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Cuban Phenom Lazaro Armenteros To Hold Jan. Showcase

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Cuban phenom Lazaro Armenteros could be the next big thing, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes.  In fact, the 16-year-old could be the best amateur player to sign in 2016.

Armenteros, who has been given the soccer-type one-name moniker of Lazarito, possesses “a rare combination of dazzling speed, raw power and outfield arm strength” and profiles as a very strong corner outfielder.  One veteran international scout who marveled at his mix of speed and power even said that he has something that is reminiscent of Willie Mays and Bo Jackson.  Two more scouting directors confirmed to Nightengale that Armenteros has superstar potential.

Lazarito is so good that he already has a Japanese team willing to pay him $15MM to play in Nippon Professional Baseball, Nightengale hears.  Still, his main focus is signing with an MLB team.  On January 8th, Armenteros will show his stuff in a showcase for MLB teams in San Cristóbal.  In the meantime, MLB is expected to rule by the end of January whether he’s eligible to sign now, or must wait until the next signing period that begins July 2.

Armenteros attempted to defect Cuba multiple times, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez wrote back in September.  He first tried to fly into Ecuador, only to be sent back on a return flight.  He then traveled to Russia with the hopes of being able to fly from Moscow to Haiti, but he was once again sent away.  However, Lazarito made a savvy move and purchased a ticket to Haiti during a layover in Germany.  After spending some time in Haiti, the 16-year-old athlete made his way over to the Dominican Republic, where he works out six days a week in a remote beach town.

In the midst of all that craziness, Armenteros missed the May 15 cutoff date to officially register for the international signing period.  Now, MLB must decide whether to grant him an exemption.  There is precedent for that, so it is certainly possible that he will be given the green light.

Adding to the mystery is the fact that Armenteros has not been seen playing organized baseball since the summer of 2014.  Thanks to sanctions from the Cuban government, the Jan. 8 showcase will be his first time in front of MLB scouts in about 18 months.   Agent Charles Hairston says that 150 to 200 scouts will be on hand for the audition, even though they’re not supposed to be there.

“Technically, it’s illegal for teams to see him now,” Hairston says, “but every team I’ve talked to has confirmed they will be there. Everyone is very much aware of him.”

NL East Notes: Nats, Murphy, Marlins, Fernandez

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Greg Golson was the 21st overall pick in 2004 by the Phillies and appeared to be on his way to a promising career as he graded out as one of the organization’s Top 10 Prospects in four separate seasons.   However, thanks in part to injuries, the outfielder never fulfilled his potential and only had a cup of coffee in the major leagues.  Now, in an effort to get back on track, Golson is playing winter ball in Mexico, as he writes in an interesting read for Baseball America.

Here’s more out of the NL East:

  • The Nationals front office was apparently split on whether to sign Daniel Murphy, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.  However, there are two clear pros to adding the second baseman.  One is that the Nationals have effectively taken away a rival team’s best contact hitter.  The other is that Murphy fills a need by hitting left-handed.  On Thursday, the Nationals and Murphy reached agreement on a three-year deal worth $37.5MM.
  • There has been talk of an attitude problem when it comes to Marlins star Jose Fernandez, retired pitcher Dan Haren disagrees with that notion, as Scott Miller of Bleacher Report writes.  “No way,” Haren said. “No way. A lot of those things in [Slater’s] article were actually right. But at least from a pitcher’s standpoint, there’s no way anybody was on the bench rooting for Jose to get hit.”   Marlins starter Tom Koehler echoed Haren and backed Fernandez.  Still, multiple sources close to the Marlins indicated to Miller that Fernandez has grown more and more blunt with management, and some are miffed by the way he sometimes speaks to his superiors.
  • Borrowing a page from the NFL’s Green Bay Packers, the Braves are placing a heavy emphasis on building from within, Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes.  Prospects are never a sure thing, but Atlanta has more leeway to be wrong about their youngsters because they now have so many of them.  Pitcher Touki Toussaint, only 19 years old, is considered to be their strongest prospect and we could potentially see him make his big league debut in 2016.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Iwakuma, Payrolls, Gordon, Orioles

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We at MLB Trade Rumors tip our caps to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, who announced today that he is leaving the newspaper after a decade of fine work covering the Orioles.  Connolly’s name is a familiar one to MLBTR readers, as he has been a long-time source for Orioles information — just last week, in fact, Connolly broke the news that the O’s had agreed to sign Hyun-soo Kim.  We wish Dan all the best in his post-Sun endeavors and selfishly hope he keeps writing about baseball in some capacity in the future.

Onto some stocking-stuffer news items as we head into the birthday of Hall-of-Famers Rickey Henderson, Nellie Fox and Pud Galvin, a.k.a. Christmas Day…

  • Yoenis Cespedes’ market has been somewhat slow to develop, though “the Tigers appear to be sitting back waiting for” the free agent outfielder, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  Cespedes’ asking price may also be dropping as the offseason rolls along.  Detroit, Cespedes’ former team, has been linked to the slugger on the rumor mill but Tigers GM Al Avila said during the Winter Meetings that his team was out on both Cespedes and Alex Gordon.  That stance could change, of course, if Cespedes could be had at a lower price, though that feeling undoubtedly applies to more teams than just the Tigers.  The Angels, Orioles, Royals and Giants have also been rumored to have some level of interest in Cespedes this offseason.  Tim Dierkes predicted Cespedes for a six-year, $140MM contract while ranking him sixth on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.
  • The Mariners’ somewhat unique re-signing of Hisashi Iwakuma and his first contact with the M’s is chronicled by Fangraphs’ Tony Blengino, who was working as a special assistant to the GM in Seattle when Iwakuma was first signed by the club.  Injury concerns have plagued Iwakuma throughout his career — in Japan, possibly scuttling an agreement to join the A’s in 2011, during his stint as a Mariner and a red-flag physical that caused the Dodgers to back away from a three-year agreement.  Blengino also provides some interesting background into how teams approach physicals, as “there’s a fine line between being ’hurt’ and ’injured,’ and an MRI can find damage in just about any shoulder or elbow….It all comes down to the injury risk, in conjunction with the anticipated player production and dollar investment.”
  • A club’s payroll figures consists of far more than just the salaries of the 25-man roster, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times illustrates using the Mariners as an example.
  • Alex Gordon checks the boxes of everything the Royals would want in a franchise player, yet as Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes, the financial realities of a mid-market franchise make it unrealistic or even unwise for the Royals to splurge and re-sign the outfielder.  As was reported yesterday, there may be “no chance” of a reunion between the two sides if the Royals’ best offer is only four years and between $48MM-$52MM, a dollar figure Gordon may end up doubling on the open market.
  • Hyun-soo Kim had a “follow up” to his first physical with the Orioles that caused a delay in the club’s official announcement of their contract with the Korean outfielder, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  Despite the delay, “Kim never was in real danger of failing his physical,” so it appears the O’s were just being cautious.
  • In a separate item from Kubatko, he provides “non-update updates” on several bits of Orioles offseason business, noting that there haven’t been any new developments in the team’s talks with free agents like Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Yovani Gallardo or Scott Kazmir.

Pirates Notes: McCutchen, Melancon, Watson

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Here’s the latest from PNC Park…

  • Andrew McCutchen is under contract for two more seasons and the Pirates have a $14.5MM club option on him for 2018 that is right now a lock to be exercised.  Even with up to three years of control remaining, however, ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) believes the Bucs should open negotiations with McCutchen’s agents this spring in order to give both sides some idea if an extension is even possible.  The Pirates would have to offer a deal well beyond their usual comfort zone just to have a chance at locking McCutchen up past his age-31 season, and McCutchen would have to be willing to accept something below market value.  If there’s no common ground, Olney suggests Pittsburgh should start seeing what they could get for McCutchen in a trade, perhaps even as early as this summer.
  • Mark Melancon’s $10MM projected arbitration salary has made him a trade candidate this offseason, though Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review wonders if the Pirates have saved enough money in other transactions to be able to afford keeping the closer in 2016.  With the Bucs already suffering notable losses in the rotation and infield, Sawchik argues that the club could retrench around its excellent bullpen rather than trading from an area of strength.
  • How good, in fact, has Pittsbugh’s bullpen been?  Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan notes that Melancon and Tony Watson were the two best relievers in baseball from 2013-15 as per the Win Probability Added (WPA) metric.  The 2015 Pirates bullpen had a collective 11.8 WPA, the second-highest single-year total in history dating back to 1974.  Watson is also arbitration-eligible this winter, and MLBTR projects him to earn $4.6MM in his second time through the arb process.

Reactions To The Daniel Murphy Signing

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The Nationals got some last-minute Christmas shopping done by agreeing to a three-year, $37.5MM deal with Daniel Murphy today.  Here’s some of the early reaction to the signing…

  • The Nationals asked about Murphy at the trade deadline in 2014 and have long liked him, Mark Zuckerman tweets.  Murphy was an even better fit given the Nats’ need for a solid left-handed hitter in their lineup.
  • Murphy’s lefty swing might’ve been a key factor in his signing, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  Rosenthal had heard that Murphy was a “low priority” for Washington as the team looked for second base alternatives after a proposed trade for Brandon Phillips fell apart.  Since the Nats had such a glaring need for a left-handed hitter, that gave Murphy the edge over fellow free agent Howie Kendrick (a right-handed hitter) or other trade options.
  • In another set of tweets from Rosenthal, he believes the qualifying offer played a role in Murphy’s contract.  Any team signing Murphy would’ve had to give up a first-rounder (or second-rounder, in the case of a protected pick) as compensation, so the Nats had to surrender the 17th overall pick in the draft.  Since that pick had a rough valuation of $10MM, that “amounts to a tax” beyond what the team was willing to pay Murphy.  If teams were hesitant about giving up a pick for Murphy, that may well have depressed his market; MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes thought Murphy would sign for a four-year/$56MM deal this offseason.
  • Though Murphy and Anthony Rendon can both play second and third, MLB.com’s William Ladson sees Murphy and Danny Espinosa as the current favorites to be Washington’s Opening Day middle infielders (Twitter links).  Since Murphy is a below-average defender, however, Ladson sees the Nats acquiring a glove-first bench option to spell Murphy in the late innings of games.  Espinosa himself might eventually fill this role, though that will depend on when or if Trea Turner is able to take over the everyday shortstop job.
  • Murphy going to D.C. adds even more depth to an already-burgeoning rivalry between the Nationals and Mets, the New York Times’ Tim Rohan writes.  Rohan recaps Murphy’s important role in this era of Mets baseball and also the reasons why he was ultimately an expendable piece for the club.

Updated 2016 Draft Order

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While several major free agents have already been signed this offseason, there has been relatively little change to the 2016 amateur draft order.  It’s a little surprising given that, with a record 20 free agents receiving qualifying offers, the stage was set for a massive reshuffle for next year’s first round.

Or maybe, in hindsight, it’s not that surprising that the list of QO free agents is still pretty robust as we hit Christmas.  As ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote in his most recent subscription-only column, some agents and executives think that with an increasing number of teams preparing to “tank” the 2016 season, this has thinned the market for suitors for these established veterans.  There has also been a lot of attention paid to the free agents who didn’t have draft pick compensation attached to their services, as David Price, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Ben Zobrist have all been signed.

Assuming Daniel Murphy’s agreement with the Nationals is finalized, that will account for 11 of the 20 qualifying offer free agents off the board.  Of that 11-man group, Hisashi Iwakuma and Marco Estrada signed new contracts with their former teams and while three players (Colby Rasmus, Matt Wieters, Brett Anderson) also stayed put and set a precedent by accepting the QO.  That accounts for six free agent signings that impacted the updated draft order…

FIRST ROUND

1. Phillies
2. Reds
3. Braves
4. Rockies
5. Brewers
6. Athletics
7. Marlins
8. Padres
9. Tigers
10. White Sox
11. Mariners
12. Red Sox
13. Rays
14. Orioles
15. Indians
16. Twins
17. Angels
18. Astros
19. Yankees
20. Rangers
21. Mets
22. Dodgers
23. Blue Jays
24. Royals
25. Pirates
26. Cardinals

COMPENSATION ROUND (bonus picks given to teams who issued qualifying offers to players who signed elsewhere; picks are allotted in inverse order of 2015 record)

27. White Sox (for Jeff Samardzija signing with the Giants)
28. Nationals (for Jordan Zimmermann signing with the Tigers)
29. Mets (for Daniel Murphy signing with the Nationals)
30. Dodgers (for Zack Greinke signing with the Diamondbacks)
31. Cardinals (for John Lackey signing with the Cubs)
32. Cardinals (for Jason Heyward signing with the Cubs)

Thus far four teams (San Francisco, Arizona, Chicago and Washington) have given up their first-rounder to sign a qualifying offer free agent.  The D’Backs were originally slated for the 13th overall pick of the first round, the Nationals 18th, the Giants 19th and the Cubs 28th.

Since the Cubs signed two QO free agents, they’ve also given up their first pick of the second round.  It’s possible Chicago could recoup a pick in the compensation round, however, if the qualifying-offered Dexter Fowler signs with a new team.  Along those same lines, Washington gained a compensatory pick for Zimmermann and will get another when Ian Desmond signs elsewhere, which undoubtedly factored into the Nats being comfortable enough to give up their first-rounder for Murphy.

The top 10 slots in the draft are protected, so Detroit kept its first-rounder (ninth overall) and only has to surrender its top second-round pick in order to sign Zimmermann.

Beyond the compensation round are the Competitive Balance Selections (which were determined by a lottery in July and can be traded) and various other extra picks given to teams who failed to sign players in those corresponding spots in last year’s draft.  MLB.com’s amateur draft site has a full listing of every pick within the first three rounds, minus the changes in the wake of the Murphy agreement.

Nationals To Sign Daniel Murphy

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6:54pm: The contract is a three-year deal worth $37.5MM, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).

4:25pm: The Nationals have agreed to a three-year deal with second baseman Daniel Murphy, ESPN’s Jim Bowden reports (via Twitter).  The deal will become official once Murphy passes a physical, as per FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.  Murphy is represented by the ACES agency.

Washington’s interest in Murphy was first reported by MLB.com’s Bill Ladson last week.  The Nats have been looking for infield help for much of the winter, as they were finalists for Ben Zobrist’s services, had talks with Howie Kendrick and were on the verge of acquiring Brandon Phillips from the Reds before Phillips declined to waive his no-trade clause without a contract extension.MLB: NLCS-New York Mets at Chicago Cubs

Murphy, who turns 31 on April 1, hit .281/.322/.449 with a career-best 14 homers over 538 plate appearances in 2015.  A 13th-round pick for the Mets in the 2006 draft, Murphy developed into a very solid big leaguer who has posted 12.2 fWAR/9.6 bWAR over the last five years.  Mets fans will forever remember Murphy’s contributions in the 2015 postseason, as he posted a whopping 1.462 OPS and seven home runs over 39 PA in the NLDS and NLCS, a performance that earned him the NLCS MVP Award.  Murphy became the first player in baseball history to homer in six consecutive postseason games.

In Murphy, the Nationals add a player who provides good pop for a middle infielder and also a versatile defender who play third, first and (on a limited basis) left as well as the keystone.  In fact, according to metrics like UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved, second base is actually Murphy’s worst defensive position.  Since Anthony Rendon can also play both second and third, it’s possible the Nats could use Murphy at the hot corner.

Regardless of who plays second, the signing ensures that Danny Espinosa will take over at shortstop until top prospect Trea Turner is ready for the big leagues.  Murphy could also spell Ryan Zimmerman at first base against the occasional right-handed starter.  In any case, Murphy’s multi-positional ability gives manager Dusty Baker a lot of flexibility in arranging lineups and late-game situations.  Perhaps most importantly, Murphy also adds a much-needed left-handed bat to Washington’s lineup — Murphy and Bryce Harper are currently the only left-handed hitters projected to play everyday roles for the Nationals.

There wasn’t too much public buzz about Murphy’s free agent market before the Nats emerged, as the Rockies, Dodgers and Mets all had some interest but in somewhat limited fashion.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Murphy 17th on his list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and predicted he’d land a four-year/$56MM contract.  It could be that Murphy’s market was impacted by the number of notable infielders being dealt this offseason.  The three teams noted in Dierkes’ list (the Angels, White Sox and Yankees), for example, all addressed infield needs in trades for the likes of Andrelton Simmons, Yunel Escobar, Brett Lawrie, Todd Frazier and Starlin Castro.

Since Murphy rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, New York will receive a compensation pick between the first and second rounds of the 2016 draft.  The Nationals, in turn, will have to surrender their first-round pick (17th overall) the draft but they may end up taking only a minor slide down the draft board since they have two QO free agents of their own.  Washington already received a compensation round pick when Jordan Zimmermann signed with the Tigers and they could receive another if Ian Desmond signs elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of Dennis Wierzbicki/USA Today Sports Images

Mets Notes: Murphy, Payroll, Zobrist, O’Day

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Any chance that might’ve existed for a reunion between Daniel Murphy and the Mets evaporated with the news of Murphy’s three-year agreement with the Nationals.  Murphy going to an NL East rival probably stings the Mets, though the club had never expressed too much interest in re-signing the infielder and had already moved on by trading for Neil Walker and signing Asdrubal Cabrera to address middle infield needs.  Because Murphy rejected the Mets’ $15.8MM qualifying offer (an offer that was no certainty to be extended prior to Murphy’s huge postseason), New York now receives a compensatory draft pick between the first and second rounds of next June’s amateur draft.  Here’s some more from Queens…

  • The Mets’ 2016 payroll stands at roughly $106.5MM, according to ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin.  This total includes projected arbitration salaries, estimated $600K salaries for pre-arb players and another $600K for the right-handed hitting outfielder Rubin feels the team will add before Opening Day.  While $106.5MM is low by the standards of a big-market club (especially one in New York), it’s actually slated to be the Mets’ highest Opening Day payroll in five years, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
  • In a follow-up tweet, Rubin feels the payroll could be in the neighborhood of $112MM depending on the backup outfielder and if the Mets acquire a setup man.
  • While the Mets continue to be criticized for their modest spending, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if the critics would’ve disappeared had the team been successful in landing Ben Zobrist, who the Mets made a huge push to sign before he opted to join the Cubs.  That said, Sherman wonders if the Mets front office has by this point simply “just learned not to even go to certain areas” in terms of player contracts since it knows that ownership doesn’t have the funds.  Sherman believes, for instance, that Darren O’Day would’ve been an ideal target and could’ve been a huge upgrade for the Mets’ bullpen, yet the club refused to spend at the top of the relief market.
  • In other Mets news from earlier today on MLBTR, the club has ruled out a pursuit of Yoenis Cespedes.  According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, the Mets made Cespedes an offer of two or three years, though no salary figures were discussed.

Central Notes: Gallardo, Tigers, Pirates

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Here’s a look at the AL and NL Central:

  • The Royals and Yovani Gallardo were in touch as recently as Wednesday, sources tell Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).  The Royals are on the hunt for pitching and they have been linked to Gallardo several times throughout the winter.  Gallardo, 30 in February, is coming off a solid season with the Rangers in which he totaled 184 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball for his hometown club, averaging 5.9 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 to go along with a 49.3 percent ground-ball rate. However, he’s seen his strikeout rate dip considerably over the past three seasons, and his 90.4 mph average fastball in 2015 was more than two miles per hour slower than his 92.7 mph peak.  Gallardo took the No. 20 spot on the top fifty free agent list of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, who predicts that he can achieve a $52MM guarantee on the open market.
  • In this week’s mailbag, a reader asked Jason Beck of MLB.com if the Tigers have become overly conservative when it comes to the idea of trading prospects.  Of course, former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was never shy about trading young talent in an effort to contend in the present.  Beck does believe that Detroit is weary about giving up talented prospects, not just for future seasons, but because of depth in the here-and-now.  Injuries have caught up with the Tigers over the last couple of years and Beck believes that they are looking to hang on to their best youngsters as possible fill-ins.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington is aware that he is gambling somewhat by placing newly-acquired John Jaso at first base.  “We recognize there is risk,” Huntington said, according to Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “We recognize we just experienced a tough defensive season at first base. At the same time, we also recognize that for us to be successful, there are going to have to be calculated risks. In our minds, this is a good one to take. “We feel like the offensive upside is worth the calculated gamble that he’s going to be able to play first base.”

Astros To Sign Cuban Pitcher Carlos Sierra

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2:50pm: The deal won’t be for “big money,” according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (on Twitter).  Sierra is not viewed as a major pickup, but Houston is quite high on him.

2:24pm: The Astros have reached agreement on a deal with Cuban pitcher Carlos Sierra, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter).  Sierra, 21, will be subject to international signing rules.  Terms of the deal are not yet known.

Interestingly, Sierra was permitted to leave Cuba legally to play in Spain, with plans to come stateside, because he was able to achieve Spanish citizenship.  This past season, Sierra looked strong as he pitched in the Canary Islands for the Tenerife Marlins in the Division de Honor de Beisbol, the top baseball league in Spain.

As Sanchez wrote back in April, Sierra boasts a 90+ mph fastball that he can hurl at three different angles.  He also throws a slider, a curveball, and a circle-change.  Back in October, Sierra displayed his stuff in a showcase for MLB teams and he obviously made a strong impression on the Astros.  Sierra showed his stuff again earlier this month and the cash-flush Dodgers were one of eight clubs on hand for that session, as J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group tweets.

Unlike many Cuban players who must defect in order to establish residency elsewhere, Sierra was granted Spanish citizenship due to his grandfather’s roots.  He left Cuba legally, flying from Havana to Madrid in February.

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