Dan Jennings To Return As Marlins’ GM
OCT. 9: Jennings will return to his previous role as general manager, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. An announcement could come anytime between Sunday and Tuesday of the coming week, he adds. Jennings is under contract with the Marlins for three more seasons.
OCT. 6: The Marlins have announced that Jennings will not return as the manager, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports (all links to Twitter).
Club president David Samson explained that Jennings is the general manager as he is a “signed member” of the front office. Though president of baseball ops Michael Hill seemingly indicated that Jennings had yet to decide whether to continue that arrangement, Samson said that “there’s no decision for him to make.”
OCt. 4, 8:28pm: A pair of tweets from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests Jennings might return to the Marlins’ front office, but not in the GM position. The Marlins could make Berger GM, with Jeff McAvoy as assistant GM, Arnold as player personnel director and David Keller as pro scouting director. Jennings would then occupy some other position. Frisaro, meanwhile, writes (via Twitter) that the Marlins are planning to establish an analytics department and that Arnold could head it.
8:08pm: The Phillies have granted the Marlins permission to interview bench coach Larry Bowa for their manager position, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com writes. Bowa is expected to interview on Monday, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Bo Porter and Manny Acta have already interviewed for the job. In addition, Frisaro reports that Dan Jennings, who posted a 55-69 record as the team’s manager following the firing of Mike Redmond earlier this season, is expected to return to the Marlins’ GM job.
As of yesterday, Jennings was still deciding whether to accept a return to the Marlins’ front office. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reported that the team’s front office would undergo changes, with assistant GM Mike Berger taking over something resembling a GM position. The Marlins also recently interviewed Rays director of player personnel Matt Arnold about a front office position. It has lately appeared that Jennings’ power in the organization was somewhat diminished. If Jennings does return to the GM position, it’s not clear how the Marlins will manage their decision-making process given the presence Jennings, Berger and other front-office voices.
Bowa, 69, was previously the manager of the Padres and Phillies. He led the Phillies to a 337-308 record from 2001 through 2004 and won the NL Manager of the Year award in 2001. He also served as a base coach for the Yankees and Dodgers and as an analyst for ESPN and the MLB Network before rejoining the Phillies organization in 2014.
Mariners Dismiss Lloyd McClendon, Make Significant Coaching Changes
11:45am: The Mariners have now formally announced that McClendon will not return in 2016. Additionally, pitching coach Rick Waits and coach Chris Prieto have been reassigned within the organization, while bench coach Trent Jewett, third base coach Rich Donnelly, outfield coach Andy Van Slyke and bullpen coach Mike Rojas have all been let go. Hitting coach Edgar Martinez and infield coach Chris Woodward were each invited back for their current roles in 2016.
“I have a great deal of respect for Lloyd, as a person and a manager,” Dipoto said in a statement. “It is a credit to his professionalism that the team continued to play hard through the final day of the season. However, after extensive conversations it became clear to me that our baseball philosophies were not closely aligned. On behalf of the Mariners I want to thank Lloyd and his staff for their hard work the past two seasons, and I wish him the best moving forward.”
10:25am: Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon won’t be back as the team’s manager in 2016, sources tell Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports had written just minutes earlier that McClendon was “likely” to be dismissed as the team’s skipper, adding that he’s still owed $1MM in 2016 — the final season of his contract with Seattle.
The Mariners will formally announce the decision today, per Divish, and the search for McClendon’s replacement will immediately get underway. While the team must go through an interview process, Divish hears that Angels special assistant Tim Bogar — the former bench coach and interim manager of the division-rival Rangers — is a favorite to take over in Seattle. Bogar worked with Dipoto in the Anaheim front office and is said to embrace analytics, which is something Dipoto is known to desire in a manager. Heyman noted last Friday that Bogar would be a prime candidate to replace McClendon should the incumbent Seattle skipper not be retained.
Heyman writes that the decision was carefully considered by Dipoto, in part because McClendon is quite popular with the current Mariners’ players. Robinson Cano is said to have such a close relationship with McClendon, Heyman adds, that Cano used his manager as part of his pitch in trying to lure Nelson Cruz to sign with the team when Cruz was a free agent last offseason.
McClendon was hired as the Mariners’ manager prior to the 2014 season after an eight-year hiatus from that role. After managing some dismal Pirates clubs in the early 2000s, McClendon experienced immediate success in Seattle, guiding the Mariners to a strong 87-75 record and finishing the year just one game shy of postseason play. That finish, along with the offseason additions of Nelson Cruz and Seth Smith as well as the emergence of Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, led to lofty expectations in Seattle this year. However, the Mariners’ rotation was hit hard by injuries to Walker, Paxton and Hisashi Iwakuma, and other offseason pickups such as Justin Ruggiano and Rickie Weeks failed to perform. The Mariner bullpen also took a significant step backwards in 2015, leading to a season that was largely spent out of contention, eventually resulting in the firing of GM Jack Zduriencik.
Central Notes: Pirates, Boyer, Tigers, Chapman, Reds
The Pirates face a significant amount of questions now that their offseason has arrived, writes Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Decisions surrounding Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez top the list, as the team must decide if it can afford to pay Walker his arbitration raise (projected at $10.7MM by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz) and if Alvarez is worth tendering a contract (projected salary: $8.1MM). As Brink notes, Josh Harrison could slide over to second base, with Jung Ho Kang handling third base full-time if healthy enough for Opening Day. Beyond that, the rotation presents a puzzle of sorts as well. Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano are a strong 1-2 combination, but Charlie Morton has dealt with injuries, and the Bucs have received little consistency from Jeff Locke and Vance Worley. Brink feels the team is likely to pursue a starting pitcher, though I’ll opine that adding two — one for stability and one as an increasingly typical Pittsburgh reclamation project — is a sensible route to take. (Doug Fister and Mat Latos stand out as talented arms in need of reestablishing their stock.)
Here are a few more notes from the game’s Central divisions as we all gear up for today’s glut of postseason baseball…
- Right-hander Blaine Boyer has expressed interest in re-signing with the Twins, writes MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger in his look at the Twins’ upcoming offseason. Signed to a minor league pact last winter, Boyer made the club after a solid Spring Training and held a setup role all season despite possessing one of the lowest strikeout rates (4.6 K/9) of any reliever that pitched a full season. Boyer survived in part due to strong control (2.6 BB/9) and an above-average ground-ball rate (47.6 percent), but ERA estimators like FIP (4.00), xFIP (4.36) and SIERA (4.41) all feel that the stellar 2.49 mark he posted in 65 innings this season is due for a good bit of regression. Whether or not Boyer returns, Bollinger adds that the Twins are expected to look for bullpen upgrades via both trades and free agency.
- Tigers GM Al Avila was emphatic yesterday in telling the media that he did not speak to a single outside managerial candidate before deciding to retain Brad Ausmus, writes MLive.com’s James Schmehl. Reports had indicated that former division rival Ron Gardenhire was a candidate to step in for Ausmus following the season, but Avila, whom Schmehl says was given sole authority to make the decision on Ausmus steadfastly denied that there was any truth to said rumors.
- The likelihood of trading Aroldis Chapman this offseason only further muddies a Reds bullpen that desperately needs fixing, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Fay, however, cautions the pursuit of free agents — with the exception of a relatively inexpensive arm to replace Chapman, similar to the Braves’ signing of Jason Grilli last winter — instead opining that the team is best suited to use its young arms to fill in the gaps. J.J. Hoover will return, he notes, and Pedro Villarreal and Jumbo Diaz are likely to be in the mix as well. Fay feels it’d be best to move on from Burke Badenhop, suggesting that Michael Lorenzen, Brandon Finnegan and Keyvius Sampson all work in relief initially next year, despite the fact that some feel Lorenzen and Finnegan still have starter upside.
Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays already have an excellent defense and (now that almost everyone is healthy) a deep rotation, so their main offseason goal will be to add enough bats to get back into the AL East hunt.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Evan Longoria, 3B: $111.5MM through 2022 ($13MM club option for 2023)
- Chris Archer, SP: $23MM through 2019 (plus club options for 2020-21)
- James Loney, 1B: $8MM through 2016
- Matt Moore, SP: $7.5MM through 2016 (plus club options for 2017-19)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Jake McGee (4.127) – $4.7MM projected salary
- Logan Forsythe (4.113) – $3.3MM
- Desmond Jennings (4.101) – $3.1MM
- Rene Rivera (4.082) – $1.6MM
- Alex Cobb (4.061) – $4.0MM
- J.P. Arencibia (4.052) – $1.4MM
- Daniel Nava (4.045) – $1.9MM
- Drew Smyly (3.154) – $3.9MM
- Brandon Gomes (3.082) – $900K
- Brandon Guyer (3.066) – $1.3MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (2.158) – $2.8MM
- Non-tender candidates: Arencibia, Rivera, Gomes, Nava
Contract Options
- None
Free Agents
Even following a 2014-15 offseason that saw them deal several veterans, the Rays were still a tough out last season, finishing with an 80-82 record. President of baseball operations Matthew Silverman is already on record as stating that after a busy year of both roster and front office shuffling, this winter “could be more of “a ‘normal’ offseason during which we can focus all our efforts on advancing the organization.” For the Rays, of course, “normal” doesn’t include any expensive free agent signings. Owner Stuart Sternberg said it’s “not overly likely” that the club’s 2016 payroll will remain at the modest $75-$76MM range of the last two seasons, though this doesn’t necessarily mean Sternberg will order a particularly drastic cut.
Since roughly $29.78MM is already committed for four players next year, Silverman will have to be creative with his offseason maneuvers. This will include figuring out the Rays’ 11 arbitration-eligible players, one of the league’s biggest arb classes. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz figures the Rays will owe roughly $28.9MM in arbitration salaries if they tender everyone, which would bring their total to $58.68MM for 15 players.
Solid 2015 contributors like Logan Forsythe, Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez and Brandon Guyer will obviously be tendered contracts, as will Alex Cobb though he won’t be back from Tommy John surgery until late next season. One potential avenue for reducing the 2016 payroll would be to explore signing some of these players (Forsythe, Smyly, Ramirez or even Cobb on a somewhat unique deal given his health situation) to extensions. The Rays are no strangers to locking up young players early in their careers, and this strategy is likely to continue under Silverman as it did under Friedman.
The decision to tender Rene Rivera or J.P. Arencibia could determine the backup catcher’s job if the Rays are comfortable with Curt Casali getting most of the action. Rivera’s defense likely gives him the edge over Arencibia’s power, given the value that Tampa Bay places on pitch-framing. Of course, it’s also possible that the Rays could look to solidify things behind the plate by acquiring a new everyday catcher and using Casali as the backup.
Desmond Jennings and Jake McGee present a couple of interesting cases for the Rays. Jennings missed almost all of 2015 with knee injuries, so if the team isn’t sure if he’ll be a viable everyday answer on the Tropicana Field turf, the Rays could explore a trade. Left field could then be filled by a platoon of Guyer and a left-handed bat (perhaps a re-signed Grady Sizemore), or potentially another offseason acquisition.
McGee had some injuries as well last season but pitched brilliantly (2.41 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 6.00 K/BB rate over 37 1/3 IP) when healthy. With Brad Boxberger also coming off a strong season as closer, however, the Rays may feel McGee’s projected $4.7MM arbitration price tag is too costly. The Rays have enough of a history of successful reliever reclamation projects that they could choose to rebuild another arm rather than pay McGee. On the flip side, Silverman could look to gain cost-certainty over McGee by signing him to an extension and then team him with Boxberger to pursue a Royals-esque strategy of winning with defense and a lockdown bullpen.
That defense was aided by the emergence of Forsythe and Kevin Kiermaier as everyday players at second and center field, respectively. Forsythe broke out in his second year as a Ray, hitting .281/.359/.444 with 17 homers over 615 PA and also providing above-average glovework. Kiermaier had roughly a league-average year at the plate but still generated a whopping 5.5 fWAR thanks to his elite center field glove — his 40.7 UZR/150 and 42 Defensive Runs Saved were by far the highest of any player in baseball.
These two and Evan Longoria will be the locks in next year’s Rays lineup. Elsewhere around the diamond, Steven Souza will have the inside track on the right field job again, while James Loney is likely to remain at first base since Tampa Bay probably won’t find much trade interest in his $8MM salary and declining production. Richie Shaffer will likely get some at-bats spelling Loney against left-handed opponents, and Shaffer could also see some platoon action at DH.
Free agent John Jaso wouldn’t require too big of a contract to return as a part-time DH, though even something like a two-year/$14MM deal (or even a one-year/$6MM) could be too rich for the Rays’ taste. Since Jaso can only hit righties and can’t play the field, the Rays are probably more apt to pursue a player with greater versatility. A left-handed hitting veteran who can play part-time at both DH or either corner outfield spot would be ideal; essentially the Rays could use an upgraded version of David DeJesus, who filled a DH/LF role before being dealt to the Angels last summer.
Shortstop has been filled by veterans Yunel Escobar and Asdrubal Cabrera over the past two seasons, and Tampa Bay will have another vacancy at the position since Cabrera will look for a deal that’s beyond the Rays’ price range. The pickings are somewhat slim on the 2015-16 free agent shortstop market, though in my opinion, Alexei Ramirez stands out as a potential target that would fit the Rays’ M.O. of signing veterans looking to rebuild their value on a one-year deal. Ramirez may not be available on the open market, however, if the White Sox exercise their $10MM club option on his services on the heels of a nice second half.
The Rays probably aren’t looking for a shortstop on a multi-year commitment given that two of their top prospects (Daniel Robertson and Willy Adames) are both shortstops, and Robertson could potentially hit the majors by mid-to-late 2016. A platoon of Tim Beckham and Nick Franklin could fill the void at short until Robertson is ready, and it’s not inconceivable that either of those formerly highly-touted prospects could themselves break out.
Matt Moore had an overall shaky season in his return from Tommy John surgery, though the southpaw looked better over his last four starts of the year. If Moore and Smyly (who missed time with a minor tear in his labrum) are both healthy and productive, the Rays rotation could be one of the best in the game with those two left-handers, Jake Odorizzi and ace Chris Archer leading the way. As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently observed, the Rays will also have a load of fifth starter depth in the form of Ramirez, Matt Andriese, Alex Colome, Nate Karns, Cobb when he’s healthy and top prospect Blake Snell knocking on the door.
This type of pitching depth can be helpful to the Rays in two ways. Firstly, they could simply keep it and guard themselves against the kind of major injuries that befell Moore, Cobb or Smyly over the last two years. Along those same lines, the Rays could use an extra starter in a relief role to bolster the bullpen. Andriese and Colome were mostly used out of the pen in 2015, and it’s possible Cobb could return as a reliever in order to slowly ease him back after his surgery.
On the other hand, a starter could also be used as a trade chip. In less than a year running Tampa Bay’s front office, Silverman has already shown himself to be a very aggressive dealer in his efforts to restock the farm system, so if he makes a similar trade market splash when focused on the Major League roster, there’s no shortage of options. We can safely assume that Archer is staying put, though could pre-arb arms like Odorizzi or Ramirez be moved for a big return? Ramirez quietly posted a 2.95 ERA over his last 128 innings (22 starts) of 2015 and while that’s certainly promising, the Rays could also explore selling high.
Smyly or Moore could also be attractive commodities in potential deals if other teams are satisfied that both are healthy. Each left-hander is controllable — Smyly is in his second of four arbitration years and Moore is on an option-heavy contract that could run through 2019. Lower-level starters like Colome or Andriese could also be shopped for smaller parts.
The Rays hung in the Wild Card race until mid-August, and that was even after Kevin Jepsen was traded to Minnesota, a deal that reportedly cast a disappointed pall over the Tampa Bay clubhouse. As Silverman indicated, the front office’s attention will now be more firmly directed on the season at hand rather than just at the future. Don’t be surprised if the Rays are again involved in a plethora of deals and are getting a lot of playoff contender buzz come Spring Training.
NL Notes: Brewers, Reds, Span, Knorr
Brewers GM David Stearns says that his just-established front office is working on a flexible offseason plan that will allow the organization to tackle the winter’s always-changing trade and free agent markets, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. “Having a specified plan going into an offseason is always a little bit challenging because the dynamics of the offseason change consistently,” he said. “With every trade, every team’s needs change somewhat. With every signing, the market can change a little bit. But heading into the GM Meetings we should have a rough outline of what we’re looking to do as an organization. And then the period between the GM Meetings and the Winter Meetings, as the market begins to take shape, we should begin to really target specific areas.”
- While Stearns kept his cards close to the vest, he said that his new team — unlike the Astros, where he served as assistant GM — does not have the same need to “start[] from scratch” since Milwaukee has already begun a rebuilding phase. He (wisely) declined to commit to a contention timeline, but said he believes the “fan base recognizes that there’s patience needed.” As for how drastic the tear-down could be, Stearns said he’s open to continue dealing from the major league roster.
- The Reds face an interesting offseason, and MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon breaks things down. There are some scenarios where the club could stay in much the same form as it ended 2015, while welcoming back some injured players. Or, of course, a variety of veterans could end up being dealt.
- Outfielder Denard Span, who will soon become a free agent from the Nationals, tweeted today that recent X-rays showed positive news as he recovers from hip surgery. He obviously won’t have a chance to prove his health before hitting the market, but that’s obviously promising news. The 31-year-old has been highly productive over the last two years when he’s on the field, but missed time this year with the hip issue and offseason core muscle surgery. Though he’s one of only a few quality center field options on the free agent market, health concerns figure to hold down his earning power. It remains to be seen whether Washington will make Span a qualifying offer, which could also impact his market.
- Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr lost his job along with the entire rest of the team’s coaching staff this year, but he tells James Wagner of the Washington Post that he’s still interested in a chance at interviewing for the open managerial position — a possibility that GM Mike Rizzo expressly left open (while not exactly endorsing) in his recent comments to the press. “They would have to ask me to interview for it,” Knorr said. “I’d love to do it. I know all the players. I’ve been around them for four years now. I think I’d be really good for the job. I don’t know which direction they wanna go. I don’t know if they want the big name again or what. But I think I’m probably the most qualified for it.”
AL Notes: Tigers, Rotation, Rondon, Gwynn, Bundy, Yanks
Tigers GM Al Avila addressed the press today, and Chris Iott of MLive.com has the story (or, if you prefer, the video). We already touched upon his comments regarding the possibility of a J.D. Martinez extension. He also noted the importance of bolstering the pitching staff, saying that the “hope is to find two starting pitchers” — one toward the top of the staff and another back-end arm. The club will also consider newly-acquired youngsters Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, and Michael Fulmer for starting jobs, along with the struggling Shane Greene — who could instead move to relief duty. Speaking of the pen, Avila noted that adding a lockdown closer would be “a tough task” given the paucity of 9th-inning arms on the market. He also noted that pitching was a greater priority than adding in the outfield, where the team feels good about youngster Tyler Collins. Though Avila didn’t reveal details, he said the cash would be there to make the additions that the team needs: “We’ll have a highly competitive payroll, as we have in the past.”
Here’s more from Detroit and the rest of the American League:
- Tigers reliever Bruce Rondon took the closer job briefly but was ultimately sent home early for an apparent lack of effort. Avila says that the fireballer will need to prove that he is committed and capable, with the GM saying he’s “keeping my fingers crossed that the lesson was learned and he comes back ready to go.” One player who won’t be coming back is veteran infielder Josh Wilson, who has been told he’ll not be re-signed. And Avila said that long-time backstop Alex Avila — who is, of course, his son — is also expected to end up with a new organization.
- Changes in the Mariners‘ front office continued on Thursday, as Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported that director of player development Chris Gwynn has stepped down from his post (Twitter link). The Mariners have since confirmed Gwynn’s resignation, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that his expectation for the role to be filled by Angels assistant GM Scott Servais — a lieutenant of new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto when the two worked together in Anaheim.
- Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy threw off a mound on Wednesday for the first time since shoulder troubles caused him to be shut down for the season in May, writes the Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina. Bundy, formerly rated as the No. 2 overall prospect in the game by both Baseball America and MLB.com, threw 20 pitches in the side session. Director of player development Brian Graham said that Bundy has no physical issues and showed good velocity. The team will decide if he’s to throw in winter ball or possibly the Arizona Fall League, but as Encina notes, getting him some work will be important. Bundy is out of minor league options and will have to stick on the Opening Day roster to avoid waivers next season, so getting him back into game shape carries extra importance for Baltimore.
- The Yankees have quite a bit of work to do heading into the offseason, writes MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom. Unfortunately, the team doesn’t have much in the way of financial “wiggle room” to pursue the likes of David Price, Zack Greinke or Justin Upton, despite the fact that each player would fill a need for the club, Bloom opines. Perhaps chief among the Yankees’ needs will be to determine if age, injuries or simply general wear and tear contributed to the decline of Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Chase Headley and Carlos Beltran down the stretch, he adds.
Cubs To Sign Eddy Julio Martinez
The Cubs have reached agreement with Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. He’ll receive the $3MM bonus that he was reportedly seeking.
Martinez, 20, had been said to be in agreement with the Giants earlier in the week. The $2.5MM deal was said to be complete pending only a physical, with San Francisco GM Bobby Evans acknowledging it to the press. But things fell apart, apparently for financial reasons, as Sanchez reported that that the youngster was looking for a $3MM bonus.
Chicago swooped in to meet that asking price, adding him to an already-loaded class of international signings. The Cubs, like the Giants had previously committed to spending well past their overall pool allocation, meaning that they were already set to face a two-year ban on $300K+ signings. Adding Martinez did nothing to impact that, though the club will pay a 100% overage tax on his bonus.
We’ve heard some varying opinions on Martinez’s outlook over the last several months, but all agree that he is a legitimate prospect with a good hit tool and excellent speed. The questions are about his power potential and ability to handle center field in the long run. Read more on the BHSC client from Sanchez and Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required and recommended).
Tigers, J.D. Martinez Have Mutual Interest In Extension
Tigers GM Al Avila said today that the organization has interest in pursuing an extension with outfielder J.D. Martinez, as Chris Iott of MLive.com reports. He declined to discuss whether and to what extent the sides had already discussed that possibility.
“I don’t really want to get into our conversations with the players or their agents at this point,” said the newly-minted Detroit GM. “Usually we don’t make those comments. I can tell you we would have interest in something like that.”
Martinez, 28, is entering his second season of arbitration eligibility after earning $3MM last year. He’ll be looking for a big increase on that payout after a stellar campaign. MLBTR’s arbitration projections, via Matt Swartz, expect Martinez to receive nearly a $5MM raise this winter.
From his perspective, Martinez tells Iott, he has interest in a longer-term arrangement. But he said he’d let his representatives at RMG Baseball handle any contractual matters. “I would love to play in Detroit the rest of my career,” said Martinez. “But I leave the business part to my agent.”
That increasing earning power certainly has Martinez set up for a significant new contract. There aren’t many recent comps from power-hitting corner outfielders, but Adam Jones (six years, $85.5MM) and Alex Gordon (four years, $50MM) previously signed fairly large extensions when they were in the 4+ service class.
With 61 total home runs and a composite .304/.350/.543 batting line over the last two seasons, Martinez has out-produced all of this winter’s top free agents since he began his breakout. If he keeps that up, he’ll be in line for a massive free agent payday, and any extension would need to reflect that. All said, it seems that the initial interest is there to make a deal plausible, but both sides have plenty of ground to cover if something is to get done.
MLBTR Chat: Wieters, Yankees, Pads, Price, Cespedes
Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians
The Indians underperformed in the season’s first half but rode a strong second half onto the fringes of the American League Wild Card race late in the year. Cleveland finished with a bizarre record of 81-80, as a rained-out contest with the Tigers was never made up with both teams eliminated from postseason play. Newly promoted president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff will look to improve upon that win total in the upcoming offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jason Kipnis, 2B: $45.5MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
- Corey Kluber, RHP: $36.5MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
- Yan Gomes, C: $20.95MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
- Carlos Carrasco, RHP: $19.6625MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 option)
- Chris Johnson, 3B/1B: $17.5MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
- Michael Brantley: $15MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
- Carlos Santana, 1B/DH: $9.45MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 option)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)
- Josh Tomlin (4.151) – $3.1MM
- Bryan Shaw (4.081) – $2.8MM
- Lonnie Chisenhall (3.158) – $3.0MM
- Zach McAllister (3.077) – $1.0MM
- Cody Allen (3.076) – $3.5MM
- Nick Hagadone (3.056) – $600K
- Jeff Manship (2.130) – $700K
- Non-tender candidate: Hagadone
Contract Options
- Ryan Raburn, OF: $3MM club option with a $100K buyout
Free Agents
With a little more than $41MM committed to the 2016 payroll plus another $15MM or so in arbitration raises looming, plus 10 spots at or near the league minimum, Cleveland’s payroll presently projects to about $61MM. That’d be about $26MM south of their Opening Day mark from 2015, and while it’s not clear if they’ll be willing to spend back up to that level — the team did, after all, eat $10MM in the trade that sent Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to Atlanta — there appears to be a fair amount of room to make additions. Significant additions, however, may not be as necessary as one would think when glancing at the team’s record.
On paper, the 2015 Indians look like a club that should’ve contended for a playoff spot more credibly than they actually did. The team finished eighth in the Majors with a collective 3.68 ERA on the strength of an impressive, team-controlled rotation and a bullpen filled with quality arms. On the offensive side of the spectrum, Cleveland’s hitters combined to hit .256/.325/.401, which translates to a wRC+ of 99. (That is to say, essentially, their hitters’ collective production was one percent below the league average.)
Given those figures and he fact that the team’s pending free agents are more role players than everyday contributors, there’s reason to believe that Antonetti, Chernoff and the rest of the front office don’t need a drastic overhaul to experience better results on the field next year. A rebound from Yan Gomes and a full season of the incredible Francisco Lindor (my personal pick for AL Rookie of the Year) will go a long ways toward improving the club’s record. That said, there are still some very clear areas of need.
First and foremost is the team’s lack of production at third base. Indians third basemen combined to slash just .228/.273/.356. While players like Giovanny Urshela and Jose Ramirez graded out well defensively, neither provided much in the way of offense. Lonnie Chisenhall, long hoped to be the future at third base, now looks like more of an answer in right field due to the strong defensive contributions he turned in following the change. Chris Johnson has a good deal of experience at the hot corner but has a questionable glove and significant platoon issues, making it a stretch to use him as an everyday option there.
The free agent market offers little in terms of certainty at third base, but Cleveland could make a run at David Freese to fill the need. A slightly above-average bat and slightly below-average glove, he’s not an exciting option but could solidify the position. His age — he’ll play next season at 33 — figures to keep his price down, to some extent. Daniel Murphy could be another option, even though the longtime Mets infielder has spent far more time at second base than third base in his career.
Turning to the trade market, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar and Luis Valbuena represent potential short-term fixes. Each is signed through 2016. Trevor Plouffe‘s name figures to come up as a potential trade candidate given the emergence of Miguel Sano, though it’s worth wondering if the Twins would be averse to an intra-division swap. The two sides have lined up on a pair of trades in the past six years, but those were minor deals involving Jim Thome and Carl Pavano in the late stages of each veteran’s career, whereas Plouffe is in the midst of his prime. A higher-ceiling medium-term trade candidate would be Todd Frazier, but the cost of a cross-state swap with the Reds would be significantly higher than the cost to acquire any of the previously mentioned names. While I personally feel the Reds should be open to dealing Frazier to accelerate their rebuild, there’s been no indication that such a scenario is something to which Cincinnati is open. Displaced Phillies third baseman Cody Asche could be an even longer-term option, though he’d be a buy-low pickup after a fairly unproductive 2015 season. If those struggled continued, Cleveland would be right back where it started.
The rest of the Cleveland infield is more or less set, with Lindor manning shortstop and Jason Kipnis returning to reprise his role at second base. Carlos Santana figures to see the bulk of the playing time at first base, though Antonetti and Chernoff could seek help in the first base/DH realm. Cleveland is lacking in right-handed pop, for instance, making someone like Mike Napoli or Steve Pearce a fit, at least on paper. If handedness isn’t an issue, John Jaso is an underrated candidate for clubs in need of some DH production, and Justin Morneau could be lower-cost first base/DH option. Either would require a platoon partner, however.
In the outfield, Michael Brantley will again man left field after emerging as one of baseball premier corner outfielders over the past two seasons. Right field figures to be manned primarily by Chisenhall, whose glove out there was highly impressive to Cleveland. Chisenhall posted unbelievable marks of +11 DRS and +9.3 UZR in just 354 innings in right, and while he’s not likely to maintain those rates and save somewhere in range of 35 to 40 runs next year, he’s probably earned a look in at least a platoon capacity. (As mentioned before, Johnson’s been suggested by the Cleveland media as a probable platoon partner.)
The question, then, is center field. Abraham Almonte impressed in 51 games, hitting .261/.324/.455 with sound defense, but he’s never shown that level of production in the Majors until arriving in Cleveland. Almonte hit .233/.283/.336 in 364 plate appearances between the Mariners and Padres before joining Cleveland. He does bring a career .287/.369/.437 Triple-A batting line (999 PAs) to the table.
Nevertheless, banking on that productivity translating to the Majors in 2016 is a sizable risk for a team that will aim to contend and does have some financial flexibility. Given Almonte’s unproven nature, the Indians could, at minimum, seek out a platoon partner. Though Almonte is a switch-hitter, he struggled against lefties in 2015 and has been far worse against them throughout his career. Rajai Davis would be a nice fit on the free agent market, and Justin Ruggiano could be a lower-cost option as well.
A longer-term fix would be to pursue a trade of a controllable center fielder, and one name in which Cleveland expressed interest this summer is Marcell Ozuna. The Indians’ interest in Ozuna pre-dates their acquisition of Almonte, but Ozuna’s offensive upside is more significant than that of Almonte. The 24-year-old Marlins outfielder batted .269/.317/.455 with 23 homers in 2014 but has fallen out of favor with owner Jeffrey Loria this year. Ozuna was demoted to Triple-A on the heels of a 1-for-36 slump and kept in the minors long enough to prompt accusations of service time manipulation from agent Scott Boras. While some may roll their eyes at such allegations due to the source of said complaint, it’s worth noting that Ozuna will narrowly fall shy of Super Two designation. (The question is not whether a demotion was warranted, but rather whether the length was necessary from a developmental standpoint or boiled down to financial manipulation.) Ozuna hit well in Triple-A but upon returning to the Majors likened the demotion to a jail sentence. Reports since have indicated that Loria has soured on the talented Ozuna, who is controlled through the 2019 season.
Miami would most likely ask young pitching in return for Ozuna, and Cleveland is perhaps better suited than any team in baseball to accommodate that desire. Rotation options for 2016 include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, Cody Anderson and Trevor Bauer. Of all those names, Bauer stands out as someone who could be sent to Miami in an Ozuna trade. The former No. 3 overall pick led the AL with 79 walks this season and finished with an ugly 4.58 ERA, though he was very good through the season’s first few months before his walk rate spiraled out of control. He’s controlled through 2020 and has had more recent success, so his value would seem to be higher than Ozuna’s. As such, other pieces need to be involved (perhaps Cleveland could add prospects and push for Prado to be included in a deal as well). But, an Ozuna-for-Bauer framework would, at its core, represent a swap of two high-ceiling, controllable assets that have struggled in their current setting.
If the team does trade a starter, adding a veteran arm on a one-year deal to provide some depth would seem to be a prudent decision. Anderson was sharp in 2015, but his minuscule strikeout rate and BABIP bring in question the sustainability of that success. Tomlin, too, was impressive, maintaining his increased strikeout rate from 2014, but he hasn’t thrown more than 144 innings in a season since 2011. Gavin Floyd has expressed interest in returning and shouldn’t cost more than a few million dollars. Chris Young could also be a one-year deal candidate, and reclamation projects such as Doug Fister, Mat Latos and Bud Norris could all be looking at such contracts as well.
Left-handed depth in the bullpen will need to be an area of focus, as Nick Hagadone underwent elbow surgery that will cost him six to nine months (making him a possible non-tender). Kyle Crockett and Giovanni Soto are internal options, but Crockett had a poor 2015 between Triple-A and the Majors, and Soto has averaged more than five walks per nine innings at Triple-A in two seasons. Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw and Zach McAllister will be the primary righties, and Jeff Manship’s surprisingly dominant season has earned him a look in 2016 as well.
An under-the-radar need for Cleveland is to improve its bench. In recent seasons, the since-shed albatross contracts of Swisher and Bourn not only hampered payroll but took a pair of valuable roster spots that left bench options thin. Mike Aviles and Ryan Raburn seem unlikely to return, so adding some younger, versatile bench pieces would be of benefit. Jose Ramirez and his glove could have the inside track to one bench spot, and Almonte could become a fourth outfielder if a center fielder is acquired. Roberto Perez is one of the game’s better backup catchers, so that position isn’t an area of need.
For all the speculation about the ways in which Cleveland could look to improve, the fact remains that major improvement isn’t needed. A full season of Lindor will be a boon to the team’s playoff hopes, and a rotation fronted by Kluber, Carraso and Salazar should be formidable, as should the returning right-handed arms in the bullpen. Cleveland has a few notable holes, but they have the trade chips necessary to fill in the gaps. And, unlike the past two offseasons, they have some financial firepower to supplement the roster if that’s a more preferable course of action as well.