MLBTR Poll: Projecting The 2021 Rays
The Rays are one of the more fascinating teams to project almost every year. Next season should be no exception. Tampa Bay went 40-20 in last year’s shortened season, entering the postseason as the American League’s top seed. The Rays made good on that status, knocking off the Blue Jays, Yankees and Astros in successive series to claim their first pennant in twelve years. A six-game defeat at the hands of the Dodgers in the Fall Classic kept the franchise from their first World Series title, but there’s no doubt the 2020 season was a success.
Whether they followed that up with a quality offseason is debatable. Tampa Bay declined a club option on Charlie Morton and traded away Blake Snell, subtracting two of their top three pitchers. Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough are back, likely aided by offseason additions Chris Archer, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Collin McHugh and Luis Patiño. The bullpen was an area of strength for the Rays in 2020. That figures to again be the case, with Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks and Diego Castillo leading a talented group that throws wildly varying profiles and arm angles at opposing lineups.
There’s a lot more continuity on the position player side. The Rays bring back nine of the ten players who took at least 100 plate appearances last year (Hunter Renfroe being the player who departed). Yet while the offense was very good during the regular season in 2020, the bats largely went cold in the playoffs (with postseason star Randy Arozarena an obvious exception). Should we expect a return to form from those regulars who propped up a lineup that was the league’s eighth-best (by wRC+) in the regular season? There’s also the potential for baseball’s top prospect, Wander Franco, to make an impact this year, although that unsurprisingly won’t be at the start of the season.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system forecasts a season in the 87-win range; their median outcome has Tampa Bay finishing second in the AL East (behind the Yankees) but securing a Wild Card spot. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts aren’t as optimistic, pegging the Rays at 84 wins and behind the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox in the division. Splitting the difference, we’ll set the over/under at 85.5 wins. Should we expect another postseason run for the Rays in 2021?
(poll links for app users)
Will The Rays Win More Than 85.5 Games In 2021?
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Yes. 64% (4,355)
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No. 36% (2,411)
Total votes: 6,766
Will The Rays Make The Postseason In 2021?
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Yes. 56% (3,309)
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No. 44% (2,559)
Total votes: 5,868
Quick Hits: Rockies, Cron, A’s, Mathias, Angels
C.J. Cron appears to be the favorite to claim the Rockies’ open first base job, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post as part of a reader mailbag. Signed to a minor-league deal in February, Cron is competing with Josh Fuentes and fellow non-roster invitee Greg Bird. Installing Cron at first would allow Fuentes to see action at multiple corner positions off the bench. That might make it tough to also carry Bird as a lefty bench bat, although Saunders notes there’s a chance all three players make the season-opening active roster, particularly if Brendan Rodgers is forced to start the year on the injured list after straining his hamstring. Cron and Bird would each need to be added to the 40-man roster if they make the team, although Colorado currently has one open 40-man spot.
More from around the sport:
- Athletics left-hander A.J. Puk made his Cactus League debut today. He threw approximately 30 pitches this afternoon and plans to toss around 45 in his next outing, writes Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Manager Bob Melvin has mentioned Puk as a potential option for the season-opening rotation if Mike Fiers, suffering from hip inflammation, isn’t ready by the first week of April. It remains to be seen if Puk will have enough time to sufficiently build up strength for the start of the season himself.
- The Brewers placed Mark Mathias on the 60-day injured list yesterday to create roster space for Travis Shaw. It seems Mathias will be on the shelf for significantly longer than that two-month minimum. The utilityman suffered a posterior labrum tear, he told reporters (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). Mathias is awaiting a second opinion on the possibility of rehabbing the injury without surgery; even if he can avoid going under the knife, the 26-year-old says he’s likely looking at a three to four month layoff. Mathias made his MLB debut last season.
- Today’s news that Felix Peña likely won’t be available for Opening Day leaves the Angels’ bullpen down an important arm. After the injury, general manager Perry Minasian acknowledged the club might now go outside the organization to acquire additional relief help, Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic was among those to relay. Free agency still offers a few possibilities, with 32-year-old righty Shane Greene arguably the top arm available. Greene’s market has been rather quiet all offseason, but he continues to throw in anticipation of an opportunity, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
Phillies Health Notes: Didi, Eflin, Howard
A few Phillies health updates, courtesy of Matt Gelb of The Athletic:
- Shortstop Didi Gregorius left Tuesday’s game after taking an 89 mph fastball off the back of the head from Blue Jays right-hander Tanner Roark. Manager Joe Girardi said at the time that Gregorius was dealing with“a minor, minor headache” (via Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia), but he then told Gelb and other reporters that the Phillies will re-evaluate him on Friday. Going without Gregorius for any period of regular-season time would be a shot to the Phillies’ offense, as he batted .284/.339/.488 with 10 home runs in 237 appearances and appeared in all 60 of their games last year. That performance persuaded the Phillies to re-sign Gregorius to a two-year, $28MM guarantee in free agency.
- Right-hander Zach Eflin will not pitch this week because of a back injury that the Phillies are somewhat concerned about, Girardi said. Just as Gregorius is a key cog in Philadelphia’s offense, Eflin is an integral part of its rotation. The top complement to the one-two punch of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, Eflin is looking to build on a career year in which he logged personal-best numbers in several categories. Eflin finished 2020 with a 3.97 ERA/3.50 FIP, excellent strikeout and walk percentages (28.6 and 6.1, respectively), and a strong 47.4 percent groundball rate over 59 innings. If Eflin isn’t ready for the start of the season, it could open the door for Vince Velasquez to claim the open spot in the Phillies’ rotation, Gelb notes.
- In yet another unwelcome bit of news for Philly’s staff, righty Spencer Howard still hasn’t been cleared to throw after going down with back spasms earlier this week. The 24-year-old had been in line to compete for a spot in the club’s rotation, but that appears to be out the window for the time being. Howard, whom Baseball America ranked as the game’s 27th-best prospect in 2020, made a rocky debut last year with six starts and 24 1/3 frames of 5.92 ERA ball (with a more encouraging 4.87 SIERA). However, he did dominate the High-A and Double-A levels in 2019.
Latest On Framber Valdez
MARCH 17: Surgery has not been recommended for Valdez, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic tweets. Valdez will head back to spring training to rehab, but there’s no timeline for a return to the mound.
MARCH 6: Framber Valdez has not yet given up on pitching in 2021. He is considering avoiding surgery and rehabbing his broken ring finger with an eye on returning later this season, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Earlier reports suggested Valdez might miss the entire season after being recommended for surgery. Clearly, a final decision has yet to be made.
Despite the signing of Jake Odorizzi to a two-year deal, the Astros would, of course, welcome a healthy Valdez back into the fold. Still, that Houston felt the need to go out and finalize a deal for Odorizzi less than a week after the Valdez injury suggests they aren’t all that optimistic, writes Jake Kaplan of the Athletic. Even if Valdez returns, however, he’s likely to miss a decent chunk of time.
One of the breakout stars of the 2020 postseason, Valdez rode his signature curveball to a 1.88 ERA in four playoff appearances while striking out 29 percent of opponents. That effort built on a quieter but no less encouraging 3.57 ERA/2.85 FIP over 70 ⅔ innings during the regular season.
Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson Re-Aggravates Groin Injury
3:37pm: Pearson is doing “better,” according to manager Charlie Montoyo, but it’s “unlikely” he’ll be ready for the start of the season (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet).
10:38am: Right-hander Nate Pearson suffered a “mild re-aggravation” of his strained right groin during a bullpen session on Tuesday, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins told reporters (including Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi). Pearson will be monitored over the next few days, though considering that the young righty has missed almost all of March with the injury, it seems likely that Pearson will need to begin the season on the injured list while he heals and gets properly ramped up to pitch.
Pearson suffered a Grade 1 groin strain on March 1, during his first Grapefruit League outing. The injury wasn’t considered too serious, and Pearson’s recovery appeared to be going smoothly — for instance, he came out of another bullpen session last Saturday with no issues. However, the 24-year-old will now probably be facing a delay in the start of his first full Major League season.
One of the game’s most highly-touted young pitchers, Pearson made his MLB debut last season and posted a 6.00 ERA over 18 innings in the regular season, plus two scoreless frames during the Jays’ wild card series with the Rays. Pearson also spent a month on the IL due to elbow tightness.
Despite the difficulties of Pearson’s first season, the Blue Jays were counting on big things in 2021, hoping that Pearson would emerge as a solid No. 2 starter behind Hyun-Jin Ryu. It was something of a risky move even with Pearson healthy, and his absence (even if it ends up being a somewhat short stint on the IL) now underlines the questions surrounding Toronto’s pitching. Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling, Trent Thornton, the re-signed Robbie Ray, and new acquisition Steven Matz are all looking for bounce-back seasons, while younger arms like Anthony Kay and Thomas Hatch are still unproven at the MLB level.
If Pearson does miss time, Atkins intimated that Stripling was the favorite to step into the rotation, going from a swingman role to a starting role. As Davidi notes, this could put Kay, Hatch, Thornton, or T.J. Zeuch in line to take over Stripling’s long man job in the bullpen, which creates further juggling down the road about how to manage innings and whether younger pitchers are best deployed as relievers or kept stretched out as rotation depth.
Blue Jays Notes: Hatch, Liriano, Opt-Outs, Montoyo
Right-hander Thomas Hatch made a worrying exit from today’s Spring Training outing, as Hatch immediately signaled for the trainer after throwing a fastball to Aaron Judge. The Blue Jays’ official Twitter feed reported that Hatch left the game due to “right elbow/forearm discomfort.”
Acquired from the Cubs in a deadline trade for David Phelps in 2019, Hatch posted a 2.73 ERA over his first 26 1/3 Major League innings, though advanced metrics weren’t too keen on his performance. Hatch worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen last season, and for 2021 was being viewed by the Jays as a possible reliever or depth starter, or perhaps a bit of both in a swingman or long-relief gig. Unfortunately, those plans may now be up in the air given Hatch’s injury — while more will be known once Hatch is examined by trainers and doctors, it certainly looked like a potential long-term problem for the 26-year-old. [UPDATE: Hatch will undergo an MRI, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets.]
More from Toronto…
- A possible absence for Hatch adds another layer to an already-tricky set of forthcoming roster decisions for the Jays, as Nate Pearson is also looking at a season-opening IL stint due to a setback in his recovery from a groin strain. Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi looks at some of the Jays’ possible options in shaping their roster, and at least one 40-man move will be necessary since Francisco Liriano is looking like a solid bet to make the team. Liriano signed a minor league deal in February that will pay him $1.5MM in guaranteed salary if he makes the MLB roster, and a good Spring Training performance has the veteran in line to win a spot as left-handed depth in Toronto’s bullpen.
- Both Liriano and Joe Panik have March 25 opt-out dates in their minors contracts if they aren’t added to the big league team, while Tommy Milone‘s opt-out is on March 27 and A.J. Cole‘s opt-out isn’t until May 15. In terms of out-of-options players, Reese McGuire and Breyvic Valera can’t be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers, which could give them some advantage in making the team. “The Blue Jays would ideally love to stash a few of their minor-league contracts on the taxi squad, with the carrot of a quick call up if needed,” Davidi writes.
- The Jays announced yesterday that they had exercised their club option on Charlie Montoyo for the 2022 season, giving the manager an additional guaranteed year on his contract. In terms of a longer-term extension, Montoyo told told Mitchell and other reporters that such negotiations had yet to take. Entering his third season as Toronto’s manager, Montoyo led the young Jays to a 32-28 record and a spot in the expanded 2020 postseason last year, and now more is expected of a team that made some big offseason investments.
AL Central Notes: Witt, Polanco, Peralta, Tigers
Bobby Witt Jr. has been one of the stars of Spring Training, as the highly-touted prospect has wowed teammates and observers at the Royals‘ camp. As a result, Dayton Moore is “very much open-minded of him being on this team as we break this camp,” the Kansas City general manager told Fantasy Alarm’s Jim Bowden in an interview Tuesday. (MLB.com’s Anne Rogers has a partial transcript.)
“I’m not going to make an advanced decision now, but we’re just going to let the player tell us” with his work, Moore said. “Right now, we don’t have to pick our roster. But the fact that Bobby Witt is still in camp and [manager Mike Matheny] continues to play him, and the most important thing is we all know he’s earned the respect — a young talented player with a lot of hype around him who’s earned the respect of his teammates.”
Since being selected second overall in the 2019 draft, Witt has appeared in only 37 professional games, all with the Royals’ rookie league affiliate in 2019 (.262/.317/.354 in 180 PA). Even after impressing at the Royals’ alternate training site last summer and continuing that performance into the spring, Witt would still be making a big jump in going from rookie ball to the majors at age 20. While the Opening Day lineup might be a bit of a reach, there is certainly an increasing chance that Witt could make his MLB debut before the 2021 season is out.
More from the AL Central…
- Jorge Polanco was removed from Tuesday’s game due to left adductor tightness, but Twins manager Rocco Baldelli thinks Polanco should be removed after “maybe a few days.” Baldelli told MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park and other reporters that Polanco was initially hurt after an awkward landing on the baseball while trying to field a grounder, and the decision was made to take Polanco out two innings later when he reported some tightness while running out a ground ball. With Andrelton Simmons taking over as Minnesota’s shortstop, Polanco is expected to move from his old shortstop position and get the bulk of playing time at second base.
- Wily Peralta signed a minor league deal with the Tigers in February but hasn’t yet arrived at camp due to visa issues. Unsurprisingly, manager A.J. Hinch told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky and other reporters that the delay will cost Peralta a shot at making the Tigers’ Opening Day roster. Since being released by the Royals in July 2019, Peralta hasn’t pitched anywhere apart from an eight-game stint in the Dominican Winter League, so his attempt at reviving his career will now move to Detroit’s minor league camp when he eventually gets to the United States.
- In other AL Central news from earlier today, both the White Sox (link) and Indians (link) have interest in extending some of their top players.
Latest On Danny Santana
TODAY: Santana is being released from hospital today, as reported by multiple reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne). Santana will still have stitches for the next two weeks.
MARCH 15: Recently-signed Red Sox utility man Danny Santana is in the hospital with a foot infection, per Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal (via Twitter). He is currently being treated with antibiotics, and there’s no timetable for his return. Barring any complications, however, it’s reasonable to expect a relatively short layoff for Santana.
Boston signed Santana earlier this month with an eye on adding him to their pool of short-bench candidates capable of playing both the infield and the outfield. It’s now worth wondering if Santana will be able to get ready in time to fully compete for an opening day roster spot. He has only two plate appearances in spring training since suiting up.
Whenever Santana does return, he’ll audition to be a right-handed complement for the bench. Especially with left fielder Franchy Cordero expected to miss the beginning of the season, there will be some playing time to be had in the outfield. That will likely go to Marwin Gonzalez unless Santana makes a very speedy recovery. Boston also has the option of moving Enrique Hernandez to left and giving some additional playing time to Christian Arroyo or another bench bat.
Indians Interested In Extending Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez‘s contract keeps him under the Indians’ control through the 2023 season, but Cleveland “would love to” work out another extension with the star third baseman, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan. To date, Ramirez “has resisted” the team’s overtures.
It isn’t exactly unusual that a club would have interest in keeping its star player, and it could be that Cleveland is simply doing its due diligence in checking to see if Ramirez would be willing to re-up for an even long-term commitment. Still, such a move is noteworthy in the Tribe’s case given how the team has been focusing on moving salaries in recent years, and that strategy has only intensified in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Since August, the team has traded Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco and Francisco Lindor, declined to pick up Carlos Santana‘s $17.5MM option for 2021, and put star closer Brad Hand on waivers last October just to try and avoid a $1MM buyout of Hand’s $10MM club option.
Dating back to John Hart’s days as the Indians’ GM, the club’s strategy for extensions has followed a pattern. The Tribe looks to sign promising younger players to long-term deals early in their career, so Cleveland can lengthen its team control over at least a year or two (whether on guaranteed years or club options) beyond a player’s arbitration-eligible seasons. If that young player indeed ends up blossoming into a star, the Tribe ends up with a bargain through the player’s prime years, and then the player usually ends up either traded or departing in free agency once their team control draws to a close.
While Cleveland has signed a few notable names (i.e. C.C. Sabathia, Travis Hafner, and more recently, Carrasco) to secondary extensions after those initial deals, it would be a significantly bigger financial decision to ink Ramirez to another contract given how he has so firmly established himself as one of the game’s top players. Since the start of the 2016 season, Ramirez has hit .290/.366/.529 with 119 home runs in 2757 plate appearances, and only three players (Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Anthony Rendon) have amassed more fWAR than Ramirez’s 26.2 figure over that five-year stretch. Ramirez has three top-3 finishes in AL MVP voting within the last four seasons, finishing second to Jose Abreu in 2020.
Prior to the 2017 season, Ramirez signed a five-year extension worth $26MM in guaranteed money. He is entering the final guaranteed year of that deal now, though the Tribe has both a $11MM club option ($2MM buyout) on Ramirez for 2022 and a $13MM club option (with no buyout) for the 2023 season. Ramirez turned 28 last September, so assuming Cleveland picks up both options, Ramirez wouldn’t reach free agency until his age-31 season.
With all of the Tribe’s cost-cutting over the winter, there was speculation that Ramirez could also be moved, though Cleveland isn’t yet interested in a full rebuild, adding the likes of Eddie Rosario and Cesar Hernandez to one-year contracts to make another run at a postseason berth. However, the Indians have less than $53MM on the books for the 2021 payroll, and Cleveland doesn’t have a single player officially under contract beyond the 2021 season. Unless the team does go into complete rebuild mode, some of that open payroll space is surely earmarked for future extensions of its next wave of young talent — chief among them Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, though as of last month, the two sides had yet to begin negotiations.
While owner Paul Dolan and Cleveland’s front office have often discussed how a smaller-market team shouldn’t devote much of its payroll to a single player, there is theoretically enough payroll room available to pay Ramirez a superstar-level salary ($30MM+ in average annual value). The Indians reportedly offered Lindor a $200MM extension prior to the 2020 season, and while that offer came before the pandemic changed everything, it indicates that the team is willing to make a big splash to retain a star.
White Sox Discussing Extensions With Lucas Giolito, Andrew Vaughn
The White Sox have been “engaging” with ace Lucas Giolito and top prospect Andrew Vaughn about possible contract extensions, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports. For now, no deal appears imminent with either player. Both Giolito and Vaughn are represented by CAA Sports.
Giolito will be paid $4.15MM in 2021 as per an arbitration-avoiding contract with the White Sox back in January, and the right-hander is under arb control through the 2023 season. Vaughn’s MLB service clock has yet to start, so an extension would make him the third White Sox player (after Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert) in as many years to sign a multi-year contract before making his big league debut.
At the start of March, Giolito said “there haven’t really been discussions about an extension” with the team, though it appears talks have picked up to at least some extent. To some extent, Chicago has time on its side given that Giolito is controlled through 2023, yet naturally the Sox would love to lock up Giolito now before his price tag could continue to rise. If Giolito pitches as well in 2021 as he did over 249 innings in 2019-20 (3.43 ERA with an impressive 32.7K% and 8.6BB%), the White Sox could be looking at an extension worth tens of millions more by this time next year.
Looking at other extensions for pitchers who had between three and four years of service time, Giolito would surely be looking to top the four-year, $45MM deal Aaron Nola signed with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season. That contract covered Nola’s first arb year — he and the Phillies were approaching a hearing — and also contained a club option that gives the Phils control over a second of Nola’s free agent years.
The White Sox could make the case that Nola was a more proven commodity with 569 MLB innings at the time of his extension and hadn’t suffered any major arm troubles, whereas Giolito already has a Tommy John procedure under his belt. Of course, Giolito’s camp could counter that prices have simply gone up in the two-plus years since Nola’s extension, and that Giolito’s durability isn’t a concern after he averaged 175 IP in 2018-19 (and obviously Giolito could have banked many more innings if the 2020 season wasn’t shortened).
Both Jimenez and Robert signed six-year contracts with two club option years attached, with Jimenez receiving $43MM in guaranteed money prior to the 2019 season and Robert $50MM guaranteed in January 2020. It’s probably safe to guess that White Sox GM Rick Hahn is proposing a similar framework to Vaughn’s representatives, so a full eight-year stint would keep Vaughn (who turns 23 next month) on the South Side through his age-30 season.
Selected with the third overall pick of the 2019 draft, Vaughn demolished Pac-12 pitching over three years at Cal, then got his pro career off to a quick start by batting .278/.384/.449 with six homers in 245 combined plate appearances at rookie ball, A-ball, and high-A ball. His 2020 minor league season was wiped out by the pandemic, but Vaughn’s bat is considered so ready for prime time that he is expected to play an important role for the big league team this coming season, projected for the bulk of DH at-bats and occasionally spelling AL MVP Jose Abreu at first base when Abreu needs a DH day.
A pre-career extension would allow Chicago to install Vaughn on the Opening Day roster without any of the service-time machinations that teams often deploy to keep top prospects in the minors for just long enough to gain an extra year of control. Like Jimenez and Robert, Vaughn is a consensus pick as one of the game’s best minor leaguers, ranking high on top-prospect lists from Keith Law (who ranks Vaughn 10th), MLB Pipeline (14th), Baseball Prospectus (14th), Fangraphs (14th), and Baseball America (21st).