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Chris Stratton

Chris Stratton Elects Free Agency

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Right-hander Chris Stratton has elected free agency, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The Dodgers had sent him outright to Triple-A Oklahoma City, indicating he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment a few days ago. However, he has exercised his right to head to the open market.

Stratton, 34, has been on and off the Dodgers’ roster in recent weeks. He was released by the Royals a couple of weeks ago. That left Kansas City on the hook for what’s left of the two-year, $8MM deal he signed ahead of the 2024 campaign. Any other team can sign him and only pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Royals pay.

The Dodgers have done so twice in recent weeks. The first time resulted in Stratton making two appearances before being designated for assignment. He went unclaimed on waivers, elected free agency and then re-signed with them. In the second stint, he made just one appearance before getting the DFA treatment again. As a player with at least five years of service time, he can reject an outright assignment and keep his salary commitments in place.

The Dodgers currently have 14 pitchers on the injured list and they have been trying various methods to keep the staff fresh. They are also a third-time competitive balance tax payor and are above the top line this year, meaning they face a 110% tax on any new spending. Stratton has therefore been a nice fit for them as a veteran arm who has been both cheap and available.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him reunite with the Dodgers yet again but he is now free to discuss opportunities with all clubs. Los Angeles just got Michael Kopech and Kirby Yates off the IL, perhaps lessening their need to sign Stratton a third time.

Stratton hasn’t been in great form lately. Since signing that aforementioned deal with the Royals, he has a 6.13 earned run average in 79 1/3 innings. His 18.3% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate in that time are both subpar figures, though he’s been getting grounders at a healthy 46% clip.

But he does have years of previous experience as an effective big league reliever. From 2020 to 2023, he logged 255 1/3 innings with a 3.91 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 41.9% ground ball rate. Since there’s no real cost in picking him up, he should land a new deal in the coming days.

Photo courtesy of William Purnell, Imagn Images

Dodgers Place Tony Gonsolin On 15-Day IL; Activate Michael Kopech, Kirby Yates

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The Dodgers’ injury-plagued bullpen got some reinforcements today, as the team activated Kirby Yates from the 15-day injured list and Michael Kopech from the 60-day injured list.  Right-hander Chris Stratton was designated for assignment to open up space for Kopech on the 26-man and 40-man rosters, while Yates returns to take the place of yet another injured pitcher, as Los Angeles placed Tony Gonsolin on the 15-day IL due to right elbow discomfort.

Turning to Gonsolin first, the idea of another elbow issue is particular ominous for a pitcher who is only just returning from a Tommy John surgery.  Recovering from that August 2023 procedure kept Gonsolin sidelined for all of last season, and then a back injury suffered during Spring Training delayed his 2025 debut until April 30, and Gonsolin has since posted a 5.00 ERA over 36 innings and seven starts.

It is perfectly normal for pitchers to look rusty in the wake of such long absences from the mound, though there hasn’t been a lot to love about Gonsolin’s 2025 performance.  Pluses include an above-average 24.2% strikeout rate and the fact that his 93.5mph fastball velocity matches his pre-surgery career average, though Gonsolin was never a high-velo pitcher.  Beyond those numbers, Gonsolin has been allowing a lot of hard contact and been walking batters (11.2BB%) at an ungainly rate, plus the home run increase that emerged in 2023 has carried over to 2025.

Any lingering elbow issues could explain these struggles, though Gonsolin and the Dodgers can only hope that this discomfort is only a temporary problem.  Gonsolin is surely disappointed over being sidelined again so soon after returning to action, and Los Angeles has now lost another arm from its starting rotation.

Even with Kopech and Yates activated today, the Dodgers’ injured list stands heavy with pitchers, as 14 hurlers remain sidelined.  Gonsolin, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki comprise most of the rotation names on the list, with other starters like Gavin Stone, River Ryan, and Kyle Hurt gone for 2025 due to longer-term injuries.  Emmet Sheehan had a Tommy John surgery in May 2024 and is only in the early stages of a rehab assignment, but he could be available after the All-Star break.  Shohei Ohtani has also been ramping up his throwing progression and is expected to return to pitching in the second half, and by this point, the Dodgers may need Ohtani’s arm as much as the lineup has relied on his MVP-level bat.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, and Justin Wrobleski comprise the current makeshift L.A. rotation, and Ben Casparius is the likeliest candidate to get starts in Gonsolin’s place.  The question must again be asked if the Dodgers’ staff will ever reach a true breaking point on the pitching front, as the club has remarkably remained a top contender (and last year’s World Series champion) in spite of the seemingly never-ending stream of injured arms.

Getting Kopech and Yates back will at least deepen the relief corps, which recently lost former closer Evan Phillips to a Tommy John surgery.  Tanner Scott remains the Dodgers’ first choice for saves but manager Dave Roberts recently said Scott wasn’t a lock for the closer role, so an experienced former closer like Yates or perhaps Kopech might get some consideration for ninth-inning work.

Yates had a 4.34 ERA over 18 2/3 innings for the Dodgers, though his peripherals suggest that Yates has suffered from a lot of bad luck.  The right-hander returns after a three-week stint on the IL due to a hamstring strain, while Kopech is making his season debut.  Kopech dealt with some forearm soreness early in Spring Training, and then developed a shoulder impingement near the end of camp that led to his placement on the 15-day and eventually the 60-day IL as he needed more time to properly rebuild his arm strength.

Los Angeles signed Stratton to a Major League deal on May 25, and this is already the second time the righty has been DFA’ed during his brief time in Dodger Blue.  Stratton cleared waivers, opted for free agency over an outright assignment to Triple-A, and then quickly re-signed with the Dodgers just yesterday to a new contract.  After allowing a run during an inning of work in yesterday’s game, Stratton has a 6.75 ERA over four innings and three total appearances with L.A.  It could be that today’s move is a paper transaction that could see Stratton soon back with the Dodgers in a few days’ time, or he could again choose free agency and this time seek out a role on a new team.

Dodgers Re-Sign Chris Stratton

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The Dodgers announced that they’ve re-signed veteran reliever Chris Stratton to a major league deal. He had been designated for assignment on Monday. Stratton went unclaimed on waivers, elected free agency, and immediately returned on a fresh contract. Fellow righty Ryan Loutos was designated for assignment to open space on the active and 40-man rosters. Additionally, catcher Chuckie Robinson went unclaimed on waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Oklahoma City after being DFA on Tuesday, according to the MLB.com transaction log.

Stratton’s first stint as a Dodger lasted a week. He signed an MLB deal on May 25 and was DFA on June 2. He made two intervening appearances, giving up two runs while striking out five over three innings. Stratton had been released by Kansas City midway through May after allowing an earned run average approaching 8.00 across 17 appearances. That followed up a rough first year with the Royals, as Stratton posted a 5.55 ERA across 58 1/3 frames last year.

The 34-year-old owns a 6.09 ERA in 71 outings over the past two seasons. He’d been a capable middle reliever for the few years before that. Stratton worked 82 2/3 innings of 3.92 ball between the Cardinals and Rangers two seasons ago. His velocity has tapered off since then. Stratton averaged north of 93 MPH on his fastball a couple years back but is down to 91 this season.

He’ll return as a fresh arm in the middle innings who doesn’t cost the Dodgers anything financially. The Royals are on the hook for what remains of his $4.5MM salary. Los Angeles only pays him the prorated portion of the $760K minimum for whatever time he spends in the big leagues — the same amount they’d have paid Loutos.

Loutos, 26, landed with the Dodgers via DFA trade with St. Louis in early May. He has spent the majority of the past month in Triple-A, only twice appearing in the big leagues. Loutos gave up three runs in two innings to the Mets in mop-up work on Wednesday. He has allowed five runs in 5 1/3 major league innings. He has posted a 2.41 ERA over 18 2/3 Triple-A frames this year.

Robinson was dropped from the 40-man roster this week when the Dodgers signed José Ureña. They had just claimed him from the Angels. The 30-year-old catcher has a previous career outright, so he can either report to OKC or elect free agency and seek out other opportunities.

Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reported that Stratton was re-signing. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic was first on the Loutos DFA.

Dodgers Designate Chris Stratton For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced that they have acquired right-hander Will Klein from the Mariners in exchange for minor league lefty Joe Jacques, a move that was previously reported. They have also recalled righty Ryan Loutos. In corresponding moves, right-hander Noah Davis has been optioned to the minors and righty Chris Stratton has been designated for assignment.

Stratton, 34, was just signed about a week ago after being released by the Royals. He tossed three innings for the Dodgers over two appearances, allowing two earned runs and two walks and two hits while striking out five.

The veteran parlayed a solid 2023 season into a surprising two-year, $8MM deal with Kansas City going into 2024. But since signing that pact, he hasn’t been especially effective. He has thrown 78 1/3 innings dating back to the start of last season with a 6.09 earned run average. His 46.1% ground ball rate in that time is strong but his 18.2% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate are both a few ticks worse than average.

Since the Royals released Stratton, they remain on the hook for what’s left of his salary. Any other club can sign Stratton and only pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, as the Dodgers just did. That amount was subtracted from what the Royals paid.

The Dodgers were happy to grab a fresh veteran arm for a few days, but since they had no commitment to him, they have quickly jettisoned him for more fresh arms. He is likely to wind up on the open market again in the coming days and will see if another team is looking for bullpen reinforcements. He had a strong run of results from 2020 to 2023. In the last of those years, he tossed 82 2/3 innings with a 3.92 ERA, 24% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate.

Photo courtesy of William Purnell, Imagn Images

Dodgers Sign Chris Stratton

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The Dodgers have signed right-hander Chris Stratton to a major league deal, per a team announcement. Right-hander Bobby Miller was optioned to the minor leagues to make room on the active roster, while right-hander J.P. Feyereisen was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Stratton. Stratton’s signing was first reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed, though it is a major league contract.

Stratton, 34, was a first-round pick by the Giants back in 2012 and made his debut in 2016. He mostly pitched as a starter during those early years in San Francisco, but he was traded to the Angels prior to the 2019 season and in the years since then has been used almost exclusively as a reliever. The right-hander has bounced between Anaheim, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Texas, and Kansas City over the years, compiling a rather pedestrian 4.63 ERA (93 ERA+) and 3.96 FIP across 406 2/3 innings of work over the past six seasons. That includes a stretch of solid middle relief work with the Pirates, Cardinals, and Rangers for whom he pitched to a 3.91 ERA (109 ERA+) with a 3.51 FIP.

The right-hander’s work with the 2023 World Series champion Rangers was enough to earn him a two-year, $8MM guarantee from the Royals prior to the 2024 season that included an opt-out opportunity prior to the 2025 offseason. Stratton’s performance in Kansas City was not exactly what the Royals were hoping for, however, and he exercised his player option for 2025 after a rough campaign last year where he posted a 5.55 ERA in 57 appearances. Things continued to go poorly for Stratton this season, as his ERA ballooned all the way up to 7.94 in 17 innings of work before he was designated for assignment and eventually released by Kansas City earlier this week.

Those rough numbers may make it seem surprising that the Dodgers would bring Stratton into the fold on a big league deal, but his peripheral numbers do offer some reason for optimism. Stratton’s .443 BABIP this year is much too high to be sustainable, and his 58.5% strand rate suggests some bad luck when it comes to sequencing as well. The righty sports an above-average ground ball rate with improved strikeout and walk rates relative to last year. If he can pitch closer to his 4.13 FIP and 4.02 SIERA going forward, he could be a valuable middle relief piece for a Dodgers club that has a whopping 14 pitchers on the injured list.

Stratton’s addition means the end of the line for Feyereisen, at least in terms of his time with the Dodgers. Feyereisen has split this year between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, posting a lackluster 11.25 ERA in four innings of work overall. Feyereisen had a couple years of legitimate big league success, with a 1.90 ERA and a 3.44 FIP across 80 1/3 innings of work with the Brewers and Rays from 2021-22. He missed the entire 2023 season due to injury, however, and since he returned he’s struggled to a 9.00 in 15 innings. He also struggled at Triple-A with the Dodgers last year, but his brief stint with Arizona’s Reno affiliate saw him post a 2.25 ERA in ten outings. The Dodgers will now have one week to either work out a trade involving Feyereisen or attempt to pass him through waivers.

Royals Release Chris Stratton

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May 22: Stratton was released as expected, according to the MLB.com transaction log.

May 18: The Royals announced that right-hander Chris Stratton has been designated for assignment.  Fellow righty Jonathan Bowlan was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

The DFA probably closes the book on what has been a disappointing season-plus for Stratton in Kansas City.  Following four solid seasons of bullpen work from 2020-23 and a World Series ring with the 2023 Rangers, Stratton signed a two-year, $8MM free agent deal with the Royals during the 2023 Winter Meetings.  The contract paid Stratton $3.5MM in 2024, and he then could choose between a $4.5MM salary for 2025 or exercising an opt-out clause to re-enter free agency.

Stratton’s decision ended up being a pretty easy one, as he chose to stick with the $4.5MM after struggling to a 5.55 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the K.C. bullpen last year.  He also ended the season with a flexor strain his right forearm, and while he was able to return healthy for the start of Spring Training, the righty’s poor form continued into this year, as Stratton had a 7.94 ERA over 17 innings and 12 appearances in 2025.

Considering these numbers, it seems wholly unlikely that another team would claim Stratton on DFA waivers and absorb the remainder of his salary.  The probable scenario is that Stratton will be released after clearing waivers, leaving the Royals on the hook for the approximately $3.1MM still owed to the reliever.  If Stratton signs elsewhere and joins a Major League roster, his new team will only owe him the prorated portion of a big league minimum salary, which will be subtracted from the Royals’ $3.1MM commitment.

Bowlan has pitched in four MLB games spread out over the last three seasons, and his latest cup of coffee in the Show was two innings of scoreless ball in the Royals’ 7-3 loss to the Astros back on April 27.  Bowlan has worked mostly as a starter throughout his minor league career, but a transition into full-time relief pitching seems to be working wonders, as he has a 2.08 ERA, 35.7% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate in 17 1/3 bullpen innings for Triple-A Omaha this year.

The Royals could use Bowlan as a long man within their pen, or perhaps explore using him as a bulk pitcher (behind an opener) as the team figures out how to address some sudden rotation needs.  Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo were both placed on the 15-day IL yesterday, and while Noah Cameron is likely to take one of those open spots, there is no obvious answer for the other hole in the starting five.

Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton Exercise Player Options

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Outfielder Hunter Renfroe and reliever Chris Stratton triggered player options in their deals with the Royals, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X links). Kansas City declined its end of a mutual option on infielder Adam Frazier, per Feinsand. In other Royals’ news, lefty reliever Josh Taylor elected free agency, according to the MLB.com transaction log. Kansas City evidently ran him through outright waivers instead of reinstating him from the 60-day injured list.

All three option decisions went as expected. Renfroe, Stratton and Frazier each signed as free agents last winter. None had a particularly good season. That made it a straightforward call for the players who could return to pass on their chances to retest the market, while the front office had a similarly easy call to move on from Frazier.

Renfroe returns on a $7.5MM salary. He’ll look to improve on this year’s middling .229/.297/.392 slash line. Renfroe hit 15 homers but reached base at less than a .300 clip for a second consecutive season. It was a replacement level performance altogether. He’ll be penciled back in as the starting right fielder for the moment, but the corner outfield is a clear area for the front office to try to upgrade.

Stratton secures a $4.5MM salary. His deal contained a $500K buyout, so that was a $4MM call. The veteran right-hander would probably be limited to minor league offers if he were a free agent. He struggled to a 5.55 earned run average through 58 1/3 innings this past season. It’s not a guarantee that the Royals keep him on the roster all winter. If they do bring him back, they’ll hope to get something closer to the 82 2/3 innings of 3.92 ball that he provided the Cardinals and Rangers in 2023.

Frazier gets a $2.5MM buyout instead of an $8.5MM salary. The former All-Star second baseman hasn’t hit much since being traded from Pittsburgh to San Diego in 2021. That continued during what looks like it’ll be his lone season in Kansas City. Frazier hit .202/.282/.294 while appearing in 104 games. Michael Massey outplayed him to take the second base job. Frazier might need to settle for a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite this winter.

As for Taylor, this effectively serves as an early non-tender. He was eligible for arbitration for a final time. While he was projected for a modest $1.1MM salary, the Royals didn’t want to create a 40-man roster spot after he missed the entire 2024 season. Taylor lost this year to a biceps injury and has also struggled with back issues in recent years.

Royals Place Chris Stratton On 15-Day Injured List

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The Royals placed right-hander Chris Stratton on the 15-day injured list due to a right forearm flexor strain.  Left-hander Angel Zerpa was called up from Triple-A Omaha in the corresponding move.

Only 16 days remain in the regular season, so between the calendar and the usually serious nature nature of forearm and flexor-related injuries, it seems likely that Stratton’s 2024 campaign is over.  If the strain is mild, Stratton could conceivably return to action if the Royals make a deep playoff run, but the larger concern at this point could be whether or not the 34-year-old could be facing a surgical procedure that could threaten some (or all) of his 2025 season.

Stratton has allowed five runs over his last two appearances and two innings of work, but even if his injury factored into these rough outings, the righty has already been struggling in his first season in Kansas City.  Stratton has a 5.55 ERA over 58 1/3 innings, along with a 17.1% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate that are both far below the league average.  The K% and BB% rates are both career lows for Stratton over a full MLB season, while his ERA is only a touch better than the 5.57 ERA he posted with the Angels and Pirates in 2019.

The right-hander bounced back from that tough 2019 campaign with solid results and a full-time move to relief pitching over the next four years, posting a 3.91 ERA in 255 1/3 frames with the Pirates, Cardinals, and Rangers.  That includes a 3.92 ERA and a career-best 7.4% walk rate in 82 2/3 innings with St. Louis and Texas last year, and four more innings in the playoffs as Stratton won a World Series ring on the Rangers’ championship squad.

That performance provided a platform for Stratton to land a two-year, $8MM free agent deal with the Royals this past winter.  The deal is technically a one-year contract with a player option for 2025, as Stratton can choose to take either a $500K buyout or remain in the last year of the deal for a $4.5MM salary next season.  Between his subpar performance and now this injury, Stratton seems like a lock to pass on his opt-out clause.

While Stratton wasn’t delivering much in the way of results, his absence will leave K.C. short of an innings-eating bullpen arm.  Zerpa’s 4.40 ERA over 47 innings could provide a bit of a boost, but Stratton joins Will Smith (back spasms) and Hunter Harvey (mid-back tightness) on the list of injured Royals relievers.  In Harvey’s case, MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes that Harvey has started throwing but the team isn’t yet sure when or if the right-hander might able to return to action.

2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

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The Cardinals have spent their offseason focused on adding pitching, having already signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn to fill out the club’s rotation while trading for Andrew Kittredge, Nick Robertson and Victor Santos to bolster their bullpen depth. In a recent mailbag, The Athletic’s Katie Woo discussed St. Louis’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Regarding the bullpen, Woo notes that while the Cardinals have been active in the free agent relief market this offseason, the club doesn’t appear to be interested in a major addition like relief ace Josh Hader, instead preferring to shop in the lower tiers of the market. Woo relays that the club hopes to add another reliever to their bullpen with a contract in the range of around $5MM annually. She also notes that the club had interest in a reunion with right-hander Chris Stratton, who the club landed alongside Jose Quintana in a deal with the Pirates at the 2022 trade deadline before flipping him to the Rangers alongside Jordan Montgomery last summer, before the veteran inked a two-year, $8MM deal with the Royals.

Of course, it’s important to note that this report from Woo was published before the Cardinals and Rays got together on a trade to send veteran righty Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis yesterday afternoon. Kittredge is projected for a salary of just $2.3MM in 2024 by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Given the righty’s modest projected salary, it’s possible that his addition wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Cardinals from making another relief addition, whether by free agency or trade. At the same time, Woo indicates that the club is “high” on its internal relief corps and could look to make only one more addition, which the Kittredge deal would account for. If St. Louis does dip into the free agent relief market, Woo indicates that lefty Matt Moore and right-hander Phil Maton could be in the club’s price range this winter.

Each of Stratton, Moore, and Maton have been valuable bullpen pieces for contending clubs in recent years, though neither Stratton nor Maton have posted the sort of elite numbers that would make them clear back-end arms like Hader or former Cardinal Jordan Hicks; Maton has a 3.67 ERA since joining the Astros midway through the 2021 season, while Stratton has posted a 3.92 ERA over the past three seasons. Moore, by contrast, has posted a fantastic 2.20 ERA and respectable 3.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings the past two seasons, making him one of the more effective set-up options on the market. With that being said, the lefty is entering his age-35 campaign in 2024 and seems unlikely to land a longer-term commitment from interested clubs. The Cardinals have also reportedly expressed interest in Ryan Brasier, who struggled badly (7.29 ERA) with the Red Sox earlier in the 2023 campaign before dominating (0.70 ERA) down the stretch with the Dodgers last season.

While it’s not entirely clear what the Cardinals’ bullpen plans are following the addition of Kittredge, Woo indicates that the club is likely done adding to its rotation this winter. She writes that a reunion with Montgomery or a deal for another top free agent starter like Shota Imanaga or Blake Snell is “incredibly unlikely” as the club doesn’t have interest in offering a nine-figure contract this winter, a benchmark each of the aforementioned southpaws appears likely to surpass. While Woo acknowledges that the club’s front office could explore trades for starting pitching, she describes the pursuits as “neither a high priority nor highly likely” to result in an addition this winter. Right-handers Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber have both been seen as likely trade candidates this offseason, while the likes of Corbin Burnes and Jesus Luzardo have occasionally seen their names floated in the rumor mill as well. The Cards have been loosely connected to Cease recently but otherwise haven’t come up often as a potential suitor for a starter in the rumor mill this winter.

It would be something of a surprise if Kittredge proved to be the club’s final pitching addition this winter. After all, the Cardinals noted that they planned to add “at least two” relievers this offseason in addition to their goal of adding three starters, which they completed by adding Gray, Gibson, and Lynn. By contrast, Kittredge is the only relief arm they’ve added to this point with a substantial track record in the majors. While the likes of Robertson, minor league signing Wilking Rodriguez and Rule 5 draftee Ryan Fernandez all provide depth, none of them figure to be the sort of reliable source of quality production the Cardinals lacked in 2023.

If the Cardinals do come up short in their goal of adding multiple relievers to their bullpen mix, it’s fair to wonder if they’ll have done enough to put themselves back into contention in the NL Central after finishing fifth in their division with a 91-loss campaign in 2023. While the club is surely hoping for rebound seasons from veteran stars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt to lift the offense, the club’s pitching staff was primarily the cause of St. Louis’s difficult season last year. Cardinals starters posted a 5.08 ERA in the rotation last year that ranked fifth-worst in the majors, while their bullpen was the eighth-worst by that same metric.

The addition of Gray to the club’s rotation figures to provide a significant boost, but both Gibson and Lynn are coming off down seasons of their own while internal options like Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Matthew Liberatore all come with their own question marks, though internal youngsters like Sem Robberse could impact the club in 2024 and provide depth behind the established arms. As for the bullpen, both Kittredge and internal southpaw JoJo Romero have flashed tantalizing upside in the past but offer little certainty headed into 2024. That goes for most of the club’s relief corps with the exceptions of Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos, though even they dealt with injury and under-performance issues respectively last season. Signing an arm like Moore or Maton to bolster the bullpen could go a long way to helping St. Louis return to form next season, particularly given the relative inaction of the rest of the division aside from Cincinnati this winter.

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