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MLBTR Mailbag: Moustakas, CarGo, Jays, Moncada

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Thanks, as always for your questions! Remember, you can also pose your inquiries to our writers during any of three weekly chats: myself on Tuesdays at 2:00pm CST; Jason Martinez on Wednesdays at 6:30pm CST; and Jeff Todd on Thursdays at 2:00pm CST.

Do you think the Mets should go hard after Mike Moustakas in the off season? What kind of an offer could land him? — Mike O.

At this point, as sad as it is to say, I don’t see how the Mets’ front office can head into 2018 under the expectation that they can get any notable contribution out of David Wright. (That’s all the more true after today’s news that Wright’s rehab assignment has been halted after he experienced shoulder pain.) Viewed through that lens, Moose makes sense as a somewhat reasonable on-paper target for the Mets, who don’t have an upper-level third base prospect that’s forcing his way into their plans.

The Mets do, however, possess quite a few infield options. Even if they don’t retain Asdrubal Cabrera beyond the current season, the Mets have both T.J. Rivera and Wilmer Flores as third base options in addition to Wright. I don’t know that spending on a top-of-the-market third baseman is going to be in the cards for a Mets club that perhaps still hopes to get something out of Wright next season and has at least two capable MLB alternatives already on the 40-man roster.

I’d currently peg Moustakas to land a five-year deal worth $90MM this offseason, and that’s a pretty heavy commitment given the current structure of the Mets’ roster. Moose’s on-base issues — he sports a career .305 OBP — may also give Mets GM Sandy Alderson pause.

While the Mets have a long-term need at the hot corner, I’d imagine they’ll be looking at other areas of need first in free agency. The bullpen, perhaps an outfielder (depending on Michael Conforto’s eventual diagnosis), some catching help and even some rotation stability to provide insurance in the wake of this year’s injuries all seem like more pressing needs.

What sort of contract is Carlos Gonzalez likely to get?  Something befitting his newfound mediocrity like 3/15?  Or a 1-year make-good deal for $5M or so?  How much do you think he lost by not agreeing to an extension last offseason? — Allan H.

I can’t see Gonzalez and agent Scott Boras taking multiple years at a low annual rate. A one-year deal is going to be their best bet heading into free agency. Recent examples of former star-caliber players that have had poor seasons and signed one-year pacts have shown that a one-year, $5MM deal may be beneath Gonzalez, though. Carlos Gomez signed a one-year, $11.5MM contract with the Rangers this offseason. A much older Matt Holliday got $13MM on a one-year deal (albeit coming off a better year at the plate).

I’d expect Gonzalez to sign for one year in the $10-14MM range in hopes of cashing in on a rebound season and looking for a much larger payday next winter. He’ll play next year at the age of 32 and would be 33 when seeking his larger contract if all pans out well, but that’s not too old for a corner outfielder to earn a solid contract.

I don’t know what the Rockies were offering him this spring, though I do recall chatting with Jeff Todd at the time and expressing surprise that the Rox were even interested. I’d have capped an offer to CarGo in the Josh Reddick range (four years, $52MM) at the time, and in retrospect, even that looks like it would’ve been a marked overpay.

Kevin Pillar is a great, Gold Glove type defender but has a mid 80’s OPS+. With Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Alford, Dwight Smith Jr., and Dalton Pompey ready for MLB time and Pompey and Alford easily center fielders, when does Pillar become expendable (ie our 4th OF) or get traded? — Johnny M.

For starters, I’m not sure where the notion that Pompey is ready for MLB time comes from. Pompey’s OPS in Triple-A last year barely scraped .700, and he’s been limited to 49 plate appearances this season due to injuries. He’s not pushing Pillar for a job anytime in the near future. Hernandez is likely to get a look as a potential everyday corner outfielder in September and next year, and I’d imagine that Alford will be presented with a similar opportunity.

Smith was left unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft twice and went undrafted both times. He’s put up solid but unremarkable numbers in Triple-A this season — .270/.344/.393 — and is less than two months from his 25th birthday. That doesn’t make him too “old” to be a future contributor by any means, but it’s important to note when gauging his overall ceiling. If any one of Hernandez, Pillar, Alford and Smith is going to be destined for fourth outfielder duties, I’d imagine that it’d be Smith.

Pillar’s bat isn’t great, but he’s one of the best defensive players on the planet. He’s been worth nine to 11 wins above replacement over the past three seasons (depending on your preferred version of the stat) based largely on the strength of that glove. Pillar shouldn’t go anywhere.

Is it too soon to abandon all hope on Yoan Moncada becoming the next Cano? How many perennial all stars struggle this mightily at the MLB level before becoming 3+ annual WAR players? Who is a comparable player with a similar history? — David C.

Moncada is barely 22 years old. It’s not uncommon at all for a player that young to come up and struggle immediately. Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 through his first 135 PAs as a rookie. Byron Buxton was labeled as a “bust” by many earlier this season when he opened the season 4-for-49 (and struggling in earlier MLB action), but he’s hitting .276/.336/.455 since April 25 and .333/.370/.657 since the All-Star break. There are dozens of other examples of players that came up and performed extremely poorly early on. If anything, early struggles should be the expectation as opposed to immediate stardom. (We are not worthy, Rhys Hoskins.)

For all of Moncada’s struggles, he’s still getting on base (.328 OBP, 15.5 percent walk rate) and showing some power (three homers, six doubles, a triple, .168 ISO). Strikeouts are probably always going to be an issue for him, but 140 plate appearances of struggles don’t prove he won’t eventually be a quality MLB regular. He won’t ever win a batting title with this level of swing-and-miss in his game, but there’s no reason to give up on him right now.

However, in terms of being “the next Robinson Cano,” it’s best to just get that notion out of your head right now. Moncada was likened to Cano because his swing looks similar and he’s going to play the same position, but Cano is an outstanding contact hitter and has only K’ed at a clip greater than 15 percent in one season. Moncada doesn’t need to be the “next Cano.” Have some patience, let him be himself, and enjoy having his talent.

Jeff Samardzija Clears Revocable Trade Waivers

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Giants righty Jeff Samardzija has cleared revocable trade waivers, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. That means that the hurler can be freely dealt over the next few days — though he does also possess no-trade rights against all but eight MLB teams.

Just because Samardzija can now theoretically be traded doesn’t mean that a deal is likely, of course. His contract pays him $18MM annually for three more seasons, which helps explain why no other organizations placed a claim. And he not only has veto powers over deals to any teams except for the Angels, Athletics, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Nationals, Red Sox, and Yankees, but has suggested he may be inclined to exercise those rights.

Beyond his contract, Samardzija’s trade appeal is also a matter of some debate. The 32-year-old has averaged an impressive 9.1 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9 over his 167 2/3 innings on the season, is throwing about as hard as ever, and he could top 200 frames for the fifth consecutive year. But he has also worked to a subpar 4.67 ERA.

Samardzija joins a long list of players that have reportedly cleared waivers, setting the stage for final negotiations with the deadline to add players with postseason eligibility looming at the end of the month. You can find them all at this link.

Mets Injury Updates: Cespedes, Wright, Conforto, Harvey

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The Mets have announced injury updates on a variety of notable players, as covered by James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter links).

Outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who recently hit the DL with a hamstring strain, is expected to require a six-week layoff and will therefore not make it back to the field this season. That’s not terribly surprising, as the veteran was said to have suffered a reasonably significant injury. He’ll surely focus on returning to health and finding a way to avoid further leg muscle problems in the 2018 season.

Meanwhile, the rehab assignment of third baseman David Wright has been halted after he again experienced shoulder pain. He’s set to be examined further tomorrow. The apparent setback makes it hard to imagine that Wright will be able to return to the majors this year. More broadly, it only continues to build upon the uncertainty about his future. New York owes the veteran $47MM over the next three seasons, though it can attempt to recoup 75% of his salary for any time during which he’s unable to play. But the Mets will also need to consider pursuing a replacement option at the hot corner for 2018 and beyond.

Perhaps the team’s most concerning open medical situation is that of young outfielder Michael Conforto, who had looked like a star before dislocating his shoulder and suffering a capsule tear in the joint. He has reportedly been weighing whether or not to undergo surgery, and is set for a second opinion on that decision. It’s not yet known what kind of outlook he faces, but the injury is plainly a serious one that will require plenty of care and a lengthy rehab process regardless of how it’s treated.

Finally, on the positive side, the Mets are set to welcome righty Matt Harvey back to the rotation on Friday. He has been out since the middle of June with shoulder problems that seemingly trace back to the thoracic outlet procedure he underwent last year. Beyond the health concerns, Harvey has struggled on the mound this year, with a 5.25 ERA over 70 1/3 innings. The Mets will surely hope that he can regain some positive momentum over the final month of the season.

Nicholas Castellanos Clears Revocable Waivers; Jose Iglesias, Michael Fulmer Pulled Back

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It’s already been reported this month that a number of expensive Tigers players — Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, Anibal Sanchez — have gone unclaimed on revocable trade waivers, but Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports adds more names to the list. Third baseman Nicholas Castellanos also went unclaimed on trade waivers, per Heyman, while right-hander Michael Fulmer and shortstop Jose Iglesias were claimed but did not change hands.

As Heyman notes, it registers as a modest surprise that Castellanos wasn’t claimed, though perhaps other clubs simply assumed that Detroit would pull the 25-year-old back off the wire. Castellanos has seen his offensive production drop in 2017, as he’s hitting just .244/.302/.440 — down from last year’s impressive .285/.331/.496.

However, there are reasons to be encouraged when looking at Castellanos’s batted-ball profile. His 44.9 percent hard-contact rate ranks sixth in baseball among qualified hitters, trailing only Corey Seager, Joey Gallo, Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Sano and Cody Bellinger. Additionally, Castellanos’s 24.8 percent line-drive rate is the game’s 11th-highest, and his 89.5 mph average exit velocity is 50th among hitters with at least 100 batted ball events (per Statcast).

Castellanos avoided arbitration for the first time this past offseason, agreeing to a one-year deal worth $3MM. He’ll receive a raise on that figure in 2018 and can be controlled via the arbitration process through the 2019 campaign. There’s been no indication that the Tigers are looking to trade Castellanos, but Detroit did acquire an MLB-ready third base option from the Cubs in the form of Jeimer Candelario, so it’s at least plausible that they could explore interest in Castellanos and look to entrust third base to the somewhat younger — and certainly cheaper and more controllable — option. (Despite the gap in MLB experience, Castellanos is only 18 months older than Candelario; the latter, though, won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least 2020.)

As for the others named in Heyman’s report, it’s not in any way surprising to see Fulmer taken back off waivers. Detroit reportedly received plenty of interest in him leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline, but the reigning American League Rookie of the Year is in the midst of an excellent sophomore campaign and is controllable through the 2022 season. Perhaps the Tigers will again listen to offers this winter and see if any interested party will blow them away with a can’t-refuse offer, but such a package couldn’t realistically come together in the 48-hour waiver claim window.

Iglesias, meanwhile, is a definite trade candidate to keep an eye this offseason. The 27-year-old doesn’t bring much to the table with his bat, but his glovework at shortstop is outstanding. Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at +10 in 2017, while Ultimate Zone Rating is largely in agreement at +9.0. Iglesias has batted .255/.298/.352 over the past two seasons and will be due one more raise on his $4.1MM salary in arbitration before hitting the open market as a free agent next winter. That short-term window of control could accelerate trade talks for him this winter, potentially clearing way for the Tigers to give a lengthy audition to 25-year-old Dixon Machado.

Rays Designate Taylor Featherston

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The Rays have designated infielder Taylor Featherston for assignment, optioned righty Chih-Wei Hu to Triple-A and activated right-hander Matt Andriese from the disabled list, tweets Bill Chastain of MLB.com.

Featherston, 27, was acquired in the middle of the year from the Phillies. He has seen limited time this year at the major league level, batting .179/.277/.359 in his 47 trips to the plate. He has continued to struggle at the plate in the upper minors, too, posting a cumulative .248/.329/.386 slash in his 280 plate appearances at Triple-A between the two organizations.

Though Andriese functioned as a starter earlier in the year, he’ll work from the pen at least initially, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Andriese, who turns 28 today, turned in a dozen quality outings (3.54 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9) earlier this season and ought to represent a notable addition to the staff down the stretch.

Knocking Down The Door: Anderson, Gonsalves, Lopez, Maples, Walker

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“Knocking Down the Door” is a regular feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

Brian Anderson, 3B, Miami Marlins (Triple-A New Orleans) | Marlins Depth Chart

Brian Anderson | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsSince a mid-July promotion to Triple-A New Orleans, the 24-year-old Anderson has been hitting like someone who knows he’s auditioning for a Major League job. In 29 Pacific Coast League games, the right-handed hitting third baseman is slashing .350/.420/.631 with eight home runs and 12 multi-hit games.

Dee Gordon and Martin Prado will presumably be on the trade block this offseason, and the Marlins wouldn’t pull the trigger on dealing either player without knowing if they have a potential in-house replacement (Prado could move to second base if Gordon is traded). If there is a Marlins prospect who is a candidate to step into a starting role in 2018, it would be Anderson, a former third-round draft pick. Calling him up in the near future and giving him 100+ plate appearances would give the Marlins a much better idea of how capable he is of becoming their starting third baseman next season.

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Stephen Gonsalves, SP, Minnesota Twins (Triple-A Rochester) | Twins Depth Chart

A shoulder injury that pushed Gonsalves’ season debut to mid-May could be a blessing in disguise for him and the Twins. While most starting pitching prospects are usually close to their innings limit in August and not expected to contribute much at the Major League level in September and beyond, Gonsalves is at 109 2/3 innings after his latest start. Considering that he threw 140 innings during a breakout 2016 in which he appeared very much on the fast track to the Major Leagues, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s pitching for the playoff-contending Twins late this season.

The 23-year-old lefty was recently promoted to Triple-A following a dominant 28-start stint in Double-A (161 2/3 IP, 2.28 ERA, 6.1 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 10.3 K/9) over the past two seasons. After posting back-to-back quality starts, Gonsalves struggled in his third Triple-A outing before bouncing back with another stellar effort over the weekend (6 IP, ER, 7 H, BB, 6 K). The Twins are currently in possession of a Wild Card berth with Bartolo Colon and Dillon Gee serving as their fourth and fifth starters, respectively. If they’re going to hold on, they might need to turn to their farm system one more time. Gonsalves could be the difference maker.

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Jose Lopez, SP, Cincinnati Reds (Double-A Pensacola) | Reds Depth Chart

The 23-year-old Lopez is only three months removed from pitching in the High-A Florida State League, but there are already several reasons to believe that he’s not far away from the Majors. After allowing 15 earned runs in his first 27 innings with Double-A Pensacola, the right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in the Minor Leagues. In his last 10 starts, he has a 1.24 ERA with 4.8 H/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9. He’s completed at least six innings and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs or five hits over that span.

During Lopez’s first crack at the upper minors, he’s shown an ability to make adjustments, miss bats, throw strikes and pitch deep into games—he has a 68.5% strike rate and hasn’t thrown more than 96 pitches in any of his 10 consecutive quality starts. Tyler Mahle, who made this list on May 1st and June 27th, became the 15th Reds’ pitcher to make a start in 2017 when he made his MLB debut yesterday. Lopez deserves to be the 16th.

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Dillon Maples, RP, Chicago Cubs (Triple-A Iowa) | Cubs Depth Chart 

The Cubs appeared to solidify what was already a deep and talented bullpen by acquiring lefty Justin Wilson at the trade deadline. Wilson has been mostly ineffective, however, while the team’s other key relievers have been unreliable, to put it kindly, over the past few weeks. It’s not quite a major area of concern at this point, considering the track record of the group, but it’s probably alarming enough to at least take a look at adding a reinforcement from the Minors, even one that began the season in High-A.

Maples’ rise didn’t begin immediately after the team converted him to a reliever a few years back. His numbers out of the ’pen were unimpressive in 46 appearances in the low minors from 2015-16, but something has apparently clicked in 2017. In 51 appearances across three levels, including his last 16 with Triple-A Iowa, the 25-year-old has a 2.74 ERA, 6.2 H/9 and 14.3 K/9. The walks are a concern (5.3 BB/9), but he’s only walked more than one batter in three of his combined 30 appearances in the upper minors. It’s also worth noting that Carl Edwards Jr. had a 6.0 BB/9 in 24 Triple-A appearances last season but went on to finish the year as one of the best relievers on the World Series champs.

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Christian Walker, 1B/LF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Triple-A Reno) | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Walker’s already difficult path to the Majors could not have taken a worse turn during the past offseason. With limited at-bats available in Baltimore behind Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo, the right-handed hitting first baseman was designated for assignment in February. The likelihood of a better opportunity lied ahead. But it never came. By the time the regular season started, he had been claimed on waivers by three different teams—Braves, Reds and Diamondbacks—that employed superstar first basemen who rarely miss a game. In late March, he was designated for assignment a fourth time, only to clear waivers and remain with the Diamondbacks.

To his credit, the 26-year-old did not let the limited opportunity and removal from the 40-man roster affect him at the plate. After putting up what would be slightly below-average numbers for a first baseman in Triple-A during parts of the previous three seasons, Walker has taken his game to another level in 2017. In 565 plate appearances, he’s been the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A version of Paul Goldschmidt, slashing .312/.384/.609 with 32 homers and 34 doubles. While the Pacific Coast League is more hitter-friendly than the International League, where Walker played previously, his improved walk and strikeout rates (145 BB, 406 K from ’14-16; 58 BB, 97 K in ’17) are indications that a better approach at the plate has helped lead to his success.

A September call-up is in the cards as the D-backs have gotten very little from their pinch-hitters in ’17 (.636 OPS), but they’d also do Walker a huge favor by either trading him in the offseason to a team where he has a chance to play or removing him from the 40-man roster—assuming he’s added in September—so he can opt for free agency.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Have Reportedly Expressed Strongest Interest In Giancarlo Stanton

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The Phillies, Cardinals and Rangers are among the teams that have reached out to the Marlins to express interest in slugger Giancarlo Stanton, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale cites a “high-ranking Marlins executive” in reporting that the Giants are the club that has expressed the most interest.

Miami has surged back to within striking distance of an NL Wild Card spot (largely due to Stanton’s recent heroics), so Stanton won’t be changing hands until this offseason, at the earliest. However, despite the recent offensive spike — Stanton is hitting .356/.462/.925 with 29 homers in his past 47 games — there are still numerous obstacles to a potential Stanton swap. Stanton’s 13-year contract affords him full no-trade protection, and Nightengale adds that not one prospective trade partner has expressed a willingness to absorb the remaining 10 years and $295MM on Stanton’s contract beyond the 2017 season.

Beyond that, the Giants’ minor league system is not very well regarded. Tyler Beede entered the year as the top pitching prospect in San Francisco’s minor league ranks, but he’s had a poor season in Triple-A this year (albeit in a very hitter friendly environment). He’s now likely to miss the final two months of the season with a groin injury. Fellow right-hander Joan Gregorio posted a 3.04 ERA in 74 Triple-A innings but carried some questionable secondary metrics and saw his season end in early July due to a PED suspension.

On paper, the Giants make a fair amount of sense as a trading partner for Stanton. San Francisco, as a team, ranks dead last in the Majors with 101 home runs this season. Stanton alone has nearly half that number, while the 29th-ranked Padres have out-homered the Giants by 25. That lack of pop is all the more glaring at a time when home runs are being hit at a record pace throughout the league.

More specifically, the Giants’ outfield has been the worst in baseball this year by measure of slugging percentage, OPS and fWAR. They rank 29th in on-base percentage, ISO and wRC+ as well. Incumbent right fielder Hunter Pence will turn 35 next April and has struggled to a career-worst .254/.306/.378 batting line through 431 plate appearances this season. Stanton would provide a thunderous jolt to any lineup he joined, but there’s very arguably no team that has a more acute need for his skill set than the Giants.

As for the Phillies, there may not be a team in baseball that can better handle his contract from a financial standpoint. Philadelphia’s only long-term commitment at present is to Odubel Herrera, and they have a history of lofty payrolls when contending. The Cardinals have been rumored to be in the market for an impact bat to place in the middle of their lineup since June, and the Rangers have little certainty in their outfield mix beyond 2017.

All of this, of course, is putting the cart before the horse. There’s no guarantee that the new Marlins ownership group will be in a rush to trade Stanton on the heels of the best season of his excellent young career. Doing so would come with massive public relations repercussions and could start the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter-led ownership group out on the wrong foot with a fan base that has long harbored a potent distrust of previous owner Jeffrey Loria. That’s especially true when considering the fact that the Marlins would likely have to pay Stanton’s contract down to the point where an interested partner felt it carried enough surplus value not only to acquire Stanton but also to part with well-regarded young talent.

The Marlins’ preference under new ownership, according to Nightengale, is to keep the payroll around $100MM, and Stanton’s salary will jump to $25MM next season. He’ll be paid $26MM in both 2019 and 2020, after which he can opt out of the remaining seven years of the deal. If he forgoes the opt-out, Stanton will be paid $29MM in 2021-22, $32MM in 2023-25, $29MM in 2026 and $25MM in 2027. Stanton’s contract also includes a $25MM option for the 2018 season, which comes with a $10MM buyout.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/28/17

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Here are Monday’s minor moves throughout the league…

  • The Mariners announced that they’ve once again selected the contract of right-hander Christian Bergman from Triple-A Tacoma, with fellow righty Dan Altavilla being optioned out to open a 25-man roster spot. This marks the third time that the Mariners have added the 29-year-old Bergman to the 40-man roster in 2017 alone. The former Rockies hurler has twice been designated for assignment as well, accepting outright assignments to Tacoma in both instances. Bergman has tossed 51 1/3 innings for the Mariners this season and averaged 5.8 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 with a 38 percent ground-ball rate. The resulting 4.91 ERA (5.62 FIP, 5.18 xFIP, 4.99 SIERA) isn’t especially inspiring, but Bergman adds some length to a Mariners pitching staff that has been ravaged by injuries in 2017. As for the 24-year-old Altavilla, he tossed three innings in yesterday’s game, so he wouldn’t have been available for a couple of days anyhow.

Top 5 AL MVP Candidates

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At the All-Star break in mid-July, the American League MVP looked as if it would belong to Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge at season’s end. The hulking rookie laid waste to opposing pitchers over the season’s initial three-plus months, slashing an astounding .329/.448/.691 with 30 home runs and an absurd .362 ISO in 366 plate appearances. He then completed a storybook first half with an awe-inspiring showing at the home run derby. But in Yankees terms, the strikeout-prone Judge has been more Maas than Ruth in the second half, having batted an unimpressive .176/.333/.345 with seven homers and a nearly 200-point ISO decline (.169) in 147 trips to the plate. Both Judge’s Jekyll-and-Hyde routine and sustained excellence from other first-half stars have combined to make the AL MVP race a compelling one as the 2017 season nears its conclusion. The front-runners are…

5.) Aaron Judge, RF, Yankees: As wretched as Judge’s production has been over the past month-plus, the Yankees and their fans certainly would have signed up for his cumulative output entering the season. An AL Rookie of the Year shoo-in, Judge leads his league in homers (37) and ranks second among qualified hitters in fWAR (5.8), wRC+ (160) and ISO (.300). So, while the second half has been one to forget for Judge, he’s still on the short list of premier players in the AL this year. However, barring a 180-degree turn in September, the negative impression he has left since mid-July is going to weigh on voters’ minds and all but take him out of the running to earn the MVP in his first full season.

4.) Corey Kluber, SP, Indians: Not only is the MVP a difficult award for pitchers to win, but Kluber only ranks 28th in the AL in starts (22). The right-hander is behind the 8-ball for multiple reasons, then, though it’s hard to argue he hasn’t been one of the elite players in the league this season. The 2014 Cy Young winner leads AL starters in rWAR (5.7) and places second in fWAR (5.3), thanks largely to a league-best 2.65 ERA. Kluber’s run prevention is mostly the product of incredible strikeout and walk rates (12.26 K/9 and 1.89 BB/9) that each rank second in the AL. He’s also averaging nearly seven innings per appearance (152 2/3 frames overall) and has produced 16 quality starts.

3.) Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox: If not for Sale, Kluber would be in the lead for another Cy Young and would be the AL pitcher with the most realistic chance of taking home the MVP this year. But Sale, formerly with the long-struggling White Sox, has carried his track record of superstardom to the contending Red Sox this year and should finally pick up some hardware for his efforts. While the left-handed Sale is second to Kluber in ERA (2.88) and rWAR (5.1) among AL starters, he has a massive fWAR lead (7.4, which also tops all hitters), has tossed nearly 26 more innings (178 1/3, which is first in the AL) and has the league’s No. 1 strikeout and walk rates (12.77 K/9, 1.77 BB/9). Kluber’s Indians teed off on Sale last week, but that three-frame, six-earned run outing was only the sixth time out of 26 that the Boston ace hasn’t recorded a quality start this season.

2.) Mike Trout, CF, Angels: Trout missed all of June and the first week of July with a thumb injury, which is the type of lengthy absence that would’ve been ruinous to nearly all players’ MVP hopes. But there’s nothing typical about the 26-year-old Trout, already one of the greatest performers in the history of the sport and someone who arguably deserved the MVP in each of his first five seasons. Trout “only” has two MVPs to his name, though, and odds are that the voters won’t be able to overlook the time he missed when choosing a winner this season. That’s unfortunate, because even though he’s tied for 86th among AL hitters in PAs (385), he trails just two position players in fWAR (5.6) and has a realistic chance to finish first in that category at season’s end. A magnificent .318/.452/.646 line, to go with 26 homers and 15 stolen bases, has kept Trout in MVP contention and helped give the Angels a shot at their second playoff berth of his career.

Jose Altuve1.) Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros: The diminutive Altuve is the anti-Judge in terms of size and in-season consistency. After hitting .347/.417/.551 in the first half, when the 5-foot-6, 165-pounder lagged a bit behind the 6-7, 275-pound Judge in the MVP race, Altuve has slashed an even better .370/.410/.578 since mid-July. Today’s Altuve has opposing pitchers longing for the early career version who packed little punch at the plate and was really only a threat because of his speed.

These days, not only does Altuve continue to terrorize hurlers when he gets on base (29 steals), but he’s obliterating his competition in the AL batting title race. Altuve has posted a .356 mark that’s 36 points above second place, and he leads qualified hitters in OBP (.415). The formerly powerless Altuve also slugged his 20th homer Sunday, contributing to the AL’s fourth-ranked slugging percentage (.565) and a more-than-respectable .209 ISO. All of that adds up to 6.0 fWAR and could lead to top AL honors for the five-time All-Star. Not bad for a once-overlooked Venezuelan prospect who joined the Astros on a $15K bonus 10 years ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Harvey, Fedde, Pirates

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Mets righty Matt Harvey is set to return from the disabled list Friday against the Astros, as Mike Puma of the New York Post notes. Harvey has been out since mid-June with a shoulder injury and hasn’t overwhelmed in his four rehab starts, but the Mets were enthused about his last outing, Puma writes. “When he threw in Double-A last time, the reports weren’t all that glowing,” says pitching coach Dan Warthen. “But [minor league pitching coordinator] Glenn Abbott was raving about this last one. Matt’s delivery was the same every pitch, and everything was coming out cleanly.” Harvey has seen most of his last two seasons derailed by injuries, but he’ll have a chance to salvage something from the 2017 season after pitching to a 5.25 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 70 1/3 innings before hitting the DL. Here’s more from the National League.

  • Nationals righty Erick Fedde threw with less velocity than usual on Sunday, pitching in the 89-91 MPH range after previously throwing around 94, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes. Fedde says he’s “not too worried about” the loss in velocity and attributes it to the approaching end of the season. Fedde, though, is still just under 100 innings for the season between the minors and the Majors after throwing 121 last year. Janes does note that Fedde has lately demonstrated a better-rounded repertoire than he showed in Spring Training, with a slower curveball and changeup to go along with his fastball and slider.
  • The Pirates’ rotation hasn’t been overwhelming this season, but they have had good depth they largely haven’t needed, as Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. The Bucs have only used six starters, and one of those, Tyler Glasnow, has a 1.99 ERA with Triple-A Indianapolis and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since early June. Steven Brault (1.94 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 52.2 GB%) has also fared well at Triple-A, with Drew Hutchison, Clay Holmes and Nick Kingham all also getting fairly good results. “It’s a good lesson in humility and patience,” says Brault. “You have to realize it’s not what you’re doing that’s wrong. Sometimes there’s just not a spot.” The Pirates control the rights to everyone in their current rotation for at least two more seasons beyond this one, so an offseason move or two could be a possibility, with Gerrit Cole perhaps being on the trading block. Kingham will be out of options next season, making his name one to watch as well. Of course, rotation depth charts have a way of changing quickly.

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