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Michael Conforto

Roberts: Andy Pages To Continue Seeing Regular Playing Time

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The Dodgers activated veteran outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the injured list yesterday and optioned James Outman to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Hernandez’s return won’t cut into the playing time of hot-hitting 24-year-old Andy Pages, it seems. Manager Dave Roberts told the Dodgers beat last night that Pages is “an everyday player” who’ll see only occasional off-days (including last night).

It would indeed be hard to cut into Pages’ playing time based on his performance of late. The former top prospect posted a league-average .248/.305/.407 slash (100 wRC+) as a rookie but has raked at a .280/.333/.494 clip with nine home runs in just 177 plate appearances in 2025. He and Hernandez have been far and away the team’s two most productive outfielders this year.

There are some reasons to take Pages’ breakout with a grain of salt. He hasn’t made substantial changes to an approach at the plate that still seems like it could use work. Pages fanned in 24.4% of his plate appearances as a rookie and walked at just a 6.5% clip. Both marks were worse than league average. In 2025, he’s slightly pared back the strikeouts (23.2%) but has seen his walk rate dip as well (5.6%). The league-average strikeout rate is 22%;  for walks, it’s 8.7%.

Pages is making more contact on pitches within the strike zone, jumping from a slightly below-average 84.8% last year to a healthier 88.2% in 2025. (League-average hovers between 85% and 85.5%.) However, he’s also chasing off the plate more frequently this season and swinging more often in general. Of the 165 qualified hitters in Major League Baseball, only 15 have swung more often than Pages, who’s offered at just under 54% of the pitches he sees. Hitters can certainly succeed with an aggressive approach — Pete Crow-Armstrong swings more often than any hitter in the National League — but Pages has well below-average quality of contact.

None of this is to say Pages can’t or won’t be a solid hitter — but continuing on at a pace that’s about 30% better than average seems unlikely without some refinement to his approach or an uptick in hard contact. Even if he’s “only” around 10% better than average at the plate for the rest of the season, he’s a clear everyday player, given his glovework in center field and his plus speed.

With Pages locked into regular or near-regular reps in center field and Hernandez back to his post in right field, the Dodgers will look to a combination of Michael Conforto and Tommy Edman in left field. Edman figures to be out there on days that Hyeseong Kim gets the nod at second base, although Kim has also played some center field and pushed Pages to left field. Broadly speaking, left field will be handled in more piecemeal fashion.

The 32-year-old Conforto, signed to a one-year deal worth $17MM this offseason, has struggled immensely thus far but still seems like he’ll get the lion’s share of playing time for now. Both that contract and some positive traits that run counter to his bleak .168/.304/.273 slash through 171 plate appearances should net him a bit more leash. Conforto is walking at a huge 13.5% clip, and he’s averaging 91 mph off the bat while putting 47% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or greater. He’s not expanding the zone all that often, and his contact rate within the zone is nearly 86%.

At some point, the results will need to be there for him to continue getting chances, but it’s understandable right now if the Dodgers are convinced better days are ahead. Conforto mashed at a .273/.329/.529 pace in a near identical playing time sample of 173 plate appearances following the 2024 trade deadline, which helped him secure that contract in the first place.

Dodgers Sign Michael Conforto

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December 10: The Dodgers officially announced Conforto’s signing today.

December 8: The Dodgers signed a left-handed hitting outfielder represented by Scott Boras tonight.  No, not that one.  Shortly before the Mets signed Juan Soto to a seismic contract, the Dodgers agreed to a deal with Michael Conforto, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Conforto’s deal with L.A. is a one-year pact worth $17MM, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reports the deal includes deferred money and an $8.5MM signing bonus.

Conforto, 32 in March, was selected by the Mets tenth overall in the 2014 draft and emerged as an impact bat for the club early in his career. In his first six seasons as a big leaguer, Conforto slashed an incredible .259/.358/.484 with a wRC+ of 128. Conforto made an All-Star appearance, slugged 118 homers in 632 games, and established himself as one of the best young offensive players in the NL.

Unfortunately, however, Conforto was dogged by shoulder issues early in his career that came to a head following a down 2021 season (104 wRC+). Conforto declined the Qualifying Offer and entered free agency in line for a solid payday, but required surgery during the 2021-22 lockout and ultimately did not sign a contract for the 2022 season while he recuperated.

Despite missing the entire 2022 season, Conforto inked a strong two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants, one of eight contracts by former GM Farhan Zaidi that included an opt-out.  After posting a league average 99 wRC+ in his first year with the Giants, Conforto chose not to opt out of the $18MM he was owed for 2024.

Conforto improved to a 112 wRC+ in 2024, including a 137 surge over the season’s final two months.  He showed a reverse platoon split, beating up on lefties more so than righties.  He also managed a 133 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, a place known to suppress offense.

Over the two years Conforto has been a Giant, Oracle Park has been the second-worst park in baseball for offense, ahead of only T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is right around league average as the 17th best park in the majors for offense.

While the Dodgers are surely hoping that Conforto unlocks something closer to the form he showed throughout his 20s in New York with them this year, even the 105 wRC+ he’s offered over the past three seasons would help to bolster the club’s lackluster outfield mix. Dodgers outfielders combined for a wRC+ of just 101 last year, a figure that is drastically improved by contributions from Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts. Hernandez is currently a free agent, however, and while Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers remain in on him even after signing Conforto, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be in a Dodgers uniform in 2025. With Betts ticketed for an infield role next season, that left the Dodgers with a projected outfield of Tommy Edman, James Outman, and Andy Pages for next season. Pages’s 100 wRC+ led that trio in 2024, and even a relatively mediocre season for Conforto would be a massive upgrade over Outman’s ghastly 54 wRC+ in 53 games last year.

With the addition of Conforto, RosterResource projects the Dodgers for a $326MM payroll in 2025 that perfectly matches their 2024 payroll, though that projection does not factor in deferred money. Regardless, that’s not expected to prevent president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his front office from spending this winter. Every indication has been that the Dodgers are willing and able to increase their payroll well beyond last year’s figure in order to land the right players, which is surely a relief for fans given the number of holes that remain on the roster. The Dodgers could use additional bullpen help even after reuniting with Blake Treinen earlier this evening, would benefit from either re-signing Hernandez or adding another bat to their lineup, and at minimum they appear likely to reunite with Clayton Kershaw to bolster their rotation even after landing Blake Snell last month.

Giants Notes: Snell, Yastrzemski, Conforto

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The Giants already extended one potential free agent by when they inked third baseman Matt Chapman to a six-year, $151MM contract that overrode the remaining two years and $34MM on his previous pact and negated the opt-out clause he was sure to exercise. Now, the recruiting pitch for another likely opt-out candidate is on. Giants righty Logan Webb appeared on Chris Rose’s podcast this week and suggested he’s doing everything he can to convince Blake Snell to re-sign on a longer-term deal and plant roots in the Bay Area (YouTube link, with Snell talk beginning at the 18:15 mark). Asked by Rose how he can help make sure Snell is back with the Giants in 2025, Webb replied:

I’m going to do everything [I can]. I don’t know how that’s all going to work out. I kind of hope they do what they did with Chappy — start conversations now, so we’re not bidding against other teams. I’m sure there’s teams in our division that are going to try hard to get him. Teams need good starting pitching, and he’s been the best in baseball since the beginning of July. It’s been awesome to watch, and he’s one of my favorite teammates. Hopefully we do everything we can to get him back.

He didn’t have a spring training, right? … He was kind of scuffling. I think he was doubting himself a little bit. And then, all of a sudden, look what happens when he gains some confidence. He’s back to Blake Snell. He’s a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Not many guys are two-time Cy Young Award winners, and you can see it when he throws. He’s throwing pellets. It’s unbelievable, as a lefty. I don’t know how anybody hits this. We’ve got to do everything we can to get him back. I do think he should be a big part of our future going forward.

Webb noted to Rose that he doesn’t plan to campaign to the front office in unprompted manner — though public-facing comments of this nature are in a way indirectly doing so — but would offer his opinions and any feedback if asked. It’s clear that Webb, a perennial Cy Young candidate himself, values Snell’s on-field contributions as well as the left-hander’s presence in the clubhouse.

The assertion that Snell has been baseball’s best arm dating back to early July is hard to argue, too. Snell’s no-hitter gained plenty of attention, but as I explored in a piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers a couple weeks ago, Snell has picked up his annual second-half momentum and looks to be back in Cy Young form. He obviously won’t win the award this season after a dismal start to the season that included him twice landing on the injured list, but since returning from his latest IL stint on July 9, Snell has a 1.45 ERA in 68 1/3 innings. He’s punched out a gaudy 36.5% of his opponents, offsetting a higher-than-average 10.5% walk rate, and allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 12 starts (the exception being a three-run, six-inning quality start on Aug. 7).

That run of dominance makes Snell’s opt-out an easy call — the alternative would be a $30MM player option for the 2025 season — but it’s not clear whether the front office has engaged with agent Scott Boras (who also reps Chapman). The Giants have been reluctant to make weighty long-term offers to free agent pitchers under the current front office regime. Webb’s five-year, $90MM extension is the largest contract the Giants have given to a pitcher under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi in both years and dollars. They haven’t signed a free agent for more than three years (Anthony DeSclafani’s $36MM deal) or for more than a total of $44MM (Carlos Rodon’s two-year deal). Snell should breeze past both marks.

Snell isn’t the only Giant whose future is uncertain, of course. The Giants have a wide slate of potential free agents but also some borderline arbitration calls. Outfielder Mike Yastrzemski spoke with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle about his own status. The 34-year-old is owed a raise on his $7.9MM salary this offseason and has turned in a fairly typical season by his standards, slashing .237/.310/.441 with 15 home runs and quality defense in right field.

Yastrzemski has been a fine value at his current salary, but an arb raise could push him north of $10MM. For a player in his mid-30s who’s unlikely to return to his standout 2019-20 form, that could be present a difficult decision as the non-tender deadline approaches in November — particularly since the Giants have a number of younger outfield options. Heliot Ramos has solidified himself in the 2025 outfield, and center fielder Jung Hoo Lee will be back next year after undergoing shoulder surgery that ended his season back in May. Grant McCray, 23, has looked a bit over his head in 85 plate appearances so far (.247 OBP, 41% strikeout rate), but he had a decent showing in Triple-A this year. He and/or Luis Matos could push into the picture next season.

Perhaps there’s a scenario where Yastrzemski is more of a part-time player, but his salary could be steep for that role. He made clear to Slusser he hopes to be back, however, even mentioning a willingness to sign a two-year deal that’d lower his contract’s average annual value. We don’t typically see players heading into their final arbitration season voice willingness to sign for only two years, but Yastrzemski is older than most players with five-plus years of service and also spoke of how he’s “grown so in love with” the organization, the stadium, the clubhouse and the city itself.

Slusser also adds that outfielder Michael Conforto, a free agent at season’s end, is hoping to return to San Francisco. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where both Yastrzemski and Conforto are back next year, however, as the Giants will want to earmark playing time for Ramos and Lee and surely want to leave the door open for at-bats for younger outfielders like McCray and Matos. One of Conforto or Yastrzemski, at most, seems feasible.

The 31-year-old Conforto has never regained his star-level form after undergoing shoulder surgery two years ago, but he’s popped 16 homers for the Giants this season while batting .229/.307/.430. He’s been about 7% better than average after weighting for his home park, by measure of wRC+, but he’s also sitting on the lowest full-season walk rate of his career (9.3%) and his highest strikeout rate (25%) since 2017.

Conforto likely won’t come close to the two-year, $36MM contract he received from the Giants two offseasons ago this time around. Familiarity with the player could prompt some interest in a reunion from the San Francisco front office, but he hasn’t been a handily above-average bat since 2020 at this point. A modest one- or two-year deal could be the outcome this offseason, and a Giants club hoping to establish more of an offensive identity moving forward might prefer to shuffle the lineup rather than largely maintain the status quo.

Latest On Giants’ Deadline Plans

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The Giants surprised many with tonight’s stunning trade that sent Jorge Soler and Luke Jackson to the Braves, yet the move doesn’t appear to be signalling a larger trend towards a selloff in the Bay Area.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via X) writes that “it doesn’t sound as if the Giants have plans to make any more significant subtractions, especially from the rotation.”  That latter specification implies that Blake Snell probably isn’t going to be on the move, despite increased speculation in the last few days that teams have been inquiring about the left-hander’s availability.

Whether the Giants make any noteworthy additions also still seems to be in question, as Slusser feels the team could bring in a new outfielder “if they add.”  The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that the Giants are looking for a good defender to play center field, and Heliot Ramos would then be moved into a corner outfield slot.  Star prospect Marco Luciano will be recalled for another crack at the big leagues, and Luciano will factor into the DH picture with Michael Conforto and (when healthy) Wilmer Flores now that Soler is gone.

Naturally plans could still change as things develop leading up to the deadline, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently suggested that the Giants feel they could move Conforto to a team that would take on the rest of the roughly $6MM remaining of his $18MM salary.  It could be that the Soler trade already provides enough financial relief that the Giants wouldn’t feel compelled to move Conforto as well, though if payroll isn’t a primary concern, the Giants could be freeing up some money to be flexible enough for a larger splash if an pricier option becomes available.

This type of measured approach to the trade deadline isn’t likely to please the San Francisco fanbase, yet it speaks to the team’s uncertain position in the standings.  The Giants are 53-55 with a -16 run differential, but a four-game winning streak has brought them within four games of an NL wild card berth.  With a number of lesser opponents (i.e. the A’s, White Sox, Marlins) all coming up on the schedule in the next five weeks, the ingredients might be there for the Giants to make a run…..or the front office could see the hill as too tall to climb.

In regards to Snell in particular, Baggarly says San Francisco would “have to be overwhelmed” to trade the southpaw, and the team is “not expecting something to materialize” between now and 5pm CT on Tuesday.  For comparison’s sake, Baggarly said the Giants would want more for Snell than the Blue Jays got from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade earlier tonight. 

The New York Post’s Jon Heyman also reported that the Giants weren’t willing to include any money in a Snell trade to cover the significant remaining cost of his contract.  The two-year, $62MM deal Snell signed last offseason breaks down as a $17MM signing bonus that has already been paid, a $15MM salary for 2024 (so roughly $5MM remains owed), and then $30MM in 2025.  While Snell can opt out of that second year and return to free agency, rival teams are understandably wary about taking on that possible hefty cost, considering that Snell has a checkered injury history.

An opt-out didn’t appear to on the cards whatsoever for Snell just a few weeks ago, yet he has revived his trade value with some exceptional pitching since his return from the injured list.  Snell has an 0.75 ERA and a 35.7% strikeout rate over 24 innings in his last four starts, suddenly once again looking like the dominant ace who won the NL Cy Young Award last year.

The Cubs, Orioles, Padres, and Yankees are all known to have expressed some level of interest about Snell, and SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets have also “checked in” with the Giants, with “no traction” yet on any possible deal.  Martino implies that this might have been something of a due diligence call from the Mets, as naturally any contender would want to at least touch base with San Francisco about what it would take to pry Snell away.

Mets, Giants Have Discussed Michael Conforto

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The Mets have been in contact with the Giants regarding Michael Conforto, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (X link). The Post’s Jon Heyman wrote last night that the Mets were looking into the outfield market and preferred to add a left-handed hitter.

There aren’t many obvious options on that front. The Marlins are likely to deal center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., but a trade with the Mets could be complicated by the division factor. The Nationals probably wouldn’t have any qualms about dealing impending free agent Jesse Winker within the NL East. Beyond that duo, the Giants might have the top pair of trade candidates among lefty-hitting outfielders in Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski.

Of course, the Mets are plenty familiar with Conforto. A former 10th overall pick, he hit .255/.356/.468 through parts of seven seasons with the team. Conforto represented the Mets in the 2017 All-Star Game and was one of the better hitters in the league between 2017-20. His production dipped in his ’21 platform season. The Mets allowed him to walk in free agency after he declined a qualifying offer. Conforto injured his shoulder while working out that offseason. He underwent surgery and missed the entire 2022 campaign. He landed in San Francisco on a two-year, $36MM free agent pact the next winter.

Conforto hasn’t recaptured his peak offensive form coming back from the injury. He has been an unexceptional hitter over his season and a half in the Bay Area. He turned in a .239/.334/.384 slash through 470 plate appearances a year ago. It’s a similar story in 2024. Conforto carries a .226/.298/.415 batting line through 80 contests. His 9% walk rate is his lowest in any full season of his career. He’s striking out at a customary 24.1% clip.

The 31-year-old has had a slight rebound in his hard contact rate and power production. He’s slugging above .400 for the first time in four years and has 10 homers across 299 plate appearances — the equivalent of a half-season of action. That uptick in power has come with a career-low OBP, however. Conforto’s overall offense is again almost exactly league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s on par with what he produced in his final season in Queens and his first year in San Francisco.

Conforto is playing this year on an $18MM salary, nearly $6.3MM of which is still to be paid out. It’s not likely that other teams would take the full freight. Not only has Conforto’s overall production been middling, he has been in a funk of late. He carried a .280/.331/.490 slash into June but owns a .165/.261/.331 line over his most recent 145 plate appearances.

The Giants may need to kick in money and accept a minimal prospect return if they’re going to move him in the next few days. The Mets are paying a 110% fee on any salary they take. Absorbing all of Conforto’s remaining money would cost them upwards of $13MM including luxury taxes. That’s probably not appealing even to an organization that has leveraged its financial might to take on a couple struggling relievers, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, this month.

San Francisco has dropped six of its last 10 and fallen six games below .500. They’re 5.5 games back of the Padres for the last Wild Card spot with five additional teams to pass in the standings. Their mediocre play coming out of the All-Star Break seems to have them positioned as sellers.

Blake Snell Among Giants Drawing Trade Interest

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8:46pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that five teams have shown some amount of interest in Snell.

10:22 am: The Giants have hovered around the National League Wild Card race for most of the year but slipped back recently, which could lead to them deciding to sell prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic took a look at some possible trade candidates, reporting that left-hander Blake Snell is drawing significant trade interest. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic listed Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores as bats that are available around the league. Baggarly also mentions right-hander Alex Cobb and lefty Taylor Rogers as candidates to be moved in the coming days.

San Francisco is currently 49-55, which only puts them 5.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot, but they would have to pull away from the Cubs and then pass the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Padres in order to get into postseason position. They’re not totally buried but the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just an 11.5% shot of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 5.6%. With that kind of Hail Mary window, it’s logical that the Giants would look into shifting their priorities to optimizing next year’s team, which would mean making some players available now.

It’s unsurprising that Snell would draw significant trade interest, though his trade candidacy would have complications. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball when at his best, which is why he has two Cy Young awards on his mantel. That includes getting last year’s National League trophy when he posted a 2.25 earned run average over 32 starts with the Padres.

But 2024 has been far less smooth. Despite his excellent 2023 campaign, he lingered in free agency for a long time and didn’t sign with the Giants until the middle of March. After a quick ramp-up, he made three rough starts before landing on the injured list with a left adductor strain. He returned from the IL and had three more bad outings before returning to the IL in early June with a left groin strain. At that time, he had an ERA of 9.51 in those six starts.

He has since returned and been in much better form. He shut out the Blue Jays and then the Twins before allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers. Those three better starts have reduced his ERA to 5.83 for the year.

Despite the inconsistent results this year, some clubs would surely be willing to bank on his track record and recent return to form. However, his contract adds another layer of complication. He signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end.

Trading players with such provisions is usually a tricky proposition, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers and it’s a situation that Giant fans are likely familiar with from the Carlos Rodón saga from a few years ago. Despite having a dominant season for a middling Giants club, Rodón wasn’t moved at the deadline as he had an upcoming opt-out that seemed to ward off potential buyers.

Players in such situations are mostly downside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will leave, making them a rental in a best-case scenario. If they perform poorly or get hurt, they will stick around and keep their notable salary on the books. Surrendering notable prospects for such an arrangement is often an unattractive proposition and the selling club might not want to give up a star player for an uninspiring return.

Snell’s contract consists of a $15MM salary this year and a $17MM signing bonus that Baggarly notes is not transferable to a trade partner. There’s a $30MM player option for 2025 that Snell could trigger if he finishes the season poorly or is injured, but he could also opt-out if he finishes strong. Those complications might soften the offers but demand for pitching is expected to outstrip supply, especially in terms of front-of-the-rotation type arms, so perhaps the Giants will get some intriguing calls.

It makes sense that the Giants would listen to offers to see if they could get that contract off their books while also recouping some younger talent. Even without Snell, next year’s rotation could consist of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, with Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn perhaps back in the mix if their health allows. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has reached Triple-A while the club also has Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng on the 40-man roster.

Sticking with the rotation, Cobb is a more straightforward trade candidate in the sense that he’s an impending free agent. Even though he underwent hip surgery in October, the Giants picked up his $10MM option for this year in the hopes that he wouldn’t miss that much time. Unfortunately, his return has been slowed by some elbow and shoulder issues and still hasn’t pitched in the majors this season.

He has been rehabbing of late and tossed five shutout innings at the Triple-A level on Saturday. Baggarly notes that he could be reinstated and pitch for the Giants on Sunday, which would essentially be a pre-deadline showcase for interested clubs. The injury issues from this year will likely give clubs some hesitation but Cobb is an established veteran with a 3.85 ERA over 230 career starts. As recently as last year, he was able to toss 151 1/3 innings with a 3.87 ERA.

As for the bats, Rosenthal mentioned Flores as a trade candidate on Wednesday but the Giants put him on the IL the next day due to right knee tendonitis. Players on the IL can still be traded but he is also having a down season, hitting .206/.277/.318 for a wRC+ of 71. He’s making $6.5MM this year and then has a dual player/team option for 2025. He first has to decide on a $3.5MM player option and then, if he declines, the team would have an $8.5MM option available. Given his down season, he might be inclined to pick up his end of the deal rather than going to free agency.

Conforto is a straightforward trade candidate since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a two-year, $36MM deal going into 2023 and then declined to opt out after hitting a league-average .239/.334/.384 last year. He started out well this year but has tapered off. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 when he landed on the IL on May 12 due to a right hamstring strain. Since coming off the IL in early June, he’s hitting .165/.262/.331.

Yastrzemski can be retained via arbitration through next year, but there’s logic in considering trades now. He’ll turn 34 next month and is making $7.9MM, meaning he could be looking for an eight-figure salary in arbitration next year. He’s been a consistently solid player during his career on both sides of the ball. He has hit .241/.326/.458 for a wRC+ of 114 while racking up 35 Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average. Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.6 wins above replacement in every previous season of his career and is currently at 1.3 fWAR this year.

Even without Conforto and Yastrzemski, the Giants could go into next year with an outfield mix consisting of Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos with guys like Derek Hill, Tyler Fitzgerald and Wade Meckler also in the mix.

As for Rogers, he’s in the second season of a three-year, $33MM deal he signed with the Giants. He has continued to pitch well and the Giants could keep him for next year, but moving now might also make sense. He has a 2.27 ERA this year but that’s largely propped up by an unsustainable 84.1% strand rate. His 25.6% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017 and he’ll be turning 34 this winter.

Teams generally sign free agents looking for most production in the beginning of the deal, with the later years a pill they swallow as the price of doing business. If there’s a way for them to wriggle out of the last season of the Rogers pact, they might consider taking it. Such a move could potentially free up some cash, bring back some young talent or both. It would create a hole in next year’s bullpen but relievers are often viewed as volatile and fairly replaceable.

All together, the Giants make for an interesting late entry into a market that has been perceived to have a lack of sellers. As laid out by Baggarly, the club could try to duck under the competitive balance tax in the days to come but it would be difficult to do. RosterResource estimates they are currently just above $253MM, more than $16MM above the $237MM base threshold. They would effectively have to find takers for all the money owed to Snell, Rogers, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Cobb to dip under and therefore might be focused on prospect capital between now and the July 30 deadline.

Giants Place Blake Snell On Injured List

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June 3: As expected, the Giants announced today that Snell has been placed on the 15-day IL with a left groin strain. Outfielder Michael Conforto was reinstated from the IL as the corresponding move.

June 2: Blake Snell’s nightmare of a season looks to be taking him back to the injured list, as the Giants left-hander had to leave today’s start against the Yankees due to left groin tightness.  Snell had thrown 4 2/3 innings and the first two pitches of an at-bat against Alex Verdugo before he had to depart after a visit from the team trainer.  Speaking with NBC Sports Bay Area and other media post-game, Giants manager Bob Melvin indicated Snell will almost surely be placed back on the 15-day IL, and a fuller timeline might be known when Snell undergoes an MRI tomorrow.

A similar injury led to Snell’s initial IL placement back on April 23, as he ended up missing almost exactly a month of action due to a left adductor strain.  Today marked Snell’s third start back in action, and he again didn’t have much success, finishing with three earned runs over his 4 2/3 frames.

The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner now has a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings since signing a two-year, $62MM free agent deal with San Francisco on March 19.  Since Snell didn’t sign until just a week prior to Opening Day, his preseason work consisted of extended Spring Training and simulated games, and the rust has been pretty evident since he made his Giants debut on April 8.  It isn’t a stretch to say that these twin groin/adductor injuries might also stem from Snell not being entirely ramped up for the start of his season, though he did look great in his rehab outings while recovering from his previous injury.

Assuming the MRI doesn’t reveal anything more serious, it would seem like Snell is in for at least another month on the sidelines, as both he and the Giants surely want to ensure that this injury is fully dealt with before Snell restarts another round of throwing sessions and minor league rehab starts.  Given the calendar, it seems possible that Snell could potentially be out until after the All-Star break, if the Giants wanted to give more time if he wasn’t quite ready by the beginning of July.

Missing more time also has broader implications on Snell’s future in San Francisco, as his contract carries an opt-out clause.  The two-year deal was designed to allow Snell to potentially re-enter the market quickly after another strong season, and this time land the more lucrative longer-term pact that eluded him this past winter.  However, even if he returns in July in his past form and pitches like an ace the rest of the way, the lackluster first three months might’ve already done enough to reinforce whatever doubts teams have about Snell’s ability to stay healthy.  Remaining with the Giants and banking another $30MM in 2025 isn’t exactly an ugly outcome for Snell, but since he’ll be 33 on Opening Day 2026, time is running out for Snell to truly maximize his earning potential.

Only five National League teams have winning records, so the 29-31 Giants still hold the third wild card slot despite all their struggles.  The rotation has been an obvious concern, as Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks, and Kyle Harrison have been San Francisco’s only reliable starters — Snell, Keaton Winn, and Mason Black have gotten the majority of other starts and none have pitched well.  Winn has also been out of action due to a forearm strain, though he was set for a minor league rehab game on Tuesday.

Since the Giants have an off-days both on Thursday and on June 13, they could keep Winn on his planned rehab schedule because the team wouldn’t need a fifth starter for close to three weeks.  Black could also be recalled from Triple-A, and the Giants are still probably at least six weeks away from having Robbie Ray or Alex Cobb as viable candidates to return from the 60-day IL.  Ray will pitch in an Arizona Complex League game this week as he continues to rehab his way back from Tommy John surgery, and Cobb has started throwing again after shoulder discomfort led to a shutdown in mid-May.

Giants Place Michael Conforto On 10-Day Injured List

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The Giants announced this afternoon that outfielder Michael Conforto has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right hamstring strain. Outfielder Luis Matos was recalled from Triple-A in a corresponding move.

Conforto’s injury first occurred during last night’s game against the Reds, which saw him pulled during the fourth inning due to what the club termed at the time right hamstring tightness (as noted by Maria Guardardo of MLB.com). John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle noted that manager Bob Melvin told reporters after the game that the injury was a hamstring strain, albeit one that “feels mild.” Melvin added that Conforto was scheduled to undergo an MRI today and that more details would be available then. The Giants have not yet commented on the results of that MRI, but Conforto’s placement on the IL guarantees that he’ll be out for at least ten days.

The loss of Conforto, 31, is a damaging one for the Giants. The veteran outfielder signed with the club on a two-year deal on the heels of a lost 2022 season where he did not play due to injury and while he posted league average results with San Francisco last year, he’s been one of their most productive bats this season with a strong .280/.331/.490 slash line that’s good for a wRC+ of 136. That production has been a rare bright spot on a Giants team that entered today with an 18-23 record in part thanks to a lackluster offense that has posted a collective wRC+ of just 97 this season, good for 19th in the majors. The offense’s struggles have been further compounded by injuries in recent days, as Conforto joins Tom Murphy, Jorge Soler, Austin Slater, and Nick Ahmed in departing for the injured list in the past week alone.

Replacing Conforto on the club’s active roster is Matos, a 22-year-old who was a consensus top-100 prospect back in 2022. He made his MLB debut last year but struggled in 76 games at the big league level, hitting a paltry .250/.319/.342 in 253 trips to the plate en route to a wRC+ of just 87. Despite those struggles, however, it’s at least feasible that Matos could help contribute to the club’s offense given his solid .310/.408/.417 slash line against southpaws last season and a contact-oriented bat that allowed him to post a strikeout rate of just 13% last year in the majors. Aside from Matos, Conforto’s injury could create more playing time for the likes of Blake Sabol and Wilmer Flores in the coming days.

Michael Conforto Exercises Player Option With Giants

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Outfielder Michael Conforto has exercised his player option and will stay with the Giants for 2024, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Conforto could have opted out and become a free agent but will instead stay in San Francisco and make a salary of $18MM next year.

Conforto, 31 in June, signed a two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants coming into the 2023 season. He was allowed to opt out of the deal after the first season, so long as he took at least 350 trips to the plate in that initial campaign. He easily eclipsed that figure, getting to 470 PAs, but the quality of his work was only so-so. He hit 15 home runs on the year, well below his 30-per-year run from a few years ago. His .239/.334/.384 line amounted to a wRC+ of 100, indicating he was exactly league average.

The decision on whether or not to opt out was arguably borderline, despite the tepid season. This winter’s free agent market is considered to be light in terms of impact bats, which could have perhaps given Conforto a boost. He also demonstrated his health after missing the entire 2022 season, which was somewhat encouraging on its own. But on the other hand, there likely would not have been tons of momentum behind him if he decided to return to free agency.

Conforto had an incredibly strong run from 2017 to 2020, hitting 97 home runs in that time and slashing .265/.369/.495 for a wRC+ of 133. But his batting line dipped to .232/.344/.384 in 2021, with just 14 homers. That was an ill-timed down year, as it preceded Conforto’s free agency. He turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets in search of a more significant deal but ended up injuring his shoulder during that winter’s lockout. He eventually required surgery and missed the entire 2022 campaign.

The Giants took a shot on a post-surgery bounceback, though it didn’t quite work out. If he had returned to free agency, he would have had a hard time marketing himself. On the one hand, he has some very strong past results and is coming off a healthy campaign. But two of the past three years have featured fairly tepid offense, with a totally lost year in between. The shortened 2020 season obviously wasn’t his fault, but the fact remains that Conforto hasn’t been both healthy and clearly above average at the plate for a full season since 2019. Since he’s not considered an especially strong defender, that declining offense obviously hurts his earning power.

Conforto now slots into the outfield depth chart for the 2024 Giants, alongside Luis Matos, Mike Yastrzemski, Mitch Haniger and Austin Slater, with LaMonte Wade Jr., Heliot Ramos and Blake Sabol perhaps in the mix as well. The Giants are expected to be aggressive this winter, likely pursuing marquee free agents after missing out on players like Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter. They have been speculatively tied to outfielders like Cody Bellinger and successfully pursuing such a player would further crowd this picture.

That could perhaps lead to Conforto or someone else being shopped around in trades. Conforto, Yastrzemski, Wade and Sabol all hit from the left side, as does Bellinger. For a platoon-loving club like the Giants, perhaps that’s too many lefties for one outfield, but it also depends on how the dominos fall this winter. Clubs would likely have some level of interest in taking a flier on Conforto given the market conditions, but the valuations from them might fluctuate based on whether they believe he’s capable of returning to his pre-2021 form.

For the Giants, keeping Conforto’s salary on the books means they are projected to have a payroll of $147MM, per Roster Resource. They have had payrolls around $200MM many times in the past and their competitive balance tax number is currently pegged at $170MM. The base threshold is going to be $237MM in 2024, giving them plenty of room before the luxury tax would become a concern.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

NL West Notes: Conforto, Manaea, Sewald, Dodgers

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Michael Conforto and Sean Manaea can each opt out of the final year of their contracts with the Giants, with Conforto owed $18MM in 2024 and Manaea $12.5MM.  Neither player has yet decided whether or not they’ll opt out, with Conforto telling NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic that “I think the good thing is it’ll be a hard decision, but I don’t think there’s a bad outcome really.  It will be tough, just because I’m very close with these guys and the uncertainty there could give you a little bit of anxiety, but again, there are a lot of conversations that have to happen before I’m even close to knowing what I want to do.”

Conforto hit .239/.334/.384 over 470 plate appearances in a season shortened by a hamstring injury, while Manaea posted a 4.44 ERA over 117 2/3 innings while working as a starter, long reliever, and bulk pitcher behind an opener.  Manaea might be the likelier of the two to find a larger deal on the open market, as Pavlovic notes that a multi-year agreement could be possible since teams are forever in need of pitching.  Conforto could remain with the Giants and hope for a better platform year before re-entering the market next winter, though he’d be rejoining an outfield/DH picture that already looks crowded, and the Giants might still be making more moves to the outfield to add both athleticism and hitting pop.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • The Diamondbacks’ acquisition of Paul Sewald has proven to be one of the trade deadline’s most impactful moves, as The Arizona Republic’s Theo Mackie writes that the Snakes’ once-unsteady bullpen has turned into a strength.  From August 19 until the end of the regular season, Arizona relievers combined for a 2.94 ERA, with Sewald himself delivering a 2.84 ERA over 12 2/3 innings in that stretch, closing out nine of 10 save chances.  As noted by Mackie and D’Backs GM Mike Hazen, establishing Sewald as the closer allowed the team to stick to a pretty set formula for their bullpen usage, and this routine has helped the Diamondbacks both reach the playoffs and advance to the NLCS.
  • The Dodgers’ roster is broken down by J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, with an eye towards whether or not several players could be back in Los Angeles in 2024.  Among the free agents, Hoornstra likes the chances of a reunion with Enrique Hernandez, as the utilityman’s multi-positional ability could help add depth if a DH-only player (i.e. Shohei Ohtani) were to join the roster.  On the other hand, David Peralta is basically limited to just left field and only against right-handed pitching, so it seems like L.A. might prefer internal options.  There also seems to be a chance the Dodgers will re-sign Jason Heyward, which could make Peralta further “redundant” since Heyward is also a left-handed hitter and a more versatile outfielder.
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