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The Dodgers’ Underappreciated 2018 Trade Heist

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Just before the calendar flipped from 2018 to 2019, the Dodgers and Reds formally executed a deal that sent short-term veterans to Cincinnati and prospects to Los Angeles … a bit of an oddity in and of itself, given the expectations and eventual results for those two clubs in 2019. The ever-fascinating Yasiel Puig! Former star Matt Kemp, fresh off of a resurgent ’18 effort! Excellent lefty Alex Wood, probably the best present-talent player in the deal! And going in the other direction: Homer Bailey, the guy (some fans allege) the Reds chose to keep over Johnny Cueto!

For a trade that involved some huge names, this one didn’t get a ton of hype at the time. And it faded from memory rather quickly, in no small part because the most visible players in the deal ended up in other uniforms. That’s not to say there weren’t some big moments along the way, it’s just … the most memorable one occurred minutes after Puig was traded away to the Indians, when he took part in an on-field brawl with his technically former Reds teammates.

Looking back on the deal, you can see what the Reds were trying to accomplish and why they hoped it would work out. But it stung in retrospect, even with Puig helping the club secure the services of Trevor Bauer in that summer swap. More than a loss for the Reds, though, it stands out as a masterstroke by the Dodgers, who didn’t miss the veteran talent they parted with, re-filled their farm system, saved money, and gained payroll flexibility.

Let’s break it all back down and see what precisely each side got and gave up …

Dodgers Receive

  • Homer Bailey, SP: one year, $23MM + $5MM buyout
  • Josiah Gray, SP: 6+ seasons of control; not yet on 40-man roster
  • Jeter Downs, INF: 6+ seasons of control; not yet on 40-man roster

Reds Receive

  • Matt Kemp, OF: one year, $21.5MM
  • Yasiel Puig, OF: one year, $9.7MM
  • Alex Wood, SP: one year, $9.65MM
  • Kyle Farmer, C/INF: 5 seasons of control; pre-arbitration
  • $7MM cash

So, the Dodgers took on $28MM in salary and sent another $7MM to Cincinnati, while the Reds absorbed $40.85MM in 2019 spending obligations.

You can see how the Reds convinced themselves to gamble some young talent here. They added less than $6MM in payroll obligations to get a trio of veterans who had long track records of success. In 2018, Puig turned in a 123 wRC+ effort while Kemp hit at a nearly identical rate (122 wRC+). Wood spun 151 2/3 innings of 3.68 ERA ball and had been even better the season prior. Farmer was a cheap and useful player to sweeten the pot. Even if the Cincinnati club didn’t break out, the front office likely felt it’d be able to recoup some value at the deadline (which, to an extent, it did).

On the Dodgers’ side, there was an added piece of value. Competitive balance tax considerations were of no concern to the lower-spending Redlegs, but the Los Angeles organization strongly preferred to stay under the luxury line. Bailey’s contract helped make that possible, because the average annual value of his deal was much lower than the remaining cash he was actually owed. As it turns out, the Dodgers skated in just under the $206MM payroll line. In addition to moving the salaries of Puig and Wood, changing out Kemp money ($20MM CBT hit) for Bailey money ($17.5MM) made the difference.

That critical piece of accounting work was accomplished without really taking anything from the Reds at all, leaving the Dodgers room to structure a swap that brought in serious prospect value. Both Gray and Downs were seen as solid talents at the time of the deal, but they’ve only boosted their stock since.

After one year of added seasoning, we now know, the Dodgers secured two leaguewide top-100 prospects out of this deal. Gray rocketed through the low minors to finish the 2019 season at Double-A, where he ran up 39 1/3 innings of 2.75 ERA pitching in his age-21 campaign. He’s now a significant part of the Dodgers’ near-term rotation picture.

Downs also took off and reached the penultimate level of the minors in his first (and, it turns out, only) season in the Los Angeles organization. The middle infielder spent most of the season pummeling High-A pitching and ended the campaign with a cumulative .276/.362/.526 slash and 24 home runs through 535 plate appearances. The Dodgers preferred to keep Downs, but he ended up being a necessary piece of the team’s bold bid to add superstar Mookie Betts. When the original deal fell apart, the club agreed to a modified pact that sent Downs to the Red Sox as the key prospect asset.

The original Dodgers-Reds trade unquestionably delivered a hit to the Dodgers’ 2019 talent pool. Otherwise, they never would’ve been able to pull it off. But the club’s immense depth left a robust mix in both the outfield and the rotation. The Dodgers rightly anticipated they’d be just fine with losing this trio of players. Sure enough, the club led all of baseball in outfield WAR and tied for second in the rotation.

Funny enough, this one could’ve worked out even better for the Dodgers. Baseball being the bizarre game that it is, Bailey actually ended up being the most productive player in this deal in 2019. He contributed 2.0 rWAR/2.9 fWAR … though not to the Dodgers, who cut him loose after the swap. Bailey caught on with the Royals and ended up being acquired by the Athletics, throwing well enough to earn a $7MM contract with the Twins this winter. To be fair, even had the Dodgers given it a shot, they may not have had room for Bailey on their already loaded staff.

The others involved didn’t fare as well, last season or in free agency. Puig didn’t play quite to expectations before the mid-summer trade. He remains the best free agent that has yet to sign. Kemp was cut loose after a brutal early showing and is now on a minor-league pact with the Marlins. And Wood? He missed most of 2019 with injury, severely curtailing the Reds’ side of this deal. But he did return late in the season, just enough to show he’s back to health … and to earn a return to Los Angeles on an incentive-laden, $4MM deal that could work out quite nicely for the Dodgers if he can return to form.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yadier Molina Intends To Play Beyond 2020, Whether Or Not With Cardinals

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In an interesting twist on the post-2020 catching market, long-time Cardinals backstop Yadier Molina tells ESPN.com’s Marly Rivera that he’s open to playing in another uniform if and when he reaches free agency.

That’s quite a different stance than the one Molina announced just a few months ago. He made clear then that he was interested in continuing to play, but only in St. Louis, where he has been a fixture behind the dish since 2005. The team reciprocated and launched extension talks that seemed likely to come to fruition.

Now? Molina explains to Rivera that “the situation with this pandemic has changed everything.” While he still prefers to remain with the Cards — the only team he has ever played for — the likely future Hall of Famer says he’s “willing to go into free agency” and find another organization.

It seems the change of heart is less about Molina’s feelings towards the team than it is his feelings for the game of baseball itself. He says he’d like to “have that conversation” again about an extension with the Cardinals, at least once baseball finally starts back up. And Molina says he’s “confident” an agreement will come together.

But the time away from the game has also convinced Molina he wants to keep going past a (likely shortened) 2020 campaign.  In fact, the 37-year-old says he intends to keep playing for two more seasons no matter the outcome of his talks with the Cards.

Latest Tigers News & Notes

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Picking first in the upcoming draft won’t be quite as advantageous as usual, as the Tigers will only have between five and ten rounds to utilize their advantage. But it’s still an exciting opportunity to infuse big-time talent into an organization that has patiently awaited a return to competitiveness. The Tigers are sorting through a long list of possibilities; you can familiarize yourself with many of them by checking out Baseball America’s first top 500 draft prospect list.

Here’s the latest from the Detroit organization:

  • Tigers analytics chief Jay Sartori held an interesting chat with Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic (subscription link) about the team’s efforts to construct an analytics department over the past several years. He now oversees a “robust staff,” he says, after an “incremental” building process that started from a mostly blank slate. Sartori came aboard in November of 2015, not long after Al Avila was hired as GM. So what are the Tigers focused on in this realm? Sartori says it’s the question of how to make “complicated concepts and data sets and pieces of information readily accessible to staff and players?”
  • Making analytics work for ballplayers is now a big part of the job for MLB coaches. Tigers hitting coach Joe Vavra acknowledged that, saying that he’s working on “challenging [hitters] to come out of their comfort zone a little bit” when it comes to data and advanced analysis, as Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported recently. Applying analytics requires “baby steps” at the start, says Vavra, and the organization is trying to get its players to take as many as possible during the present hiatus. Otherwise, the team is handling all its players differently. For some, Vavra is helping to oversee “rather major adjustments to your mechanics and your swing;” for others, it’s mostly a matter of maintaining conditioning.
  • Detroit pitching coach Rick Anderson also just chatted with media, as Stavenhagen covers in a Twitter thread. Anderson says it was disappointing to see Spring Training halted because he wanted to see more of the team’s slate of prized upper-level pitching prospects. Even more worrying, perhaps, is the lack of anticipated minor-league competition. The organization doesn’t seem to have a clear idea yet as to how it’ll make up for the lost developmental opportunity, though obviously that’s an industry-wide issue.
  • Though the focus remains largely on the future, the Tigers did go out and make some notable potential improvements to the MLB infield mix. McCosky examines a unit that now includes anticipated regular veterans in most spots. C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, and Austin Romine are slated to earn a combined $16.3MM — at least, in a full 2020 season. The shortstop position was due to feature Niko Goodrum and Jordy Mercer, with third base handled by Jeimer Candelario and/or other unproven players such as Dawel Lugo and Isaac Paredes. While most of the options on the left side of the infield will remain under team control beyond 2020, the new additions were all on one-year pacts. McCosky looks at the potential line of succession in all areas.

Latest On MLB Teams’ Cost-Cutting Efforts

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There’s a spreading optimism — or, at least, a spread of reporting about optimism — regarding the return of baseball in 2020. But the pandemic shutdown has already stung MLB teams and the near-term revenue prospects remain poor, even if a television-only campaign is launched.

Unsurprisingly, even as teams prepare to refund fans for games that won’t be played as expected, we’re seeing enhanced efforts on the part of MLB organizations to cut costs. As Pirates GM Ben Cherington put it (via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), “revenues aren’t coming in” but “cash is still going out.”

The notoriously tight-fisted Bucs have enacted austerity policies. But sources tell Mackey that the team isn’t among those in the roughest shape financially around the game. The Pirates have stopped 401(k) contributions and suspended fellowship/internship programs while top-level leaders take reductions in pay. Cherington says “the full expectation is that [401(k)] contribution will go back into effect as soon as possible,” and emphasized that the hope was to “find some savings without too much impact on people and their everyday lives.”

None of these sorts of measures are pleasant, but Pirates employees seem to be in better stead than those of the Rays. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the low-budget Tampa Bay outfit has become the first MLB organization “to implement aggressive expense cutting moves” — in particular, furloughing some full-time employees and cutting the pay of others that earn above a certain threshold.

The Rays are covering health insurance for furloughed staff and the hope remains to bring many jobs back online. But the move reflects the stark realities of the sport in the era of COVID-19. Per Topkin, the top organizational leadership advised employees of concern that the revenue drag could continue for years to come.

Like the Rays, the Athletics have been scrimping and saving while working through difficult new-ballpark negotiations and planning. With those efforts now confronted by an entirely new sort of hurdle, and the near-term revenue outlook plummeting, the Oakland club is considering cuts of its own, according to Ken Rosenthal and Alex Coffey of The Athletic (subscription link). The A’s may actually be contemplating something rather more aggressive than what the Rays just enacted. The Athletic reports that the Oakland org is “discussing extensive layoffs” and could ultimately carry a “significantly smaller staff on both the business and baseball sides.”

Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle also examines the A’s situation. Employees say they have no idea what to expect and the team hasn’t responded to requests for comment. It remains to be seen how the situation will be handled, but with every other team in the league having already charted a path, the silence is ominous. Slusser doesn’t offer a definitive prediction, but does warn: “don’t be surprised” if major cuts occur.

These three teams may be pressed into action sooner than some peers, but the issues aren’t limited to lower-budget organizations. As Mackey writes in the above-linked post, and as we have covered in recent weeks, several other clubs have also pursued cost-reduction strategies that impact employees. And The Athletic reports that multiple teams around the league have had some level of internal discussion of major changes to their operations. At the moment, every team in baseball aside from the A’s and Rays has promised to retain full-time employees through the end of May. Hopefully, there’ll be sufficient clarity and optimism in the outlook at that point to avoid broader cuts.

Latest On Jung Ho Kang

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Professional baseball may not have seen the last of Jung Ho Kang. The infielder has asked to be taken off the “voluntary retired” list for the Korea Baseball Organization, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News tweets. However, because Kang has been arrested for driving under the influence three times, it may be a while before he plays in the KBO. As Yoo notes, the KBO subjects players with three or more DUI arrests to at least a three-year suspension.

At this point, Kang may be waving the white flag on his major league career. Now 33 years old, Kang emigrated from Korea prior to the 2015 season, signing a four-year guarantee worth $11MM. The deal worked out OK for Pittsburgh on the field, as Kang batted a solidly above-average .254/.331/.466 with 46 home runs and accounted for 4.9 fWAR across 1,028 plate appearances over the course of four seasons. However, off-field issues were an unfortunate part of the package. Along with his problems with alcohol, Kang was accused of sexual assault in June 2016. He sat out the entire 2017 season after one of his DUI arrests in his homeland of South Korea.

Kang did return last season to log a decent sample of plate appearances (185), but he slumped to a .169/.222/.395 line. The Pirates then released him in the first week of August. The division-rival Brewers showed interest in Kang shortly after that, but it has been radio silence for the most part since the Bucs moved on from him.

Despite the good offensive numbers he has posted in the majors, it doesn’t seem likely that Kang will play in the league in the immediate future. Even a return to the field in the KBO could be out of the question if a three-year ban’s on the table. Kang was quite successful there earlier in his career, though, as he batted .298/.383/.504 in 3,560 PA.

MLBTR Poll: A 3-Division Plan

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Many ideas have been floated in regards to how a 2020 Major League Baseball season might work. We’ve seen two-, three-, five-, 10- and 12-state plans come to the fore. The possibility of every major league team playing in its home stadium without spectators has also been mentioned. The latest unconventional suggestion became public Tuesday, when Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported MLB could start sometime in late June or early July and scrap the traditional American and National Leagues for a season and shift to a three-division plan consisting of 10 teams apiece. Here’s how it would shake out…

East:

  • Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Nationals, Orioles, Phillies, Pirates, Blue Jays, Rays, Marlins

West:

  • Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Athletics, Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Rangers, Astros, Mariners

Central:

  • Cubs, White Sox, Brewers, Cardinals, Royals, Reds, Indians, Twins, Braves, Tigers

The 10 teams in each division would only play one another during the regular season, so you wouldn’t see, say, the rival Mets and Braves match up. It’s a bizarre setup for those accustomed to a six-division league, but everybody’s health permitting, wouldn’t a weird baseball season be better than no baseball season at all? What do you think about this idea? (Poll link for app users)

Replacing An MVP-Contending Shortstop

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Because of the coronavirus, the Athletics are facing at least one very sad possibility: Shortstop Marcus Semien may never wear their uniform again. Whether or not any kind of season happens, Semien will be eligible to reach free agency next winter. He’ll be among the most coveted players available, and the low-budget Athletics have never been known for splurging on anyone. The largest guarantee they’ve ever given out still belongs to former third baseman Eric Chavez, whom they signed to a $66MM guarantee way back in 2004. And frankly, if any one player on the current A’s is going to exceed that amount sometime soon, third baseman Matt Chapman is probably a better candidate than Semien.

Now, saying Oakland will probably prioritize Chapman isn’t a knock on Semien. But Semien’s a couple years older – his 30th birthday is in September, while Chapman just turned 27 today – and the A’s have less time to lock him up with a potential trip to free agency looming.

Should Semien walk, he’d be an enormous loss for the club. Originally acquired from the White Sox in a 2014 trade, Semien has gradually evolved into an elite shortstop. He was a decent player for the A’s from 2015-18, a four-year, 2,311-plate appearance stretch in which he accumulated 9.1 fWAR, but was only a league-average hitter throughout.

Semien truly turned a corner last season during a near-American League Most Valuable Player effort. He slashed .285/.369/.522 with 33 home runs and 10 stolen bases en route to 137 wRC+, the second-highest number among all full-time shortstops (only Boston’s Xander Bogaerts fared better). And while Semien’s work at short drew criticism in his younger days, 2019 represented his second straight resoundingly successful year as a defender. He put up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and managed a 6.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. The entire package was good for 7.6 fWAR, the fifth-highest amount in the majors and one that helped him to a third-place finish in AL MVP balloting behind Mike Trout and Alex Bregman.

It’s just about impossible to immediately replace what Semien brought to the table last season, but Oakland may soon have to make the attempt. The question is: How? As mentioned, the A’s aren’t big spenders. That said, it doesn’t seem crazy to think they could at least make an effort on Andrelton Simmons or Didi Gregorius, the next best free-agent shortstops in the upcoming winter’s class, if they only command short-term contracts. The rest of the market should be decidedly less inspiring at the position, but Oakland could plug in someone like Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias as affordable stopgaps capable of offering roughly league-average WAR totals.  As for trades, would the A’s dare be aggressive enough to push their chips to the table for someone like Francisco Lindor of the Indians or the Rockies’ Trevor Story, free agents-to-be after 2021 who would surely be rentals for them?

Alternatively, there’s the chance of adding a second baseman via trade or free agency and shifting an in-house player to short. The trouble is that the A’s, Semien aside, don’t have any proven shortstop options from within their ranks. Franklin Barreto was once a premium middle infield prospect, but he hasn’t panned out so far, and he didn’t play much short in the minors from 2017-19. Sheldon Neuse appeared in all of nine minor league games there last season. Jorge Mateo has quite a bit of minors experience in the spot, but he hasn’t inspired at the plate. Vimael Machin’s a Rule 5 pick, and seldom do they turn into valuable performers. Prospects like Nick Allen or Logan Davidson could eventually be the solution, though neither has even gotten to Double-A yet.

Every team is in a difficult position as a result of the pandemic, but Oakland ranks near the top. The Athletics are a back-to-back 97-win team who, as constructed, could compete for a World Series championship. Semien’s an important part of that, though, and nobody knows whether he’ll play for the club again. But regardless of whether a season happens, the A’s may be mere months away from facing the unenviable task of trying to replace a player who has become a star in their uniform.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Alec Bohm Hires Boras Corporation

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Phillies third base prospect Alec Bohm has changed representation and is now a client of the Boras Corporation, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. The switch has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

The Phillies made a big investment in Bohm, formerly with Wichita State, when they selected him third overall in the 2018 draft. The move has paid off so far, at least at the minor league level, where Bohm has thrived. MLB.com’s 30th-ranked prospect, Bohm ran roughshod over Single-A and High-A ball pitching last season before earning a promotion to Double-A and also holding his own there. He took 270 trips to the plate and batted .269/.344/.500 (146 wRC+) with 14 home runs, a .231 isolated power number, and 38 strikeouts against 28 walks.

If a minor league season gets underway in 2020, Bohm should make his Triple-A debut with Lehigh Valley. And if he comes close to keeping up his current pace, it won’t be long before Bohm plays a role in Philly sometime soon. The Phillies are looking for an answer at third after Maikel Franco, now a member of the Royals, flamed out. Middle infielder Jean Segura and utility player Scott Kingery look like their top hot corner options right now, but the hope is that Bohm will take the reins in the near future.

Latest On 2020 MLB Draft

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Pushing the draft back to July because of the coronavirus has been on the table since March, but it appears the event will take place in its typical month after all. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the draft is still slated to occur June 10 – the date it was supposed to start in the first place – though it will be held virtually. Before the pandemic reared its ugly head, Omaha had been scheduled to host it from June 10-12.

[RELATED: Amateur Draft Pool Allocations]

The fact that the draft will happen virtually will be just one of the unusual aspects of this year’s event (notably, the National Football League just completed its own virtual draft last weekend). Normally 40 rounds, MLB’s draft will last just five or 10 this summer, as Craig Mish of SportsGrid tweets. Major League Baseball and the MLBPA signed off on a truncated version in the agreement they reached a month ago.

A shortened draft will obviously have a significant effect on a large number of amateur players. For instance, some high schoolers may now be more inclined to play college baseball next season, while certain college juniors who might have entered a normal draft could stay in school for another year and try their luck in 2021. There will also be a deeper pool than ever of undrafted talent.

As part of their deal, the league and the union limited undrafted players’ signing bonuses to a maximum of $20K. Meanwhile, drafted players’ up-front money will be capped at $100K in 2020, with the rest to be distributed in two equal installments from 2021-22.

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