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Cardinals Sign Mike Leake

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After spending much of the offseason searching for a rotation upgrade, the Cardinals on Tuesday added a much-needed arm to the equation, announcing the signing of right-hander Mike Leake to a five-year deal. Leake, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, will reportedly take home a guarantee of $80MM. His contract also includes a mutual option that can escalate the deal to $93MM and a full no-trade clause. Via CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman (on Twitter), Leake’s contract has a somewhat unusual sloped structure — he will receive $12MM in 2016, $15MM in 2017, $17MM in 2018, $16MM in 2019, $15MM in 2020, then an $18MM option or a $5MM buyout in 2021.

Mike Leake (vertical)

Having lost right-hander John Lackey to free agency — specifically, to the division-rival Cubs — and right-hander Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery, St. Louis’ need for starting pitching was clear.  The Cardinals began their search with a high-profile pursuit of David Price and even made the second-best offer to ace left-hander.  But, while their seven-year offer edged out the rival Cubs, it was still worth $30MM less than that of the Red Sox.

Over the last few weeks, the Cardinals have continued to scan the market, though they were known to be averse to signing any player who had rejected the qualifying offer.  Quality pitchers like Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, and Wei-Yin Chen are still available as of this writing, but the Cardinals were not terribly interested in sacrificing a draft pick in order to sign any of them.  The Cardinals were also keeping an eye on Scott Kazmir, but he almost certainly will not be signing in St. Louis now.

In 2015, for the second consecutive year, Leake posted a 3.70 ERA, marking three straight seasons with a sub-3.75 ERA and at least 190 innings.  All but two months of those three years came while pitching his home games at an extremely hitter-friendly home venue: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park.  Leake was able to thrive in large part due to his excellent control (2.3 BB/9 for his career) and his strong ground-ball rate.  Leake’s 50.2 percent career mark in that regard is impressive, and it’s ticked upwards over the past two seasons, now siting closer to 53 percent.  And, though he has just one season of 200-plus innings, Leake has been virtually injury free throughout his career.

However, in an age where velocity and strikeouts are being emphasized more than ever, Leake doesn’t bring either to the table. His career-best K/9 rate is 2014’s 6.9, and he averaged just 5.6 K/9 in 2015. Leake has added some life to his fastball each year, but this season’s 90.9 mph average still rated below the 91.7 mph league average for starting pitchers.

Leake has owned right-handed hitters over the past two seasons, but he’s had less success against lefties, and that’s been a trend throughout his career. He’s yielded a .274/.324/.444 batting line to lefties throughout his big league tenure. Some of that should be taken with a grain of salt, as those numbers aren’t park-adjusted, but that’s still the rough equivalent of Evan Longoria’s 2015 batting line — hardly an ideal result.

Nevertheless, Leake’s addition to the rotation will give the Cardinals stability that they previously lacked. While young arms such as Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales each possess undeniable upside — Martinez and Wacha have displayed much of that potential in the Majors already — each comes with some injury concerns.  Another highly talented arm, Jaime Garcia, has proven to be injury prone. While the Cardinals exercised his $11.5MM club option for the 2016 season earlier this winter, the team still can’t rely on him for 200-plus innings.  In Leake, the Cardinals will solidify one of the middle spots in their rotation by adding a pitcher that has proven to be a consistent source of 30-plus starts and 190-plus innings each season.

As an added means of value, Leake was a noted two-way player in college, and his experience as an infielder makes him a solid defender on the mound and an above-average bat, relative to his mound peers.  In 411 career plate appearances, Leake is a .212/.235/.310 hitter.  Those numbers are unsightly when compared to the rest of the league but dwarf the 2015 league-average batting line for pitchers: .131/.158/.168.  Because Leake was traded from the Reds to the Giants midway through the 2015 season, he won’t cost the Cardinals a draft pick.  St. Louis will preserve its first-rounder and, in fact, have three picks in the top 40 or so selections next year thanks to the picks acquired as compensation for losing Lackey and Jason Heyward to the Cubs.

Depending on the yearly breakdown, Leake’s contract — which is an exact match with MLBTR’s predictions on our Top 50 free agent list and Leake’s free agent profile — should bring the Cardinals’ Opening Day payroll to about $122MM, which would match last year’s Opening Day mark.  The Cardinals are well-positioned to add a long-term commitment to the ledger, as the team has just three players — Adam Wainwright, Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko — under guaranteed contracts beyond the 2017 season.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the agreement and the financial details (links to Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Top Ten Remaining Free Agents

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We’re now deep into the MLB offseason, and a number of the winter’s best free agents — David Price, Jason Heyward, Zack Greinke — are off the board. It has, however, been a quiet winter, at least in terms of the number of published reports, for many of the rest of the best players available. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently explored the reasons why, focusing on the qualifying offer, the lack of involvement in the market by some traditional big spenders (Yankees, Angels), the large number of rebuilding teams, and the robust trade market. Nonetheless, the free agent market is sure to pick up in the coming weeks. Here’s a look at the best ten free agents left, with their rankings from Tim Dierkes’ Top 50 free agents list from early November.

4. Justin Upton. Upton’s market has seemed quiet, with most recent news reports naming teams who aren’t likely to heavily pursue him (like the Angels, Cardinals and Giants). Upton’s agent met with the Orioles earlier this month (although their level of interest might be different now depending on their progress with Chris Davis and their deal with Hyun-soo Kim). The White Sox could perhaps enter the market for Upton.

5. Chris Davis. Davis has been most strongly connected with the Orioles, who made a significant offer earlier this month that they later rescinded (although without ruling out the possibility of future discussions). Beyond that, Davis’ market is unclear, not only from recent reports, but apparently also in the eyes of the Orioles themselves, who aren’t even sure who they’re bidding against.

6. Yoenis Cespedes. Like those of Upton and Davis, the rumor mill surrounding Cespedes has been relatively quiet. The Tigers reportedly have some interest, although perhaps only if Cespedes’ price drops. The Orioles have also been connected to Cespedes. The Mets have reportedly dropped out of the running.

9. Alex Gordon. The Royals have reportedly been told that there’s “no chance” they’ll re-sign Gordon if they don’t increase their offer, and recent comments from Arte Moreno seem to suggest that the Angels aren’t a likely destination either. The White Sox, however, have emerged as a possible suitor, and Gordon has been connected to a wide variety of teams this offseason.

10. Ian Desmond. It appears Desmond’s market has been slow to develop, which perhaps isn’t surprising given that he’s coming off a subpar season. The latest significant bits of news — and these are both over a week old — are that the Padres aren’t likely to make a large offer and that teams have at least some interest in using Desmond at second, third or outfield, even though he’s played shortstop almost exclusively in his big-league career.

13. Wei-Yin Chen. Many of the top pitchers in this year’s free agent market are off the board, with Chen as the top remaining name. The Dodgers might be a possibility, and the Nationals might as well. It’s unclear, however, whether any team will be willing to meet Chen’s reported five-year, $100MM asking price.

14. Kenta Maeda. On Christmas Day, the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett tweeted that, according to a source in the Japanese media, Maeda visited Dodger Stadium on Thursday. That remains unconfirmed right now, but if in fact the Dodgers were close to signing Maeda, it would certainly make sense — the Dodgers figure to be in on most of the top starting pitchers remaining after having missed out on Greinke and other pitching targets. The deadline for Maeda to sign is January 8.

16. Dexter Fowler. The team to which Fowler has been most heavily connected lately has been the Giants, with another report mentioning the Royals as a possibility. One might think, though, that the market for second-tier outfielders like Fowler and Denard Span won’t come into focus until some of the bigger names come off the market, even though Fowler’s skill set as a full-time leadoff hitter and center fielder is somewhat different than those of Upton, Cespedes and Gordon.

18. Scott Kazmir. In contrast with a number of other big-name free agents, Kazmir’s name has popped up over and over this offseason. Lately, he’s been connected to the Nationals, Orioles, Royals, Athletics and Astros. He has apparently received offers of three years, but might be holding out hope for four. That could be a sticking point for some teams — the Orioles, for example, might not be willing to sign Kazmir to a four-year deal.

19. Ian Kennedy. Kennedy lately has been connected to the Royals and Marlins. At issue for Kennedy, of course, is that, in contrast with some other mid-tier options, signing him will result in the loss of a draft pick. Of course, the qualifying offer has not prevented pitchers like John Lackey, Jeff Samardzija and Hisashi Iwakuma from finding homes.

Padres Release Jay Jackson To Pursue Opportunity In Japan

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The Padres have released righty Jay Jackson so that he can sign with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp in Japan, MLB.com’s Corey Brock tweets. Jackson had been on the Padres’ 40-man roster since September. This marks the second time this week that the Padres have lost a reliever to Japan — Marcos Mateo appears set to sign with the Hanshin Tigers.

The 28-year-old Jackson made his big-league debut in 2015, pitching 4 1/3 innings and striking out four while allowing three runs and one walk. The hard thrower spent most of the season with Triple-A El Paso, posting a 2.54 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 63 2/3 innings. Jackson, formerly a top prospect with the Cubs, is also a veteran of the Marlins, Pirates and Brewers systems.

Minor League Notes: Melotakis, Golson, Nationals

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The Twins hid lefty reliever Mason Melotakis from other teams during instructional league play, Phil Miller writes for Baseball America (subscription only). The idea was that Melotakis was recovering from Tommy John surgery, and the Twins didn’t want scouts from other teams to see him before the Rule 5 Draft. “We’ve got a lot of fields down there. There’s always an empty one,” says Twins vice president for player personnel Mike Radcliff. As it turned out, Melotakis looked so good this fall (throwing in the mid-90s) that the Twins decided not to take the risk of losing him, and they added him to their 40-man roster. “We’re not projecting what his stuff might be—we saw it, we know it’s back. He’s going to be a major leaguer very soon,” says Radcliff. Here’s more on baseball outside the Majors.

  • Former Phillies first-round pick Greg Golson writes for Baseball America that he’s not yet ready to give up the game. Since playing independent ball in the US in 2014, the 30-year-old Golson has played in Mexico, both in the last two winters and in the 2015 regular season. Golson writes that, after initially struggling to adjust to a new culture and to strike zones in Mexico, he settled in and began to enjoy playing in an environment in which his team was focused on winning, rather than on developing players for the Majors. “Not to knock the minor leagues or affiliated ball, but there is a focus on development there that takes away from the game,” Golson writes. “I fell in love with the game again because I was put in a position where the only thing that mattered was winning.”
  • Tyler Maun of MiLB.com’s look at the Nationals’ farm system features plenty of tidbits from Nats director of player development Mark Scialabba. As one might expect, Scialabba sounds particularly high on top prospects Lucas Giolito and Trea Turner. Of Giolito, Scialabba says, “He’s improving his fastball command. It’s getting to the point now where he has a lot of confidence in using the fastball to different parts of the strike zone. … He continues to work on the little things like holding runners and fielding his position.” Scialabba also praises 18-year-old outfielder Victor Robles, a Dominican who hit .352/.445/.507 in an outstanding first season in the US in 2015. “Just overall, his natural instincts as a baseball player [stand out],” says Scialabba. “There are great athletes that are very raw, that don’t have those sorts of baseball instincts at a young age, but he has a little bit of everything.”

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/26/15

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Here are today’s minor moves from around the game.

  • The Yankees have signed outfielder Cesar Puello, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy tweets. The deal would presumably be of the minor league variety. Eddy notes that Puello is the only player from the Biogenesis scandal who has not yet played in the big leagues. The Mets released the former top prospect in August after he missed most of the 2015 season due to a back injury. The 24-year-old batted .252/.355/.393 in hitter-friendly Triple-A Las Vegas in 2014.
  • The Brewers have re-signed righty Tim Dillard, Eddy tweets. (Eddy also notes the Brewers’ signing of lefty Nick Hagadone.) The 32-year-old Dillard last appeared in the big leagues in 2012. Last season, he struggled in Triple-A Colorado Springs (which is, like Las Vegas, a difficult environment in which to pitch), posting a 5.50 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 54 innings. Those numbers were, however, severely skewed by six extremely poor outings as a starter; he posted a 1.72 ERA in 31 1/3 innings of relief.

Week In Review: 12/19/15 – 12/25/15

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Here’s a look back at the past week at MLBTR.

Key Moves

Trades

Extensions

Signings / Re-signings

Avoided Arbitration

Claimed

Outrights

Released

Retired

Key Minor League Signings

AL Notes: Rays, Orioles, Twins

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On December 16th, the Orioles agreed to sign Korean outfielder Hyun-soo Kim to a two-year, $7MM deal.  However, the pact wasn’t officially announced until one week later on December 23rd.  The culprit? – the Orioles’ notoriously thorough physical.  Luckily for both sides, however, Kim was never in any real danger of not passing the exam.

Here’s a look at the American League, including some discussion on what the O’s might do next:

  • In a recent mailbag, a reader asked Bill Chastain of MLB.com if Rene Rivera will still be in the Rays’ plans for the 2016 season.  Rivera had a disappointing first season at the plate in Tampa Bay after coming over via trade, but the Rays are hopeful that he can turn that around while maintaining his solid defense.  The Rays could keep Rivera, Curt Casali, and Hank Conger in ’16, or they might opt to trade one of the three to clear out the surplus.  Keeping all three wouldn’t be a crazy notion as Casali and Conger can provide offense where Rivera cannot.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com wonders where the Orioles’ next left-handed hitter will come from.  Chris Davis, of course, would satisfy that need, but Baltimore has made it clear that it will not wait around for him.  Other alternatives could include signing a left-handed DH like Pedro Alvarez or really opening up the checkbook to ink Alex Gordon.  Meanwhile, the O’s are also expected to take a peek at the available second-tier starters.
  • The Twins were on a mission to keep Mason Melotakis’ recovery under wraps in an effort to keep him away from interested teams in the Rule 5 draft, as Phil Miller writes for Baseball America (sub. req’d).  Ultimately, however, the Twins put him on the 40-man roster rather than risk losing him.

NL Notes: Cabrera, Cardinals, Phillips

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In 2015, Matt Duffy thrust himself into the baseball limelight for his play on the field as well as his social media presence, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  As far as the baseball part goes, Duffy says that he isn’t stressing over whether he can manage a repeat performance in 2016.

“I think it’s human to think about that,” Duffy said. “But you just get back to what made me able to do it. I wasn’t worrying about hitting .300 or hitting ten homers.  I did it by focusing on the most simple thing: See the ball as big as I can and put a good swing on it. As soon as you think about other people’s expectations, you lock yourself up trying to do the simplest things.”

Here’s more out of the National League:

  • Mark Simon of ESPN.com looked at new Mets shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and stacked him up against everyone else at his position at shortstop.  Ultimately, Cabrera does not grade out as an elite option, but he is an upgrade over what the Mets had there prevously.  A major league scout told Simon that Cabrera profiles similarly to former teammate Jhonny Peralta. “I don’t think he’s a top-15 shortstop, but he’s in the middle of the pack,” said the scout. “What I like about in him is his ability to switch-hit, and I like his hands defensively. Everything he gets to, he’ll catch. Range-wise, he’s limited, but he’s still a quality baseball player. He knows how to do little things that help his team win. He may not match up to the kids at shortstop athletically, but he’ll surpass them in baseball intelligence. His brain is top-10. He’s still a very good guy to have on a major-league roster.” Cabrera inked a deal with the Mets which will guarantee him $18.5MM over the next two seasons plus a club option that could keep him in place through 2018.  As it stands, Cabrera might go down as the Mets’ biggest free agent splash this winter.
  • The Cardinals must focus on offensive development to remain a perennial contender, Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch opines.  Thanks to revenue sharing, even smaller market teams are able to lock up their young bats well before they can ever hit the open market.  Historically, the Cardinals have shied away from the high-ceiling potential of high school hitters in favor of college players with quick developmental potential.  Now, with three selections within the first 40 or so picks, Gordon believes that the Cards can afford to go with more long-range prospects.
  • Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News cannot understand why Reds Brandon Phillips refused to sign off on a trade that would have sent him to the Nationals.  The second baseman reportedly wanted enhancements made to his current pact, which calls for him to earn $27MM over the next two years.  McCoy views the veteran as greedy for making those demands and can’t fathom why he wouldn’t want to play for a winning team like the Nationals, especially when it means that he could have been reunited with Dusty Baker.  Of course, after the Nats agreed to sign Daniel Murphy, there’s no real chance of that deal coming back together.

NL West Notes: Shields, Dodgers, Padres

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Here’s a look at the NL West:

  • With pitching costs rising around baseball, Jeff Sanders of U-T San Diego wonders if James Shields’ contract is now movable.  Shields is owed $65MM through 2018 and San Diego probably can’t find a taker for all of it, but they could potentially find a match if they’re willing to eat some of that salary.  In a market where Mike Leake scored $16MM/year with a career 4.21 FIP, it’s not inconceivable that a match could be found for Shields.
  • On Christmas Eve, Jim Duquette of MLB.com suggested a trio of trades that, in his opinion, make too much sense not to happen.  Among the deals is a swap between the Dodgers and Rays that would send Jake Odorizzi and Brad Boxberger to Los Angeles.  Odorizzi would give the Dodgers a strong middle-of-the-rotation arm while Boxberger would give them a solid power arm to go along with Kenley Jansen in the bullpen.  The price, of course, wouldn’t be cheap.  Duquette sees the Rays targeting a package featuring left-hander Julio Urias, righty Jose DeLeon, and second baseman Micah Johnson, plus some other mid-level prospects.
  • The Padres have a mess on their hands as a “mentally ill man” took legal title to Petco Park by filing out a deed transfer, as David Garrick of U-T San Diego writes.  The man, Derris Devon McQuaig, cannot truly claim ownership to the building, but he can create a hassle for others. “I don’t think in any way it would be deemed credible because it’s pretty clearly just a ‘wild deed’ that has no legal sufficiency,” Olson said. “But it could cause headaches for someone down the road.”

Follow MLBTR On Instagram

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Earlier this year, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account: @TradeRumorsMLB.  Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball.  From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend.

Recently, we’ve giving fans an early look at traded players in their new jerseys.  Here’s a glance at how Starlin Castro will look in pinstripes.  And how about Ben Zobrist in his new Cubs uniform?  If you’re looking for Todd Frazier in a White Sox jersey, Johnny Cueto in a Giants uniform, or Mike Leake in his new threads, we’ve got you covered there too.

So, what are you waiting for?  If you don’t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one.  Follow us on Instagram today!

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