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Remaining Needs: AL East

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With the new year upon us, MLBTR is going through all 30 teams’ remaining needs by division.  We’ve already checked in on the NL East, AL West, AL Central, NL Central, and NL West. That leaves the American League East …

Baltimore Orioles [Offseason Outlook]

Outside of dealing away Dylan Bundy, it has been a quiet winter for sophomore GM Mike Elias. There just isn’t much pressing roster-building work to be done for a club that was badly in need of a full rebuild when Elias took the helm.

More than anything, the O’s will spend the next few weeks exploring further trade possibilities. Reliever Mychal Givens and slugger Trey Mancini are obvious candidates to be dealt. Hanser Alberto and a few others could also conceivably be of interest elsewhere.

Other than filling in for any further departures, the O’s still need to add a few pieces — both to keep some standard of MLB capabilities and to seek upside that might be turned into trade capital. The departure of Jonathan Villar leaves an opening at shortstop that hasn’t yet been filled. (Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Richie Martin, ought to get some dearly missed Triple-A seasoning.) The O’s could easily find space for a buy-low option at third base or the corner outfield as well. Adding Kohl Stewart and a pair of Rule 5 hurlers helps the pitching depth picture, but there’s still plenty of room to add arms onto the roster.

Boston Red Sox [Offseason Outlook]

Incoming chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was tasked with getting the Sox beneath the luxury line but staying competitive. He has taken several steps towards that goal by buying low on Martin Perez and Jose Peraza. Standing alone, however, those deals only add salary to the MLB roster.

It’d be a big surprise at this point if the Boston organization doesn’t swing a significant trade or two over the next several weeks. David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr. seem likeliest to be dealt, though Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and others probably can’t be ruled out entirely.

Back-filling for any departures will be a top priority. No matter who leaves, Bloom will be hunting for value in the bullpen, eyeing up rotation depth, and exploring bench improvements. The Sox could still stand to add another piece to the first base mix (perhaps a left-handed hitter to pair with Michael Chavis) and are hurting for catching depth. Just how much flexibility Bloom will have to pursue new adds will depend upon how much salary he sheds via trade.

New York Yankees [Offseason Outlook]

The one massive priority of the offseason was achieved when Gerrit Cole went rooting around his parents’ basement to dig up the sign he brought to Yankee Stadium as a kid. (“Mom! Where’s my sign?!?!”) Retaining Brett Gardner and adding Erik Kratz for depth also checked boxes.

Any follow-ups to the Cole signing will surely feel like lesser events. But they could yet make a big impact. The Yanks don’t really need anything, but have dabbled with some elite relievers and may have a major strike up their sleeve. There’s some amount of roster pressure involving young power hitters Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier, but they are assets the Yanks will surely put to use on the field or via trade. Moving J.A. Happ would help with payroll management.

Tampa Bay Rays [Offseason Outlook]

The Rays have not only exemplified, but driven baseball’s de-formalization of roles. Scanning their present roster really drives this fact home. The team is laden with multi-functional players and situational possibilities. This applies to both pitchers and hitters.

In theory, the Rays could add just about any player they like and make it work. Value is paramount. Those considerations explain the team’s pursuit of left-handed-hitting center fielder Shogo Akiyama despite the presence of Kevin Kiermaier, not to mention the addition of countrymate Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, who joins a roster with quite a few other quality lefty bats.

Without any glaring need, per se, the Rays can perhaps be expected to keep doing what they do. We’ve see this organization hammer out somewhat complicated trades involving under-the-radar players time and time again. But we’ve also seen targeted gambles, such as last winter’s wise inking of Charlie Morton. With the powerhouse Yankees cresting, the Rays will need to press hard — and consider going outside of their comfort zone — to add a finishing piece or two to this roster. Given the versatility on hand, just about any high-value opportunity seems plausible.

Toronto Blue Jays [Offseason Outlook]

Public pressure can’t be the sole explanation for the Jays’ big strike for Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it surely played a role. Now that Ryu, Tanner Roark, and others have been installed in a revamped rotation, the front office can breathe a bit easier.

That’s a far sight from declaring this roster a potential winner. But it does seem to have a fair bit of upside in the form of young, elite talent and post-hype bounceback candidates. The position-player unit is littered with names that populated top prospect lists. It’s an ultra high-variance mix, which seems generally appropriate for this stage of the organization’s rebuild.

It’s certainly arguable the Toronto org ought to grab an open-market option or two in favor of some of its preexisting players. The corner outfield seems particularly susceptible of improvement, though the Jays would rather not fully block some of the guys they’ve picked up in recent years. The other interesting area is the bullpen, which is loaded up with uncertainty … and which includes one of the top trade candidates on the market. It’d obviously hurt the team’s 2020 outlook to move Ken Giles, but it’s awfully tough to bypass a return — especially with what appears to be a favorable market situation — for a guy who’ll reach free agency at season’s end.

Will Harris: Overlooked Free Agent?

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For the most part, the upper end of the free-agent relief market emptied out quickly this offseason. Aroldis Chapman stuck with the Yankees, Will Smith and Chris Martin signed with the Braves, Drew Pomeranz reunited with the Padres, and Dellin Betances switched from the Yanks to the crosstown rival Mets. Now, going by the contract predictions MLBTR made at the beginning of the offseason, former Astros right-hander Will Harris looks like the No. 1 reliever left on a board that also includes Daniel Hudson, Steve Cishek and Craig Stammen near the top of a shrinking class. We called for a two-year, $18MM payday for Harris, and although that still seems reasonable, he hasn’t generated much public attention this winter.

Almost two months since free agency opened, just one team – Minnesota – has come up as a rumored suitor for Harris. There could be unreported clubs chasing Harris, though it’s surprising that there hasn’t been more speculation centering on the 35-year-old. After all, since his 2013 breakout with the Diamondbacks, not many relievers have been more productive. Going back to then, Harris has pitched to a 2.59 ERA/2.97 FIP with 9.58 K/9, 2.28 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 378 2/3 innings.

There was no let-up last season for Harris, who posted a career-best 1.50 ERA in 60 frames. Judging relievers by ERA is dangerous, granted, and Harris was fortunate to prevent runs at such a stingy rate. But the rest of his numbers were also quite impressive, as he managed a 3.15 FIP/3.04 xFIP/3.18 SIERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 54.6 percent grounder rate.

Altough Harris didn’t blow anyone away with his cutter-curve mix, both pitches were among the best of their kind, according to FanGraphs. Excellent spin rates had something to do with it. Harris ranked in the game’s 96th percentile in fastball spin and in its 86th percentile with the curve, per Statcast. Hitters had immense difficulty squaring up either offering, as shown by the lack of damaging contact Harris surrendered. He finished in the majors’ 84th percentile in hard-hit rate and in the 89th percentile in expected weighted on-base average against.

Once the playoffs rolled around, Harris’ lights-out performance continued. It’s true the Nationals did get the better of Harris in their Game 6 and 7 World Series wins over Houston, which wasn’t the way he wanted to go out last season. Still, Harris concluded the postseason with 9 2/3 innings of two-run ball, striking out 11 and issuing just one walk along the way.

Harris undoubtedly made a strong case for a quality payday throughout the year, but with 2019 about to turn to 2020, he remains on the market. Youth isn’t on Harris’ side, of course, and he doesn’t carry much experience as a closer. Those factors could be scaring off some teams, but as a hurler who has averaged 50-plus innings of terrific results for the past seven seasons, he has established himself as a high-end setup man. Perhaps Harris will be paid accordingly when the new year arrives.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Transactions: 12/30/19

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization announced the re-signing of outfielder Mel Rojas Jr., Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net tweets. Rojas entered the pro ranks as a third-round pick of the Pirates in 2010, but he didn’t reach the majors with the Bucs or his next team, the Braves, through 2017. He then went to Korea and has since established himself as a serious offensive threat, having combined for 85 home runs over 1,190 plate appearances. The 29-year-old Rojas totaled 24 HRs and recorded a .322/.381/.530 line across 578 PA in 2019, and had been hoping to parlay that production into a guaranteed contract with a major league team this offseason. Instead, he’ll remain in the KBO.

Trade Candidate: Dominic Smith

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Plenty went wrong for the Mets in 2019, their third straight season without a playoff berth, but the oft-maligned franchise nonetheless turned in a fairly respectable campaign. They got off the mat after an awful start to win 86 games, right-hander Jacob deGrom won his second consecutive National League Cy Young Award, and slugging first baseman Pete Alonso burst on the scene to mash 53 home runs en route to NL Rookie of the Year honors. Aside from Alonso, there were other legitimately encouraging developments among the Mets’ position player group, including the performance of fellow first baseman Dominic Smith.

It appeared entering the season that Smith was teetering on the brink of irrelevance, even though he wasn’t far removed from his days as a touted prospect. The 11th overall pick of the Mets in 2013, Smith debuted in the majors in 2017 as one of the game’s 100 best farmhands, but he fell way short of the hype at the outset of his career.

From 2017-18, a 332-plate appearance span, the lefty-swinging Smith put up a dismal .210/.259/.406 batting line. Smith’s minus-1.0 fWAR in that time frame ranked dead last among all 79 Mets who racked up at-bats, and he also struggled badly at the Triple-A level during the latter of the two seasons. As a result, fans, media and maybe even the organization were down on Smith, though he came back in 2019 to produce far better results than the average major league hitter.

Alonso’s presence and injuries to Smith helped keep him from playing a full season, but he still impressed during an 89-game, 197-PA sample. Playing his age-24 season, Smith batted .282/.355/.525 (133 wRC+) with 11 home runs and a lofty .243 ISO. Plus, after combining for a 28.4 percent strikeout rate with a 5.4 percent walk rate during the prior two years, he made serious strides in those departments. Smith went down on strikes at a 22.3 percent clip and drew free passes 9.6 percent of the time. He also chased fewer pitches outside the zone, made more contact and was equally effective against southpaws (132 wRC+) and righties (133 wRC+), though his success versus same-handed pitchers came over a much smaller sample size.

While Smith did take real steps forward last season, it appears there was some good fortune involved. Smith finished the season with a .368 weighted on-base average, but his .327 xwOBA (via Statcast) didn’t measure up. Even if you’re unconcerned by that and regard Smith as someone who could be a long-term offensive linchpin, it’s up in the air whether he’ll play another game for the Mets. Consider: Alonso has first base on lockdown, there’s no designated hitter option in the NL, and although Smith did get most of his playing time last season in the corner outfield, he’s part of a logjam there for the Mets. Not only could Yoenis Cespedes come back after a couple injury-crushed seasons, but the corner OF-capable foursome of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis remains on hand. Those players’ presences could help push Smith to the trade block and out of Queens.

As mentioned, Smith’s coming off a season in which he made clear progress. He also has another pre-arbitration season left and isn’t on track to reach free agency until after the 2024 campaign. All of those factors should buoy Smith’s trade value, as should the dearth of high-end first basemen in free agency, yet he’s still not going to bring back any kind of haul. Smith’s position, his lack of a track record in the bigs and a lack of demand for first basemen have likely tamped down his appeal on the market. Ultimately, it seems possible New York will use Smith to get rid of one of its undesirable contracts (Jed Lowrie? Jeurys Familia?), as Ken Rosenthal recently reported the Mets and Rangers were in talks on such a deal. The Rangers still haven’t upgraded at first, where Ronald Guzman was a disaster in 2019, so they might remain interested in Smith. The Red Sox, Royals and Twins also make for a few debatable landing spots.

For now, Smith looks like one of the most logical trade candidates in baseball. However, if the Mets don’t receive an offer to their liking, they keep Smith as a bench player or stash him as depth in Triple-A ball. Smith still has a pair of minor league options left, but he seems overqualified for anything below the majors at this point. Regardless, it doesn’t appear Smith will be able to carve out a regular role for himself as a Met, so a trade could be the best move for his career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Should Rockies Shop Nolan Arenado?

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In five-time All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado, the Rockies unquestionably have one of the majors’ blue-chip players. At the same time, though, Arenado’s on-field value could place him among the game’s most appealing trade chips. The Rockies did make a franchise-record commitment last offseason to Arenado, adding a guaranteed seven years and $234MM to the $26MM he was already set to rake in during the 2019 campaign. Based on that, Arenado should be a member of the Rockies for the long haul, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they’ll go in another direction this winter.

[RELATED: Remaining Needs – NL West]

As of a few weeks ago, the Rockies and general manager Jeff Bridich were reportedly open to listening to offers for the 28-year-old. The Braves and Rangers, teams that still haven’t filled their third base needs as the new year approaches, showed interest thereafter in Arenado. Meanwhile, the Nationals, Phillies, Dodgers and maybe the Twins come to mind as teams that could at least kick the tires of Arenado if they lose out on the top free-agent third baseman left on the board, Josh Donaldson, or fail to swing a trade for someone like Kris Bryant of the Cubs. (Bryant looks like a more realistic trade candidate than Arenado right now, though the service-time grievance the former filed against the Cubs – does he have one year of control left or two? – has helped prevent his market from heating up thus far.)

On the other hand, considering Arenado has established himself as one of the sport’s most valuable players, Colorado would likely be content to keep him. Indeed, Buster Olney of ESPN has recently heard that the Rockies aren’t aggressively shopping Arenado. While the team was woeful last season during a 71-win showing, Arenado did help the Rox to playoff berths in each of the previous two years. So, Bridich could regard the Rockies’ failed 2019 as a fluke and look for a bounce-back effort from his Arenado-led roster next season.

Even if the Rockies are willing to part with Arenado, though, an offer they deem palatable may not be easy to find. After all, Arenado’s contract still contains a boatload of money – the deal he signed before last season hasn’t even kicked in yet, though it looks reasonable enough in light of fellow third baseman Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM pact with the Angels. Beyond that, Arenado has a full no-trade clause that gives him the right to veto any move. He also has the ability to opt out after the 2021 campaign, and if interested teams are worried he’ll take advantage of that, it’ll tamp down his trade value.

If not for Arenado’s opt-out clause, the Rockies would be in the catbird seat here. There wouldn’t be any real pressure to part with the face of their franchise and one of the greatest players they’ve ever had. But if the Rockies don’t expect to contend prior to Arenado’s opt-out chance, maybe they ought to market one of baseball’s leading superstars now.

(Poll link for app users)

Remaining Needs: NL West

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With the offseason almost two months old, MLBTR is going through all 30 teams’ remaining needs by division.  We’ve already checked in on the NL East, AL West, AL Central, and NL Central. Next up: the National League West.

Arizona Diamondbacks [Offseason Outlook]

The Snakes have overseen quite the busy offseason effort thus far. To an extent, though, the activity to date hints at more to come. If there’s an area that’s fully set, it’s the rotation … unless the organization decides to pull the trigger on a deal sending out pending free agent lefty Robbie Ray. That would be a strategic decision to turn a win-now asset into future value. It’s unlikely but not impossible that a hypothetical return would impact the immediate roster the way last year’s Paul Goldschmidt trade did.

The position-player mix could be settled, too, though it’s also possible to imagine the club adding another piece. In the event that the D-Backs find good value on a center field-capable 4th outfielder or a second/third baseman, they could shuffle the assignments of existing players accordingly. Otherwise, the bullpen unit still feels susceptible of improvement. If the Diamondbacks don’t find other ways of investing their remaining available payroll space, they could pick up one or more of the experienced late-inning arms still waiting around in free agency.

Colorado Rockies [Offseason Outlook]

For some teams, the remaining needs are largely the same as the preexisting needs. The Rox really haven’t done much of anything this winter, picking up well-traveled veteran catcher Drew Butera and taking low-cost shots on pitchers Tyler Kinley and Jose Mujica. Adding better options in those areas remains a priority, albeit a seemingly unfunded one.

If there’s a dramatic move to be made this winter, it’ll happen on the trade side. The Rockies are at least chatting with rivals about Nolan Arenado. No doubt they’re fielding calls on Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Trevor Story as well. And it still seems plausible to imagine Charlie Blackmon being made available as a means of alleviating the team’s payroll pressures, though we’ve seen no real indication of talks on the well-compensated outfielder.

Los Angeles Dodgers [Offseason Outlook]

What do you get for the roster that has everything? A bigger star, of course. That’s what the Dodgers have reportedly set out to find, eschewing marginal upgrades and allowing Hyun-Jin Ryu to depart via free agency while stalking bigger game.

With the open market now rather picked over, the Dodgers appear to be focused on structuring complicated trades involving some of the game’s best players. Francisco Lindor? Mike Clevinger? Mookie Betts? Intriguing targets abound. Whether any will land in Chavez Ravine remains unknown.

If the Dodgers whiff on their primary objective, will the offseason be a bust? Perhaps, though there’s still ample talent on hand to sweep away the NL West for the eighth-straight time and the summer trade deadline will offer new opportunities to add. There’s an argument that the club could really use another quality late-inning arm, even after a $10MM roll of the dice on Blake Treinen, but that’s about as close to a true “need” as you get with this stacked roster.

San Diego Padres [Offseason Outlook]

If you think this offseason could be drawing to a close, look no farther than the Friars for one of several rosters that could still see major change. The club has certainly picked up some new pieces — skyrocketing reliever Drew Pomeranz, solid starter Zach Davies, outfielders Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham, and second baseman Jurickson Profar — but doesn’t look to have made overwhelming strides in advance of a critical season.

There’s certainly an argument to be made that the Padres can roll with their existing talent. There’s upside in quite a few places of the roster and more coming through the pipeline. But making a real run at the Dodgers-dominated NL West is not going to be easy, if it’s plausible at all. And the NL Wild Card figures to be tightly contested. Even breaking a nine-year run of losing records isn’t a sure thing.

With the threat of organizational change looming, the Padres should continue pushing for a blockbuster, win-now addition. And they probably ought to increase their pain tolerance for striking a deal. There’s still potential to improve in the outfield, especially in center, and at the top of the rotation. The Friars would like to upgrade behind the dish but will probably find that difficult to pull off. Finding a taker for Wil Myers is another notable possibility, with extension talks to follow during Spring Training.

San Francisco Giants [Offseason Outlook]

The Giants are in an awkward position, carrying a combination of underperforming, expensive veterans and cheaply acquired, still-not-established (but not necessarily youthful) players. President of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has made a few upside-oriented adds this winter but has yet to make any major moves.

Far more than plugging holes, Zaidi is looking for opportunities to build the organization’s talent base. But with the existing collection of established players and the team’s win-always market situation, there’s also some impetus to turn out a competitive product.

More than anything, the Giants could stand to improve at the back of the bullpen and in the outfield. Zaidi has gleefully churned through untold numbers of players at these precise areas since taking the helm. He has made a few finds but there’s plenty of work left to be done. Fortunately, there are some experienced relievers and higher-ceiling corner outfielders still floating around the open market, with trade opportunities perhaps also still alive, so the Giants could yet make more acquisitions.

Shogo Akiyama Gives The Reds Options

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What’s next for the Reds after reportedly agreeing to terms with outfielder Shogo Akiyama? That’s open to interpretation … and perhaps not part of a fully defined plan for the Cincinnati front office.

There’s no question that Akiyama will be tasked with significant playing time. He’s viewed by his new org as a top-of-the-order hitter who can line up at any outfield position, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets. That suggests that Akiyama will see at least near-regular playing time … but also that he may not be tasked solely with playing in center.

These days, more than ever, it’s not strictly necessary to keep players in specific spots all year long. So … no big deal, Akiyama is now a part of the mix. But just how many ingredients can you have on one recipe card? The Reds already had loads of potential outfielders on hand.

Let’s start with the left-handed-hitting side. Former first-round draft pick Jesse Winker is the major carryover asset. He has obliterated right-handed pitching in the majors (.307/.396/.511) to about the same extent he has struggled against same-handed hurlers (.176/.295/.248). Utilityman Josh VanMeter spent time in the corners last year. Rule 5 pick Mark Payton had seemed slated to compete against holdover Scott Schebler and recent acquisitions Travis Jankowski and Nick Martini for roles. Now, with Akiyama joining Winker, it’s possible that none of those four players will be on the Opening Day roster.

That only begins to describe the crowd on hand. The outfield mix also features a bunch of righty bats. Highly touted youngster Nick Senzel — much more on him below — joins breakout performer Aristides Aquino as the major right-handed-hitting pieces of the picture. Phillip Ervin, Jose Siri, and even toolsy reliever Michael Lorenzen are also factors on the 40-man.

If nothing else, the Reds will surely end up bumping multiple outfielders from the 40-man roster. Ervin, Jankowski, and Schebler are all out of options. Payton must be kept on the active roster or sent back to the A’s. Siri appears to be at risk on the heels of an uninspiring 2019 season in the upper minors.

But the really interesting question isn’t how the Reds will resolve the margins of the 40-man. No doubt some of those calls will be made over the next two months, if and when the team makes other additions that create a crunch. Some of those players could hold appeal elsewhere, creating the possibility of trades and/or waiver claims.

What’s more intriguing is whether the Reds take a bolder path. It’s certainly possible the club will roll out an outfield foursome featuring Senzel and Aquino, from the right side, and Akiyama and Winker, from the left. But … just why did the organization gather up all of those platoon-able options of late?

Senzel had been the presumptive center fielder after being pushed out of consideration at his native second base position by the surprise signing of Mike Moustakas. With Moose joining stalwart corner pieces Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez in the infield, there’s really nowhere else for Senzel to go. Senzel has played on the left side of the infield, but never much at shortstop, where Freddy Galvis is presently the lone real option. (VanMeter has limited experience there in the minors.)

In theory, Senzel could play a major role in a shifting capacity. He’d play all over the outfield and spell the primary infielders. But that’s arguably not the best way to bring along a 24-year-old player who was not long ago a top-ten overall MLB prospect and presumptive franchise savior. That’s especially true given that he’ll be coming back from a less-than-excellent debut season that ended with shoulder surgery. Senzel still has loads of talent … and loads of trade value.

When you look at the roster, you’re left thinking … man, it’d all look so good if only Senzel could play shortstop. There’s nothing wrong with Galvis, but he has been a regular for a lot of non-competitive teams and seems misplaced as an everyday guy on a club with big aspirations. The Reds have dabbled with Senzel at short in the past, but he spent all of 2019 getting comfy in center. It feels unlikely he’ll be tasked with a big move to short on the heels of a winter spent rehabbing.

It’s not hard to connect the dots here. Adding Akiyama on the heels of the Moustakas signing hardly pushes Senzel out of the picture. But the combination of moves makes it easy to imagine the roster functioning without him. And Senzel would be just the kind of asset that would hold appeal to the teams that might consider giving up high-quality players at shortstop.

Who might that be? It’s far from clear that we’ll see a blockbuster at the shortstop position, but suffice to say there’s ample intrigue if you think creatively. We’ve seen the Reds tied to the Indians’ Francisco Lindor. Those teams have hammered out one recent major swap. It’s worth noting that the Dodgers are also in on Lindor, and that the Cincinnati club has sorted out major three-way arrangements with both of those organizations. Corey Seager would no doubt hold appeal as well. Other intriguing names that have arisen (largely speculatively) in rumors include Carlos Correa of the Astros and Trevor Story of the Rockies. The Athletics would have to listen on pending free agent Marcus Semien. Perhaps a player such as Dansby Swanson of the Braves could be acquired as part of some convoluted multi-team accord, though he wouldn’t necessarily be viewed as an impact addition.

The Reds wouldn’t be limited to shortstops, either. The club has pursued high-end catchers of late and could certainly benefit from an elite reliever or perhaps even a major corner outfield bat (with all the above discussion of the volume of outfielders applying with even greater force). Certainly, all of these areas remain ripe for improvement even if the Reds aren’t interested in dangling Senzel. There could yet be value to be had on the open market in the corner outfield, and the trade carousel may only just have begun to spin.

The point here isn’t to suggest that any particular scenario is likely to come to fruition. It’s that the Reds now have loads of avenues for finishing off their roster, depending upon what opportunities arise. For a club that has made no secret of its intention to win, and that has not shied from bold action of late, it’s an intriguing place to be.

As things stand, the Reds are improved. But Moustakas, Akiyama, and Wade Miley don’t collectively transform this roster (at least on paper) from a 75-win team into a surefire division winner. The moves to this point of the winter have put the organization in a place where it’ll be expected to contend even without further acquisitions … and where one well-conceived, major strike could make the roster stand out in the tightly bunched NL Central.

Taking Stock Of The Starting Pitching Market

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Entering the offseason, the market for rotation upgrades was robust — arguably one of the strongest groups of free-agent starters we’d seen. Two bona fide aces — Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg — headlined a group that also featured the NL Cy Young runner-up (Hyun-Jin Ryu), one of baseball’s hardest-throwing starters (Zack Wheeler), a 30-year-old four-time All Star and three-time World Series winner (Madison Bumgarner) as well as a host of quality veteran innings eaters and midrotation options.

The result has been 14 multi-year deals for starting pitchers and nearly $1.13 billion spent on hopeful rotation upgrades. Granted, Cole himself accounts for nearly 29 percent of that sum. Combining him and Strasburg accounts for 50.4 percent of the total issued to starters on MLB deals this winter. Their presence skews those total figures a bit, but it’s nevertheless been a healthier free-agent market than we’ve seen over the past couple of years.

The accelerated pace of the market and the unexpected aggression of some teams not expected to be prime players for free agents — the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks, in particular — have left teams still seeking rotation upgrades with a dearth of options to pursue in free agency. So with all the high-end options gone, what’s left on the market?

Steady Innings

Ivan Nova has averaged 30 starts per season dating back to 2016. He had a strong finish after a brutal start to the season with the White Sox in 2019. He’s probably going to post an ERA north of 4.00 with well below-average strikeout totals, but Nova is the best bet for serviceable bulk innings remaining in free agency. Other options in this mold include Jhoulys Chacin, Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas. They’ve all been roughly 30-start-per-season arms since 2017, although both Chacin and Cashner lost starting jobs and were put into the bullpen in 2019. There’s not much excitement among this bunch, but if you’re looking for 150+ innings that won’t kill you, this isn’t a bad place to start.

Injury Bounceback Candidates

Alex Wood will turn 29 in January and, in 2017-18, posted a combined 304 innings of 3.20 ERA ball (3.43 FIP) with 8.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate better than 50 percent. The lefty’s delivery has led to durability issues throughout his career, but when healthy he’s at least a midrotation arm, if not more.

Jimmy Nelson, long a top prospect with the Brewers, looked like an emerging ace in 2017 when he pitched 175 1/3 innings with a 3.49 ERA, an even more impressive 3.05 FIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 50.3 percent grounder rate. Shoulder issues wiped out most of his 2018-19 seasons, but Nelson won’t turn 31 until next June.

Let’s not forget Taijuan Walker, who’ll pitch all of next year at 27. Once one of baseball’s truly elite pitching prospects, he’s barely pitched since 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. Walker tallied 157 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate with the D-backs in ’17. He’s had no shortage of injury troubles in his career, but Walker offers as much upside as any still-unsigned player on the market.

Meanwhile, Danny Salazar has pitched in only one game (four innings) in the past two seasons but will pitch next year at 30 and has averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings in his MLB career. Tyson Ross has completed just one healthy season in his past four but was an All-Star caliber pitcher back in 2014-15. Aaron Sanchez could technically slot into this bucket as well, but it’s still not fully clear when in 2020 he’ll be ready to pitch after undergoing shoulder surgery late in the season.

Veterans with a Bit of Upside

As improbable as it’d have sounded 12 months ago, Homer Bailey is probably among the more intriguing low-cost arms on the market. The 33-year-old never lived up to his $105MM contract in Cincinnati, but in 2019 he posted slightly below-average strikeout rates, better-than-average walk rates and solid ground-ball tendencies. Bailey’s 10.8 percent swinging-strike rate in 2019 was the second-best of his career.

Drew Smyly quietly turned in a solid showing with the Phillies down the stretch, and posted a huge 12.2 percent swinging-strike rate after signing in Philadelphia. His teammate, Jerad Eickhoff, is “only” 29 but hasn’t had a strong showing since the 2016 campaign.

Veteran Reclamation Projects

Several pitchers on the market carry name value but minimal results in recent years. Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey, Marco Estrada, Wei-Yin Chen, Clayton Richard, Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill are all free agents, but no one from that group has been particularly healthy or effective over the past few seasons (although Buchholz’s injury-shortened 2018 season in Arizona was undeniably impressive). Shelby Miller is younger than anyone in that group, but his struggles over the past several seasons are well-documented at this point.

And on the Trade Market?

Everyone knows that Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd is available for the right asking price, but the Tigers have a lofty asking price on his final three seasons of club control. The Diamondbacks could make Robbie Ray, a free agent next offseason, available now that the free-agent market is largely devoid of options.

Less clear is whether the likes of Jon Gray or Chris Archer are available. Both possess the type of high-end stuff that will appeal to other clubs, but the Rockies and especially the Pirates could be selling low if they made a move this winter. Colorado also hopes to contend in 2020, though that seems rather unlikely with the Dodgers and D-backs ahead of them in the NL West and so many strong clubs vying for two Wild Card spots.

The Marlins have a bevy of young pitchers, and Caleb Smith’s name has persistently been kicked about the trade circuit over the past several months. Miami trading him is hardly a surefire thing, but one can imagine that for the right combination of prospects and controllable big leaguers, the Marlins would consider it.

Could some veterans be on the move? The Red Sox have been trying to find a way to move a portion of the remaining $96MM on David Price’s contract. The Cubs, also operating under an ownership change of course that has placed substantial payroll constraints on the front office, could mull a trade involving Jose Quintana as a means of opening some payroll space.

Mike Clevinger’s recent emergence on the rumor mill immediately made him one of the most popular targets among fans, but it’d be a rather significant surprise if the Indians dealt him away — recent trade of Corey Kluber notwithstanding.

Who’s Still Looking?

The Angels and Twins, two of the teams viewed as most in need of pitching help heading into the winter, haven’t yet made an impact move. The Minnesota org brought back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda but still hasn’t improved its rotation over 2019. The Angels have acquired Dylan Bundy and signed Julio Teheran, but the big-name starter for which fans pined never materialized. Likewise, the Padres never found the top-of-the-rotation arm they’ve been seeking for awhile now.

The Dodgers were connected to the big fish, as they are every offseason, but once again opted against a substantial commitment to an open-market player. The Brewers have taken flak for their lack of starting pitching but continue to prioritize lower-scale value plays and depth over higher-priced options. That could put them in play for some of the upside candidates mentioned above, but it’s worth noting that they moved on from Jimmy Nelson already. The Astros have Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and a returning Lance McCullers Jr. (Tommy Johns surgery), but they have limited certainty beyond that group. The defending-champion Nationals are among the clubs looking for fifth-starter candidates.

Reds Reach Agreement With Shogo Akiyama

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1:39pm: The Reds and Akiyama are in agreement on a three-year contract, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.

1:03pm: The Reds are “working hard” to finalize an agreement with free-agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that bidding for the longtime Seibu Lions star now exceeds three years and $20MM. Akiyama is represented by Excel Sports Management’s Casey Close.

A report from Nikkan Sports in Japan on Monday indicated that the two sides were in agreement on a deal, but both Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer and Mark Sheldon of MLB.com report that an agreement is not yet in place (Twitter links). Nikkan Sports reported that Akiyama had agreed to a three-year deal worth more than $15MM in total, but Sheldon, like Heyman, hears that bidding on the center fielder has exceeds that $15MM barometer by a “decent margin.”

Akiyama has topped 20 homers in each of the past three seasons and swiped 15-plus bags in each of the past five years. In all, since the 2015 season, he’s a .320/.398/.497 hitter. He’ll turn 32 next April, but his age doesn’t look to have been much of a hindrance in his market. He’s drawn interest from the Cubs, Diamondbacks and Padres, among others, and the fact that this winter’s free-agent market is largely devoid of quality center field options only aids his cause.

If Akiyama and the Reds do indeed finalize an agreement, he’ll be in line for regular reps and possibly push young Nick Senzel into a multi-position role, where he could log time in the infield and across the outfield. The Reds could also simply deploy Akiyama in a corner with Senzel in center, although their outfield mix also features Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, Scott Schebler, Phil Ervin and offseason pickups Travis Jankowski and Nick Martini.

Of that bunch, Winker and Aquino currently top the depth chart and are the favorites for regular corner work in 2020, but the entire unit carries some degree of uncertainty. Akiyama would further add to that uncertainty, but he’d also bring a good bit of upside that some of the incumbent options can’t match.

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