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Orioles Interested In Yovani Gallardo

By Jeff Todd | November 25, 2015 at 5:57pm CDT

The Orioles have made contact with the representatives of Yovani Gallardo to express interest in the free agent righty, Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports. Encina cautions that it is still early in the process and there does not appear to be any likelihood of near-term movement. Indeed, we heard recently that Gallardo’s agent expects it to take some time for his market to develop.

Gallardo, 29, took the twentieth spot on the top fifty free agent list of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. While he no longer profiles as a top-of-the-rotation arm, Gallardo fits in the mold of other recent free agent hurlers who have commanded four-year deals at better than $12MM annually. Dierkes predicts that he can achieve a $52MM guarantee on the open market.

Of course, one of those recent comparables — Ubaldo Jimenez — signed his deal with Baltimore two years ago. That contract was, and still is, the richest pitching contract ever given out by the club.

The O’s needed to give up a draft pick to sign Jimenez, and the same would be required to add Gallardo, who declined a qualifying offer from the Rangers. Baltimore owns the 15th overall pick in this year’s draft and stands to add two more top selections if and when Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen sign with new teams.

Baltimore’s staff certainly appears to be in need of supplementation, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explained in his offseason outlook piece on the club. Gallardo comes with his share of risk — metrics suggest that his sub-3.50 ERA over the last two seasons has been about half a run per nine lucky — but he has been exceedingly durable and has a a nice overall track record of production.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Yovani Gallardo

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Free Agent Profile: Wei-Yin Chen

By Tim Dierkes | November 25, 2015 at 5:10pm CDT

After a successful four-year stint with the Orioles, Taiwanese lefty Wei-Yin Chen has reached free agency coming off the best season of his MLB career.

Strengths/Pros

Since 2014, Chen has a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings.  That ranks 28th among all qualified MLB starters, 11th among southpaws, and seventh among a historically strong free agent class.  While Chen is not an ace, he’s had better recent results than the casual fan might realize, and he’s been better than free agent peers Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake.

Sep 26, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Wei-Yin Chen (16) delivers a pitch during the first inning of the game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Chen is not going to beat himself.  His 1.81 BB/9 ranks tenth among qualified starters for 2014-15, and he’s walked a lower percentage of batters faced than even Zack Greinke.  Chen was unhittable against lefties this year, as only Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw allowed a lower weighted on-base average against them.  Chen throws hard for a southpaw, as his average fastball velocity over the last two years of 91.6 miles per hour ranks seventh among qualified lefty starters.

Chen features a healthy left arm.  His only MLB DL stint was for an oblique strain in 2013.  In each of his other three MLB campaigns, he made at least 31 starts.  Over the past four years, Chen has made more starts than guys like Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Johnny Cueto.

Chen has youth on his side, as he turned 30 in July.  He’s younger than mid-range free agent southpaws Scott Kazmir and J.A. Happ, making four years palatable and five years possible.

Weaknesses/Cons

If you’re not into ERA, Chen doesn’t look all that great.  Though he had that 3.44 ERA over the last two seasons, his SIERA during that time was 3.91.  Chen’s skills suggest he’s more Wade Miley/Jon Niese than Jose Quintana/Francisco Liriano.  I’m not just citing an esoteric stat here.  Chen’s strikeout rates have always been pedestrian, generally at or below league average.  His groundball rate ranks 42nd among qualified starters over the last two years, and his attendant home run rate is the sixth-worst in baseball.  To succeed, Chen needs a strong defense and a big ballpark.  Even then, the expectation should be league average innings.

On that note, Chen is not going to save a team’s bullpen, as he has averaged 6.08 innings per start over the last two seasons.  Among those with at least 60 starts, that ranks 28th of 46.  Samardzija and Leake will regularly go deeper into games than Chen.

Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, so signing him requires a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  This is a disadvantage for Chen compared to pitchers such as Cueto, Leake, Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda.  Teams like the Red Sox and Diamondbacks would have to forfeit an early-teens draft pick to sign Chen, which could cause them to look elsewhere in a robust market for free agent pitching.

Personal

Chen, a native of Taiwan, dropped out of college in 2004 to play pro ball, according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker.  He reportedly received offers from Japanese and MLB teams at the time.  According to Newman, Chen chose to sign with with the Chunichi Dragons because of Taiwanese scout Ta-Feng Chen.  After spending a little bit of time with the Dragons as well as their farm team, Chen went down for Tommy John surgery in late 2006.  Newman tells me the Dragons released him while he was rehabbing, re-signing him to an ikusei contract.  He went on to star with the Dragons, winning an ERA title in 2009.  At the pitcher’s request, the Dragons released Chen after the 2011 season, allowing him to reach international free agency without dealing with the posting system.  Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette, who had been hired a few months earlier, signed Chen to a three-year contract worth $11.388MM guaranteed, with a club option for a fourth year.  Duquette had also signed Tsuyoshi Wada out of Japan for $8.15MM.  Chen was the first Taiwan-born player to sign with an MLB team out of Japan, as well as the first Taiwanese player in Orioles history.  Chen’s big league debut attracted more than a million viewers in Taiwan, where the game was carried on three national TV networks.

Market

The Orioles have a lot of needs to fill, and they don’t seem likely to re-sign Chen.  Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun noted recently that the O’s have never given a five-year deal to a free agent pitcher, plus Chen was “miffed” by the team’s decision to send him to the minors briefly in June due to a roster crunch.  Chen’s market could include teams such as the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, D’Backs, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, Twins, and Yankees.  According to Connolly, Chen and his family reside in Southern California in the offseason.  As I mentioned, some clubs will back away because of the qualifying offer.  Others may prefer not to do business with agent Scott Boras or won’t have the payroll space for Chen.  There are four potential $100MM+ pitchers on the market, and then there is a second tier with Chen, Samardzija, Leake, and perhaps Maeda.  I project this to be the $80MM range, and certainly there are reasons to prefer Chen to the other three.  Samardzija is coming off a 4.96 ERA, Leake misses even fewer bats and had a higher ERA than Chen, and Maeda is unproven in MLB and may not even be posted.  Plus, Chen is the only southpaw of his tier.  If Chen drops down to four years, he could be compared to Kazmir.  Kazmir is no horse himself, and he’s a year and a half older than Chen.

Expected Contract

I’ve seen some four-year projections for Chen’s contract, and while that is possible, I believe he’ll get five.  Next year’s free agent market is one factor — Chen would be the second-best starting pitcher in that weak group, which might be important to forward-looking teams.  There’s also the Boras factor.  He got a four-year deal for a 35-year-old Derek Lowe.  He routinely gets his clients contracts at the top end of their range, particularly those coming off a good year.  There’s also good old-fashioned earned run average.  A 3.34 ERA still sounds really good.  If Boras has a team owner’s ear on Chris Davis, surely he’ll bring up Chen and sell the lefty on the basis of that ERA.  ERA still seems to hold sway in the marketplace – look no further than the James Shields signing or the Alfredo Simon trade.  While I see a ceiling of $90MM, I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM contract for Chen.

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2015-16 Free Agent Profiles Baltimore Orioles Wei-Yin Chen

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Braves Sign Bud Norris

By Jeff Todd | November 25, 2015 at 3:22pm CDT

The Braves have agreed to a one-year major league deal with free agent righty Bud Norris, the club announced. He’ll earn $2.5MM for 2016, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).

Norris, 30, will look for redemption in Atlanta after suffering through a rough 2015 season. On the year, he allowed 6.72 earned runs per nine over 83 innings with 7.7 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. Along the way, Norris lost his rotation spot and ultimately his roster spot with the Orioles before landing in the Padres’ bullpen.

The Braves will plug Norris into the rotation, GM John Coppolella tells David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). He has been useful in such a role previously, of course: in 955 2/3 career innings as a starter, Norris owns a 4.38 ERA. And that’s skewed somewhat by his early-career results.

Atlanta obviously needed another depth piece in its rotation. While there are a number of young players at or near the majors, the staff has a fair bit of uncertainty. The only sure things, arguably, are Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran, but it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if either or both ended up being traded.

If the righty doesn’t transition well back to the starting staff, he could always turn into a useful reliever. Norris did manage a career-best 11.3 K/9 rate while working in the San Diego pen last season.

 

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Atlanta Braves Newsstand Transactions Bud Norris

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John Axford, Daniel Nava, Brandon Gomes Elect Free Agency

By Steve Adams | November 25, 2015 at 2:58pm CDT

Right-hander John Axford has elected free agency after refusing an outright assignment from the Rockies following last week’s DFA, the club announced. Also electing free agency today from last Friday’s wave of DFAs were outfielder Daniel Nava and right-hander Brandon Gomes, both of whom were designated for assignment by the Rays.

Axford, 32, was perhaps the most surprising of the bunch to be designated for assignment. The right-hander spent much of the season as Colorado’s closer and worked to generally successful results. Axford admittedly struggled through a dreadful stretch that lasted nearly two months and saw him yield 19 runs in 17 2/3 innings, but he was dominant outside of that spell (seven earned runs in 38 innings).

All told, the veteran righty finished with a 4.20 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 10.0 K/9, 5.2 BB/9 and a career-best 56.1 percent ground-ball rate. Axford did carry a hefty $6.5MM arbitration projection (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), but his production, when considering his home park, was 11 percent better than the league-average (by measure of ERA+). Fangraphs’ FIP- pegged him at 15 percent better than league average. Axford may not land a guarantee as large as his arbitration projection, but he does figure to draw some Major League offers this winter.

Nava, 33 in February, suffered through the worst season of his career but has been a regular or semi-regular contributor in each season dating back to 2010 (primarily with Boston). The switch-hitter batted only .194/.315/.245 in 166 plate appearances between the Red Sox and Rays this year but is a career .265/.358/.383 hitter overall and sports an even more impressive .281/.377/.409 batting line against right-handed pitching. Nava’s track record against righties and history of above-average defense in the outfield corners should at least generate interest in him as a platoon option. He had been projected to earn $1.9MM.

As for Gomes, the 31-year-old has been a frequent contributor to the Tampa Bay bullpen over the past five seasons, amassing a career 4.20 ERA in 167 innings — 59 of which came in 2015 (a career high). Gomes has averaged 7.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 with a 32.7 percent ground-ball rate and a 91 mph average fastball as a big leaguer. His lack of ground-balls and susceptibility to home runs makes him a better fit for a team in a large park (and certainly one away from the AL East’s collection of relatively small stadiums), but Gomes has a useful track record and should at the very least lock down an invitation to big league Spring Training with a real chance to crack the bullpen somewhere this winter. He’d been projected at $900K for the 2016 season.

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Colorado Rockies Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Brandon Gomes Daniel Nava John Axford

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Cubs, Cards, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox Showing Most Interest In Price

By Steve Adams | November 25, 2015 at 2:03pm CDT

The Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox are showing the most interest in left-hander David Price, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal adds that while Price enjoyed his time in Toronto, the Blue Jays “are not expected to be a major factor in his free agency,” which isn’t necessarily a surprise considering the team’s previous reluctance to commit the type of expenditure Price will command to any player. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported today that there’s a “high expectation” among executives involved in the Price bidding that the Red Sox will make the highest offer (links to Twitter). Tom Verducci also said in a recent MLB Network appearance that Boston will aggressively pursue Price.

Other clubs will naturally show interest in Price and presumably already have. However, the common belief that Price is capable of approaching or exceeding Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM contract from last offseason suggests that many teams will be priced out of serious consideration.

Each of the clubs listed by Rosenthal has a need in the rotation, though some to a greater extent than others. The Cardinals recently lost Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery and saw several of their promising young arms slowed by injuries in 2015 (including Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales). The Dodgers could potentially lose Zack Greinke to free agency and don’t know what to expect from either Hyun-jin Ryu or Brandon McCarthy in 2016. The Giants’ rotation was highly unstable in 2015 behind ace Madison Bumgarner, and the Red Sox struggled through 2015 with one of the game’s worst performances from their rotation. The need for the Cubs is less glaring on paper, as Chicago ranked third in rotation ERA in 2015. However, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel wilted down the stretch, and adding another top-tier starter to pair with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the rotation would give Chicago a highly formidable postseason rotation.

Price is coming off a dominant season split between Detroit and Toronto in which he logged a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 40.4 ground-ball rate in 220 1/3 innings. Because he was ineligible for a qualifying offer due to this summer’s trade, Price won’t require a new club to forfeit a draft pick upon signing him.

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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays David Price

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Cubs Acquire Rex Brothers

By Steve Adams | November 25, 2015 at 1:05pm CDT

The Cubs announced today that they have acquired left-handed reliever Rex Brothers from the Rockies in exchange for minor league lefty Wander Cabrera. Brothers, who was designated for assignment last week, will be added to the Cubs’ 40-man roster.

The 27-year-old Brothers once looked like a potential stalwart in the Colorado bullpen and perhaps even the team’s future closer. The former No. 34 overall draft pick (2009) pitched to a combined 2.82 ERA with 218 strikeouts in 175 2/3 innings for the Rockies from 2011-13 and totaled 19 saves in that ’13 season. His 11.2 K/9 rate in that time was enough to help him offset sub-par control (4.8 B/9 rate), but his problems locating the ball have worsened significantly in the past two seasons.

Brothers has walked 47 hitters in his past 66 2/3 Major League innings and in fact spent most of the 2015 season at Triple-A, where his control was even worse. Though Brothers fanned a highly impressive 61 batters in 42 1/3 innings this season, he also issued a woeful 44 walks — more than one per inning. The Cubs will look to find the source of his location troubles in an effort to get him back on the right track to being a long-term bullpen piece. Brothers is arbitration eligible this winter, so the Cubs will have to make a relatively minor financial gamble as a result of this move. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $1.5MM salary for Brothers based on his pre-arb work, though that sum is less consequential to the Cubs than to many other teams. If Brothers turns it around in Chicago, he can be controlled through 2018.

In return, the Rockies will receive Cabrera, a Dominican left-hander that just turned 18 earlier this month. Cabrera’s first season of pro ball was 2015, in which he logged a 2.34 ERA with a 47-to-23 K/BB ratio in 42 1/3 innings playing in the Dominican Summer League. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper notes (via Twitter) that Cabrera received a $250K signing bonus from the Cubs in 2014. He features a 92 mph fastball (plenty of velocity for a lefty) and a “usable” curveball at present, per Cooper.

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Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies Transactions Rex Brothers

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Indians Acquire Kirby Yates, Designate Michael Choice

By Steve Adams | November 25, 2015 at 12:50pm CDT

The Indians have acquired recently designated right-hander Kirby Yates from the Rays in exchange for cash considerations and designated outfielder Michael Choice for assignment to clear room on the 40-man roster, tweets MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian.

Yates, 29 in March, enjoyed a solid rookie campaign in 2014 when he logged a 3.75 ERA with a robust 10.5 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. He couldn’t replicate that in his age-28 season, however, due largely to an incredible amount of home runs allowed. Yates is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, but nearly one third of the balls put in the air against him left the yard this past season (30.3 percent). Extreme fly-ball pitcher or not, that rate is nearly unheard of and is almost certain to regress in the future. However, the poor results left Yates with a 7.97 ERA due to yielding 10 homers in 20 1/3 innings.

Choice is a former top 100 prospect with the A’s that never fully panned out. Traded by Oakland to the Rangers in exchange for Craig Gentry, Choice batted just .188/.253/.320 in parts of three seasons between the two teams. Texas designated him for assignment this winter before Cleveland claimed him off waivers. Choice is a career .271/.356/.426 hitter in parts of three seasons at Triple-A and is still relatively young, having turned 26 just two weeks ago.

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Cleveland Guardians Milwaukee Brewers Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Kirby Yates

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A’s Designate Daniel Coulombe, Release A.J. Griffin

By Steve Adams | November 25, 2015 at 12:46pm CDT

The Athletics have designated left-hander Daniel Coulombe for assignment and released right-hander A.J. Griffin, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Coulombe’s DFA clears space on the 40-man roster for today’s acquisition of Jed Lowrie, whereas Griffin’s release serves as resolution to his own DFA from last week.

Coulombe, 26, split the 2015 campaign between the Dodgers and A’s, logging 16 total innings with a 5.63 ERA and an 11-to-9 K/BB ratio. He showed a greater penchant for strikeouts at the Triple-A level, whiffing 41 hitters in 41 1/3 innings, but his control problems existed in Triple-A as well, as evidenced by his average of 5.2 walks per nine innings there in 2015.

Griffin’s name is a more familiar one for fans from Oakland and around the league in general. The now 28-year-old spent a season and a half in the Athletics’ rotation from 2012-13, recording a 3.60 ERA with 7.5 K.9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 282 1/3 innings. Though Griffin surrendered an alarming 36 homers in 2013, he threw exactly 200 innings of 3.83 ERA ball and looked to be settling into Oakland’s future as a back-of-the-rotation starter. However, Griffin underwent Tommy John surgery in Spring Training 2014 and returned for just 14 1/3 minor league innings this season before going down to a shoulder injury.

If he can demonstrate his health, Griffin represents a somewhat intriguing buy-low candidate — particularly for a team with a large home park, which would help to offset some of the right-hander’s extreme fly-ball tendencies.

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Oakland Athletics Transactions A.J. Griffin Jed Lowrie

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Try The Free MLBTR Newsletter

By Tim Dierkes | November 25, 2015 at 11:25am CDT

Thousands of people are reading the free MLBTR Newsletter each week; why not give it a try? We’ll deliver an exclusive article to your inbox  – no strings attached! I’ll be weighing in on deals, rumors, and all the hot stove-related topics MLBTR has been known for since I launched the site a decade ago. These articles will be exclusive to MLBTR Newsletter subscribers and will not appear on the website. I may also provide occasional updates on what’s next for MLBTR. It’s completely free.  This week’s newsletter, coming out this afternoon, explores whether Rick Porcello’s extension is relevant to free agent starters Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, and Jeff Samardzija.

I’ll be honored if you give us your email address and join the thousands of MLBTR readers already enjoying the Newsletter. We will never sell your email address or market anything to the mailing list, and you can unsubscribe easily. Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link.

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Athletics Acquire Jed Lowrie

By Steve Adams | November 25, 2015 at 10:46am CDT

The Athletics announced on Wednesday that they have re-acquired infielder Jed Lowrie from the division-rival Astros in exchange for minor league right-hander Brendan McCurry.

Jed Lowrie

Lowrie, 32 in April, signed a three-year, $23MM contract with the Astros last offseason. He’s been with Oakland or Houston each season dating back to 2012, although the circumstances are certainly unique. The Astros acquired Lowrie in a trade with the Red Sox prior to the 2012 season, and Houston sent him to Oakland that winter in exchange for Chris Carter, Brad Peacock and Max Stassi. After a nice two years in Oakland, Lowrie signed the three-year deal with Houston last winter, but the emergence of Carlos Correa made him a bit superfluous for the Astros, thus leading to today’s trade.

Lowrie is owed $15MM over the next two seasons, including a $7.5MM salary in 2016 and a $6.5MM salary in 2017. His contract comes with a $6MM team option for the 2018 season that includes a $1MM buyout.

In 2015, Lowrie batted .222/.312/.400 with nine home runs, playing mostly third base but also logging some time at shortstop as well. Lowrie got off to a blistering start in 2015, hitting .300/.432/.567 through April 27 before suffering a torn ligament in his right thumb that required surgery. That injury kept Lowrie out of action through July 30, and while it wasn’t reasonable to expect him to maintain his April production, the injury likely sapped his production over the final two months. Lowrie hit just .194/.265/.341 after being activated, and the immediate impact made by Correa cost him his role as the team’s everyday shortstop, hence the shift to third base. With an offseason of rest under his belt, better 2016 production could be expected from Lowrie, who can help the A’s at any of the four infield positions.

The capacity in which Lowrie will be deployed by the A’s is unclear. Marcus Semien was the team’s primary shortstop in 2015, but his 35 errors were the most in the Major Leagues by a player at any position. Danny Valencia hit well enough in 2015 (.284/.356/.530) that Oakland seems likely to want to get him regular at-bats. Third base is probably the best spot for Valencia, but the A’s also have Brett Lawrie as an option at the hot corner. Lawrie, of course, has plenty of experience at second base (thus raising the possibility of a Lawrie/Lowrie double-play tandem), but some feel that Semien may ultimately end up playing second base. Lowrie could serve as a left-handed complement to Mark Canha at first base as well, considering that Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle recently tweeted that Ike Davis is likely to be non-tendered by Oakland.

McCurry, 23, was Oakland’s 22nd-round pick in the 2014 draft and rode a strong showing in 2015 to the No. 30 rank on MLB.com’s list of top Athletics prospects. The Oklahoma State product split the year between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, compiling a 1.86 ERA with 11.7 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. In total, McCurry has a 1.37 ERA in 91 2/3 innings as a pro (all coming out of the bullpen), although it should be noted that he hasn’t been moved through the system all that aggressively and has been more experienced than much of the competition that he’s faced. MLB.com notes that McCurry can spot a fastball that tops out at 93 mph on either side of the plate. His best pitch is a curveball, and while his upside is probably only that of a middle reliever, he has a high probability of realizing that potential due to his control and ability to succeed regardless of opponent handedness.

MLB.com’s Jane Lee was the first to report that Lowrie was headed back to the A’s (Twitter link).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Oakland Athletics Transactions Jed Lowrie

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