Reds, Todd Frazier Agree To Two-Year Deal
The Reds and Todd Frazier have avoided arbitration with a two-year, $12MM deal, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). Frazier will receive $4.5MM in 2015 and $7.5MM in 2016, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets. Frazier is a client of CAA Sports.
Frazier had filed for $5.7MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility, with the Reds countering at $3.9MM, according to MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. With $4.8MM as the midpoint between those two figures, $12MM for this year and next accounts for what would have been a fairly typical arbitration-year raise for 2016, to the $7MM range. After the contract ends, Frazier will be under Reds control for one more year, and he will be eligible for arbitration after 2016.
Frazier, who will turn 29 next week, was one of the Reds’ top performers in the team’s tough 2014 season. Frazier hit .273/.336/.459, led the team with 29 homers and played in his first All-Star Game. He also received good marks for his defense at third base, posting an above-average UZR at the position for the third straight season.
With Frazier’s case now settled, the only remaining Reds player with a pending arbitration case is closer Aroldis Chapman.
Pirates Win Arbitration Hearing Against Neil Walker
The Pirates have won an arbitration hearing against second baseman Neil Walker, reports MLB.com’s Tom Singer (on Twitter). Walker, who had filed at $9MM as opposed to the club’s $8MM figure (as shown in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker), will earn that $8MM sum in 2015. He’d been projected to earn $8.6MM in arbitration by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — a figure he may have approached had team and player been able to find a middle ground.
The 29-year-old Walker has now gone through the arbitration process three times, and the Super Two player will be eligible once more next winter before hitting free agency in the 2016-17 offseason. Walker had a breakout season in terms of power in 2014 but missed time due to both an appendectomy and lower back pain. He batted .271/.342/.467 with a career-high 23 homers, however, despite appearing in just 137 games.
Durability has long been an issue for the Excel Sports Management client, as Walker went through two turns on the 15-day DL in 2013 (though one was for a lacerated hand upon being spiked) and missed significant time in 2012 due to a herniated disc in his lower back. However, there’s been little question about his productivity when on the field; since establishing himself as Pittsburgh’s everyday second baseman in 2010, the hometown hero has batted .274/.341/.435, averaging 15 homers per season and an adjusted OPS of 116+ (indicating that he’s been 16 percent better than a league-average hitter when adjusting for league and park).
With Walker’s case out of the way, the Pirates have to remaining situations to settle, as both Pedro Alvarez and Vance Worley have unresolved cases.
Reds Sign Burke Badenhop, Designate Ismael Guillon
1:03pm: Badenhop will earn $50K for reaching 45 appearances, $100K for 50 appearances and another $100K for 55 appearances, reports WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. He’s made 63 or more appearances in each of the past three seasons, making those bonuses seem highly attainable.
12:02pm: MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon adds (via Twitter) that Badenhop can earn up to $250K via performance bonuses.
11:45pm: Grantland’s Jonah Keri reports that Badenhop is guaranteed $2.5MM, as he’ll earn $1MM in 2015 and has a $1.5MM buyout on a $4MM mutual option for the 2016 season (Twitter links).
11:33pm: The Reds announced today that they have signed right-hander Burke Badenhop to a one-year contract with a mutual option for the 2016 season. Lefty Ismael Guillon has been designated for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
The contract should serve as a fine birthday present for Badenhop, who turns 32 years old tomorrow. The ground-ball specialist has been quietly excellent over the past three seasons despite being traded twice in that time, posting a combined 2.90 ERA with 5.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 55.3 percent ground-ball rate. Badenhop, a client of ACES, has totaled 195 1/3 innings over that three-year stretch, spending one season each with the Rays, Brewers and Red Sox.
Badenhop was one of the top remaining arms on a relief market that still features right-handers Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain. He’ll slot into a bullpen that features lights-out closer Aroldis Chapman, setup man Sam LeCure and lefties Sean Marshall and Manny Parra. Reds fans looking to get to know their newest reliever can check out the MLBTR Podcast from Oct. 30, in which Badenhop himself was a guest and chatted with host Jeff Todd. Badenhop was an excellent interview, sharing insightful answers about his strengths and weaknesses as well as his knowledge of advanced metrics and experiences from pitching in multiple roles out of the bullpen.
As for Guillon, the soon-to-be 23-year-old has struggled over the past two seasons at two Class-A levels, pitching to a combined 4.82 ERA with 248 strikeouts against 150 walks in 244 2/3 innings of work. He ranked among Baseball America’s Top 30 Reds prospects following the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons, topping out at No. 9. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel recently pegged him 21st among Reds farmhands, noting that his changeup is a 60-65 on the 20-80 scale, but his curve is below average, and his upside comes with maddening inconsistency. One Reds source described Guillon as a “pull your hair out kind of guy” to McDaniel, who noted that Guillon would be an intriguing waiver pickup should Cincinnati part ways with him.
Phillies Could Make Cliff Lee Available This Spring
Lost in the commotion somewhat in Philadelphia is veteran ace Cliff Lee, who made only 13 starts last year while dealing with elbow problems. But he, too, could be a trade candidate — possibly sooner than expected. The Phillies will consider trading Lee during camp if he can prove his health, the team told at least one rival executive, who relayed that information to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
It is not exactly surprising that the club is preparing to listen on Lee, of course. The Phils front office has candidly acknowledged that it is embarking upon a rebuilding effort, and has already moved several veterans.
But Lee’s health questions made the timetable uncertain. It now appears at least plausible that he could come available before the season, which is not only significant in its own right but may have some impact on the trade market for other arms (including, perhaps, his teammate Cole Hamels).
Of course, the major issue with Lee is the fact that his elbow problems coincide with the tail end of a significant contract. Lee is owed $25MM for the coming season and can be controlled for another year through a $27.5MM option that comes with a hefty $12.5MM buyout.
While it is conceivable that a healthy Lee would make that 2016 option look reasonable, it is difficult to imagine a competitor giving value and taking on $27.5MM in obligations at this point. It probably does not help that Lee has lost a tick off his average fastball in each of the last two seasons. There will no doubt be interest if Lee looks his old self this spring, but it figures to be hard for Philly to find an attractive offer unless it waits til the summer.
Apart from his recently-balky left elbow, Lee has been nothing short of outstanding even as he has aged. Lee’s 2014 campaign broke a streak of six straight seasons in which he had gone over 200 innings. Over that stretch, he carried a 2.89 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against just 1.3 BB/9.
It is worth noting that Lee does have a no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to twenty teams per year. Last year, Lee could only be traded without consent to the remaining four NL East clubs and the Indians, Astros, Twins, Padres, and Rays. That seemingly strategic list appears fairly likely to have undergone some changes this time around.
While Lee managed only a 3.65 earned run average last year, he otherwise posted strikeout-to-walk ratios that were completely in line with his past results. Once a .358 BABIP was accounted for, ERA estimators valued his work right around his typical three-earned-per-nine level.
James Shields Rumors: Friday
The latest reports on the James Shields front from Thursday had the Padres as the likely favorites to sign the right-hander, with the Cubs and Blue Jays on the periphery of the talks. Shields is reportedly expected to come to a decision by the time this weekend comes to a close, so resolution to his lengthy free agency saga could be nigh. Here’s the latest on the former Royals righty…
- Whether or not the Padres are the favorites to sign Shields, they have not spoken with his camp in over 24 hours, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Agreement does not appear imminent, per the report, though San Diego has discussed numbers with Shields.
Earlier Updates
- Cubs manager Joe Maddon tells MLB Network Radio (Twitter link) that club president of baseball operations Theo Epstein spoke with him about the prospect of signing the righty. Those comments certainly confirm prior reports that the team has had some internal consideration of the possibility, though of course it remains unclear exactly what level of interest Chicago has (and at what price it might bite).
- Astros owner Jim Crane told Jose De Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle that he doesn’t envision his team signing Shields. Some have speculated that Houston could be a sleeper for Shields, with the fruits of their rebuilding efforts on the brink of Major League contribution. However, Crane cited the lack of TV revenue from 2014 and Shields’ age as factors. “With the (local) TV money not coming in last year, that really hurt. That was over $50 million that we did not receive,” said Crane, who also added that he’s not sure the team is quite ready to begin making four-year investments. He did note that the Astros would have to consider the move “if we got a good deal.”
- There’s a growing sense among those involved in Shields talks that he will end up with the Padres, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com.
- The Padres are believed to have a max payroll of about $105MM in 2015, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). As such, Lin feels that an addition of Shields is very possible for the Friars. San Diego currently projects to have a payroll around $84MM, thanks to the $18MM of Matt Kemp‘s 2015 salary that will be picked up by the Dodgers.
Anthopoulos On Bullpen, Happ, Extensions
The Blue Jays held a “State Of The Franchise” event for season ticket-holders at the Rogers Centre on Thursday, with president Paul Beeston, manager John Gibbons and GM Alex Anthopoulos in attendance to discuss the club’s offseason and future plans. As you would expect, most of the hot stove-related news came from Anthopoulos, and here’s the roundup of his comments from Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi (links are to Davidi’s Twitter feed).
- The Jays are still concentrating their efforts on bullpen help, though Anthopoulos said they’re looking for depth and not specifically a closer. “We’re not overly concerned about the ninth inning, because we do think there are some guys that can get those last three outs,” Anthopoulos said, referring to Aaron Sanchez and Brett Cecil. “We are concerned about the general depth — just having enough guys to lead into the ninth.” Toronto has been linked to such notable relief names as Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano and Phil Coke in recent weeks, though of that group, Coke is the only one who wouldn’t expect to close.
- While the club is still looking for relievers, Anthopoulos said the Jays could also save their payroll space to make additions at the end of Spring Training or during the season.
- The Jays are likely set at second base, Anthopoulos said. Maicer Izturis, Ryan Goins, Steve Tolleson and Munenori Kawasaki are the internal options at the keystone, with newly-acquired prospect Devon Travis still probably a year away.
- With Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion both entering their last seasons under contract, Anthopoulos said he expects “that at some point we’ll sit down with them and try to work something out” in regards to extensions. The Jays hold club options ($14MM for Bautista, $10MM for Encarnacion) on the two sluggers for 2016 that look like no-brainers to be exercised, so the club has plenty of time to negotiate.
- The Mariners claimed J.A. Happ off waivers from the Blue Jays last August, Anthopoulos said. The two sides couldn’t agree to a trade at the time and Happ finished the season in Toronto, though they did discuss Michael Saunders during negotiations. The M’s and Jays finally worked out a Saunders-for-Happ trade in December.
James Shields Rumors: Thursday
The market for James Shields is picking up steam, to say the least, with multiple reports indicating that he could decide upon a team before this weekend comes to a close. As of yesterday, the Marlins were still said to be in talks for Shields, with the Cubs “kicking the tires.” The Padres were indirectly connected to Shields, as reports had them seeking a top-end starter, though Shields was not mentioned by name.
Here are today’s Shields-related items…
- “The Padres…have to be considered favorites for” Shields, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. The fact that Shields lives in San Diego could indeed give the Padres the edge, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes.
- While the Padres are indeed “among the favorites” for Shields, Heyman reports that “a few other teams, including at least one surprise” are in contact with Shields’ camp. A person connected to the Cubs tells Heyman that Chicago could get involved in Shields’ market if his price falls significantly; the Cubs’ interest in Shields was first reported yesterday.
- The Blue Jays are “kicking the tires” on Shields, which is a surprise to Heyman given their payroll limitations. This isn’t the first time Toronto has been linked to Shields, though it remains to be seen if the Jays can create the financial space to sign Shields even at a lowered price tag.
Earlier Updates
- The Dodgers are currently focused on international stars Yoan Moncada and Hector Olivera and not Shields, tweets Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons. Many have speculated that the Dodgers could make a play based not only on their deep pockets but on the presence of former Rays GM Andrew Friedman atop the new L.A. baseball operations department.
- Multiple sources have told Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald that they do not expect the Marlins to sign Shields. One source characterized the chances as “zero percent.” For what it’s worth, others have also reported the chances as “zero,” only to have rumors of talks between the two sides resurface. Ultimately, however, it seems that the Fish are long shots. Shields’ reported desire to play for a team on the West Coast and the Marlins’ limited payroll are both detrimental factors.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has been told by sources in recent weeks that the Cardinals “are not a team with interest.” As Goold outlines, the Cardinals may be wary not only of forfeiting a draft pick but of forfeiting the portion of their draft bonus pool that would go along with it. Based on last year’s slot figures, signing Shields would cost St. Louis 28.3 percent of its bonus pool.
Red Sox Sign Wade Miley To Three-Year Deal
The Red Sox and left-hander Wade Miley will never have to worry about arbitration, as his agents at O’Connell Sports Management have announced a three-year, $19.25MM contract extension that buys out all of his arbitration years (Twitter link). The Red Sox have announced the deal as well, which reportedly contains a club option for a fourth season.
The 28-year-old Miley, acquired from the Diamondbacks at the Winter Meetings in exchange for right-handers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.3MM in his first trip through arbitration this winter. He will reportedly receive a $500K signing bonus before earning $3.5MM in 2015, $6MM in 2016 and $8.75MM in 2017. His option is valued at $12MM and comes with a $500K buyout. Additionally, his deal contains $2MM worth of incentives that can boost the option’s value to $14MM. All told, Miley can earn up to $31MM over the next four years, if he reaches his incentives and the Red Sox exercise the option.
Formerly the No. 43 overall pick in the draft out of Southeastern Louisiana University, Miley first established himself as a rotation mainstay in the 2012 season, when he finished second to Bryce Harper in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Since claiming a place in the D-Backs’ rotation, Miley has pitched to a 3.74 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate. He’s also been exceptionally durable in that time, averaging an even 200 innings over the past three seasons.
By agreeing to the deal, Miley’s agents have secured him his first fortune in baseball without drastically delaying his free agency, whereas the Red Sox have received cost certainty that keeps Miley’s price tag reasonable even in the event of a breakout season. Miley will be eligible to hit free agency entering either his age-31 (if the option is declined) or age-32 season (if it exercised), which should present him with the opportunity to earn at least one more significant payday on top of this sum.
The structure of Miley’s deal is rare, though certainly not unheard of among players in his service class, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker. As the linked list shows, the most recent examples of such a structure include Chris Iannetta and Nick Hundley, but to find a pitcher who signed a three-year deal with a club option in his first year of arbitration eligibility, we have to go back to 2009, when Paul Maholm did so with the Pirates.
Miley will be counted on, along with newcomer Rick Porcello and the returning Justin Masterson, to help reshape a Red Sox rotation that will also feature Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly. That quintet, backed by a remade offense that includes the likes of Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez and Rusney Castillo, will be tasked with reversing the fortunes of a 2014 club that followed up a World Series victory with a last-place finish in the AL East.
The Boston Glober’s Alex Speier first reported that the contract included a club option (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today provided the financial breakdown (on Twitter).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Not So Minor Moves: A Closer Look At Minor League Deals
So often lost in much of the offseason discussion of $200MM+ contracts for the market’s top free agents and the drama of big names that linger on the open market too long is the slew of minor league signings that steadily trickle in from November through the end of Spring Training. To readers and writers alike, these transactions often become a footnote; at best, such transactions may capture our attention for a brief moment before the next major name signs or is rumored to be on the move. It’s easy, then, to overlook the amount of work that goes into such moves — unless, of course, you’re the agent negotiating the deal.
“Minor league deals are a lot of work,” agent Josh Kusnick said to MLBTR. “They’re not always easy to do. Some come together more quickly than others. There have been times in my career where a ball club will call me the minute free agency starts… They’ll make their offer, it’ll make sense, and then it’s done. But there are other situations where it’s dragged on for an entire year.”
As is the case with big league free agents, minor league free agents that linger on the open market into the New Year and late January can often find themselves facing uphill battles. In the case of veterans such as Gerald Laird, Wil Nieves and other recent players to sign minor league pacts, there will still be teams that are interested based on their Major League track record. However, that’s not always the case with less experienced players. Finding deals for players with limited (or zero) Major League experience becomes increasingly difficult as the winter wears on, and that problem can be even more complicated if the player is Latin American, as the process to secure a visa for those players is lengthy and can cause some clubs to shy away as Spring Training nears.
“It’s much easier to sign players with residency,” agent Rafael Godoy told MLBTR. Godoy, who primarily represents Latin American players, noted that some — particularly those with significant MLB experience — are desirable enough and get enough early interest that the timeline to get a visa isn’t problematic. However, due to the early age at which players from Venezuela and the Dominican Republic can sign, many become free agents at age-22 or age-23 without any Major League experience. If early interest in those players isn’t strong, their lack of experience and the length of the visa process can increase the difficulty of finding a good opportunity.
“You don’t really want to wait until the new year to get them all done,” said Godoy. Acquiring visas for players from Latin American countries requires a lot of paperwork and legwork, he explained. Teams will have to make appointments with the consulate in that player’s home country, account for constantly changing immigration rules and wait for a visa approval process following a meeting/interview in the foreign country. Even if a player has his passport and documentation in order, Godoy added, visas can be denied for a variety of reasons, delaying a player’s ability to arrive at camp on time. (Indeed, stories of players who are late to camp due to visa issues seem to permeate Spring Training each season.) Because of the length of the process, some teams will becoming increasingly reluctant to go down that road as Spring Training nears.
The potential for such delays is one reason that some teams will be less willing to embark on the visa journey as Spring Training nears. One agent told MLBTR that he’d once been informed by a team that he was fortunate his client had established U.S. citizenship over the course of his pro career, because they likely wouldn’t have given a look to a player that still needed a visa that late in the offseason.
Of course, an invitation to Major League Spring Training isn’t always a requirement. It may, sometimes, even be overrated, per one agent. Some teams give out Spring Training invites “like candy,” he continued, which will often result in a player getting demoted to minor league camp at the first or second cut.
Additional sticking points include opt-out clauses and, of course, money — be it monthly salary in the minors or the size of the Major League salary, should that player reach the bigs. Indeed, Kusnick said, in his experience, money is typically the determining factor. “The money, the guaranteed salary, that’s usually the part that’s the trickiest,” said Kusnick. Sometimes, he notes, the most money isn’t necessarily the best thing. “I’ve advised [minor league free agents] to take less money to go to a better situation,” said Kusnick, noting that a good opportunity to make a big league club can outweigh a better minor league payday. “No one wants to get rich in the minor leagues. They want to be big leaguers.”
Finding the right balance of guaranteed money and opportunity to make the big league roster is a difficult task, and there’s no guarantee that a player will listen to his agent’s advice in such situations. “Ultimately, it’s the player’s decision where he wants to play,” said one agent who has had clients return to familiar situations in the past despite better opportunities to make a Major League roster elsewhere. At that point, the agent said, Spring Training essentially becomes “a tryout” or audition of sorts… for the other 29 teams in the Majors, that is. In those situations, opt-out clauses for players with significant MLB service time become paramount, and refusal to include them (or only conceding an opt-out late in the regular season) is often a deal-breaker, even at the cost of a significant minor league salary.
However many complications an agent may encounter in seeking a non-guaranteed deal for his or her client, they all pale in comparison to the realization that a player simply will not find an opportunity with an affiliated club. Yet another agent described one unenviable task as the worst part about being an agent — having to sit a player down and tell him that teams simply aren’t interested anymore. “I try to be as straightforward and honest about it as I can,” he said, noting that not all players handle such devastating news as well as others.
Still, on the flip side of the equation, there are few moments that stick with agents quite like seeing a client successfully revive his career. Kusnick was elated by the resurgence of Jeremy Jeffress with the Brewers in the season’s final months. Kusnick recalls pitching a return to Milwaukee to Jeffress: “I said, ‘Can you imagine going back to Milwaukee, pitching down the stretch, fighting for a playoff spot, and 50,000 fans cheering for you after all you’ve been through?'” Jeffress not only resurfaced with the Brewers but thrived, and Kusnick called a dramatic eighth-inning strikeout of Buster Posey with the game on the line “the affirmation of everything that we could never have dreamed of when he took that job … the coolest moment of my career, by far.”
Marlins Win Arbitration Hearing Against Mat Latos
The Marlins have won their arbitration hearing against newly-acquired righty Mat Latos, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick was first to report (Twitter link). Latos had filed at $10.4MM but will instead receive the $9.4MM that Miami submitted.
Though he will not achieve his full asking price, Latos nevertheless receives a nice bump up over last year’s $7.25MM salary, which constituted the second-year of an extension signed with the Reds. He also lands a healthy margin above the MLBTR/Matt Swartz projection of $8.4MM.
All said, though the panel chose to go with the lower figure, Latos was obviously well-rewarded for a half-season of work last year. The 27-year-old missed time early and only made 16 starts, though he logged a healthy 102 1/3 frames in the process. That matched the pace he had set in the prior two seasons, when he notched better than 200 frames in over thirty outings.
Latos has produced uniformly excellent results. Over the last three seasons, he has not strayed from the 3.16 to 3.48 ERA range over a full season. While his strikeout totals dipped last year to 6.5 K/9, he held the free passes down to a career-low 2.3 per nine.

