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Luis Severino Shut Down Due To Forearm Discomfort

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11:05am: Boone said this morning at Yankees camp that Severino will travel to New York and undergo another series of tests on Monday (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).

February 21, 9:10am: A pair of MRIs and a CT scan have all come back negative, general manager Brian Cashman told reporters yesterday (video link via MLB.com). For now, Severino has been placed on a new anti-inflammatory and will be reevaluated in a few days’ time.

February 20: In yet another bit of troubling injury news for Yankees fans, manager Aaron Boone revealed Thursday that right-hander Luis Severino is experiencing forearm soreness that dates all the way back to his final ALCS appearance in 2019 (Twitter links via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).  Severino also has a loose body in his elbow, per Boone.  He’ll be shut down for at least the next few days and will be examined by team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad tomorrow.  Asked if Severino would be ready for Opening Day, Boone could only reply, “We’ll see.”

While tomorrow’s doctor visit will shed more light on the specifics of Severino’s issue, obviously this isn’t at all how the righty hoped to begin his Spring Training, especially not in the wake of what was essentially a lost 2019 season.  Severino pitched only 20 1/3 total innings (12 in the regular season, 8 1/3 in the postseason) last year after a shoulder injury and then a lat strain kept him from making his season debut until September 17.

Any mention of a forearm injury also raises the specter of Tommy John surgery, the worst-case scenario that would sideline Severino until Opening Day 2021 at the earliest.  Back in 2016 (and on the updated list in 2017), MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum created a model for predicting what pitchers are the largest risks for TJ surgeries, with Severino ranking as having a better-than-average chance at a future procedure in both rankings.

It was a little over one year ago that Severino signed a four-year, $40MM extension that has yet to yield any return for the Yankees.  The deal covered Severino’s four arbitration-eligible years (and, via a club option for 2023, the first of his free-agent seasons) so the Yankees gained some cost certainty with the extension, though it did boost the right-hander’s luxury tax number over the course of the next four seasons.  While a $10MM average annual value is small potatoes for a big-market team like New York, every extra dollar is impactful for Competitive Balance Tax purposes, considering the Yankees were over the luxury tax threshold in 2019 and are currently projected to soar well over the highest luxury tax penalty threshold of $248MM in 2020.

With James Paxton already out of action until at least May, the Yankees’ rotation would take a further hit if Severino is required to miss any time.  Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ are the projected top three in the rotation, with a group that consists of Jordan Montgomery, Luis Cessa, Deivi Garcia, Michael King, and Jonathan Loaisiga now potentially battling for two rotation spots, rather than just the fifth starter’s role in Paxton’s absence.

Archie Bradley Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Diamondbacks

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Diamondbacks closer Archie Bradley won his arbitration hearing against the team, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). He’ll earn the $4.1MM salary figure submitted by his representatives at the BBI Sports Group rather than the $3.625MM sum proposed by the D-backs. That’s a $2.27MM raise over last season’s $1.83MM salary. Bradley will be eligible for arbitration for the final time next winter before becoming a free agent in the 2021-22 offseason.

The 27-year-old Bradley, the No. 7 overall draft pick back in 2011, never quite panned out as a starter but has found his groove in a relief role. The righty has gradually been entrusted with increasing amounts of high-leverage innings and eventually supplanted Opening Day closer Greg Holland as Arizona’s top ninth-inning option in 2019. Overall, he pitched to a 3.52 ERA with 18 saves, 10.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9 and a 45.2 percent ground-ball rate. He’s the clear favorite for save opportunities heading into the 2020 season.

Since moving to the bullpen full time in 2017, Bradley has helped to anchor the Arizona bullpen with a 2.95 ERA (3.24 FIP) and 10 strikeouts per nine inning pitched over the course of 216 1/3 innings. He’s appeared in at least 63 games and pitched at least 71 2/3 innings in each of those three seasons. As it stands, he’s slated to hit the open market in advance of his age-29 campaign, so if he continues on his current trajectory without incurring a significant injury, his age should put him in position for a relatively handsome payday.

With Bradley’s victory and this morning’s last-minute settlement by Phillies closer Hector Neris ($4.6MM with a 2021 club option), all of this year’s arbitration cases have now been resolved. Teams rushed out to an early 4-0 lead over the players but ultimately wound up at a more balanced 7-5 when all was said and done. Now that all of this year’s cases are in the books, you can see the full slate of pre-trial agreements, extensions and hearing outcomes in MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker.

Carlos Carrasco Day-To-Day With Hip Flexor Strain

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February 21: Indians fans can breathe a sigh of relief, it seems. Bell tweets that the MRI revealed a mild strain of Carrasco’s hip flexor but nothing more serious. The club has listed him as day-to-day.

February 20: In more ominous news surrounding an already banged-up Indians rotation, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tweets that righty Carlos Carrasco is slated to undergo an MRI on his right leg. MLB.com’s Mandy Bell tweets that Carrasco entered the clubhouse this morning using a crutch after experiencing discomfort in his most recent workouts. The club offered no further specifics, Hoynes adds.

Carrasco, 33 next month, won American League Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2019 after stepping away from baseball in May following a leukemia diagnosis but returning to great (and well-deserved) fanfare just three months later. He struggled in a bullpen role down the stretch, but the results were secondary to the rapid, remarkable recovery for one of the game’s best and most respected pitchers.

Cleveland is already down a starter following Mike Clevinger’s meniscus surgery. There’s hope that he won’t be sidelined for much of the regular season, but he’s still very early in the recovery process. Regardless, the pair of injuries to two of the Indians’ three most notable starters is a worrisome development — particularly in light of the offseason trade that sent Corey Kluber to Texas.

Right-hander Shane Bieber is the top healthy name in the rotation mix at present. The Indians have a characteristically deep mix of alternatives from which to draw. Right-handers Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Jefry Rodriguez and Adam Plutko all threw in the big leagues last season. Lefties Logan Allen and Scott Moss could be options, too, and well-regarded prospect also Triston McKenzie looms in the upper minors. If the Indians want to add some depth from outside the organization, there are still a few notable names who’ve yet to sign (e.g. Jason Vargas, Andrew Cashner, Clay Buchholz, Clayton Richard, Matt Harvey).

Prospect Notes: Carlson, Graterol, Dunning, Ramos

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The Cardinals’ hole in left field has many fans focused on top prospect Dylan Carlson, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explores the 21-year-old’s potential timeline to the big leagues. The Cards, Goold notes, don’t have a history of service time manipulation — in part because they’re aggressive in trying to lock up key young players on long-term contracts that buy out the seventh year that would be gained by holding a prospect down in the minors. That said, Carlson has limited exposure in Triple-A and several competitors he’ll have to outplay in decisive fashion this spring in order to be considered for the Opening Day roster. Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Justin Williams and waiver claim Austin Dean are all in the mix for at-bats in the outfield. Goold spoke with president of baseball ops John Mozeliak, manager Mike Schildt, teammate Jack Flaherty and Carlson himself about what it’d take to complete the former No. 33 overall pick’s ascent to the Majors. Mozeliak wouldn’t expressly rule out an Opening Day nod for Carlson, indicating that the club would use Spring Training “to figure out exactly what we have.” Barring injury, it’d be a surprise if Carlson didn’t play in the Majors at some point in 2020.

More notes on some of the game’s most promising young talent…

  • The Dodgers plan to utilize newly acquired flamethrower Brusdar Graterol as a reliever in 2020, writes Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. That’s the same plan that the Twins had for the highly touted righty, making it all the more perplexing that the Red Sox claim to have backed away from the three-team iteration of the Mookie Betts blockbuster upon deciding that Graterol was best suited for the ’pen in the short-term. Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts tells Castillo that his understanding of Graterol’s medical review is that he’s “asymptomatic,” and the right-hander has impressed officials with his new club right out of the gate in camp. “A guy with his stuff, it’s just a different look for our bullpen,” pitching coach Mark Prior says. “The ability to bring that kind of raw power, impact into the game is only a good thing for us.” The state of limbo in which Graterol found himself after the Red Sox backed off the initial trade iteration wasn’t easy on the righty, who felt like he “had a weight on top of” him while awaiting resolution.
  • White Sox righty Dane Dunning is slated to throw his first live batting practice of the spring next week, writes MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. That’ll be Dunning’s first time facing hitters since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019. Dunning, 25, was a consensus top 100 prospect heading into the 2019 season but didn’t throw a pitch during the season due to that surgery. Dunning, whom the White Sox acquired from the Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade, acknowledged that he’ll likely be on an innings limit in 2020. There’s no indication as to the organization’s target for him, but Dunning has never tossed more than the 144 frames he logged back in 2017 — be it in college or in pro ball.
  • A knee injury shortened the 2019 season for Giants outfield prospect Heliot Ramos, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi believes that the 2017 first-rounder can “absolutely” ascend to the Majors in 2020, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Ramos wasn’t invited to Major League Spring Training and has only played 25 games in Double-A, where he’ll likely open the 2020 campaign. But the Giants have a fairly wide-open outfield at the moment, with veteran Hunter Pence returning to join Steven Duggar and a pair of corner options with limited track records (Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson). Ramos, who hit .290/.369/.481 in 444 plate appearances between Class-A Advanced and Double-A when healthy in 2019, remains the organization’s top outfield prospect and won’t turn 21 until this September.

NL Notes: Dodgers, Cubs, Bryant, Rockies, Arenado

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Right-hander Brusdar Graterol was part of the first version of a three-team trade sending Mookie Betts from the Red Sox to the Dodgers. But the Red Sox backed out of acquiring Graterol, then with the Twins, in favor of a different package. The Red Sox were concerned that the flamethrowing 21-year-old wouldn’t project as a starter, and they had worries about his health, thereby causing them to back out of landing him. The Dodgers “didn’t disregard” the Red Sox’s reservations about Graterol, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, but they’re happy to have the 21-year-old after acquiring him from the Twins and Betts from the Red Sox in separate trades. “A guy with his stuff, it’s just a different look for our bullpen,” Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior told Castillo. “The ability to bring that kind of raw power, impact into the game is only a good thing for us.” After a period of uncertainty, Graterol is relieved to know where he’ll be playing going forward. “I really felt like I had a weight on top of me,” Graterol said, “not knowing what to do with the situation.”

Here’s more from the National League…

  • Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant is two seasons away from possibly reaching free agent, but famed agent Scott Boras is already touting his client’s value when asked. Boras told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times: “How valuable is Kris Bryant?” He is truly glue. He’s the glue of the team, where if there is a gap offensively or defensively he’s there to fill it. Now he just needs an appropriate nickname, and that is ‘Elmer.’ Because he’s Elmer’s Glue for the Cubs.” And considering Bryant has shown an ability to line up at more than one position and hit in multiple spots in the Cubs’ lineup, Boras said he and others in his office have taken to calling him ”Island Boy.” Whatever nickname you want to give Bryant, it appears he’ll remain a Cub despite an offseason rife with trade rumors. The 28-year-old and the Cubs indicated earlier this week they expect to stay together this season.
  • There have been rumblings regarding a trade that would sent Bryant to the Rockies and fellow superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado to the Cubs. Those discussions became serious enough during the winter that both teams’ owners were on the phone with one another, but the talks didn’t get “that close,” Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com writes. Bryant and Arenado now seem as if they’ll stay where they are, at least to begin the season. Arenado addressed the Cubs rumors, though, per Rogers, saying: “That would have been interesting. That would have been crazy.”
  • As with Graterol, Bryant and Arenado, Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager was a prominent part of trade rumors over the winter. But like Bryant and Arenado, he hasn’t gone anywhere. The former Rookie of the Year didn’t pay much attention to that speculation, however, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register relays. Seager said he was “not bothered, maybe surprised is a better word” by the fact that his name came up in trade talks. Now, barring a blockbuster shortstop acquisition for the Dodgers (Francisco Lindor, for example), they’ll go into the upcoming season with Seager as their starter at the spot. They’re still in better position than most teams there, as the 25-year-old Seager has been one of the game’s finest shortstops since he debuted in 2015.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Rusney, Sale, Indians, Pujols

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Remember Rusney Castillo? Signed to a seven-year, $72.5MM contract in August 2014, the Cuban outfielder had a rough season in the majors with the Red Sox the next year and has barely appeared in the majors since. The Red Sox have minimized their luxury-tax bill by keeping Castillo in the minors, and he’s likely to stay with Triple-A Pawtucket this season, but he’ll be a free agent thereafter. The 32-year-old discussed his status with Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald, saying: “My goal remains the same: I want to make it to the big leagues. And if given the opportunity, give 100% to Boston. That’s the goal, to get up there.”  As Mastrodonato notes, there’s at least an outside chance Castillo will return to Boston late in the season if the team’s well under the tax threshold by then (he’s due a $14.3MM salary, so it could be a tall order to fit him in). Castillo will first have to impress in Pawtucket for that to happen, though. He wasn’t great at the highest level of the minors in 2019, when he hit .278/.321/.448 with 17 home runs in 493 plate appearances.

  • Sticking with the Red Sox, ace Chris Sale has been on the mend from 2019 elbow problems and a recent bout of pneumonia, but he’s recovering well. Sale’s “progressing quickly and could begin to face live hitters soon,” Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes. However, it’s not clear whether Sale will be ready for the start of the season. The 30-year-old had a stunning amount of difficulty preventing runs in 2019, when his ERA ballooned from 2.11 the prior season to a career-worst 4.40, but most of his other numbers looked fine. Sale notched a 3.39 FIP/2.93 xFIP with 13.32 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9, suggesting he’s still a front-of-the-rotation talent.
  • Indians closer Brad Hand turned in excellent overall production yet again in 2019, but his effectiveness waned to a worrisome degree from late June through the end of the season. That was thanks in part to injuries that limited him to 57 1/3 innings – his fewest in more than a half-decade. Hand dealt with left arm fatigue that kept him out of action for a large portion of September, and he ended the year with his worst average fastball velocity (92.9 mph, compared to 94.1 in 2018) since 2012. “For whatever reason this tired arm affected my arm slot and pitches,” Hand told Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com, adding, “This year I’ll probably take a few more steps and stay ahead of it.” Manager Terry Francona’s hopeful that Hand will build up his velocity slowly this spring, as opposed to maxing out before the season starts. This is the last guaranteed year on Hand’s contract, but if he continues to hold his own, it’s hard to believe the Indians (or, if they trade him, another team) won’t exercise his $10MM club option for 2021.
  • Angels manager Joe Maddon will sit down with first baseman/designated hitter Albert Pujols nearer to the season to discuss his 2020 role, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. The 40-year-old future Hall of Famer appeared in 131 games last season, but it went down as the third straight campaign in which he logged below-replacement-level numbers. Pujols batted .244/.305/.430 with 23 homers and minus-0.2 fWAR over 545 plate appearances. The majority of his work came at first, though he may have to battle Tommy La Stella for reps at the position this season. And Pujols probably won’t get much time at DH because of the presence of Shohei Ohtani.

Brewers Sign Brock Holt

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FEB. 20: Holt’s deal is worth a guaranteed $3.25MM, Rosenthal tweets. It comes with a $5MM club option or a $750K buyout in 2021, and has incentives worth $250K each for 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances.

FEB. 17: The Brewers have agreed to a deal with infielder Brock Holt, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). If the physical checks out, Holt will be a late addition to a Milwaukee roster that has already seen multiple infield acquisitions.

Holt was one of the top remaining free agents. The 31-year-old may not leap off the page in many regards but he has been quite a useful player. At his best, Holt has turn in roughly league-average offensive work while contributing with the glove at multiple positions.

It’s hardly surprising that the Brewers wish to provide a Swiss Army knife to skipper Craig Counsell. It’s just that he already has a few in his knapsack. The club had already picked up defensive vagabonds Luis Urias, Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko, Ryon Healy, Ronny Rodriguez, and Mark Mathias this winter, in addition to adding non-roster players Jace Peterson and Andres Blanco.

Among the players added, Holt probably comes with the most functions. In particular, he’s capable of lining up anywhere in the field that doesn’t involve extra protective gear or a climb atop a hill. Holt has played at least 200 MLB innings at six positions and 75 2/3 at one other (shortstop) — and he has mostly done so with solid-to-good grades from metrics.

He has always reached base at a solid rate, producing a career .340 OBP by carrying solid walk rates and strong batting averages. Holt has trended up in the past two seasons at the plate, turning in a collective .286/.366/.407 batting line in 662 plate appearances — a bit above the league-average overall output.

Those nice efforts with the bat came on the heels of a tough 2017 season in which Holt struggled with symptoms of a concussion, vertigo, and anxiety. It’s obviously great to see him rebound since, though Holt has not returned with quite the same athleticism. Once a highly graded and rather swift baserunner, Holt now rates in the bottom third or so leaguewide in terms of sprint speed.

While Holt doesn’t carry drastic career platoon splits, he has been a bit better — especially in the power department — when facing opposite-handed pitching during his career. The left-handed hitter seems likely to supplement the right-handed-hitting Keston Hiura at second base, spend some time in the corner outfield, and perhaps line up occasionally at third base. Fellow left-handed-hitting utilityman Eric Sogard is also primarily a second baseman by trade, but has more experience on the left side of the infield than does Holt and could see most of his action there.

MLBTR Poll: Bounce-Back Year For Rockies?

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A year ago at this time, the Rockies were just months removed from their second consecutive playoff season. It was the first time in the franchise’s existence that it had earned back-to-back playoff berths, and Colorado likely expected the good times to keep rolling in 2019. Instead, the Rockies ended up as one of the majors’ worst teams, finishing 71-91 en route to a fourth-place standing in the National League West.

We’re nearing a new season, but the Rockies don’t look like a team that’ll make a significant rebound in 2020. For one, multiple teams in the Rockies’ division figure to serve as roadblocks to potential improvement. The Dodgers should find themselves among the game’s best teams again, while the Diamondbacks and Padres look to have gotten better since last season.

The Rockies, like their division-rival Giants, have done little to nothing to bolster their roster since the previous campaign concluded. They’ve signed only one major league free agent – inexpensive right-hander Jose Mujica – and have managed to alienate their franchise player. Third baseman Nolan Arenado, who signed a seven-year, $234MM extension last February, has come up in trade talks in recent months. Additionally, he has expressed his unhappiness toward the Rockies for not upgrading the roster around him.

Despite an offseason of rumors, the 28-year-old remains a Rockie – someone they’re currently hoping will help them back to playoff position this season. But it doesn’t appear he has a ton of offensive support beyond shortstop Trevor Story and the outfield tandem of Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl. Meanwhile, Colorado’s rotation was ghastly a year ago, but there haven’t been notable changes in that area. The club’s instead betting on bounce-back years from holdovers such as Kyle Freeland, Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw.

While they’ve done almost nothing on paper to improve themselves since last year’s woeful showing, there’s internal optimism the Rockies will be much better this season. Owner Dick Monfort said earlier this month he believes the Rockies will win 94 games. That’s an especially sanguine prediction for an organization that has never amassed more than 92 victories in a season. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections strongly disagree with Monfort, pegging the Rockies for 77 wins. Granted, those projections aren’t the end-all, be-all – they called for an 85-win Rockies season before 2019 – so perhaps Monfort’s not as delusional as he seems. Regardless, assuming they begin the season with Arenado on their roster, how do you expect the Rockies’ year to turn out?

(Poll link for app users)

Camp Battles: The Indians’ Outfield

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For a team that has averaged 95 wins a year over the last four seasons, the Indians have consistently taken a mix-and-match approach to their outfield amidst this run of success.  Of course, having star infielders (i.e. Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez) and a seemingly neverending pipeline of starting talent can allow a club to put less of a focus on its outfielders, and Cleveland would’ve ideally hoped that more of its highly-regarded outfield prospects would have taken the leap to everyday status by this point.  Still, the Tribe is now entering a fifth season of outfield uncertainty, and hoping that at least one of its question marks can enjoy a true breakout campaign.

Let’s begin with the one everyday lock in Oscar Mercado, though Mercado’s actual position on a game-by-game basis could be in flux.  The 25-year-old is coming off a solid rookie season that saw him perform decently well at the plate (95 wRC+, 96 OPS+) and impressively well with the glove in 698 2/3 innings in center field — +6 Outs Above Average, +5.8 UZR/150, +9 Defensive Runs Saved.  It’s safe to assume that Mercado will get the lion’s share of time in center again in 2020, though his ability to play all three positions will allow manager Terry Francona to shift other players into the outfield based on matchups.

Those other players?  It’s quite a long list:

  • Delino DeShields: Depending on your defensive metric of choice, DeShields was either slightly behind (UZR/150, DRS) Mercado in defensive value last season, or ahead (Statcast ranked DeShields tied for fifth among all outfielders in baseball with +12 OAA in 2019), plus DeShields has a longer track record of outstanding glovework.  It stands to reason that DeShields will handle center when Mercado is used in the corners, though it remains to be seen if DeShields will hit enough to move beyond mere fourth-outfielder duty.  The 27-year-old hit only .246/.326/.342 over 1936 career plate appearances with the Rangers, though it’s possible the change of scenery from Texas to Cleveland could help.
  • Domingo Santana: Signed to a one-year MLB contract (with a 2021 club option) earlier this week, Santana is decidedly not an option in center field, and even the corner outfield might be a stretch for a player who posted some of the worst defensive numbers of any player in baseball.  If Santana does indeed end up being used mostly as a designated hitter, the fact that he was signed at all could hint at the Tribe’s belief that…
  • Franmil Reyes is capable of better things as a right fielder after two seasons of mediocre fielding.  Acquired as part of the three-team Trevor Bauer blockbuster last summer, Reyes hit .249/.310/.512 with 37 home runs over 548 PA between the Padres and Indians in 2019.  The power is already there and the overall hitting potential has shown some flashes of improvement, and though Cleveland used Reyes almost exclusively at DH after the trade, the team surely hopes that they can get at least a couple of seasons’ worth of passable fielding work from Reyes to maximize his overall roster value (even if a mostly-DH role is ultimately in his future).
  • Jordan Luplow: Among all qualified hitters in 2019, only J.D. Martinez and Alex Bregman had a higher wRC+ against left-handed pitching than Luplow, who crushed southpaws to the tune of a .320/.439/.742 slash line and 198 wRC+ over 155 PA.  Even with other big righty bats like Santana and Reyes on hand, Luplow’s incredible splits will ensure that he’ll at least see platoon action, and Luplow has the added defensive edge of being able to play the corners decently well (and could even handle center field in a pinch).  If Luplow is to play a larger role, he’ll have to greatly improve his desultory .596 career OPS over 225 PA against right-handed pitching.
  • Greg Allen: The switch-hitting Allen offers a bit of balance to all of these right-handed hitters, though he hasn’t much from either side of the plate over 586 Major League plate appearances.  Allen can technically play all three outfield positions, though his glovework in the corners is much more highly regarded than his performance in center field.  Assuming at least one of the left-handed bats remaining on this listing emerges, Allen may find himself beginning the 2020 season in the minors.
  • Tyler Naquin: He likely won’t factor into the Opening Day picture, as much as Naquin is making excellent progress after suffering a torn ACL at the end of August.  Still, Naquin looks on pace to return on the shorter end of his original seven-to-nine month recovery period, which adds another left-handed bat to the Indians’ mix.  2019 was shaping up as easily Naquin’s best season since his 2016 rookie year, so a post-hype breakout might yet be in the cards for Naquin if he can get healthy.
  • Jake Bauers: Acquired as part of last offseason’s three-team deal that brought Carlos Santana back to Cleveland, Bauers’ first year with the Tribe was a disaster, as he posted an overall sub-replacement season (-0.4 fWAR) while struggling at both the plate and in the field.  Bauers is still only 24 years old and is a former top-100 prospect, so it’s clearly far too early for the Indians to give up on him, but he’ll be on a much shorter leash than last season.
  • Bradley Zimmer: Speaking of former top prospects, Zimmer missed almost all of the 2018-19 seasons due to shoulder surgery.  MLB.com ranked Zimmer as the 22nd-best prospect in baseball entering the 2017 campaign, but a forgettable rookie season and then his extended injury absence turned Zimmer from building block to afterthought.  He could be the biggest wild card of any player on this list, assuming Zimmer is healthy.
  • Daniel Johnson: A part of the three-player package the Indians received from the Nationals in the November 2018 Yan Gomes trade, Johnson’s first season in Cleveland’s farm system was a successful one, as he hit .290/.361/.507 over 547 combined PA at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Johnson’s strong throwing arm and overall defense alone could earn him steady work as a fourth outfielder at the big league level, so if he can manage to hit as well, there’s certainly room for Johnson gain playing time with the Tribe.

One bit of good news for the Indians in sorting out all these players is that they don’t face any specific roster crunch, as Santana is the only one of these players who no longer has a minor league option.  That affords Francona and the front office the opportunity to freely evaluate these players during Spring Training without feeling forced into a tough roster choice based on team control.  Given the sheer number of outfielders on hand, it also wouldn’t be entirely shocking if the Tribe dealt away from this surplus.  If a few of these names really stand out during camp, Cleveland might feel comfortable enough in its depth to consider one of the other players expendable if another outfield-needy team came calling with an interesting trade offer.

Blue Jays’ Mark Shapiro On Hyun-Jin Ryu Signing

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Although they were then coming off a 67-win campaign and their third straight year without a playoff berth, the Blue Jays still managed to reel in one of the offseason’s highest-ranked free agents. They added former Dodgers southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu on a four-year, $80MM contract – the largest deal they’ve awarded since Mark Shapiro became team president late in the 2015 season. Shapiro discussed the Ryu signing, among other topics, with Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Ryu was tremendous at times in Los Angeles, especially from 2018-19, and will now slot into the top of Toronto’s revamped rotation from the get-go. Still, the commitment the Blue Jays made to Ryu no doubt comes with its share of risk. The club is far from a sure thing to be an immediate contender, for one, so Ryu’s contributions early in the deal may not lead to a vast amount of team success. He’s also set to enter his age-33 season and has seldom been the picture of durability since debuting in 2013. Last year marked the first time since 2014 that Ryu threw more than 150 innings in a season.

The Blue Jays are obviously excited about having won the Ryu derby, but Shapiro acknowledged to Davidi that “time will tell the value return” on the pact. He continued: “Free-agent starting pitching in general is a high-risk market and we’re very aware of that. That’s why we’re so careful. You don’t pound your chest over signing someone. You have all your reasons for doing it, you know the risks going in. We identified the need and felt this was one of the best opportunities for us to get better and take a step.”

The Jays are hopeful Ryu will provide value in each year of the contract, but if most of it comes toward the beginning of it, “It’s certainly not ideal but it’s certainly not disastrous,” Shapiro said. He admitted that “contracts get more risky as a player ages, so you would expect to get more on the front side.”

Toronto’s cognizant that it took a chance in signing Ryu, but the fact that the team has so much young, inexpensive talent gave it the necessary “financial flexibility” to make that gamble. With Ryu on the roster, Shapiro’s all the more confident that the Blue Jays are “going to be good,” thanks in part to the “mass of talent” they’ve built up in recent years.

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