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NL East Notes: Mets, Cole, Jay, Braves

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As the Mets have now managed to check off their most pressing needs at fairly reasonable prices, some attention has turned to the question whether the organization might now go on to spend on a starter. GM Sandy Alderson noted that “some opportunities arose for us that probably would not have been expected right after the end of the World Series,” as James Wagner of the New York Times reports. Given the noted health questions for the talented Mets pitching staff, the thinking goes, perhaps the team will look to score some rotation value and thrust itself into clear contention status. To this point, though, the Mets “have yet to engage in meaningful discussions” with free agent hurlers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Rather, the focus seems still to be on finding some pitching depth.

More from the division…

  • At a recent Nationals Hot Stove event, GM Mike Rizzo plainly stated that, as things presently stand, right-hander A.J. Cole is his team’s fifth starter (link via TalkNats.com). “Our number five starter, you know, is A.J. Cole which I’m really looking forward to seeing where he’s at this year,” said Rizzo. “If you look at his numbers last year, his last seven starts were outstanding. He pitched in eleven games last year in the big leagues with eight starts and had a 3.81 ERA… Look at the other teams in our division. See where that ERA ranks on those other staffs.” Of course, fielding-independent metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all pegged Cole north of 5.00, due largely to a 4.7 BB/9 rate and a pedestrian 7.6 K/9 mark. One would think, too, that a strong Spring Training effort from someone such as Austin Voth or Erick Fedde could impact that plan, as could the addition of an arm via free agency or trade. At present, though, it’s certainly noteworthy that the job is Cole’s to lose. Cole figures to make the roster in some capacity, as he’s out of minor league options.
  • Jon Jay “appears to be a consideration” for the Marlins in free agency, FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column. Jay has some local ties, having played his college ball at Miami, though it’s not entirely clear at this point how much the Marlins are willing to spend. Heyman suggests that their payroll is south of the $85MM mark at present, though between the commitments to Wei-Yin Chen ($10MM salary + $8MM deferred signing bonus payment this June), Martin Prado ($13.5MM), Starlin Castro ($10MM), Brad Ziegler ($9MM), Junichi Tazawa ($7MM), Derek Dietrich ($2.9MM), Justin Bour ($3.4MM), J.T. Realmuto ($2.9MM) and Miguel Rojas ($1.18MM) they’re at nearly $68MM. Add in the $13MM they owe Edinson Volquez, the remaining unresolved arb case of Dan Straily and a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and it’d seem they’re still north of $90MM.
  • Heyman also notes that the Braves would add a third baseman if they can find a match on a one-year deal, but they’re comfortable using Johan Camargo there for a year while waiting for prospect Austin Riley to finish off his development in the upper minors. More generally, he adds that they’re looking more at “depth” signings than anything else at this point of the offseason.

Cubs Defeat Justin Grimm In Arbitration

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The Cubs have won their arbitration hearing against righty Justin Grimm, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter link). Grimm will play for $2.2MM in the coming season after filing for a $2.475MM salary.

Grimm, who earned $1.825MM in 2017, struggled to a 5.53 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.93 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 55 1/3 innings for the Cubs last year. The 2017-18 offseason marks his third winter of arbitration eligibility, though due to his status as a Super Two player, he’ll be eligible once more next offseason before reaching free agency upon the completion of the 2019 campaign.

Grimm represented the last unresolved arbitration case for the Cubs, who had previously cut deals to avoid a hearing with Kris Bryant, Tommy La Stella, Kyle Hendricks, Addison Russell and Justin Wilson.

Latest On Market For Lance Lynn

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Free agent hurler Lance Lynn has received interest from “seven or eight teams,” according to a report from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His former team, the Cardinals, is not one of them.

Lynn, of course, declined a qualifying offer from St. Louis at the start the offseason. It seems the club is now content to allow him to leave, knowing that it’ll receive a draft choice after the Competitive Balance Round B selections so long as Lynn signs before this year’s draft.

Clearly, Lynn is worthy of punting some draft compensation. But while the CBA’s new qualifying offer rules have generally put that matter on the back burner, parting with draft value is still a factor in any free agent case. (MLBTR has run down what draft picks each team would need to sacrifice to sign a qualified free agent such as Lynn.)

As we’ve noted of late, Lynn has had a quiet offseason but remains an easy-to-visualize fit with quite a few organizations. Among the teams showing some level of interest, per Goold, are the Brewers and Cubs — two teams that are plenty familiar with Lynn from his lengthy stint with the Cardinals. The article also rounds up reported interest from other quarters, mentioning the Orioles, Twins, Nationals, and Mets as plausible suitors. Indeed, a run through MLBTR’s log of posts involving Lynn shows no shortage of possibilities.

Lynn himself discussed the situation with Goold, though he declined to get into specifics on teams. You’ll want to read the entire piece, as it’s loaded with interesting information and discussion, but generally Lynn suggests he feels comfortable preparing as normal despite his lack of a contract. “I haven’t missed anything,” he said. “There’s nothing really to worry about — at this moment.”

Goold also examines Lynn’s value against prior open-market players, suggesting the Tigers’ signing of Jordan Zimmermann — five years and $110MM, with strong no-trade protection — as a comp. While there’s certainly an argument to be made for that kind of analogy given Lynn’s bottom-line results, the view of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes — as explained first in the MLBTR Top 50 Free Agents list and expanded upon in his free agent profile of Lynn — is that the veteran righty isn’t quite in that stratosphere, due in large part to concerns with the peripherals. MLBTR has pegged Lynn for a four-year deal in the $14MM or $15MM annual range, citing a variety of teams as plausible fits on paper.

In large part, the overall market picture remains much the same as it was when Dierkes set out to evaluate things before the action got underway. Just how Lynn’s situation will shake out, though, is even more difficult to predict now than it was then. The overall tenor of Lynn’s comments, and Goold’s reporting, suggests that this free agent case is not particularly close to resolution.

Zack Wheeler Defeats Mets In Arbitration

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Mets righty Zack Wheeler has won his arbitration case against the team, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Wheeler, a client of Jet Sports Management, will earn the $1.9MM he requested rather than the $1.5MM figure the team sought.

Obviously, the arbitration panel’s decision won’t have a drastic impact on the New York balance sheet for the coming season. And it won’t mean much for the future, either, as Wheeler only has one additional season of arbitration eligibility remaining.

Still, this is a relatively substantial victory — certainly, from Wheeler’s perspective but also for a union that’s currently engaged in a larger rhetorical battle as the free agent market limps along. As MLBTR’s 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker shows, the players have thus far taken seven of ten arbitration cases, with thirteen still left to be decided.

Wheeler, 27, returned from a long Tommy John layoff to make 17 MLB starts last year. He still has a ways to go, though, to regain his former trajectory, as he ended the year with a 5.21 ERA and 8.4 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 over 86 1/3 frames.

Blue Jays To Sign Jake Petricka

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The Blue Jays have agreed to a minor-league deal with righty Jake Petricka, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter). He’ll have the opportunity to earn a $1.3MM base salary with $500K in incentives if he can crack the MLB roster.

Petricka, 29, is a former second-rounder who has delivered good results at times in the majors. Between 2013 and 2015, he posted a 3.24 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 over 144 1/3 innings. Despite the middling strikeout and walk figures, Petricka allowed only five home runs in that span. With a mid-nineties sinker, he has traditionally delivered big groundball rates (61.5% career).

Unfortunately, injuries and performance lapses arose more recently. A hip procedure cost Petrickamost of 2016. And he managed only 25 2/3 innings last year, allowing twenty earned runs but also posting a 26:6 K/BB ratio. He ultimately underwent a nerve transposition and flexor tendon debridement procedure in October of 2017.

At the time of that surgery, it was estimated Petricka would need to lay off for at least three or four months. The White Sox ended up non-tendering him rather than working out an arbitration salary. (He projected to earn $1.1MM.) With just over four years of MLB service on his clock, Petricka could still be tendered a contract in the future.

Petricka’s current status isn’t fully clear, but in all likelihood he’ll be handled with some care as he works back to full health. Whether or not he’ll have a real shot at earning a MLB pen job in camp, Petricka could well represent an interesting option for the Jays at some point in the coming season.

Jake Odorizzi, Collin McHugh Reportedly Drawing Trade Interest

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Starters Jake Odorizzi of the Rays and Collin McHugh of the Astros continue to draw trade interest, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes, though he adds that neither is evidently close to being dealt.

With all the top free agent starters still unsigned, some teams are surely still waiting to see whether they can land a bigger fish before turning to these sturdy hurlers. Still, both are certainly accomplished enough to believe that they could be targeted as more than mere fallback options.

Odorizzi has not even yet turned 28 but already has compiled 705 1/3 innings of 3.83 ERA pitching in his career. On the other hand, he’s coming off of a homer-prone season in which he surrendered a personal-high 4.14 earned runs per nine. McHugh, 30, posted strong results last year after a somewhat tepid 2016 effort, but only after missing a major chunk of the season due to injury. He ended up posting a 3.55 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 63 1/3 frames over a dozen starts.

Importantly, both Odorizzi and McHugh are still playing out their final two seasons of arbitration eligibility, making for a favorable financial situation. Their 2018 salaries remain unresolved, but neither will break the bank. As MLBTR’s 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker shows, the former will play for somewhere at or between $6.3MM and $6.05MM while the latter will land in the range of $5MM and $4.55MM. In both cases, there’s no commitment for 2019; potential acquirers will no doubt value the chance to pick up what’s effectively a floating-price option for an added campaign.

All things considered, it seems clear that there’s excess value in the rights to each player. Just how much — and how much it’ll fetch on the trade market — is an open question. As Rosenthal notes, both teams are looking for something in return in dangling these established starters.

At the same time, of course, the Rays and ’Stros have reasons to move the players in question, largely due to the presence of other pitchers. In that regard, their availability has long been evident. Tampa Bay has long been said to be looking for ways to trim payroll and reallocate some resources; Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote a few days ago that a trade is almost inevitable to take place at some point. In Houston’s case, the club simply doesn’t have an open rotation spot after dealing for Gerrit Cole earlier in the offseason.

Rosenthal pegs the Orioles as a team with interest in Odorizzi and perhaps also McHugh. That’s not surprising, as Baltimore continues to hunt for multiple starters. The Twins have long been tied to Odorizzi, and Rosenthal suggests that remains the case. Previously, too, the Nationals have been connected to Odorizzi.

It’s not difficult to imagine quite a few other organizations having interest in both of these starters, particularly when one considers what it might cost to acquire free agents such as Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, and Andrew Cashner. Certainly, the ongoing availability of Odorizzi and McHugh could continue to weigh down interest in those open-market options to some extent.

There are other plausible trade candidates that could factor in the overall picture, it’s worth bearing in mind. Beyond top targets such as Odorizzi’s teammate, Chris Archer, organizations looking for solid but affordable rotation pieces could try to acquire hurlers such as Patrick Corbin of the Diamondbacks, Dan Straily of the Marlins, or Danny Salazar of the Indians.

Phillies To Sign Ryan Flaherty

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TODAY: Flaherty would earn at a $1.9MM rate if he makes the roster, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. He could also earn a further $300K in incentives and may opt out on March 22nd if he has not been added to the MLB roster.

YESTERDAY: The Phillies and free-agent infielder Ryan Flaherty have agreed to terms, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Presumably, it’s a minor league deal for the CAA client, based on Crasnick’s note that Flaherty will “compete for a job in Spring Training.” He’ll join fellow veterans Adam Rosales and Pedro Florimon in competing for a utility infield spot with the Phils.

Baltimore was said to have interest in retaining Flaherty, who hit free agency this winter after spending the past six seasons with the Orioles. Instead, he’ll head to an organization that has several Orioles ties in the front office; Philadelphia president Andy MacPhail, GM Matt Klentak and assistant GM Ned Rice were all with the Phils at some point during Flaherty’s tenure with the team.

Flaherty, 31, missed a significant chunk of the 2017 season due to a shoulder strain and only took 43 plate appearances at the big league level last year. But, from 2012-16, the versatile utility man averaged 86 games and 245 plate appearances per year with the O’s, appearing at all four infield positions and in the outfield corners.

Flaherty isn’t much of a hitter, as evidenced by a career .215/.284/.355 slash. He does have a bit of extra-base pop, though (.140 ISO) and draws above-average grades for his defensive work at second base and third base. He can play shortstop in a pinch as well, though Defensive Runs Saved (-8) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-4.8) aren’t exactly bullish on his work in 391 innings at the position.

AL East Notes: Pomeranz, Orioles, Blue Jays, Tanaka

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Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz is a year from the open market — a reality that comes with added concern when viewed against the backdrop of the current free-agent landscape — but he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that he’s more focused on the upcoming season than anything else. “Obviously, I know I’m a free agent at the end of the year and I want to have a good year,” says Pomeranz. “…I’m just worried about picking up where I left off and kind of continuing to get better every year like I have every year of my career.” Pomeranz is no stranger to the business of baseball, having been traded four times in his young career as he struggled to establish himself as a quality big leaguer. Since coming to Boston, though, he’s pitched to a 3.68 ERA with 9.1 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in 242 1/3 innings. Pomeranz says his biggest goal in 2018 is to get quicker outs so that he can work deeper into games. Doing so would almost certainly allow him to establish a new career-high in innings pitched; Pomeranz tossed 170 innings in 2016 and a career-best 173 1/3 frames in 2017.

Elsewhere in the division…

  • While the Orioles have been in touch with the majority of free-agent starters available, they’re content to wait out the market for now to see if they can ultimately secure some rotation help on shorter-term deals, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Owner Peter Angelos is wary of locking in another four-year deal just months after Ubaldo Jimenez’s four-year, $50MM landmine is finally off the books, he adds. Crasnick lists Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jason Vargas, Andrew Cashner and Chris Tillman as some of the many possibilities on whom the O’s have been keeping tabs.
  • Aledmys Diaz tells Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith that he informed the Cardinals early in the offseason that he’d prefer to be traded if the team couldn’t find more regular at-bats for him in St. Louis. The Cards obliged that wish, though the trade that sent Diaz to the Blue Jays doesn’t necessarily create an immediate path to regular playing time, either. Diaz, though, spent much of the 2017 season in the minors, and it seems certain that the Jays envision him as a big league piece to at least fill a reserve capacity. “It’ll be nice to look down the bench and see a little more firepower,” said manager John Gibbons of the additions of Diaz and Yangervis Solarte. Indeed, that duo should be a more productive pairing than Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney, each of whom signed minor league deals elsewhere this offseason. And, with a pair of injury question marks up the middle in the form of Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis, it’s certainly not difficult to see Diaz and Solarte both getting their fair share of reps in 2018 with Toronto.
  • Masahiro Tanaka again spoke about his decision to forgo his opt-out clause and return to the Yankees (link via Newsday’s Erik Boland). While Tanaka acknowledged that there were likely other possibilities for him in free agency, the righty doesn’t sound as if he ever gave serious consideration to testing the open market. “…[T]he important thing for me was to follow what my heart was saying, and that’s what I did,” said Tanaka. The right-hander, of course, now looks like he may have been well-served to remain with the Yankees, as nearly every starting pitcher that hit the open market this offseason remains unsigned, with a few exceptions (e.g. Tyler Chatwood, Jhoulys Chacin). “[Y]ou would never know it was going to turn into something like this,” said Tanaka of the stagnant market. Tanaka also spoke about his early struggles in 2017 and spoke about the disappointment over Shohei Ohtani’s decision to sign with the Angels, as well as his excitement to face his countryman down the line.

Matt Davidson Changes Agencies

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White Sox third baseman Matt Davidson has changed representation and is now a client of agent Dan Lozano and the MVP Sports Group, reports Yahoo’s Tim Brown (via Twitter).

A former top-tier prospect, Davidson initially came to the White Sox organization in the 2013 trade that sent Addison Reed to the Diamondbacks. After struggling mightily with Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte in 2014-15, Davidson put together a solid 2016 campaign there and eventually found his way onto the big league roster for the rebuilding South Siders in 2017.

Davidson, 27 in March, slugged 26 homers for the ChiSox in just 118 games/443 plate appearances this past season, though he did so while hitting .220/.260/.452 on the season as a whole. Davidson punched out an alarming 165 times in what was roughly three quarters of a season (37.2 percent of his PAs), so he’ll clearly need to improve his contact skills if he is to carve out any sort of long-term role with the Sox.

As things currently stand for the Sox, Davidson should once again be in line for a healthy share of plate appearances. He spent 60 games at DH last season and could share time with Nicky Delmonico there in 2018, and he can also spell both Yolmer Sanchez and Jose Abreu at the infield corners.

Davidson currently has a year and 145 days of MLB service time, meaning he’d likely qualify as a Super Two player next offseason he accrues a full year of big league service in 2018. The White Sox can control him through the 2022 campaign, should he prove capable of holding down a big league spot in the long term.

Davidson’s switch in representation has been reflected in the MLBTR Agency Database, which contains representation info on more than 2,500 Major League and minor league players. If you see a notable error or omission, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

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