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Brendan Rodgers Dislocates Left Shoulder

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Rockies second baseman Brendan Rodgers dislocated his left shoulder during today’s Cactus League matchup with the Rangers, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). The injury occurred in the first inning when Rodgers dove to knock down a Robbie Grossman grounder.

While a trainer popped the shoulder back into place on the field, Rodgers was immediately replaced by Cole Tucker. The severity of the injury isn’t yet known, though it’s clear he’ll miss at least a notable chunk of Spring Training. “We’ll likely know more what his status is in the coming day,” Black told reporters after the game. “The degree of trauma in the joint will determine how long he’s out. Hopefully, the trauma to the shoulder capsule is not too bad and he’s only out a few weeks.”

That an absence of a few weeks seems to be the best-case scenario puts Rodgers’ availability for Opening Day in jeopardy. Black likened the injury to one suffered by Colorado center fielder Yonathan Daza last summer. Daza was placed on the injured list on August 12 and reinstated on September 6. If Rodgers only misses a similar three-to-four week stretch, he could avoid an IL stint to start the season. That’d seemingly require a smooth recovery process without any serious damage, and even an ideal situation involves Rodgers missing a number of planned at-bats as players spend the next month getting reacclimated to game speed.

To the extent there’s a silver lining, it’s that the injury occurred to his non-throwing shoulder. During his 2019 rookie season, Rodgers underwent season-ending surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right shoulder. He also lost a few weeks during the abbreviated 2020 campaign to a capsular strain in his right shoulder. Today’s injury, at least, wasn’t to that previously troublesome joint.

It’s nevertheless a disappointing start to the upcoming season for the 26-year-old. He’s had stints on the IL in all four of his big league campaigns thus far thanks to right shoulder and hamstring concerns. Rodgers did appear in a personal-high 137 games last season, hitting .266/.325/.408 with 13 home runs, 30 doubles and a career-low 17.4% strikeout rate. After some initial struggles against big league pitching, he’s hit at a near average level the past couple seasons. Rodgers also rated favorably for his defense last year, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him a massive 22 runs above average at second base. Statcast and Ultimate Zone Rating weren’t enamored to the same extent but all three metrics agreed he was better than par.

If Rodgers were forced to start the year on the IL, the club could choose from a handful of utility types to step in as his replacement. Alan Trejo might have the leg up considering he’s already on the 40-man roster. Tucker and former Tiger Harold Castro are in camp as non-roster players. Presumptive starting third baseman Ryan McMahon also has ample experience at second base and could move back to the keystone if Colorado wanted to pencil in Nolan Jones or Elehuris Montero at the hot corner. McMahon is an elite defensive third baseman, though, so the Rox might be reluctant to move him off that position for anything more than spot duty.

Phillies, Rhys Hoskins Have Not Had Extension Talks

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Following the Phillies postseason run in 2022 which shocked the baseball world as they fell just two wins short of a World Series championship, the expectations surrounding the team have changed dramatically. Philadelphia followed up on its surprise run with a busy offseason, landing Trea Turner on an 11-year deal while bolstering the pitching staff with multiyear deals for Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm. The club also bolstered its bench and bullpen with one-year deals and trades, adding Josh Harrison and Kody Clemens to the club’s bench options while adding Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto to the late-inning mix.

In addition to external additions, the club has been active in extending both players and personnel. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski, GM Sam Fuld, and relievers Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado have all been extended since the postseason concluded. The club has reportedly exchanged offers with ace right-hander Aaron Nola as well, indicating a desire from every corner of the Phillies organization to keep this group together for the foreseeable future. Despite this apparent desire, however, Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb report at The Athletic that longtime Phillie Rhys Hoskins may not be part of those plans, as the club and Hoskins have yet to begin extension talks.

Hoskins, 30 next month, is set to become a free agent following the 2023 season. The slugger came up through the minor leagues as a first baseman, but spent the early part of his major league career primarily playing left field in deference to Carlos Santana before returning to the cold corner following a trade that sent Santana to Seattle. Wherever he’s played the field throughout his career, however, Hoskins has always hit: in six seasons a big leaguer, Hoskins has never finished a campaign with a wRC+ below his 2019 figure of 112, or 12% better than league average.

For his career, Hoskins is a 125 wRC+ hitter with a slash line of .242/.353/.492 and 304 extra base hits in 667 games. While Hoskins strikes out at an elevated clip (25.1% in 2022), he more than makes up for that deficiency with his proclivity for drawing free passes. Hoskins boasts a 13.5% career walk rate and even as his walk rate has ticked downward in recent years, his 10.7% rate in 2022 still ranked in the 80th percentile of all qualified hitters, per Statcast.

As Rosenthal and Gelb note, the market for first basemen this past offseason would indicate that Hoskins could aim for a deal in the $20MM AAV range on the open market. That’s above what Josh Bell received from the Guardians but right in line with what Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu received from the Yankees and Astros, respectively. Bell is younger than Hoskins but lacks his track record of consistency and opted for a short term deal that would allow him to return to the open market following the 2023 season. Rizzo and Abreu, meanwhile, have stronger overall resumes to this point in their careers, but are several years older than Hoskins, meaning their current contracts are set to take them into their mid-to-late thirties.

While an AAV in the range of $20MM might be a reasonable estimate for Hoskins on the open market, it’s understandable why the Phillies may be hesitant to make such a commitment. After all, the club already features Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos as defensively-limited sluggers on high dollar contracts, and it’s possible that Bryce Harper, whose work in the outfield defensive metrics had largely soured on in recent years even before his Tommy John surgery last November, could be viewed similarly as he enters his thirties. With each of those sluggers locked up through at least 2025, it would hardly be a surprise if Dombrowski’s front office decided that the resources required to retain Hoskins would be better utilized elsewhere, such as in extending Nola.

Should Hoskins hit the market, he seems poised to be among the best bats of a 2023-24 free agent class that lacks much position playing star power outside of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. Fellow corner slugger Teoscar Hernandez and Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman are among the other players headed towards the open market. That being said, barring a significant downturn in performance from Hoskins in 2023, he seems like a prime candidate to be tendered a Qualifying Offer by the Phillies in order to recoup some value should he sign elsewhere. As a team paying into the luxury tax, the Phillies would receive a 2024 draft pick after the fourth round as compensation for any qualified free agent who signs elsewhere in the coming offseason.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks went into the offseason marketing a surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders. After a few months of rumors, they pulled off their anticipated massive swap, landing one of the sport’s best catching prospects in the process. That was the biggest move, though the Snakes also supplemented their position player mix and made a trio of additions to the relief corps as they push for legitimate playoff contention.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The past few seasons haven’t gone well for the Diamondbacks. Arizona limped to last-place finishes in 2020-21, followed by a fourth-place showing last year. They partially compensated with a run of what appear to be strong draft classes. They never intended to enter a rebuild but the past few seasons have essentially functioned as such.

Over the final few months of last season, the young talent the organization had built in the pipeline began to translate to improved MLB results. Arizona was a roughly league average team in the second half, still shy of contention but quite a bit better than their previous few seasons. General manager Mike Hazen and his front office headed into the offseason with more clarity about the team’s strengths and weaknesses.

No spot on the roster was a more obvious plus than the outfield. Arizona had seen Daulton Varsho emerge as a productive regular. Top prospect Corbin Carroll debuted in late August and hit the ground running against MLB pitching. Jake McCarthy posted an impressive .283/.342/.427 showing in 99 games during his first extended big league action. Alek Thomas didn’t have the same level of success, though he’s highly regarded by prospect evaluators for his contact skills and center field defense.

Hazen indicated the team would field offers on that outfield glut, with four interesting and controllable left-handed bats who could appeal to other teams. Adding right-handed balance to the lineup and potentially upgrading over Carson Kelly at catcher were highlighted as priorities, while the front office implied they’d scour numerous avenues to upgrade a bullpen that was again among the league’s worst.

By and large, Arizona eventually checked off every item on that to-do list. The most straightforward path to achieving their position player ends would be to bring in a right-handed catcher with plus offensive upside. Arizona was unsurprisingly connected to Sean Murphy before the A’s sent him to Atlanta. While they missed out on Murphy, the Snakes eventually pulled off their catching addition in that long-awaited trade of an outfielder.

Varsho was the player who ended up the odd man out. A Gold Glove caliber defender who hit 27 home runs in 2022, he was one of the most appealing targets on this offseason’s trade market considering his four remaining seasons of arbitration control. The outfield-needy Blue Jays always looked like a strong on-paper fit considering their surplus of right-handed hitting catchers. Toronto had seemed likely to move one of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or top prospect Gabriel Moreno for some time, and things finally coalesced just before Christmas.

The D-Backs sent Varsho to Toronto for Moreno and corner outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Controllable for six seasons, Moreno is one of the game’s top young catching talents. He hit .315/.386/.420 with a meager 16.9% strikeout rate in 267 Triple-A plate appearances at age 22 last season. That earned him a brief MLB look, in which he posted a .319/.356/.377 line with only eight strikeouts in 73 trips to the dish.

There’s some question about how much power impact Moreno will make, but he’s an elite contact hitter with no concerns about his ability to stick behind the plate. Even if he only hits 10 home runs annually, his high batting averages and on-base numbers should make him one of the game’s best offensive catchers. He’ll push Kelly into a reserve role.

While Moreno was the key piece of the deal on Arizona’s end, they somewhat backfilled the outfield subtraction with Gurriel’s inclusion. While he’s certainly a downgrade from Varsho — particularly on defense — Gurriel is a low-variance everyday player. He’s coming off a .291/.343/.400 showing in 121 games. He only connected on five home runs during his final season in Toronto but has twice reached the 20-homer plateau in his career.

Gurriel offers above-average contact skills and typically shows decent power. He rarely walks and is limited to the corner outfield or DH after an early-career experiment in the infield didn’t pan out. While he’s a flawed player, Gurriel can hit and adds another right-handed presence to the lineup. He’s headed into the final season of his contract and will be a free agent at year’s end, meaning he’d be a straightforward trade candidate if the D-Backs aren’t contending midseason.

He’s not the only right-handed hitting outfielder the Snakes brought in via trade. Before the Varsho swap, Arizona rolled the dice on 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. It was a one-for-one deal that sent catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel to Seattle. Lewis has had a disastrous past couple seasons, with persistent right knee issues keeping him to just 54 combined games since the start of 2021. A former first-round pick and top prospect, Lewis hit .262/.364/.437 for Seattle during the shortened season. His health has been a question mark since he tore his ACL in a home plate collision within months of being drafted. Still, Lewis remains just 27 years old and won’t be counted upon for everyday work in the Arizona outfield.

Gurriel and Lewis provide matchup options in right field and at DH. Left field belongs to Carroll, who is a consensus top three prospect. Arizona has already looked into the possibility of extending him beyond his allotted six seasons of control in what could be one of the club’s more interesting storylines this spring. Thomas and McCarthy can each play center field, with the latter assured of regular run somewhere after his quality debut campaign.

The D-Backs added another righty-swinging designated hitter option via free agency. 15-year MLB veteran Evan Longoria signed a $4MM deal to split time between third base and DH. He’s obviously no longer the star he was at his peak, but Longoria has continued to hit at an above-average level into his late-30s. Injuries have cost him almost half the last two seasons. He’s best suited for a part-time or platoon role at this stage of his career and that’s likely to be the capacity in which he operates.

Left-handed hitting Josh Rojas should get the lion’s share of at-bats at the hot corner. Rojas is a good hitter with some defensive flexibility but isn’t a great gloveman anywhere. He’s an adequate if below-average third baseman, and his contact and baserunning skills make him a solid player overall.

He’ll presumably be playing alongside Nick Ahmed on most days. A two-time Gold Glove winner, Ahmed is still one of the sport’s preeminent defensive infielders. He’s never contributed much offensively and lost virtually all of 2022 to shoulder surgery. Arizona at least monitored the market for shortstop upgrades — including a loose link to Xander Bogaerts that always felt like a long shot — but ultimately completed the offseason without an addition there. Ahmed will be back and should take the job from Geraldo Perdomo, who didn’t perform well over a long look with Ahmed out last season. Still just 23, Perdomo could be in line for more time at Triple-A.

The other side of the second base bag is clearly defined. Ketel Marte will be back at the keystone. Christian Walker had a massive second half performance to seize hold of first base. Arizona brought in Diego Castillo in a minor trade with Pittsburgh to add some insurance in the middle infield. He figures to start the season in a utility role or in the minors.

Arizona took a volume approach to address their other offseason priority: the bullpen. They eschewed the top of the free agent market and brought in half of what figures to be their Opening Day group via lower-cost means. They started by claiming Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins, taking a buy-low flier on a pitcher who’d found success with Baltimore in 2021 before a disappointing year in South Florida.

That was followed by a series of value plays in free agency. Veteran righty Miguel Castro inked a one-year, $3.75MM guarantee with a ’24 vesting/player option. He’s a generally stable middle relief option, a pitcher who typically works to an ERA around 4.00 with solid strikeout and grounder rates but wobbly control. A couple weeks later, Arizona took a more unexpected dice roll on 33-year-old Scott McGough. The right-hander has just six MLB appearances — all of which came with the 2015 Marlins — and has spent the last four years in Japan. He posted a 2.94 ERA in 232 2/3 innings over four seasons with NPB’s Yakult Swallows and evidently impressed Arizona evaluators along the way.

McGough proved to be the organization’s only multi-year free agent signee of the offseason. His two-year, $6.25MM pact is still a relatively low-risk move, though it’s tough to project whether he can take on high-leverage innings in Torey Lovullo’s bullpen until seeing him against big league competition for the first time in almost a decade.

There shouldn’t be any such questions regarding Arizona’s final bullpen addition. Old friend Andrew Chafin looked like one of the top left-handed relief arms on the free agent market. He opted out of the final $6.5MM on his contract with the Tigers and seemed likely to find a strong multi-year pact after a second straight excellent season. For whatever reason, that apparently never materialized. Chafin lingered alongside a handful of other quality southpaws deep into the offseason until Arizona swooped in with a $6.25MM guarantee. The D-Backs also secured a 2024 option on what looks like a strong deal for the club, one that reinstalls a familiar face into key late-inning work.

Chafin, Castro, Sulser and McGough are presumably all going to open the season in the MLB bullpen. They’ll join left-hander Joe Mantiply, who had a breakout 2022 showing. Righty Kevin Ginkel presumably has a middle innings job secured after a quietly strong finish to the ’22 season. Mark Melancon is headed into the second season of a two-year free agent deal that didn’t pan out as hoped in year one. He’s no longer assured of the closer’s role; Lovullo has already indicated he could take a committee approach to the ninth inning early in the season (link via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Still, Melancon will presumably be on the roster in some capacity as the team looks for a bounceback from the four-time All-Star.

That only leaves a spot or two in the early going for depth types like Kyle Nelson, Corbin Martin, trade acquisition Carlos Vargas or non-roster Spring Training invitees like Jeurys Familia, Austin Brice, Austin Adams, Jandel Gustave, Ryan Hendrix and Sam Clay. There’ll obviously be some attrition in that group — injuries, workload management or underperformance will necessitate changes to the bullpen mix throughout the coming months — but the organization has stockpiled a little more relief depth than they’ve had in prior seasons.

The D-Backs didn’t need to do as much to build out the starting staff. Zac Gallen is a legitimate #1 starter. There’s no indication the sides have discussed an extension. It wouldn’t be surprising if the front office gauged his interest in signing beyond his remaining three years of arbitration control at some point. Merrill Kelly is a solid mid-rotation type behind him, even if his lack of swing-and-miss stuff could make it difficult to sustain a 3.37 ERA. There’s not a ton of certainty behind that duo, though the Snakes have a handful of options who could fill out the back of the staff. Zach Davies had a fine if unexciting season at the back of the rotation last year. He’s back after re-signing on a modest $4MM free agent deal and will hold one of the season-opening rotation spots.

Madison Bumgarner had similar production as Davies last season, albeit at a much higher price point. His five-year, $85MM free agent contract has been a major disappointment. Bumgarner has been a durable source of innings but hasn’t come close to reestablishing himself as the top-of-the-rotation starter he was throughout his time in San Francisco. In October, Hazen implied that Bumgarner’s veteran status would get him another shot in the rotation but indicated the club could eventually go in another direction as performance dictates.

Whether that happens might depend as much on Arizona’s younger pitchers than on Bumgarner himself. Righties Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson look set to battle for the fifth spot this spring after each debuted late last season. Brandon Pfaadt has yet to reach the majors but is arguably more highly-regarded by evaluators than either Nelson or Jameson are. He pitched very well over ten Triple-A starts to close out last season and could be on the radar for a big league call early in the upcoming campaign. Tommy Henry and former high draft choices Blake Walston and Slade Cecconi headline the depth options behind that group.

There’s room for the club to still look into a veteran on a minor league deal to add some stability to the upper levels. Clearly, the main organizational hope is that higher-upside hurlers like Nelson and Pfaadt will perform well enough in the early going to cement themselves in the rotation. Should they do so, that could lead the organization to consider bumping Bumgarner or Davies from the group. Early on, however, Arizona figures to retain as much depth as they can given the inherent risk in counting on any pitching prospect to assume a large role on a team with playoff aspirations.

Whether the Diamondbacks have legitimate reason to hope for a postseason spot is debatable. The pitching staff, while improved, still looks a little light relative to those of most contenders. The club has question marks on the left side of the infield, particularly at shortstop. They’re in a gauntlet of a division, one where the ever-competitive Dodgers and ultra aggressive Padres will be projected 1-2 in some order by most observers. Arizona looks to have clearly pulled away from Colorado at the bottom of the division. It remains to be seen whether they can both leapfrog the Giants and hang in the Wild Card mix for a full season.

Even if a playoff berth looks like a long shot, there’s more reason for immediate optimism than has existed in some time. The core of the next competitive Arizona team is beginning to take shape, and the farm system should remain among the league’s best even after Moreno and Carroll graduate. Top prospects like Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones are still a few seasons out, but it’s easy for the organization and its fans to dream about them eventually joining Moreno, Carroll, Marte and perhaps a young pitcher or two in comprising a group that can annually battle the behemoths at the top of the division.

In conjunction with the D-Backs’ Offseason In Review, Anthony Franco held a team-specific chat on March 2. Click here to view the transcript.

How would you grade the D-Backs offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

Marlins Notes: Puk, Scott, Nance, Brazoban, Gurriel

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The Marlins are dealing with various small injuries throughout their spring camp, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

The slate of injuries include three relievers. Left-hander A.J. Puk has some tightness in the adductor muscle of his left leg, fellow lefty Tanner Scott is dealing with slight discomfort in his left biceps, while Tommy Nance has discomfort in his right shoulder. Puk and Scott are playing catch today but Nance will be reevaluated in a couple of days. “I’m not too concerned,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said to Jackson and Mish. “If it was a starter who had to get built up, that’s a whole different story. But the relievers, I think that’s a little easier.”

Puk, just acquired from the A’s a few weeks ago, was once one of  the top prospects in the league but has struggled to stay healthy. Shoulder issues prevented him from making an appearance in 2020 and he struggled in 2021. He bounced back nicely last year, however, posting a 3.12 ERA over 62 appearances.

Scott was acquired from the Orioles a year ago and had a solid season for Miami, despite some control issues. He walked 15.9% of batters faced but struck out 31.1% and got grounders at a 46.3% clip. Nance was claimed off waivers from the Cubs about a year ago and registered a 4.33 ERA in 43 2/3 innings last year. He struck out 29.1% of opponents while walking 10.7%, also getting grounders at a strong 46.4% rate.

There’s also one other hiccup in the club’s bullpen, as Huascar Brazobán has yet to report to camp due to a visa issue. However, the issue has been resolved and Brazobán should be leaving the Dominican Republic for the United States tomorrow. The righty was a nice story last year, making his major league debut at the age of 32. He tossed 32 innings with a 3.09 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 14.9% walk rate and 49.4% ground ball rate.

All in all, it seems like a pile of minor issues scattered throughout the bullpen, but they are situations worth monitoring with only about four weeks until Opening Day.

Leaving aside the bullpen, the club has been connected to free agent Yuli Gurriel multiple times this offseason. The most recent reporting indicated they offered him a $2MM deal at one point but took that offer the table when a week went by without a response. Today, Jackson and Mish report that the club is still willing to bring Gurriel into camp as a non-roster invitee if he’s interested.

The fact that a minor league deal hasn’t yet come to fruition suggests that Gurriel is perhaps still holding out for a major league pact. Garrett Cooper is penciled in as the club’s first baseman but he’s dealt with various injuries in his career and it makes sense that the Fish would look to add some depth behind him. Gurriel was a batting champ as recently as 2021 but he’s now entering his age-39 season and is coming off a rough campaign. He hit just .242/.288/.360 last year for a wRC+ of 85, indicating he was 15% worse than the league average hitter.

If Gurriel continues to linger on the market, the Marlins could potentially contact other first base options. The free agent market still features other bounceback candidates like Miguel Sanó and Mike Moustakas.

NL Central Notes: Taylor, Cubs, Reynolds, Chandler

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Tyrone Taylor’s recovery from an elbow sprain isn’t going as well as hoped, Brewers manager Craig Counsell tells Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The team first revealed Taylor’s injury last week and said Taylor would miss at least the first two weeks of spring games, but a more pessimistic update with games already underway clouds the 28-year-old’s readiness for Opening Day.

“We’re not any closer,” Counsell said. “As we move on here, we’re starting to be concerned for sure because we want to get him started and he’s not doing any baseball activities, and we don’t have any on the horizon.”

Taylor, 29, hit .233/.286/.442 through a career-high 405 plate appearances last season, showing plenty of pop and a good glove across all three outfield spots, which helped to offset an OBP that ranked 181st among the 205 players who tallied at least 400 plate appearances. Taylor’s right-handed bat, on paper anyway, pairs nicely with lefty-swinging outfielders like Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker and Garrett Mitchell. If the club wants to keep a right-handed bat in the outfield mix, offseason signee Brian Anderson could move from third base into right field, freeing some early time for Luis Urias at third base. Prospect Brice Turang could take second base if he makes the team, but Abraham Toro and Owen Miller could also see some time at the keystone.

There’s plenty of versatility for the Brewers to mix-and-match on the roster, which has been a hallmark of their clubs in recent seasons. Milwaukee still hasn’t provided a firm update as to when Taylor might realistically be able to get back into a game, but with Opening Day just over a month away and rehab not progressing well, an IL stint to begin the season is possible.

A few more notes from the division…

  • The Cubs haven’t provided a clear timetable for how long Seiya Suzuki’s strained oblique might keep him out of action — though the injury is notable enough that Suzuki has withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic. However, even in the event of some missed time, free agent Jurickson Profar isn’t a likely option for the Cubs, writes Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The team is about $8MM shy of the $233MM luxury-tax barrier and doesn’t seem particularly inclined to cross it at this time, per Mooney, who adds that any remaining resources are likelier to be allocated to the bullpen or be earmarked for potential midseason upgrades on the trade market. If the Cubs are still pondering another addition in the bullpen, some of the top names remaining include Zack Britton, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Corey Knebel.
  • Imaging on Matt Reynolds revealed a Grade 1 strain in both of the infielder’s quadriceps muscles, Reds skipper David Bell told reporters (Twitter link). Despite the pair of ailments, Reynolds is only expected to be sidelined for a few days, so he should still be in the running for a bench spot on the Cincinnati roster to begin the season. The 32-year-old appeared in a career-high 93 games for the Reds in 2022 and slashed .246/.320/.332 in 272 plate appearances while appearing at every position on the diamond other than catcher.
  • Pirates prospect Bubba Chandler has been told that he will strictly be a pitcher this year, per Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline. A third round draft pick in 2021, he’s been playing both sides of the ball so far in his professional career. He tossed 41 1/3 innings in the minors last year with a 2.61 ERA, striking out 34.7% of batters faced while walking 16.2%. At the plate, however, he hit just .196/.331/.382, walking in 16.1% of his trips to the plate but getting punched out 33.1% of the time. It seems a return to hitting down the line hasn’t been ruled out, but he’ll focus on his mound work for the time being.

Marlins To Sign Richard Rodríguez To Minor League Deal

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The Marlins informed reporters, including Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, that they have agreed to terms on a minor league deal with right-hander Richard Rodríguez. The reliever will receive a non-roster invitation to camp.

Rodríguez, who turns 33 later this week, has had quite a rollercoaster experience in the past few years. With the Pirates in 2018, he seemed to break out by posting a 2.47 ERA over 69 1/3 innings, striking out 31.5% of batters faced. The next year, his strikeouts dipped to 22.1% and his ERA jumped to 3.72. He got back on track in the shortened 2020 season with an incredible 36.6% strikeout rate, helping him drop his ERA down to 2.70.

In 2021, his strikeouts dried up again, dropping down to 22.8% in his time with the Pirates. He still managed to keep runs off the board, with his ERA at 2.82 when he was dealt to Atlanta. His strikeouts got even further away from him after the jersey switch, as he only punched out 8.5% of batters with Atlanta. He managed to post a 3.12 ERA in that time, but that was largely thanks to a .200 batting average on balls in play and 97.1% strand rate, with both of those numbers being unsustainably fortunate.

Rodríguez could have been retained for a couple more seasons via arbitration, but Atlanta looked past his low ERAs and decided to non-tender him prior to the 2022 campaign. While a free agent, he was given an 80-game suspension after testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance Boldenone. Once that suspension was served, he joined the Yankees on a minor league deal. He eventually posted a 3.96 ERA in 25 minor league innings, striking out 25.5% of batters faced.

For the Marlins, this is a no-risk move since they’re bringing Rodríguez into the fold without committing a roster spot to him. The last two seasons have been up-and-down for the righty but he’s not far removed from being a dominant bullpen arm in the big leagues. If he cracks the roster at some point, he still has a full slate of options and just over four years of service time, meaning the Marlins could keep him around if he returns to form. Rodríguez will try to crack a bullpen that features intriguing hurlers such as Dylan Floro, Tanner Scott, Matt Barnes, A.J. Puk and others.

Pirates Exploring Different Outfield Alignments

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In yesterday’s spring game, the Pirates tried an outfield alignment of Bryan Reynolds in left, Jack Suwinski in center and Andrew McCutchen in right. Spring Training is a natural time for teams to experiment, but it seems like this is something the club could consider for the regular season as well. “I think that’s something we could see, depending on what we do with ‘Cutch’ in terms of being on the field but I definitely think we could see Jack in center and Bryan in left,” manager Derek Shelton said, per Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “We saw, and we talked about last year that (Suwinski) became a better outfielder as the season went on at the major-league level. I think we’re going to continue to get a look at that.”

It seems this is something the players are all on board with, as they are all quoted by Gorman as supporting the potential plan. “I’ve talked with them and that’s going to be probably a mix of both, probably a little more left than center, I guess,” Reynolds said. “I think I grade out better in left, anyway, so that’ll be better for everybody. In the past, I’ve been good in left.” Center field is generally considered the most demanding of the three outfield positions, but PNC Park in Pittsburgh is a little unique in that the deepest part is actually in left-center.

Reynolds saw more time in left in 2019 and 2020 before spending most of his time in center over the past two seasons. The defensive metrics are a split on whether Reynolds is correct that he grades out better in left. Ultimate Zone Rating has generally not given him strong marks anywhere, while Outs Above Average thought him to be exactly average in left in 2019-2020 before a +10 in center in 2021 but then a -7 there in 2022. Defensive Runs Saved is the metric that is most aligned with Reynolds’ self assessment. It gave him a +7 in left over his first two seasons but a -19 in center over the past two. All three metrics were in agreement that he was subpar in center last year, with a -14 DRS, -2.6 UZR and -7 OAA.

Reynolds has been frequently the subject of trade rumors over the past few years, as he’s been playing at an All-Star level on a rebuilding team. A deal hasn’t come together yet with the Pirates apparently putting forth a huge asking price in any trade talks. Moving Reynolds from the premier center field position and into a corner potentially decreases his trade value, but with all the metrics souring on his work up the middle in 2022, perhaps there’s sense in moving him to the less-demanding position at least part of the time. Either way, his bat will still play, as he’s hit .281/.361/.481 for his career even with a nightmare showing in the shortened 2020 campaign. That production is 26% above league average by measure of wRC+, and he’s capable of more, producing a 141 wRC+ in 2021.

While Reynolds arguably fits better in left than in center, moving him to left will require Suwinski to be a viable option in center. That’s not a position where he has spent a ton of time, either in the majors or the minors, getting much more action in the corners. He did log 107 innings up the middle in the majors last year and was graded well, including positive grades from all three of DRS, UZR and OAA. Statcast placed his sprint speed in the 84th percentile but his jumps in the 42nd. These are small sample sizes but perhaps the Bucs feel that more reps at the position could lead to him being a viable candidate there, making this spring experiment a worthwhile path to explore.

Another issue for Suwinski will be his bat. He hit 19 home runs in just 372 plate appearances last year but also struck out in 30.6% of his trips to the plate. He’s generally been able to combine power and on-base ability in the minors, even with high strikeout rates, to be an above-average hitter. Perhaps he can keep that up at the big league level, but pitchers will likely be looking for different ways to attack him in his sophomore season and he will need to adjust.

As for McCutchen, he seems to be ticketed for right field, which he calls “the easiest position to play” at PNC Park. He’s the oldest of the trio at 36, but his sprint speed was still in the 90th percentile last year. He’ll be tasked with covering the smallest part of the outfield in Pittsburgh, though he will have to deal with the tall wall in right. “I’ve seen enough baseballs hit off that wall to know what balls may do and know the ones I’ve got to watch out for,” McCutchen said. “I know that when it goes above that fence (and caroms) off that little bit of wall there, I have to make sure I’m far enough away so I can get to it (because) that’s when you see those triples happen. They don’t happen a lot, but they happen. You do your best just to get the ball. It’s pretty simple. I don’t overthink it. I know what I’ve got to do.”

The Bucs have other outfield options on their 40-man, such as Ji Hwan Bae, Connor Joe and Calvin Mitchell and others, though it seems like this alignment with Suwinski heavily involved is at the forefront of their plans. “He’ll be fine doing it,” Reynolds said. “We’ll just work through it in spring, with him communicating in center versus me in center and getting to know each other in the new positions.” McCutchen also voiced his confidence in the plan. “Us having the understanding of who the center fielder is, what a center fielder does, we know that he has priority,” McCutchen said. “So, it’s me letting Jack know, ‘The ball is yours, regardless. When the ball goes up, it’s yours. If the ball is in the gap and I’m iffy on whether I can catch it, you should be catching that ball.’”

Padres Extend Manny Machado Through 2033

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Feb. 28: The Padres have announced Machado’s new 11-year contract. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that Machado will receive a $45MM signing bonus that’ll be spread out over the 11-year duration of the contract. He’ll be paid $13MM in each of the next three seasons, $21MM in 2026 and then $35MM per season from 2027-33.

In the short term, the backloaded nature of the contract and the distributed/deferred nature of the signing bonus will provide San Diego with some additional payroll flexibility, though the year-to-year structure of the deal doesn’t impact the luxury tax hit, which is still purely based on the contract’s average annual value. That said, the lower salaries up front will dovetail both with Juan Soto’s remaining club control (through 2024) and with the eventual decrease in salary on Yu Darvish’s more frontloaded extension.

Feb. 26: Manny Machado isn’t going anywhere. The star third baseman was planning to opt out of his contract after the season but will instead stick around, as Machado and the Padres are reportedly finalizing a new 11-year, $350MM contract. The extension begins this year and will run through the 2033 campaign, which will be Machado’s age-40 season. He gets full no-trade protection and the deal does not contain any opt-outs. Since Machado had six years and $180MM remaining on his previous deal, this new agreement will add five years and $170MM in new money for the MVP Sports Group client.

Machado, 30, initially signed a 10-year, $300MM deal with the Padres going into 2019, with that deal affording him the ability to opt-out after five years. That opt-out was looming at the end of the upcoming season and multiple factors made it seem like an easy decision for Machado. For one thing, he has continued to produce at an elite level, including a 2022 season that was perhaps his best yet. He hit 32 home runs and stole nine bases last year, finishing the season with a .298/.366/.531 batting line. His 152 wRC+ indicates he was 52% better than the league average hitter. He was also graded as eight Outs Above Average at third base, with his overall contributions leading to a tally of 7.4 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs.

In addition to that, the market for elite players has been quite strong this winter, with many players going deep into nine-figure territory. Aaron Judge got a $360MM guarantee, Trea Turner got $300MM, Xander Bogaerts $280MM, Dansby Swanson $177MM, Carlos Rodón $162MM, Jacob deGrom $185MM and Brandon Nimmo $162MM. Since Machado was going to have five years and $150MM remaining on his deal at the end of this year, taking the opt-out was the clear choice from a financial perspective and Machado was quite open about his plans to take that path.

It was reported earlier this month that the Padres were planning to get an extension done with Machado to prevent him from opting out, though the talks seemed to be in jeopardy as recently as a week ago. It was reported at that time that Machado’s camp had set a February 16 deadline for negotiations, after which point he would prefer to put contract talks aside to focus on baseball. The club apparently offered to add five years and $105MM to his deal, which was not enough to get pen on paper. With the deadline having passed, it seemed possible that the season would begin with the uncertainty lingering, though reports on Friday indicated that the discussions were continuing. It seems as though the Friars bumped up their offer enough to get Machado’s reps back to the table and hammered out a deal.

This will add another hefty salary to the long-term books of a San Diego club that has become surprisingly aggressive in recent years. They had never been among the game’s biggest spenders but have changed that reputation recently. In addition to Machado’s contract, they also gave out big deals to Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and others. The exact breakdown of Machado’s deal isn’t yet known, but these hefty and lengthy deals mean that the club will have something in the vicinity of $100MM on the books for 2028 already.

That increased spending has launched the club into luxury tax territory, having paid the competitive balance tax in each of the past two seasons. They are sure to do so again here in 2023, having been hovering around the third tier of $273MM in recent weeks. Recent reporting indicated that the club was narrowly below that line but it’s possible this deal might nudge them over for now. The CBT uses a deal’s average annual value rather than the salary in a given year, meaning we can figure Machado’s tax hit without knowing the full breakdown of the new deal. His previous deal came with a $30MM hit but this new one has an AAV of $31.81MM. Roster Resource now calculates the club’s tax number at $273.3MM. Those calculations are unofficial but given the previous reports about how close the club was to the line, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were indeed a hair over now.

A club’s CBT status isn’t calculated until the end of the season, but given that the Padres are clearly in win-now mode, they will likely be in pursuit of upgrades at the trade deadline this summer. That means they are more likely to see their CBT number increase rather than decrease throughout the season. If they indeed finish up on the north side of that $273MM line, they will face increased rates of taxation but will also see their top pick in the 2024 draft pushed back by ten spots. It seems that owner Peter Seidler is more than willing to pay those penalties as part of making the Padres a competitive club both now and into the future.

For the any clubs that had hopes of making a run at Machado next winter, they will have to come up with other plans for next winter. Machado will no longer be a part of the 2023-2024 free agent class, which will be headlined by Shohei Ohtani and will also feature players like Aaron Nola, Julio Urías and Matt Chapman. For the Padres, they won’t have to worry about filling a vacancy at third base, with Machado now locked in for next season and another decade after that.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the sides were finalizing a new 11-year deal worth $350MM. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the deal begins in 2023. Dennis Lin and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic first reported that there are no opt-outs and that Machado has full no-trade protection (Twitter links).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Seiya Suzuki Diagnosed With “Moderate” Oblique Strain

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The Cubs announced Tuesday that an MRI revealed a “moderate” left oblique strain for right fielder Seiya Suzuki. The 28-year-old has already withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic, but it’s not yet clear how much time he’ll be expected to miss.

Chicago has taken a strangely vague approach to Suzuki’s injury status, declining to delve into specifics on the strain (i.e. Grade 1, Grade 2). The team originally announced Sunday that Suzuki was being hampered by tightness in his left oblique and was slated for some imaging, with the expectation that an update would be provided yesterday. Instead, manager David Ross demurred Monday and told reporters that the Cubs remained in “wait-and-see” mode. Today’s update, outside of acknowledging a strain, offers no further clarity on the severity of the injury or a potential timeline for Suzuki to return to the field. At this juncture, it’s not clear whether the team expects him to open the season on the injured list.

Suzuki, 28, is headed into the second season of a five-year, $85MM contract signed last winter. He enjoyed a strong, albeit injury-shortened debut campaign in MLB last year, appearing in 111 games and batting .262/.336/.433 with 14 home runs, 22 doubles, a pair of triples, nine steals, a 9.4% walk rate and a 24.7% strikeout rate. Suzuki missed more than a month with a finger injury and was also away from the club while on the paternity list. His production was particularly stout in the season’s first and final months, but the end-of-year output clocked in about 16% better than that of a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+.

The Cubs’ options in right field, should Suzuki miss time, consist of utilitymen Christopher Morel and Zach McKinstry; corner infielders Trey Mancini and Patrick Wisdom (who has 199 big league innings of outfield work), minor leaguers Nelson Velazquez, Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario (all on the 40-man roster); and non-roster invitees Mike Tauchman and Ben DeLuzio (among others). Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger are expected to hold down left field and center field, respectively.

As Patrick Mooney of The Athletic points out, Ross had specifically mentioned Wisdom as an option in right field if Suzuki is sidelined. Wisdom himself was scratched from yesterday’s Cactus League game due to tightness in his groin, but he’s back in the lineup for today’s game.

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