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Ryan Zimmerman Announces Retirement

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Two-time All-Star and 2019 World Series champion Ryan Zimmerman announced his retirement from Major League Baseball today. The decision marks an end to a 17-year MLB career spent entirely as a member of the Nationals organization.

Zimmerman released a statement via his agency CAA Baseball, the full extent of which can be found on Twitter. Therein, the 37-year-old thanks the Washington fanbase, Nationals’ ownership and front office, his former teammates, coaches/training staff and agents, and his family. “Although my baseball career has come to an end, my family and I will continue to be heavily involved in the DMV community. You have given so much to us over the past 17 years; it is now time for us to give back to you. We look forward to continuing many of our community programs and starting new ones in the future. Our kids will be raised here, as this is now our home, and we couldn’t be more excited. So this is not a goodbye but more of a ’see you around.'”

The franchise made the transition from the Expos to the Nationals over the 2004-05 offseason, relocating from Montreal to Washington. That summer, they selected Zimmerman with the fourth overall pick coming out of the University of Virginia. The first official National draftee, the right-handed hitter would debut in the major leagues just a couple months later. So kicked off an MLB career that’d span nearly two decades and cement him as one of the most important players in franchise history.

Zimmerman hit very well as a September call-up in 2005, and he was pencilled into the starting lineup at the beginning of the following year. Immediately, he proved a quality all-around performer. He hit .287/.351/.471 as a rookie, pairing that above-average offensive output with excellent third base defense. He narrowly finished behind Hanley Ramírez in that season’s NL Rookie of the Year balloting, but Zimmerman would land some accolades before long.

Between 2007-08, he posted slightly above-average offensive marks while continuing to rate as one of the league’s best glovemen at the hot corner. Yet his career really took off in 2009, when Zimmerman made important strides in both his power output and walk rate en route to a .292/.364/.525 showing. That checked in 30 percentage points above the league average offensive performance (130 wRC+), and Zimmerman collected his first career All-Star appearance, Silver Slugger award and Gold Glove while garnering some down-ballot MVP support.

Not only did he back up that breakout showing the following season, he arguably got even better. Zimmerman hit .307/.388/.510 that year, collecting another Silver Slugger and a few more MVP votes. Despite the accolades, he was perhaps a bit underrated over that two-year run as the team stumbled to a pair of last-place finishes. Only five position players (Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford and Chase Utley) topped Zimmerman by FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement measure between 2009-10.

Zimmerman had signed an early-career contract extension before his 2009 breakout, locking him in as a building block for a franchise that finally emerged from a long-term rebuild a few years into the 2010’s. He didn’t quite maintain his 2009-10 level of play as he got into his late-20s, but Zimmerman remained a solidly above-average regular for the next few seasons. He combined for a .281/.348/.464 showing between 2011-13, playing a key role in the Nats winning the division in 2012 for the first time since relocating.

Along the way, Washington again inked Zimmerman to a long-term extension. This one, a $100MM guarantee that ran through 2019 with full no-trade protection, promised to keep him a member of the organization for at least the vast majority of his career. Injuries limited his workload between 2014-15, and he turned in an uncharacteristically poor season in 2016. Yet Zimmerman rebounded late in the deal.

Working exclusively as a first baseman as he got into his 30s, he posted one of the better showings of his career in 2017. Zimmerman popped a career-best 36 homers and hit .303/.358/.573 over 576 plate appearances that year, earning his second All-Star nod in the process. Recurring injuries kept him from ever again exceeding 350 at-bats in a season, but Zimmerman continued to hit at an above-average level when healthy in 2018.

Remaining with the Nationals throughout his career paid off most handsomely in 2019. Zimmerman only played in 52 regular season games, but he was no doubt a revered member of the clubhouse. He saw a fair bit of action during Washington’s run to a World Series title, collecting his first ring in his age-34 campaign. Zimmerman opted out of the 2020 season owing to COVID-19 concerns but returned for a final year with the Nats in 2021.

While he hit free agency at the end of last year, there’s no question the Nationals would have welcomed him back had he wanted to continue playing. General manager Mike Rizzo said in October that “Ryan Zimmerman has a place on this roster as a player as long as Mike Rizzo is the GM” and flatly stated he had a standing MLB contract offer on the table. Yet Zimmerman pointed to a desire to spend more time with his family and suggested he didn’t feel he had the drive to fully commit to playing another season (via Jesse Dougherty and Barry Svrulga of the Washington Post).

Zimmerman concludes his playing career having left an indelible mark on the franchise, highlighted by the “Mr. National” moniker long ago bestowed upon him by fans. His #11 jersey seems a lock to be retired by the organization, and he’ll no doubt be finely remembered by the Washington fanbase.

Altogether, Zimmerman compiled a .277/.341/.475 line across parts of 16 big league seasons. He totaled 1846 hits, 284 home runs and 417 doubles, driving in 1061 runs and scoring 963 times. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference valued his career around 40 WAR, and BRef estimates he compiled a bit more than $134MM in earnings. Zimmerman earned MVP votes in four separate seasons, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he garners some votes for the Hall of Fame when he appears on the ballot five years from now. MLBTR congratulates him on an excellent career and wishes him all the best in retirement.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

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We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/15/22

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Major League free agency remains in a transactions freeze, but teams are still inking players to minor league pacts as we await a new collective bargaining agreement. Here’s a quick look at a couple former prospects of note who’ve agreed to deals in recent days…

  • The Phillies signed former Red Sox prospect and Philadelphia native Josh Ockimey to a minor league contract, as announced by Ockimey himself (on Twitter). The 26-year-old slugger was Boston’s fifth-round pick back in 2014 and consistently ranked among the organization’s top 25 prospects at Baseball America throughout his time there, peaking at No. 10 in the 2016-17 offseason. A left-handed-hitting first baseman, Ockimey posted solid numbers up through Double-A before beginning to struggle in Triple-A. He’s still drawn his walks (16.6%) and hit for power (.221 ISO) at the minors’ top level, but Ockimey’s 31.4% strikeout rate in Triple-A has contributed to a .214/.349/.435 overall slash line in 933 plate appearances there. He’ll give the Phillies some additional depth at first and at designated hitter — assuming the universal DH is implemented after the lockout, as expected.
  • Catcher Chris Betts is headed to the Dodgers on a minor league contract, per the transactions log at MLB.com. The 24-year-old was the No. 52 overall pick by the Rays back in 2015 but missed his first full season after requiring Tommy John surgery. He ranked among Tampa Bay’s top prospects at Baseball America up until the 2018 season but has struggled to stay healthy throughout his pro career. Betts appeared in a career-high 110 games with the Rays’ Class-A affiliate in ’19, hitting .210/.333/.400 in 472 plate appearances. He appeared in just 27 games and tallied only 89 plate appearances in 2021, but he’ll give the Dodgers a once well-regarded catching prospect to stash in the middle levels of their system in 2022, if healthy. Betts drew praise for his bat speed and raw power back when BA ranked him as the 2015 draft’s No. 28 overall prospect, but he’s a project for the Dodgers at this point.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

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In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

The Tigers Continue To Benefit From 2017 Deadline Trade

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The Tigers and Cubs were going in polar opposite directions in 2017. Detroit was headed towards a last place finish that would kick off the massive rebuild from which they’re only now emerging. Chicago was trying to defend their drought-breaking World Series title, eyeing another division championship as part of what looked to be a dynasty in the making.

Given their respective competitive windows, they made for natural trade partners as that summer’s deadline approached. The Tigers were clearly preparing to sell off some productive big leaguers; the Cubs were willing to part with young talent to bolster their push for another championship. The day before the deadline, they agreed to a deal that sent a pair of veteran role players from Detroit to Chicago in exchange for two young infielders. Catcher Alex Avila and reliever Justin Wilson landed on the North Side, while Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes headed to the Tigers.

Nearly five years later, the Tigers are reaping the benefits of that swap. Candelario, who had logged the briefest of action at the MLB level in each of the previous two seasons, served as a near-ready pickup. A corner infielder, he had no path to playing time on a Cubs team with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo on the roster. But the Tigers could afford to give him regular run, and he was an everyday player by September.

Candelario has been a regular for much of the time since. He played in 144 games in 2018, performing around the league average on both sides of the ball. His 2019 campaign was a disaster, as his power evaporated and he was optioned on and off the active roster a few times throughout the year. That seemed to call his long-term future into question, but Candelario has turned things around over the past couple seasons.

The switch-hitter returned to appear in 52 of the Tigers’ 60 games during the shortened 2020 campaign. He posted career-best numbers, managing a .297/.369/.503 line over 206 plate appearances. That’s a very impressive showing but it’d have been easy to write that off as something of an outlier. Not only were those numbers compiled in an abbreviated schedule, he benefitted from an unsustainable .372 batting average on balls in play.

To his credit, Candelario largely backed up that strong performance last year. He tallied a personal-high 626 plate appearances over 149 games, hitting .271/.351/.443 with 16 home runs and an MLB-best 42 doubles. As expected, a .039 point dip in BABIP dropped his overall numbers a bit relative to 2020. Still, last season’s production checked in 19 percentage points above the league average (119 wRC+), and he did that over a much larger body of work than he had the year before. He now owns a .278/.356/.458 mark (123 wRC+) in 832 trips to the plate going back two seasons.

Nothing Candelario does stands out as excellent, but he has developed into a well-rounded offensive player. His contact rate, hard contact frequency and average exit velocity are all slightly above-average. So too are his line drive and barrel rates, as Candelario has demonstrated a knack for consistently squaring balls up. He’s been effective from both sides of the plate — .299/.350/.473 as a righty hitter; .270/.358/.453 as a lefty — allowing skipper A.J. Hinch to plug him into the lineup no matter the matchup. And while Candelario’s not a great defender at the hot corner, public metrics have considered him competent there. With top prospect Spencer Torkelson soon to assume first base duties in the Motor City, Candelario should be plugged in at third for at least the next couple seasons.

The Tigers’ rebuild has been ongoing for a few years, so Candelario’s recent production has flown a bit under the radar on non-competitive teams. Yet Detroit played reasonably well down the stretch, and this winter’s signings of Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez — coupled with the looming debuts of Torkelson and Riley Greene — indicate they’re hoping to turn the corner in 2022. Candelario now looks like a key piece of that effort, and he remains under club control through 2023 via arbitration.

Paredes, who was in Low-A at the time of the trade, also remains in the Detroit organization. He’s yet to find much MLB success, but he’s coming off an impressive .265/.397/.451 showing over 315 plate appearances with Triple-A Toledo. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining and could yet develop into a productive infielder himself.

That the deal worked as the Tigers had hoped — at least the Candelario pick-up — doesn’t mean it didn’t pan out for the Cubs. As mentioned, Candelario was going to have a hard time finding playing time in Chicago anyhow. The Cubs obviously didn’t develop into a dynasty, but their acquisitions of Avila and Wilson proved successful enough. The former hit .239/.369/.380 in 112 plate appearances down the stretch, providing a strong on-base presence behind Willson Contreras before departing in free agency. Wilson spent a year and a half in Chicago, posting a cumulative 3.86 ERA/3.66 FIP across 72 1/3 frames of relief. Neither player was a franchise-altering star, but they were never intended to be. Avila and Wilson were brought aboard to fill specific areas on the roster (backup catcher and left-handed relief, respectively), and they both fared reasonably in doing so.

All in all, it seems this trade served both teams well. Going in differing competitive directions, the Cubs’ and Tigers’ needs aligned. Avila and Wilson were short-term but effective players for Chicago, while Candelario has since developed into the solid regular Detroit envisioned. After a significant rebuild, the Tigers are hoping to contend this year. Candelario continuing to perform as he did from 2020-21 would be a quiet but important asset alongside their big-ticket additions and graduating top prospects.

MLB’s CBA Proposal Included Ability To Reduce Number Of Available Minor League Roster Spots; MLBPA Planning To Reject

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10:11 pm: Passan tweets that the union is planning to reject MLB’s proposal to possibly shrink the number of minor league roster spots. He adds that the MLBPA has declined similar offers by the league in the past.

8:29 pm: Major League Baseball put forth its latest collective bargaining proposal last weekend. Among the provisions included in that broad offer: a clause that would allow the commissioner’s office to reduce the amount of minor league roster spots available to teams in future seasons, according to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN.

Currently, teams are permitted to carry up to 180 minor league players in their organizations during the season; that number expands to 190 over the offseason (not including the Dominican Summer League). According to Passan, MLB’s proposal would leave that 180-player limit in place for the upcoming season but would provide the league the flexibility to set the limit of minor leaguers per club at under 150 players at some point during the term of the next CBA. Passan hears from a league source that they’re not currently envisioning cuts to minor league membership at any point in 2023 but value the opportunity to implement stricter roster limits down the line.

MLB has made efforts to contract the minor leagues over the past few years. Over the 2019-20 offseason (prior to the start of the pandemic), the league eliminated 42 teams from affiliated ball, turning them into independent clubs or amateur summer ball teams. As part of the COVID-19 protocols, the league shrank the 2020 first-year player draft from 40 to five rounds. It was set at 20 rounds last year, and Passan writes that the league and union agreed last July to keep a 20-round draft in place going forward.

MLB’s proposal could affect different organizations to varying extents. Passan reports that five franchises currently roster more than 180 MiLB players, while two already have fewer than 150. Given that wide discrepancy in roster count between teams, there’s certainly some logic in tighter regulations to balance the field. Yet MLB no doubt also values the potential to reduce the number of minor league roster spots for cost-cutting reasons. Stricter limits on the number of spots available, if implemented, could involve many or all organizations having to release players.

Whether the Major League Baseball Players Association will sign off on changes to the minor league roster setup remains to be seen. Minor league players are not members of the MLBPA, nor are they members of a union of their own. Yet the MLBPA does play a role in some decisions involving amateur or minor league players. In addition to the aforementioned league-union agreement on cutting draft rounds, the parties have also discussed the possible implementation of a draft lottery, for example.

The treatment of minor league players is an issue that has garnered a fair bit of attention in recent years. The league suggested that improving conditions for remaining minor leaguers provided a compelling justification for cutting teams in the first place. Whether they’ve indeed made significant enough strides to justify those cuts has been a matter of debate. The league is requiring teams to provide housing for their farmhands, starting next season. Yet there remain concerns about the sufficiency of player pay during the season, and MLB continues to battle to keep minor league Spring Training unpaid.

The Rangers’ Underappreciated Trade Chip

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The Rangers’ decision to cannonball into the deep end of the free-agent pool this offseason has radically reshaped their infield mix and given them one of the top offensive double-play tandems in Major League Baseball. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are slated to hold down the shortstop/second base pairing in Arlington for the next seven seasons.

One side effect of that seismic splash is that it leaves Isiah Kiner-Falefa without a clear-cut defensive home. A Gold Glove winner at third base in 2020, Kiner-Falefa played a strong shortstop in 2021 and had been squarely atop the depth chart there prior to the Seager/Semien stunner. That’s no longer the case, though not through any fault of his own. Kiner-Falefa has been an elite fielder by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and finished third among MLB shortstops in the Fielding Bible’s voting this past season. Metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average aren’t as bullish, but Kiner-Falefa is at worst regarded as a roughly average defender (and generally agreed upon as a good bit more than that).

Beyond his accolades with the glove, Kiner-Falefa is fairly a solid performer at the plate, albeit in more of an “old school” manner. He’s been 13 percent worse than the average hitter, by measure of both wRC+ and OPS+, over the past two seasons — but that’s primarily due to a lack of power. Kiner-Falefa has still posted a solid .273 batting average and a respectable .316 on-base percentage in that time. He’s only drawn a walk in 4.6% of his past 905 plate appearances, but he’s also only fanned in 13.5% of those trips to the plate.

There’s plenty of value derived from Kiner-Falefa’s ability on the basepaths as well. He went 20-for-25 in stolen-base attempts this past season and ranked in the 75th percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. On top of that, Kiner-Falefa has played in all but six of the Rangers’ games dating back to 2020. Only six big league players have appeared in more games than Kiner-Falefa over those two years.

He may not be a star, but Kiner-Falefa is a good defender and baserunner who rarely strikes out and, despite a lack of power, at least gives his club solid at-bats. That’s a valuable player, even if the overall skill set is a bit less typical now than it’d have been a generation ago. A simple course of action is to just shift Kiner-Falefa back to the hot corner, where he won that previously mentioned Gold Glove in 2020. That’d be a straightforward means of addressing the infield, were it not for the presence of fast-rising prospect Josh Jung.

The 24-year-old Jung was the No. 8 overall draft pick in 2019 and has done nothing but hit since he made his professional debut. The former Texas Tech star is widely considered to be among the 40 or so best prospects in all of Major League Baseball and is expected to make his debut in 2022. It’s even arguable that with a good Spring Training showing, Jung could merit an immediate look in the big leagues. He posted a dominant .326/.398/.592 slash between Double-A and Triple-A last year, after all, including a ridiculous .348/.436/.652 output with nine home runs and 14 doubles in 156 Triple-A plate appearances.

Jung has played exclusively at third base in the minors, although as The Athletic’s Keith Law noted in ranking Jung 32nd on his Top 100 prospect list, the Rangers did play him at a few different positions in 2020 at their alternate site. Still, Law calls Jung a solid-average third baseman, and scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com have generally agreed that Jung should be able to handle the position from a defensive standpoint.

Even if the expectation is that Jung rises quickly to the big leagues — be it Opening Day, late April or mid-June — the Rangers don’t necessarily need to do anything with Kiner-Falefa. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an affordable $4.9MM salary in 2022 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2023 season. Asking Kiner-Falefa to keep the hot corner warm for Jung before moving into a super-utility role is a perfectly sound and defensible course of action for a team that is striving for immediately improved on-field results. Kiner-Falefa has strong defensive ratings at each of shortstop, third base and second base — and while he struggled when trying to work as a catcher early in his career, he does at least have 586 MLB innings at the position. At the very least, he’s a better option there than most emergency catchers.

Still, that versatility and affordability also create another path for the Rangers to take: trade Kiner-Falefa to a team that has an immediate infield need. Even with Seager, Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun, the Rangers aren’t expected to compete in 2022. They’re likely looking at 2023 and beyond, when Jung, Jack Leiter, Cole Winn and other top prospects will be more seasoned at the MLB level. Trading Kiner-Falefa now for one more jolt of young talent does carry some long-term appeal, even if it perhaps costs Texas a few wins in the forthcoming season.

The Yankees, for instance, have already been linked to Kiner-Falefa. If they’re indeed reluctant to sign one of the remaining premier shortstops (i.e. Carlos Correa, Trevor Story) to a long-term contract as they instead await the arrival of ballyhooed prospect Anthony Volpe, then Kiner-Falefa would make sense as a quality stopgap who could hold the fort down for the entire 2022 season at the least.

New York is far from the only on-paper fit. The Twins don’t have a clear starter at shortstop at the moment, nor do the Angels. The Astros are still planning for how they’ll replace Correa if he ultimately signs elsewhere, and the Phillies could use a defensive upgrade over Didi Gregorius. Looking to other positions that Kiner-Falefa can handle, the White Sox could install him at second base. The Blue Jays could look for help at either third base or second base.

Suffice it to say, there’s a fairly wide swath of teams that could and quite likely will show interest in Kiner-Falefa when the lockout lifts. Will the Rangers actually make a move, though? That much depends on the strength of offers received.

Texas isn’t going to move Kiner-Falefa solely because of his modest arbitration salary and the fact that he could eventually be used in more of a utility role. If a team makes a strong offer, though, the newfound infield depth will surely prompt president of baseball ops Jon Daniels and GM Chris Young to consider the idea. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News has suggested a couple of times this month that a trade might be likelier late in Spring Training, once Texas has a better sense of where Jung is and once other clubs know what to make of their internal options around the infield.

However things play out, Kiner-Falefa is now a rather valuable luxury item in Texas: well-rounded enough to start at three different infield positions but still likely one step down the depth chart at each spot by season’s end in 2022. Kiner-Falefa has quietly become an underappreciated trade chip, but if the offers presented to Daniels & Co. aren’t sufficient, it never hurts to have an overqualified depth piece in the event of injuries to big-name veterans or a slow start from a top prospect.

Latest On David Stearns’ Contract

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Back in October, when the Mets were still in search of a new baseball operations leader, SNY’s Andy Martino reported that Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns — known to be of interest to Mets owner Steve Cohen — may have a vesting option for the 2023 season on his contract. Stearns was already known to be signed through 2022 at the least, and the presence of a clause extending that date through the 2023 season only further reduced the likelihood that he’d be a realistic candidate in Queens.

Now, Martino adds some additional context, writing that Stearns is technically signed through the 2023 season, but his contract allows him to become a free agent this offseason if Milwaukee wins the National League pennant in 2022. Essentially, one of his perks based on the team’s on-field success would be the right to explore his market and field interest from other clubs a year earlier than otherwise scheduled.

The Mets, in particular, are known to covet Stearns. Their courtship of Stearns goes back two years now, as Cohen has sought permission to interview Stearns — and been denied by the Brewers — in each of the past two offseasons. Stearns has always been a long-shot target for the Mets, as most clubs generally only allow executives to interview with other teams if the opportunity in question would mark a promotion. Stearns already has baseball operations autonomy in Milwaukee and holds the title (president, baseball operations) that is now most commonly given to front office leaders.

Even if the Brewers don’t make a World Series appearance and trigger Stearns’ early out, it’s quite possible a fresh round of Mets/Stearns rumors will kick up again this winter nonetheless. After all, nothing had changed from Nov. 2020 to Nov. 2021 — Stearns was still under contract for multiple years — but the Mets still placed him atop their front office wishlist, only to again be rebuffed by the Brewers. Cohen hired Billy Eppler under the title of “general manager,” not “president of baseball operations,” so it’s technically possible that he could hire Stearns to head up the Mets’ baseball operations staff even with Eppler on board as GM.

One way to more firmly put an end to any pursuits of Stearns from rival clubs would be for Brewers owner Mark Attanasio to sign Stearns to a new extension. It’s now been more than three years since Stearns was promoted from general manager to president and signed to the extension on which he’s currently operating. Perhaps Stearns, who’ll turn 37 later this week, is intrigued by the possibility of fielding interest from other clubs and wouldn’t want to explore a new contract at this time, but there’s nothing stopping the Brewers from discussing a Stearns extension during the lockout, should they choose.

Poll: Who Will Play First Base In The Bronx?

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Following the 2020 season, first base didn’t look like it’d be an area of concern for the Yankees for the next few years. Luke Voit led the Majors with 22 home runs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, turning in a stout .277/.338/.610 batting line that was 53 percent better than the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. A series of injuries derailed much of Voit’s 2021 season, however, prompting the Yanks to trade for Anthony Rizzo at the deadline.

Fast forward several months, and Rizzo is a free agent, Voit is a possible trade candidate, and the Yankees have been linked to big-fish names like Oakland’s Matt Olson and even free agent Freddie Freeman, who has yet to put pen to paper on a new deal in Atlanta. Everyone’s wondering who’ll play shortstop at Yankee Stadium in 2022, but first base is a question mark in its own right, so let’s take a quick look at each of the most plausible possibilities.

Luke Voit: There’s certainly an argument for sticking with the status quo and giving Voit another go-around. Last year was blown up by a torn meniscus that required surgery, an oblique strain that wiped out another month, and then continued knee troubles in the season’s second half. Voit, who turned 31 just yesterday, managed just eight more plate appearances in 2021 than he did in the 60-game 2020 sprint.

When he was healthy, Voit was a solid hitter, slashing .239/.328/.437 (111 wRC+) with 11 long balls, seven doubles and a triple in 241 trips to the dish. However, he also saw his strikeout rate spike to a career-worst 30.7% as he struggled through those injuries, and that batting line is a far cry from his aforementioned dominance in 2020.

In the three seasons leading up to 2021, Voit batted a combined .278/.371/.541 with 58 home runs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 26.4% strikeout rate in 905 plate appearances. He grades out as a poor defender at first base, but it’s easier to overlook the glovework if he’s hitting like he did from 2018-20. If he’s hitting like he did in 2021, that defense becomes harder to hide. Voit is controlled three more seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.4MM in 2022. He’s affordable and has plenty of upside with the bat — but there are red flags to consider as well. For his part, Voit told Dan Martin of the New York Post that he loves playing in New York and hopes to remain. He also acknowledged that a trade is possible.

DJ LeMahieu: The 33-year-old thrived with the 2019-20 Yankees, playing all over the infield and turning in a combined .336/.386/.536 showing with a tiny 12.7% strikeout rate. However, with a .268/.349/.362 batting line in 2021 (100 wRC+), LeMahieu had his own downturn at the plate this past season.

If LeMahieu were still hitting at his 2019-20 levels, that’d be more than enough offense even if he moved to first base on a full-time basis. If he’s “only” an average or slightly above-average hitter moving forward, then his versatility and ability to play other positions becomes more important.

The Yankees could still give LeMahieu the bulk of the work at first base in 2022, though it doesn’t seem like it’d be a top choice. It’s hard to see them doing so with Voit still on the roster, meaning they’d likely need to move Voit and spend the bulk of whatever resources they have remaining on other needs (shortstop, pitching, etc.).

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo had a big start in New York, but by the time the season had run its course, his overall offensive production as a Yankee looked pretty similar to Voit’s 2021 output: .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+). Rizzo was an offensive force with the Cubs from 2014-19, batting a collective .284/.388/.513 in that time and topping 30 home runs in four different seasons. He’s since settled in as more of a 20 to 25-homer threat who makes good contact (15.1% strikeout rate) and draws some walks but is no longer an MVP-caliber hitter.

Two points in Rizzo’s favor over Voit: he’d give the Yankees a left-handed bat to help further balance a lineup that skews heavily toward right-handed hitters, and he’s also generally considered to be a strong defender. Defensive metrics were down on Rizzo in 2021, but he still graded out better than Voit typically has. That’s also the only time in his career he’s ever drawn negative marks for his glovework at first base.

Rizzo would be a costlier option, even though his stock has dropped from the point at which the Cubs were offering him extensions to keep him beyond 2021. MLBTR predicted a three-year deal at a rate of $15MM per season heading into the offseason, and even that was in part due to some of the narrative building up Rizzo as a difference-making clubhouse presence and leader. Post-lockout, an even shorter deal can’t be completely ruled out. He’ll still cost quite a bit more than Voit, but he won’t break the bank relative to, say…

Freddie Freeman: Braves fans and pundits alike are still a bit surprised things have gotten to this point with Freeman, the homegrown Braves icon whom most onlookers considered a slam dunk to spend his entire career in Atlanta. It’s still wholly plausible that after a protracted set of contract negotiations, Freeman returns to anchor the lineup at Truist Park, settling in as a lifelong Brave. At the same time, there have been reports that the Yankees, Dodgers and perhaps the Blue Jays could at least try to pry Freeman from Atlanta by offering the lengthier deal and/or weightier annual salary he’s thought to seek.

Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, shook off some early-season doldrums in 2021 and finished out the year with a pretty typical (for him) .300/.393/.503 slash through 695 plate appearances. These endpoints are completely arbitrary, so take them with a grain of salt, but on May 7, Freeman finished the day with a .195/.326/.407 slash. From that point forth he hit .324/.409/.526.

Freeman will turn 33 in September, so the always-prominent concerns about paying for a player’s decline phase exist here as well. It might take six years and an annual salary in the $30MM range to sign him (or at least a salary well north of $30MM on a five-year term). The Yankees obviously have the resources to do that — particularly if they take an affordable approach at shortstop, as has been rumored — but there’s plenty of long-term risk.

Matt Olson: Perhaps the most-speculated trade match of the entire offseason, Olson-to-the-Bronx makes a good deal of sense. He’s an elite fielding left-handed bat who broke out as one of the game’s most well-rounded offensive players in 2021. Always a 30-homer threat — he swatted 29 homers in 2018 and 36 in 2019 — Olson slashed his strikeout rate from 26.3% all the way to 16.8% this past season. He did so while maintaining a walk rate north of 13%, and the resulting .271/.371/.540 slash and 39 home runs were career-best marks.

The A’s control Olson through 2023, but he’s projected to earn $12MM in arbitration (via Swartz) at a time when the A’s are reportedly aiming to reduce payroll. He’d give the Yankees a clear upgrade for at least two years, coming with an affordable (for them) salary in both seasons. It’s always possible that the Yankees could look into a long-term deal in the aftermath of a trade, too.

That said, Olson’s going to come with one of the heftiest asking prices of any player on the trade market. Yankees fans are surely loath to even consider the possibility of including a headliner such as top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe, but any trade scenario involving Olson is probably going to come at a prospect cost that upsets many fans. Olson will (or at least certainly should) command multiple players from the top echelon of any team’s farm system.

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Those are just a few possibilities for the Yankees, but they seem to be the most plausible paths for GM Brian Cashman and his staff to tread. After Freeman and Rizzo, the free-agent market doesn’t offer a clear everyday option at first base who’d be an upgrade over Voit and LeMahieu. There are other speculative trade candidates to consider (e.g. Dominic Smith, Josh Bell), but none who promise the impact and clear upgrade that Olson would bring to the fold.

Let’s open this up for readers to discuss and to take their best guess (link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users) …

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