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Camp Battles: Twins’ Fifth Starter

By Steve Adams | February 24, 2020 at 2:23pm CDT

Entering the offseason, the Twins’ rotation consisted of Jose Berrios and, uh … [checks notes] — that’s about it. Minnesota had quite a bit of work to do to fill out the starting staff and immediately received a boost when Jake Odorizzi accepted a $17.8MM qualifying offer. The Twins brought back another piece of their ’19 rotation when they agreed to a two-year, $20MM deal with Michael Pineda, although he’ll miss the first six weeks while serving the remainder of a reduced 60-game PED suspension. The rest of their moves took a bit longer, but by the time the Twins reported to camp in Fort Myers, Fla., they had lockers set up for Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.

Minnesota didn’t get the “impact” pitching they proclaimed to be a priority, instead pivoting to give Josh Donaldson the second-largest deal in franchise history (four years, $92MM) after coming up short in their pursuits of Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and (reportedly to a lesser extent) Madison Bumgarner. But they’ll break camp with a rotation consisting of Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda and Bailey, with both Pineda and Hill (coming back from elbow surgery) looming as midseason additions.

As for the fifth spot early in the season? The Twins have a handful of options who’ll be considered over the course of the next month, including a series of optionable 40-man roster members and at least one low-risk non-roster invitee…

Randy Dobnak, RHP: It’s hard not to consider Dobnak the front-runner, considering the Twins entrusted him with a postseason start last year after Pineda was suspended. That outing, of course, didn’t go well, but Dobnak’s 2019 season was nonetheless an eye-opener. It took the 25-year-old two years and one week to go from undrafted indie league hurler to the Majors. His rapid ascent in 2019 was in no small part due to the combined 2.07 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9 and near-60 percent ground-ball rate he turned in over 135 minor league innings (three levels). Upon reaching the big leagues, Dobnak turned in a 1.59 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 28 1/3 innings. He won’t simply be handed the job, but Dobnak went from an unranked prospect within the Twins’ system to a potential rotation favorite in the span of one year.
Devin Smeltzer, LHP: Not to be overshadowed, Smeltzer had an impressive 2019 campaign of his own. Acquired in the trade that sent Brian Dozier to Los Angeles, the 24-year-old turned in a 2.76 ERA with a pristine 104-to-22 K/BB ratio in 104 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His big league work wasn’t quite as sharp, but in 49 innings, Smeltzer gave the Twins a 3.86 ERA with averages of 7.0 strikeouts, 2.2 walks and 1.47 homers per nine innings pitched. Like Dobnak, he elevated his status within the organization about as much as a prospect can in a year’s time. For what it’s worth, the Twins’ outfield defense is vastly superior to its infield defense, and Smeltzer is a fly-ball pitcher.
Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Thorpe, 24, was a notable signing out of Australia back on the 2012-13 international market and twice landed on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 prospects list (2014-15). Tommy John surgery in 2015 wound up costing him all of the 2015-16 seasons, though, which significantly delayed his path to the big leagues. Thorpe has shown huge strikeout ability in the minors, and while last year’s 4.58 ERA in Triple-A doesn’t look like much, it was at least a respectable showing in a league that was dominated by hitters. Thorpe averaged better than 11 punchouts per nine frames in Triple-A and struck out 31 hitters in 27 2/3 MLB frames in his debut effort. His bottom-line results in the Majors weren’t great (6.18 ERA), but he’s now fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and misses more bats than any of his competition.
Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (non-roster): The primary veteran NRI in Twins camp, Chacin stumbled through the worst season of his career in 2019, recording a 6.01 ERA and serving up an average of 2.2 homers per nine innings pitched. The long ball has never been an Achilles heel for Chacin, though, and he’s only a year removed from a strong showing in Milwaukee (3.50 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 in 192 2/3 innings). In fact, from 2013-18, Chacin notched a 3.96 ERA/4.02 FIP in 804 1/3 innings. It’ll surprise some to learn that Chacin only just turned 32 years old in January — he debuted at 21 back in 2009 — so a rebound is hardly out of the question. It seems likely that Chacin would need to handily outperform the rest of the field, given that he’s not on the 40-man roster, but he’s in the mix even if he’s a long shot.

Whoever wins the competition appears likely to be a stopgap until Pineda returns, but it’s possible that any combination of the candidates will also see action in the bullpen as well. This group will also be the Twins’ first line of defense against potential injuries. However it shakes out, Minnesota seems likely to once again explore the market for higher-end pitching upgrades on the summer trade market. The above-listed candidates, Pineda and Hill give the Twins plenty of depth in the rotation, but expect them to pursue potential playoff-rotation-caliber arms in the weeks leading up to the deadline as well.

Andrew Cashner Being Marketed As Reliever

By Steve Adams | February 24, 2020 at 12:16pm CDT

The 19 relief appearances that Andrew Cashner made with the Red Sox last year were his first bullpen outings since 2013, but it seems as though more could be in the offing. Cashner has been positioned as a bullpen option in recent conversations with teams, MLBTR has learned.

Shifting Cashner to the ’pen isn’t exactly a new notion. It’s been a widely proposed idea for years, and we even delved into it here last May when Cashner was still enjoying some success in the Baltimore rotation. That he’s now being “pitched” (awful pun intended — sorry) to clubs as a reliever is notable, though. The Athletic’s Dan Connolly noted last summer (subscription required) that Cashner’s preference has generally been to pitch out of the rotation, but it seems he’s now more on board with a ’pen setting — perhaps after enjoying some success in that capacity with Boston last year.

The Red Sox acquired Cashner to plug a hole in their rotation, but he did little to aid the team’s starting staff; over the life of six starts with Boston, Cashner pitched 30 1/3 innings and surrendered 27 earned runs. That pushed him to the bullpen, where he closed out the season with a 3.86 ERA, a 21-to-12 K/BB ratio and one home run allowed in 23 2/3 innings. Cashner averaged 93.6 mph on his fastball as a starter but 95.4 mph as a reliever. His swinging-strike rate saw a similar boost (8.8 percent to 13.1 percent). Taking a broader look, the gap between Cashner’s effectiveness the first and second time through the batting order (.297 wOBA vs. .327) was a fair bit more stark than that of the league-average AL pitcher (.317 vs. .335).

There are clearly some control issues that need to be sorted out, and Cashner’s recent work as a starter has been anything but encouraging. However, Cashner has enough indicators of legitimate interest as a reliever that the shift to the ’pen seems plenty sensible. That’s not to say that teams should be lining up with blank checks, but as a low-cost Spring Training flier for a club seeking bullpen depth, Cashner is one of the more interesting options available in a largely picked-over free agent market.

Rangers’ Brock Burke To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

By Steve Adams | February 24, 2020 at 11:08am CDT

The Rangers will be without one of their top pitching prospects for all of the 2020 season, as the organization announced Monday that lefty Brock Burke will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair fraying and a partial tear in the labrum of his left shoulder this week. He’s not expected to pitch again until 2021.

Burke wasn’t projected to crack the Opening Day roster, but he would’ve functioned as a key depth piece for the club’s reworked rotation. He’s already on the 40-man roster and made his MLB debut last August — shortly after his 23rd birthday. Burke struggled in six big league starts (22 runs in 26 2/3 innings), but he posted a 3.90 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a minuscule 0.4 HR/9 across three minor league levels last year. The Rangers initially acquired him from the Rays in last offseason’s three-team swap that sent Jurickson Profar to Oakland.

Texas’ offseason acquisitions of Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles pushed Burke and fellow left-hander Kolby Allard out of the rotation mix early in the season, but both pitchers were one big league injury away from being summoned from Triple-A Nashville to the newly constructed Globe Life Field in Arlington. Earlier this winter, Baseball America ranked Burke 21st among Rangers prospects — the same slot he occupied on FanGraphs’ most recent ranking of the Texas minor league system. He’s generally regarded as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter who gets by with average across-the-board stuff rather than a particular plus offering.

Burke will likely be placed on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot at some point this spring, thus positioning him to accrue a full year of Major League service time while he rehabs from Friday’s upcoming procedure. That’s surely not the way that the Rangers would’ve preferred to open a 40-man spot, but the club does have several non-roster invitees in camp who stand a realistic chance of making the team. Matt Duffy, Greg Bird, Sam Travis, Cody Allen, Blake Swihart, Edinson Volquez, Juan Nicasio and Derek Law are among the notable non-roster players in big league camp with Texas in 2020.

Blue Jays To Sign Marc Rzepczynski

By Steve Adams | February 24, 2020 at 9:44am CDT

The Blue Jays have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran left-hander Marc Rzepczynski, manager Charlie Montoyo revealed when meeting with reporters Monday morning (Twitter link via Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling). Rzepczynski still needs to complete his physical, but once he does, the JBA Sports client will head to Major League camp as a non-roster invitee.

Rzepczynski, 34, didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2019 — the first time since 2008 that he didn’t pitch at least 10 innings in a big league season. Instead, the southpaw spent the year with the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate, where he pitched to a 5.04 ERA with 36 strikeouts against 28 walks in 44 innings of relief. Suffice it to say, the 2019 campaign wasn’t one of the southpaw’s best.

That said, Rzepczynski has a generally solid track record at the big league level. He’s compiled a 3.89 ERA and near-identical 3.88 FIP in 434 2/3 MLB frames — including a quality run from 2011-17 that saw him log a 3.61 earned run average (3.59 FIP) in 299 1/3 innings. It’s been two years since his last effective campaign at the MLB level, but there’s little harm in taking a speculative spring look to see a rebound appears possible.

Major League Baseball’s recent rule changes — the three-batter minimum for pitches, specifically — won’t do any favors for the man perhaps more commonly known as “Scrabble.” Rzepczynski has generally been used in a specialized left-on-left role throughout his career. Lefty hitters have mustered only a dismal .227/.296/.305 slash against him in 857 trips to the plate, but righties have had far less difficulty, as evidenced by a .280/.385/.437 output in 1035 plate appearances.

Assessing The Brewers’ Rotation

By Steve Adams | February 24, 2020 at 7:56am CDT

As seems to be the case every spring, there’s a fair bit of uncertainty surrounding the Brewers’ rotation. Milwaukee eschewed a splashy trade or a potentially cumbersome long-term pact in free agencu, instead opting for lower-cost deals with righty Josh Lindblom (three years, $9.125MM) and Brett Anderson (one year, $5MM) As things currently stand, that duo will likely join holdovers Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser in comprising four of the top five spots.

As for the fifth spot in the rotation, Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters yesterday that the competition will likely boil down to left-hander Eric Lauer and right-hander Freddy Peralta (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). Righty Corbin Burnes isn’t entirely out of the race, but Counsell did indicate that veteran right-hander Shelby Miller won’t be considered just yet. While Miller was invited to MLB camp and will presumably get some innings there, he’s working to reestablish himself after several lost seasons.

The competition between Lauer and Peralta will be a key one for Brewers fans to follow this spring. The former, a 24-year-old lefty picked up alongside Luis Urias in the trade that sent Zach Davies and Trent Grisham to San Diego, already has nearly two full seasons of MLB experience under his belt despite his relative youth. Lauer started 29 games for the Padres last season, pitching to a 4.45 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 39.9 percent ground-ball rate in 149 2/3 innings.

Lauer pitched into the seventh and eighth inning on a few occasions but ultimately averaged about five frames per start — a concept that should be plenty familiar to Brewers fans at this point. Milwaukee regularly limited the aforementioned Davies and right-hander Chase Anderson to two trips through the opponents’ batting order, leveraging a deep bullpen thereafter. If he wins the fifth spot in the rotation, Lauer could be deployed in similar fashion.

Peralta, meanwhile, is still just 23 year of age. Like Lauer, he’s racked up a fair bit of big league experience in his early 20s, pitching to a combined 4.79 ERA in 163 1/3 Major League innings to this point. Peralta spent most of the 2019 season in a multi-inning relief role — showing better in that capacity than he did as a starting pitcher. But Peralta has added a new pitch to his repertoire this winter, as Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recently highlighted, which could change his fortunes. A chat with former big league righty and current Brewers special assistant Carlos Villanueva led to Peralta trying out a slider in the Dominican Winter League, and he responded with a 34-to-3 K/BB ratio in 20 innings with los Toros del Este.

The 25-year-old Burnes could be something of a wild card as camp progresses. A consensus top 100 prospect heading into 2018, Burnes debuted in dominant fashion with the ’18 club when he tossed 38 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with a 35-to-11 K/BB ratio. He made 30 total relief appearances, allowing just 27 hits (four homers); of his 11 walks, two were of the intentional variety. Burnes posted elite spin rates on his curve and heater while flashing high-end velocity. He looked like a potential cornerstone for the pitching staff.

The 2019 season was an unmitigated disaster for Burnes, however. The hitter-friendly nature of the 2019 ball likely didn’t help matters, nor did a sky-high .414 average on balls in play. But Burnes’ poor showing can’t be solely blamed on a juiced ball or poor luck; he was absolutely torched for 48 runs in 49 innings of work — yielding a stunning 17 home runs in that time. The right-hander showed a clear knack for missing bats (12.9 K/9, 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate) but struggled with location both in and out of the zone far. Burnes’ walk rate increased, and his inability to command the ball within the zone contributed to that barrage of long balls.

Regardless of how it shakes out, the Milwaukee rotation will enter the season facing its share of scrutiny. That’s been the case in both of the past two seasons, however, and the team reached the postseason in both instances. A year ago. The 2019 season saw Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Woodruff, Davies, Houser and Gio Gonzalez make the majority of its starts. A year prior, the Brewers entered the season with Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Junior Guerra, Brent Suter and Wade Miley (then on a minor league reclamation deal) heading up its rotation mix.

There may not be a surefire ace among Milwaukee’s starting staff, but both Woodruff and Houser posted sub-4.00 ERAs with strong peripheral marks in more than 100 innings in 2019. Lindblom is an undeniably interesting flier coming off a dominant run in the Korea Baseball Organization, thanks in part to a new splitter. Brett Anderson has a 4.07 ERA and a 55 percent ground-ball rate over the past two seasons (256 1/3 innings). It’s not the most outwardly impressive group of arms, but the Brewers have begun to make a habit of compiling serviceable staffs that are light on name value. They’ll be looking for more of the same in 2020.

Lonnie Chisenhall Retires

By Mark Polishuk | February 23, 2020 at 11:03pm CDT

Lonnie Chisenhall is retiring after eight MLB seasons. As reported by J.J. Smith of the Carteret County News-Times, the former Indians third baseman/outfielder discussed his decision while attending a jersey dedication ceremony in his honor at his former middle school in Newport, North Carolina.

“I’ve only played 29 games in the past two years. So between that, and I have three kids at home, they are all in school, traveling around the country wasn’t practical anymore. It was a pretty easy decision,” Chisenhall said during a question-and-answer portion of the assembly with Newport Middle School students.

The 31-year-old hangs up his cleats after 688 Major League games, all with Cleveland from 2011-18. Chisenhall was a highly-touted young player, drafted 29th overall by the Indians in 2008 and given high placements (31st in 2010, 25th in 2011) on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect lists. Unfortunately, injuries were a constant presence in Chisenhall’s career and perhaps prevented him from fully living up to that top-prospect status, though he still managed to be a productive player over his eight seasons.

Chisenhall hit .268/.320/.427 with 64 home runs over 2360 career plate appearances, good for a 102 OPS+ and wRC+. Most of that success came against right-handed pitching for the lefty-swinging Chisenhall, though he produced good numbers against both lefties and righties over his final two seasons, which saw him post an .872 OPS over 365 PA while battling numerous injuries.

The most notable of those injuries was a series of nagging calf problems that, ultimately, brought an end to Chisenhall’s career. As he noted while talking to Newport’s students, he was limited to only 29 MLB games in 2018 and then didn’t appear at all in the big leagues last season, playing just seven games with the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate after signing a one-year, $2.75MM deal with Pittsburgh last offseason.

MLB Trade Rumors wishes Chisenhall congratulations on a fine career, and wishes him well in his post-playing endeavors.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | February 23, 2020 at 10:18pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s baseball live chat.

NL West Notes: Yolmer, Ray, MadBum, Saunders, Cordero

By Mark Polishuk | February 23, 2020 at 7:39pm CDT

Before signing a minor league deal with the Giants, Yolmer Sanchez turned down some MLB contract offers from other teams, the second baseman told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. His decision was partly for financial reasons — the other offers promised him guaranteed money but less than the $2.5MM Sanchez will make if he cracks the Giants’ roster — and partly for opportunity-based reasons, as other clubs wanted to use Sanchez in a utility role. As Schulman writes, Sanchez preferred to “bet on himself…for a chance to be an everyday second baseman” in San Francisco.

It remains to be seen if Sanchez can become a regular amidst the Giants’ youth movement, or against a veteran like second base candidate Wilmer Flores, who did sign a guaranteed Major League deal with the team. Aside from Flores, the Giants also have youngster Mauricio Dubon and utilityman Donovan Solano in the mix at the keystone, not to mention Kean Wong, Zach Green, and longtime Giants staple Pablo Sandoval in camp battling for infield jobs.

Padres To Sign Brian Dozier To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | February 23, 2020 at 6:28pm CDT

6:28PM: Dozier will earn $2.2MM if he makes San Diego’s roster, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), plus some extra money is available to Dozier via contract incentives.

10:38AM: The Padres have agreed to terms with second baseman Brian Dozier and invited him to MLB spring training, report AJ Cassavell of MLB.com (via Twitter) and Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’ll be a minor-league deal, Murray adds (via Twitter). Dozier is a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Dozier was once an elite performer for the Twins but has tailed off a bit in recent years. Over the last two seasons, he compiled a .225/.320/.408 line (94 wRC+) with 41 home runs in 1114 plate appearances with Minnesota, the Dodgers and the Nationals. That pales in comparison to the stellar .269/.349/.522 (129 wRC+) mark with 72 homers he posted over the two seasons prior.

At age 32, Dozier’s days as a masher are probably behind him. Even recently, though, he’s remained a generally productive player. Not only has he gotten regular playing time on contending clubs, he’s remained a solid hitter. Last season in Washington, Dozier hit .238/.340/.430 (99 wRC+). Defensive metrics are mixed on his work on second base. UZR thinks he’s a perfectly fine defender, while DRS and Statcast are more bearish.

As the slash line indicates, Dozier remains capable of hitting for power and drawing walks, making him a solid veteran bat near the bottom of a team’s order. He also makes a fair amount of contact, although his fly ball approach has perennially driven low batting averages on balls in play. The Statcast metrics also suggest Dozier’s something of a league average bat, as his .331 xwOBA last season ranked in the 49th percentile.

In many years, that would’ve been enough for Dozier to find a guaranteed MLB job, but the free agent market at second base was loaded with similar veterans. It’s still a bit surprising to see he’ll have to earn his way onto a 40-man roster in spring training, although there’s certainly room for him to do so with the Padres.

Jurickson Profar, Greg Garcia and Breyvic Valera are San Diego’s top three current options at second base. Padres’ GM A.J. Preller is surely fond of Profar, having signed him as an international free agent with the Rangers and acquired him from the A’s this offseason. Dozier arguably outplayed Profar last season, though, as the latter has never quite made good on his vaunted prospect status. Meanwhile, non-roster invitees Esteban Quiroz and Gordon Beckham figure to have a tougher shot at making the club.

There’s nothing to lose, meanwhile, from San Diego’s perspective. They’ll get a look at a more productive player than most minor-league signees who plays a position of uncertainty. Alternatively, they could consider Dozier as a right-handed bench bat, a profile which the 26-man active roster makes more capable of stashing on the roster. Dozier has a career .270/.354/.500 slash against left-handed pitching and has continued to hit southpaws well in recent seasons.

Diamondbacks Sign Mark Leiter Jr. To Minors Contract

By Mark Polishuk | February 23, 2020 at 5:51pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have signed right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. to a minor league deal. Leiter announced the move last week on his Instagram page, with the caption “new elbow, new team.”

Leiter missed all of the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March. Given the normal 12-15 month timeline for TJ recovery, Leiter might not yet be ready to pitch even if the D’Backs did want to put him on their Opening Day roster, though he could also continue to recover and ramp up in the minors until he is ready for a potential big league return. Assuming good health, Leiter provides the Diamondbacks with a versatile depth arm who has worked as both a starter and reliever.

Most recently a member of the Blue Jays roster, Leiter (who turns 29 next month) became a free agent after the season. The righty has a 5.53 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.47 K/BB rate, and 48.2% grounder rate over 114 career MLB innings, all with the Phillies and Blue Jays in 2017-18. While some ERA indicators (4.37 xFIP, 4.23 SIERA) hint that Leiter’s real-world ERA is unduly inflated, Leiter hasn’t helped himself by allowing 25 home runs over his 114 frames of work, averaging out to an untenable 1.97 HR/9.

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