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An Early Look At J.A. Happ’s Next Contract

By Jeff Todd | September 14, 2018 at 10:52pm CDT

As you may or may not recall, we have been touting J.A. Happ for a fair portion of the present season, dating at least to our first ranking of the top summer trade candidates. The veteran southpaw has certainly exceeded even the most optimistic expectations since he ended up being traded. Now, as he prepares for the postseason with the Yankees, it’s worth taking an early look at his potential free-agent earnings.

Happ, of course, already went on the market not long ago. At the time, he was coming off of an oddball 2015 season that he finished in dominating form. His resulting three-year, $36MM deal certainly rewarded a strong late-year push from a pitcher who had — just months before — seemed at risk of entering a late-career journeyman phase.

That pact worked out swimmingly for the Jays, who received 77 generally excellent starts from Happ before spinning him off to the division-rival Yanks for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. For New York, the tail end of the deal has been quite a nice asset as well.

In his past eight starts, in fact, Happ has allowed just 14 earned runs on 38 hits, with a 43:9 K/BB ratio, over 46 2/3 innings. For the year, he has averaged a career-high 9.7 K/9 on a personal-best 10.3% swinging-strike rate It’s not all roses, of course. The quality results have come in spite of the fact that Happ has struggled to limit the long ball, allowing 1.4 per nine on the season.

All said, Happ has probably deserved the results — a 3.75 ERA in 160 2/3 innings — that he has produced on the year. The dingers have driven up his FIP (4.01), but xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.60) suggest his outcomes matchhis performance.

Looking ahead, the outlook seems promising. Happ is throwing as hard as ever. His output has been steady and excellent for some time now. And he has a rather long track record of durability, having averaged 153 innings for the past eight seasons and 168 annually for the past four (which will go up when 2018 is completed).

It’s possible that Happ will slot in behind Clayton Kershaw, Patrick Corbin, and Dallas Keuchel to become the fourth-highest-paid starter on this lefty-loaded market. Certainly, the more youthful Gio Gonzalez could also stake a claim to the fourth spot, particularly if he finishes strong, but he has had some rough patches this year and his velocity decline remains a concern. Charlie Morton would be in the same general position as Happ, in terms of his age, but with a more impressive recent showing. In his case, though, he has strongly suggested he won’t just be seeking to maximize an overall contract guarantee; if anything, Morton sounds like a man who’ll only sign on for a single season at a time. Fellow veteran southpaw Cole Hamels could surely also be a factor, particularly at a somewhat younger age, though it remains to be seen how clubs will view the sustainability of his recent performance boost since moving via trade.

Regardless of the precise rank ordering, Happ’s general market position makes eminently possible that a fair number of contending teams will view him as a more appealing target than some of the younger, more expensive pitchers ahead of him. Capturing a quality arm for a shorter term, after all, holds appeal in and of itself. There’s no real chance of Happ signing for more than three years, while it could take a five-year commitment to land Corbin or Keuchel. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that signing Happ won’t mean giving up draft picks since he’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.

So, supposing there’s steady interest in Happ, what’s the contractual upside here? As noted, there’s no real argument for his reps to pursue a four-year term given his age. Happ will be selling his age-36 season and beyond.

That gives us a rather clear bound. But it doesn’t mean Happ can’t still earn quite well. In fact, two recent comps suggest he can. Entering his age-37 season, coming off of an excellent campaign, John Lackey secured a two-year, $32MM commitment from the Cubs. Even more recently, Rich Hill reached three guaranteed years at the same $16MM AAV despite the fact that he, too, was also entering his age-37 year and had no shortage of historical injury issues.

In each of those cases, perhaps, stellar outcomes helped to drive the paydays. Happ, arguably, hasn’t impressed to the same degree in his immediate platform year. But we already know he could secure a $12MM annual commitment. His steady velocity is a highly notable consideration. And the three-year run-up to this free agency has been stellar. (As of right now: 501 innings of 3.47 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9.)

So, there’s certainly a case to be made that Happ ought to out-earn his last contract on an otherwise similar arrangements. Even if he doesn’t quite reach the $16MM annual value level of those prior (and somewhat older) comps, Happ has a very strong chance to achieve more than a $40MM guarantee over a three-year term. And the yearly value could even rise beyond the Lackey/Hill levels if there’s particularly robust interest or if Happ prefers a two-year arrangement.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Bruce Bochy Says He Hopes To Manage Giants In 2019

By Jeff Todd | September 14, 2018 at 8:21pm CDT

Long-time Giants skipper Bruce Bochy left little doubt that he wants to return next season in a chat with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. His current contract expires after the 2019 campaign.

Certainly, the results haven’t been there over the past two seasons — and, especially, in recent weeks. Even if the postseason long seemed a difficult objective after a disastrous 2017 effort, the club hung in the hunt for most of the current season. But the Giants are now closer to last place in the NL West than they are to third, reflecting a brutal stretch of play.

The writing was already on the wall when CEO Larry Baer expressed clear support for the team’s leadership. But it could be that the sudden downturn, along with other unhappy developments such as season-ending surgery for Buster Posey, has upped the uncertainty.

As Shea explains, it’s unclear at the moment whether the club remains committed to Bochy. Similarly, the club’s long-tenured front office leadership has yet to receive any public assurances. Both Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans will enter the offseason with a single season left on their deals, too.

For his part, though, Bochy says he’s still fully on board. “I still enjoy this as much as I did my first year,” he tells Shea. Of course, he also made clear that his drive is based upon the fact that he “want[s] to get back to the postseason.” Just how much of a priority contention will be in 2019 isn’t yet clear.

All things considered, the Giants face an immense amount of uncertainty. The options are limited with about $125MM in salary commitments already written in stone for each of the next two seasons — much of which is tied up in underperforming players.

Whether the uncertainty will lead to wholesale change, though, remains to be seen. Certainly, it’d be hard to lay the struggles of the past two seasons at Bochy’s feet. The roster wasn’t quite up to snuff on paper, even before injuries and declines intervened. Whether or not Bochy shares a significant portion of the blame, though, he could be caught up in a broader shift — if, that is, the club’s ownership decides it’s time to blow up a leadership combination that has brought so much success.

Giants fans, in particular, will certainly want to give Shea’s piece a full read, as he covers a lot of ground on the broader subject of the organization’s situation.

Jerry Dipoto On Mariners’ Struggles, Interest In Retaining Nelson Cruz

By Jeff Todd | September 14, 2018 at 6:15pm CDT

In his most recent appearance on 710 ESPN radio (audio link), Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto discussed his club’s disappointing fade in the postseason race. What had seemed an inevitable march to a Wild Card has turned into a lost cause as the division-rival A’s sprinted past.

It long seemed that the M’s were outperforming their true talent level, but the collapse has still been surprising (albeit less so than the corresponding Oakland surge). Seattle is still 14 games over .500, but it sat over twenty games over for much of late June and July.

Dipoto admitted that the club is at a “bit of a crossroads” at this point, having seen a hoped-for postseason return fall out of its grasp. “We should be embarrassed by it and I am,” says the veteran executive, who says it feels as if the club has “taken two steps forward and then three steps back” over the course of the season.

It’s interesting to hear Dipoto describe things in that manner, as the organization seems largely to be set up to continue pressing forward after the present season. After all, its 2019 payroll already includes over $125MM in guaranteed money before accounting for arbitration salaries or outside acquisitions. Of course, Dipoto could perhaps be referring more to the team’s approaches to roster building and commitments to specific players than its determination to pursue near-term contention.

Notably, that upcoming salary figure also doesn’t include a salary for veteran slugger Nelson Cruz, who is the team’s top pending free agent. Dipoto highlighted Cruz as one of the season’s highlights in the above-linked chat. And he has made clear in other recent comments that the Mariners have every intention of trying to keep him in the fold, as Corey Brock of The Athletic explores (subscription link).

As Dipoto put it in an interview with Seattle’s KIRO-AM:

“I don’t think you could increase the chances we’d want to, the chances we want to are already very high. Everybody wants Nelson here, there’s no question about that.”

Just how contract talks will proceed isn’t clear, but they won’t be impacted by the qualifying offer process since Cruz isn’t eligible to receive one. The 38-year-old would otherwise seem a reasonable recipient despite his advanced age. After all, he has done nothing but mash since coming to Seattle. Through nearly 2,500 plate appearances over the past four seasons, he carries a ridiculous .286/.365/.553 slash with 162 home runs.

Interestingly, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times noted back in June that the organization has already made a run at “a contract setup similar to David Ortiz’s final years in Boston” — i.e., a hefty single-year guarantee with a series of options, at least some of which had vesting elements. Evidently, that approach (or other details of the offer) didn’t strike Cruz’s fancy, at least not to the extent that he was willing to make a deal before the start of the season.

Now that Cruz will have another productive year in the books, he can certainly seek a multi-year deal if he prefers. As Brock explains, some recent injuries are perhaps more a reflection of misfortune than deterioration, and Cruz is a noted workout fiend. Though he’ll be limited to American League teams, and will face a market that hasn’t favored defensively-limited sluggers, Cruz will surely be a popular target if he makes it to free agency.

Pedro Strop Out For Rest Of Regular Season

By Jeff Todd | September 14, 2018 at 4:38pm CDT

TODAY: With an MRI revealing a moderate hamstring strain, Strop won’t return in the regular season, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat was among those to report on Twitter. His postseason availability remains to be seen.

YESTERDAY: Cubs reliever Pedro Strop pulled up lame after grounding into a double play late in tonight’s contest. He says he expects to miss at least a couple of weeks, as Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune tweets, further depleting the late-inning ranks of the Chicago pen at a critical juncture.

Strop was only up to the plate because the heavily worked relief unit was left without other desirable options. Despite a bases-loaded, one-out opportunity, the Cubs sent the veteran hurler up in anticipation of asking him to throw a second inning to lock up a win.

As it turned out, the club won, but Strop was unable to make it back onto the hill. He and skipper Joe Maddon confirmed after the game that it’s a hamstring issue. Understandably, full details of the injury remain unknown at this time.

In large part, Strop’s recovery timeline will simply depend upon how quickly he responds. Perhaps, though, we can expect further indication as to expectations once he’s examined fully in the coming days.

The news leaves the Cubs without their first and second choices in the closer’s role. Top reliever Brandon Morrow is already on the shelf and facing an uncertain path back to the MLB roster. In his stead, Strop has increasingly operated in the ninth inning. Over twenty appearances since the return from the All-Star break, Strop has recorded 11 saves.

At this point, there’s not much to be done but to hope for the best with regard to both righties. Significant outside acquisitions, after all, aren’t a realistic possibility. (Though trades are still possible, through the revocable waiver process, any players changing hands at this juncture are not eligible to participate in the postseason.)

As with Morrow, the 33-year-old Strop is a key piece even before factoring in any added value in a closing capacity. Through 58 frames this year, Strop owns a 2.33 ERA — his fifth-straight season of sub-3.00 ERA pitching in Chicago. After all, going to the next man up still means reducing the quality of the options in the earlier innings, which could lead to increased demands on what’s already a less-than-dominant rotation.

Even if Strop is able to recover by the start of the postseason, any intervening absence will certainly impact the club’s efforts to hold off the Brewers and Cardinals in the division. That makes for an increased challenge for Maddon and his charges, though it might also lead to an even more interesting race for fans of these three teams.

Yankees Activate Aaron Judge

By Jeff Todd | September 14, 2018 at 3:23pm CDT

The Yankees will activate star outfielder Aaron Judge for tonight’s game, skipper Aaron Boone told reporters including SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter links). Though he is not yet cleared to hit in game action, he’ll be able to play in the field and run the bases some while finishing his final preparations with the bat.

Though Judge isn’t quite fully back, it’s still a notable moment for an organization that hasn’t exactly been charging into the postseason. While the Yanks are all but assured of making it into the playoffs, they haven’t made a push for the AL East and are even in danger of losing the chance to host the Wild Card game.

When Judge hit the DL just before the trade deadline with a wrist fracture, the stated expectation of the club was that Judge would miss only about three weeks. That has proven optimistic, clearly, as Judge has been out for about seven weeks already. Now, he’ll try to help the organization win a few more games down the stretch and — more importantly — try to get up to full game speed before the start of the postseason.

It’s hard to overstate the importance of Judge to the Yanks’ hopes. He carried a .285/.398/.548 slash with 26 home runs in 447 plate appearances at the time of his injury, representing a worthy follow-up to his Rookie of the Year and MVP runner-up performance from 2017. While his overall production is down a smidge, Judge was pumping out even more hard contact (47.9%) than he did in the season prior.

The hope, it seems, is that Judge and the team will benefit from the activation even if he’s not yet a full go. A rehab stint would be preferable, of course, but that’s not an option right now. Instead, the expectation seems to be that Judge will participate in a sim game in the near future in hopes of being deemed ready to get back into the lineup.

Gregory Polanco Out Seven To Nine Months Following Shoulder Surgery

By Steve Adams | September 14, 2018 at 1:10pm CDT

Sept. 14: The Pirates announced that Polanco’s surgery also repaired a torn labrum — an injury that severely clouds his outlook for the beginning of the 2019 season. Pittsburgh’s press release notes that typical recovery would be in the range of seven to nine months. Even the short end of that time frame would put Polanco on track for a return in mid April, making it likely that he’ll open next season on the disabled list. If he’s closer to nine months, though, Polanco could be out until early summer of next season.

With Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson, Jordan Luplow, Adam Frazier and Jose Osuna all on hand, the Bucs do have some depth in the outfield, though the subtraction of Austin Meadows in July’s Chris Archer swap removed one high-upside candidate from the mix.

Sept. 12: The Pirates announced today that outfielder Gregory Polanco is undergoing left shoulder surgery. He suffered a dislocation upon sliding into second base this past Friday, and a second opinion from Dr. David Altchek at the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York confirmed that diagnosis while also recommending surgery to stabilize the shoulder. It was already known that Polanco would be out for the remainder of the season due to a bone bruise in his left knee that will require at least six weeks of rehab, but the news on his shoulder is nonetheless an unwelcome development for the 26-year-old.

Meanwhile, the Bucs delivered some ominous news surrounding the health of right-hander Chad Kuhl, as well. Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets that Kuhl’s scheduled bullpen session was preempted yesterday when he felt renewed forearm/elbow tightness while throwing from flat ground. He’s already been out since late June and is now seeking another opinion.

For Polanco, there’s no indication that today’s surgery will impact his readiness for the 2019 season. Pittsburgh’s announcement indicates that further details on the procedure and an estimated recovery time will provided “at the appropriate time.” Depending on the severity of the damage in his shoulder and the findings of the surgeons during the procedure, there’s a fairly broad range of timetables that could ultimately be projected.

The 2018 season was an uneven one for Polanco, who opened the season with roughly league-average output through the first two months of play before erupting with a .303/.382/.626 slash with 11 homers, nine doubles and four triples through 179 plate appearances in June and July. His production disappeared entirely in August (.666 OPS), though he looked to be back on track in the week leading up to his season-ending injury.

Back in 2016, Polanco signed a five-year, $35MM contract extension that spans the 2017-21 seasons and also includes a pair of club options. He’s owed at least $27.5MM over the next three seasons under that deal — a figure that includes a $3MM buyout on a $12.5MM option for the 2022 season.

As for Kuhl, hasn’t pitched since June 26 due to discomfort in that right forearm/elbow, and today’s setback is hardly an encouraging one for his immediate outlook. The Bucs will hope, of course, that surgery isn’t ultimately recommended, though forearm tightness has been known to be a precursor to ligament damage in the elbow.

Kuhl, who turned 26 years of age yesterday, turned in 85 innings of 4.55 ERA ball with a career-high 8.6 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 through 16 starts for the Pirates earlier this year. That bottom-line output is roughly in line with his career marks; since debuting for the Pirates in 2016, Kuhl has pitched to a 4.37 ERA through 313 Major League innings (61 starts).

Tigers Select Pete Kozma, Transfer Jose Iglesias To 60-Day DL

By Steve Adams | September 14, 2018 at 12:54pm CDT

The Tigers have selected the contract of veteran infielder Pete Kozma from Triple-A Toledo and created roster space by transferring Jose Iglesias from the 10-day DL to the 60-day DL, per a club announcement.

The move formally brings an end to Iglesais’ 2018 season and could very well mark the end of his time with the Tigers. The defensive standout is set to hit free agency after the 2018 season and may not factor into the mix for the rebuilding Tigers, though the team doesn’t have an heir-apparent waiting in the upper minors. Dixon Machado could perhaps get another shot, but he’s already been designated for assignment and outrighted off the 40-man roster this season — a move the organization surely wouldn’t have made if it held much belief that he could be a regular contributor for them in 2019 and beyond.

Iglesias will have age on his side as he enters free agency, as he’ll turn 29 in January. His bat has tailed off since a pair of impressive seasons in 2013 and 2015 — he missed 2014 due to injury — but he remains a premium defender at short. In 464 plate appearances this season, he batted .269/.310/.389 which, paired with his strong glovework, made him worth a bit more than two wins above replacement (2.2 rWAR, 2.6 fWAR).

Kozma, 30, spent 15 games with Detroit earlier this season and hit .175/.195/.300 through 41 plate appearances. The former Cardinals infielder hasn’t hit much in Toledo either, posting a dreadful .203/.260/.295 slash through 296 trips to the plate, but he’ll give the team a quality defensive presence off the bench for the final couple of weeks.

Braves Activate Arodys Vizcaino, Place Luiz Gohara On 60-Day DL

By Steve Adams | September 14, 2018 at 12:30pm CDT

The Braves announced Friday that they’ve activated right-hander Arodys Vizcaino from the 60-day disabled list. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Atlanta reinstated lefty Luiz Gohara from the minor league disabled list, called him up to the Majors, and placed him on the MLB 60-day DL due to shoulder soreness of his own.

Vizcaino, 27, was in the midst of a dominant season when he hit the disabled list due to shoulder inflammation in mid July. That injury cost him two months of the season, but he’ll return to finish off a season he began with 32 2/3 innings of 1.65 ERA ball. Along the way, Vizcaino picked up 15 saves and averaged 9.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 0.55 HR/9 with a 32.9 percent ground-ball rate. His return will give the Braves another power arm to add to the relief corps at a time when top relievers A.J. Minter and Dan Winkler have had some struggles.

The Braves, at this point, have all but locked up the National League East, as they hold a 7.5 game lead over a rapidly fading Phillies club that has won just twice in its past 10 contests. A healthy Vizcaino, though, should better position Atlanta for success in an eventual NLDS appearance that few would’ve predicted prior to Opening Day.

As for Gohara, he’ll receive an extra 18 days of big league service that he may not have been expecting when he landed on the minor league disabled list in late August. He’ll still finish out the 2018 season with under a full year of service time, though he’ll be paid at the MLB rate for the final few weeks of the year even though his season is now definitively over.

Mesa Brothers Declared Free Agents By MLB

By Steve Adams | September 14, 2018 at 12:09pm CDT

12:09pm: The Mesas are planning on hosting a showcase for all 30 teams in the near future, Sanchez further reports. He lists the Orioles ($6.5MM), Marlins ($4.3MM), Rays ($3.6MM) and Dodgers ($2.78MM) as the teams with the most remaining money to spend.

Of course, as we saw last offseason in the case of Shohei Ohtani, that picture can quickly shift should those teams (or any other interested suitor) pursue additional international spending allotments on the trade market. The eight clubs that under the $300K limitation mentioned below would likely be particularly amenable to parting with some pool space in exchange for minor league talent.

11:19am: Cuban outfielder Victor Victor Mesa and his younger brother, Victor Mesa Jr., have been declared free agents by Major League Baseball and are now eligible to sign with a big league team, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter). The brothers left Cuba in pursuit of Major League contracts back in May. Neither player meets MLB’s minimum age (25) or professional experience (six years) requirement to be considered a professional. As such, they’ll each be subject to international bonus pools.

While both are prospects of note, the elder Mesa brother is widely considered to be the top talent on this year’s international class, offering elite speed, a plus arm and a generally strong performance in his limited time as a professional in the Cuban National Series. At 22 years of age, he could already be advanced enough for a placement in Class-A Advanced or Double-A, per Baseball America’s Ben Badler, who tabs him as an elite center field defender and potential top-of-the-order bat.

In his most recent full season of play in Cuba, Victor Victor batted a hefty .354/.399/.539 with seven homers, 40 steals, 17 walks and just 19 strikeouts in 290 plate appearances. Scouting information on the 17-year-old Mesa Jr. is considerably more sparse, though he’ll presumably have no shortage of interest around the league. The brothers are the sons of Victor Mesa, a baseball legend in Cuba who enjoyed a 19-year career and has also served as the manager of Team Cuba in the World Baseball Classic on multiple occasions.

To this point, the Orioles and Marlins have been the two teams most heavily connected to Victor Victor Mesa. That pair still boasts the largest remaining signing pools, with the Orioles said at last check to have the largest pool available. And while the Orioles have a long history of sitting out the international amateur market, that philosophy has changed in recent months. Longtime owner Peter Angelos has largely ceded oversight of the club to his sons, John and Lou, and general manager Dan Duquette plainly stated after trading Manny Machado that the organization intended to begin investing in international amateurs.

As of early August, the Orioles’ max offering sat at a hefty $8.25MM following the acquisition of international funds in several summer trades, though they traded $750K of that sum away in a deal with the Phillies and have announced a handful of international prospect signings since that time as well. None of the prospects they signed were high-profile in nature, though, and the Marlins’ pool is lagging considerably behind at $4.35MM as of that Aug. 1 update.

Notably, there are eight teams — the Reds, A’s, Nationals, Braves, White Sox, Astros, Cardinals and Padres — that are in the international “penalty box” after shattering previous spending pools by more than 15 percent and are thus ineligible to sign a player for more than $300K. That, presumably, takes them out of the running in this picture.

It should also be noted that the 2017-21 CBA eliminated the possibility of exceeding the league-allotted bonus pool by any sum; teams are now hard-capped, though they can acquire up to 75 percent of their initial allotment in trades with other clubs. Full details on international signing rules can be seen in our most recent international prospect primer. To this point, the Blue Jays, Indians, Yankees and Mets have been among the more aggressive-spending teams on the 2018-19 international market, leaving them with relatively depleted pools.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Steinbrenner, Boone, Nunez, Blue Jays

By Steve Adams | September 14, 2018 at 9:41am CDT

Beyond the obvious rebuild with which they’re faced, the Orioles have numerous behind-the-scenes questions to answer this offseason, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Longtime owner Peter Angelos has ceded day-to-day operations of the club to sons John and Louis, but the league is still unclear who the new “control” person of the team is at this point. The O’s will also have to make a determination on whether to retain longtime general manager Dan Duquette and/or manager Buck Showalter, as each will see his contract expire at season’s end. Beyond that, the ongoing MASN television rights fee battle with the Nationals will likely have an arbitration hearing in front of a panel of fellow MLB owners in November.

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