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Cubs Return Rule 5 Pick Gray Fenter To Orioles

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The Cubs have returned Rule 5 Draft pick Gray Fenter to the Orioles, per an announcement from Baltimore. The O’s have assigned the right-hander to major league spring training as a reserve.

Fenter was a seventh-round pick of the Orioles in 2015 who joined the franchise for a massive bonus ($1MM) relative to his draft position. While Fenter has since pitched to a 3.21 ERA and struck out over 10 batters per nine in 230 minor league innings, the 25-year-old hasn’t climbed above the Single-A level yet. He also underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016, wiping out that season and a large portion of the next year for him.

Fenter had an excellent year during the most recent minors season, 2019, when he logged a 1.81 ERA in 94 1/3 innings in Single-A. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote last December that Fenter “sat 91-93 and touched 95” that season.

Latest On Allegations Against Yasiel Puig

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As outfielder Yasiel Puig remains unsigned and hopeful of a return to Major League Baseball, the sexual assault allegations brought forth against him earlier this offseason continue to cloud his market. Both Andy McCullough of The Athletic and John Barr of ESPN looked at the situation and the allegations in depth this week. McCullough spoke to Puig’s agent Rachel Luba, and Barr interviewed both the alleged victim and her brother. Luba declined to comment on the ongoing litigation when asked by The Athletic, choosing instead to focus on the outfielder’s baseball resume and desire to return to the game.

No police reports or criminal charges have been filed against Puig, although he is the subject of a civil suit filed by his accuser. The report from Barr is the first indication that the league has looked into the matter, although a full investigation has yet to take place. As Barr details, the league informed the plaintiff and her attorney that further investigation would not be possible because she has yet to provide her name. She tells Barr that she prefers to keep her identity out of public reporting on the matter because she runs an L.A.-area business wherein she works with other professional athletes. For the purposes of the suit against Puig and her interview with Barr, she is referenced only as “Jane Roe.”

The alleged incident, which is said to have occurred when Puig followed the woman into a bathroom at a 2018 Lakers game, is detailed at length in the linked reports from ESPN and The Athletic. Barr notes that court filings also detail a series of text messages from Puig to his accuser in the days after the Lakers game in question, wherein Puig sought to arrange a private meeting between the two. The woman tells Barr she does not recall when she gave Puig her number but that it would not have been unusual to do so for business purposes.

McCullough and colleagues Ken Rosenthal and Katie Strang note that Puig’s camp has filed a motion to have the suit dismissed, taking the position that publicizing the lawsuit while remaining anonymous seeks only to “convict Mr. Puig in the court of public opinion, before Mr. Puig even has an opportunity to defend himself.” The plaintiff’s attorney calls that motion a “thinly veiled attempt by Defendant Puig to humiliate, harass, and punish” her client and pressure the woman into dropping the charges.

There’s no indication at this point as to when a judge will rule on on the suit or the motion to dismiss, although Barr writes that the suit itself is enough to dissuade many clubs from showing legitimate interest in Puig. The 30-year-old Puig has been a lightning rod for controversy even before these allegations surfaced in November, and one front office executive tells Barr that teams simply do not “want the headache” associated with signing him.

Puig has twice been arrested for reckless driving in the past, and he has drawn team-issued discipline at times in the past for being late to the field — though Luba contends that was due to an undiagnosed case of ADHD which is now being treated. Puig has not played in a Major League game since the conclusion of the 2019 season, as a reported one-year agreement with the Braves last winter fell through when Puig tested positive for Covid-19.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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Angels fans may have entered the offseason with visions of big free-agent deals for the likes of Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto and DJ LeMahieu dancing in their heads, but new general manager Perry Minasian made far more modest moves in an effort to improve the roster.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Angels’ rotation has been a weakness in recent years, including in 2020, so it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see the team court some of the top available starters during the offseason. Bauer, a Southern California native, was atop the free-agent market, though he wanted to play for a perennial contender. The Angels, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2014, don’t fit that description. Plus, there was friction between Bauer and pitching coach Mickey Callaway when the two were in Cleveland, which made it even less likely he would sign with the Angels (Callaway’s future with the club is now in doubt as a result of multiple allegations of sexual harassment that have come to light in recent weeks). In the end, Bauer did sign in Los Angeles, but he went to the Dodgers, thereby leaving the Angels without an elite ace yet again.

Before Bauer headed to the Dodgers, the Angels showed interest in the likes of Jake Odorizzi and J.A. Happ in free agency, and they were among potential suitors for Blake Snell on the trade market. They didn’t bring in anyone from that group, though, instead signing ex-White Sox and Cubs left-hander Jose Quintana to a one-year, $8MM deal and acquiring righty Alex Cobb from the Orioles. Those two, Dylan Bundy (who excelled in 2020), Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning and Shohei Ohtani are projected to make up a six-man rotation at the beginning of the season.

Quintana and Cobb, who have each pitched under manager Joe Maddon in the past, come with quality track records. However, no one is going to confuse either one with a top-end starter. Quintana hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.00 since 2016, and injuries held him to just 10 innings and one start last year. Cobb has also battled injuries and mediocrity since a Rays heyday that lasted from 2013-14. The Angels are only paying $5MM of his $15MM salary (the Orioles are taking on the rest), but it’s still somewhat of a head-scratcher that they gave up Jahmai Jones, a decent prospect, for Cobb instead of dipping into free agency and signing a similarly priced hurler without surrendering young talent.

While the Cobb trade may look questionable, it’s hard to argue with the Angels’ decision to send reliever Noe Ramirez and infield prospect Leo Rivas to the Reds for Raisel Iglesias. Although the Angels will only get one guaranteed year out of Iglesias, he’s a clear bullpen upgrade over Ramirez, and he makes a reasonable salary ($9.125MM). Iglesias figures to close for the Angels, who – despite reported interest in Brad Hand and Joakim Soria – didn’t make any other major bullpen additions. Alex Claudio and Junior Guerra (minor league deal) came aboard alongside Iglesias, though, and any of those three could emerge as trade deadline chips if the club’s not in contention around the trade deadline.

Not content to stop at one Iglesias over the winter, the Angels also landed shortstop Jose Iglesias in a trade with the Orioles. That’s probably not the middle infielder Angels fans were hoping for when the offseason commenced. Because David Fletcher is capable of playing both second and short, the Angels could have addressed either position and used him at the other spot. LeMahieu and Kolten Wong were among the free agents at second, while Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Francisco Lindor (whom the Angels would have had to reel in via trade) could have replaced the departed Andrelton Simmons at short. Most of those players would have been more exciting pickups than Iglesias on paper, though it’s worth noting the slick-fielding 31-year-old comes at a cheap rate ($3.5MM) and enjoyed a career year at the plate in 2020. Furthermore, next winter is slated to feature a star-studded class of free-agent shortstops (Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story and Javier Baez lead the pack), so the Angels may just be biding their time with Iglesias as they wait for any of those players to hit the market.

As expected, along with trying to bolster their middle infield, the Angels made an effort to get better behind the plate and in the corner outfield. The No. 1 catcher available, Realmuto, looked like a fit on paper, but the Angels didn’t seriously pursue him before he re-signed with the Phillies. They did, however, go after James McCann and Yadier Molina in free agency and show interest in trades for Christian Vazquez of the Red Sox and Willson Contreras of the Cubs. But they came up empty in all of those cases, instead bringing in the well-traveled Kurt Suzuki on a one-year, $1.25MM deal. Suzuki’s not an ideal option behind the plate, though he is a good hitter relative to his position. He’ll give the Angels a useful fallback option if Max Stassi struggles in his return from the hip surgery he underwent last autumn.

Center fielder Mike Trout, the best player in the world, leads the Angels in the grass, but they’ve lately struggled to find productive complements in the corners. Justin Upton was part of the solution for a little while, but he’s now coming off back-to-back subpar years. He’s still slated to start in left, though, owing in part to a bloated salary. Meanwhile, much-hyped prospect Jo Adell had a horrid debut in the majors last season, after which Maddon said, “He needs more time in the minor leagues, no question.” Adell is just 21 and was robbed of a Triple-A season in 2020 because of COVID-19, so it’s far too soon to discount him as a potential answer for the Angels in the future. Regardless, they’re not going to gift him a starting role right now.

In light of Adell’s difficult year, the Halos spent a portion of the offseason looking into veteran free agents such as Brett Gardner and Kyle Schwarber, but their biggest outfield transaction came when they grabbed Dexter Fowler in a trade with the Cardinals. Fowler, like Upton, has disappointed since signing a lucrative contract a few years back, but the Halos took little risk in dealing for the 34-year-old switch-hitter. After all, the Cardinals are paying $12.75MM of the remaining $14.5MM on Fowler’s contract, and the Angels only had to give up a player to be named later for him. If Fowler’s able to offer a third straight year of league-average numbers at the plate, he’ll provide a sizable upgrade in right for a minimal cost.

Even though the Angels didn’t have an especially fascinating offseason, it does appear Minasian has put the long-struggling franchise in better position to succeed this year. It helps that they’re in a division where there is no dominant team, as the Astros, Athletics, Mariners and Rangers also come with their fair share of questions.

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Pirates Sign Trevor Cahill

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The Pirates have made a late addition to their rotation mix, announcing Friday that they’ve signed veteran righty Trevor Cahill to a one-year deal.  The JBA Sports client will reportedly be guaranteed $1.5MM and have the opportunity to take home another $1MM via incentives.  Those incentives are based on innings pitched and kick in with a $100K bonus for reaching 75 frames. Cahill would also earn $150K for reaching 100 innings, $200K at 125 innings, $250K at 150 innings and $300K at 175 innings.

Trevor Cahill | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Cahill received interest from as many 16 teams, Nightengale writes, following a season that saw him post a 3.24 ERA/4.38 SIERA over 25 innings with the Giants.  Presumably, based on the terms of his contract, much of that interest was on non-guaranteed deals.

Long a ground-ball specialist, Cahill seemed to change course in 2020, albeit with the caveat of his very small sample size of work.  Cahill had only a career-low 33.3% grounder rate, while his K% rocketed to 29.2%, by far the highest of his 12-year career.  His Statcast metrics were solid overall, and Cahill continued to deliver his signature elite-level curveball spin.

It was a solid bounce-back outing from a very rough 2019 season that Cahill post a 5.98 ERA/4.95 SIERA over 102 1/3 innings with the Angels.  Cahill was bedeviled by a 22.5% home run/fly ball rate that season, but he cut that number down to a much more palatable 12.5% in 2020.

The 33-year-old Cahill worked as both a starter and reliever in San Francisco, and it seems likely that he’ll be ticketed for rotation work in Pittsburgh.  Certainly, his incentive structure is geared toward that role.  With Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, and Chris Archer all now pitching for other teams, the Pirates have definitely need for some innings-eating arms in the rotation.

Cahill joins fellow newcomer Tyler Anderson alongside Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, and Steven Brault as the top rotation candidates in Pittsburgh, though this collection could change significantly as the season goes along — whether just by simple attrition, other youngsters stepping up to grab jobs, or the rebuilding Pirates trading more hurlers elsewhere.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links).

Miles Mikolas Shut Down For Seven To Ten Days

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March 12: Mikolas won’t throw for the next seven to ten days, Mozeliak tells Goold. An MRI taken of his right shoulder did not reveal any structural issues but did show some inflammation. Mikolas will undergo further testing in the coming days once the inflammation subsides a bit.

March 11: Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas has been slowed by shoulder troubles thus far this spring, but the club received generally positive results after a wave of imaging yesterday, it seems. Manager Mike Shildt told reporters this morning that Wednesday’s wave of tests did not reveal any structural damage in Mikolas’ shoulder or elsewhere in his arm (Twitter link via Rob Rains of StlSportsPage.com). Shildt described the results as “favorable,” but he’ll also be backed off his throwing program for the time being.

It’s unclear at this point just when Mikolas will be ready to return to the mound. The Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold wrote yesterday that the club does not expect Mikolas to be ready to begin the regular season in the rotation, which would create some uncertainty at the back of the rotation early in the year. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has already indicated that touted but oft-injured righty Alex Reyes will be used as a multi-inning piece out of the bullpen, with a target of around 100 innings hopefully on the docket.

At present, the Cardinals’ top three options are set with Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim all locked in. Righty Carlos Martinez has oscillated between starter and reliever over the course of his five-year contract extension, but given this year’s $11MM salary and the growing need for starters, it seems likely he’ll open the year in the rotation as well.

The Cards have plenty of depth options in their ranks. Righty Daniel Ponce de Leon has fared better as a reliever in his limited big league career to this point, but he does have 20 serviceable MLB starts under his belt. Fellow right-hander John Gant was used exclusively out of the ’pen in 2019-20 but also made 19 starts for the Cardinals in 2018 and threw well in that showing. Lefty Genesis Cabrera has been used primarily as a reliever in the Majors over the past two seasons but has almost exclusively started as a minor leaguer. Prospects Johan Oviedo and Jake Woodford both made their Major League debuts in 2020 as well.

It wouldn’t be a shock if the Cardinals looked into some additional starting options — they reportedly had some degree of interest in Jake Odorizzi — though the in-house depth they have should be able to hold things down as long as Mikolas isn’t in line for a significant absence. If the Cardinals do want to add some veteran depth, there are still a few free agents of note on the market, including Rick Porcello, Trevor Cahill and Homer Bailey. Others could hit the market in the coming weeks as veterans exercise opt-out provisions in non-roster deals around the league, and at least a handful of depth options figure to hit waivers as teams continue to inch closer to setting Opening Day rosters.

Indians Trade Mike Freeman To Reds

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Indians manager Terry Francona announced this morning that Cleveland has traded veteran infielder Mike Freeman to the Reds (Twitter link via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Cincinnati sent cash to Cleveland to complete the minor swap, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. Freeman was in camp with Cleveland as a non-roster invitee, so he won’t go onto Cincinnati’s 40-man roster at this time.

The 33-year-old Freeman spent the past two seasons with Cleveland, working as a utilityman and posting a combined .270/.352/.377 batting line through 256 trips to the plate. He’s spent time at all four infield spots and in both outfield corners during that time, although the bulk of his work has come as a second baseman and third baseman. Freeman doesn’t offer much power and has a fairly limited MLB track record, but he’s a career .304/.369/.418 hitter with quality strikeout and walk rates in parts of six Triple-A seasons.

Freeman had been vying for a bench spot in Cleveland, and he’ll give the Reds another option as they try to sort out who will get playing time at shortstop this year. He has 1901 career innings at the position between the minors and the big leagues, although he hasn’t played there on a semi-regular basis since his 2018 run with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate.

Still, Freeman at the very least gives the Reds a possible bench option who can handle the position. At the moment, the favorites for playing time at shortstop appear to be Kyle Farmer, Kyle Holder and non-roster veteran Dee Strange-Gordon. In the long run, the hope is that top prospect Jose Garcia can handle the spot, but the 22-year-old looked overmatched in his first taste of MLB action last year, hitting just .194/.206/.194 in 68 plate appearances.

Over in Cleveland, Freeman’s departure lends a bit of clarity to the infield mix. Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario are vying for starting reps at shortstop, and if Gimenez wins out that would seemingly push Rosario into an infield/outfield role off the bench. Yu Chang could join him as a utility piece off the bench. If the club decides to send Gimenez to the minors to begin the year, Rosario would likely take the reins at short, with Chang serving as the primary backup around the infield.

Latest On Maikel Franco

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Free agent third baseman Maikel Franco is likely to choose his next club either today or tomorrow, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The former Phillies and Royals slugger has been connected to both the Mets and the Orioles over the past week, and Heyman now adds that the Braves are among the teams “in the mix” for Franco.

While Franco has been connected to three clubs over the past week now, there have been indicators that not every rumored club is a serious player for his services. The Athletic’s Tim Britton reported that although the Mets indeed checked in on Franco at one point, they also don’t believe a deal will come together at this time. Meanwhile, in the days since the Orioles were first tied to Franco, Baltimore general manager Mike Elias has publicly stated that he does not foresee any free-agent additions for his team (link via MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko).

“I don’t feel that there are any imminent additions at this time coming from the free agent market.” Elias said as recently as Wednesday. “That could change, but I don’t see anything kind of barreling down the pike here right this second.” Certainly, that doesn’t rule out the possibility that Franco could land there, but it does throw some cold water on the possibility.

Turning to the latest rumored fit, the Braves make some sense as a potential landing spot for Franco, although they’ve already added veteran corner infielder Jake Lamb to the third base competition. Lamb signed a one-year, $1MM contract earlier in the spring, and while the deal isn’t fully guaranteed, it did place him on Atlanta’s 40-man roster. That gives the Braves three possible options already, as Lamb joins holdovers Austin Riley and Johan Camargo in the mix for playing time.

Riley excited fans and the organization alike with a huge first month in the big leagues back in 2019, he’s struggled since that point. Over his past 380 Major League plate appearances, Riley has posted a .211/.274/.387 slash with a 31.1 percent strikeout rate. Add in last year’s postseason numbers, and the overall line dips to .207/.270/.371 in a sample of 429 trips to the plate. Camargo, meanwhile, turned in an impressive 2018 effort but has posted a dismal .222/.267/.378 slash in 375 plate appearances since. As for Lamb, his 2018-19 seasons were ruined by shoulder injuries, and he got out to a miserable start in 2020 as well. After being cut loose in Arizona and landing in Oakland, however, he looked like the Lamb of old in 13 games down the stretch with the A’s.

Riley is a former top prospect who won’t turn 24 until next month, so there’s still quite a bit of upside in the former No. 41 overall draft pick. Lamb gives the Braves upside as well. He belted 59 home runs from 2016-17 in Arizona and made the 2017 All-Star team. Camargo, at the very least, is a strong defender at the hot corner and a switch-hitter at the plate.

Franco could still fit into the mix, particularly if he’s open to a minor league pact. It’s also possible that the Braves aren’t thrilled with Lamb’s slow start this spring — he’s 1-for-12 with a walk and a HBP — and could look to pivot. Lamb could be cut from his non-guaranteed deal prior to Opening Day for $161K or $242K, depending on the point at which the club makes the move, although 14 plate appearances would be an extraordinarily brief audition.

Baltimore represents the cleanest and most obvious fit of the three teams rumored to be in the mix for Franco. Incumbent Rio Ruiz hasn’t hit much over the past two seasons and is out to a slow start in camp. He also has a pair of minor league options remaining. Prospect Rylan Bannon figures to eventually get a look in 2021, but he’s only played 20 games of Triple-A ball and could potentially benefit from some additional development time.

Franco was at least a mildly surprising non-tender by the Royals back in December, as he’d turned in a solid 2020 season and drawn public praise from both his manager and general manager. Appearing in all 60 games for Kansas City, the former top prospect posted a .278/.321/.457 batting line with eight homers, 16 doubles and improved defensive marks at the hot corner. The Royals, however, cut him loose and moved Hunter Dozier back to third base, opting instead to add several players to their outfield mix.

2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Opening Day is three weeks away, and here at MLB Trade Rumors it’s time to look ahead to the 2021-22 free agent class. These players are on track to become free agents after the 2021 season, but a lot can change before we reach that point. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2021-22 open market earning power. You can see the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents here.

It’s worth noting that the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st.  With so much uncertainty as to how that will play out and whether there will be a work stoppage, I’m going to mostly set it aside for the purposes of this post.

1.  Francisco Lindor.  The largest MLB free agent contract ever signed was Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies two years ago.  Meanwhile, the largest extension was the 12-year, $365MM deal signed by Mookie Betts last summer.  The highest average annual value was the $36MM achieved by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole.  These are the records Lindor figures to be aiming for if he reaches free agency after a strong 2021 season.  A 5-WAR season, which is what projection systems call for, would help fully erase a 2020 campaign that saw the shortstop post a career-worst 102 wRC+ in 266 plate appearances.

Lindor is not the game’s best-hitting shortstop, and might not even belong in the top five.  But it is the combination of a quality bat and strong defense that puts him in the conversation for the best overall at his position.  As you’ve no doubt heard, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class is exceptional, with eight potential starters at the position.  At least half of them are star-caliber.

Lindor’s nickname, Mr. Smile, comes from the impression that he represents “nothing but pure baseball joy,” in the words of Will Leitch.  Lindor’s personality will be amplified now that he’s been traded to the big-market Mets.  Upon the January 7th trade, there was an assumption by some that the suddenly deep-pocketed Mets would move quickly to sign Lindor to a contract extension.  Those talks might be taking place right now, based on this Jon Heyman tweet, and he describes Opening Day as “at least a soft deadline.”  By the next installment of these Power Rankings, we should know whether Lindor is likely to reach the open market at age 28.  Lindor is represented by SportsMeter.

2.  Corey Seager.  Born about five months after Lindor, Seager is arguably just as good.  Seager finished 9th in the NL MVP voting in the abbreviated 2020 season, and he too is forecasted to post a 5-WAR 2021 season.  Seager played beyond that level from 2016-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and was limited to 26 games that year.  His 2019 return was more good than great, but then Seager put up a 152 wRC+ in 232 regular season plate appearances in 2020, going on to win both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards.  Aside from possibly Fernando Tatis Jr., no shortstop carries a more potent bat than Seager.

Defensively, Seager’s work does not jump off the page, especially that which came after his Tommy John procedure.  It stands to reason that Seager may be expected to move to the hot corner at some point during the course of his next contract.  For that reason we’ve got him a touch behind Lindor in earning power, but that could change.  The Dodgers have the inside track to signing Seager if they want to, and it’s even plausible they could lock him up while dipping back under whatever the base tax threshold is in 2022.  Seager is represented by the Boras Corporation.

3.  Trevor Bauer.  Will Bauer return to the free agent market after a single season with the Dodgers?  He’s built the option into his contract.  If Bauer opts out of the remaining two years and $64MM, he gets a $2MM buyout, but $20MM of his ’21 salary will be deferred without interest until 2031.  So there’s a financial calculation to be made, and locking in more guaranteed money – potentially more than $200MM – could become especially appealing if Bauer pitches at a Cy Young-caliber level for all of 2021.  He’ll also be free of the qualifying offer the next time around, though it remains to be seen how that might be adjusted in the next CBA.

The easier choice might be to opt out after 2022, at which point Bauer will have earned $85MM over two seasons and wouldn’t be risking much.  Bauer is represented by Luba Sports.

4.  Trevor Story.  Story’s 13.5 WAR since 2018 has only been bested by Lindor and Xander Bogaerts among shortstops.  Still, age is a big factor in free agent earning power, as it affects the number of years teams are willing to give.  And Story is a full 22 months older than Carlos Correa.  Story is still a young free agent, however, as he’ll play at age 29 in the first year of his next contract.

Story mainly has to contend with Coors Field, in that he has a 141 wRC+ there since 2018 but a 105 mark on the road.  It’s not that simple, and many good hitters have seen continued success after leaving Coors.  But Story’s earning power may be boosted if the Rockies move him at the July trade deadline and he puts up his customary 120 wRC+ for a new team.  Plus, he could potentially shed the qualifying offer with a trade.

Story’s defense likely slots in ahead of Correa and Seager, and he’d beat any fellow free agent in a foot race.  As an all-around player, Story is quite valuable and comes with few question marks outside of the Coors Field factor.  He’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

5.  Carlos Correa.  Correa was once mentioned in the same breath as Lindor and Seager for those prognosticating about this free agent class, but his star has dimmed considerably since the Astros won the World Series in 2017.  There’s the sign-stealing scandal, in which Correa was a central player.  But so too was George Springer, and he was able to land a strong $150MM contract after re-asserting his hitting prowess sans trash cans.

For Correa, the problem is more that since 2017, he’s not been able to post a season in which he was both healthy and an above average hitter.  He raked at a 143 wRC+ in 2019, but was limited to 75 games due to a cracked rib and a back injury.  He avoided the IL in 2020, but put up a career-worst 98 wRC+ in 221 regular season plate appearances before going nuts for 55 PA in the postseason.  So before extending a contract of seven-plus years, teams need to see if Correa can be the 5-WAR player he once was.  His defense probably rates somewhere between Lindor and Seager.

Correa has age in his favor, as he’s about five months younger than Seager and 10 months younger than Lindor.  Still, he has the widest error bars of anyone on this list, and his 2021 season is crucial.  The Astros are at least taking the typical stance of planning to explore an extension.  Correa is represented by WME Baseball.

6.  Nolan Arenado.  Arenado, who was paired with Story on the left side of the Rockies’ infield for five years, has the ability to join him in free agency.  It’d require opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal.  To take such a leap, Arenado’s lone season with the Cardinals would have to be reminiscent of his stellar 2015-19 work, rather than the below-average output of his 48-game 2020 campaign.  He did play through a shoulder injury for much of the 2020 season.  Even with a 5-WAR 2021, Arenado might prefer to stick with the certainty of his current contract rather than chase a sixth guaranteed year.  Arenado is represented by Wasserman.

7.  Freddie Freeman.  Freeman had received MVP votes in five separate seasons prior to 2020, and despite a July COVID positive he went on to win the award.  He’s inarguably one of the top eight hitters in baseball right now, and possibly better than that.  Freeman signed a record contract extension for his service class back in 2014, which is why he’s scheduled to reach free agency as a 32-year-old.  Paying him through age 36 would mean a five-year term.  The Athletic’s David O’Brien has made it clear Freeman is highly unlikely to leave the Braves, so perhaps he’ll be surrendering his place on this list before long.  Freeman is represented by Excel Sports Management.

8.  Kris Bryant.  It seems odd to put Bryant this low, as he put up a 4.8 WAR season as recently as 2019.  At that point a free agent contract below $200MM would have seemed silly, but Bryant floundered in an injury-marred 2020 season and bears a 3-WAR projection heading into his age-29 campaign.  His defensive work at third base rates somewhere around average, and he’s generally held his own in the outfield corners.

It’s possible Bryant peaked early, with a 20.7 WAR total over his first three seasons that placed him on a Hall of Fame trajectory.  It’s also possible there are many more 130 wRC+ seasons left in his bat, and he’ll be a cornerstone in someone’s lineup.  Despite losing a grievance against the Cubs for manipulating his service time, and more recently enduring trade rumors, Bryant remains open to contract extension offers from the North Siders.  He seems more likely to hit the open market following a critical 2021 season.  Bryant is represented by the Boras Corporation.

9.  Michael Conforto.  Conforto is easily one of the 30 best hitters in baseball, and with his recent excellent work a case can be made for top 20.  Though the Mets gave him some time in center field in 2017-19, he fits best in a corner.  It’s been a while since a non-superstar corner outfielder has landed a six-year deal in free agency, but that figures to be a target for Conforto in light of George Springer’s contract.  Interestingly, Mets president Sandy Alderson told reporters recently that one reason the team stopped at five years in the Springer bidding was that going to six would have made it harder to extend Conforto.

Conforto will be a full 29 months younger on Opening Day 2022 than Springer will be this year.  So there’s a case to go to a sixth or even seventh year for Conforto, though he’s generally not as center field capable as Springer.  As with Lindor, the Mets may look to hammer something out before the season begins.  Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation.

10.  Clayton Kershaw.  Despite a Hall of Fame worthy 13-year career, Kershaw is only about to turn 33 years old.  As of last month, though, he was non-committal about even playing in 2022 before later saying he has “a few years left in the tank.” Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman told Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, “Obviously, it’s personal for him and Ellen, but I feel like all is right in the world if he finishes his career, whenever that is, in however many years, as a Dodger.” As Castillo notes, it would certainly be appealing to Kershaw to play close to home for the Rangers next year.

If it’s only a two-horse race and Kershaw is not likely to chase the money, perhaps his earning power is diminished.  But a four-year contract paying him through age 37 wouldn’t be unreasonable, if he wants to play that long.  Kershaw may prefer the flexibility of a two or three-year pact.  Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Honorable mentions

At this point, generally the potential for a $100MM contract gets a player onto this list.  I see three more players who could get there: Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard.  Players such as Lance McCullers Jr., Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Dylan Bundy, Anthony Rizzo, and Lance Lynn might comprise the next tier.

Injury Notes: Realmuto, Grisham, Inciarte, Romine, Guzman

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J.T. Realmuto has been cleared for baseball activities, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury).  Realmuto’s tasks today included hitting off a tee and making 40 throws from 90-foot distances, as the catcher continues to work his way back from a right thumb fracture.  There is some optimism that Realmuto will be ready to go for the Phillies’ opener on April 1, with Salisbury writing that the club could take it easy with Realmuto’s playing time over the season’s first week or so, should Realmuto still need a bit of prep time.

A brief injured list to begin the season also isn’t out of the question for Realmuto, as with backdating, he would only miss the first six games.  Backup catcher Andrew Knapp would step in as the interim starter, though finding a second catcher could be a little complicated.  Rafael Marchan (the only other catcher on the 40-man roster) is battling a hamstring problem, so the Phillies could need to open up a 40-man space to find room for Jeff Mathis or Christian Bethancourt, both in camp on minor league deals.

More injury updates from around baseball….

  • Padres outfielder Trent Grisham left today’s game with what manager Jayce Tingler called “a slight strain in his hamstring.”  Grisham didn’t think the injury was terribly serious, but Tingler told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters that Grisham will be re-evaluated tomorrow.  Grisham enjoyed a breakout season in 2020 that included a Gold Glove, and while the Padres have a lot of depth, they won’t be able to easily cover center field if Grisham’s hamstring lands him on the IL.  Jurickson Profar might be the top fill-in choice, as Profar has been getting some work in center field this spring.
  • Ender Inciarte has been hampered by a thumb injury that has kept him out of action since March 4.  Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that Inciarte is “progressing, but he’s not to the point he can go out and get a game at-bat right now, so we’ll have to see.”  As Burns notes, star prospect Cristian Pache was already looking like a strong bet to break camp with the team, and an Inciarte absence would all but assure Pache of a spot on the Opening Day roster.  Inciarte hit only .190/.262/.250 over 131 PA in 2020, and is now entering the last guaranteed year of his contract.  With Pache and another noteworthy prospect in Drew Waters both knocking on the door for MLB playing time, Inciarte might be in his final year in Atlanta even if he does have a bounce-back season.
  • Cubs catcher Austin Romine hasn’t played since the weekend due to a right knee sprain, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets.  While the problem isn’t considered to be too serious, there isn’t yet any plan for when Romine could return to action.  The veteran catcher signed a one-year, $1.5MM free agent deal to act as Willson Contreras’ backup this season.  Should Romine have to miss any time, veteran Jose Lobaton (in camp on a minors contract) would likely get the call, though the Cubs would have to make another move to add Lobaton to the 40-man roster.
  • Marlins righty Jorge Guzman is battling elbow inflammation and will be “out for a bit” of time, GM Kim Ng told the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson (Twitter link) and other reporters.  The hard-throwing Guzman was acquired as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade in December 2017, and he ranked 87th on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list prior to the 2018 season.  Guzman made his MLB debut in cup-of-coffee fashion in 2020, tossing one inning and allowing two homers.

Contract Renewals: Gallen, Lewis, Alonso, McNeil, Anderson

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As a standard course of business every spring, teams reach agreement on contracts with their pre-arbitration players.  Since pre-arb players have virtually no negotiating leverage, their salaries aren’t far beyond the MLB minimum ($570.5K), and most teams now adopt a particular formula for assigning modest raises to pre-arbitration players who have performed above and beyond expectations.

When a player doesn’t accept this agreement, it has no change on his contractual status with the team.  It just means that his contract is “renewed,” and the team will impose the player’s salary for the coming season.  For a further explanation of the renewal process, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd provided an outline in a YouTube video last year.

Why would a player not accept the terms of his team’s raise?  Often, it is just a matter of “principle,” as Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty (who had his last two pre-arbitration salaries renewed) said last year, as a player who excels during a season simply feels he is worth more than the minor raise a team is offering.  Occasionally, you’ll see a player look for a more substantive raise, as Mike Trout’s camp asked for a $1MM salary for the 2013 season, following a 2012 campaign that saw Trout finish second in AL MVP voting in his first full year in the big leagues.

While Trout didn’t get his $1MM ask, some clubs have indeed rewarded players with pre-arb salaries worth well above (by a few hundred thousand dollars, in some cases) the minimum, both as a nod to performance and perhaps as a way to continue good relations with a player and his agent in advance of extension talks.

Here is a list of players whose contracts have been renewed for the 2021 season.  As you’ll note, the members of this group have already enjoyed significant early-career success.

  • Zac Gallen: The Diamondbacks right-hander finished ninth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2020, and has a 2.78 ERA over 152 career MLB innings.
  • Kyle Lewis: The Mariners outfielder took a renewal on the heels of his Rookie Of The Year campaign.
  • Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil: The two Mets regulars took renewals.  As noted by Mike Puma of the New York Post, Alonso’s 2019 NL Rookie Of The Year campaign got him a larger-than-expected salary bump to $652,521 for the 2020 season “as a goodwill gesture” from the team.
  • Ian Anderson: The Braves righty made a big impact in his first MLB season, with a 1.95 ERA over 32 1/3 innings.  Anderson also has the least amount of big league service time (0.094 days) of any player on this list.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Anderson will earn $575K while in the majors and $142,978 in the minor leagues.

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