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Tyler Nevin To Sign With NPB’S Seibu Lions

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Infielder/outfielder Tyler Nevin is heading overseas to sign with the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per multiple reports out of Japan. Salary figures have not been publicly reported.

Players that head to foreign leagues often have strong numbers in the minors but less so in the majors, a category that Nevin certainly falls into. He has received 591 plate appearances at the major league level over the past four years, suiting up for the Orioles, Tigers and Athletics. He produced a line of .204/.299/.315 in those, which translates to an 81 wRC+, indicating he was 19% below league average.

Over the past three years, he stepped to the plate 639 times at the Triple-A level. His 10.2% walk rate and 17.2% strikeout rate in that time were both solid numbers and he also hit 26 home runs, helping him produce a combined .313/.391/.536 line and 135 wRC+.

Those minor league numbers got Nevin some big league chances but he couldn’t take advantage of them and exhausted his final option year in 2023, which left him struggling to hold a roster spot in 2024.

This year, Nevin likely would have been ticketed for more of the same if he had stayed in North American ball, probably settling for a minor league deal and maybe the occasional major league opportunity. Instead, by heading to Japan, he will likely earn himself a bit more of a financial guarantee and perhaps a decent chance at lengthy playing time at a high level.

Nevin is capable of playing all four corner spots and could slot into any of those for the Lions. If he has a nice season, perhaps he could parlay that into a return to North America down the line, or a bump to a higher salary level while staying in Asia.

Padres, Luis Arraez Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Arraez will earn $14MM in 2025, his final year of arbitration eligibility. A $14MM payday represents a nice raise for the infielder, who made $10.6MM in 2024, though it’s slightly less than his projected $14.6MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

The Padres acquired Arraez in a trade with the Marlins last May. Although he represented San Diego at the All-Star Game this past summer and finished the season with an NL-best .314 batting average, the 2024 season was a down year for Arraez. His .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ were well below his .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022-23. In addition, his defensive numbers were worse than ever. He managed to accrue -3 DRS and -6 OAA at first base and -3 DRS and -7 OAA and second base. Thus, the Padres ended up using him as their DH a good amount of the time, which only further decreased his overall value.

If Arraez can shore up his defense and get back to hitting like he did in 2022 and ’23, he will still be a bargain for San Diego at a $14MM salary. However, the Padres are thought to be trying to cut payroll this winter. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll for the 2025 season is $39MM higher than their final payroll at the end of 2024. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller is reportedly trying to bring the payroll down to somewhere in between its current projected figure and last year’s final tally. If Preller plans to reduce payroll and still make any additions this winter, he will almost certainly have to trade some of his more expensive veterans. Thus, Arraez’s name has popped up in trade rumors.

About a month ago, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres had engaged in internal discussions about trading Arraez. It’s not hard to see why. His contract is more tradeable than the longer-term deals belonging to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts,  Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Joe Musgrove, or Yu Darvish. Dylan Cease surely has more trade value than Arraez, but for the same reasons, the Padres might be more likely to want to keep him around. Cease is projected to earn $13.7MM in arbitration, a similar number to Arraez’s $14MM salary. So, trading Cease would free up a similar amount of payroll as trading Arraez, but it would mean giving up a far more productive player.

Yet, the only team to be formally linked to Arraez this winter is the Yankees, and it’s unclear how interested New York really is. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that the Yankees have “continued to discuss” Arraez with the Padres, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and SNY’s Andy Martino have pushed back on that connection. Martino reports that the Yankees “briefly” checked in on Arraez in November and “have not engaged with the Padres” on the subject since.

To further complicate matters, Bob Nightengale of USA Today is now reporting that the Padres “plan to keep” Arraez after all. That’s somewhat surprising if the team is still serious about trimming payroll, but perhaps the Padres decided teams around the league were undervaluing Arraez after his down year in 2024. That might be the right decision. After all, if he can get back to being the hitter he was from 2022-23, the Padres would have a hard time replacing that kind of production for less than $14MM.

Dodgers Trade Diego Cartaya To Twins

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The Twins have acquired former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya from the Dodgers in exchange for minor league right-hander Jose Vasquez, per announcements from both clubs. Cartaya was designated for assignment earlier in the week. Minnesota had an open 40-man roster spot, and their roster is now full.

As recently as two years ago, Cartaya was a consensus top-20 prospect in the entire sport. He’s still just 23 years old, but the Venezuelan-born backstop’s offensive development has stalled out in the upper minors. Back in 2022, Cartaya slashed a combined .254/.389/.503 with 22 homers and a 14.3% walk rate across two Class-A levels. He’s followed that with lackluster performances in both Double-A (.204/.303/.379 in two seasons) and Triple-A (.208/.293/.350 in 208 plate appearances last year).

Though his bat hasn’t progressed, scouting reports in recent seasons have praised improved glovework from the 6’3″, 219-pound Cartaya. Both Baseball America and MLB.com noted in their 2024 midseason reports on Cartaya that he made notable gains with his framing, receiving and blocking. He’d already been touted for plus arm strength, though shaky accuracy has led to a roughly average 20% caught-stealing rate in his five minor league seasons.

If nothing else, the tools are there for Cartaya to be a solid defender behind the plate and a patient, OBP-focused hitter in the batter’s box. He did turn in a solid .247/.370/.377 slash against lefties last year, though that came in just 92 plate appearances and he struggled immensely versus southpaws in a similar sample a year prior. Cartaya still has one minor league option year remaining, so the Twins can send him to Triple-A to begin the season without needing to pass him through waivers.

The Twins already have an above-average starter in Ryan Jeffers and a pricey, glove-first backup in Christian Vazquez. Catcher Jair Camargo and catcher/first baseman Mickey Gasper (acquired from the Red Sox last month) are both on the 40-man roster as well. Minnesota has been hopeful of trading Vazquez and a portion of his $10MM salary as they seek to scale back payroll. There could well be a market if they’re willing to eat around half that sum, and the addition of Cartaya creates some further depth in the event that they do indeed move Vazquez (or, more surprisingly, listen to offers on Jeffers).

In return for Cartaya, the Dodgers will pick up a project right-hander. Vasquez, listed at 6’4″ and a 200 pounds, signed with the Twins out of the Dominican Republic as part of their 2022 international class. He’s spent the past two years — his age-18 and age-19 seasons — pitching for Minnesota’s affiliate in the Dominican Summer League. The bottom-line results aren’t much to look at, as Vasquez has been tagged for a 8.05 ERA in 57 innings. Part of that was a sky-high ERA north of 11.00 in 2023, however. He pitched to a more palatable 4.99 mark in 30 2/3 frames this past season.

Command was a major issue for Vasquez in ’23, evidenced by a ghastly 21.9% walk rate. He made major strides in 2024, however, cutting that mark in half (10.7%) while nearly doubling his strikeout rate from 17.8% to 32.1%. He was a bit older than the average DSL player last year and figures to head to one of the Dodgers’ full-season affiliates in 2025. There’s some obvious bat-missing potential for the lanky right-hander, but he’ll need to make further gains with his command and find a way to get left-handed opponents out. Vasquez held righties to an awful .203/.309/.290 output in 2024 but was scorched for a .314/.407/.392 line against southpaws.

Oswaldo Cabrera Drawing Trade Interest

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As the Yankees’ roster currently stands, Oswaldo Cabrera might be the most likely option to be the team’s regular third baseman in 2025. He has appeared in 92 career games at the hot corner, more than anywhere else on the diamond, and has put up excellent defensive metrics in that small sample of playing time. In 706 2/3 innings, he has 9 Defensive Runs Saves, 4 Outs Above Average, and a +3 Fielding Run Value. However, Cabrera has struggled to make the same kind of impact at the plate throughout his brief big league tenure. In 827 plate appearances from 2022-24, he has a .643 OPS and an 80 wRC+. Thus, FanGraphs estimates he has only been worth 1.3 Wins Above Replacement in 268 career games.

With all that in mind, it’s no surprise the Yankees are pursuing infield upgrades. For instance, they have recently been linked to players like Jorge Polanco, Brendan Rodgers, and Luis Arraez. If New York were to add any of those players – or a different second or third baseman – Cabrera would be the odd man out in the starting lineup. That would relegate him to a bench role once again in his age-26 season. So, it makes sense that multiple teams have reportedly spoken with the Yankees about Cabrera’s availability in a trade this winter (per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic). A rebuilding club or a contender with less infield depth might have more playing time to offer Cabrera in 2025 and therefore might value him more highly than the Yankees. What’s more, the market for lower-tier infielders is thin right now. Plenty of teams might prefer to take a chance on Cabrera’s upside than sign a known (and aging) entity like Enrique Hernández or Whit Merrifield. Cabrera is still young, still has room for growth, and won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2026.

That being said, Kuty also mentions that the Yankees “don’t seem likely” to trade Cabrera. After all, he could be their most valuable utility player this year. He’s a safer bet than the declining DJ LeMahieu and more of a proven major leaguer than former top prospect Oswald Peraza or current prospect Jorbit Vivas. What’s more, Cabrera can also play the outfield corners. He only played a handful of games in the outfield last season, but he has close to 900 innings of left and right field experience under his belt. That’s the kind of versatile bench player the Yankees could use even if/when they add another starting infielder. Indeed, this team should certainly understand the importance of position player depth. Thanks to his flexibility and good health, Cabrera has taken the field in 224 games over the last two seasons. Only two current Yankees have played more games for the team in that time: Anthony Volpe and Aaron Judge.

Twins Plan To Keep Griffin Jax In Bullpen

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In November, Twins bench coach Jayce Tingler left the door open for a rotation move for Griffin Jax. With Spring Training approaching, the team no longer seems to be considering that move.

“Our plan is to keep Griff in the bullpen for 2025,” general manager Jeremy Zoll said on the team’s Inside Twins show. “Obviously he was tremendously valuable in 2024. We feel like he’s one of the best relievers in the game and feel really good about that role and plan for the upcoming year and know Griff is excited about that as well.” Zoll left open the possibility of Jax getting a rotation opportunity in future seasons, but that doesn’t seem to be on the table for this year.

Jax has been an excellent reliever for the past three seasons. He posted an ERA in the low 3.00s with plus strikeout and walk rates between 2022-23. The righty took a major step forward last year, working to a 2.03 earned run average over 71 innings. Jax’s 34.4% strikeout percentage ranked 10th among relievers with 50+ innings. His 18.4% swinging strike rate was even more impressive. Among that same group, only Josh Hader, Dylan Lee and Mason Miller missed more bats on a per-pitch basis.

Players like Michael King, Seth Lugo, Reynaldo López and Garrett Crochet have made successful bullpen to rotation moves in recent years. There’s significant upside in such a move if a pitcher can maintain similar rate dominance over a heavier workload. At the same time, taking a player out of a role in which he has been dominant comes with some element of risk. There’s the potential for injury or simply waning effectiveness as a pitcher navigates an opposing lineup two or three times in a game.

Jax, who is entering his age-30 season, is in his first of three arbitration years. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that he and the team settled on a $2.365MM deal to avoid a hearing. Pitching in a setup role in front of Jhoan Duran comes with less earning power via arbitration than he’d have if he were a starter or had a crack at the ninth inning.

Duran and Jax form a potentially elite back-end duo for skipper Rocco Baldelli. Brock Stewart, Justin Topa, Jorge Alcalá and Cole Sands could also pitch their way into leverage innings. Minnesota is light on left-handers and could look for a low-cost southpaw this offseason. Kody Funderburk and depth starter Brent Headrick are the only left-handed pitchers on the 40-man roster.

Minnesota has a decent stockpile of rotation depth. Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober project as the top three starters. Chris Paddack is lined up as the #4 arm, while Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and prospects David Festa and Zebby Matthews could compete for the final rotation spot. López and Paddack have each come up in trade rumors because the Minnesota front office is seemingly working without any kind of payroll flexibility. They’d require a massive haul to move López, their staff ace. Trading Paddack to offload his $7.5MM salary and create space for an offensive acquisition may be more likely.

On the position player side, Zoll confirmed that the Twins will give Royce Lewis reps at both second and third base in Spring Training. The former first overall pick has only started one major league game at the keystone. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported early in the offseason that the Twins were contemplating a full-time move to second base for the upcoming season. Zoll didn’t firmly commit to an infield alignment and spoke generally about the value of the defensive flexibility that Lewis, Willi Castro and Brooks Lee bring to the table.

Red Sox Have Shown Interest In Phil Maton

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The Red Sox have already signed two free agent relievers to major league deals this offseason: veteran closer Aroldis Chapman and journeyman Justin Wilson. What’s more, Liam Hendriks, another star closer, should be back in the ’pen after missing the entire 2024 season due to injury. Still, Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently identified the bullpen as an area he’s looking to further improve. It makes sense; Red Sox relievers ranked 24th in ERA and 20th in SIERA last season, while finishing with the second-most blown saves in the AL – and that was before losing Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.

Thus, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox have “checked in on a long, long list” of names in pursuit of bullpen upgrades. That includes Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Carlos Estévez, Tommy Kahnle, and Andrew Kittredge. On Wednesday, Cotillo added Phil Maton to that cohort.

Maton, 32 in March, is coming off an up-and-down season split between the Rays and Mets. The right-hander struggled in Tampa Bay after signing a one-year, $6.5MM contract (with a club option for 2025) last offseason. Over 40 games and 35 1/3 innings with the Rays, he pitched to a 4.58 ERA and 4.52 SIERA. By the end of his brief tenure in Tampa Bay, his strikeout rate was sitting at a career-low and his walk rate at a career-high. Despite the highest groundball rate of his career, he was struggling to prevent runs.

Yet, after a midseason trade to the Mets that was little more than a salary dump on the Rays’ part, Maton bounced back. Across 31 appearances for New York, he tossed 28 2/3 innings with a 2.51 ERA and 2.97 SIERA. His strikeout rate rose to 26.5% – the same above-average level it was at in 2022 and ’23. Meanwhile, his 5.3% walk rate was lower than ever. Although his groundball rate dropped substantially, he gave up just one home run to the 113 batters he faced, thanks in large part to a much lower average exit velocity and barrel rate.

Despite Maton’s successful denouement in Queens, the Mets chose to not exercise their $7.75MM option for his services in 2025. Nonetheless, there is no reason to think he’ll have trouble finding a major league deal elsewhere, although it will probably come with a lower salary. He has already been linked to the Blue Jays this winter, and the Red Sox are the second team known to have interest.

By the end of the 2024 season, Maton’s overall numbers were perfectly respectable: a 3.66 ERA and 3.82 SIERA in 64 IP. It marked his third consecutive campaign with an ERA under four and his fourth surpassing 60 innings of work. Since his first full season in 2020, Maton has a 3.87 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 294 games. In that time, he ranks among the top 10 MLB relievers in appearances and innings pitched. He may not be a dominant, high-leverage arm, but there is certainly value in a reliever who stays on the field and consistently provides average to slightly above-average performance. To that point, the Red Sox already have several high-ceiling back-end hurlers in Chapman, Hendriks, and Justin Slaten. What they could use, however, is a reliable, middle-inning arm to raise the bullpen’s floor. Maton could certainly be that guy.

Cardinals Have Discussed Multi-Year Deals With Donovan, Nootbaar

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8:50am: Denton now reports that a multi-year deal no longer appears likely to be reached by today’s deadline to exchange figures. The two parties can, of course, continue negotiations on a multi-year pact even after arbitration figures have been exchanged. Similarly, the Cards and Donovan could come to terms on a one-year deal today and continue negotiations on a multi-year deal between now and Opening Day.

8:05am: The Cardinals are nearing a multi-year agreement with utilityman Brendan Donovan, reports John Denton of MLB.com. Donovan, a client of the Bledsoe Agency, was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.6MM in his first trip through the process. A multi-year deal would lock in the salary for at least two of his three arbitration seasons.

Denton adds that the Cards also discussed a multi-year arrangement with outfielder Lars Nootbaar, but the two parties haven’t been able to come to terms. He’s expected to agree to a one-year deal later today, avoiding an arbitration hearing in the process. Swartz projected Nootbaar for a $2.5MM salary in what is also his first offseason of eligibility. Like Donovan, Nootbaar is currently under club control through 2027.

Donovan, 28 later this month, has established himself as one of the game’s most valuable multi-position players. The versatile lefty hitter finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2022 and won a Gold Glove for his excellence across six different positions that season: all four infield slots and both outfield corners. Through three big league seasons, he’s turned in a .280/.364/.407 in just shy of 1500 plate appearances.

Donovan is light on power (30 career homers, .126 ISO) but draws walks at an above-average 9.4% clip and is one of the toughest players to strike out in all of baseball (career 13.7 K%, including 12.4 K% in 2024). He’s also fresh off a career-best 14 long balls, though that came in conjunction with a career-low 7.2% walk rate. Regardless of exactly how he’s gotten there, however, Donovan has been a decidedly above-average hitter in all three of his big league seasons, by measure of wRC+, and he’s capable of contributing sharp defense at third base, second base and in the outfield corners at the very least.

Whether the Cardinals are able to secure any free agent seasons in a multi-year deal remains to be seen. Both Denton and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggest that the Cards could approach a Donovan deal similarly to the manner in which they approached Tommy Edman’s case last winter: lock in his remaining arb seasons to obtain some cost certainty without extending the window of existing club control. There’s value in that for the Cards, to be sure, but tacking on at least one additional season would clearly be of greater benefit — if the two parties can find common ground. Donovan’s first free-agent season would be his age-31 campaign.

Nootbaar, 27, is coming off an injury-shortened season but still posted a solid .244/.342/.417 slash with a dozen homers in 405 trips to the plate last year. He’s slashed .246/.351/.426 with a 14% walk rate and 19.8% strikeout rate in 1255 plate appearances dating back to 2022. He’s proven himself capable of handling all three outfield spots but has drawn better marks for his glovework in the corners than in center. With the two sides unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal, it seems he’ll take a one-year pact and perhaps revisit multi-year talks next winter — ideally on the heels of a healthier season.

Donovan and Nootbaar are two of six arbitration-eligible Cardinals this winter. St. Louis also needs to hammer out deals with closer Ryan Helsley, righty Andre Pallante and lefties JoJo Romero and John King. The deadline to exchange salary figures is noon CT today. Like most teams, the Cardinals have adopted a file-and-trial approach in recent years, meaning they’ll use today’s deadline as an unofficial deadline to negotiate on one-year deals. Nothing is technically stopping teams and players from continuing to work toward one-year deals once figures are exchanged, but the vast majority of teams will only continue negotiating on multi-year deals (or one-year deals with an option) once figures have been swapped.

The Past, Present, And Future Of Sports Investments (Sponsored)

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The following is a sponsored post from Finlete.

For as long as anyone can remember, sports fans have sought to grow closer to the games, teams, and players they so passionately support, investing everything from their time to their emotions to their money. From Duke University students camping out in tents to get prime seats, to baseball fans buying up rookie card stacks, to football fans purchasing real stakes in Real Madrid CF and the Green Bay Packers. Of course the internet and smartphones changed the game, with fantasy sports’ popularity exploding about 20 years ago and sports betting exploding over the last 10 years.

Today, how we spend money on sports continues to rapidly evolve, including the ability to invest in athletes’ careers in exchange for a piece of their future earnings. It’s a corner of the sports world that’s starting to make some serious noise and sports investment platform Finlete is a key player.

In 2024, Finlete bookended the year by giving fans the opportunity to invest in the careers of MLB prospects Echedry Vargas and Leonardo Bernal.

Vargas, ranked #16 in the Miami Marlins system (source MLB.com), is a Dominican middle infielder who boasts an aggressive approach and an impressive power-speed combo that ultimately made him a key piece in Miami’s return for Jake Burger this winter. Bernal, the most recent athlete to join Finlete, plies his trade behind the dish as the #9 prospect in St. Louis’ system (source MLB.com) with a keen eye, strong arm, and lots of loud contact.

For potential investors who may lean more mainstream, 3-time AL All-Star Emmanuel Clase became the first Major Leaguer to sign with Finlete in the middle of his historic season and give his legion of fans a shot to join his journey financially. As far as big name investing goes, it doesn’t get much bigger than a certified Cy Young candidate in the prime of his career.

With a growing slate of professional athletes set to be announced in 2025, Finlete is evolving quickly and building upon the foundation set by some pioneers in the sports investment world.

Fantex, which operated from 2012-2016 and allowed fans to buy and sell securities tied to athletes’ contracts, is a great example of being ahead of your time. Fans were able to invest in the careers of Vernon Davis, Alshon Jeffery, and other NFL players, but this was before the tidal waves of crowdfunding and alternative investments rolled in.

Since then, investing in athletes’ careers has been dominated by private hedge funds such as Big League Advance (BLA) and X10 – the former founded by an ex-MLB player and the latter founded by ex-Fantex execs. Not everyone is eligible to invest in a hedge fund and even those who qualify may not have access. It’s exclusive and restrictive. That’s where new companies like Finlete come in, applying lessons learned from Fantex while democratizing access to the kind of investing BLA and X10 have been doing over the last 5-10 years.

For example, BLA successfully signed several future MLB All-Stars including Elly De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the early days of their professional baseball careers, well before they became household names.

The model is simple: Pay prospects an upfront payment in exchange for a percentage of their potential future MLB earnings.

For the athlete, it’s cash now for cash later. It’s giving up a small piece of their potential upside in exchange for more security now. And it’s risk-free in the sense that it’s not a loan, the athlete only owes the investor money if they make it to the big leagues and even then it’s only a small percentage of their MLB salary. The cash up front also helps increase their chances of making it pro.

Elly De La Cruz is a prototypical example. He signed with the Cincinnati Reds in 2018 for $65,000, a fairly small account considering these signing bonuses range from $10,000 to over $9 million. The additional funds from BLA allowed him to supplement that signing bonus and his meager Minor League Baseball (MiLB) salary, which helped him cover basic expenses, finance his training, support his family, and better prepare himself for the grind of the long seasons ahead. The funds often also mean the player can focus on baseball year-round instead of needing to work another job in the offseason.

On the other side of the deal, BLA received a percentage of Elly’s potential future MLB salary. Whereas the player risks losing some upside by having to give up a piece of their earnings if they make it in the big leagues, the investor – BLA in this case – risks loss of capital, as it’s an investment, not a loan, and there’s no guarantee MiLB players will make it to or stick around at the MLB level.

Finlete believes athletes signing these deals with hedge funds is a missed opportunity though. By signing with Finlete instead, athletes can let people from all walks of life be the investors and in so doing build a strong following of extremely dedicated fans. By linking athletes and fans financially, Finlete is taking fan engagement to the next level, as the fans the athletes garner through Finlete will remain fans of theirs for their entire careers, regardless of what team they play for.

While having disposable income always makes investing easier, acquiring a financial stake in a real athlete’s career is exceedingly accessible for the general public. Finlete investors, for example, are able to invest for as little as $300. Bonus shares on the platform are also available for investments of $1,000 or more.

This is a lot like the fractional investment opportunities that have taken shape in other industries. Want to invest in art? Try Masterworks. Real estate? Go with Fundrise or Happy Nest. Tech startups? Look at Wefunder or Republic. The common denominator is that it’s easier than ever to invest in whatever piques your interest. The question now is – what comes next?

For those who choose Finlete, the answer is more. More athletes, more experiences, more perks, more ways to engage with athletes, and ultimately more opportunities to combine a love of the game with real investing. The future of sports investment is here and it’s an exciting outlook for 2025.

The Opener: Arbitration Filing Deadline, Rooker, White Sox

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Here are three things we’ll be paying attention to around baseball this Thursday:

1. Arbitration filing deadline:

By noon CT this afternoon, all arbitration-eligible players must either agree on a contract for the 2025 season or both player and team must file for arbitration. The deadline for both sides to submit arbitration figures is later this evening at 7:00 PM CT. That means you can expect a significant number of players to sign their deals for the upcoming season today. While teams and players can continue negotiations after the filing deadline, many teams take what is known as a “file-and-trial” approach. In other words, they shut down contract discussions after the filing deadline and take all undecided cases to arbitration hearings.

You can find every arbitration-eligible player’s projected salary (from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) here.

2. Brent Rooker press conference:

After officially announcing Brent Rooker’s five-year, $60MM contract extension on Wednesday, the Athletics will hold a press conference to discuss the move today in Sacramento (per Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). Rooker, 30, is coming off of a phenomenal year for the A’s. He ranked fifth in the American League in home runs, third in RBIs, and sixth among qualified AL batters in OPS and wRC+. At season’s end, he was awarded the AL Silver Slugger at DH and finished 10th in AL MVP voting. With the A’s forced to increase payroll this winter, it makes perfect sense they chose to extend their best hitter on a deal that buys out all three of his arbitration seasons and at least two free agent years.

3. Another 40-man move incoming from the White Sox:

The White Sox have already made a handful of 40-man roster moves in the past few weeks, such as DFAing Corey Julks, Braden Shewmake, and Jacob Amaya to make room for Cam Booser, Tyler Gilbert, and Josh Rojas, respectively. Soon, Chicago will have to make another transaction before finalizing the team’s biggest (relatively speaking) offseason addition yet: Martín Pérez.

The veteran starting pitcher agreed to a one-year, $5MM contract with the White Sox on Wednesday. Before officially announcing the deal, the club must open a space for Pérez on the 40-man roster. The last several players the White Sox have DFA’d have all been position players, making it increasingly likely they will part with a pitcher to add the southpaw Pérez.

MLB Mailbag: Lux, Giants, Orioles, Rockies, Blue Jays

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Today's mailbag gets into the Gavin Lux trade, the Yankees' infield, the Giants' ability to add a bat, how the Orioles could trade for a top starter, what a Blake Street Bombers Part 2 lineup could look like for the Rockies, why some free agents don't sign in Toronto, why the Astros aren't getting more flak for trading Kyle Tucker, and more.

Kyle asks:

What's your take on the Lux trade to Cincinnati? As a Mariners fan I'm a bit irked they wouldn't beat the Reds offer (M's have comp A pick #33, Reds traded #37 and a prospect for Lux). Are the M's being too risk averse?

Leonard asks:

I heard on MLB TV that the Reds really like Gavin Lux’s versatility to play multiple positions. Isn’t that one of the reasons the Dodgers traded him? (Besides the surplus of middle infielders). Lux is an average 2B. He couldn’t make the throws from SS. He didn’t show that he could play 3B or the OF well enough, either. Comments?

Jeff asks:

After the Gavin Lux trade, how much playing time do you think Noelvi Marte gets this year?

Dante asks:

Do you think the Lux trade for the Reds was in anticipation of another move, something like a trade from infield depth for Luis Robert? I understand the desire to add good players, but they do seem to have stockpiled a lot of infielders, and the team seems to need some pop in the middle of the lineup.

Elliott asks:

After the Gavin Lux acquisition, who is the best fit for the Reds' next move? Probably a right-handed hitting outfielder at this point?

Colin asks:

I have always liked Gavin Lux although he has not yet developed into the star he was projected to be. That said, I wonder if the trade clears the way for Mookie Betts to return to his more natural position of second base with Rojas and Kim splitting duty at shortstop? I would note too that it clears a roster spot for Sasaki, if they are fortunate enough to sign him. Your thoughts?

Jason asks:

What do you make of the Gavin Lux trade? Did the Dodgers have enough of him or did they like Alex Freeland enough to platoon with Kim?

Lux is a 27-year-old platoon second baseman.  He saved his season with a hot streak that I'd say ran from July 11th through September 4th.  In that period, Lux posted a huge 181 wRC+ in 161 plate appearances.  He then posted a 80 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances for the rest of the regular season, adding another 43 postseason PA with a .177/.286/.294 line.

Prior to his eight-week hot streak, Lux was one of the ten worst-hitting regular position players in baseball over a span of 264 plate appearances.  On the season, Lux was heavily shielded against left-handed pitching, facing southpaws only 10.3% of the time.  That's for good reason - he posted an absymal 17 wRC+ against lefties in those 50 PA.

In comments on MLB.com, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall pointed to this October 4th article from Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs to help explain Lux's second half efforts to swing harder and do more damage.  Lux's changes were real; he clearly started swinging harder.  You can read more about those changes in this August 8th article from Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic.

Lux has a 108 wRC+ against righties over 1,210 plate appearances in his career.  The eight-week streak isn't enough to convince me he's changed, especially since he struggled again for the last 105 PA of his season.

All that said, Lux is a 27-year-old former first rounder.  There is upside here where swinging harder leads to a 120 wRC+, he holds his own against lefties as he did in 2022, and he becomes a 4-5 WAR player and borderline star.  Maybe he can become adequate at positions than other second base, too.  I don't think the Reds are likely to get that out of him when the Dodgers couldn't, but perhaps being back in the midwest and out of the spotlight will help.

Defensively, Krall said Lux will play second base, some outfield, and DH, and the team would "give him a look" at third base and shortstop.  Lux famously had issues making the throw from shortstop; it's hard to see how third base would be any better.  He showed seventh percentile arm strength this year, probably ruling out right field.  Lux dabbled in left field as recently as 2022, so I could see him getting time there.  The idea of Lux being versatile is overstated the way it once was when Jurickson Profar couldn't find a position.  So yes, I agree with what Leonard said in his question above.

As a second baseman, Lux was slightly below-average in Statcast's OAA this year.  So I believe what the Reds have in Lux is two affordable years of a platoon second baseman who needs to be on the bench 27% of the time but is capable of a 108 wRC+ against righties.  That's a useful player.

But what if I told you there was a free agent, also controllable for two years, who would sign for $3.5MM and could pretty much do the same things as Lux, but has also demonstrated he can play third base well?

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