It wasn’t long ago that the Reds seemed to have an infield surplus. That has changed quickly. The Jeimer Candelario signing was a bust. Jonathan India was traded to Kansas City. Noelvi Marte tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance in Spring Training 2024. Matt McLain sustained significant shoulder and rib injuries and missed all of last year. First basemen Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer regressed, with Encarnacion-Strand’s stock completely tanking when he underwent wrist surgery in July ’24.
Cincinnati has needed to turn to trade a few times. They acquired glove-first utilityman Santiago Espinal in Spring Training last year. Gavin Lux was brought in as a lefty-hitting utility piece last offseason. Lux has been an average hitter and will be due an arbitration raise on this year’s $3.325MM salary. Espinal hasn’t hit at all and will probably be non-tendered in his final arbitration season. Cincinnati went back to the trade market this summer, taking on the final four and a half years on Ke’Bryan Hayes’ contract to land him from the Pirates. He’s now the starting third baseman, moving Marte to what appears to a full-time corner outfield role.
Elly De La Cruz and Hayes should be settled on the left side of the infield. Neither spot on the right side is established. Steer shouldn’t be playing every day on a contender. That might also be true of McLain, whose return from injury has been a major disappointment.
The former first-round pick carries a .221/.299/.329 batting line in 120 games. McLain came out of the gate on fire, homering in three straight games within the season’s first weekend. He has eight home runs in nearly five months since then. He’s hitting .217/.295/.305 in 464 plate appearances since the beginning of April. By measure of wRC+, he’s among the ten least productive hitters in that time (as are Hayes and Espinal).
It hasn’t cost McLain much playing time. That’s in part because of their lack of alternatives. They’d presumably have been more willing to play Espinal if he’d been hitting any better. McLain has dropped to the bottom third of the lineup after hitting second for a good chunk of the season. He looked like a legitimate building block two seasons ago. He finished fifth in Rookie of the Year balloting after hitting 16 homers with a .290/.357/.507 slash in 89 games. Then came last year’s injury-ruined season and this year’s dramatic downturn.
Some of the regression was foreseeable. McLain was never going to repeat the .385 average on balls in play that he had as a rookie. The Reds presumably also expected some rust after the year off. His strikeout and walk profile hasn’t changed much, but he’s doing far less damage on contact. He’s hitting fewer line drives and more lazy fly balls.
There’s also no sign that McLain is turning things around as he gets further removed from the injuries. Excluding his four-day tear in March, he’s been a below-average hitter in every month except June. His numbers have bottomed out over the past few weeks. McLain is hitting .217 with one extra-base knock (a double) and 24 strikeouts in 69 plate appearances in August.
Cincinnati doesn’t have many other options for the final month of the season. The only real alternative would be to play Lux more frequently at second base to open DH at-bats for Miguel Andujar. There’s a defensive downgrade from McLain to Lux and questions about whether Andujar would continue to hit as well as he has if he plays every day rather than getting heavy usage against left-handed pitching. The front office will have a tougher decision on whether to look outside the organization in the offseason.
McLain turned 26 earlier this month. He’s under arbitration control for four more seasons. As recently as this spring, the Reds viewed him as a core piece. McLain told Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer in April that the team approached with a preliminary extension framework before Opening Day. Talks didn’t get anywhere as both sides waited to see how McLain would perform after losing the ’24 season. It’s fair to say the Reds won’t be eager to revisit extension talks now, but it’s not known to what extent they might’ve soured on his long-term projection.
They have a few upper minors infielders who could push for playing time in 2026. Sal Stewart has hit 20 homers with a combined .309/.385/.528 slash between the top two minor league levels in his age-21 season. He’s a promising offensive player but faces questions from scouts about his position. Stewart has played mostly third base in the minors. He has started 15 games at second base this season after making 36 appearances there a year ago. Prospect evaluators consider him a below-average athlete, runner and defender. Do the Reds think he could be a viable if fringy second baseman, or is he more of an option to push Steer for first base reps?
There’s the opposite question with Edwin Arroyo. He’s a gifted defensive shortstop who may have a limited offensive ceiling. Arroyo lost all of 2024 to his own shoulder surgery. He has returned to put together a solid season in Double-A. He’s hitting .289/.351/.380 with good plate discipline metrics but only has three home runs. The Reds will put him on the 40-man roster this offseason, but he has yet to see any Triple-A action. Arroyo shouldn’t have any issue sliding over to second base defensively. He probably wouldn’t make a huge impact at the plate as a rookie.
Tyler Callihan made his MLB debut earlier this season. He broke his wrist crashing into the outfield wall while playing left field in his fourth MLB game. Callihan required season-ending surgery. He can compete for an Opening Day roster spot next spring and is viewed as a bat-first player who’s probably better suited for left field than second base.
The Reds probably don’t want to count on any of Stewart, Arroyo or Callihan out of the gate. They’ll need to decide whether to give McLain another shot or to add someone in free agency or trade. Gleyber Torres is the top free agent at the position. He might be attached to draft pick compensation as a qualifying offer candidate. Signing him would have echoes of the Mike Moustakas/Candelario deals that have flopped on the Reds in the past.
They could take a flier on bat-first utilityman Luis Rengifo. Trade options at the position include Brandon Lowe ($11.5MM club option), Ozzie Albies ($7MM club option), Luis García Jr. (likely $6-7MM arbitration salary), and Lenyn Sosa (pre-arbitration). India will probably be available in free agency with the Royals likely to non-tender him, but that’s only because he’s coming off a replacement level season with Kansas City.
Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images.
Lux has one more year
No matter what you say about Steer it’s a lot of bull.
Nolan McLean > Matt McLain
For now
It seems impossible that all those options could all fizzle out for various reasons so varied it’s ridiculous but here they are all the same. I don’t even think Vegas could put odds on it.
I do remember Reds fans planning trades, using their infield surplus, to solidify other areas to assure their dominance in the NL Central for the next half-decade…
Let us dream! It’s the only thing we have.
Will do, King…hahaha
The nerve of doing what fans do.
Meh…
I remember too. I kept a full spreadsheet with poster names, dates, and word counts!
Hahahaha…right on, Soto!
The Reds need to add offense an offensive piece somewhere and can move their other players around the field accordingly.
The most straightforward addition would be an OF/DH type (or two). In which case the combination of Steer, Lux and Stewart can handle the right side of the infield, with McLain given a shot to earn his way back over the remainder of this season or from AAA.
Is it really fair to say Steer “regressed” when his numbers are on par with last season’s? He may have “plateaued” but unless he falls short of last season it’s not really regressing
Regression is often misused as a synonym for declining, when its real meaning is a return to a previous state. So when a player performing below average brings their performance back to average, by definition he has also “regressed.” I don’t understand why, but sportswriters seem allergic to simply saying that a player is getting worse, or not better. Or whatever. Either way, the fancy word doesn’t describe the situation — at least not correctly.
Which i get, but in Steer’s specific case his numbers are about where they were last season so he hasn’t gotten better but he hasn’t gotten worse either
Yes, that too.
I always thought regression in baseball was referring to regression to the mean. And since all MLB players are playing far above the mean regression always implies a player’s performance is getting worse.
Regression or no, Steer has been hurt all year, and McLain lost an entire year to shoulder surgery, something it took Bellinger and others a full year to recover from. I think neither should be written off for 2026, when they should be healthy, or at least healthier. EDLC is also injured. We should not be writing these guys off (though of course no one is doing that for EDLC.) What we really need is a 30 HR left fielder and/or DH.
Maybe, just maybe Francona can coax ownership to spend by keeping the Reds competitive. Bring Suarez back next winter and just let him swing it as a DH/part-time 3B
In statistical terms, this is exactly what regression “means.” The way you put it is the Lake Woebegone Effect (“where all the children are above average”). This is a joke, not reality.
So statically, a player whose performance improves or declines towards their mean performance has regressed. By definition, the term covers both. The fact that it is used improperly so often doesn’t change the word’s meaning, only the understanding of its meaning.
An yes, I realize hardly anybody cares.
BSLA
You’re correct about regression
But
“The fact that it is used improperly so often doesn’t change the word’s meaning, ”
The way people use a word is it’s meaning. What else could it be? Who creates words and their meanings? The people; by their usage.
Anne Curzan: What makes a word “real”? | TED Talk share.google/zxWk2yUGklNI37v6r
Yes, the meaning of words can change — frequently from long-term misuse. I can easily think of several that have recently evolved (or devolved) into meaninglessness as a result of careless usage. Often, these turn into total mush words. For instance, can anything still be “iconic” if everything is iconic? Not really, but that doesn’t stop the word from turning up everywhere, abused by lazy writers who don’t seem to know what they are trying to say. Good writing starts by knowing what you mean to say, then finding the best words to say it.
BSLA
“abused by lazy writers who don’t seem to know what they are trying to say. ”
Damn those lazy writers for making us think of new ways to say things instead of what we’ve been using for years
Wait…
Steer has not progressed!
Despite his glove, his bat is not 1B or 3B worthy. The Reds have to get more pop out of the 1B position. That should be a priority this off season. Getting more pop out of 1B, 2B and/or LF. Stewart will fill 1B or 2B leaving the other 2 positions open. Hector Rodriguez might be the answer in LF. At the least, the Reds are going to have to spend some money and/or prospects to get another proven hitter with some pop. If CES could come back and produce with the bat, it would solve their problem without another acquisition. But that remains to be seen.
Singer for tyler soderstrom possible? A’s need pitching. He only moved to LF because nick kurtz but was at first base before. A’s also has infield depth they can toss into the deal like max muncy. Something like soderstrom and muncy or gelof for singer and maxwell seems possible
A’s fan the reds would do that all day but the athletics would hang up
@Rsox Well said. Steer’s #s at the plate are fairly similar other than a BB rate declining. His WAR has drastically declined from the decreased BB’s and playing primarily 1B where the production is not as valuable.
Hayes ? 4 more year, 4 more years…
If the reds were concerned about defense then DeLaCruz would be in center field. I think Strand should be given a full time slot at 1st base to see what he could do. I can see McClain at 2nd base to see if 2025 is just a recovery year from his surgery. I’m wondering if Stewart could handle shortstop with Steer in left, De La Cruz in center and Marte in right. Lux would be reserve with Espinal gone.
They’re not sure Sal can handle the positions he’s already played how could shortstop be the fix?
Shortstop? Lol he can’t play defense so now you want to put him at short? Steer doesn’t have the arm to play outfield. He plays a great first base. If he can hit 20 HRs with a bum shoulder I would put him back at first next year.
Sorry Kid, there’s no way I’d move EDLC into the outfield. People forget he’s only 23 years old. His range is incredible and he has a cannon for an arm. His physical attributes play up much more at SS than in CF. The errors will decrease as he enters his prime. Meanwhile, he’s making plays on an every game basis that other players wouldn’t and can’t make.
Suggesting Stewart be moved to SS shows that you’re not serious about defense. He’s an offense first ball player who you might be able to hide at 1B.
Friedl is a quality CF and should be retained. They need to find an answer in LF this off-season (a slugger) and then they can use internal options to man 2B, 1B, and DH. Andujar should be re-signed.
Moving half the team to new positions will not help the defense.
Great article, the Reds future, at least for the position players side of things, is now extremely dark. A lot of nothing, to say the least.
It’s definitely not the year I at least thought for McLain., he’s been pretty bad…I realize he’s coming off a missed year but I’d have thought at some point earlier this summer he would’ve progressed into the player he had been…I don’t think they should trade him and I do think he’ll need to have a monster spring to prove himself…what I would like to see happen is the Elly at SS saga end with him moving to the OF…not sure they currently have a stud waiting in the wings though Arroyo is definitely considered a superstar defenseman or maybe they spend in FA on Bo Bichette…..they need a bat 2026
“Spend in FA on Bo Bichette” LOL, Bob is not spending that kind of money – ever.
Joey Votto smiles.
You’ve got guys returning from serious injury, guys who have played 8 different positions, nobody is at the position they started with in spring training, but they were expected to win the division. I’m frankly surprised they have done as well as they have. Starting next year you know Elly is your SS, Hayes is your 3rd baseman, Sal Stewart at 2nd, Marte in right field, Trevino at catcher, Stephenson at 1st. All you have open is Center and left field. I would trade Greene while he still has some of the “what if” mystique. Lodolo, Abbott, Singer ( if they resign him) Littell ( if he resigns), Burns, Lowder etc etc. They have the guys they just haven’t jelled yet because they position players have no idea where they are going to play. And if they don’t resign Andujar Krall is an idiot. And I don’t understand why Francona replaces a relief pitcher who is cruising along. It’s not a contest to see how many guys you can run out to the mound on any given night
No I’m sure you are the idiot. They have already said Stephenson can’t play 1st. Trade Greene? I won’t even get into that stupid idea.
And singer is back next year
Well sir, since you decided to open your obviously ignorant mouth and call someone an idiot for voicing an opinion I have to assume you are a mouth breather. Stephenson can play first. He’s said he would on several occasions.He’s done it how many times over the years. Who are this THEY you like to quote? Because my THEY, is better than your THEY and my THEY says he’s a great first baseman.Trade Greene, hell yes. This guy is about as brittle as cheap plastic. How many times has he been on the disabled list? How many games has he pitched in this year? Or last year ? Here’s some news. Guys only break down more as they get older. He’s Homer Bailey 2.0, not the second coming of Tom Seaver. Right now you could get a haul for him, next year, when he’s even older and back on the disabled list his value goes down even further. They should have let him be a shortstop like he was before the Reds made him a full time pitcher. This team will be a good team in time, but you can’t run Rece Hinds, Will Benson, and Matt McClain out there for weeks at a time while they’re hitting below the Mendoza line. So, put on your depends undergarment, your special helmet, grab your peanut butter, Frito, and mayonnaise sandwich, and go get on the short bus to your special school.
Love the high quality baseball discussion here at MLBTR
Juan, sadly this is one of the better discussions on here
JUJU- I agree, but I am tired of being jumped on and called an idiot because I voice an educated opinion. You should be required to pass an intelligence test to post on any social media. I’m sorry you are offended.
Stephenson is no better than Steer at the dish and definitely not as good with the glove. Trade TySteve, Trevino will bridge the gap until Duno is ready.
So the Reds are going to re-sign two mediocre pitchers and deal their ace? Did I read that correctly?
He’s not the ace. He’s a guy who spends more time on the disabled list than on the field. Abbott is better and he stays on the field. Stop reading articles and read some statistics. He’s way to injury prone to be an ACE.
If Greene is an “ace” then we should be able to get that stud left fielder in a trade. Go for it.
Steer is playing Gold Glove Caliber Defense at 1st. He is not going anywhere.
Strand can’t stay healthy.
McLain has a .627 OPS, Andujar has a .765 OPS in 224 plate appearances against righties (OPS is .967 against lefties, overall OPS .814).. Since joining the Reds, his OPS is over 1.000. Other than Andujar, the Reds don’t have a single player with an OPS over .800. It is not clear why Francona doesn’t get him in the lineup more.
With that ballpark it’s surprising reds don’t have anyone over .800 ops
He had been dealing with an injury I believe
Can they teach De La Cruz to field ?
This is another result of the failure to address the problem on offense in the offseason and especially the deadline. The outfield corners especially need addressed and not by putting infielders in the outfield to butcher on defense.
McLain missed a whole year and even though people expected him to pick up where he left off, I had told you all last offseason to not expect too much as he had a severe injury. It is obvious it has messed up his swing observing him this season. He should have went to AAA for a checkup or wake up call long ago.
As far as Steer, he plays brilliant defense at first so he is not going anywhere, plus he has come through in the clutch several times as you can see from his RBI totals.
As a whole, the Reds need to get a lineup full of everyday players and forget the platoon nonsense that has plagued them for several years.
If you think the infield is bad look at the outfield.
Is Elly really locked into the SS position? His defense leaves a lot to be desired there. Am I the only one who thinks it would be wise to see how his speed and arm play in CF.