Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.
[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]
Cubs
The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis. The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.
Cardinals
The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn. Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.
Royals
The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas. The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient. If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round. For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.
Rays
The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians. However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation. The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round. If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.
Rockies
The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians. Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency. If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round. If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.
Indians
The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies. Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.
So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76. The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.
That’s the information I’ve been looking for without having to dive into the CBA
Tim, what are the rules on the contract guarantees? For example, what if someone signed a 4 year deal for $40 mil and a player option for $12 mil? They’re under initially but over if they exercise it. Same deal for a team option or an opt out. Just curious how the money is calculated for that $50 mil figure.
That is a fantastic question and I️ look forward to that answer.
I should have mentioned that the $50MM refers to guaranteed money. As to whether a player option counts as guaranteed money, I’m not sure. But a club option would not.
I would think a player option has to count as guaranteed money. Welington Castillo’s deal may have been called a one-year, $6MM contract with a $7MM player option this past offseason, but that contract guaranteed him $13MM.
Saying a player option doesn’t count as guaranteed money would be tantamount to calling Jason Heyward’s contract a three-year, 58MM contract.
A player is guaranteed the money he’d make on a player option or post-opt-out — he just has the opportunity to decline it.
Looking at the CBA, player options indeed count as guaranteed money.
Sorry to be lazy here, I know I’ve seen it somewhere, but what do teams signing said free agents give up?
Never mind. I’m so lazy that I didn’t even notice the link mid article. Idiot!
I may be in the minority but I liked the old rules better when it came to comp picks
Yes.
The compensation for teams losing picks should have remained the same while the penalty for the signing team was removed.
As with everything else in the CBA, the owners reps said “We don’t like that idea, it doesn’t take enough money away from the Players and give it to us” and the Player’s rep replied: “Öh OK, never mind then, whatever you guys want.””
The players lose $0 with this new compensation if anything they make more It creates more of a market by removing any additional incentive to not sign a player. More teams bid more money.
Well if Hosmer, Moustakas, and Cain all leave the royals and sign for more than $50 million, I hope royals use the picks on the best players available. They need to draft guys who can hit very well or pitch since some of their draft picks were just guys who could run fast and were maybe average or below average for hitting.
You mean….what every team has looked for in players since the 1800’s?
Yes, no more bums like Bubba Starling. What a bust.
#DocHalladayForever #WeWillNeverForget
yea drafting guys who can hit very well sounds really insightful. Is this keith law here because that’s some in depth analysis.
The QO system and draft pick compensation is a joke.
That’s weird about the Royals being a revenue sharing recipient. They had a higher payroll than the Cardinals in 2017 who weren’t.
revenue sharing is not related to payroll.
I do not understand why MLB is rewarding large market teams like Houston, Miami, Atlanta, Baltimore (get huge part of Nats revenue), Tampa Bay simply because fans dont like their product. Houston has turned but still does not deserve a bonus