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Graham Ashcraft

Andrew Abbott To Begin Season On Injured List

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Reds manager Terry Francona provided members of the media, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, updates on the club’s pitching plans to start the season. Left-hander Andrew Abbott will start the season on the injured list. That will allow right-hander Carson Spiers to have a rotation spot to start the year. Meanwhile, righty Graham Ashcraft will head to the bullpen. Fellow righty Lyon Richardson has been optioned to Triple-A, per a club announcement from earlier today.

Sheldon emphasizes that Abbott hasn’t experienced a setback, just that the Reds have been moving him along gradually. At the start of camp, about a month ago, Abbott relayed that he was a bit behind schedule, taking things slowly after he finished 2024 on the injured list due to a shoulder strain. He thought he still had a chance to be ready by Opening Day but Francona said the club wouldn’t rush him to just meet that specific target.

“I don’t even think about that just because I think that’s where you make mistakes, when you put an artificial deadline,” Francona said last month. “We’re going to do what’s right for every player. If somebody isn’t ready, whether it’s him or somebody else, we’ll figure out a way to make it work until they’re ready.”

That thinking still seems to be the plan. Rather than try to force Abbott to be ready for the first week of April, they will just let him be ready whenever he’s ready. Since it seems to have been sort of a borderline call, perhaps he will only miss a very short time. IL stints can be backdated by three days, even at the start of the season, meaning he could be back as soon as 12 days into the campaign.

For now, the club will proceed without Abbott. Four rotation spots will be taken by Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo and Nick Martinez. As mentioned, the fifth will go to Spiers, who posted a 5.46 earned run average in a swing role last year. For what it’s worth, his numbers have been good in camp. He’s allowed three earned runs in 10 innings, with ten punchouts and four walks.

He likely won’t have a firm grip on a rotation spot. As mentioned, Abbott could return fairly quickly. The Reds also have Richardson and Connor Phillips as healthy options on the 40-man. Rhett Lowder is another, although he was slowed by elbow soreness early in camp and has an uncertain status at the moment. Prospect Chase Petty isn’t on the roster but should be in the Triple-A rotation and pushing for a promotion this year. Spiers has options and could be pushed to Triple-A himself at some point, or perhaps to the bullpen.

As for Ashcraft, he’s generally been a passable back-end starter of the ground ball variety. In 60 starts over the past three seasons, he has a 4.91 ERA. His 16.6% strikeout rate is subpar but his 7.6% walk rate is good and he’s kept 50.2% of balls in play on the dirt.

It was reported earlier in camp that the club had some hope that Ashcraft could thrive in a bullpen role. Per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, Ashcraft said today that he’s excited about the move, hoping that his stuff plays up in shorter stints. His fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, cutter) have generally averaged in the 95-98 mile-per-hour range in his career. He hasn’t translated that into many punchouts yet but perhaps the relief role will allow him to find an extra gear.

Photo courtesy Sam Greene, Imagn Images.

Reds Notes: McLain, Lux, Candelario, Ashcraft

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Matt McLain looked like a budding star following a 2023 campaign where he debuted for the Reds and slashed an incredible .290/.357/.507 in 89 games en route to a fifth place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year. Impressive as McLain was, however, his rising star came crashing down when he suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery last March. He missed the entire 2024 campaign rehabbing but seemed poised to re-enter the club’s middle infield mix as the starting second baseman next to star shortstop Elly De La Cruz for 2025.

That was before the Reds landed Gavin Lux in a trade with the Dodgers, however. Lux has played second base for the overwhelming majority of his big league career outside of the rare cameo in the outfield and a few ill-fated attempts to try him at shortstop. As noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, club president Nick Krall has indicated that he expects Lux to play second base, left field, and DH for the Reds this year while also getting looks during Spring Training at third base and even shortstop as they look to sort out their mix of position players.

It’s a complicated puzzle the Reds will need to sort out this spring. De La Cruz is surely entrenched at shortstop, while Wittenmyer notes that Krall left the door open for veteran Jeimer Candelario to get the first crack at third base this year even after he struggled defensively at the position during an injury-marred 2024 campaign. If Candelario is at third base, that would open up first base for either Spencer Steer or Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Should Lux end up at second base, that would leave McLain without a spot on the infield, but it’s worth noting that the youngster took reps in center field during the Arizona Fall League this year and that C. Trent Rosencrans of The Athletic recently suggested that McLain could get a look in the outfield himself during Spring Training.

That complex infield picture seems likely to have a domino effect on the club’s outfield this year. Jake Fraley, Austin Hays, and TJ Friedl appear to be the three full-time outfielders locked into the Reds’ roster, but Fraley has long been a platoon player for Cincinnati while both Hays and Friedl are coming off difficult and injury-marred 2024 campaigns. That could open the door for the club’s excess infielders to take reps on the grass, with McLain standing out as an option in center field alongside Friedl while Steer and Lux could both be candidates to patrol the outfield corners.

Turning to the pitching staff, the club has an excess of potential starting pitching options that rivals its excess of potential infield options. Even before veteran Wade Miley returns from Tommy John surgery in May, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com notes that Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft, Carson Spiers, and perhaps even non-roster invitee Chase Petty could be candidates for a rotation job with the club. The most likely starting five in that group, however, figures to be Greene, Singer, Lodolo, Abbott, and Martinez.

Notably, that leaves Ashcraft on the outside looking in. The right-hander has spent his entire big league career in the rotation so far, making 60 starts across the past three seasons. The results have left something to be desired, however, as he’s posted a lackluster 4.91 ERA (92 ERA+) in that time. That includes a 5.24 ERA (84 ERA+) in 77 1/3 innings of work across 15 starts last year. As noted by Rosencrans in a recent mailbag, Ashcraft appears unlikely to make the club’s rotation and may have even fallen behind Lowder to the seventh spot on the club’s rotational depth chart at this point.

That makes Ashcraft a prime candidate to move into a bullpen role, and Rosencrans notes that there’s an “internal belief” that Ashcraft could find success at the back of the bullpen for the Reds if he doesn’t make the cut for the club’s starting rotation. Alexis Diaz had a rollercoaster season in the closer role in 2024, and if he or veteran set-up men Taylor Rogers and Emilio Pagan struggle in 2025 it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine Ashcraft getting an opportunity to prove himself as a high leverage reliever.

Reds Acquire Ty France

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The Reds announced Monday that they’ve acquired first baseman Ty France and cash from the Mariners in exchange for minor league catcher Andruw Salcedo. Seattle designated France for assignment last week. Cincinnati also placed catcher Austin Wynns on the 10-day injured list due to a lat strain, selected the contract of catcher Eric Yang from Triple-A Louisville and transferred righty Graham Ashcraft to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot. Their 40-man roster is now at capacity. Seattle is reportedly sending around $1.29MM to cover part of France’s remaining salary.

Entering the season, the notion of the Reds acquiring a first baseman would’ve seemed silly. Cincinnati had an infield surplus and a particular glut of first basemen, with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer and offseason signee Jeimer Candelario all standing as options at the position. However, Encarnacion-Strand’s season ended early due to wrist surgery, while Steer has seen significant time in the outfield. Candelario has spent much of the year at third base but has been at first base more frequently since Noelvi Marte returned from an 80-game PED suspension. France figures to slide in at first base — certainly against left-handed pitching — while Candelario could see increased time at designated hitter.

Originally drafted by the Padres, France went to Seattle alongside Andres Munoz in the 2020 trade that sent catcher Austin Nola from Seattle to San Diego. He broke out immediately with the M’s and for several seasons was one of their most productive hitters — even earning a well-deserved All-Star nod in 2022. From 2020-22, France posted a combined .285/.355/.443 batting line. He belted 42 homers despite playing in the game’s most pitcher-friendly park, adding 68 doubles and three triples along the way. He didn’t walk much (6.5%) but also went down on strikes in only 16.7% of his plate appearances.

France’s bat took a step back in 2023, when he hit .250/.337/.366 with a dozen homers. His bat-to-ball skills remained strong, however, and his batted-ball metrics remained in line with those that he’d posted during that strong 2020-22 run. A dip in his homer-to-flyball rate was at least partially to blame, and the Mariners tendered France a contract despite the down year, understandably betting on his track record and the ostensibly fluky nature of his ’23 downturn.

The rebound the M’s had expected never manifested, unfortunately, and this year’s struggles are more alarming. France’s contact skills have dipped noticeably. After making contact on 91.2% of pitches in the strike zone in the three preceding seasons, his contact rate on balls in the zone has dropped to 87%. He’s chased off the plate less but also swung less in general as well, dropping from a 52.5% swing rate to a 48% mark. As he’s gotten more passive and made contact in the zone less often, pitchers have attacked him more (58% first-pitch strike rate in 2021-23; 61.2% in ’24). The change in approach hasn’t worked out, as France’s strikeout rate has spiked to a career-worst 24.4%.

The Reds, in dire need of an offensive jolt, will send a low-level catching prospect to the Mariners in hope of turning France around. He’ll move from one of the worst settings for a hitter (Seattle’s T-Mobile Park) to one of the best (Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park) — and that swap alone should help France in the power department. The Reds will hope that the change in scenery and some new coaching input and new data from their front office can help France get back to his prior form. They’ve received an awful .215/.266/.363 slash from their first basemen this season, so France will have a low bar to clear when it comes to providing an upgrade..

If France is indeed able to return to form — or at least more closely approximate his peak form — he’ll be a multi-year option for Cincinnati. He’s not currently signed to a contract for the 2025 season but is arbitration-eligible one final time this winter. The Reds would owe him a raise on this year’s $6.775MM salary, though his early struggles in Seattle should tamp down the weight of any salary increase and keep him shy of $10MM. If not, France would be a trade or (likelier) non-tender candidate in the offseason.

As for the Mariners, they’ll bring in a 21-year-old catcher who’s played parts of four seasons in the Reds’ system. Salcedo carries a .246/.347/.330 batting line in a still-small sample of 98 professional games. He’s fanned in 27.5% of his plate appearances but also walked at a hearty 11.4% clip. He’s not regarded among the Reds’ top prospects, but that sort of low-level lottery ticket return is to be expected for a veteran player on a notable salary. In the meantime, they’ll continue to give regular playing time at first base to top prospect Tyler Locklear while also scouring the market for an additional bat to add to the mix after acquiring Randy Arozarena from the Rays last week.

Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the specifics of the cash considerations.

Reds’ Graham Ashcraft Diagnosed With Elbow Strain

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July 12: Manager David Bell told reporters on Friday that Ashcraft won’t be back until September at the earliest (X link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds could move him to the 60-day injured list at some point given that timetable.

July 11: The Reds optioned righty Graham Ashcraft to Triple-A Louisville earlier in the week, but they’ve now rescinded that transaction and instead placed Ashcraft on the major league 15-day injured list due to elbow discomfort. As Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer explains, Ashcraft reported elbow discomfort after being sent down. The team’s medical staff examined the right-hander, discovered the strain, and recommended a platelet-rich plasma injection. He’s been shut down from throwing entirely for the next two weeks as the team waits to see how his elbow responds to the treatment.

It’s been a tough couple months for the 26-year-old Ashcraft, who entered the season locked into a rotation spot but was sent to Triple-A for a reset in early June on the heels of some notable struggles. He returned after three weeks when the Reds placed Nick Lodolo on the IL due to a blister issue on his pitching hand.

Ashcraft started the season well, tossing seven starts (39 1/3 innings) of 3.86 ERA ball with a below-average 18.6% strikeout rate but a sharp 7% walk rate and strong 51.2% grounder rate. He struggled greatly over his next six trips to the mound, however, posting a 7.71 ERA in 28 frames with a diminished 14.9% strikeout rate.

It’s not clear to what extent the elbow was bothering Ashcraft earlier in the season, but it’s worth pointing out that the big righty averaged 95.2 mph on his sinker over his first seven starts but has checked in at an average of 94.1 mph since. He’s also lost about a half mile per hour off his cutter and 1.4 mph off his slider, on average.

The Reds aren’t providing a timetable right now, as Ashcraft’s return (and any further treatment) hinges on the outcome from the PRP injection. For now, the club hasn’t indicated that a major absence is a consideration or concern, but elbow strains in general are an ominous development for any pitcher. Ashcraft has crossed over the two-year threshold in MLB service this season, meaning he’s under club control for at least four more years — through the 2028 campaign. However, he’ll still have multiple option years remaining beyond the current campaign, so it’s possible that future optional assignments to Triple-A could push that free-agent window back even further.

With Ashcraft squarely out of the rotation picture for the time being, righty Carson Spiers will get an extended look as he aims to secure a starting job alongside Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Frankie Montas and Andrew Abbott. The 26-year-old Spiers carries a 3.64 ERA, 17.9% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate through 42 innings — five relief appearances and four starts.

Reds Recall Rece Hinds For MLB Debut, Outright Levi Jordan

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The Reds made a handful of moves before tonight’s series opener with the Rockies. Cincinnati recalled outfield prospect Rece Hinds in his first MLB promotion. They also brought up righty reliever Yosver Zulueta from Triple-A Louisville. In corresponding moves, the Reds optioned right-hander Graham Ashcraft and placed outfielder Stuart Fairchild on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 7) with a spinal disc injury.

Hinds is in the starting lineup tonight in right field. He’ll hit eighth and likely take his first big league at-bat against Colorado starter Ryan Feltner. The righty-hitting corner outfielder has been on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster since the start of last offseason. The Reds selected his contract to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has been on optional assignment to Louisville all year.

Initially drafted as a third base prospect, Hinds was a second-round pick out of high school back in 2019. Evaluators have long been intrigued by the massive raw power he packs into a 6’4″ frame, but Hinds’ stock has dipped since he entered pro ball because of longstanding contact questions. The 23-year-old has punched out in nearly 35% of his plate appearances over parts of five minor league campaigns.

Strikeouts have again been a concern this season. Hinds has fanned at an untenable 38.4% clip through 328 trips to the plate in Louisville. While he has connected on 13 home runs, his .216/.290/.409 slash line in Triple-A is below average. The Reds remain intrigued by Hinds’ pure power potential, but it’s fair to expect a lot of swing-and-miss in his initial look at MLB pitching.

Cincinnati has tried to find a reliable righty-hitting outfielder to take some at-bats from lefties Jake Fraley and Will Benson. Fairchild has teed off on lefties at a .308/.388/.473 clip over 103 plate appearances, but he hasn’t produced at all against right-handed pitching (.127/.188/.203 in 86 PAs). He’s now out for an indeterminate amount of time, perhaps contributing to the decision to bring in Austin Slater in a late-night trade with the Giants. (Fraley is also currently away from the team tending to a family matter.)

On the pitching side, Zulueta steps into the bullpen and pushes Ashcraft back to Triple-A. It’s the second time this season that the Reds optioned the righty, who opened the year in the rotation. Ashcraft started three times since being recalled on June 26, allowing 10 runs in 15 innings. The Reds could soon welcome Nick Lodolo back from his stint on the 15-day injured list. Manager David Bell told reporters that rookie right-hander Carson Spiers will hold his rotation spot behind Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott and Frankie Montas (X link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

In other Reds news, Cincinnati announced that utilityman Levi Jordan went unclaimed on waivers. He was outrighted back to Louisville. The Reds designated Jordan for assignment last week when they called up Edwin Ríos. A former 29th-round draftee, Jordan earned an MLB call in late June and appeared in seven contests. He picked up his first hit, a double off Daulton Jefferies, over 10 at-bats. He’s hitting .302/.384/.443 on the year in Triple-A.

Reds Option Graham Ashcraft

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The Reds announced Thursday that they’ve optioned struggling right-hander Graham Ashcraft to Triple-A Louisville. His spot on the roster will go to reliever Emilio Pagan, who’s being reinstated after a stint on the 15-day injured list due to a triceps injury.

It’s the first time Ashcraft, 26, has been optioned to the minors since May 2022, when he was sent down a day after making his MLB debut in a spot start. The 2019 sixth-rounder started 19 games for Cincinnati in 2022 and another 26 games last year. Were it not for a calf strain and a stress reaction in his foot, he’d have been ticketed for a full slate of starts in the Reds’ rotation last season.

Though Ashcraft has struggled with consistency, he’s at times looked the part of a viable third or fourth starter in the Reds’ rotation. He opened last season with a dominant 2.00 ERA in his first six trips to the hill, and while his K-BB profile didn’t support quite that level of success, he was showing huge ground-ball tendencies and finding success with a new cutter and revamped slider that looked far better than his 2022 version of the same pitch.

A disastrous stretch followed, wherein Ashcraft was shellacked for 47 earned runs in 33 innings over his next eight starts — including outings that saw him yield ten, eight, seven (twice) and six earned runs. Lost as he looked in that span of six weeks, Ashcraft then rattled off a dozen starts of 2.58 ERA ball to close out his season, averaging 6 1/3 innings per start along the way and never allowing more than three runs in any one start. The big righty still had a subpar strikeout rate in that excellent run but offset that flaw with improved command and strong ground-ball tendencies. It was a promising finish to a season — one that seemed to speak louder than his ultimately pedestrian 4.76 ERA.

The 2024 season has again been a struggle, though not to the extent of last year’s eye-popping slump. Ashcraft currently sports a 5.05 ERA with a well below-average 17.4% strikeout rate but a strong 7.5% walk rate and encouraging 49% ground-ball rate. However, after averaging more than six innings per start down the stretch last year and pitching into the sixth inning in five of his first six starts this season, Ashcraft has struggled with efficiency of late. He’s pitched into the sixth just once in his past six trips to the hill. Though he’s averaging less than 4 2/3 frames per outing in this stretch, he’s done so while requiring an average of 89 pitches along the way.

Unsurprisingly, Ashcraft’s results have suffered. He posted a 3.63 ERA through his first six starts but has turned in a 6.83 mark since that time. His walk rate has spiked from 6.1% to 9%, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 20.1% to 14.3%. He’ll now try to get back on track in Louisville.

From a service time vantage point, Ashcraft’s demotion isn’t likely to alter his path to free agency. He entered the season with 1.136 years of MLB service, meaning he only needed another 36 days to reach two years and stay on track for free agency in the 2028-29 offseason. That said, he was on track to be a very likely Super Two player, making him arbitration-eligible four times rather than the standard three, and that’ll become unlikely if his stay in Louisville lasts more than a couple weeks.

The Reds will continue to deploy a rotation including Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott and Frankie Montas. Veteran swingman Nick Martinez, signed to a two-year deal, could step back into the rotation in place of Ashcraft for the time being. Triple-A starters Connor Phillips, Christian Roa, Lyon Richardson and Carson Spiers are all on the 40-man roster and could represent alternative options, but Spiers is the only one of that group who’s pitched particularly well in Louisville this season. He’s made four long relief appearances for Cincinnati already this season, totaling 13 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball. Lefty Brandon Williamson has yet to pitch in the big leagues this season due to a shoulder injury but is another candidate, as he’s made four minor league rehab starts and is nearing the end of his rehab window.

Reds Notes: McLain, Marte, Ashcraft, Lodolo

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An excellent rookie season for Reds infielder Matt McLain was brought to a sour end by an oblique strain. He didn’t play after August 27, missing the final month as the Reds came up a little shy of the postseason.

That injury is now behind him. McLain told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that he is working out and swinging without issue. The 24-year-old said he’s preparing for a defensive role at either middle infield position.

McLain split his rookie year between those spots. He saw a little more action on the left side, playing 465 innings at shortstop and 296 at second base. As things stand, McLain projects as Cincinnati’s starting shortstop. Arguably the most impressive of the Reds’ strong rookie class, he cemented himself as an everyday player with a .290/.357/.507 slash through his first 89 MLB contests.

Whether McLain sticks at shortstop likely depends on how Cincinnati proceeds with Jonathan India. The latter’s name has again come up in trade rumors since the offseason got underway. President of baseball operations Nick Krall pushed back somewhat on that possibility, categorizing any openness to dealing India more as general diligence than an indication they’re trying to subtract from an infield surplus.

Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer are all options for the left side of the infield. De La Cruz and Marte can handle either shortstop or third base. Encarnacion-Strand might be better suited at first base; Steer has third base experience but could play a bat-first utility role between the corners and designated hitter. It’s a strong collection of talent that allows the front office to consider swapping an infielder for pitching help even after the free agent additions of Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagán.

Marte hit a minor snag while playing in the Dominican Republic. Krall told reporters the 22-year-old strained a hamstring and will be shut down from finishing the winter ball season (relayed by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). The issue isn’t expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training. Marte hit well following a late-season MLB debut, putting together a .316/.366/.456 showing in his first 35 big league games.

In additional injury updates, Krall said pitchers Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft should be full-go for Spring Training (Goldsmith link). The former’s season was wrecked by recurring stress reactions in his left tibia. He didn’t pitch in the majors after May 6. Ashcraft sustained a stress reaction in the big toe on his right foot. He underwent season-ending surgery in the middle of September.

Reds Place Harrison Bader On IL, Select Connor Phillips

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves today, with left-hander Alex Young reinstated from the COVID-19 injured list and right-hander Connor Phillips selected to the roster. In corresponding moves, outfielder Harrison Bader was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right groin strain while righty Carson Spiers was optioned to Triple-A. To open a 40-man spot for Phillips, righty Graham Ashcraft was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

It’s unclear when or how Bader sustained his injury. He started yesterday’s game and made three trips to the plate and was replaced in the seventh inning. TJ Friedl batted for left fielder Nick Senzel that inning and then took over in center, with Will Benson taking Bader’s spot in the order and taking over in left. In addition to the unknowns of when the issue cropped up, the severity isn’t clear either. But with just two weeks left in the season, it’s possible Bader’s season is in jeopardy.

Regardless, it’s an unfortunate blow for the Reds and Bader personally. The club claimed him off waivers from the Yankees at the end of August, adding about $783K in salary to their books just have one month of his services. He hasn’t been having a good year at the plate, now hitting just .232/.274/.348 between the two clubs, but still provides value thanks to his speed and defense. He has 20 stolen bases on the year, despite playing just 98 games, while continuing to get great reviews for his glovework in the outfield.

The Reds will now proceed without Bader for at least the next 10 days, with Friedl likely taking on most of the center field playing time as Benson, Senzel, Nick Martini and Hunter Renfroe share the corners. The club is sitting on a record of 78-73, bunched into an extremely tight National League Wild Card race that seems destined to come down to the wire.

Bader is an impending free agent and will head into the open market at an inopportune time, given his slumping offensive production and mounting injury concerns. He hit .258/.327/.457 over 2020 and 2021 for a wRC+ of 110 but slipped to .250/.294/.356 and a wRC+ of 85 last year, while his aforementioned performance this year amounts to a wRC+ of just 70.

Meanwhile, he’s made trips to the IL over the past three years due to a right rib hairline fracture, right foot plantar fasciitis, a left oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and now this groin strain. He was only able to play 103 games in 2021, 86 last year and 98 so far this year. If he heals up and the Reds make the postseason, perhaps he has time to change the narrative. But for now, it seems he will be trying to market himself at a time when prospective clubs will have various concerns about his long-term projections.

Phillips, 22, came up to the big leagues earlier this month as a COVID replacement. He made two starts with an earned run average of 8.31 before being returned to the minors and has now had his contract selected in the more traditional fashion. In 105 innings in the minors this year, he has a 3.86 ERA, striking out 33.3% of opponents but also walking 12.3%. He’ll jump into a Cincinnati rotation that has been beset by various injuries this year, with each of Ashcraft, Justin Dunn, Vladimir Gutierrez, Nick Lodolo and Connor Overton currently on the 60-day IL. That leaves them with Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Ben Lively and Phillips in the rotation as they make their final postseason push.

As for Ashcraft, it was reported over the weekend that he will require season-ending toe surgery, making this transfer an inevitable formality.

Reds’ Graham Ashcraft Scheduled For Season-Ending Toe Surgery

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Graham Ashcraft hasn’t pitched since September 1 due to a stress reaction in his right big toe, and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer (X link) reports that the Reds right-hander is slated to undergo surgery on the toe on Tuesday.  This procedure would seemingly mark the end of Ashcroft’s 2023 season.

It has been an inconsistent campaign for the 25-year-old, which perhaps isn’t surprising for a low-strikeout pitcher who relies heavily on ground balls.  Ashcraft posted a 2.00 ERA over his first six starts and 36 innings of the season, was then rocked for a 12.82 ERA over his next eight starts and 33 innings, and then righted the ship again by delivering a 2.58 ERA over his last 12 starts and 76 2/3 frames.

All told, Ashcraft has a 4.76 ERA over 145 2/3 innings, as well as a 47.8% grounder rate.  His 17.8% strikeout rate is only in the 13th percentile of all pitchers, while his walk and hard-hit ball rates are almost exactly league average.  Ashcraft is a hard thrower who averages at least 95.8 mph on both his cutter (his primary pitch) and his sinker, but his velocity hasn’t translated into many missed bats.

Despite the wide variance in results, Ashcraft’s ability to deliver solid bottom-line numbers for the majority of the season has been a boon to a Reds team desperate for reliable starting pitching.  His absence for the remainder of 2023 is a blow to Cincinnati’s postseason hopes, as the Reds are battling five other teams for the NL’s three wild card slots.  Without Ashcraft providing any further help, the Reds will continue to rely on their young lineup and steady bullpen, as well as whatever they can get from an increasingly makeshift rotation.

Reds Select Chasen Shreve, Promote Connor Phillips

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves this afternoon. The club placed right-hander Graham Ashcraft of the 15-day IL with a stress reaction in his big toe, placed left-hander Brandon Williamson on the COVID-19 IL, selected the contract of left-hander Chasen Shreve, and added right-hander Connor Phillips to the roster as a substitute player. Players on the COVID-19 IL don’t count against a club’s 40-man roster, so the Reds have plenty of temporary flexibility due to the number of players currently shelved with the virus. As a substitute player, Phillips is only temporarily on the roster and can be returned to the minors without being waived. As the club selected Shreve’s contract, he counts against the club’s 40-man roster in a more permanent fashion, though no corresponding move is needed at this time.

Phillips, 22, will make his major league debut the first time he gets into a game. MLB Pipeline ranks the young right-hander as the club’s fourth best prospect and the 70th best prospect in the sport. He opened the year with a dominant performance at Double-A, posting a 3.34 ERA in 64 2/3 innings of work with an incredible 39.1% strikeout rate. Since receiving a promotion to Triple-A, however, Phillips has begun to struggle. His 40 1/3 innings at the level have yielded a 4.69 ERA, while his strikeout rate has plummeted to 24.2% and his walk rate has ballooned to a massive 16.9%.

Given his age, prospect pedigree and dominance as recently as earlier this season, it’s certainly possible Phillips has a lengthy and successful big league career in his future. In the short-term, however, he’ll need to significantly cut down on the free passes if he hopes to help the 70-67 Reds fight their way into one of the NL Wild Card spots with key pitchers like Williamson and right-hander Hunter Greene out for an unknown amount of time due to the clubhouse’s COVID outbreak.

Shreve, 33, joined the Reds on a minor league deal last month. He had spent the 2023 season with the Tigers prior to that, pitching to a roughly league average 4.79 ERA and 4.06 FIP in 47 appearances with the club. The lefty veteran is in his tenth year as a major league pitcher, with a career 3.88 ERA. While he’s mostly looked the part of a middle reliever throughout his career, it’s worth noting he’s posted a 2.65 ERA with a 34.8% strikeout rate against same-handed hitters this season. With Sam Moll as the only other southpaw in the Cincinnati bullpen as things stand, Shreve seems likely to be able to carve out a specialized role in the Reds’ bullpen going forward.

Joining several of his teammates on the COVID IL is Williamson, who has looked the part of a solid mid-to-back of the rotation starter during his rookie campaign. Across 19 starts with the Reds this year, Williamson has posted a 4.20 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.51 FIP in 98 2/3 innings of work. The loss of a reliable rotation arm like Williamson further compounds the club’s pitching woes. In addition to Greene’s move to the COVID IL, the Reds recently lost any hope of left-hander Nick Lodolo returning this season.

Williamson isn’t the only starter hitting the shelf today, either, as Ashcraft moves to the 15-day IL following his start against the Cubs yesterday, in which he allowed three runs over five innings of work while striking out six. It’s been an up-and-down season for Ashcraft, who dominated to a 2.00 ERA in his first six starts this season before posting a brutal 12.82 ERA over his next eight starts. Since June 30, Ashcraft has posted a 2.58 ERA reminiscent of his strong start to the season, though his 19.8% strikeout rate and eight homers allowed in seven starts both leave his long-term viability as a rotation arm in question. Overall, he’s delivered a 4.76 ERA and 5.07 FIP in 145 2/3 innings of work this season.

Without Williamson and Ashcraft, the club’s rotation is facing a great deal of uncertainty, with only rookie Andrew Abbott as a surefire big league starter on the roster. Lyon Richardson took the ball against the Cubs for the second game of a doubleheader last night, but sports an ugly 6.75 ERA across three starts in the majors. The club will likely have to turn to the likes of Double-A swingman Carson Spiers and journeyman Brett Kennedy to take on innings with most of the club’s rotation out of commission.

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