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MLBTR Poll: How Much Will Dallas Keuchel Earn In Free Agency?

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The starting pitching market is off to a rather solid start, even if the movement hasn’t exactly been fast and furious. Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi topped MLBTR’s predicted contract values, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton appear to be landing in range of their own anticipated prices, and Lance Lynn scored a surprising three-year pact.

We’ve seen former Astros lefty linked to a variety of teams, but his market has not been as hot as those of some other hurlers. Multiple reports have the Reds and Phillies in the mix. The Blue Jays are involved, though it’s fair to wonder to what extent. The Braves have been connected, and disconnected. It’s certainly not hard to imagine some other clubs with interest, though we clearly haven’t seen a bidding war develop to this point.

Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Keuchel would secure a four-year, $82MM deal, with the bet being that teams would be willing to promise him a significant AAV but not a terribly long term entering his age-31 campaign. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs pegged the value just a shade higher than we did, at 4/$84MM .Others were somewhat more bullish, with Fancred’s Jon Heyman and his anonymous expert predicting a five-year pact in the $95MM to $105MM range.

Given how the market has developed to this point, what do you expect? Will Keuchel find himself frozen out of the biggest contracts? Do the early signings set the stage for a big payday? Or, perhaps, is he still on track to land where MLBTR guessed at the start of the offseason? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)

Projecting Payrolls: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Winter Meetings are now in full swing, so it’s time to keep this ball rolling and move on to our 11th team. Here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we look into a club who has missed the playoffs for three consecutive years for the first time since the 1990s and has already made (possibly) its biggest offseason splash: the St. Louis Cardinals.

Team Leadership

After over 40 years of Anheuser-Busch ownership, the Cardinals were sold to former St. Louis Browns bat boy and American businessman Bill DeWitt Jr. in 1995. DeWitt has maintained ownership of the club since that time, involving his family in the management thereof. DeWitt’s son, Bill DeWitt III, is has been team president for the past decade. St. Louis missed the playoffs each year from 1988-95, a seven-year postseason drought (nobody made the playoffs in 1994), and they made the playoffs only once during the first five years of DeWitt ownership from 1995-99, reaching the National League Championship Series in 1996. Beginning with the 2000 season, however, St. Louis has made 12 postseason visits while missing out on the tournament only seven times, a remarkable run of success.

The front office is lead by President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak. Mozeliak joined the Cardinals organization in 1996 as a scouting assistant and climbed the ladder, finally becoming General Manager in October 2007 before ascending to his current post in June 2017. In a move that coincided with Mozeliak’s ascension, Mike Girsch was named General Manager.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Cardinals, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers a time of tremendous success for the Cardinals. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

St. Louis spending was largely unchanged for the latter half of the past decade, sticking just south of $100 million each year from 2005-10 before finally crossing the threshold in 2011. Nevertheless, spending didn’t take a big leap for the Cardinals until the rival Cubs emerged as a force in 2015, perhaps fueling a payroll surge in 2016 that hasn’t subsided.

Despite this increased Major League spending, the Cardinals have never paid the luxury tax, nor have they been players for the most significant international free agents. Their laudable ability to develop talent internally has enabled them to eschew massive spending or risk taking in their pursuit of wins.

Future Liabilities

The Cardinals have something of an all-in approach for 2019. See below.

There are some big-money salaries on here, but most of the Cardinals’ commitments are in the form of mid-market deals for relatively short periods of time, many of which expire or feature options for the 2020 season.

Nevertheless, the team’s best hitter, the newly-acquired Paul Goldschmidt, and their best pitcher, the recently-acquired Miles Mikolas, both figure to get massive raises when they hit free agency in 11 months. If both players produce as stars, the club will either make a big play to keep one or both or they’ll enjoy the compensation draft picks that come along with having a pair of free agents decline qualifying offers and sign elsewhere.

The multi-year commitment to franchise icons Molina and Martinez look like good investments. Molina figures to spend his entire career in St. Louis. His 2017 extension all but ensured that. His top-level defense renders this deal a fine use of cash, albeit not the most efficient one. Martinez struggled with injuries in 2018, but he has consistently pitched as an ace, comes at bargain prices thanks to his 2017 extension, and is still, incredibly, just 27 years old.

Contrarily, the multi-year commitment to Fowler looks like a bad one. The former Cub enjoyed a strong year with his bat in 2017, but 2018 was an unmitigated disaster as Fowler failed to get on bad or hit the ball with authority. For a player with a lengthy injury history, he also missed substantial time with a foot injury. He is rapidly nearing pumpkin territory.

The Cardinals feature a trio of players with club options for the 2020 season that are auditioning for that payday. Carpenter is overwhelmingly likely to have his option exercised as the offensive force with defensive versatility fits on every team. Gyorko has recovered nicely after arriving in St. Louis after bottoming out post-extension in San Diego, but his option is a coin flip at best. Gregerson washed out in 2018 with shoulder issues, but a strong 2019 that shows a return to his 2009-16 success could change the script.

Cecil largely provided the desired results after arriving in 2017, but he flopped in 2018, struggling with homers and especially walks. At 32 and having lost two miles per hour on his pitches across the board, he could be dead weight for the club absent a surprising rebound.

One more franchise icon, Wainwright returns for a last hurrah in 2019 on an incentive-laden deal that contemplates a starting or relieving role. Regardless of who he has left in the tank, he won’t cost the club much.

Finally, there are a pair of extensions for athletic middle infielders. Wong came with a first-round pedigree, but his bat has never fully justified that history, save for a strong BABIP season in 2017. His glove and wheels, however, have rendered him a solid regular. DeJong, on the other hand, the 131st pick in the 2015 draft, positively exploded onto the scene in 2017 and showed that it was no fluke with a strong repeat performance in 2018, albeit one that was based more on his glove than his offensive prowess. Nevertheless, DeJong appears to be a league-average bat with legitimate defensive chops at shortstop.

Finally, we hit the dead money. Like so many clubs in the last decade, the Cardinals featured deferred money in big-money deals for Holliday and Pujols, owing the pair $2.6 million annually throughout the 2020s. That’s not backbreaking money, but it’s more than nothing.

As with the Giants before them, given this amount of guaranteed money, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Cardinals have very little in the way of arbitration eligible talent. Ozuna is the big fish with a seat at the arbitration table as he makes his final trip through the process in advance of free agency next winter. Here are their arbitration projections, noting that Chasen Shreve has already come to an agreement at $900,000, a bit below that projected by MLBTR and Matt Swartz:

In addition to Ozuna, Wacha figures to play a key role despite having lost much of 2018 to a lingering oblique injury.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

The Cardinals are talking like an organization ready to push in a whole bunch of chips on the 2019 table, with Mozeliak stating at the Winter Meetings that “simply, we realize the importance of 2019.”

DeWitt turned things up a notch last month, explaining that “there is value in star players” and adding that “we’re aggressive and we’ve got resources to deploy if the right situation emerges.” Incredibly, DeWitt even specifically addressed spending on free agents when commenting about his desire to build a team that perennially wins 90 games, offering up that “frankly, we felt that incremental benefit (of free agents) could get us those last few wins.”

This is not an organization that seems content to watch the Cubs and Brewers rule the National League Central for the next few years.

Are the Cardinals a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

No matter what you hear elsewhere, the answer here is simple: absolutely yes.

Although the Cardinals haven’t signed a player to a contract larger than Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120 million pact, they made competitive offers for Jason Heyward and David Price approaching $200 million each while agreeing to take on over $250 million for Giancarlo Stanton before he ended up in the Bronx last winter. The team hasn’t shied away from monster offers.

As for their roster, even after shipping out Luke Weaver in the Goldschmidt trade, St. Louis is dripping with cheap, controllable pitching behind Mikolas, Wainwright, and Wacha in the form of Martinez, Jack Flaherty, super-prospect Alex Reyes (despite his injuries), and Dakota Hudson, and that’s before factoring in John Gant’s surprising 2018 season. They don’t really need starting pitching help.

The team is loaded up with right-handed bats featuring good-to-great power in Goldschmidt, Ozuna, DeJong, Molina, and defensively-homeless Jose Martinez. Harper would provide an awfully attractive complement in the middle of that order. I’m not sure if Machado fits as smoothly, but Harper sure does.

Watch out for St. Louis on Harper. They make a ton of sense.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The Cardinals will almost certainly avoid reaching taxpayer status in 2019. They’ve never shown a penchant to spend to that degree. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if spending received another boost based on the fact that the team has missed the playoffs for three straight years and given the amount of resources poured into the Goldschmidt and Ozuna acquisitions.

As currently constructed, St. Louis has a payroll of just $148.7 million, $149.3 million for luxury tax purposes. Given historical trends and the pressure to win now, I expect to see a notable one-year jump in spending before the team regroups for 2020 with Mikolas, Ozuna, and Goldschmidt all hitting free agency at the same time.

If spending spikes to $180 million, the team would have $31.3 million of space, nearly enough to sign Harper without any other roster maneuvering. I don’t think that things will get quite that lofty, but even a bit below that figure, there’s enough space for the team to make a relatively simple move — like trading Gyorko for salary relief with the third baseman displaced by Carpenter’s move back across the diamond — to clear space for Harper.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $175 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $26.3 million

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard: The Winter Meetings

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It’s 10:02am in Nashville, Tennessee.  Thursday December 13th, 2018.  My name is Tim Dillard, and if you’re reading this looking for the latest up-to-the-minute coverage of the 2018 Major League Baseball Winter Meetings… then I apologize, this isn’t one of those articles.  In fact, if you’re not in the mood to hear mostly incoherent ramblings from a bearded, smaller than life, Minor League free agent… then you may want to go ahead and X right on out of this thing.  Just tap the back button on your screen, it’s usually in the corner somewhere.  I guess swiping is also an option now depending on your phone.

10:05am  Anyway, if you’re still here, please lower your expectations a bit.  Like I mentioned earlier my name is Tim Dillard.  I’ve been pitching in professional baseball for 16 years.  To answer the question you’re currently thinking:  the hardest pitch I ever threw was 97 miles per hour.  And to answer your next question:  yes, Chase Utley DID almost hit it through the right-centerfield wall. (no more questions)

10:07am  My first season was back in 2003, and I used phone cards to call my parents.  Nowadays I have my own phone, and a website, a podcast, a twitter, and occasionally write for MLB Trade Rumors… when I’m super desperate for cash.  Which happens quite often since I’ve played 93.75% of my professional baseball career in the Minor Leagues.  This percentage could be wrong however, it’s been a while since I was graded in the math department.  (It was a C in college algebra BTW… but I’m not here to brag)

10:11am  Actually, the only reason I decided to write anything today was because the Winter Meetings have been plastered all over MLB Network this week, and it made me think about the time I snuck into the 2015 Winter Meetings in Nashville.

10:12m  I always wondered what went on at MLB’s Winter Meetings, but never had much desire to attend.  It appeared to be more for sports agents, sports writers, and General Managers… and the only players I ever heard about attending were the guys signing million dollar deals or the guys meeting up with their agent person for a free dinner.

10:14am  But during the 2015 off-season I found myself right in the middle of the event.  I was once again a Minor League free agent… which is just a fancy word for unemployed.  And if you’re still looking for a job when mid-December rolls around… trepidation creeps in.  (fancy word for panic)  Every year it gets more and more difficult for older Four-A guys like myself to find places to play.  (Four-A is the term for the group of crusty ball players caught in the web between Triple-A and The Show)

10:17am  So by the time the December Meetings rolled around, I had already called, texted, emailed, twittered, Facebook stalked, smoke signaled, and Game of Thrones raven messaged literally everyone I knew looking for a Minor League spring training invite.

10:21am  I contacted (including… but not limited to) General Managers, assistant GM’s, managers, coaches, coordinators, scouts, farm directors, field coordinators, clubhouse personnel, statisticians, bat boys, and at least 2 mascots.  Unfortunately, I received nothing but crickets.

10:23am  Around the moment I was filling out my Rodan+Fields application so I could sell stuff to my friends… my parents called me.  My dad, former Major League infielder, former Minor League coach, and STILL current role model, told me to try one more thing… a last attempt.  He spoke of a tradition.  A tradition that has seemingly faded away in the age of technology.  The dying art of a handshake at the MLB Winter Meetings.

10:28am  As the story goes, the Winter Meetings was once a place where players could see organizational decision-makers face to face, and ask for a job.  A situation where people who love the game too much to give it up, could “randomly” bump into baseball executives.  So that’s what I did.  Uninvited and determined, I walked into Major League Baseball’s 2015 Winter Meetings with coffee… and a handful of homemade business cards that read: “Tim Dillard RHP” (right-handed pitcher)

10:34am  The massive indoor resort was filled with people from every realm of the baseball universe.  A circus complete with press conferences, interviews, speeches, tv shows, and award ceremonies.  All of which could be accessed with proper credentials… I had no such credentials, so I just walked around.

10:36am  After parading for an hour, I decided to stand at a strategically positioned walkway.  (between the Media Area, hotel rooms, and Starbucks of course)  And so for the next 6 hours I shook many new hands, hugged many old friends, and handed out many RHP cards.  The first person I saw was my former teammate Gabe Kapler!  At the time he was with the Dodgers, but now he’s the Phillies manager.  He asked me what I’ve been doing after all these years, and I told him I was still pitching.  “Still?” he said.  Right after him I saw my former manager Ned Yost!  He was fresh off a World Series Title with the Royals and thought it would be the perfect time to ask him for a job.  After a big hug he said, “Sorry Timmy, I don’t handle the hiring of Minor League coaches.”

10:41am  The next day I stood in the same spot for 7 hours.  By this time people thought I worked there, and began asking me for directions.  I also successfully gave my information to the Cincinnati Reds’ stadium announcer… I thought he was a coach.  Minutes later I saw Astros and D’Backs legend Luis Gonzalez!  I reminded him that my dad coached him years ago, and that I used to shine his shoes!  He was very cool and friendly until I divulged how I once saw him and tried to get his attention by yelling across the parking lot of a Phoenix area pizzeria in 2007.  Suddenly he was late for a meeting.

10:47am  Day three was more of the same.  “Take the left hallway at the top of the escalator, and Starbucks will be on your right.”  But after noticing there wasn’t many baseball people walking around, I left my post and went searching.  I caught wind of some Farm Directors talking with Minor League stadium GM’s over at the MLB Trade Show… unfortunately an Access Pass and name tag was needed to get in.  So I went and stole one.

10:49am  Once inside the Trade Show, I marveled at all of its wonders.  Booths and stands of Louisville Slugger bats, Wilson gloves, Franklin batting gloves, a Racing Sausage, Majestic shirts, bobbleheads, New Era hats, Cheeto-infused popcorn, and a speed pitch booth!

10:50am  I couldn’t find anybody wearing a MLB team polo, so I strolled over to the speed pitch area. The nice people there told me that if I can throw one of the three balls 88 miles per hour into the net, I’d win a signed Nolan Ryan baseball!  “Give me the ball.” I smirked.  These dudes had no idea that I was a professional pitcher, but I knew I was about to go home with a Nolan Ryan ball!  After I wiped orange popcorn off my fingers I let it rip.  First throw… 74 mph.  I was just warming up.  Next throw… 81 mph.  “Oh crap!” I thought.  The final pitch I threw with everything I had… 84 mph.  (I never wanted a DeLorean so bad in my life)

10:54am  Discouraged by my throwing performance and the 20 hours I had spent standing over the last 3 days… it was time for me to go home.  Arguably the hardest thing I’ve ever done in my 13 seasons up to that point.  Even more difficult than the time I tried to make pitches on a mound in Mexico while toeing a buried cinder block.

10:56am  THEN!  Just minutes after the MLB Rule 5 Draft had concluded and my feet heading toward the exit, I heard my name!  Milwaukee Brewers Farm Director Tom Flanagan was flagging me down, and telling me the Rule 5 Draft had possibly opened up an opportunity for me!  We shook hands…  a week later I was a Brewer.

10:58am  Currently I’m a free agent once again (for the 10th time) and would have loved to revisit the Winter Meetings, but wasn’t able to make it over to Las Vegas.  Instead I’ve been intensely watching the TV to see which team is the most desperate for pitching.

11:00am  Oh man gotta go!  The Rule 5 Draft is coming on… never know!

To Be Concluded…

Mariners, Indians, Rays Strike 3-Team Swap Involving Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana

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The close of the Winter Meetings brought with it a interesting three-team trade — authored by none other than Seattle dealmaker Jerry Dipoto, who was apparently operating from a hospital bed. The Mariners have added slugger Edwin Encarnacion while sending recently acquired first baseman Carlos Santana (Encarnacion’s former teammate) to the Indians in the deal. The Rays, too, involved in this swap. They’ll pick up corner infielder Yandy Diaz and righty Cole Sulser from the Indians and send first baseman/corner outfielder Jake Bauers to the Indians

Beyond the players involved in the trade, a reported $5MM will go to the Mariners from the Rays. Seattle, meanwhile, will send a reported $6MM on to the Indians and will also acquire the Cleveland org’s competitive balance pick in next year’s draft. It’s a Round B choice that currently sits at No. 77 — though the exact order of next year’s draft will be altered slightly by the compensation and draft penalization for teams signing players who have rejected qualifying offers. Regardless, the Mariners have likely added a top 80 selection to their slate of picks next summer.

Needless to say, there are some varying considerations at play here. Cash is king with regard to the notable veteran sluggers, who are certainly the most recognizable players in this deal. Encarnacion is owed $24MM through the 2019 campaign (including a buyout on a club option), while Santana’s deal promises him $35MM through 2020 (also with an option buyout).

It’s far from clear that Encarnacion will remain in Seattle when all is said and done. To the contrary, in fact, he may well go to Tampa Bay in a separate swap, per Scott Miller of Bleacher Report (via Twitter), though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times emphasizes there’s nothing “in place or lined up” in that regard (Twitter link). With the M’s looking to shed payroll and boost their talent reserves, they’ll surely be willing to spin off Encarnacion — to the Rays or another rival — if there’s a favorable offer. After all, the organization already acquired and dumped Santana this winter.

Both Encarnacion and Santana will be looking to recover from relative down seasons. The former, 35, slashed .246/.336/.474 with 32 home runs last year, still a productive campaign but not to his usual standards. He’s seen mostly as a DH at this stage of his career, but can still line up at first base on at least a part-time basis. The 32-year-old Santana, meanwhile, turned in a .229/.352/.414 batting line and swatted 24 long balls in 679 plate appearances with the Phillies, who signed him after out-bidding the Indians but soured on the fit this winter. He’s regarded as a solid performer at first and still draws walks at an impressive clip; in 2018, in fact, he took 110 free passes while going down 93 times on strikes.

Working out the math for Seattle, the team will end up sending out $1MM while paring $11MM in obligations, resulting in a net savings of $10MM. They’ll only have one year of Encarnacion to deal along elsewhere, but they’ll also pick up the draft selection for their trouble.

The Indians, meanwhile, will open some additional 2018 payroll space by shedding the big hit on Encarnacion. Santana will cost more ($29MM) in the aggregate, but it’s spread over multiple years. The money from the M’s is split into $2MM and $4MM payments, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer tweets. Plus, there’s the post-2020 buyout. All said, there’s now added cash hung on the 2020 and 2021 ledgers. Presumably, the club is also pleased to bring back a long-time franchise stalwart. Of course, now that Bauers is on hand along with Santana, there are now new trade possibilities here as well. First baseman Yonder Alonso, who’s owed $8MM in 2019 along with a $1MM buyout on a 2020 option, could end up on the move, though Bauers could also factor in the outfield mix and the team could utilize Alonso and Santana as a first base/DH pairing.

On the Rays’ end of the swap, Bauers was long considered a top prospect but clearly wasn’t seen as a key piece for the club. Diaz will enter an ever-changing infield mix in Tampa Bay after a strong 2018 showing in which he posted .797 OPS figures at both the Triple-A (426 plate appearances) and MLB (120 plate appearances) levels. In addition to possessing some of the game’s most impressive biceps and the ability to line up at third base as well as the corner outfield, Diaz will come with six seasons of future control. Rays exec Chaim Bloom says the club likes the versatility and the upside that comes with the 27-year-old (video link on Twitter from Topkin). Sulser, 28, has yet to reach the bigs, but will presumably factor into a deep Rays relief corps after throwing 105 innings of 3.51 ERA ball with 12.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 at Triple-A over the past three seasons.

Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter links), Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (all Twitter links) and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links) were all at the forefront of the reporting on this news.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Acquire Alex Claudio

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The Brewers have officially struck a deal with the Rangers to acquire lefty Alex Claudio, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Texas will receive Milwaukee’s competitive balance pick in the deal, which will deliver the club a draft choice in the range of the 40th overall selection (with the final order yet to be fixed).

Claudio, 26, has made the most of his arsenal with impeccable command and an uncanny ability to generate groundballs and limit dingers. Over his five seasons of MLB action, the southpaw has averaged 6.2 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 with a hefty 62.5% groundball rate.

While he never seemed likely to hang onto the closer’s role he briefly occupied in 2017, Claudio has mostly been an effective relief arm. His lifetime 3.20 ERA, though, reflects a string of productive seasons that was followed by a 4.48 mark in 2018.

The Brewers will hope that most recent set of results was unduly influenced by a .366 batting average on balls in play. Claudio did allow more hard contact than usual (36.0%), but Statcast also felt he was unfortunate to carry a .352 wOBA, with the system crediting him with a .315 xwOBA. Though he doesn’t get many strikeouts, Claudio managed an 11.4% swinging-strike rate in 2018.

Though the Milwaukee relief corps already features one of the game’s most exciting lefties in Josh Hader, he’s utilized as a high-leverage asset. Claudio will presumably serve in more of a specialist role. He has held opposing lefties to a .191/.220/.278 slash over his career.

The Brewers will take over Claudio’s anticipated arbitration salary, which MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project at an affordable $1.3MM. He’ll remain controllable for two more campaigns in the future as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The Rule 5 draft begins at 12 p.m ET as this year’s Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada draw to a close. Those unfamiliar with how the draft works can check out MLBTR’s full primer on the event here, but the short version is that teams with open 40-man roster spots can select players with four to five years of pro experience from other organizations if said player hasn’t been protected on the 40-man roster. Players who signed at 18 years of age or younger but have five years of experience can be selected, as can players signed at 19 or older who have four years of experience. Each selection costs $100K, but it’s not mandatory for teams to make picks. Clubs must carry chosen players on their active rosters (or the major league disabled list) throughout the entire 2016 season. Doing otherwise would expose them to waivers, and they’d then be offered back to their original club. Teams can also work out trades with the original organization to keep the selected player in the organization but send him to the minors.

The Rule 5 order is based on the reverse order of last season’s standings. You can find Baseball America’s preview of the festivities right here. Here are this year’s results:

First Round

1. Orioles — Richie Martin, INF (Athletics)

2. Royals — Sam McWilliams, RHP (Rays)

3. White Sox — Jordan Romano, RHP (Blue Jays); acquired by Rangers

4. Marlins — Riley Ferrell, RHP (Astros)

5. Tigers — Reed Garrett, RHP (Rangers)

6. Padres — full 40-man

7. Reds — Connor Joe, INF/OF (Dodgers)

8. Rangers — Chris Ellis, RHP (Cardinals); acquired by Royals

9. Giants — Travis Bergen, LHP (Blue Jays)

10. Blue Jays — Elvis Luciano, RHP (Royals)

11. Mets — Kyle Dowdy, RHP (Indians)

12. Twins — full 40-man

13. Phillies — Drew Jackson, INF (Dodgers); acquired by Orioles for international draft bonus capacity

14. Angels — pass

15. Diamondbacks — Nick Green, RHP (Yankees)

16. Nationals — pass

17. Pirates — pass

18. Cardinals — full 40-man

19. Mariners — Brandon Brennan, RHP (Rockies)

20. Braves — pass

21. Rays — full 40-man

22. Rockies — pass

23. Indians — pass

24. Dodgers — full 40-man

25. Cubs — pass

26. Brewers — pass

27. Athletics — pass

28. Yankees — full 40-man

29. Astros — pass

30. Red Sox — pass

Market Notes: Reds, Anibal, Phils, Rangers/Mets, Mariners

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After picking up righty Tanner Roark, Reds president of baseball ops Dick Williams promises there’s “more to come,” as Bob Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Certainly, the Cinci front office has been engaged in quite a few intriguing trade scenarios of late, according to reports. It’s still anyone’s guess which will come to fruition. The addition of Roark, after all, largely came together over the course of the last few days, according to Williams and GM Nick Krall. It emerged recently that the Reds are engaged with the Marlins in talks on catcher J.T. Realmuto, the precise parameters of which aren’t clear. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Cinci receiver Tucker Barnhart is not being discussed between these teams. But Barnhart also would not likely end up on a roster with Realmuto. Rather, the idea seems to be that the Reds would ship out Barnhart in a subsequent deal. It would seem possible for the Reds to recoup a quality hurler or backfill on any sacrificed prospect depth in a Barnhart deal, though there are obviously quite a few moving parts here.

More recent market chatter …

  • Agent Gene Mato chatted with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes about client Anibal Sanchez, who’s an intriguing open-market option after an eyebrow-raising 2018 turnaround. Many wonder whether that’s sustainable given the 34-year-old’s struggles over the prior three campaigns, in which he maintained strong K/BB numbers but was torched repeatedly by long balls. Mato points to the development of a cutter that has had a profound impact on Sanchez’s “pitch sequence” — a characterization that certainly matches the righty’s rapidly expanded use of that offering. “Teams realize it wasn’t luck,” says Mato, who points to Sanchez’s success at limiting hard contact after failing to do so in the preceding seasons. Indeed, the veteran was something of a Statcast darling, checking in with an excellent .272 xwOBA and permitting a meager 25.8% hard-hit rate and 83.7 mph average exit velocity. Interestingly, Sanchez has continued to produce yawning reverse platoon splits, but in some regards that only increases his appeal since he’s not susceptible to lefty-loaded lineups. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how Sanchez’s market plays out; he’s one of several hurlers who now seem in position to sign with most of the top assets already leaving the board.
  • The Phillies are “very much in pursuit” of top lefty relievers Zach Britton and Andrew Miller, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. We’ve seen that connection before, of course, but it’s of added note now with the relief market on the move and the Phils having missed on several potential rotation targets. It’s certainly possible the club views these pursuits as largely unrelated, and there are other starters to be had, but it could also redirect its focus to bolstering the pen.
  • It seems the Rangers and Mets have chatted about possible matches over the past few days, with pitching the topic of conversation. MLB.com’s TR Sullivan hints via Twitter that the Texas club would be interested in young hurlers such as David Peterson and Anthony Kay. But the Mets evidently would only be interested in parting with such long-term assets if the Rangers put closer Jose Leclerc on the table. It’s worth noting that, having now already made two significant relief acquisitions, the Mets may be less inclined to do what’d be needed to get the Rangers to cough up the controllable and flame-throwing Leclerc.
  • The Mariners seem quite unlikely to make any big expenditures on veterans after embarking upon a strategy that prioritizes the near future over the present. Still, the organization is lined up to bring in some more solid and reliable pieces, TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune writes. A veteran infielder that can spend time at short, established backstop, and right-handed-hitting outfielder are all on the menu, GM Jerry Dipoto has indicated recently. The relief corps may also be addressed through low-risk, open-market signings, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets.

Phillies Sign Andrew McCutchen

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THURSDAY: McCutchen will earn $10MM in 2019, $17MM in 2020, and $20MM in 2021, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The Phillies, then, were obviously willing to tie up more of their future payroll space on this signing, though it’s hard to gauge just what that portends for the remainder of their offseason.

WEDNESDAY: The Phillies have announced the agreement.

TUESDAY, 6:20pm: McCutchen’s option for 2022 is worth $15MM and comes with a $3MM buyout, Heyman tweets.

1:46pm: The Phillies have a deal in place with free agent outfielder Andrew McCutchen, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic (Twitter link). The agreement is still pending a physical.

McCutchen will reportedly receive a three-year, $50MM contract that includes an option for a fourth season. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter), who first broke the news that the sides were in serious talks, reported the years, with Jon Heyman of Fancred reporting the guarantee and option year (Twitter links).

This contract lands above MLBTR’s predicted value for McCutchen, but falls right in line with our expectations of a three-year, $45MM pact. We had ranked Cutch just behind fellow open-market vets A.J. Pollock and Michael Brantley, each of whom remains unsigned at this stage.

For the Phillies, this is a stage-setting move that fills one need and creates quite a few new opportunities. The organization previously dealt for Jean Segura, meaning GM Matt Klentak has now slotted in new corner outfield and shortstop pieces — without moving on top free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. That’s not to say that pursuit of one of those players is out of the question at this point, but the Phils are certainly also now positioned to look elsewhere if they so desire. Certainly, there’s also an argument to be made that these splashes only make it more reasonable for the club to go big on another free agent.

There are innumerable possibilities, still, for the Phils. The team could conceivably deal just about any of its preexisting outfielders. Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr, Dylan Cozens, and Roman Quinn would all hold some degree of appeal elsewhere. Surely some of those players will remain, but the Philadelphia organization will likely seek to rearrange some other pieces to make further moves possible. In addition to several still-youthful position players, top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez has evidently been talked about in trade chatter, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).

What’s clear, though, is that McCutchen will step into the Philadelphia lineup on most days in 2019. He certainly represents a quality addition, even if he’s no longer the superstar that he was when he was playing with the cross-state Pirates.

Since wrapping up a forgettable 2016 campaign, McCutchen has turned in consecutive solid seasons with the bat. In 1,332 plate appearances over the past two season, he’s slashing a combined .267/.366/.455 with 48 long balls. McCutchen did lag in the power department in 2018, with a year-over-year isolated slugging drop from .207 to .169, but made up for it with a 13.9% walk rate that’s just shy of his career peak.

McCutchen won’t be an option in center for the Phils, though his long experience there could come in handy at times. After a solid debut season in right field last year, he’ll be an upgrade defensively for a club that received atrocious glovework in the outfield last year from Rhys Hoskins, who is moving back to first base. If there’s one area that McCutchen slid most notably, though, it was in the baserunning department. Once a standout, he graded at a putrid -5.0 BsR in 2018. Of course, he also still swiped 14 bags, so perhaps that broader performance is more a blip than an indicator of a significant loss of athleticism.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pitching Notes: Gray, Lynn, Morton, Breslow

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The Yankees are asking for “high-end Major League talent” in exchange for Sonny Gray, George A. King III of the New York Post hears from an official on a team interested in acquiring the right-hander.  This isn’t the first time we’ve heard of the Yankees’ steep asking price for Gray, though as King notes, it may be a while before a trade emerges unless the club is willing to lower its demands.  One can’t blame the Yankees for aiming high, and there’s certainly enough interest in Gray that the team can shop around, though the Yankees may not have quite enough leverage to make such a big ask.  Intriguing peripherals notwithstanding, Gray did have a 4.90 ERA last season, and he has become even more of an expendable piece now that the Yankees are on the verge of re-signing J.A. Happ.  With Happ, Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and C.C. Sabathia all in the fold, there isn’t even any room for Gray in New York’s rotation if the club hangs onto him until Opening Day.

More on the ever-developing pitching market…

  • The Nationals were considering Lance Lynn for their rotation, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter), but they weren’t willing to give the veteran righty the three-year guarantee Lynn seems to have found from the Rangers.  Lynn would have filled the rotation spot left open now that Tanner Roark has been dealt to the Reds, though with Lynn off the board, Washington will keep looking at other veteran arms.
  • The Twins weren’t one of the teams interested in Charlie Morton, according to 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link).  Minnesota is known to be on the lookout for pitching, though the Twins have thus far been more focused on position player additions (i.e. Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron) than new arms.  The Astros, Rangers, and Rays were the only teams known to be looking at the veteran right-hander, who agreed to a two-year, $30MM guarantee with Tampa Bay yesterday.  One would imagine more teams beyond just that trio checked in on Morton, given the righty’s impressive numbers over the last two seasons.
  • Veteran southpaw Craig Breslow is considering retirement, and has been talking with the Red Sox and other teams about non-playing jobs, NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich writes.  The 38-year-old Breslow pitched in the Blue Jays’ minor league system in 2018, and wasn’t able to crack the big league roster in order to add a 13th Major League season to his resume.  Breslow has long been seen as a candidate to move into a front office, managerial, or coaching role once he decided to hang up his spikes, and he is exploring all options as he considers whether or not to move onto this next stage or to continue pitching.

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