Forecasting The Free Agent Qualifying Offer Market
With six weeks of regular season and the entire postseason still to come, there’s obviously a lot of time for this winter’s free agents to improve (or, unfortunately, lower) their stock in the open market. There’s also the fact that the qualifying offer as we know it could be altered if the league and the players’ union come to terms on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement within the next month or so, as several players and agents have voiced concerns about how the current QO system can adversely impact a free agent’s market. (Though even if that occurs, it may not come into effect for the coming offseason.)
But hey, it’s never too early for some speculation, right? Last offseason saw a record 20 players receive qualifying offers, and for the first time, some of them (Colby Rasmus, Brett Anderson, Matt Wieters) accepted the one-year contracts rather than hit free agency. Anderson and Wieters were hoping to have healthier seasons in 2016 that would lead to richer multi-year deals this offseason, while Rasmus simply seemed to want to stay in Houston because he so enjoyed the environment, particularly in the wake of some clubhouse issues with other teams in his career. With teams and players both seemingly becoming more comfortable with the QO, it will undoubtedly once again play a big factor in several free agent cases this year.
A quick recap: the qualifying offer is a one-year contract (this year expected to be worth $16.7MM) that a team can offer to any of its own free agents. The QO must be issued within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, and if the player accepts, he remains with the team. If he rejects it and ends up signing elsewhere, the team will get compensation in the form of a bonus draft pick after the first round. The team signing the QO free agent will have to surrender a first-round draft pick (or a second-rounder, if the team owns protected a top-10 draft selection), and teams who sign multiple QO free agents will have to give up their top pick in a later round. For instance, the Tigers held the #9 overall pick in the 2016 draft, so when they signed Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton last offseason, they kept their first-rounder and surrendered their second- and third-round choices. Teams re-signing players who declined qualifying offers lose the chance to add that compensatory selection.
Since a qualifying offer can only be issued to a player who has been on a team’s roster for an entire season, several pending free agents who were moved at the trade deadline won’t have to worry about draft pick compensation hanging over their markets. This applies to such notable names as Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, Mark Melancon, Rich Hill and Steve Pearce, all of whom would’ve ranged from locks to decent bets to receive qualifying offers.
It’s not impossible that one of the remaining names cited is also traded, though it’s pretty unlikely given that most of them are playing for pennant contenders and those who aren’t would likely be blocked during the August trade waiver process. So with this in mind, let’s look at who could be weighing a one-year, $16.7MM contract after the season…
West Notes: Crisp, Sardinas, Dickerson, Padres, Paxton
Veteran Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp says that he believes the team is artificially holding down his playing time to prevent his option from vesting, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Crisp says that he’s “extremely hurt” by the team’s “shady” handling of the situation. While GM David Forst and manager Bob Melvin have stated that Crisp is sitting against lefties to afford younger players more exposure, he sees more to it — particularly since he is not being used much off the bench. Crisp’s $13MM option vests at 130 games played; entering today’s action, he had appeared in 93 contests, meaning he’d need to take the field for most of the club’s remaining 43 games to reach the threshold. “I’m healthy, I’m playing hard and this has surprised me,” said Crisp, who noted that he has loved playing in Oakland. “This calls their integrity into question, it’s very sad.” The 36-year-old, who owns a .239/.307/.410 slash on the year, indicated that he may not be interested in playing after this season, adding: “The business side sure makes it hard to love the game, and I’ve loved the game since I was six years old.”
Here’s more from out west:
- The Padres seemingly intend to give just-acquired infielder Luis Sardinas a good run late this year, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. Though he hasn’t hit much at Triple-A or the majors thus far in 2016, Sardinas has a solid pedigree — as club GM A.J. Preller well knows having signed him as an amateur. “I don’t think we [acquired] him to relegate him to Triple-A the rest of the year,” said manager Andy Green.
- One Padres player who has thrived upon receiving an opportunity is 26-year-old outfielder Alex Dickerson, who entered the day with a .280/.319/.528 slash and seven home runs over 135 plate appearances. Lin writes that there’s more concern over Dickerson’s glove than his bat, though Green also suggests he has been better than the defensive metrics might suggest. Still, the exciting element of Dickerson’s game is his work on offense. “The way he sees the ball, his plate discipline, he’s a guy that could easily have a 10 percent walk rate to go along with the way he hits, the power numbers he puts up,” said Green. “I’m very pleased with what he’s shown early in his major league career and have every expectation he’ll keep improving.”
- It was reported recently that Major League Baseball is looking into the Padres‘ provision of medical information in a pair of recent trades. The initial review, at least, is expected to wrap up this week, Lin tweets. It remains largely unclear whether there’s any possibility of punitive measures being taken against the team, or whether the review is focused more on arriving at a standard approach to swapping health documents for all teams.
- Mariners lefty James Paxton has been scratched from his next scheduled start, as Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports, and could be headed to the DL. Though Paxton wants to pitch, and the team no doubt wants to give him the ball, manager Scott Servais says that the prudent course is further rest. Forearm soreness is almost always scary, but in this case it resulted not from a throwing injury but a line drive. Regardless, Seattle will hope to get the southpaw back in action as soon as reasonably possible. The 27-year-old appears to be harnessing his talent at an opportune time for a Mariners team that is trying to make a run at a Wild Card, if not the AL West title. Over his 81 2/3 innings on the year, Paxton owns a 3.53 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9, and he has been even better of late.
AL Central Notes: Sano, Berrios, Salazar, Fulmer
Twins third baseman Miguel Sano‘s MRI on his right elbow came back clean today, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The 23-year-old slugger has been playing through some soreness in his elbow that has impacted his throwing in recent weeks, he revealed over the weekend, but the issue appears to be minor in nature. Sano told reporters that the elbow is feeling better today, and he’ll have the opportunity to rest it with an off-day in the schedule. Sano has struggled tremendously at third base since opening the year in right field and then being shifted back to the hot corner, but his bat has come to life lately. Over his past 18 games, Sano is hitting .297/.368/.622 with six home runs.
More from the AL Central…
- Fellow top young Twins talent Jose Berrios is receiving plenty of organizational attention as he struggles to complete his transition to the game’s highest level, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Even Hall-of-Famer and current TV analyst Bert Blyleven has chipped in as the team looks to get Berrios on track. Though he has long shown ample polish in the minors, the 22-year-old has uncharacteristically permitted 14 walks in his 28 big league frames, coughing up 29 earned runs on 39 hits — including seven long balls. On the positive side, he is still getting plenty of swings and misses with thirty punch-outs. Among the issues being explored are fastball command and tipping of offspeed pitches, per the report. Minnesota is relying heavily upon the development of players like Berrios, Sano, and Byron Buxton, and their current record reflects the uneven recent path of those hyped youngsters (among other players).
- The Indians plan for right-hander Danny Salazar to come off the disabled list on Thursday to start against the White Sox, manager Terry Francona told reporters, including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. Cleveland placed Salazar on the disabled list back on Aug. 2 due to inflammation in his right elbow, but the issues appears to have been minor in nature, as an Aug. 18 activation would represent a very minimal DL stint. Salazar has thrown all of his pitches to test his elbow and feels ready to get back onto a big league mound, though the Indians will be cautious with him. Francona and pitching coach Mickey Callaway said Salazar won’t be cleared to throw 100 pitches right out of the gate. Rather, he could be piggybacked, to some extent, with right-hander Mike Clevinger, who will move to the bullpen upon Salazar’s return.
- Even as the Tigers continue to push hard for a post-season berth, the club faces tough impending questions on rising young righty Michael Fulmer. As Lynn Henning of the Detroit News writes, the organization still hasn’t decided precisely how to manage his workload with both the present and future in mind. The 23-year-old has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations in his rookie campaign, spinning 120 innings of 2.25 ERA pitching. But with his minor league frames included, he is already moving past his previous single-season high of 124 2/3 total innings pitched. Though manager Brad Ausmus notes that Fulmer doesn’t tend to run high pitch counts and isn’t throwing many high-stress frames, it appears that several skipped starts will be required to keep him on the bump down the stretch — and that’s all before considering a potential playoff berth.
Jed Lowrie To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie will undergo surgery to remove a bunion and repair a ligament in his left foot, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to report (links to Twitter). He is expected to miss the remainder of the season as a result of the procedure.
The veteran infielder has struggled with the problem for some time, and attempts to battle through it failed. He’ll have the work done now in hopes of having plenty of time to recover in advance of Spring Training next year.
Lowrie, 32, had seemed like a viable trade candidate prior to the foot problem and related struggles. He had been hitting at a fairly typical, roughly league-average clip before suffering through a rough month of July. As things stand, Lowrie owns a .263/.314/.322 batting line over 369 plate appearances on the year. Acquired over the winter to help anchor the Oakland infield, Lowrie has also posted below-average defensive ratings.
There’s no question that the foot malady has played a role, as reporters have documented how much of an impact it has had. Hopefully for both player and team, he’ll be able to return to full health in advance of the 2017 campaign. Lowrie is set to earn $6.5MM next year and can be controlled for an additional season with a $6MM club option, which comes with a $1MM buyout.
Shin-Soo Choo Suffers Fractured Forearm
Rangers outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is hitting the DL with a fractured left forearm, according to an announcement from VP of communications John Blake. The tough-luck injury occurred on a hit-by-pitch.
Given that it’s mid-August, it’s certainly possible that Choo’s latest injury could keep him out for the rest of the season. After all, Jon Jay is still on the DL after breaking his forearm nearly two months ago. And Rangers catcher Robinson Chirinos missed two months with his own, similar injury.
That sort of timetable makes a post-season return possible, though that may be a tall ask if Choo doesn’t have a chance to rehab in live game action. And it isn’t yet clear whether Choo will require a full two months; we’ll need to wait to learn of his particular prognosis.
Regardless, it’s a big blow to Texas and to Choo. It seems that Ryan Rua will take his spot on the active roster, and the club also has slugger Joey Gallo available. Those two will be useful replacements, as will Delino DeShields Jr., and Drew Stubbs, and the club can mix and match at its leisure once rosters expand in September.
But Choo remains a strong on-base threat at 34 years of age, and is especially excellent against right-handed pitching (despite carrying reverse platoon splits in his limited action this year), making him a difficult player to replace. It just hasn’t been meant to be this year, as he has now hit the DL on four separate occasions for a variety of ailments. Texas has already needed to find replacements for Josh Hamilton (Ian Desmond) and Prince Fielder (Carlos Beltran) earlier in the year.
If the Rangers do take to the market once more, they’ll have a few options, as MLBTR’s top twenty current trade candidates list shows. Melky Cabrera would represent a rather similar player, though the Rangers may not love the idea of taking over his future commitments. Brett Gardner and Nick Markakis are other potential left-handed-hitting options. Carlos Gomez can be had, though he’s an uncertain commodity and hits from the right side.
Looking past the present campaign, Choo remains a somewhat frustrating player for the Rangers. He carries a useful .259/.361/.422 slash over 1,377 plate appearances since signing before the 2014 season. But that’s not quite what the team hoped to receive out of the first three of seven years in his huge contract. Choo is still owed $82MM over the remainder of that pact.
Garrett Richards Resumes Throwing
It’s not often that news relating to an ulnar collateral ligament is promising, but it certainly seems as if there’s now real hope that Angels righty Garrett Richards can avoid Tommy John surgery. The staff ace’s latest trip to the doctor revealed sufficient healing that he can begin throwing, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times was among those to report (Twitter links).
Richards did indeed pick up the ball today, making 25 tosses from 45 feet. He says that it felt like the first day of spring camp — which seemingly represents yet another sign of hope. Presumably, his throwing program will be heavily dependent upon how he feels and will proceed at a measured pace.
While there are still many hurdles remaining for the 28-year-old, it is remarkable that he has made it this far in his endeavor to avoid going under the knife. At the time that Richards’s UCL tear was first reported, in early May, the assumption was that he was headed for a procedure. While some minor tears don’t require surgery, his was initially seen as a clear case.
It was surprising, then, when the news emerged that Richards — as well as lefty Andrew Heaney — would attempt a platelet-rich plasma and stem cell treatment. By not immediately undertaking a TJ procedure, Richards sacrificed any chance of returning for the end of next season if he did ultimately have it performed. But he also gained the possibility, however slight it seemed, of pitching a full 2017 season.
Heaney chose the same path, but ultimately did not show sufficient improvement and ended up with a replacement UCL. But Richards has continued to respond to the treatment, saying recently that his arm feels great. It still remained to be seen whether and when his doctors would clear him to throw, but he finally was allowed to do so with promising results.
While it is certainly fantastic news that Richards has reached this point, the true tests are yet to come. The expectation is that he’ll try to build up towards competitive action this fall — perhaps including a stint in the Arizona Fall League. If Richards can stay on that track and return to full mound work in live game action, then there would be sufficient confidence in the ligament that he’d look to prepare for Spring Training in 2017.
The stakes remain high for both player and team. Indeed, if anything, they are increasing. If he were to swap out UCLs within the next month or two, he’d likely be ready for the start of the 2018 campaign. If he ultimately needs it at a later date — say, early next year — then much of that season could too be in jeopardy.
In spite of the downside, it’s hard not to see the reasoning behind the decisionmaking. For Richards, a return to health now would mean a chance not only to return to action in short order, but also to earn a slight bump on his $6.425MM arbitration salary rather than potentially hitting the open market following a non-tender.
For the Halos, it’s an opportunity to reap the rewards of Richards’s highly valuable pre-free agent seasons. Even if he had gone through with the surgery in May, it would have been difficult to tender him a contract for each of the next two years just in hopes that he’d be ready to go for the start of the 2018 season — his final campaign before qualifying for free agency.
After all, a healthy Richards represents a powerful, top-of-the-rotation piece for a Los Angeles team that badly needs one. Working off of a mid-to-upper-nineties fastball, Richards has nudged his swinging strike rate upward in recent years while generally limiting the damage on balls put in play against him with a solid groundball rate. Since the start of his breakout 2014 season, Richards has worked to a 3.11 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 410 2/3 innings.
This story is notable even beyond what it means for Richards and the Angels. It scarcely bears mentioning that the fragility of the ulnar collateral ligament has been a major issue in baseball in recent years. Numerous high-profile hurlers have succumbed to the surgery, and while its success rate remains quite high, it’s no sure thing — and also represents a major risk factor for another such procedure. If Richards’s seemingly novel treatment works out, it could provide an alternative in appropriate cases.
Diamondbacks Designate Adam Loewen
The Diamondbacks have designated lefty Adam Loewen for assignment, per a club announcement. Arizona has also activated catcher Welington Castillo and recalled southpaw Edwin Escobar.
Loewen, 32, has seen big league action as a starter, an outfielder, and — most recently — a reliever. He struggled through six innings for the D-Backs during a brief stint, allowing ten earned runs while issuing six walks and recording only three strikeouts.
The multi-functional ballplayer had been much more effective at Triple-A this year, where he recorded a 3.52 ERA in 38 1/3 innings and racked up 9.6 K/9. On the other hand, he also handed out a troubling 28 free passes in that span, continuing a longstanding battle with control.
Loewen was taken with the fourth overall pick in the 2002 draft by the Orioles. He showed promise as a starter in the Baltimore farm system, but was never able to stick at the major league level. Loewen switched to the position-player side in 2009, and again moved through the minor league ranks — this time with the Blue Jays. Despite posting a .306/.377/.508 slash in 585 Triple-A plate appearances in 2011, though, he earned only a brief big league cameo as a hitter that year and eventually moved back to the rubber.
Knocking Down The Door: Alcantara, Cecchini, Cotton, Cowart, Holder, Schultz
This week’s installment of Knocking Down the Door features thee starting pitchers, two of whom combined for 16 shutout innings and 23 strikeouts in their last starts. Also making appearances are a reliever who began the season in High-A and a pair of infielders who were both former 1st Round draft picks.
Raul Alcantara and Jharel Cotton, SP, Oakland Athletics (Triple-A Nashville)
Ross Detwiler might have bought himself several more starts in the A’s rotation after last week’s masterpiece (8 IP, 0 R, 6 H, 0 BB, 2 K), but Andrew Triggs and Zach Neal haven’t earned the chance to stick around much longer. As a result, it’s a good time to be pitching well down in Triple-A Nashville, where Raul Alcantara and Jharel Cotton have each positioned themselves to be next in line for a big league start.
While the 23-year-old Alcantara is probably reaching the end of the line for his 2016 workload—he’s at 120.2 innings after making only 18 starts in 2014-15 because of injuries—the A’s could probably squeeze one or two more starts out of him. The way he’s pitched since a promotion to Triple-A (0.59 ERA, 30.2 IP, 20 H, 3 BB, 22 K), it wouldn’t be a bad idea if he made those starts with the big league club.
Cotton, acquired from the Dodgers in the Josh Reddick/Rich Hill trade, has made an outstanding early impression on his new organization. After allowing a run and six hits while striking out five batters over six innings in his Nashville debut, the 24-year-old right-hander turned it up a few notches in his second start when he tossed a one-hit shutout with no walks and 12 strikeouts. At 112.1 innings on the season, it wouldn’t be a major surprise if Cotton is added to the rotation before the end of the month and is able to make at least 2-3 starts before he’s shut down.
Gavin Cecchini, SS, New York Mets (Triple-A Las Vegas)
It was T.J. Rivera who finally got the call to help a struggling big league team last week. While that was very much deserved, his former teammate, shortstop Gavin Cecchini, is still waiting for the call despite being just as deserving.
Jose Reyes‘ return from the disabled list probably won’t help, but the 22-year-old Cecchini is making it difficult for the Mets to overlook him much longer. With 17 hits in his last 44 at-bats, the former 1st Round pick has his slash line up to .318/.387/.440 on the season. The scouting reports say he might not be good enough to be a big league regular down the road. His performance in the upper minors the past two seasons (.300+ batting average, .800+ OPS, 83 BB, 99 K), however, tells us that he should at least be given a long look against Major League pitching before determining that.
If the Mets fall any further back in the playoff race, they’ll need to look ahead to 2017. In either case, it would be a good time to see what they have in Cecchini.
Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels (Triple-A Salt Lake)
The Angels might be the worst team in baseball right now. Looking to the future is difficult with the pitching staff in shambles due to elbow injuries and possibly the thinnest farm system in baseball. Still, they need to find out if there is anyone down there worth auditioning for a job in 2017. Kaleb Cowart is starting to make a case.
The 24-year-old third baseman, who has seen his stock rise and fall drastically a handful of times since he was a 1st Round draftee in 2010, has a .942 OPS in his last 30 games, including a big 3-for-4 day on Sunday with a homer and two doubles. Even if Yunel Escobar and Albert Pujols are locked into the third base and designated hitter spots, respectively, Cowart’s versatility—he’s played 1B, 3B, SS and LF during his professional career—should allow him to play somewhere on a regular basis for the next month-and-a-half.
Jonathan Holder, RP, New York Yankees (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
A funny thing happened after the Yankees deciding to become “sellers” at the trade deadline. They’ve played well enough to stay within striking distance of a playoff spot. Their infusion of young hitting talent could help offset the loss of Carlos Beltran, but they’re extremely thin in the bullpen without Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. If there’s a relief pitcher that’s at least worth a look as someone who can help bridge the gap to Tyler Clippard and Dellin Betances, it’s Jonathan Holder.
The 23-year-old right-hander, who started the season in High-A — where he pitched in 2015 as a starter — has posted a 1.92 ERA with impressive peripherals (5.4 H/9, 1.1 BB/9, 12.8 K/9) in his 37 relief appearances between High-A (2 games), Double-A (28 games) and Triple-A (seven games).
Whether it’s to help a team that’s just hanging on to slim playoff hopes or as an audition for a team that will be shopping for bullpen help this upcoming offseason, Holder has earned himself a trip to the Bronx in the very near future.
Jaime Schultz, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (Triple-A Durham)
It was Matt Andriese that was next in line for a rotation spot when the Rays traded away Matt Moore. Who is next after Andriese isn’t clear, although Jaime Schultz is starting to separate himself from the pack after his last two starts for Triple-A Durham.
After striking out double-digit batters in two of his first 22 starts on the season, the 25-year-old right-hander doubled that total with 10 and 11 strikeouts, respectively, in his last two, which included eight shutout innings on Saturday. With Andriese getting knocked around in his last two major league outings, we could find out soon if Schultz, who has a 3.02 ERA to go along with 4.4 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9, has done enough to get the call.
“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.
Brewers Acquire Michael McKenry
The Brewers announced today that they’ve acquired veteran catcher Michael McKenry from the Braves and assigned him to Triple-A Colorado Springs. While the Brewers’ announcement didn’t specify a return, it seems likely that the Braves will get some degree of cash considerations out of the swap.
McKenry, 31, will give the Crew some additional depth behind the plate to pair with the likes of Martin Maldonado, Manny Pina and recently acquired Andrew Susac. McKenry picked up a pair of plate appearances with the Cardinals earlier this season but has spent the bulk of the season playing at Triple-A, where he’s combined to bat .292/.409/.518 in 203 plate appearances with the affiliates for the Braves, Cardinals and Rangers.
Though his time in the Majors has been limited this year, McKenry comes with a great deal of big league experience. The former seventh-round pick debuted with the Rockies back in 2010 and has appeared in each MLB season since, averaging 60 games per year from 2011-15. All told, he’s a .238/.318/.406 hitter with 29 homers in 953 plate appearances as a Major Leaguer.
Spokesman: A-Rod Will Not Play Again In 2016
There’s been sufficient speculation about the possibility of Alex Rodriguez signing with another team now that he’s formally cleared release waivers — the Marlins, most notably, have been mentioned — but Rodriguez’s publicist, Ron Berkowitz, has released a statement definitively stating that said scenario will not come to fruition. Via Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News (links to Feinsand on Twitter):
“I want to put all this talk to rest about Alex playing for any team this season. It’s not happening. Like he said Friday night, he is happy and he is going to take some time to relax and hang with his family and friends.”
It should be noted that Berkowitz specifically references the current season only, suggesting that he’s not willing to rule out the possibility of Rodriguez pursuing a contract — and his 700th career home run — in a new uniform next season. That would seem to open up a number of additional opportunities for Rodriguez, as there are potentially American League clubs that would be open to an opportunity for A-Rod over the winter that don’t feel they have a roster spot to spare in the midst of a playoff push.
Rodriguez, 41, played his final game with the Yankees on Friday night and will reportedly transition to an advisor/instructor role with the organization. He batted .200/.247/.351 with nine home runs in 243 plate appearances this season, leaving him with 696 long balls in his historic career.