Brewers, San Antonio Missions Announce Triple-A Affiliate Agreement
In something of a surprise move, the Brewers and San Antonio Missions have announced today that they’ve line up on a two-year player development contract. This will be the first year that the Missions will function as a Triple-A club after the Colorado Springs SkySox decided to move their operations there.
Ultimately, then, the Brewers will have the opportunity to tap into a big new market while continuing to work with the same minor-league outfit that had hosted their highest-level affiliate in Colorado. While the San Antonio organization’s ballpark is still in need of some upgrades, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets that there are plans in place to get the stadium up to full speed.
This news brings the affiliation matching dance down to just two teams on either side. Among major-league clubs, the Rangers will now place their top affiliate outside of Texas, while the Nationals are also still without a mate. Those two organizations will surely prefer Nashville — which lies just under 700 miles between both Arlington, TX and Washington, DC — to far-off Fresno, California.
How’d we get to this point? Nashville, of course, had been the site of the Brewers’ Triple-A club for some time before the minor-league outfit terminated the relationship. With an appealing setup, including a new park, the Sounds ended up lining up with the Athletics. But now the Oakland club is going to Las Vegas, which had been abandoned by the Mets when they bought the Nats’ former Syracuse affiliate. As for Fresno, its relationship with the Astros ended when the Houston club saw a chance to link up with former Rangers’ affiliate Round Rock.
Yankees Select Justus Sheffield, Move Clint Frazier To 60-Day DL
The Yankees announced today that they have selected the contract of lefty Justus Sheffield, the organization’s top pitching prospect. He’ll be heading up for his first taste of the majors.
To create space on the 40-man roster, outfielder Clint Frazier was moved to the 60-day DL. The Yanks also brought up righty Domingo German to bolster their pitching options down the stretch.
Sheffield’s promotion was already reported over the weekend, but had not yet formally been made. The organization first had to sort out its roster machinations. Frazier, who came to the club along with Sheffield in the 2016 Andrew Miller swap, is going to be sidelined the rest of the year owing to his ongoing concussion issues.
Now that Sheffield is officially on the roster, it’ll be interesting to see how he’s utilized. Perhaps he will have some opportunities down the stretch, while the Yanks seek to hold off the A’s for home-field advantage in the Wild Card game. And it’s still conceivable that Sheffield could earn a role on the postseason roster.
10 Hitters Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries
No MLB team would evaluate a player based only upon his accumulation of traditional, outcome-oriented statistics. But one of the game’s primary mechanisms for determining compensation — the arbitration process — remains rooted in the kinds of numbers that once dominated the backs of baseball cards.
On occasion, that disconnect can boost a player’s arb earning power beyond the valuation of his actual value. Not long ago, for instance, Chris Carter was non-tendered after leading the National League in home runs. More frequently, the good or bad fortune that can skew the arb results simply means more or less money in the pocket of a given player who is good enough that his team will pay up regardless.
MLBTR continues to model arbitration salaries every fall. While there’s always some tweaking, the basic principles remain as they were when the arb projections began back in 2011. For hitters, the key factors — as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz ascertained many moons ago — are playing time and power. The accumulation of plate appearances, home runs, and runs batted in are the biggest factors in driving earning power through arbitration, even if those are far from the only things that go into making for a productive baseball player.
While prior years’ performances certainly factor in, we’re focused here on which players have done the most in 2018 to boost their next salaries. It took a few assumptions regarding Super Two qualification to make the list, but they seem rather likely to be correct when that’s finalized.
On to the list:
- Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians: Remember when Lindor was supposed to be an outstanding defender and baserunner with a high-contact profile at the plate? Yeah, he has done all of that and topped thirty home runs for the second-straight season, elevating his game along with his arb earning power in an exceptional campaign. Lindor also has 120 runs and 23 steals.
- Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Dingers and defense are the calling card for Story, who’s also getting on base at a .340+ clip after a dip last year. Also helping his cause? Story has driven in over a hundred runs and swiped 26 bags, so there are plenty of counting stats for his agents to make into exhibits if it makes it to a hearing.
- Trea Turner, SS, Nationals: It’s a shortstop rout at the top. Though Turner has modest power, he’s approaching twenty dingers and forty steals. He also continues to play on a more-or-less everyday basis while hitting at the top of the lineup. Topping 700 plate appearances will be another notable milestone to cite.
- Javier Baez, INF, Cubs: Who could forget Javy? This author, evidently. Somehow, I neglected to include the emergent Cubs star on the initial version of this list despite his season to remember, which includes a .294/.328/.566 slash, 32 home runs, and a NL-leading 105 runs batted in through 590 plate appearances. That output will drive a rewarding first trip through the arbitration process over the offseason to come.
- Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins: While he doesn’t deliver eye-popping counting stats and isn’t playing a premium defensive position, Rosario has done plenty in 2018 to boost his arbitration case. Through 589 plate appearances entering play today, he had racked up a .288/.323/.475 slash with a healthy combination of 23 homers, 86 runs, and 76 runs batted in.
- Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs: Similarly, Schwarber doesn’t have a gaudy dinger tally for a corner outfielder and has even less to point to in the other counting areas. But he has put the ball over the fence 25 times in just 478 plate appearances.
- Michael Conforto, OF, Mets: It’s hard to fault Conforto too much for what has been a relatively disappointing season in light of his outstanding 2017 effort. Given his serious shoulder procedure, it’s probably a success in the aggregate. And from an arb perspective, he has done fine for himself. With 25 long balls and 69 RBI through a hefty 578 plate appearances, all before a big game tonight, Conforto will earn well.
- Max Kepler, OF, Twins (likely Super Two): Though he hasn’t broken out, Kepler keeps putting up solid numbers that’ll play fairly well in arbitration. Despite a poor .228 batting average, he could end the year with twenty bombs and six hundred total plate appearances.
- Chris Taylor, INF/OF, Dodgers: No, this hasn’t been quite the follow-up that might have been hoped for after an out-of-nowhere 2017 season. But Taylor is still hitting at an above-average rate and might reach 600 PAs. He also has 16 homers and nine steals on the year and could get a boost for playing up the middle defensively.
- Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers: He has now reached twenty dingers and will likely top at least 75 RBI, so he has some of the counting stats you like to see. He’ll also accumulate over 500 plate appearances. Though Mazara hasn’t yet taken the next step, his volume of work will pay out rather well in the arbitration process.
- Honorable mention: Tommy Pham of the Rays has been solidly above-average, but his stats don’t jump off the page for a corner outfielder. His excellent 2017 season will boost his earnings, but that’s not quite what this post is about. In 2018, thus far, he’s carrying a .425 slug with 17 homers, a dozen steals, and 53 RBI. Meanwhile, Matt Davidson of the White Sox is a likely Super Two player who isn’t going to get to 500 plate appearances, so he falls short of making the list. But he still warrants mention since he’s a sneaky pick here as a player who many likely did not know was already at arb eligibility. With twenty homers this year, he’s one away from 50 total on his resume, so he should command a relatively healthy salary despite his low plate-appearance tally and less-than-stellar overall performance to this point in his career.
Quick Hits: Martinez, Tigers, Reyes, Francisco
Nationals manager Dave Martinez has drawn his fair share of scrutiny over the course of the season, but Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes that his job appears safe for the time being. General manager Mike Rizzo recently said he hasn’t considered a scenario where Martinez doesn’t return, and Janes reports that Nationals ownership deferred to Rizzo’s statement when she asked the Lerner family for comment on the matter.
More broadly, Janes speaks with more than a half dozen Nationals players (and has lengthy quotes from most) who vouch for Martinez. Shortstop Trea Turner and outfielder Adam Eaton are both adamant in their praise for Martinez, while veteran reliever Sean Doolittle describes the manner in which Martinez’s communication with the bullpen has continually improved over the course of the season. Janes points to the strong praise for Martinez from his players as proof that he has not lost the clubhouse, noting that former Nats manager Matt Williams was unable to maintain this level of support in a disappointing 2015 campaign.
Some more stray notes from around the league…
- Tigers skipper Ron Gardenhire announced to reporters today that his entire coaching staff would return for the 2019 season (Twitter link via MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery). That’ll include Rick Anderson returning as the full-time pitching coach — a position he assumed after the Tigers abruptly dismissed Chris Bosio earlier this season in the wake of allegedly racist remarks toward an employee. Anderson, who was Gardenhire’s pitching coach in Minnesota, had previously been the team’s bullpen coach. Lloyd McClendon (hitting), Phil Clark (asst. hitting), former Tigers player Ramon Santiago (first base), Dave Clark (third base), Steve Liddle (bench), A.J. Sager and Joe Vavra (quality control) round out the Detroit coaching staff. Their returns aren’t entirely surprising, as owner Chris Ilitch recently expressed his pleasure with the current direction of his team’s rebuilding efforts.
- Mets infielder Jose Reyes acknowledges that it has been a trying season, but says he’s still not sure he’ll hang up his spikes this winter, as Enrique Rojas of ESPN reports (Spanish language link). It sounds as if Reyes still has the desire to keep going, but also the appropriate perspective on his situation. “When you spend 15 years in the big leagues,” he said, ” it’s obvious that you start thinking about retirement, because we’re not eternal, but right now my physique is one hundred percent. It’s something I’ll think about with my family after the season.” There’s little question that the veteran switch-hitter would be a candidate for a minor-league pact, despite his ugly .196/.268/.332 slash in 235 plate appearances this year, though his prior suspension for alleged domestic abuse could well keep many organizations from showing interest and it’s not evident whether the Mets will ask him back.
- For some, the decision to step away from the game isn’t a permanent one. That may be the case for former MLB reliever Frank Francisco. Per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, via Twitter, the righty is at least weighing a Dominican Winter League return. Though he recently turned 39 and hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2014, Francisco says he’s already working in the lower-nineties with his fastball. It remains to be seen whether the ten-year MLB veteran will even try to make it back to the bigs, but we’ve seen plenty of unlikely stories in the past.
Dodgers Activate Trio Of Relievers
The Dodgers have activated a trio of relievers to augment their bullpen down the stretch. Lefty Tony Cingrani and righties John Axford and Yimi Garcia will all head onto the active roster, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets.
Though the Los Angeles bullpen has actually been quite good of late as a unit, it had some notable struggles before that point and still features a fair bit of uncertainty. With work still to be done to reach the postseason, and playoff roster spots potentially at stake thereafter, the returnees will be most welcome.
In particular, Cingrani looks to be an intriguing (re-) addition to the relief unit. The southpaw has only a 4.84 ERA in his 22 1/3 innings, but has compiled an impressive 36:6 K/BB ratio. He also owns a career-high 13.9% swinging-strike rate, carrying over the leap he exhibited in 2017.
As for Axford, a summer trade pick-up, his first game with his new club was a complete mess but he came back for two effective appearances thereafter. Unfortunately, he has been on the shelf now for over a month. But there were obviously reasons that the Dodgers targeted him — his still-speedy heater and typically hefty groundball numbers perhaps chief among them — so the club still has cause to hope they’ll get some value.
As for Garcia, he had been on optional assignment after struggling with injuries and performance for much of the season. The 28-year-old has still not gotten back to the impressive form he showed as a rookie way back in 2015, with health problems — in particular, Tommy John surgery — limiting him to just 44 1/3 professional innings since that campaign. Garcia has thrown 17 2/3 minor-league frames without allowing a walk and while recording 18 strikeouts this year.
All of these hurlers will be pitching for their own benefit as well, of course. Cingrani and Garcia are both eligible for arbitration. For the former, padding his innings totals will help boost his payday; for the latter, it’s still unclear whether he’ll be tendered, though cost won’t be a factor since he’ll be extremely affordable. As for Axford, who’ll return to free agency at season’s end, his showing will be of particular importance.
Blue Jays Recall Anthony Alford
The Blue Jays announced today that they have recalled outfielder Anthony Alford. He was already on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves will be required.
It’s an oddly timed move on the surface, as Alford — who is by most accounts one of the organization’s top prospects — wrapped up his Triple-A season a couple of weeks back. He’s also the last 40-man player, aside from outfielder Dalton Pompey, to be activated.
As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca explains, though, the timing makes more sense when you look more closely. Alford is being asked up as a way of rewarding him for his efforts this year, Davidi writes, the club is wary of allowing him to accrue enough service time that he may ultimately qualify as a Super Two.
To this point, despite very limited MLB action, Alford has accumulated 101 days of service. Had he spent all of September on the active roster and cracked the 2019 roster very early in the season, he might have been on track for an early arb trip.
As things have turned out, there’ll be no real consideration of Super Two status — at least, that is, at the beginning of the 2019 season. The longer Alford remains in Triple-A next year, in fact, the more important the number of service days becomes, because it’ll also be possible for the Jays to keep him short of a full season of MLB service.
Ultimately, this timing call is hardly a major strategic undertaking, since Alford still needs to show he’s deserving of a full look in the majors. Certainly, this situation doesn’t merit the kind of scrutiny that has attached to decisions not to promote some other, more hyped young players (including a certain teammate of Alford’s).
Alford, after all, managed only a .240/.312/.344 slash line in his 417 plate appearances at Triple-A. That’s not what was hoped for after a strong showing last year at Double-A and in the Mexican Pacific Winter League. After running a 45:35 K/BB ratio in 289 plate appearances at the penultimate level of the minors in 2017, Alford’s 112:30 mix this year is especially disappointing.
Latest On Charlie Morton
Charlie Morton has said on multiple occasions in the past that he’s unsure of how long he’ll continue playing — most recently telling The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan back in April that he is “not going to keep playing for a long time” while pondering the possibility of retirement following the current season. At the time, Morton listed numerous factors — his growing family, his health, the quality of his performance, a team’s proximity to his wife’s family in Delaware — as some of the numerous factors that would influence his decision.
Morton once again commented on his future this weekend when chatting with Kaplan’s colleague, Ken Rosenthal, and while he stopped short of a definitive declaration, he did imply that a 2019 return could be in the cards (subscription link). Morton plainly stated that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to be apart from his wife and children, but he also suggested he still has the desire to compete at a high level: “If I stay healthy and throw well, chances are I’ll try to continue pitching.”
The 34-year-old Morton has certainly checked all the boxes in terms of health and his own personal performance; he’s just 8 2/3 innings shy of his career-high in terms of innings pitched and has turned in an excellent 3.15 ERA with 10.8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 47.1 percent ground-ball rate. Morton did have a brief stint on the disabled list in late August/early September due to some discomfort in his right shoulder, but he required only a minimal 10-day absence. He’s allowed four runs with a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio in 11 innings since returning.
I’ve speculated in the past that Morton is a sensible candidate to accept a qualifying offer, as issuing a one-year offer in the range of $18MM is a veritable no-brainer for the Astros organization. That’d give Morton the opportunity to remain where he’s comfortable and earn at a relatively premium rate while keeping open the possibility retiring to spend time with his family following the 2019 season.
However, if Morton wants to pursue a more significant contract, such interest would surely be there in the offseason — even were he to turn down that QO. Already at this point, even just two full seasons into what looks to be a legitimate late-career breakout, he’s demonstrated more than Rich Hill had when Hill was able to secure a three-year, $48MM pact. Hill’s contract spanned his age-37 through age-39 seasons; Morton is turning 35 this November, meaning a three-year deal for him would end with the same season (age-37) with which Hill’s contract began.
Last year’s free-agent freeze rightly creates questions about what even the most compelling free agents can expect to earn in the upcoming offseason, but there’s certainly a case to be made that Morton has pitched himself into consideration for a deal that would top Hill’s $48MM guarantee — or at the very least, top his annual salary on a shorter-term arrangement. Even if a three-year deal offer doesn’t materialize, Morton should have little difficulty in finding one- and two-year offers that are enticing for a player whose career earnings to date sit a bit shy of $41MM.
Athletics Move Triple-A Team To Las Vegas
The Athletics announced Monday that they’ve moved their Triple-A club from Nashville to Las Vegas, forging a partnership with the Vegas 51s for the first season of their newly constructed stadium. It’s a two-year deal partnership between the two sides, and while that’s a fairly short term, the two sides could easily extend that player development contract (PDC) for another two to four seasons after the 2020 campaign, as is frequently the case.
Las Vegas had previously been home to the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate, but the Mets purchased the Syracuse Chiefs last winter with the intention of moving their Triple-A club to a considerably more favorable location (geographically speaking).
Oakland was one of five organizations reported to be facing a potential relocation of its top affiliate, and the move to Vegas will now leave Nashville as one of four potential partner cities for the remaining clubs. Notably, the Nationals were reported to have interest in partnering with Nashville, now that their former Syracuse location is home to the Mets’ top affiliate.
For the A’s, they’ll step into a newly constructed facility in Summerlin — about 13 miles from the Las Vegas Strip. Richard Velotta and Betsy Helfand of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported last year that construction costs on Las Vegas Ballpark, the stadium’s formal name, would total $150MM.
“It is an incredibly exciting time to partner with the Las Vegas 51s,” said Athletics executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane in the press release accompanying the announcement. “Their ownership group is committed to providing a first-class environment for our players, which includes the grand opening of the Las Vegas Ballpark for the inaugural season of our affiliation. We’re looking forward to working closely with Don Logan and his staff as we both work towards putting a championship club on the field.”
“The new PDC will provide a tremendous environment for the players with the state-of-the-art amenities that will enhance player development with the indoor hitting cages, mounds and workout areas in the Las Vegas Ballpark,” 51s president and COO Don Logan said in a statement of his own. “…McCarran International Airport has non-stop flights to the numerous [Pacific Coast League] markets, as well as the big cities, that enables our team to have the best travel in the 16-team league. This will be a great situation for our fans to watch top prospects in the A’s system as well as players on Major League rehabilitation assignments showcase their talents in the Las Vegas Ballpark.”
Orioles Notes: Duquette, Ripken, Mesa, Jones
There’s little certainty regarding the future outlook among Orioles leadership, with both general manager Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter in the final few weeks of their contracts. Duquette said last night on 105.7 FM The Fan that he’s not sure what the future holds but expressed a desire to remain with the O’s throughout their rebuild and beyond (via Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com). “My heart’s here,” said Duquette. “And I’m happy to lead the rebuild and looking forward to it. But I don’t control those things.”
Meanwhile, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal speculates in his latest notes column that team legend Cal Ripken could find a role with the team (subscription link). While Ripken has “no interest in managing,” per Rosenthal, the O’s did bring another club legend, Eddie Murray, on board as a special advisor to ownership. Rosenthal briefly explores a hypothetical but drastically more influential position more along the lines of Derek Jeter‘s role with the Marlins, though he ultimately tabs the scenario is a “long shot.”
More out of Baltimore…
- Melewski also quotes Duquette with regard to the team’s interest in top Cuban outfielder Victor Victor Mesa, who was recently declared a free agent by Major League Baseball. The GM declined to call his club any sort of favorite to sign Mesa, despite the fact that the Orioles have the top international bonus pool available, but he did reaffirm the Orioles’ philosophical shift on the international market and once again voice a strong commitment to continuing to add international amateurs, as the O’s have over the past six weeks. As for Mesa specifically, Duquette acknowledged some intrigue but added that the O’s still need to do some homework. “We don’t have that significant a scouting portfolio on him,” said Duquette. “We saw him in the (World Baseball Classic), so we’re going to have to get up to speed.”
- Showalter is in something of a tough spot with venerable club leader Adam Jones, a free agent at season’s end whose future with the club is uncertain. The O’s recently benched Jones for an entire three-game series on the road, in favor of younger players with more control. Jones has played more for the Orioles at home as the season winds down, and Showalter discussed the difficulties and the varying factors that play into the decisions with Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Showalter said both he and the front office “have always wanted to play” Jones. The Orioles do need to get looks at younger players, though, and Showalter spoke broadly and somewhat vaguely about the need to balance his desire to play Jones with other factors, including what type of crowd will be on hand the day in question and whether the Orioles’ opponent is in a playoff race.
Five Teams Set For Potential Triple-A Affiliate Changes
The majority of clubs throughout Major League Baseball have already announced that they’ve renewed their player development contracts with their Triple-A affiliates, but there are still five clubs that don’t have a clear plan in place just yet. Notably, the Astros and the Fresno Grizzles announced yesterday that they will not be renewing their partnership. As MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart writes, that should pave the way for the ‘Stros to land in Round Rock (where they previously had their Triple-A club for a decade). Astros president of business operations Reid Ryan said a return to Round Rock is “at the top of our list,” McTaggart notes, adding that the Ryan family owns the Round Rock Express.
That move, of course, would leave the Rangers searching for a new affiliate, though Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News wrote over the weekend that the Rangers could well end up in San Antonio, where a Triple-A franchise will be added as Colorado Springs loses its Triple-A designation (a move that’ll leave the Brewers, currently in Colorado Springs, looking for a new home as well). As Fraley explores, the facilities to which the Rangers could relocate in San Antonio are currently lacking, which could potentially prove detrimental in pursuing minor league free agents. However, sticking in Texas would come with greater marketing opportunities and a preexisting fan base from which to draw.
The Brewers, Nationals and Athletics are the three other clubs that are yet undecided on next year’s affiliations. The Nats will be seeking a new partner following the post-2017 announcement that the Mets had purchased the Syracuse Chiefs (securing a much-needed geographic upgrade over their current home in Las Vegas). The Athletics, in similar fashion, would reap significant geographic benefits by moving from their current home in Nashville to either Fresno or Las Vegas.
Betsy Helfand of the Las Vegas Journal-Review notes that the Nationals have expressed interest in moving to Nashville, while Bryant-Jon Anteola of the Fresno Bee suggests that the A’s would likely have their pick between Fresno and Las Vegas, as both would prefer to partner with the Athletics for geographic reasons, giving Oakland the advantage. That’ll present the A’s with the decision of whether to play in California or move to a newly constructed facility Vegas and seems likely to leave the Brewers with an even larger gap between their big league club and their top minor league affiliate, though they’ll be moving into improved facilities either way.