The Royals’ 2025 season has not gone as they surely hoped it would after they surprised the baseball world with a playoff berth in 2024 and invested heavily into the team over the offseason. While they entered June over .500, a brutal 8-18 swoon last month left the team very abruptly buried in the AL playoff picture. Their 40-47 record leaves them with a 14-game deficit in the AL Central that already seems all but impossible to overcome, and even their Wild Card positioning leaves them 5.5 games back of a playoff spot. A rotator cuff strain sidelined Cole Ragans last month, and the loss of the club’s lefty ace will make it even harder for them to turn things around.
All of that has left the Royals looking like a potential deadline seller. A closer look at the club’s roster reveals very few short-term assets who would bring back a significant haul on the trade market, however. Hunter Harvey is injured, while Cavan Biggio and Mark Canha have both been well below average hitters this year. That leaves right-hander Seth Lugo as the only player on the roster who can depart for free agency this winter who could bring back a notable return for the Royals.
There’s few contenders who wouldn’t benefit from adding Lugo to their rotation. The right-hander was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award last year with a dominant season, and he’s kept the good times rolling in 2025 with a sparkling 2.74 ERA in 15 starts. That’s the sort of front-of-the-rotation, surefire playoff starter that contenders dream of adding to their rotation mix, at least on paper. If Lugo could bring back an exciting return for the Royals, particularly an MLB-ready return, then it could make sense to sell the righty in order to maximize the 2026-30 seasons, after which point superstar Bobby Witt Jr. will have his first opportunity to opt-out of his extension and test free agency.
As clearcut as the argument for dealing Lugo may sound, however, there are real reasons to think the Royals may hesitate. For one thing, a monster return for Lugo is hardly guaranteed. As strong as his raw run prevention numbers have been this year, his peripherals tell a different story. The veteran’s strikeout rate has ticked slightly downward, his walk rate has jumped up to 8.0% after sitting at 5.6% last year, and his otherworldly ability to keep the ball in the park last year appears to have been a single-season mirage. With a 4.18 FIP and 4.10 SIERA, it’s possible rival clubs will value Lugo as more of a mid-rotation starter than a recent Cy Young candidate.
His value is further decreased by the $15MM player option he holds for the 2026 season. That’s a figure Lugo would certainly be able to beat in free agency if healthy, meaning that he’s very likely to opt out unless he suffers an injury, at which point the acquiring club would be on the hook for the full price and likely get minimal production. Similar contractual situations have caused issues in trade talks in the past. Both the Cubs and Yankees have entertained trade offers on Marcus Stroman in recent years but found difficulties getting much of a market for his services due to “poison pill” contract options, and even future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer had to waive his ability to opt out of the 2024 campaign for the Rangers to be willing to acquire him from the Mets during the summer of 2023. It’s not at all difficult to believe interested teams could have similar reservations regarding Lugo.
If the return for Lugo isn’t robust, it’s not hard to imagine the Royals just keeping the veteran. While Witt is young and under long-term control, other pieces of the club’s core like Michael Wacha, Carlos Estevez, and Salvador Perez aren’t exactly getting any younger. Even younger players like Jonathan India and Kris Bubic aren’t far from the end of their team control windows, and that could leave the Royals motivated to try to make the 2026 season count. Keeping Lugo in the fold would help that goal, and while it’s typically unlikely for a small market club to keep a star player in free agency, that may not be the case in this instance.
With Lugo eligible for the Qualifying Offer this winter, it’s not impossible to imagine him either sticking around on that one-year pact if it’s offered to him or the sides using it as a jumping off point to work out an extension. The Royals typically wouldn’t be expected to have the sort of financial muscle needed to retain a pitcher of Lugo’s caliber, but the veteran turns 36 this November and would likely be limited to short-term offers in free agency even if he isn’t attached to the Qualifying Offer. Should Kansas City extend him the QO, it could further depress his ability to land a big contract. If the Royals like their odds of keeping Lugo around after this year, it would be understandable if they decided not to trade him.
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