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Free Agent Notes: Bellinger, Turner, Longoria

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Despite being non-tendered by the Dodgers on Friday, Cody Bellinger has had no shortage of potential suitors, reports The Athletic’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link). Bowden adds that Bellinger had calls from at least five teams “within an hour of him being non-tendered” and that “several more have called since.”

Since slashing an impressive .305/.406/.629 with 47 homers in 2019, Bellinger has had a steep decline. Over the last two seasons, the former MVP has struggled to a .198/.256/.355 line with a high 27.1% strikeout rate and below-average 7.7% walk rate. As noted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, Bellinger suffered a right shoulder injury celebrating during the 2020 NLCS, followed by unrelated leg and rib issues that seemingly zapped his offensive production.

Nevertheless, as Bellinger’s offensive production declined, he has taken on more of a defensive role. Reaching the majors as a first baseman, Bellinger has since transitioned to a full-time role in center field and has been rated favorably by both Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast. Without substantial offensive production over the past couple of years, Bellinger will likely earn less than the $18.1MM projected via arbitration by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but will almost surely remain on a Major League roster.

Elsewhere in the League:

  • In addition to the Mariners’ interest in Gleyber Torres and Kolten Wong, the club has also checked in on Trea Turner and “all the other free agent middle infielders,” per Bowden. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has previously stated that the organization would prefer to land a shortstop that would like to play second base, and that J.P. Crawford is the Mariners’ shortstop. While Torres and Wong are both primary second basemen, Turner has limited experience at the position, having played only 436 2/3 innings at second since 2017. Furthermore, all of those innings were in 2021 after a mid-season trade to the Dodgers, who already had Corey Seager. Perhaps more importantly, shortstops are traditionally paid more than second basemen. MLBTR predicts Turner to receive an eight-year, $268MM contract, which would smash the record for the highest AAV contract for a second baseman.
  • 15-year veteran Evan Longoria has adjusted his free agent wishes, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that Longoria, “hopes to play one or two more years and is open to any competitive team.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today had previously reported that Longoria was only considering the Giants, Rays, and Diamondbacks as potential free agent landing spots. Longoria would be a nice addition to any contending team, with the 37-year-old hitting a solid .252/.333/.466 with 27 homers since the start of the 2021 season. However, injuries have limited Longoria to 589 PA and 170 games over the past two seasons.

Vinny Capra Re-Signs With Blue Jays

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Infielder Vinny Capra is re-signing with the Blue Jays on a Minor League deal, reports Robert Murray of Fansided. Capra had been non-tendered by the Jays on Friday and had received “strong interest elsewhere” before opting to remain with Toronto, per Murray.

Capra, a 20th-round pick in the 2018 draft, made his MLB debut in early May. He had one hit, two walks, and a strikeout in seven plate appearances before being sent down to Triple-A Buffalo near the end of the month. He had three separate stints on the 7-day IL before undergoing left middle finger tendon surgery in early October and being placed on the 60-day IL.

Despite several injuries, Capra had a productive season at Buffalo, hitting .283/.378/.403 with five homers and six doubles. Perhaps most impressive was his low strikeout rate (13.1%) and high walk rate (13.1%). Capra will likely receive an invite to Spring Training and attempt to earn a spot on the Blue Jays’ bench for the 2023 season.

Pirates Sign Nate Webb To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates are in agreement with righty Nate Webb on a Minor League deal with an invite to Spring Training, per Robert Murray of Fansided. Webb had previously been DFA’d and non-tendered by the Royals.

Webb, who had been DFA’d by the Royals on Tuesday before the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft, was non-tendered on Friday, sending him straight to free agency. The 25-year-old was limited to 33 1/3 innings of 9.99 ERA ball across three minor league levels in 2022, missing two and a half months due to injuries.  The bulk of his 2022 season was spent with Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where the former 34th-round pick pitched 26 1/3 innings to a 9.57 ERA with a low 21.1% strikeout rate and a solid 7.0% walk rate.

Despite this weak regular season performance, Webb had a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League (5 2/3 innings pitched, zero earned runs, six strikeouts, and two walks). However, with only 28 2/3 innings at Double-A and Triple-A (both from this past season), Webb will likely start the 2023 season in the Minors.

Free Agent Notes: Judge, White Sox, Strahm

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There is an increasing belief that the Dodgers will make a run at AL MVP winner Aaron Judge, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman notes that the Dodgers have freed up $100MM, with Cody Bellinger, Craig Kimbrel, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, David Price, Trea Turner, and Justin Turner no longer on the roster, and that the Dodgers have an outfield gap to fill. Justin Terranova of the New York Post adds that the Dodgers were previously viewed as being on the outskirts of the Aaron Judge sweepstakes, with the Giants posing the biggest threat in his return to the Bronx. The Yankees have already sent the superstar’s camp a new offer, but Terranova notes that the Giants have “indicated that they were willing to break the bank for Judge’s services.”

There has been speculation that Judge, who grew up outside of San Francisco, might be inclined to play closer to home, with Randy Miller of NJ.com noting that the star spends “parts of his offseasons in Linden” but resides in Tampa. For his part, Judge has played coy when asked about his free agency, telling reporters after he won the AL MVP that he is “looking forward to getting the free-agent process going,” but noting that “a lot of stuff doesn’t kick in until the winter meetings in December,” per Terranova.

Elsewhere in the League:

  • White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz has indicated that his team “need[s] another starter” with Johnny Cueto entering free agency, according to Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. Katz adds that Chicago has discussed bringing back Cueto, and it was previously reported that Cueto is open to a return to the team. Inked to a minor league contract in early April, Cueto joined Chicago in late May and posted one of his strongest seasons over the past five years. The 36-year-old worked to a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 innings, albeit with a career-low 15.7% strikeout rate and a strong 5.1% walk rate. As noted in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Starters article, Cueto’s age, lack of missed bats, and 91 MPH fastball likely won’t earn him a huge deal, but he will almost surely earn a guaranteed rotation spot entering the 2023 season.
  • On the heels of a successful season in Boston, Matt Strahm is in search of an opportunity to start on the free agent market, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. However, Speier notes the seven-year veteran has only discussed bullpen opportunities so far this offseason. Strahm last started during the 2019 season, before transitioning to a bullpen role with the Padres in July of that season. Following a slow recovery from a 2020 patellar tendon surgery on his right knee, he was DFA’d after the 2021 season and subsequently picked up by the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. Despite being limited to only 27 1/3 innings across the 2020-2021 seasons, Strahm played an integral role in Boston’s pen in 2022, pitching to a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings and earning four saves. Importantly, after two years of sub-20% strikeout rates, Strahm punched out an above-average 26.9% of opposing batters while walking a solid 8.8%.

Latest On Orioles’ Off-Season Plans

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As Baltimore enters the off-season on the heels of their best season since 2016, the areas they’ll be looking to upgrade in are becoming clearer. Roch Kubatko of MASN writes that Baltimore is already active in the starting pitching market, while left-handed hitting is their focus on the offensive side of things.

Kubatko reports that Baltimore is already talking to multiple representatives of free agent pitchers, but notes that they aren’t likely to be spending at the top of the starting pitching market. Instead, that could mean targeting the numerous second tier arms available including the likes of Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and more.

Currently, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Austin Voth and Kyle Bradish are penciled into the Orioles’ rotation but none are necessarily locks. Kremer and Voth were the only two to post sub-4 ERAs last season, but they both benefited a bit from a low opponent BABIP and a high strand rate. In any event, some combination of those four and one or two outside additions could form Baltimore’s rotation to start the 2023. John Means would also figure to be a part of the rotation, but it’s unclear when he’ll return from April Tommy John surgery.

That group would lack a clear ace, but the team does have top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez on the cusp of the majors, and he could feature on opening day, or at least early in the season. While a young pitcher is far from a sure thing – even one as impressive as Rodriguez – the Orioles are certainly hoping he can blossom into a frontline starter just as their contention window begins to open. DL Hall struggled in a handful of relief options this year, but he’s the fourth best prospect according to Baseball America and could well be a rotation option in 2023 as well.

On the hitting side of things, Kubatko’s report says the Orioles will target corner outfield, first base and designated hitter as areas to upgrade, with a specific focus on left-handed hitters. He speculates that Michael Brantley, the recently non-tendered former NL MVP Cody Bellinger, or Brandon Belt could be options there. Indeed, there’s a number of candidates that fit the bill, and the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Josh Bell and Michael Conforto could also make sense for Baltimore.

The Orioles currently have Anthony Santander and Austin Hays penciled into the corner spots, with Ryan Mountcastle at first base. All three have been solid contributors for the Orioles, but for a team that’s looking to take the next towards contention, it wouldn’t hurt to see that group upgraded or reshuffled to make room for an outside addition, particularly given the team has no locked in DH for 2023. Santander, for instance, is projected to make $7.5MM in arbitration and not likely to lose much playing time, but could see more time at DH given his limited defensive appeal with a new corner outfielder coming. Similarly, Mountcastle could spend more time at DH if the team brings in a new first baseman.

Mets Believe Jacob deGrom Wants To Stay

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Jacob deGrom is expected to have many suitors this winter, but according to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the veteran right-hander prefers to stay in Queens. While any deal would require a significant investment, Puma writes that provided there’s not a major discrepancy between offers, deGrom would rather re-sign in New York.

deGrom opted out of his contract at the end of the season, and his free agency will be a fascinating one. The 34-year-old is unquestionably one of the most talented pitchers in the game and deserves to be paid accordingly, but his age and injury history will make teams leery of a long term commitment. According to Puma, the Mets are steering clear of a four or five year commitment, instead preferring to give deGrom a shorter contract that could include option years based on the pitcher meeting certain incentives.

The long term concerns over deGrom are justified, he didn’t pitch at all between July 7, 2021 and August 2, 2022 due to multiple injury problems. Upon returning, he was his usual dominant self, striking out a staggering 42.7% of batters against a 3.4% walk rate on the way to a 3.08 ERA over 11 starts. In fact, whenever healthy he’s been an unbelievably dominant pitcher, pitching to a career 2.59 ERA over 209 starts.

It’s a huge risk/reward free agency given the enormous AAV deGrom will command, but a host of big-market contending clubs will be interested. Puma notes that deGrom places a high value on winning, and believes the Mets are in a position to contend for World Series titles regularly, aiding their case. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $135MM deal for deGrom, which would give him a record AAV of $45MM, just eclipsing the $43.33MM AAV Max Scherzer got from the Mets a year ago.

That sort of commitment would take the Mets’ payroll close to the estimated $282MM mark from this season (per RosterResource), and with other holes in their rotation and bullpen particularly it seems likely their payroll will push closer to $300MM in 2023. The Mets currently have Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill pencilled in as rotation options, so they’ll almost certainly be in the market for multiple starters this winter, even after a possible deGrom signing.

Hanshin Tigers Close To Signing Jeremy Beasley and Sheldon Neuse

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The Hanshin Tigers of the Nippon Professional League are close to signing former MLB players Jeremy Beasley and Sheldon Neuse, as well as former big league prospects Brian Keller and Johan Mieses, according to Yahoo Japan.  Meanwhile, the Tigers have renewed former Tiger, Angel and Pirate Kyle Keller’s contract for around $1.5MM, and the deal contains an additional $300K in possible incentives.

Beasley, 27 tomorrow, was recently released by the Pirates, but last pitched in the majors for the Blue Jays. He had a 4.80 ERA in nine relief appearances spanning 15 innings, and owns a career 5.84 ERA across 24 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks in the past three seasons. He’s shown the ability to punch out major league hitters, striking out batters at a 29% clip, although that comes with a 12.3% walk rate.

Neuse was a second round pick for the Nationals back in 2016, but made his way to Oakland in the Sean Doolittle deal a year later. Across three seasons with the Athletics and Dodgers, Neuse owns a .212/.262/.296 batting line with seven home runs in 420 plate appearances. He’s primarily spent time at second and third base, but has also logged time at first base, shortstop and both corner outfield positions.

Brian Keller was drafted in the 39th round of the 2016 draft by the Yankees, and made it as high as Triple-A with them. He was claimed off waivers ahead of the past season by the Red Sox, and spent the last year at their Triple-A affiliate. There, Keller pitched 113 innings of 3.27 ERA ball, making 20 starts and 11 relief appearances. He struck out a little over a quarter of the batters he faced, but walked batters just over ten percent of the time.

Mieses, 27, has bounced around the minor leagues a bit, spending time with the Dodgers and Cardinals before joining the Red Sox in 2021. The outfielder spent the past year at Triple-A, slashing an impressive .271/.387/.537 with 12 home runs across 60 games. All of those appearances came in right field or as the DH, although he has appeared at the other two outfield spots in previous seasons.

Kyle Keller, 29, spent the past season with Hanshin after being released by the Pirates at the end of the 2021 season. He turned in a 2.72 ERA in 49 2/3 innings with 64 strikeouts and just 12 walks. He struggled during his time in the big leagues, pitching to a 5.83 ERA across 46 1/3 innings for the Marlins, Angels and Pirates, but he seems to have found success in Japan so it’s not surprising to see him stick around for another season.

Note: A prior version of this post incorrectly stated Keller’s salary as approximately $1.3MM. MLBTR regrets the error.

Rays, Royals Linked With Dominic Smith

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The Rays and Royals “could have interest”in free agent slugger Dominic Smith, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Smith was recently non-tendered by the Mets after a disappointing campaign in 2022.

Two years ago such a move would have been unfathomable after Smith slashed .316/.377/.616 with ten home runs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, earning down-ballot NL MVP votes for his efforts. However, it’s been a tough slide for the 27-year-old who’s been worth a combined -1.1 fWAR in the two seasons since.

The beginning of that slide came last year, when Smith played through a partially torn labrum in his shoulder and hit just .244/.304/.363 with 11 home runs. His struggles continued into 2022 as he battled for regular playing time, he ended up splitting time between Triple-A and the big leagues. With the Mets, he’d finish up hitting .194/.276/.286 without a single home run, good for a wRC+ of just 67. He went a lot better at Triple-A, slashing .284/.367/.472 with ten home runs in 54 games.

The Mets’ decision to non-tender him drew to a close and underwhelming time in Queens for a player who was drafted 11th overall in 2013 and regularly featured on top-100 prospect lists. His combined 150 wRC+ over the 2019 and 2020 campaigns showed Smith had the talent to excel at the highest level, but emergence of Pete Alonso blocked Smith at first base and he had to spend a fair bit of time in the outfield, where he graded out poorly.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged Smith for a $4MM salary in arbitration, so given his age, talent and low-cost it’s not surprising to see a couple of smaller market teams linked to him. The severe drop in power since his shoulder problems is a big concern, but he had a strong line at Triple-A and it’s possible he’d benefit from the regular playing time he often found hard to come by in New York.

For the Rays, the need at first base is obvious after they traded Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates early in the off-season. Smith could take over as Tampa Bay’s everyday first baseman, while filling in in the outfield and at designated hitter when needed.

It’s less obvious in Kansas City, where the emergence of rookie Vinnie Pasquantino at first base makes the addition of another left handed slugger less important. Of course, the Royals don’t currently have a clear DH option, and Smith could well spend time there while spelling Pasquantino at first base from time-to-time, but they do also have left handed hitter Ryan O’Hearn, and Salvador Perez will likely spend time at the DH spot moving forward, so there’s not a clear need for a hitter like Smith.

There’s no guarantee Smith would perform like a starter for either team, even if they’re willing to offer him regular playing time. However, there’s plenty of upside for the acquiring team, which would also control him via arbitration for the 2024 season, while the likely insignificant financial cost would make parting ways a bit more palatable if Smith were to continue his struggles to begin the season.

Latest On Red Sox Pitching Targets

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The Red Sox have already been linked to multiple free agent pitchers, with such names as Kodai Senga, Andrew Heaney, Seth Lugo, and Tyler Anderson (since signed by the Angels), all reported as names on Boston’s radar, and the Sox also have interest in re-signing two of their own free agents in Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill.

Corey Kluber is also on this list, as the right-hander tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he had again had some talks with Boston this winter.  After previously negotiating with the Red Sox in each of the right-hander’s previous two trips to the free agent market, Kluber ended up signing with the Yankees for the 2021 season and then with the Rays in 2022.  Kluber posted a 4.34 ERA and a league-best 1.2 BB/9 over 164 innings with Tampa Bay, and pitching in Boston would have some extra appeal since Kluber and his family live in Winchester, Massachusetts.

While the Red Sox are actively seeking out more arms, Speier writes that it doesn’t appear the team is aiming for the very top of the pitching market.  This means that Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, and Chris Bassitt are unlikely to be landing in Boston, for a variety of reasons.  In the view of most pundits (including MLB Trade Rumors’ own top 50 free agent list), these are the four established Major League starters likely to score the biggest contracts on the open market this winter, and it seems as though the Red Sox aren’t eager to make quite such a big commitment to a single player.  “The Sox are more likely to spread spending across several targets,” Speier writes, so hypothetically, Boston could sign the likes of Heaney and Eovaldi for less than it would cost to sign Verlander alone just in 2023 salary.

Senga could be something of an exception, as the Japanese ace is drawing enough widespread interest that it now looks like he could land one of the bigger contracts of any pitcher this offseason.  MLBTR projects Senga for five years and $75MM, and while the Red Sox have interest, it is possible the bidding could get beyond their comfort zone.

The qualifying offer is also a factor, as deGrom, Rodon, and Bassitt all rejected the QO and thus have draft compensation attached to their services.  Since the Red Sox surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2022, they’d face a higher penalty ($1MM in international bonus money, and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft) for signing a qualifying free agent.  Since Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts also rejected qualifying offers, the Red Sox could net two compensatory picks back if those player signed elsewhere, yet those picks would only fall after the fourth round as further penalty for exceeding the luxury tax.  In short, the draft-related tradeoff probably means that the Sox would prefer to not sign a QO free agent, all things considered.

This strategy might not hold much appeal to Boston fans, who haven’t been pleased about the big-market team’s approach to spending in recent years.  The Red Sox haven’t had much progress in trying to lock up Bogaerts or Rafael Devers to new contracts, and the team’s desire to reset their tax bill in 2020 was one of the factors behind trading Mookie Betts to the Dodgers.  However, the Sox were willing to go over the tax line this past season, despite only a longshot chance at a playoff berth at the trade deadline.  The Red Sox ended up with a disappointing 78-84 record and now an extra tax burden to boot, in the form of the QO-related penalties.

That said, it was just two offseasons ago that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom also used the “spread out the spending” strategy to bolster the roster that ended up making the 2021 ALCS.  And, back in the 2012-13 offseason, the Red Sox famously made a number of lower-level acquisitions that all paid off in the best possible fashion, as Boston captured the 2013 World Series.  So there is certainly recent evidence that a more measured approach to the offseason can work out swimmingly, and of course, there is still plenty of quality pitching available even in the second or third tiers of the open market, not to mention what else might emerge in trade talks.

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