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Hayden Wesneski

Astros Select Brandon Walter

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May 20: Per Chandler Rome of The Athletic, Walter has been selected and Wesneski transferred to the 60-day IL, as expected. Gordon has been optioned as the corresponding active roster move.

May 19: Left-hander Brandon Walter will start for the Astros tomorrow against Tampa Bay, manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). The Astros will need to add him to the 40-man roster. They can move Hayden Wesneski, who is ticketed for Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man spot. They’ll also need to make a corresponding active roster move involving a pitcher.

Walter signed a minor league contract with the Astros last August. It was apparently a two-year deal, as the southpaw spent last season on the injured list rehabbing a rotator cuff injury. Walter made his return to the mound during Spring Training, allowing four runs through seven innings.

He’s been working in a swing role at Triple-A Sugar Land, where he has started five of nine appearances. Walter owns a 2.27 ERA across 35 2/3 innings, backing that up with strong underlying marks. He’s getting grounders at a huge 60% rate, striking out upwards of a quarter of opponents, and has kept his walk rate to a minuscule 5.2% clip.

It has been a nice rebound effort for the 28-year-old lefty. Walter went from an unheralded 26th-round draft choice to one of the better pitching prospects in the Red Sox’s system a couple years ago. He was hit hard in his nine MLB appearances with the Sox, allowing a 6.26 ERA over 23 innings two seasons back. He owns a 4.19 ERA across parts of three Triple-A seasons. Walter isn’t going to overpower many hitters, as his four-seam and sinker each average 91 MPH. His five-pitch mix is headlined by his upper-70s sweeping slider.

Walter still has an option remaining, so the Astros can send him back to Sugar Land without putting him on waivers. For now, he joins rookie Ryan Gusto as swing options. Colton Gordon has taken Wesneski’s rotation spot, rounding out the starting five behind Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco and Lance McCullers Jr. The Astros haven’t had an off day since May 8 and won’t be off until next Monday. They’ll likely use Walter and Gusto in some kind of tandem outing tomorrow to reduce the workload on the rest of the staff.

Hayden Wesneski To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Astros right-hander Hayden Wesneski is set to undergo Tommy John surgery, manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) this afternoon. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relays that the Astros expect him back at some point during the 2026 campaign. A more specific timetable for his return won’t be known until after the procedure, which is expected to be performed in Dallas by Dr. Keith Meister later this week. In any case, he’ll miss the remainder of the 2025 season and presumably at least the first half of 2026 as well.

The news brings an abrupt end to Wesneski’s first season in Houston. The 27-year-old was acquired from the Cubs alongside All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes and top prospect Cam Smith in the deal that shipped longtime Astros star Kyle Tucker to Chicago back in December. Initially drafted by the Yankees in the sixth-round of the 2019 draft, Wesneski was traded to the Cubs in exchange for right-handed reliever Scott Effross at the 2022 trade deadline and went on to spend parts of three seasons as a swing man on the north side. Wesneski pitched 190 innings total across 22 starts and 46 relief outings for the Cubs from 2022 to 2024, and in that time he posted fairly pedestrian numbers with a 3.93 ERA (106 ERA+) and a 4.74 FIP. His 23.0% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate were both solid, but his production was generally held back by a penchant for allowing homers.

Among pitchers with at least 180 innings of work over that three-year span, Wesneski’s home run rate was ninth-highest.  That’s certainly not ideal, and that proclivity towards the long ball held Wesneski back from reaching what many evaluators viewed as a mid-rotation ceiling during his time with the Cubs. The Astros saw something they liked, however, as they not only traded for him as part of the Tucker deal but also gave him a spot in their Opening Day rotation. The righty was serviceable but unspectacular, with a 4.50 ERA and 4.79 FIP across six starts that both clocked in just a bit worse than league average. Home run issues persisted for Wesneski, but a reduced 4.6% walk rate was enough for some of his advanced metrics to improve, such as a 3.68 SIERA that clocked in well below his career mark.

Whether he’ll be able to push his actual production into a range closer to those peripheral numbers has become a question for another time, however. The right-hander was placed on the injured list with elbow discomfort nine days ago, and initial testing on his elbow did not provide much clarity about what issues Wesneski was facing until a follow-up appointment with Meister confirmed that the righty would need to go under the knife. While the Astros have said that Wesneski is expected back next year, Rome notes that the hurler is eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career this offseason and suggests that could make him a potential non-tender candidate this winter if he’s not expected to contribute much in 2026, as was the case with former Astro Jose Urquidy this past winter.

In the meantime, the Astros will left to rely on a rotation mix that just got a little less deep for 2025. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Lance McCullers Jr. are currently joined by rookie Colton Gordon in the rotation, with Ryan Gusto in the bullpen as a swing option. Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia, and Cristian Javier are all expected back at some point this season from the injured list to provide additional reinforcements, but the timeline for all three remains murky.

AL West Notes: Trout, Wesneski, Kirby, Gilbert

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When Angels superstar Mike Trout first went on the injured list just over a week ago due to a bone bruise in his left knee, Trout expressed optimism that he would be able to return after a minimum stay. He’s eligible to be activated on Sunday, but that ultimately will not come to pass. Trout told reporters (including Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com) that while he’s resumed swinging a bat with no issues, he has yet to begin running.

The good news is, that could change fairly soon. Trout indicated that he’ll be traveling with the Angels to San Diego for their upcoming series against the Padres this week, and there’s “a good chance” that he’ll start running on that road trip. Trout added that the pain he was feeling in his knee that led to the IL stint has now dissipated, and the veteran is encouraged enough by the progress that a return in the somewhat near future seems to be on the table, though an exact timeline won’t be able to be established until Trout resumes running.

Obviously, the face of the Angels franchise returning to the field will be a key factor in whatever hopes the club may have of clawing its way back into the AL playoff picture. A strong start to the 2025 campaign for the Halos has largely been snuffed out at this point, as they own a lackluster 15-22 record and are currently sitting in fifth place in the AL West. Even side from the odds of playoff baseball in Anaheim, however, Trout’s return to action would be reason for celebration for fans all around the game. A slam-dunk Hall of Famer who was on track to become one of the greatest players in history just a few years ago, Trout has appeared in just 295 games since the start of the 2021 season and will be looking to have his first mostly-healthy campaign since 2022 once he returns from the injured list.

More from around the AL West…

  • Astros right-hander Hayden Wesneski went on the injured list yesterday due to discomfort in his right elbow. It’s an ominous diagnosis that resulted in the righty being sent for imaging, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) this afternoon that while Wesneski’s MRI showed inflammation in his elbow, the club felt that they “couldn’t get a good read of what’s going on.” Espada added that the club’s plan is now to give Wesneski a few more days of rest in hopes that the inflammation will calm down before trying to reassess the situation and decide on next steps. It’s an update that offers little clarity on Wesneski’s path forward, much less a timetable for his return. The right-hander pitched to middling results in six starts for Houston this year after being acquired from the Cubs as part of the Kyle Tucker trade, with a 4.50 ERA in 32 innings of work.
  • The Mariners are without co-aces George Kirby and Logan Gilbert at the moment. Kirby has yet to pitch this year after beginning the season on the shelf due to shoulder inflammation, while tightness in Gilbert’s forearm shut him down near the end of last month. Seattle GM Justin Hollander told reporters (including Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) yesterday that Kirby would make one more rehab start after today’s outing with Triple-A Tacoma. That would put him in line to be activated at some point during the club’s upcoming road trip, perhaps either against the White Sox or the Astros. Gilbert, meanwhile, is further from a return given that he’s still just playing catch. Hollander did suggest, however, that the righty could resume throwing off the mound in the coming days. Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans are filling in for Kirby and Gilbert in the club’s rotation in the meantime.

Astros Place Hayden Wesneski On Injured List Due To Elbow Discomfort

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The Astros announced Friday that right-hander Hayden Wesneski is being placed on the 15-day injured list due to discomfort in his right elbow. Right-hander Logan VanWey will be recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land to take Wesneski’s spot on the roster. An exact diagnosis or expected timetable for Wesneski’s return has not been provided. His IL placement is retroactive to May 7.

It’s ominous any time a pitcher hits the injured list due to a nebulous designation such as “elbow discomfort.” Teams will typically provide further details — specific symptoms, diagnoses, timetables, etc. — not long after making announcements such as this one. The Astros are notoriously tight-lipped with any and all medical updates, however, so time will tell when they opt to divulge more information.

Regardless, the loss of Wesneski stings. One of three players acquired from the Cubs in exchange for Kyle Tucker, he opened the season in Houston’s rotation and has played a key role. His most recent start (four runs in four innings) bumped his ERA up to 4.50, but Wesneski had been sitting at a solid 3.86 mark prior. His most recent appearance was the first time in 2025 that he worked fewer than five innings and the first time he yielded more than three runs in a start.

Houston only just welcomed Lance McCullers Jr. back from an injury absence of more than two years. He joined Wesneski, Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Ronel Blanco in manager Joe Espada’s rotation, bumping rookie Ryan Gusto a long relief role. With Wesneski down for at least two weeks, it seems likely that Gusto will step back into the starting five, although Houston has righty AJ Blubaugh and lefty Colton Gordon both on the 40-man roster down in Triple-A.

Whoever steps into the rotation vacancy could be looking at an abbreviated stint on the starting staff. Certainly, the ’Stros will hope for a swift return for Wesneski. But even if he requires an absence of some note, other reinforcements could be on the way. Right-hander Spencer Arrighetti has been out since April 7 with a fractured thumb, but the Astros’ original hope was that he’d be able to return in about six weeks. That timetable might be hard to meet if he’s yet to resume throwing, but there’s yet to be any indication that he’s facing a substantially longer absence than originally hoped. Prospect Miguel Ullola has been dominant in his two most recent Triple-A appearances, tossing 10 scoreless innings and allowing only two hits and three walks while punching out 15. Looking further down the road, the club hopes to have righty Cristian Javier back later in the summer after he underwent Tommy John surgery last June.

Generally speaking, the Astros are reasonably well equipped to handle one loss of note in the rotation. A second injury, particularly one to Brown or Valdez, would prove a far greater test to the organization’s depth.

Astros Select AJ Blubaugh

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April 30: The Astros have made Blubaugh’s promotion official. His contract has been selected to the 40-man roster, which is now at capacity. Righty Bryan Abreu has been placed on the paternity list to clear a spot on the active roster.

April 29: The Astros are tabbing AJ Blubaugh to start tomorrow against the Tigers, the team announced to reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic). The righty will go opposite another rookie, Jackson Jobe, in his major league debut. Houston already has an opening on the 40-man roster; they’ll only need to make an active roster move involving a pitcher.

Blubaugh, 24, is one of the top pitching prospects in a Houston system that is light on arms. A seventh-round pick from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the 2022 draft, he has turned in a 4.02 ERA over 268 1/3 minor league innings. Drafted as a reliever, Blubaugh began a rotation move in 2023. He worked as a full-time starter a year ago, pitching to a 3.71 ERA in 28 appearances between the top two minor league levels. Blubaugh recorded a solid 24.5% strikeout percentage against a 9.4% walk rate.

The 6’2″ righty pitched in the Futures Game a season ago. He ranked among the top 10 prospects in the Houston system at both Baseball America and The Athletic (via Keith Law) over the offseason. He’s generally viewed as a likely back-end starter who has decent command of a fringe-average pitch mix. Blubaugh’s fastball velocity has ticked up early this year. He’s averaging 93.8 MPH on the pitch after sitting at 92.5 during his Triple-A work last season. He’s mixing five pitches (four-seam, cutter, slider, curveball and changeup) with regularity.

Blubaugh has found early success in a tough pitching environment in the Pacific Coast League. He carries a 3.86 ERA over 21 innings spanning five appearances. He has punched out 30% of opponents while walking batters at an elevated 10.8% rate. Blubaugh joins Colton Gordon as rotation depth options who occupy a 40-man roster spot.

It’s unclear if his first appearance will simply be a spot start. Hayden Wesneski would have been lined up on Wednesday. Manager Joe Espada said on Tuesday afternoon that the righty’s start would be skipped after he was pitching with diminished velocity during his start last Friday (link via Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). Espada downplayed the notion that Wesneski was injured, though it’s worth nothing the Astros provide less in the way of health specifics than any other team. In any case, Blubaugh will get the ball at least once in his initial call to the big leagues.

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker

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The Cubs and Astros announced that they have made a trade that will send outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago, with infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith heading to Houston.

It’s a move that would have been completely shocking as recently as a few weeks ago. Tucker has been a key part of the Astros dynasty and one of the best players in baseball in recent seasons. But over the past few weeks, reports emerged that the Astros were willing to listen to offers on Tucker as they looked to balance their desire to compete with some financial concerns. It appears that talks ramped up quickly and Houston found an offer they considered too good to pass up.

Tucker, 28 in January, was one of many high profile draft picks that went on to be part of the championship nucleus in Houston. The club aggressively tanked last decade, using high draft picks to select players like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and others. After failing to sign Brady Aiken, their top pick in 2014, they received a compensation pick in the 2015 draft. That gave them two of the top five picks in 2015, using the second overall pick to draft Alex Bregman and the fifth overall selection on Tucker.

Both picks were big successes, as Bregman and Tucker each established themselves as All-Star capable big leaguers. This deal now officially ends Tucker’s tenure in Houston and might poetically point to the end of Bregman’s as well. Houston decision makers have long pointed to re-signing Bregman, who is currently a free agent, as a top offseason priority. However, the two sides have reportedly remained far apart in negotiations and the pivot to Paredes might signal that Bregman won’t be coming back to Houston after all.

Tucker, 28 in January, hit 89 home runs over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He hit exactly 30 in the first two of those campaigns and then 29 in the third. He also stole 69 bases in that time, had above average walk and strikeout rates and strong defense. His combined line in that time was .278/.353/.517, which led to a 138 wRC+, indicating he was 38% better than league average. In 2024, he missed about three months due to a shin fracture but his limited performance was even stronger. He hit 23 home runs in just 78 games and his .289/.408/.585 line led to a 180 wRC+.

Putting all of those traits together, Tucker was worth about five wins above replacement in each of the 2021-2023 seasons, per FanGraphs. In 2024, he racked up 4.2 fWAR even though he missed roughly half the year. His 19.1 fWAR over the 2021-2024 stretch puts him 13th among MLB position players, though he played fewer games than everyone ahead of him, thanks to that injury absence.

Unlike some other clubs, the Astros have shown a willingness to let their star players go get paid elsewhere. They did that with Correa, Springer and Gerrit Cole, who went on to sign with the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively. That has aligned with a general reluctance to give out massive deals or pay the competitive balance tax. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Jose Altuve’s 2018 extension worth $157.5MM over six years is the biggest deal in franchise history, both in terms of years and dollars. The Astros went over the CBT line in 2020 but didn’t pay any taxes as the system was put on hold in the shortened season. 2024 was the first time they went over the line and actually had to pay the tax.

Coming into this winter, general manager Dana Brown suggested the club needed needed to “get a little bit creative” with the budget. Owner Jim Crane later pushed back on that stance a bit, but it appears the financial constraints are real. Reporting has indicated that the Astros made an offer to Bregman of $156MM but that he is looking for something closer to $200MM.

Tucker’s earning power next winter is likely to be even higher than Bregman’s is now. Bregman is going into his age-31 season now whereas Tucker will be going into his age-29 campaign next winter.

It’s possible the Astros decided they weren’t likely to get a long-term deal done with either player and explored trade talks with Tucker, with this offer ticking a lot of boxes for them. It clears Tucker’s salary, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for $15.8MM, off the 2025 books. Redirecting those savings to Bregman is still possible but they’ve also found themselves a potential replacement in Paredes.

Over the past three years, Paredes has hit 70 home runs and slashed .234/.338/.437 for a 123 wRC+. He’s also bounced around the infield, though has been at third base more than anywhere else. His defense at the hot corner has been close to average but it’s still made him roughly a 3-4 fWAR player recently. He is projected to make $6.9MM via arbitration next year and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond that.

Going to Houston might be an especially good fit for him, given that most of his home run power comes via pulling the ball towards the field foul pole. As pointed out by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, his home run total of 19 in 2024 would have been 26 if he played all his games in Houston and could take advantage of the Crawford Boxes.

It’s still possible that Houston could re-sign Bregman and move Paredes over to first base, since the club is also looking for help there, but time will tell how viable that is. Houston could find cheaper solutions at first base and leave Paredes at third for the next few seasons.

The acquisition of Smith also provides the Astros with a potential third baseman for the future. He was just drafted by the Cubs with the 14th overall pick a few months ago and slashed .313/.396/.609 in his professional debut, getting into 32 games across three different levels, finishing at Double-A. If the Astros stick with Paredes at third, Smith could push him for the job in the coming years, with Paredes eventually getting moved across the diamond.

The Astros also add a bit of pitching depth in the deal via Wesneski. The 27-year-old has decent underlying rates thus far in his career but problems with the long ball have pushed lots of runs across the plate. In 190 innings thus far in his career, he has a 23% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. But 35 home runs, a rate of 16.7% per fly ball, have led to a 3.93 ERA. If the Astros can help him keep the ball in the park, he can be a part of their pitching staff for years to come. He has less than two years of service time and can therefore be retained for another five seasons.

The club has plenty of question marks with its pitching right now. Each of McCullers, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and J.P. France missed all or part of 2024 due to notable arm surgeries, so each of those guys is a question mark heading into 2025. Framber Valdez is also a trade candidate in the same vein as Tucker, since he’s set to make an eight-figure salary and is one year away from free agency. Hunter Brown had an uneven season this year. Ronel Blanco was huge for Houston but is fairly limited in terms of starting experience. Spencer Arrighetti was decent in his rookie year but it’s hard to bank on him at this point.

In the bullpen, Ryan Pressly is another trade candidate. He’s set to make $14MM next year, the final season of his deal. Wesneski has worked both as a starter and as a reliever in his career, so he can help Houston in either department.

For the Cubs, it’s a lot to give up, and that’s especially true when looking back to their acquisition of Paredes. They just sent Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson to the Rays a few months ago, getting Paredes ahead of the summer deadline. In a sense, they have given up those three players plus Smith and Wesneski in order to get just one season of Tucker.

But there are good reasons why they have paid such a price. The club has been hovering around .500 in recent years, having a squad full of good players but lacking in truly elite ones. They also possess a very strong pipeline of prospects, several of whom are pushing for major league playing time. They have shown a reluctance to pay top dollar for free agents, so a big trade has seemed like the best way for them to upgrade the roster.

Tucker certainly qualifies. As mentioned, he has been one of the best position players in the majors recently and immediately becomes the best player for the Cubbies. Perhaps the Cubs will look to work out an extension with Tucker but that would require a very notable contract, the kind they haven’t given out recently. Even if Tucker is only at Wrigley for one year, the Cubs will at least be able to recoup draft pick compensation by issuing him the qualifying offer after 2025.

In addition to that, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is in the final year of his contract. With the Cardinals taking their foot of the gas pedal next year and the Reds and Pirates still struggling to come out of rebuilds, there’s a window for the Cubs to take a step forward, push the Brewers for the division and get Hoyer some extra job security.

It’s also possible that they won’t miss any of the pieces they gave up too much, even though they make a lot of sense for Houston. As mentioned, the Cubs have an excellent farm system. On Baseball America’s Top 100, they currently have six players on the list, which doesn’t even include Smith. Though it surely hurts to give up their most recent first round pick, the farm is still in good shape overall.

That farm might also be able to provide an immediate Paredes replacement. One of the club’s top prospects is Matt Shaw, who has played a bit of middle infield but a bit more at third.  He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .284/.379/.488 for a 146 wRC+. If the Cubs feel Shaw is ready to make the jump to the majors, that may have made Paredes expendable. Wesneski is also a talented pitcher but he’s been squeezed from the rotation plans in Chicago and largely kept in a swing role.

It’s a huge move for both clubs and will surely lead to more, especially for the Cubs. They already had a crowded outfield mix even before adding Tucker into it. They also have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, not to mention prospects Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. They have reportedly been trying to work out a deal involving Bellinger or, to a lesser extent, Suzuki. Happ and Suzuki both have no-trade clauses, making them difficult to move. Bellinger has an opt-out after 2025, which also makes him a tricky trade candidate.

One way or another, a move from that group feels inevitable. The Yankees have been connected to both Tucker and Bellinger, so perhaps they will now focus more on the latter now that they didn’t get Tucker.

For the Astros, what’s still unknown is if the door is totally closed to Bregman. It certainly feels like that may be the case, though it’s not impossible to see a path back to Houston. RosterResource estimates their competitive balance tax number at $225MM, which is $16MM shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Signing Bregman would certainly push them over, though not by as much now that Tucker’s gone. They could also theoretically lower their number by trading Valdez or Pressly. Then again, they’ve been talking about signing a new deal with Bregman for two years without it happening, so perhaps this is the door finally closing.

It’s also unknown if Houston is content with its Tucker-less outfield. Yordan Alvarez is a strong hitter but often relegated to DH duties due to ongoing knee issues. Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and Taylor Trammell are other options on the roster, along with utility types like Mauricio Dubón and Shay Whitcomb. The group obviously looks weaker without Tucker in it, so perhaps the Astros will look to bolster the group in the coming weeks and months.

Time will tell how the move plays out in the full offseason for both clubs. But for today, the Cubs have added a huge talent to the roster without giving up anything truly heartbreaking. The Astros have lost that huge talent but could have made up a decent amount of his value in the short term while clearly helping themselves in the long term.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported this morning that the Cubs and Astros were “circling” on a deal involving Tucker, Paredes and Smith. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first mentioned Wesneski’s inclusion. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the deal was done.

Cubs Close To Deal For Kyle Tucker

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1:20pm: Right-hander Hayden Wesneski is also involved in the talks, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

1:03pm: The Cubs and Astros are “close” to an agreement on a Tucker trade, tweets Heyman. Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston reports that the two sides have discussed a return that would send Paredes, Smith and a third player to Houston.

12:56pm: Talks between the two sides have “continued to gain momentum,” Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Smith and Paredes are “among the names being discussed,” suggesting others could indeed be in play.

9:10am: The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a trade that would send star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. It’s not yet clear whether other players are involved on either end. There’s no indication a deal is nearing the finish line.

Tucker, 27, only recently emerged as a viable trade candidate. The former No. 5 overall pick broke out as an everyday player in 2020 and has since elevated himself to one of the game’s best young players all around. Over the past four seasons, he’s turned in a .280/.362/.527 slash with 112 homers, 80 steals, an 11.3% walk rate and just a 15.1% strikeout rate. A fracture in his shin cost him much of the 2024 season, but he had his most productive season ever when healthy: .289/.408/.585, 23 homers, 16.5% walk rate in 78 games.

Tucker is a year from reaching free agency as a 28-year-old and is poised to command the type of mega-contract that Astros owner Jim Crane has been unwilling to offer; Houston’s longest contract under Crane has been Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal. Jose Altuve’s $151MM extension is the largest in terms of overall guarantee. Tucker could command double that guarantee in free agency over a significantly longer term than Alvarez’s deal.

For the Cubs, adding Tucker would only further increase the likelihood of trading Cody Bellinger and/or Seiya Suzuki. Tucker would supplant both in right field. Chicago already has young Michael Busch at first base and Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field. Left fielder Ian Happ has a full no-trade clause. There’d be no obvious spot to play either Bellinger or Suzuki other than designated hitter. That’d be a waste of Bellinger’s solid defensive skills, and Suzuki has a preference to play in the field rather than slot in as a primary DH. He also has a full no-trade clause, further complicating matters.

The trio of players’ contracts are worth keeping in mind, too. Tucker is entering his final season of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $15.8MM this coming season. Bellinger is guaranteed a $27.5MM salary next season and has a $25MM player option with a $5MM buyout for the 2026 season. In essence, he’s guaranteed at least $32.5MM for one year and perhaps $52.5MM over the next two seasons, pending that opt-out decision. Suzuki has two years to go on his five-year, $85MM contract and will earn $18MM in each of the next two seasons.

For the Astros, trading Tucker would be a tough pill to swallow. Crane has voiced a willingness to pay the luxury tax if the right situation presents itself but seems to rather clearly prefer to avoid doing so for what would be a second straight season. The ’Stros have been angling to bring longtime third baseman Alex Bregman back into the fold, but he’s been seeking a deal north of $200MM while Houston’s most recent reported offer was for six years and $156MM. That the Astros are looking at not only an immediate big league option at the hot corner (Paredes) but also a recent first-round pick whose primary position is third base (Smith) at least implies some pessimism of completing a reunion with Bregman.

That said, the Astros also have a need at first base. Paredes could capably fill that role, as he’s played all four infield positions throughout his big league career. He’s primarily been a third baseman, but he does have nearly 400 innings at first base under his belt. It’s at least possible that the Astros could use the payroll space created by a potential Tucker trade to re-sign Bregman, play Paredes at first base and then simply be content to add a player with Smith’s overall upside to the upper tiers of their system. Smith isn’t likely to be a big league option until 2026 anyhow, and his bat is his calling card; a move to an outfield corner isn’t out of the question at some point.

Paredes, 26 in February, went from the Rays to the Cubs at the 2024 trade deadline and struggled in his new environs. The versatile slugger hit .250/.342/.488 and belted 31 homers for Tampa Bay in 2023 and looked well on his way to approximating that production in ’24 when he hit .245/.357/.435 with the Rays prior to the trade. With Chicago, however, Paredes slumped to a tepid .223/.305/.307 slash in 212 plate appearances.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Paredes is a .234/.338/.437 hitter (123 wRC+) who’s swatted 70 homers while playing four different positions across the past three seasons. He’s walked in a strong 11.2% of his plate appearances during that span against a 17.3% strikeout rate that’s about five percentage points lower than average. He’s projected to earn $6.9MM in 2025 and is under club control through the 2027 season. He’d be a long-term add for the Astros who can help out at a variety of positions and who would offer a solid bat against righties and plus production against southpaws (.274/.366/.456). On top of that, he ranked third among all qualified MLB hitters in pull percentage this season and posted the second-lowest ground-ball rate in that same set. An extreme-pull righty bat with that kind of penchant for elevating the ball seems almost tailor-made for Houston’s short left field porch.

Smith, meanwhile, was just selected with the No. 14 pick last summer and signed for a bonus a bit north of $5MM. The Florida State product absolutely torched minor league pitching with a .313/.396/.609 slash in 134 plate appearances across two Class-A levels and Double-A. It was one of the best debut performances of any draftee and only served to further elevate his already considerable prospect stock. Baseball America ranks Smith sixth in a deep Cubs farm system that in 2024 boasted six of the game’s top 100 prospects. Smith will likely be included on several top-100 rankings ahead of the 2025 season.

Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros for a $215MM bottom-line payroll with nearly $234MM of luxury tax obligations. That leaves them about $7MM shy of this season’s $241MM tax threshold. Moving Tucker would open up quite a bit of breathing room, as would a trade of reliever Ryan Pressly, whose name has also frequented the rumor circuit this offseason. He’s owed $14MM but can veto any trade scenario as a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team). Astros general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that his club might need to be “creative” to address roster needs amid payroll uncertainty, and talk of potential deals involving Tucker, Pressly and lefty Framber Valdez all fit under that umbrella.

Cubs Release Shawn Armstrong

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September 26: Armstrong has been released, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com.

September 20: The Cubs announced that they have activated right-hander Hayden Wesneski from the 15-day injured list, with fellow righty Shawn Armstrong designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic was among those to relay the moves on X.

Armstrong, 34, only joined the club three weeks ago. His results in a small sample of appearances since then have been fine and this move says more about the club than about him. He was claimed off waivers from the Cardinals at the end of August when the Cubs were within five games of a playoff spot with a month left to go. Now they’re seven games back with just over a week remaining on the schedule.

The veteran righty is an impending free agent, so the Cubs have little use for him now as they play out the string on this season. They will put him on waivers in the coming days. He wouldn’t be postseason eligible with any claiming club, so there’s little incentive for one still in contention to put in a claim as they would have to take on the remainder of his $2.05MM salary. That would be less than $100K by the time the waiver process plays out but the club would also only receive about a week of Armstrong’s services in exchange.

Armstrong has already pitched for three teams this year, tossing 66 2/3 innings between the Rays, Cardinals and Cubs. His 4.86 earned run average isn’t terribly impressive but his other numbers paint a nicer picture. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate are both fairly close to league average. His .362 batting average on balls in play seems to be hurting him, which is why his 3.58 FIP and 3.95 SIERA are significantly better than his ERA.

The Rays got good results out of Armstrong in the previous two seasons. He tossed 55 innings for them in 2022 with a 3.60 ERA. Last year, he gave the Rays 52 innings with a tiny ERA of 1.38. That number is surely a little misleading, as his .250 BABIP and 80.9% strand rate helped him out, but he did post a 26.1% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate.

This year, as mentioned, his ERA hasn’t been as strong. But the Cardinals evidently believed in the under-the-hood numbers, as they sent two-plus years of Dylan Carlson to the Rays in order to get Armstrong prior to the deadline. Just a few weeks into August, they had slid enough in the standings that they put Armstrong on waivers and saved a bit of money by having the Cubs claim him.

If Armstrong goes unclaimed in the coming days, he has enough service time to reject an outright assignment and keep what’s left of this year’s salary, so perhaps he will get his offseason started a few days ahead of schedule. That is unless some team in a tight playoff race will be interested in snagging him off the wire for the final week of the season.

Cubs Planning To Add Starting Pitcher In Offseason

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The Cubs are planning to add an established starting pitcher to their rotation this winter, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The club has Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in four spots. Per Mooney’s report, adding one more name into that mix would push guys like Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks and Hayden Wesneski down the depth chart.

“In one sense, you feel like you’re in a solid position because we have a number of young pitchers (who) have had success in the big leagues,” Manager Craig Counsell is quoted as saying in the piece. “Now with all of them, there’s been injuries. And it’s not a big sample as of yet. But that’s also kind of the nature of pitching. It’s the nature of young pitching. So we’re in a good spot in terms of that area of depth. But as we saw this year, it disappeared quickly.”

The quartet of Imanaga, Steele, Taillon and Assad have been the club’s best starters this year, both in terms of quality and quantity. Each of that group has an ERA of 3.41 or lower at the moment and all of them have tossed between 130 and 175 innings on the season thus far.

But as Counsell alluded to, there were also some challenges. Steele made a couple of trips to the injured list, one for a left hamstring strain and another for left elbow tendinitis. The Cubs had picked up a $16.5MM club option to bring back Kyle Hendricks but that ultimately proved to be a misstep. Hendricks struggled badly enough to get moved to the bullpen. He eventually retook a rotation spot but has a 6.28 ERA for the year overall. Wicks is currently on the IL for the third time this year, having gone on the shelf for a left forearm strain and then two separate stints for right oblique strains. Brown hasn’t pitched since June due to a stress reaction in his neck. Horton last pitched in May, getting shut down with a subscapularis strain and suffering a setback while trying to return the mound.

An argument could be made for rolling into 2025 with the same front four, letting the group of Wicks, Brown, Horton and Wesneski fight for the fifth spot. But with so many issues in 2024, adding some more security makes plenty of sense. None of those four are fully established. Wesneski is the only one with more than 81 big league innings pitched, and his 186 frames have been split between the bullpen and rotation. Wicks, Brown and Wesneski all still have options, meaning they could be stretched out in Triple-A if not needed on the big league staff. Horton isn’t yet on the 40-man and doesn’t need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft until December of 2025.

The Cubs also might not have much else on their winter to-do list. Even if Cody Bellinger eventually opts out, the outfield will still have Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Mike Tauchman, with Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara and Brennen Davis at Triple-A. The infield has Isaac Paredes, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch, with Matt Shaw knocking on the door. Miguel Amaya has shown some progress at the plate and Christian Bethancourt can be retained for next year if the Cubs believe in his recent performance. Moises Ballesteros will also be pushing for a job soon.

The bullpen arguably should be a focus but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had made it clear he would prefer to not to make free agent splashes there. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, since Hoyer was hired in November of 2020, the club hasn’t given a multi-year deal to any reliever. And of the one-year deals they have given out, the only guy to get more than $5MM was Héctor Neris, who got $9MM.

Unless a change is coming in terms of the approach to bullpen construction, starting pitching is a logical target with the position player group in strong shape. And there should be some powder dry for reinforcements. The club went narrowly over the $237MM competitive balance tax this year, with RosterResource currently pegging their number a bit over $238MM. Next year’s tally is only at $126MM right now. Arbitration raises for guys like Paredes and Steele will certainly add to that number and it will grow significantly if Bellinger decides to stay, but there will still be room for a notable contract.

Hoyer hasn’t played at the top of the market in terms of starting pitching but has given out some mid-market deals. As shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker again,  Imanaga, Taillon and Marcus Stroman have each received guaranteed between $53MM and $71MM, the largest guarantees the Cubs have given to starting pitchers in the Hoyer era.

This winter’s starting pitching class will be topped by guys like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and Blake Snell, assuming Snell stays healthy and opts out of his deal. Signing any of those guys would likely require the Cubs to go to a new level of spending, getting into nine-figure territory. If they want to stay in that Stroman/Taillon/Imanaga tier, they’d probably be debating names like Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta and others. Hall-of-Fame-bound veterans Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander will be limited to short-term deals since they are both in their 40s and coming off injury-plagued years in 2024.

The trade market will be another option for the Cubs. The White Sox didn’t end up flipping Garrett Crochet at the deadline but could perhaps make him available again in the winter. The Marlins lost almost all their rotation options to injury this year but it’s possible to see them considering deals as the group gets healthier for 2025. Somewhat similarly, the Rays seem to have an abundance of rotation options with Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen returned from long absences, with Shane McClanahan to join them next year. Other possibilities will surely emerge as the winter goes on.

It will be an interesting offseason for the Cubs. Their signing of Swanson heading into 2023 seemed to signal a wish to return to contention after a couple of rebuilding years. They had a solid but unspectacular year in 2023, winning 83 games. They may top that here in 2024, currently at 80-76, but will miss the postseason again. Pressure figures to be high for a club that hasn’t made the postseason in a full campaign since 2018, but a lot of good elements are in place and a few finishing touches could perhaps get them over the hump in 2025.

Luke Little Suffers “Likely” Season-Ending Lat Strain

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July 22: The Cubs today transferred Little to the 60-day injured list, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune on X. His roster spot goes to righty Julian Merryweather who has been reinstated from his own stint on the 60-day IL. Righty Hunter Bigge was optioned to make room for Merryweather on the active roster.

July 20: Cubs left-hander Luke Little was placed on the injured list with a left shoulder strain prior to the All-Star break last week, and today manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) that the injury is “likely” to end the youngster’s season.

It’s a brutal development for the 23-year-old rookie, who has generally looked excellent since making his debut with the club back in September of last year. Chicago’s fourth-round pick from the 2020 draft, Little has posted a 2.76 ERA (158 ERA+) with a 3.61 FIP in 32 2/3 innings of work at the big league level to this point in his young career and has flashed the sort of high-end talent that could make him a potential high leverage arm for the Cubs in the future.

The hard throwing lefty averages more than 96mph on his fastball and has struck out a strong 28.8% of batters faced in the majors so far, but has to this point been held back by control issues. Little has walked an excessive 15.8% of opponents to this point in his career, including 16.5% this season. While his ability to avoid giving up homers (he’s allowed just one in his career to this point) has allowed him to post strong results in spite of that lack of control, his 4.29 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA both suggest that his current production isn’t entirely sustainable unless he can curtail his wildness.

Even with those potential red flags in his profile, the loss of Little is still a devastating blow for the Cubs. Chicago’s bullpen has been shaky all season due to injuries to their primary high-leverage duo of Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather, which forced the likes of Hector Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. into more prominent roles. While strong performances from internal youngsters like Little and Porter Hodge as well as savvy external pickups like Tyson Miller and Jorge Lopez have helped to steady the Chicago relief corps’s production in recent weeks, only the Rockies and White Sox have blown more saves than the Cubs’ 18.

The news regarding Little figures to further tax a bullpen that also lost right-hander Hayden Wesneski to the 15-day injured list today, although Counsell told reporters (including Mooney) that the club believes that Wesneski’s forearm issue is not serious and that he’ll be back on the mound in Chicago fairly quickly. The righty has pitched crucial innings for the Cubs while swinging between the bullpen and the rotation this year and sports a 3.96 ERA (albeit with a lackluster 4.72 FIP) across 61 2/3 innings of work this season.

The continued stacking of bullpen injuries makes the relief corps an obvious place for improvement ahead of the trade deadline on July 30, but the Cubs haven’t made their plans for this deadline clear and entered today with a 47-53 record that places them dead last in the NL Central and 4.5 games out of an NL Wild Card spot. Should the Cubs opt to stand pat or even sell short-term assets such as Neris and veteran lefty Drew Smyly, the club will be left to hope that the likes of Merryweather and Alzolay can return healthy later this year and provide a boost while youngsters such as Hodge and Hunter Bigge step up to handle meaningful innings.

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