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Avila On Tigers’ Anticipated Payroll Timeline

By Jeff Todd | January 24, 2019 at 11:11pm CDT

Tigers GM Al Avila suggested today that his eyes are still fixed well into the future, as Detroit’s WXYZ.com covers. That was largely safe to assume anyway, of course, but his discussion of the team’s financial planning is still important to note.

Avila did not just focus on the club’s expected arrival of new talent at the MLB level. As he put it, instead: “After 2020, our payroll will be in a lot better place for us to be aggressive going into 2021.” That focus on MLB spending is interesting for a few reasons.

For one thing, the difference between the 2020 and 2021 balance sheets isn’t hard to suss out. Both include $30MM for Miguel Cabrera; only the former comes with $25MM for Jordan Zimmermann and the final $6MM owed to Prince Fielder. Of course, those are the club’s only future commitments, so it still seems a bit curious to suggest that the long-term payroll trajectory is the driving force here.

Relatedly, it seems the organization has already largely decided that next winter won’t be an opportune time to push some cash onto the table. The Tigers have spent a decent bit of coin on one-year free agent deals since launching their rebuild, but mostly have targeted veteran gap-fillers who might turn into summer trade chips. It has long seemed interesting to wonder whether the club might consider putting its once-lofty payroll to use by chasing down some reasonably spendy players on the open market, even if it means taking a bit of risk. But it appears that will not be the case this winter or next.

So, when will the Tigers open things up? Avila didn’t make any promises, saying “we will have some money by 2021 to start going out there” but suggesting that hasn’t been pre-determined to be a breaking point. “Whether it be 2021 or 2022, at that point, we will be in a place, from a payroll perspective where I want to be at,” he said. Needless to say, it’s plenty understandable that the club has not yet decided how it’ll act at that point. And it’s also fair to avoid the setting of overly specific expectations. Still, the fuzzy future picture is no doubt less than inspiring for fans who may be looking ahead to two or three more clear rebuilding seasons.

While the Tigers have managed to draw down their spending over the past two years from its $200MM-ish heights in 2016-17, the club has never had a clear path to a quick rebuild. There was over $125MM on the books to open the 2018 season and there’ll be over $112MM to pay this year, due in no small part to ongoing obligations that are vestiges of the team’s last effort to contend. It has also taken a while to get the farm system producing again, too, as the club doesn’t seem to have come away from its post-contention veteran swaps with many significant assets and has only just begun reaping the rewards of top draft position. There are certainly some bright spots in the organization, especially with an intriguing mix of pitching talent building in the minors, but it seems the Detroit organization has no intentions of rushing the process.

NL West Notes: Joc, Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, Giants

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | January 24, 2019 at 8:46pm CDT

Joc Pederson’s name has been raised in recent trade rumblings, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Los Angeles isn’t close to any deals involving the 26-year-old outfielder. The Dodgers may have lost a suitor for Pederson recently when the Braves re-signed Nick Markakis to a one-year contract with a club option, and for the time being, Pederson looks like he’ll be a key part of L.A.’s attack against right-handed pitching. As Rosenthal notes, the Dodgers’ signing of A.J. Pollock was fueled partly by an internal belief that the team would struggle against left-handed pitching. Pollock figures to line up as the team’s primary center fielder, with Cody Bellinger seeing some time there, in the outfield corners and at first base. Pederson, too, gives the Dodgers a potent weapon against righties, though he’s dreadful historically against lefties — which wouldn’t be as much of a concern (if he is retained) with Pollock in the fold.

Here’s more from the division…

The Diamondbacks are still looking to add to the bullpen this offseason, general manager Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. It has been a rather quiet winter in Phoenix outside of the franchise-altering trade sending face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis. As the D-backs have worked to pare back payroll and embark on something of a soft reset, they’ve made some small-scale moves such as the signing of Wilmer Flores and Merrill Kelly (on top of the MLB-level talent added for Goldy). Plus, of course, the club kicked things off by re-upping Eduardo Escobar just before he hit the open market. Plenty of chatter has focused on the team’s remaining potential trade candidates, particularly in the pitching staff, but it’s not clear whether much possibility of tht remains. Regardless, it seems prudent for the organization to pursue some relief arms, given the course it has taken to this point. Presumably, any ’pen additions would be of the measured variety, as the Snakes gear up for what looks likely to be a still-competitive but mostly transitional year.
Meanwhile, Nick Groke of The Athletic takes a look at a sleepy Rockies offseason, which has mostly involved the replacement of the departing DJ LeMahieu with Daniel Murphy. In the subscription piece, Groke describes the Rox’ participation in the market thus far this winter as “an empty freezer more than a hot stove.” The diagnosis, it seems, is a fairly simple one: the club simply doesn’t have the payroll space to pursue more aggressively further upgrades to its lineup. It really is a tricky spot, as the club as presently constituted seems a clear second to the Dodgers in the division. At the same time, there’s a clear opportunity to press ahead due to the vulnerability of the remaining NL West pack and the fact that this is the final season of control over star third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s largely unclear whether GM Jeff Bridich will find a way to further boost the club’s sagging offense this winter, though it seems fair to presume he’s still looking for the right angle — be it a trade or (hopefully) high-value, low-cost free agent acquisition. Boosting the mix behind the plate and in the outfield would make sense on paper; whether it’ll prove feasible remains to be seen.
The Giants have far greater uncertainty in their own outfield, though the club is also in quite a different overall stance. As John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi expressed confidence that the organization would have a suitable slate of outfielders when the time comes. In a statement that helps explain the Giants’ position as well as the overall trajectory of the free agent process, Zaidi explains: “As long as we feel there are good options out there by trade or free agency, the actual pulling of the trigger becomes a little bit less relevant as long as you feel you have some good leads, which I think we do. You don’t want to get in a situation of urgency or even panic.” With the San Francisco organization likely to eschew major, multi-year pacts this winter, it’s certainly understandable that they intend to exercise more patience. It’ll be interesting to see what opportunities might present themselves.

Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, Sergio Romo Generating Interest

By Steve Adams | January 24, 2019 at 6:05pm CDT

Jan. 24: In addition to Madson and Brach (who, as Passan suggested was likely, found a home earlier today when he agreed to a deal with the Cubs), it seems that both Shawn Kelley and Sergio Romo are likely to find a landing spot in the near future.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Kelley is choosing among three teams and could make a decision on his 2019 home “soon.” Fancred’s Jon Heyman, too, tweets that Kelley is being “heavily pursued,” as are both Madson and Romo.

Kelley, who’ll turn 35 in April, posted a 2.94 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 30.2 percent grounder rate in 49 innings between the A’s and the Nats in ’18 — his third sub-3.00 ERA in the past four seasons.

Romo, meanwhile, helped to pioneer the “opener” role with the Rays last season, making five starts in that still-developing role. The 35-year-old (36 in March) had three very successful outings and one quite ugly showing (three earned runs in a third of an inning) as an opener but turned in a 3.88 ERA with a 68-to-16 K/BB ratio in 62 2/3 innings as a more conventional reliever. Romo nailed down 25 saves for Tampa Bay and turned in a 13 percent swinging-strike ratio and a 33.1 percent chase rate.

Jan. 23: As the second and third tiers of the relief market continue to move, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that there are expected to be a number of one-year agreements in the coming days as teams parse the remainder of the bullpen market (beyond top available reliever Craig Kimbrel). Ryan Madson, in particular, has been a popular target recently, Passan reports, adding that Brad Brach is “another to keep an eye on.”

It’s been fairly quiet on both right-handers this offseason, though Brach has recently been connected to the Twins, who are known to be seeking another veteran reliever after already having signed Blake Parker earlier this month. Of course, there are numerous clubs on the lookout for bullpen help, with the Red Sox, Indians, Cubs and Braves among the teams recently still eyeing relief additions.

Madson, 38, turned in poor bottom-line results but promising secondary numbers in a season split between the Nationals and Dodgers in 2018. Chest and back issues cost Madson about three total weeks of time, but he nonetheless logged 52 2/3 innings with 9.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 42.6 percent ground-ball rate. His velocity actually improved over its 2017 levels, as he averaged 95.9 mph on his four-seamer and 95.4 mph on his sinker, per Statcast. Madson also posted a 13.9 percent swinging-strike rate that was his best since returning from a three-year injury absence in 2015.

All of that is to say that while Madson’s 5.47 ERA is clearly unsightly, there are plenty of underlying indicators that he could yet have some run as a quality big league reliever left in his arm. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.98), xFIP (3.97) and SIERA (3.54) all felt that Madson was drastically better than his ERA indicated; the right-hander was, after all, plagued by a .340 average on balls in play and a 64.5 percent strand rate — both of which are significantly out of line with his career levels.

Turning to Brach, the 32-year-old (33 in April) struggled through a tough first half with the Orioles. His walk rate in Baltimore spiked to 4.3 BB/9 — a noted increase from his strong 2016-17 seasons — and he was tagged for a 4.85 ERA through 39 innings before being flipped to the Braves. Brach, though, was torched by a .371 average on balls in play in Baltimore, where a generally poor defensive club didn’t do him many favors. His 12.3 percent swinging-strike rate and 35.9 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches were both solid marks (particularly the latter), and he did improve both his control and his velocity upon being dealt to the Braves.

Brach ultimately finished out the year with a 3.59 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9 and a 46 percent grounder rate in 62 2/3 frames of bullpen work between the two teams. That’s a solid enough season, though if he’s able to rebound to his 2013-17 form — combined 2.79 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 in 319 2/3 innings — he could prove an even more valuable pickup to his next team.

Padres Sign Chris Stewart, Boog Powell To Minor League Deals

By Steve Adams | January 24, 2019 at 5:49pm CDT

The Padres announced a series of non-roster invites to Major League Spring Training on Thursday, with veteran catcher Chris Stewart and outfielder Boog Powell standing out as previously unreported additions to the organization. (A full list of the non-roster invitations can be seen here.)

Stewart, 37 next month, has appeared in parts of 12 big league seasons and frequently served as a backup or third-string catcher throughout that time. A career .230/.297/.291 hitter in 1334 plate appearances, the defensive-minded veteran split last season between the Braves and D-backs organization, appearing in just eight games. Prior to that, Stewart spent four seasons in Pittsburgh, where he totaled 192 games of reserve work for the Pirates. Stewart has consistently graded out as a strong pitch framer and been solid in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt, per Baseball Prospectus, and he’s also registered a slightly better-than-average 28 percent caught-stealing rate in his career.

The 26-year-old Powell (not to be confused with the 1970 AL MVP and four-time All-Star) spent the 2018 season with the Athletics organization after Oakland acquired him in the 2017 swap that sent Yonder Alonso to Seattle. It was actually the A’s who originally drafted Powell back in 2012, though it took a series of three trades for him to eventually land in the big leagues in green and gold.

In 59 games and 160 plate appearances at baseball’s top level, Powell is a .262/.333/.383 hitter with three homers, six doubles, a triple and a steal. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions and has shown a knack for getting on base but limited power during his time in the upper minors; in parts of four Triple-A seasons, Powell is a .276/.358/.371 hitter.

Yankees Sign Adam Ottavino

By Steve Adams | January 24, 2019 at 4:40pm CDT

Jan. 24: The Yankees have formally announced the signing. Ottavino will be paid $8MM annually, tweets Heyman, and he’ll receive a deferred $3MM signing bonus.

Jan. 17, 12:47pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Ottavino will be guaranteed $27MM over the three-year term.

12:42pm :The Yankees have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had reported seconds prior that the two sides were closing in on an arrangement believed to be worth roughly $25MM over three years (Twitter link). Ottavino is represented by All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Ottavino, a New York native who went to high school in Brooklyn, has been connected to the Yankees since before the offseason even began. His addition comes on the heels of a breakout 2018 season with the Rockies in which the 33-year-old righty pitched to a 2.43 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9 and a 43 percent ground-ball rate in 77 2/3 innings of relief.

Ottavino joins an already loaded New York relief corps that features Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green and fellow offseason signee Zach Britton. That group is impressive on its own, before even considering 25-year-old righty Jonathan Holder, who may not yet be a household name but has nevertheless emerged as a quality reliever in his own right. Certainly, no bullpen is ever a sure thing to produce, given the year-over-year volatility of relief pitchers, but in terms of sheer talent and upside, there’s arguably no better collection of bullpen arms in baseball right now.

It should be noted that while Ottavino had a career year in 2018, the two prior seasons garnered more mixed results. Ottavino underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015 and missed the majority of that season as well as a notable chunk of the 2016 campaign. When he returned in July 2016, he was nothing short of excellent, pitching to a 2.67 ERA with a 35-to-7 K/BB ratio and a preposterous 61.9 percent grounder rate in 27 innings.

The 2017 season, however, was brutal for Ottavino, as he averaged 6.6 walks and 1.35 homers per nine innings pitched en route to a 5.06 ERA. Coming off that campaign, few would’ve believed that the righty would put himself in position to score this type of three-year deal on the open market, but his remarkable bounceback effort was an eye-opener. Ottavino’s 12.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t commensurate with the whiff rate you’d expect for someone averaging 13 punchouts per nine innings, and his 26.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches is well below the league average for a reliever. Nonetheless, today’s agreement serves as evidence that the Yankees are convinced of his ability to at least approach his 2018 output as he enters his mid-30s.

In effect, Ottavino will be replacing right-hander David Robertson, who signed with the Phillies on a two-year deal worth a guaranteed $23MM a couple of weeks back. Britton, the team’s other marquee addition, had already finished out the season in manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen following a deadline trade with the Orioles. In that sense, then, one could argue that the bullpen hasn’t definitively improved. Of course, improving on a relief corps that posted the game’s fourth-best ERA (3.38) and the game’s highest strikeout percentage (30.2 percent) is no small feat. At the very least, swapping out Robertson for Ottavino will ensure that the Yankees’ bullpen should maintain its already elite status, even if one or two of the team’s top relievers take a step back in ’19.

The recent additions of Ottavino and DJ LeMahieu, former Rockies teammates now reunited in the Bronx, have added $21MM worth of luxury tax hits to the Yankees’ ledger. That should put them firmly above the $206MM cutoff even if they’re successfully able to find a taker for Sonny Gray and his $7.5MM salary. As Jason Martinez outlines at Roster Resource, the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll currently projects to just north of $224MM, while their actual in-season 2019 payroll — assuming an even $9MM per year breakdown of Ottavino’s deal — currently rests around $209.5MM.

However, the Yankees dipped south of the luxury tax line last season, which reset them back into the lowest penalty bracket. As such, they’ll be faced with a relatively tame penalty — a 12 percent overage tax on every dollar north of the $206MM cutoff point.

The three-year, $27MM value of Ottavino’s contract is likely a bitter pill for the Rockies to swallow, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes (Twitter link). The Rox handed out a pair of three-year deals worth that exact amount when signing Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee an offseason ago, both of whom struggled through awful seasons in year one of those contracts. That pair of signings, however, combined with the $52MM pact given to Wade Davis, surely restricted the Rockies’ ability to make an earnest effort to re-sign Ottavino this winter.

Generally, though, Ottavino’s contract falls well within range of what was reasonably expected heading into the offseason. We at MLBTR ranked him 21st on our annual ranking of the game’s Top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d secure a three-year, $30MM pact with the Yankees.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | January 24, 2019 at 3:42pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of Thursday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

Tigers Claim Kaleb Cowart

By Steve Adams | January 24, 2019 at 2:06pm CDT

The Tigers announced this afternoon that they’ve claimed infielder Kaleb Cowart off waivers from the Mariners, which now gives them a full 40-man roster. Cowart was designated for assignment earlier in the week.

The Mariners had planned to utilize Cowart in a hybrid infield/reliever role, and while the Detroit organization didn’t immediately reveal plans to do so, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets that Cowart will report to Spring Training as a two-way player.

Cowart, 26, was a first-round pick of the Angels back in 2010 but has not yet developed into a reliable big leaguer (hence the experimentation in using him as an infielder/pitcher). In parts of four big league seasons — all with the Halos — Cowart has appeared in exactly 162 games but managed a paltry .177/.241/.293 slash in 380 plate appearances. The right-handed-hitting Cowart has played all over the diamond but has seen the majority of his action at third base (6341 professional innings) and second base (915 innings). He’s a career .289/.361/.469 hitter in just over 1400 Triple-A plate appearances.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/24/19

By Mark Polishuk | January 24, 2019 at 1:49pm CDT

The latest minor moves from around baseball….

Latest Moves

The Rays announced that left-hander Oliver Drake has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A, as Drake cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week. This represents some rare stability for Drake, who has switched organizations seven times within the last nine months and became the first player to ever pitch for five different MLB teams in a single season. Drake posted a 5.29 ERA over 47 2/3 combined innings for his five clubs, with a 9.6 K/9 and 3.00 K/BB rate.

Earlier Today

The White Sox reportedly signed corner infielder Chris Johnson to a minors contract, though he won’t receive an invitation to MLB Spring Training, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Johnson hit .275/.313/.404 over 2995 plate appearances for five different Major League teams from 2009-16, including an impressive 2013 campaign that earned him a three-year, $23.5MM extension from the Braves (which ultimately didn’t pan out for the team). Johnson spent 2017 in the Orioles’ farm system and didn’t play at all in 2018, so the 34-year-old will be attempting something of a comeback as he tries to catch on with Chicago.
The Diamondbacks signed catcher Alberto Rosario to a minor league deal, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports. The 32-year-old backstop will return for his second season in Arizona’s organization. Rosario hit .253/.288/.313 over 179 combined plate appearances for the Snakes’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2018, missing over two months of the season to a pair of DL stints. A veteran of 13 professional seasons, Rosario appeared in 23 big league games with the Cardinals in 2016-17.

Cubs To Sign Brad Brach

By Mark Polishuk | January 24, 2019 at 1:24pm CDT

1:24PM: Brach will earn at least $4.35MM in guaranteed money in 2019, Rosenthal tweets. The mutual option is also more of a dual option for the 2020 season, similar to what we’ve seen in recent contracts for Zach Britton and Yusei Kikuchi. If the Cubs exercise their option for 2020, Brach will receive $9.5MM over the course of the two seasons. If Brach exercises his side of the option but the Cubs do not, Brach is still under team control for 2020 but at a lesser salary.

11:59AM: The Cubs have agreed to sign free agent reliever Brad Brach, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). The deal is a one-year contract worth $3MM, as per Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports (Twitter links), and the two sides hold a mutual option for the 2020 season. Brach, a client of Big League Management Company, will have to pass a physical before the deal is official.

After four years of excellent numbers out of the Orioles’ bullpen from 2014-17, Brach’s production stumbled in the first half of the 2018 season, as he posted a 4.85 ERA over 39 innings with Baltimore. Brach had an untidy 4.4 BB/9 rate over that stretch, though an inflated BABIP may have somewhat unfairly contributed to Brach’s struggles. After a deadline trade to the Braves, however, Brach looked more like his old self, delivering a 1.52 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and a 2.44 K/BB rate over 23 2/3 frames for Atlanta.

On the whole, Brach posted a career-best 46% grounder rate in 2018, though he also had a career-worst 35% hard-hit ball rate, far surpassing his previous high of 29.6%. His fastball also averaged 94.4mph after three years of topping the 95mph threshold, though Brach also threw his fastball less often than usual last season, instead using his changeup with greater frequency in 2018 than in any season save 2015.

These warning signs and Brach’s age (33 in April) may have been enough to lower Brach’s price tag to just one guaranteed season. (MLBTR ranked Brach 41st on our Top 50 Free Agents list, with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd projecting Brach for a two-year, $12MM deal.) The mutual option does provide the right-hander with the ability to test free agency again next winter if he returns to his old form, making the deal essentially a pillow contract.

Brach served as Baltimore’s closer in 2017 when Britton was on the disabled list, and he could very well pick up some save opportunities early next season as Brandon Morrow recovers from November elbow surgery. At the very least, Brach will provide some backing behind Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., or whomever ends up handling the ninth inning while Morrow is out, assuming Joe Maddon doesn’t deploy a committee approach.

Getting the 2013-17 version of Brach for, at most, $9.5MM over two years would be a nice coup for a Cubs team that has been facing a payroll crunch all winter. Even the modest expenditure for Brach, however, puts Chicago into a higher Competitive Balance Tax bracket. As per Roster Resource’s projections, the Cubs now have a luxury tax payroll over just under $229MM for next season, putting them in line for an additional tax beyond the usual 20% “first-time” rate for not only exceeding the $206MM luxury tax threshold, but exceeding it by more than $20MM. There had been speculation that the Cubs could explore trading a big contract or two off its current roster to afford bullpen help or other acquisitions, and it remains to be seen if Theo Epstein’s front office has more moves in store to cut payroll and/or land new players.

Rangers Designate Jack Reinheimer For Assignment

By Mark Polishuk | January 24, 2019 at 11:17am CDT

The Rangers have designated infielder Jack Reinheimer for assignment, as per a team press release. The move creates roster space for Asdrubal Cabrera, whose one-year deal with Texas is now official.

It has already been a busy offseason for Reinheimer, who began November with the Mets but since went to both the Cubs and Rangers on waiver claims. Originally a fifth-round pick for the Mariners in the 2013 draft, Reinheimer has appeared in 23 Major League games, racking up 40 total plate appearances for the Mets and Diamondbacks in the last two seasons. The 26-year-old owns a .275/.343/.361 slash line over 2805 career PA in the minors, and has mostly lined up as a shortstop while also seeing quite a bit of time at second base and third base. This versatility could make him a claim target once more, though if he remains in the Texas organization, Reinheimer provides the Rangers with some infield depth in the minors.

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