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Padres Re-Sign Craig Stammen

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The Padres have struck a two-year $4.5MM deal with righty Craig Stammen, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter links). He can earn $100K for ever five appearances between twenty and fifty, with another $150K apiece upon reaching fifty-five and sixty games, per Bob Nightengle of USA Today (via Twitter). The sides were said to be in “serious talks” earlier tonight, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter).

[RELATED: Updated Padres Depth Chart]

Stammen, 33, was among the solid relief arms we cited recently as still being available, but he has now joined quite a few of his bullpen brethren in reaching agreement on a multi-year deal. He’ll return to San Diego, where he enjoyed a nice bounceback season in 2017.

Long a multi-inning staple in the Nationals’ pen, Stammen was severely limited by arm troubles in 2015 and 2016. But he returned to form in a familiar role after earning his way onto the Padres roster after signing a minors pact.

In 80 1/3 innings over sixty appearances, Stammen worked to a 3.14 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and a 51.6% groundball rate — as well as a career-worst 1.34 HR/9 home run rate. With his typical ~92 mph fastball combo, paired mostly with a slider and curve, Stammen managed an 11.4% swinging-strike rate that sits comfortably within the range he carried during his prior years as a successful reliever.

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Steven Wright

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The Red Sox have avoided arbitration with right-hander Steven Wright, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Wright is slated to earn a $1.1MM salary in his first season of eligibility.

That payday slots in just below the $1.2MM that MLBTR had projected Wright to earn. The knuckler seems to be the odds-on favorite to earn the fifth starter’s role for the Red Sox, barring a surprise outside acquisition.

First, though, he’ll have to show he’s healthy and back in form. Wright’s 2017 season was cut short by knee issues that ultimately required surgery. He ended up taking the ball only five times on the year.

Quite different concerns arose earlier in the offseason when Wright was arrested following a domestic dispute (though there’s no indication it ever became physical). While the league is still investigating the incident, the legal matter has been “retired.”

Boston will hope that Wright can return to something approach the quality he showed in 2016, when a breakout first half earned him an All-Star bid. In 156 2/3 innings over 24 starts that year, Wright worked to a 3.33 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

Arbitration Breakdown: Khris Davis

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2018 projections are available right here. We have already covered Manny Machado’s arbitration breakdown and Mookie Betts’s arbitration breakdown. Full 2018 projected arbitration salaries for every player are also available here at MLBTR.

Khris Davis is projected for a healthy raise of $6.1 million up to an $11.1 million salary due to his impressive 43 home runs this past year. With 110 RBI, but only a .247 average, the main case for Davis getting a big raise is definitely those home runs.

Home runs are notoriously important for arbitration, and are by far the main driver (along with playing time) of raises according to my model. However, this past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Davis as similar to other players with the same number as home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs. My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower scoring years, and pitchers in low scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high scoring years.

Deflating Davis’ home run total by 26 percent would put him at 34 home runs, so it would still be a solid season. Chances are that a panel would view Davis as closer to a 40-homer guy (as would Davis’ reps and the A’s during negotiations in the shadow of how a panel would treat him), especially because the Oakland Coliseum deflates home runs, somewhat neutralizing the effect of the higher home run environment.

Only three guys entering their second years of arbitration have hit 40 home runs in the last five years: Two years ago, Josh Donaldson entered arbitration with a .297 average, along with 41 home runs and 123 RBI. His case seems superior to Davis’, mainly because of the fifty point batting average advantage. Thus, Donaldson’s $7.35 million raise seems like a likely ceiling for Khris Davis. Going back four years, we see homonym comparable Chris Davis getting a $7.05 million raise with 53 home runs and a .286 average, along with 138 RBIs; he seems like a ceiling as well. Nolan Arenado hit 41 home runs going into arbitration last year, but he also had a very high average (.294), so his $6.75 million raise seems like a ceiling too. So it is likely that the model is right to place Davis closer to $6 million than $7 million.

It is tough to find floors, but a couple potentials are Lucas Duda and Brandon Moss. Both hit in the .250s but with only 30 home runs, and got raises around $2.5 million. They are clearly well below where Davis should end up.

There is a large range of possibilities there. I think the model is probably as good a guess as any on this case, and I would look for Davis to land around $11 million. But I would probably think $10 million is more likely than $12 million based on the precedent from players like Arenado, Donaldson, and Chris Davis.

Padres Likely To Sign Right-Hander Kazuhisa Makita

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The Padres have emerged as the favorite to sign Japanese right-hander Kazuhisa Makita, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). The 33-year-old Makita, a submarine reliever, is on his way to San Diego for a physical, according to a report from Yahoo Japan.

At the time Shohei Ohtani was posted for MLB clubs, it was announced that Makita, too, would be posted for teams by year’s end, though details on his posting were never announced to the public. It’s not clear how many teams placed bids on Makita, but it’s clear that the Padres matched whatever release fee was set by the Seibu Lions and have agreed to a deal with the intriguing veteran right-hander.

Makita was the Pacific League Rookie of the Year back in 2011, and he owns an excellent 2.83 ERA in 921 1/3 career innings. After moving to the bullpen full time in 2016, he’s posted a minuscule 1.91 ERA in nearly 150 innings.  However, Makita also generates an abnormally low number of strikeouts for a pitcher with his success, averaging just five punchouts per nine innings over the course of his pro career in Japan. To his credit, he’s done a masterful job of limiting walks, issuing  just 19 unintentional free passes over his past 147 1/3 innings, albeit with 13 hit batters in that time as well.

That said, Makita would hardly be the only reliever in baseball who thrives on weak contact and heavy ground-ball rates despite an abundance of missed bats. Brad Ziegler, another sidearm specialist, has made a career out of that skill set and took home a hefty two-year contract last offseason as a result. Brandon Kintzler throws from a conventional arm angle but stands out as another reliever that has risen to relative prominence despite a lack of strikeouts.

Brewers To Sign Boone Logan

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Lefty reliever Boone Logan has agreed to a one-year deal with the Brewers, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter links). Logan will be guaranteed $2.5MM on the deal, which comes in the form of a $1.875MM base salary plus a $625K buyout on a $4.125MM option for the 2019 season. Logan can also earn up to $3.2MM worth of incentives in each year of the deal. He’s represented by Hub Sports Management.

[RELATED: Updated Brewers Depth Chart]

Milwaukee was light on left-handed bullpen help for much of the 2017 season and, at multiple points throughout the year, didn’t have a lefty in its bullpen at all. The 33-year-old Logan will give the Brew Crew an experienced option to help remedy that situation in 2018; it’s quite possible that he’ll be joined by young southpaw Josh Hader, who excelled in a relief role last year. Milwaukee could also return Hader to a starting role in ’18, though that could be dependent on what moves are yet to come for GM David Stearns and his staff.

Last season with the Indians, Logan hit the disabled list with a strained lat muscle in late July, and that injury ultimately proved to be season-ending in nature. He wound up tossing just 21 innings in 38 appearances as a lefty specialist in Cleveland, working to a 4.71 ERA. That said, Logan racked up a dozen strikeouts per nine against 3.9 walks per nine along with a 50 percent ground-ball rate in that time and has generally been a quality relief piece over the past eight seasons, with last year’s injury-shortened campaign and a dreadful 2014 season (6.84 ERA for the Rockies) standing out as notable exceptions.

Logan has long offered tantalizing skills, even if the results haven’t always quite matched. He has long boasted well-above-average swinging-strike rates — never higher than last year’s 18.5% rate — with a heater that sits around 94 mph and a heavily used, generally devastating slider. He has registered eleven or more strikeouts per nine in each of the past six campaigns. Of late, Logan has also generated quality groundball numbers as well (around 50% in each of the past two seasons).

Nevertheless, Logan owns a less-than-exciting 4.47 ERA in over 400 career MLB innings. No doubt that’s due in some part to the fact that he has never really figured out right-handed hitters. When pitching without the platoon advantage, Logan has coughed up a .286/.373/.472 cumulative batting line, with a K/BB ratio less than half that he has maintained against same-handed hitters.

Given the relatively meager commitment this contract represents, the Brewers will likely not feel much pressure to extend Logan beyond his area of greatest function — that is, entering to face tough lefties but not being asked to serve in a general setup capacity in high-leverage spots. Certainly, Logan won’t occupy much space on the organization’s payroll ledger, which still seems to offer quite a bit of room for additions for 2018 and beyond.

Yankees To Sign Jace Peterson

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The Yankees have agreed to a minors pact with infielder Jace Peterson, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). The 27-year-old will receive an invitation to MLB camp this spring and can earn at a $900K rate in the majors, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.

Peterson, 27, figures to have a chance at earning a role in the Yankees’ infield rotation, which remains in flux after the organization dealt away veterans Chase Headley and Starlin Castro earlier this winter. It’s still possible that the organization will add some significant pieces, but Peterson could contend for a reserve position regardless.

The Braves could have retained Peterson via arbitration at a projected rate of just $1.1MM. But Atlanta decided it was time to move on after a year in which he slashed just .215/.318/.317 over 215 plate appearances.

If things work out, the Yanks could yet control Peterson for two or more seasons through the arb process. Peterson has just 3.003 years of service, so if he spends a bit of time in the minors to open the year, it’s possible he’d still have three years of control ahead of him.

It’s worth remembering that Peterson was not long ago considered a quality prospect. And he did turn in a .254/.350/.366 output, with 52 walks against 69 strikeouts, over 408 plate appearances in 2016. Peterson has also shown wide platoon splits; while that doesn’t bode well for his potential to one day turn into a regular, it does suggest that he could be more useful to an organization that is able to pair him with other players.

AL East Notes: Bradley Jr., Yankees, Frazier, Orioles

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The Dodgers approached the Red Sox earlier this offseason about a trade that would’ve sent Yasiel Puig to Boston in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The Sox, valuing Bradley’s elite glove and extra year of control (three years to Puig’s two), “quickly” declined the offer, and talks between the two sides never went beyond that stage. As Speier points out, however, the scenario is instructive when gauging the Red Sox’ valuation of Bradley, who is coming off a relatively disappointing season at the plate. Puig’s .263/.346/.487 slash and 28 homers dwarfed Bradley’s .245/.323/.402 output and 17 homers, but the Sox (who’ve been searching all offseason for an offensive upgrade), seemingly gave little consideration to the notion. Bradley’s name has been oft-speculated upon in various trade scenarios by fans and pundits alike, but it doesn’t seem as though the Boston brass views him in that light; president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski has said at multiple points this winter that he’s in no rush to deal Bradley, Speier adds.

More out of the AL East…

  • The Yankees checked back in with the Orioles on Manny Machado this week, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, but the O’s have yet to receive an offer from any team that is close to what they’d hope to receive for Machado. The Yankees remain interested in Machado, though, believing that they have a legitimate chance to sign him long-term (even without an extension window being granted). The O’s reportedly want a pair of MLB-ready pitchers for Machado, though Heyman notes that third base prospect Miguel Andujar intrigues Baltimore to some degree. For now, Andujar is viewed as the Yankees’ starter at third base, though Heyman adds that the Yanks are exploring a number of avenues in the infield; in addition to Machado, they’ve shown interest in the Pirates’ Josh Harrison and are keeping tabs on the free-agent market in case Todd Frazier’s asking price drops to one year.
  • ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand writes that the Yankees would indeed “love” to bring Frazier back into the mix, but the organization has some reservations about his asking price (both in dollars and years). At present, the Yanks are poised to head into the season with Andujar at third base and one of Ronald Torreyes, Gleyber Torres or Tyler Wade at second base. “We are currently set up to go this route, unless something presents itself between now and whenever that gives us a change of position,” GM Brian Cashman tells Marchand. Certainly, that suggests that Cashman & Co. are yet open to additions, and Marchand calls it a “pretty good bet” that the Yankees will add an infielder to the mix before the offseason concludes.
  • “Too many people” are assuming that Chance Sisco is a lock to open the year as the Orioles’ starting catcher, reports MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. (I’m guilty as charged on that front, having referenced him as the likely starter on multiple occasions.) Per Kubatko, 26-year-old Austin Wynns has a “legitimate” chance to break camp with the team thanks largely to his defensive prowess. If that happens, then the O’s would seemingly take Wynns and Caleb Joseph north to open the year while giving Sisco additional development time in Triple-A Norfolk. The O’s are also still in the market for a veteran catcher, which could prove to be either a starting-caliber option or a backup to vie for a spot alongside Sisco and Wynns. Kubatko notes that some in the organization are intrigued by the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, though it’s difficult to imagine the O’s coming up with the type of package that’d beat the field for Realmuto when Miami has been targeting pitching prospects in other trades.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Last night, we kicked off the series with Manny Machado’s arbitration breakdown. Full 2018 projected arbitration salaries for every player are also available here at MLBTR.

Mookie Betts brings a rare combination of speed and power to his first year of arbitration eligibility, making his case a tricky one to project. The model places him at $8.2 million, which seems likely to be too high. The model tends to notice that having solid numbers in multiple statistical categories can aggregate up to a larger effect than the sum of its parts, but this can also lead to overly aggressive projections in some cases. With Betts entering arbitration with the rare combination of 78 career home runs and 80 stolen bases thus far in his young career, the arbitration model may exaggerate that combined effect.

Mookie Betts | Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports

The last time a player entered arbitration with both 60 homers and 60 steals in his career was 2010, when Matt Kemp did it. Hanley Ramirez also did in 2009. However, both signed multi-year deals without exchanging arbitration figures, so they may not be relevant comparables when examining Betts. For what it’s worth, they got $4MM and $5.55MM, respectively, in their first years as part of their multi-year deals. However, this is of limited value, especially given how stale these salaries are.

No one in the past five years with 70 career home runs going into arbitration has had more than 32 stolen bases, and no one in the past five years with 70 career stolen bases going into arbitration has had more than 59 home runs. The latter player was Drew Stubbs, but his .213 platform average and .241 career average, along with just 14 of those home runs coming in his platform season, combine to make him a poor comparable. His $2.83MM salary is well short of where Betts will end up.

If we want to look only at platform year stats, when Betts had 24 home runs and 26 stolen bases, Manny Machado seems like a plausible comparable. He had 35 homers and swiped 20 bases when entering arbitration for the first time two years ago, leading to a $5MM salary. However, he only had 10 stolen bases in his career prior to his platform season, so Betts could argue that he should top this. He also has 10 more career home runs than Machado had at the time and a higher career average (.292 versus .281). Of course, his platform year average of .264 is well short of Machado’s .286. I could see the Red Sox pushing down on his Betts’ salary by suggesting Machado as a comparable.

To get anywhere near the $8.2MM projection, Betts’ agents will need to hit on the fact that Betts’ 2016 performance nearly won him an MVP Award. Players with that type of hardware, such as Buster Posey ($8MM in 2013) and Ryan Howard ($10MM in 2008) stand atop the list of highest first year arbitration salaries. Betts did get 9 of 28 first place votes, with the other 19 and the award itself going to Mike Trout. Admittedly, however, I think such an argument would be a tough sell.

In all likelihood, Betts end up closer to Machado’s $5MM, but somewhat extra for the stronger career totals. I would guess the model falls a couple million short in this instance, as Betts ends up with a first-time arbitration salary around $6MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tyler Wilson Signs With KBO’s LG Twins

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Former Orioles righty Tyler Wilson has signed a one-year deal with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization, the team announced (via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). The Meister Sports Management client will take home $800K on a one-year deal, per Yoo.

The 28-year-old Wilson has spent parts of the past three seasons with the Orioles, totaling 145 1/3 innings but struggling to a 5.02 ERA with 4.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and an average fastball velocity of 89.9 mph in that time. Wilson showed promising ground-ball tendencies early in his MLB career and was adept at avoiding homers as well, but both of those trends rapidly went in the wrong direction with more exposure to big league hitters.

Those struggles led to a September DFA for Wilson in Baltimore, after which he was outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk. He elected to become a free agent at season’s end following his removal from the 40-man roster.

Wilson does carry a considerably more successful track record in Triple-A, where he’s logged a 3.99 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 across 302 innings in parts of four seasons. He’ll now earn considerably move overseas than he’d have taken home had he remained in North America on a minor league deal.

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