can be a 20-game winner and rack up 200-plus strikeouts a year." Now wait, where have we heard that argument before? Ah yes, with Jonathan Papelbon.
Papelbon has become the most dominant closer in the majors with a 13.3 k/9 and I wonder if everyone still feels that 180-200 "starter" innings are as valuable to the Sox as his 56.1 "closer" innings have been. Nobody seems to be suggesting otherwise! Most if not all projections have Papelbon slated to close in ’08, not start, and they’re probably right. With the emergence of Clay Buchholz, the Sox have remained mum. And fans/reporters don’t seem to bring it up as if Papelbon might overhear and remember that he actually once wanted to start. Well that story has come full circle and Paps wants to close now. Chamberlain, meanwhile, seems to be running the same hamster wheel with one major difference: the Yankees actually have a closer.
It’s an interesting conundrum. In a way, Mariano Rivera is the reason to put him in the rotation while on the other hand Mariano Rivera is the reason to continue his development in relief. The presence of Rivera provides reasoning to both keep him in the bullpen to be his successor or move him out because, hey, they already have Rivera. There’s an obvious divide in thought here.
I’m of the belief that if Todd Jones can close, Rivera is not done. Therefore Rivera, Luis Vizcaino, and Edwar Ramirez (in due time) plus one or two more effective relievers (and specialists, etc) would be solid for 2008. And I think everyone would be impressed by a sudden rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba the Starter.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
Rumors and Questions
If Cubs make the playoffs, they will be glad not to see the Marlins in the postseason. After last night’s defeat, the Cubs haven’t beaten the Fish since April… of 2006.
Lots of buzz today, so here are some Rumors and Questions on the day:
- Florida Marlins Fans, it may be disheartening for you, both of you, to know that David Hyde (with some help from Bill Murray) believes as though either Miguel Cabrera or Dontrelle Willis will indeed be dealt this offseason. Tim crunched the numbers and thinks they should shed Willis’ contract. If I had to choose, I’d agree with Mr. Hyde (not Dr. Jekyll) and wave goodbye to Miggy before the D-Train rolls out. Cabrera is indisputably elite and could net a Hanley Ramirez or two. Meanwhile, Dontrelle’s value is at an all time low. Who would you deal?
- Speaking of former Marlins, Buster Olney thinks the Tigers will re-sign Todd Jones. When asked who will close for the Tigers next year, Manager Jim Leyland responded with a definitive "don’t know". Well, maybe he’s getting forgetful in his old age, but we all know who: Joel Zumaya. But is he ready? Chris McKosky of the Detroit News isn’t sure. What do you think? If only he could lay off that Guitar Hero…
- The Rangers and the Twins have each expressed interest in both Torii Hunter and, who else, Barry Bonds. Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire weighs in positively on Bonds, while Joe Christensen says chances are slim but don’t rule it out. Shooter Charley Walters says the Twins will try to re-sign Hunter. But Hunter is from outside Arlington, Texas and when asked if he’s thought a little about going home, he told reporters "I haven’t thought about it a little bit. I’ve thought about it a lot a bit." Meanwhile, the Rangers players say "Thumbs up!" to Bonds. I think the Rangers are a natural fit for both of these vets.
- Also, Ken Rosenthal’s latest video on Foxsports.com breaks down the fates of Managers-Across-The-League. Interestingly, he begins by praising Joe Torre for doing maybe his best job ever, and then notes how if the Yankees stumble in the postseason he might not be back…
Posted by: Nat Boyle