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Dodgers Sign Michael Conforto

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December 10: The Dodgers officially announced Conforto’s signing today.

December 8: The Dodgers signed a left-handed hitting outfielder represented by Scott Boras tonight.  No, not that one.  Shortly before the Mets signed Juan Soto to a seismic contract, the Dodgers agreed to a deal with Michael Conforto, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Conforto’s deal with L.A. is a one-year pact worth $17MM, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reports the deal includes deferred money and an $8.5MM signing bonus.

Conforto, 32 in March, was selected by the Mets tenth overall in the 2014 draft and emerged as an impact bat for the club early in his career. In his first six seasons as a big leaguer, Conforto slashed an incredible .259/.358/.484 with a wRC+ of 128. Conforto made an All-Star appearance, slugged 118 homers in 632 games, and established himself as one of the best young offensive players in the NL.

Unfortunately, however, Conforto was dogged by shoulder issues early in his career that came to a head following a down 2021 season (104 wRC+). Conforto declined the Qualifying Offer and entered free agency in line for a solid payday, but required surgery during the 2021-22 lockout and ultimately did not sign a contract for the 2022 season while he recuperated.

Despite missing the entire 2022 season, Conforto inked a strong two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants, one of eight contracts by former GM Farhan Zaidi that included an opt-out.  After posting a league average 99 wRC+ in his first year with the Giants, Conforto chose not to opt out of the $18MM he was owed for 2024.

Conforto improved to a 112 wRC+ in 2024, including a 137 surge over the season’s final two months.  He showed a reverse platoon split, beating up on lefties more so than righties.  He also managed a 133 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, a place known to suppress offense.

Over the two years Conforto has been a Giant, Oracle Park has been the second-worst park in baseball for offense, ahead of only T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is right around league average as the 17th best park in the majors for offense.

While the Dodgers are surely hoping that Conforto unlocks something closer to the form he showed throughout his 20s in New York with them this year, even the 105 wRC+ he’s offered over the past three seasons would help to bolster the club’s lackluster outfield mix. Dodgers outfielders combined for a wRC+ of just 101 last year, a figure that is drastically improved by contributions from Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts. Hernandez is currently a free agent, however, and while Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers remain in on him even after signing Conforto, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be in a Dodgers uniform in 2025. With Betts ticketed for an infield role next season, that left the Dodgers with a projected outfield of Tommy Edman, James Outman, and Andy Pages for next season. Pages’s 100 wRC+ led that trio in 2024, and even a relatively mediocre season for Conforto would be a massive upgrade over Outman’s ghastly 54 wRC+ in 53 games last year.

With the addition of Conforto, RosterResource projects the Dodgers for a $326MM payroll in 2025 that perfectly matches their 2024 payroll, though that projection does not factor in deferred money. Regardless, that’s not expected to prevent president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his front office from spending this winter. Every indication has been that the Dodgers are willing and able to increase their payroll well beyond last year’s figure in order to land the right players, which is surely a relief for fans given the number of holes that remain on the roster. The Dodgers could use additional bullpen help even after reuniting with Blake Treinen earlier this evening, would benefit from either re-signing Hernandez or adding another bat to their lineup, and at minimum they appear likely to reunite with Clayton Kershaw to bolster their rotation even after landing Blake Snell last month.

Dodgers Sign Blake Treinen

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December 10: Treinen’s signing has now been officially announced by the Dodgers, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link).

December 9: Per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link), Treinen will get a $5MM signing bonus and there no deferrals on the deal.

December 8: The Dodgers are in agreement with right-hander Blake Treinen on a two-year deal worth $22MM, according to a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2.  It’s the largest deal for a reliever going into his age-37 or later season since the Yankees signed Mariano Rivera in 2010.  Treinen is represented by Apex Baseball.

Treinen, 36, was the Dodgers’ highest-leverage reliever this year.  Despite his fastball slipping nearly three miles per hour, he posted excellent marks with a 1.93 ERA, 30.4 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 44.7% groundball rate in 46 2/3 innings.  Treinen has been with the Dodgers since signing a one-year, $10MM deal five years ago after the A’s non-tendered him.

Treinen has worked 149 2/3 regular season innings for the Dodgers from 2020-24, adding another 33 1/3 across four different postseasons.  He remained the go-to reliever for Dodgers manager Dave Roberts in tough spots as the club climbed through the postseason to win a championship.  He made nine appearances this postseason, getting more than three outs in five of them.  Treinen was the winning pitcher in the decisive Game 5 of the World Series against the Yankees, stepping up with 2 1/3 scoreless innings.

Drafted in the seventh round by the A’s out of South Dakota State University in 2011, Treinen was shipped to the Nationals in January 2013 as part of a three-team deal that brought the Mariners Mike Morse.  Somewhat of an afterthought in that deal, Treinen worked his way up to a high-leverage role in the Nationals’ bullpen by 2016.  Treinen had a rough first half in 2017, and A’s GM Billy Beane made sure to reacquire the hard-throwing pitcher he’d drafted six years prior.  The A’s sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nats in that deal, bringing back Jesus Luzardo, Treinen, and Sheldon Neuse.

The trade back to Oakland proved a turning point in Treinen’s career, as he blossomed into one of the game’s best relievers. In fact, Treinen’s 0.78 ERA in 2018 stands as the lowest mark in MLB history for a pitcher with at least 80 innings.  The combination of a temporary setback in 2019 (perhaps related to a back injury) and Treinen’s rising arbitration salaries led to the aforementioned non-tender, however.

Though Treinen had some struggles in the shortened 2020 season, he remained healthy and even picked up a save in Game 5 on the way to his first ring.  The Dodgers re-upped him for two years and $17.5MM with a club option for a third year.  He posted a superb 2021 season, but the following two years would be plagued by injuries.

Treinen was limited to a mere five regular season innings from 2022-23, due to a shoulder injury that culminated in November 2022 labrum and rotator cuff surgery.  The Dodgers had previously secured a 2024 option that increased based on innings pitched, allowing them to retain Treinen for just $1MM this year.  He made his season debut in May due a bruised lung, hitting the IL again in August with hip discomfort.

Given that the Mets intend to use Clay Holmes as a starting pitcher, the Treinen deal is just the second significant relief contract of the offseason, after the Red Sox signed Aroldis Chapman five days prior.  Treinen will again slot into the late innings for the Dodgers alongside fellow righties Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech.

The Dodgers made a pair of notable signings Sunday evening, re-signing Treinen shortly after adding outfielder Michael Conforto on a one-year deal.  The spotlight as we head into the Winter Meetings in Dallas, however, was on the Mets’ record-shattering 15-year, $765MM deal with Juan Soto.  The Dodgers were in the mix for Soto, but never seemed to be the favorite.  The Dodgers did make a splash already this winter by signing Blake Snell to a five-year, $182MM deal with deferrals.

With the additions of Snell, Conforto, and Treinen and an extension for Tommy Edman, RosterResource pegs the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax payroll at about $332MM, in a year where the fourth tax bracket sits at $301MM.  Given that the Dodgers already exceeded that mark by signing Snell, adding Conforto and Treinen will in effect cost the Dodgers $58.8MM this year, given the club’s 110% tax bracket.

Marlins Fielding Interest In Jesus Luzardo

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The Marlins are getting calls on starter Jesús Luzardo, reports Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (X link). Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic write that the Fish are willing to entertain trade talks on the talented southpaw.

On the one hand, a team in a full rebuild like Miami is going to be open to discussing essentially every veteran player. Luzardo is a tough trade candidate, though, as the Marlins are shopping him while his value is at a low point. His ’24 campaign was more or less decimated by injury. Luzardo went on the injured list in the middle of April with elbow inflammation. He returned in May but was shelved again five weeks later by back issues. That not only took him off the table as a deadline trade candidate, it ended his season. Luzardo was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his lower back and couldn’t return to the mound.

Neither injury required surgery and Luzardo was able to begin non-throwing baseball activities by the end of the regular season. There’s no indication he won’t be full go for Spring Training. Still, there’s little doubt that acquiring teams are going to account for the injury risk as they weigh what to offer Miami.

Luzardo has spent a lot of time on the IL over his career. He fractured his throwing hand in 2021 and lost a good portion of the ’22 season to a forearm strain. He also has a Tommy John surgery on his medical chart dating back to high school in 2016. He has only topped 100 1/3 innings in an MLB season once.

That lone healthy campaign offered tantalizing upside. Luzardo took a full 32 turns through the rotation in 2023. He fired 178 2/3 frames of 3.58 ERA ball while punching out 28.1% of opposing hitters. He averaged nearly 97 MPH on his fastball, missed bats with both his slider and changeup, and limited his walks to a solid 7.4% clip.

That version of Luzardo was a #2 or high-end #3 starter, the kind of pitcher a team would happily plug into their playoff rotation. Luzardo didn’t show that form last year even when he was able to take the mound. He allowed five earned runs per nine with a diminished 21.2% strikeout rate in 66 2/3 frames. He still posted plus whiff rates on his secondary pitches, but his average fastball velocity dipped to 95.2 MPH and opponents teed off on it.

There’s obvious appeal for contenders to attempt to buy low. Luzardo is under arbitration control for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $6MM salary. That’s a bargain in comparison to a free agent market where a rebound candidate like Frankie Montas signed for $17MM annually and mid-rotation arms Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino landed more than $20MM per season on three-year deals.

Miami doesn’t have as much urgency to make a sell-low trade. Luzardo won’t make the difference between them contending for a postseason spot or not, but a strong first half could rehabilitate his value. If he demonstrates his 2023 form for three months, Luzardo would arguably be the biggest trade chip of the ’25 deadline. In the best case scenario, Miami could realistically seek multiple Top 100 type prospects next summer. If he struggles or suffers another significant injury, of course, whatever trade value he currently has would basically evaporate.

It’s largely a matter of risk tolerance for president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and his staff. The Fish have very little on the books for next season, so they’re not under any financial pressure to move Luzardo. He’ll be the highest-paid member of their otherwise modest arbitration class. They’re still on the hook for $17MM (including an option buyout) to released outfielder Avisaíl García. The only other player on a guaranteed deal is ace Sandy Alcantara, who’ll make $17MM next year. The Marlins reportedly informed Alcantara in August that they had no intention of trading him this offseason.

Yankees, Mets Among Top Suitors For Garrett Crochet

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One day after the Mets and Yankees finished battling for the top free agent, they’re in the competition for arguably the winter’s #1 trade candidate. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic report that the New York teams are currently the most aggressive suitors for White Sox’s lefty Garrett Crochet.

The Athletic writes that the Red Sox and Phillies have also expressed interest, but they appear to be behind the New York teams for the moment. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network put the Brewers on Crochet this morning, though The Athletic report does not mention Milwaukee. Rosenthal and Sammon indicate that no team is close to pulling off a deal yet.

Crochet stayed healthy in his first full season as a starter. The Sox pulled back his workload after failing to line up a deadline trade. Chicago never shut him down or skipped his turns through the rotation, but they abbreviated his starts at the end of the year. Crochet finished the season with 146 innings across 32 appearances. He turned in dominant rate stats, striking out 35.1% of batters faced against an excellent 5.5% walk rate. His 3.58 earned run average didn’t quite align with those fantastic peripherals. That’s at least in part because he was pitching in front of one of the game’s worst defensive teams, contributing to an elevated .318 average on balls in play against him.

Going into 2025, Crochet projects as a top-of-the-rotation arm. He shouldn’t have as many concerns about his workload down the stretch. His deadline trade candidacy was also complicated by the late revelation that he was seeking a contract extension if he’d be asked to pitch into the postseason during his first season as a starter. That’s no longer an obstacle.

Chicago GM Chris Getz spoke in generalities about a potential Crochet trade. He repeated the organization’s preference to add young hitting talent but suggested they weren’t opposed to building around pitching if they felt it was the best offer (X link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Getz reiterated that he didn’t feel compelled to make a trade this offseason, though it’d be a major surprise if Crochet were still in a White Sox uniform by the end of March.

Of the New York teams, the Mets have more talent at the top of the farm system. Their system is headlined by shortstop Jett Williams. Baseball America ranks 19-year-old infielder Jesus Baez as the #3 prospect in the organization. Ronny Mauricio is a former top prospect who might’ve opened the season as New York’s third baseman had he not torn his ACL in winter ball last year. Third baseman Brett Baty has seen his stock dip as he’s underperformed against MLB pitching, but he’s drawing attention as a change of scenery candidate. While Baty no longer has the pull to headline a Crochet package, he could be of interest as a secondary piece. (The Sox built their deadline return for Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech around Miguel Vargas, another post-hype infielder.)

The Yankees’ system is headlined by Jasson Domínguez. There’s a sharp drop thereafter, however. It’d be a surprise if the Yanks were willing to put Domínguez in a Crochet package. The switch-hitter may well be New York’s starting center fielder next year, with Aaron Judge potentially kicking to right field after Juan Soto walked. Outfielder Spencer Jones and infielders George Lombard Jr. and Roderick Arias were once viewed as Top 100 type talents, but they’re all coming off somewhat alarming minor league seasons. Jones and Arias struck out at huge rates, while Lombard didn’t hit for much power in A-ball.

Crochet is controllable for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a bargain $2.9MM salary. Even for the New York franchises, the affordability is appealing. The Yankees could prefer to attack the lineup in free agency rather than make a top-of-the-market splash for starting pitching. The Mets still need a top-of-the-rotation starter. They’ve thus far shied away from making that kind of move in free agency, instead building the rotation with upside plays for Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas.

Mozeliak: “It’s My Intention To Try” For Arenado Trade

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8:06pm: At least a trio of “mid-market” teams have reached out to the Cardinals about Arenado’s availability, writes Katie Woo of the Athletic. She adds that the Yankees do indeed have interest in the star third baseman, though it’s not known if Arenado would waive his no-trade rights to go to the Bronx.

6:17pm: Nolan Arenado’s name has been floated as a natural trade candidate since the Cardinals are trying to reduce payroll to some extent, and perhaps aren’t making a full-fledged run at contention.  Despite the many obstacles involved in moving Arenado, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak outright stated “It’s my intention to try” to move Arenado this season when speaking today with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (links to X), Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and other reporters.  A trade could come relatively soon, within the next 7-10 days but probably not during the Winter Meetings.

It is rare to see any executive be so forthcoming in discussing a player’s trade availability, particularly a player who is still under contract for the next three seasons.  However, even as Mozeliak recently walked back the idea of 2025 as a pure rebuilding year for the Cardinals, it seems as though the team would like to open up the third base spot for younger players, in addition to getting some of Arenado’s salary off the books.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, so he ultimately has the final say over where he plays in 2025 and beyond.  The fact that Mozeliak feels a trade is relatively close would imply that Arenado has already provisionally agreed to a deal to a particular team or to a few teams, so now the Cardinals are sorting through the best offers from this team or teams.  It is already known that Arenado is even willing to move off third base if that’s a better roster fit for a particular club, though it would seem unusual for the 10-time Gold Glover to move away from his accustomed position.

Beyond the no-trade protection, Arenado is owed $74MM over the three remaining years of his contract, though $10MM of that figure is covered by the Rockies as per the terms of the trade that sent Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis during the 2020-21 offseason.  The Cards could attempt to take on another unfavorable contract as salary offset, though that wouldn’t much help the club’s bigger-picture plans.

Finding a trade partner to absorb all of that $64MM would be easier if Arenado was still in his prime All-Star form, though his numbers have fallen off in the last two seasons.  Arenado has hit .269/.320/.426 with 42 home runs in 1247 plate appearances since Opening Day 2023, which is still above average (104 wRC+) production, yet not at his past standard.  His Isolated Power metric plummeted to .123 in 2024, the lowest of his career and drastically below his .241 average in the previous 11 seasons.

Position change notwithstanding, Arenado’s market could be helped by the fact that the pickings are a little slim for teams looking for third base help this winter.  Alex Bregman is easily the best option available in free agency, and the Phillies’ Alec Bohm might be the top third baseman available on the trade front.  If a club feels a change of scenery can produce a bounce-back year for Arenado, a trade might be possible, provided that Arenado is equally enthusiastic about this new location to okay a deal.  Reports indicate that the Yankees are one team that has been approached by the Cardinals about Arenado, though New York’s level of interest isn’t known.

Speaking of Cardinals players with no-trade protection, Miles Mikolas told Goold that he would prefer to stay in St. Louis for the final year of his contract.  Mikolas is owed $16MM in 2025, and finding a taker at that full price could be tricky anyway since Mikolas struggled to a 5.35 ERA over 171 2/3 innings last season.  While the 36-year-old still brings plenty of durability, the Cards might prefer such an innings-eater in their own rotation, since the team has already parted ways with Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.

Astros Not Ruling Out Potential Trades of Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez

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6:35pm: In a full column at The Athletic, Rome writes that the Astros have unsurprisingly received calls on Tucker. He indicates that none of those discussions have become serious but reports that Brown is indeed willing to consider moving one of the two players if the right opportunity presents itself.

6:20pm: Astros general manager Dana Brown met with reporters this evening at the Winter Meetings. In addition to reiterating their longstanding desire to re-sign Alex Bregman, Brown left the door at least slightly open to trading one of his star players.

In response to a question about the team’s willingness to field interest in Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, Brown replied he “would listen on all the players” (X link with video via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). It doesn’t seem they’re actively shopping either, however.

“We’ll listen on anybody. We’re not trying to aggressively move anybody out the door… If it doesn’t make sense, we wouldn’t do it,” Brown expanded (relayed on X by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). “So it really would have to make sense. Because right now we’re a good team and we’re not motivated to move any of these guys.”

An open-mindedness to conversation isn’t a declaration that either player is on the block. It still seems likelier than not that both will begin next season in Houston. That said, there’s at least a little bit of chatter about the possibility of the Astros pulling off a blockbuster. Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the idea last week, pointing out that it’d open a fair amount of immediate payroll space while helping to replenish a poor farm system. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that there’s “some buzz” around the Meetings regarding the potential for a Tucker trade, in particular.

Both players would net a strong return. They’re each down to their final year of arbitration but are among the best in baseball at their respective positions. Tucker, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for a $15.8MM salary, hit 23 home runs in only 78 games this year. He slashed .289/.408/.585 across 339 plate appearances. A nagging right leg injury cost him a few months, but Tucker’s rate production was the best of his career. He’s one of the game’s five to 10 best hitters and trending towards a free agent deal that could push near $400MM.

There’s little to suggest the Astros are going to make a push to sign Tucker to that kind of contract. Even if they expect him to walk in 12 months, a trade would be a tough sell. Houston is trying to win another AL West title. They wouldn’t come close to replacing Tucker’s production if they move him. They’re already thin in the outfield, where Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are the other projected starters. Yordan Alvarez could see time in left field, but manager Joe Espada said today the Astros were hoping to scale back his outfield work to give him more reps at designated hitter (X link via Rome).

Valdez probably wouldn’t bring quite the same return as Tucker. He’d arguably be easier to replace, though the Astros would be placing a lot of faith in injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. to do so. The southpaw is coming off a 2.91 ERA showing through 176 2/3 innings. Valdez has topped 175 frames in three straight years. He hasn’t allowed an ERA above 3.45 in any of those seasons. While his strikeout rates are more good than great, Valdez posts elite ground-ball numbers.

Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary in his final arbitration year. That’s a notable sum but still well below what he’d make for one season if he were a free agent. (Frankie Montas just signed for $17MM annually over two seasons, for example.) Valdez is going into his age-31 season and could be limited to a five-year free agent contract, but he’s on track for a deal that lands well north of $100MM. The Astros have a better chance of re-signing him than they do of keeping Tucker, but neither player seems especially likely to remain in Houston after next season.

Phillies Sign Jordan Romano

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The Phillies finalized a one-year contract with reliever Jordan Romano, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed at the Winter Meetings. The longtime Blue Jays righty is reportedly guaranteed $8.5MM and would receive another $500K if he pitches 60 innings next season. Romano is represented by VC Sports Group.

The Phils are making a bet on a bounceback. Romano, 32 in February, just finished a frustrating and injury-marred season with the Blue Jays but was their closer for three years prior to that. The righty saved 95 games for the Jays from 2021 to 2023, tossing 186 innings with a 2.37 earned run average. He struck out 30.3% of batters faced in that time while giving out walks at a 9.2% clip and getting grounders on 42.3% of balls in play.

But 2024 was mostly a lost season for him. He started the season on the injured list due to some right elbow inflammation and never seemed to be fully healthy. He went on and off the IL throughout the year, making just 15 appearances with a 6.59 ERA. His 21% strikeout rate in that small sample was not only below his previous work but also below league average.

He underwent arthroscopic surgery on the elbow in July and was given an estimated six-week shutdown time frame. The Jays were hoping to get Romano back on the mound before the season was up but that didn’t come to pass. His last major league appearance was May 29.

The Jays could have retained Romano for one more season via arbitration. Salaries almost never go down via the arb system, so MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the righty for the same $7.75MM salary he made in 2024. The Jays apparently weren’t willing to fork over that kind of cash for the chance to find out if Romano could get over his lost season, as he was not tendered a contract for 2025. Last week, general manager Ross Atkins said that he expected Romano to be healthy and hoped to re-sign him, but presumably at a lower price point. Instead, Romano will get a fresh start with a new organization and get a slight pay bump.

The Philadelphia bullpen has been shuffled quite a bit in recent months. They traded away Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto at the trade deadline, then lost Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez to free agency at season’s end. They still have some good arms back there, including Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm, but they’ve naturally been looking for bullpen upgrades this winter.

Opting for Romano also makes sense for financial reasons. The Phils have spent a lot of money on their roster in recent years, both via free agency and extensions of incumbent players. That has led to them paying the competitive balance tax three years in a row now. Going into 2025, they were projected to have a high payroll and CBT number yet again, before even making any offseason moves.

That has seemingly led to a shift in approach this winter. While they have been connected to many of the top available free agents in recent offseasons, they seemingly didn’t get involved in the Juan Soto frenzy and there have been many rumors about them trying to trade players like Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and others.

They reportedly had some interest in re-signing Hoffman and Estévez but both will likely be signing deals far larger than this pact for Romano. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Hoffman for a four-year, $44MM deal. That was before the clubs reportedly expressed interest in him as a starter, which could potentially increase his earning power. Estévez was projected for a more modest $27MM guarantee over three years, but still a notable commitment.

By going for Romano, the Phils are hoping that they are making a big upgrade to their bullpen but at a relatively low cost since they are buying low. There is some risk there, as relievers are generally volatile in general and Romano is coming off an injury-marred season, but it’s a logical gamble to take. If things go especially well, it’s possible the Phils could extend a qualifying offer to Romano at the end of next year. Qualifying offers for relievers are rare, but guys like Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Will Smith have received them in recent years.

Now factoring in Romano, RosterResource projects the Phillies for a $271MM payroll. That would be a franchise record by a significant margin, with Cot’s Baseball Contracts having them in the $242-244MM range in recent years but never higher than that. RR projects the CBT number at $289MM for next year. That’s not only beyond the $241MM base threshold but also the second and third tiers of $261MM and $281MM, respectively. As a third-time CBT payor, the Phils will be looking at a 50% base tax next year as well as surcharges of 12%, 45% and 60% for spending beyond the higher tiers. That means they are already slated for a 95% tax rate on any additional spending right now and a 110% rate if they go beyond $301MM, though successfully trading away a notable contract could drop them lower. If they remain above the third line of $281MM, they would also see their top pick in the 2026 draft dropped back ten spots. All of these could be significant factors as the club looks to make further upgrades in the rest of the offseason.

For the Jays, remaking the bullpen will also be a big storyline in the coming weeks and months. Their relief group had a collective ERA of 4.82 in 2024, ahead of just the Rockies and a key factor in their disappointing season. Getting better results out of the bullpen will be necessary for a turnaround but they will have to do so with a new closer. Chad Green racked up 17 saves in 2024 while Romano was mostly out of action and could be the favorite for the job among guys currently on the roster, but they could perhaps find an external addition and bump green into a setup role.

Jim Salisbury first reported the Phillies had interest in Romano. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the sides had reached an agreement. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first correctly reported the terms.

Mets Sign Clay Holmes

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The Mets officially announced the signing of Clay Holmes to a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after the second season. It’s a reported $38MM guarantee for the Wasserman client. Holmes will collect $13MM salaries in each of the next two years before deciding whether to opt out of the final year and $12MM. The deal comes with an approximate $12.67MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes. The Mets intend to use Holmes as a starting pitcher.

Holmes, who turns 32 on Opening Day, heads across town after three and a half seasons in the Bronx. He was an inconsistent pitcher for the Pirates between 2018-21. The Yankees, intrigued by his gaudy ground-ball rates, acquired him at the ’21 trade deadline. That move wasn’t met with a ton of fanfare, but Holmes broke out immediately after donning pinstripes.

Owner of a 4.93 earned run average at the time of the trade, Holmes fired 28 innings of 1.61 ERA ball to kick off his Yankees career. He took over as Aaron Boone’s closer by the following season. Holmes saved 20 games with a 2.54 ERA across 63 2/3 innings to earn his first All-Star nod in 2022. He followed up with 63 frames of 2.86 ERA ball while picking up 24 saves.

Holmes got out to another strong start this year. He didn’t allow an earned run over 13 1/3 innings through the end of April. He had a productive May as well, though he started to struggle with his command. That was a sign of a somewhat rocky summer. Holmes posted a 3.64 ERA in 30 appearances between the start of June and the end of August. While his rate production wasn’t terrible, he relinquished a lot of leads. By the start of September, the Yankees had replaced him in the ninth inning with Luke Weaver. Holmes finished the season in a setup role.

The 6’5″ righty concluded the regular season with a 3.14 ERA across 67 innings. He struck out around a quarter of batters faced against a league average 8.1% walk rate. Holmes got grounders at a characteristically excellent 65% clip. It’s far from a bad season, but he was bizarrely prone to blowing leads. While he recorded a career-high 30 saves, he was charged with an MLB-worst 13 blown saves. No other reliever gave up more than eight leads. He went into the postseason trending in the wrong direction after losing the closing job.

To his credit, Holmes rebounded when the lights were brightest. He only gave up three runs in 12 postseason innings. While he’d fallen behind Weaver in the bullpen hierarchy, he remained one of Boone’s most trusted setup options. Holmes picked up five holds without giving up the lead once in October.

That finish was a more fitting ending to his strong run in the Bronx. While the fanbase was divided at times on his reliability, Holmes posted good to elite numbers throughout his Yankee tenure. Of the 86 relievers with at least 150 innings over the past three years, Holmes ranks 17th in ERA. While his 25.7% strikeout percentage is middle of the pack, his 68.6% ground-ball rate is #1 among that group.

There’s no doubt that Holmes can be a productive reliever. The Mets believe he can be more than that. They’ll give him a chance at a full-time rotation role for the first time in his MLB career. Holmes has started four major league games, all of which came during his 2018 rookie season in Pittsburgh. Those didn’t go well — he allowed a 7.80 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in 15 innings — but that’s of little consequence. The Mets aren’t placing any stock in a minuscule sample that predated his breakout by three years.

Like many MLB relievers, Holmes was a starting pitcher in the minors. He’s not completely unfamiliar with working multiple innings, but it’ll be a tough test against big league hitters. He’ll probably need to make an adjustment to his pitch mix. Holmes has essentially abandoned his changeup since moving to the bullpen. His 96-97 MPH sinker is his go-to offering, the pitch most responsible for his huge grounder rates. Holmes has deployed two distinct breaking balls — an 87 MPH slider and an 83-84 MPH offering that Statcast classifies as a sweeper.

Having three pitches is an advantage as Holmes tries to navigate a lineup two or three times in an appearance. However, he hasn’t used a changeup or splitter that most starters have to handle opposite-handed hitters. Holmes has fared well against hitters of either handedness, but his strikeout and walk profile is far better when he holds the platoon advantage.

As a Yankee, Holmes held right-handed batters to a pitiful .203/.267/.284 batting line. He struck them out at a huge 31.7% clip against a tidy 6.2% walk rate. He fanned only 19.8% of left-handed opponents while issuing walks at a 9.8% rate. Holmes still held lefties to a mediocre .235/.318/.307 slash, but that’ll present more of a challenge as he works through a lineup multiple times.

There’s significant upside if Holmes can make that transition. Reliever to rotation success stories have gotten increasingly common. Seth Lugo, Reynaldo López, Garrett Crochet and Holmes’ former teammate Michael King have become top-of-the-rotation starters after spending most of their careers in relief. Jeffrey Springs, José Soriano and Zack Littell look like mid-rotation arms. It hasn’t been uniformly positive, though. Jordan Hicks wore down quickly when the Giants tried him as a starter last season. The Marlins experimented with A.J. Puk in the rotation. They pulled the plug by the end of April after he had four terrible starts.

Puk moved back to the bullpen with relative ease after the rotation experiment flopped. That’s a possibility for Holmes as well. The Mets surely believe he could return to a setup role in front of Edwin Díaz if he doesn’t take to the rotation. They’d be paying a high but not outlandish price for a leverage reliever in that case. Robert Stephenson, Rafael Montero and Taylor Rogers have signed three-year deals in the $33-35MM range in recent years. The Braves guaranteed López $30MM to give him a shot as a starter. Hicks, who is younger than the rest of that group, signed a four-year deal worth $44MM.

MLBTR predicted Holmes would land a three-year, $30MM contract that valued him as a setup arm. The Mets are going a little beyond that based on the perceived upside as a starter. The opt-out gives Holmes a chance to retest the market after two seasons. If he proves he’s capable of starting, he could do quite well in that return trip. There’s precedent for starters getting lucrative three-year deals at age 34. Lugo signed for $45MM, while Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt each inked $63MM contracts.

Holmes is the second rotation addition for the Mets in recent days. They finalized a two-year, $34MM deal with Frankie Montas on Wednesday. They’ve taken upside fliers in the middle of the market thus far — a strategy they employed to great success last offseason with Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. There should be more rotation moves on the way. New York already lost Severino and could see Manaea and Jose Quintana depart as free agents.

Kodai Senga and David Peterson likely have rotation spots secured, but there’s little certainty with a fifth spot that’d go to one of Tylor Megill or Paul Blackburn at the moment. Senga barely pitched this year, while Holmes could be on an innings limit. The Mets are still potential suitors for a top-of-the-market arm like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, though president of baseball operations David Stearns has yet to make that kind of move. At the very least, they’ll continue to identify upside targets in the middle of free agency.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the Mets and Holmes were in agreement on a three-year deal worth $38MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the opt-out clause and confirmed the Mets would use Holmes as a starter, which Sherman first suggested earlier this week. Will Sammon of the Athletic reported the salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Roki Sasaki Officially Posted For MLB Clubs

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Right-hander Roki Sasaki has been officially posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (X link) and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). That opens a 45-day window for Sasaki and his representatives to talk to MLB clubs, meaning he will need to have a deal in place by January 23 or else he will return to the Marines.

Since Sasaki is under 25 years old, having just turned 23, he is considered an amateur under MLB rules. As such, he must be signed as part of the international bonus pool system. The 2024 international signing period ends on December 15 and the 2025 period starts on January 15. All reporting has suggested that Sasaki will wait to sign until the new period starts up and each club gets a fresh pool of spending money, so he seems destined to sign somewhere between January 15 and 23rd, though the talks can now officially begin.

It seems to be a lock that Sasaki will be coming to the majors next year, the only question is who he will play for. Money won’t be the primary factor, as each club will be able to offer a roughly similar signing bonus. As laid out by Ben Badler of Baseball America, each club has a bonus pool in the $5-8MM range. Teams can trade for more pool money but can’t increase their initial allotment by more than 60%.

If money were Sasaki’s motivation, he would have waited another two years to make this move. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was posted after his 25th birthday and was able to secure a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers, but Sasaki has insisted on making the move now because he presumably just wants to test his mettle at the world’s top level as soon as possible.

He also surely knows that he will eventually be rewarded as long as he keeps pitching well. Shohei Ohtani also came to the majors as an amateur and had to settle for a small bonus with the Angels, but he flourished and eventually got his big paycheck from the Dodgers once he accrued six years of big league service time.

Given those parameters, Sasaki will likely be deciding his new club based on other factors. It has been suggested by some observers that the Dodgers are a favorite, given that the franchise has had success in general but also especially with pitchers. It’s also possible that the presence of Ohtani and Yamamoto might be nice for Sasaki as he makes the move to a new country and new culture. Some have also suggested the Padres as a strong contender since Sasaki reportedly has a strong relationship with Yu Darvish and might prefer to be in a market away from Ohtani and Yamamoto, giving him a greater chance to step into a spotlight and parlay that into sponsorships opportunities while his direct earning power is relatively low. He may have other preferences based on geography or a team’s competitive outlook, though those can only be guessed.

No club can be officially ruled out, however, given the cheap sticker price and Sasaki’s quality as a pitcher. He has allowed only 2.10 earned runs per nine innings over his NPB career, striking out 32.7% of batters faced while only giving out walks 5.7% of the time. There are some slight workload concerns since Sasaki has had some injuries and never thrown 130 innings in a season, but any club would still love to take a chance on him for the small price of a few million dollars.

Whoever ultimately lands Sasaki, it could lead to domino effects that impact other clubs. MLB teams generally commit their bonus pools years in advance via verbal agreements. Players in countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela aren’t allowed to sign until they are 16 years old but they often have handshake deals worked out with clubs years in advance. Whichever club agrees to sign Sasaki, even for a bonus of just a few million, might have to renege on a few of those verbal agreements. That would be an awful situation for those players but could lead to them suddenly becoming available for other clubs. That could create further domino effects if some clubs then back out of their own verbal agreements in order to pivot to the newly available players.

At Baseball America, Badler recently took a look at the chaos that could ensue as the Sasaki situation plays out. That will have to wait, as it likely won’t be known for over a month which team Sasaki will choose.

Cubs Sign Matthew Boyd

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DECEMBER 9: The Cubs made Boyd’s signing official on Saturday and Robert Murray of FanSided (X link) has the full contract details today. Boyd gets a $5MM signing bonus and a salary of $7.5MM in 2025, followed by a $14.5MM salary in 2026. There is a $2MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option for 2027. As for the bonuses, Boyd gets $100K for getting to 80, 90, 100, 110 and 120 innings pitched in each season.

DECEMBER 2: The Cubs have agreed with left-hander Matthew Boyd on a two-year deal that will guarantee him $29MM, per a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The deal includes $1MM in performance bonuses, $500K each year, that could take the total guarantee to $30MM over two years. Boyd is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Boyd, 34 in February, made his big league debut with the Blue Jays back in 2018 but established himself in the majors as a member of the Tigers the following year. From 2016 to 2020, Boyd served as a slightly below league average starter for Detroit with a 4.75 ERA (95 ERA+) and 4.54 FIP in 727 innings of work. The southpaw at times flashed exciting peripherals, such as the 2019 season when he punched out 30.2% of opponents in 185 1/3 frames while walking just 6.3%, but his overall body of work cast him as more of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm than anything else.

Matthew Boyd pitching for the Cleveland Guardians.

Boyd’s time with the Tigers came to a close when he required surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon late in the 2021 campaign, which left him limited to just ten relief appearances as a member of the Mariners. He returned to the Tigers in 2023 but made just 15 starts to lackluster results before going under the knife a second time, this time due to Tommy John surgery.

Once again a free agent coming off major surgery, Boyd remained unsigned headed into the 2024 season before eventually landing a big league deal with the Guardians back in June. The lefty didn’t make his season debut until mid-August after building up to game readiness in the minor leagues, but once he suited up for Cleveland he looked quite good with a 2.72 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 39 2/3 innings of work across eight starts down the stretch. He struck out 27.7% of his opponents while walking just 7.3%, which would have given Boyd one of the better K-BB% figures for a starter in the sport this year if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. He built on that solid regular season performance with a strong showing during the Guardians’ run to the ALCS. He pitched 12 innings for the club across four appearances (three starts), and struck out 28% of opponents while posting a dazzling 0.75 ERA.

That strong finish to Boyd’s season left the southpaw poised to garner plenty of interest in free agency this winter, even in spite of his checkered injury history. MLBTR ranked Boyd as the #23 free agent in this winter’s class on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, and predicted a two-year, $25MM guarantee that comes in just below the pact he ultimately landed with the Cubs. Boyd becomes the fifth starting pitcher to sign a multi-year deal this winter, joining Michael Wacha’s three-year deal with the Royals, Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year pact with the Angels, Blake Snell’s five-year contract with the Dodgers, and the two-year agreement between Frankie Montas and the Mets that was reported earlier this evening.

Notably, four of the five were unencumbered by draft pick compensation in a pitching market where plenty of borderline candidates such as Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino were extended the qualifying offer by their clubs. (Wacha re-signed in Kansas City the day before QOs were tendered but would very likely have received one.) Each pitcher has landed a deal that come in at or above expectations.

Even so, that seems to have pushed clubs that aren’t interested in signing a qualified free agent to act quickly. The calendar has only just flipped to December the market is already beginning to thin in terms of starters who aren’t attached to a qualifying offer. MLBTR predicted multi-year deals for just four more free agent starters who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation this winter: Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jose Quintana.

Turning back to the Cubs, the addition of Boyd adds another capable veteran arm to a rotation that already features lefties Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga as well as right-hander Jameson Taillon. Adding to the rotation has been a well-established priority for the club this winter, though early reports of plans to shop for a top-of-the-rotation arm eventually gave way to the suggestion Chicago could instead look for arms a tier or two below that pedigree. Boyd fits the latter description, given his roughly league-average work throughout his career and his recent struggles with injuries. The lefty has been limited to just 202 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2021 season, and in that time he’s posted a 4.04 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 3.97 FIP and a 23.2% strikeout rate against an 8% walk rate.

While Boyd may not necessarily profile as a front-end starter, it’s still not hard to imagine him providing an upgrade to the Cubs’ rotation when healthy. After all, the lefty was legitimately impactful for the Guardians this year in both the regular season and the playoffs, and that success being a late-career step forward rather than a simple hot streak can’t be ruled out for a pitcher who has long shown flashes of dominance throughout his time in the majors. What’s more, Chicago is perhaps uniquely well-equipped to handle any absences caused by future injuries thanks to a deep group of optionable arms that includes Ben Brown, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Hayden Wesneski who can step into the rotation fairly seamlessly if needed.

For the time being, that quartet appears likely to vie for the fifth spot in the club’s rotation this spring, with Assad as the early front-runner after a generally successful (3.73 ERA, 4.64 FIP) season as a starter in 2024. RosterResource currently projects the Cubs for a $176MM payroll in 2025, and the Boyd deal should move that up to the $191MM range. That still leaves a bit more than $20MM of breathing room relative to the club’s 2024 Opening Day payroll, which Cot’s Baseball Contracts notes sat just over $214MM. It’s not impossible to imagine the club pursuing another starter to strengthen their rotation through either free agency or trade this winter with the financial flexibility the club has remaining, but given the club’s needs at catcher and in the bullpen it seems those funds will likely be used elsewhere—at least unless a trade of Cody Bellinger clears some additional money off the club’s books.

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