Rockies Defeat Wilin Rosario In Arbitration
The Rockies have defeated catcher Wilin Rosario in the sides’ recent arbitration hearing, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. Rosario will, accordingly, take home $2.8MM rather than his filing figure of $3.3MM.
Colorado may have been able to sway the panel by pointing out Rosario’s defensive shortcomings and relatively poor 2014, because it drove the price down a fair sight shy of the $3.6MM that MLBTR/Matt Swartz had projected. Rosario has consistently received rather poor defensive marks (see, e.g., Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs), and pitch framing metrics have not been kind (Baseball Prospectus; Stat Corner). That put an even less promising spin on Rosario’s below-average .267/.305/.435 slash, which was good only for a park-adjusted 86 wRC+.
Of course that kind of offensive production is still not bad at all for a catcher. And Rosario, who battled injuries last year, has shown the ability to do much more. Still just 25, Rosario slashed .282/.314/.507 and hit 49 total home runs over just 892 plate appearances from 2012-13.
In addition to saving half a million dollars against the alternative scenario in the binary arbitration decision, Colorado gets the added benefit of holding down Rosario’s earnings for the following two years of eligibility. The slugger will need to earn his playing time this year, though he may be afforded additional turns at bat by slotting in at first base or even the corner outfield.
Indians To Sign Bruce Chen To Minors Deal
WEDNESDAY: Chen has an opt-out in his deal that can be triggered at the end of the spring, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (Twitter link).
It is worth noting that, because he did not finish the 2014 season on a 40-man roster, Chen does not qualify as an Article XX(B) free agent. The negotiated opt-out clause, then, replaces the protections he would otherwise have received.
MONDAY: The Indians have agreed to a minor league pact with veteran southpaw Bruce Chen, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. Chen can earn a $1MM salary if he makes the club, and can also achieve up to $1MM in incentives.
Chen, 37, has worked to a 4.58 lifetime ERA over parts of sixteen MLB seasons. The swingman earned a $3.25MM free agent guarantee with the Royals after putting up good results in 2013, but was released in September after posting a rough 7.45 ERA in his 48 1/3 frames last year.
Cleveland marks the 11th MLB club that Chen has suited up for. The Indians rotation looks to be a tough nut to crack, and the team does have a variety of left-handed pen options in tow already, but Chen’s salary possibilities suggest that he likely drew interest elsewhere and picked Cleveland for a reason.
As with fellow veteran lefty Barry Zito, who also struck a deal tonight, Chen has experienced a significant decrease in fastball velocity in recent years despite an already-low starting point. In 2014, his average heater dipped under 86 mph for the first time in his career, though Chen still managed to set down 6.7 batters per nine by strikeout.
Central Notes: Youkilis, Liriano, Murphy, Tigers
Recently-retired veteran Kevin Youkilis will be joining the Cubs as a special assistant, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports on Twitter. The connection will be obvious for many: Youkilis rose to prominence and made most of his impact on the field playing for former Red Sox GM and current Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein.
Here’s more from the central divisions:
- Pirates starter Francisco Liriano held talks with the Red Sox, Twins, Astros, and Royals before re-signing with Pittsburgh, the lefty told Dan Zangrilli of 93.7 The Fan (Twitter links). Kansas City went as high as $36MM over three years, said Liriano, who ultimately took home $39MM from the Pirates. Interestingly, Liriano noted that he felt the qualifying offer did not significantly hinder his market.
- If Brandon Moss and Nick Swisher prove their health this spring, outfielder David Murphy (or another roster candidate) will likely need to be dealt before breaking camp, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. It may be hard to find a taker without eating a good bit of Murphy’s $6MM salary, should that come to pass. For now, this remains an interesting story to watch over the coming months.
- While the Tigers do have some worrying signs in their large contracts and low-rated farm, they are not yet facing the kind of difficulties that the Phillies have found, Mike Petriello of Fangraphs writes. If nothing else, Detroit still looks to be legitimately competitive at present, and has time to prepare for a soft landing when its window does finally begin closing.
Free Agent Notes: Moncada, Olivera, O’s, McGowan
The agent for Cuban teenager Yoan Moncada, David Hastings, says that “offers are coming in,” Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. Hastings says he is “still hopeful” that he and his client “can make a decision soon.” Last we heard from Hastings, on Valentine’s Day, he indicated that no formal offers had been made and softened somewhat the idea that Moncada would be in position to sign by February 23rd. While there appears to be some movement, the precise timeline remains uncertain.
- The market for more advanced Cuban infielder (and, presumably, soon-to-be free agent) Hector Olivera seems quite robust. Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons has heard from additional team executives, and he counts at least five that predict a deal of $70MM or more for Olivera. (Twitter link.)
- The Orioles may not be done adding, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. That holds true even if the club’s deal with Everth Cabrera is finalized, presumably, as the report indicates that Baltimore is expected to sign at least one more pitcher to a minor league deal.
- One arm that the O’s have been connected to is Dustin McGowan. Another team that has expressed interest in the 32-year-old, the Twins, is not expected to land the free agent righty, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets.
NL West Notes: O’Dowd, Rockies, Trumbo
Former Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd has joined the MLB Network as a studio analyst, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. O’Dowd resigned from his post after 15 years at the helm of the Rockies last October and was replaced by understudy Jeff Bridich, who worked with O’Dowd for 10 years prior to the switch.
Here’s more on the Senior Circuit’s Western Division…
- Saunders also conducted a Q&A with Rockies skipper Walt Weiss and discussed, among many things, the club’s offseason and Weiss’ role in constructing the roster. Asked about his role in shaping the roster, Weiss said that he “certainly spent a lot of time” not only with Bridich, but with others in the front office. “I enjoyed it,” Weiss added. “We talked about how passionate we are about certain things, as it relates to our club and the game in general. There was a period there where we worked to build a working foundation for now and the future.” Beyond that, Weiss expressed excitement over Bridich’s sharing of his player development background, which gave the manager an even better grasp of the team’s minor league system and future.
- The Diamondbacks are preparing for an arbitration hearing with outfielder Mark Trumbo, reports MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. Arizona filed at $5.3MM after Trumbo submitted a $6.9MM figure, leaving a fairly substantial gulf. With one more season of eligibility to come, and Trumbo’s 2016 salary built off of whatever base he ends up with this year, the stakes are that much higher.
2016 Free Agent Power Rankings
With the sun setting on the 2014-15 free agent class, it’s time to turn our attention to the 2015-16 group. These players project to become free agents after the 2015 season, unless they sign contract extensions first. A few extensions are likely, but for now the 2015-16 free agent class has no shortage of star power. MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents can be found here.
What exactly are we ranking here? The simplest explanation would be earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder. Of course, nothing affects a free agent’s earning power more than his most recent season, so I’ll be updating these rankings monthly.
1. Justin Upton. Upton possesses the profile that most often results in a monster contract: power, youth, and durability. He doesn’t turn 28 until August, so his next team might be able to avoid paying him into his late 30s. The first overall draft pick in 2005, Upton has hit 26 or more home runs in four of his six full seasons, including the last two. He peaked at 31 bombs in 2011, and given his pedigree, there’s an underlying assumption that he’s capable of hitting 35-40. With the December trade to San Diego, Upton must verify his power in a home ballpark where longballs go to die. He’s nothing special defensively; Upton’s chance at Robinson Cano money or better lies in good old-fashioned baseball card stats.
2. Jason Heyward. Upton’s former teammate can challenge his ranking with a big year for the Cardinals. Unlike Upton, Heyward didn’t surrender any potential free agent years through a mid-career extension. The result: Heyward doesn’t turn 26 until August. That’s about as young as a star free agent can reasonably be, given the requirement of six years of Major League service. Heyward seemed destined for MVP awards after he finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting with a great season at age 20. However, he hasn’t been able to repeat his .393 on-base percentage from that season, and he missed large chunks of the 2011 and ’13 seasons due to injuries. Heyward hit 27 home runs in 2012, so he still owns that skill despite hitting just 25 in the two subsequent seasons. More than his offense, Heyward’s value is derived from Gold Glove defense in right field. If he posts another slugging percentage under .400, his free agency will be a litmus test of whether teams will pay superstar money for superstar defense. If he couples that defense with rediscovered 25+ home run power, Heyward could sign the largest free agent contract in baseball history.
3. David Price. This is a very strong crop of free agent starting pitchers at present, but Price is the best. 30 in August, Price won the AL Cy Young award in 2012 and finished sixth in the voting last year. Last year he tossed 256 1/3 total innings with a career-best strikeout rate, while maintaining the excellent control he established in 2013. The only real blemish on his health record is a 47-day DL stint in ’13 for a triceps strain. If he racks up innings this year for the Tigers with another low-3s ERA, he might be able to exceed $200MM without relying on deferred money to get there.
4. Ian Desmond. The Nationals’ shortstop rejected a seven-year, $107MM extension offer during the 2013-14 offseason, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Kilgore reported that the offer was actually only for five additional seasons, and it included deferred money. Desmond, 30 in September, has the potential to exceed $200MM on the open market with another strong season. In terms of wins above replacement, he’s easily been the game’s best shortstop since 2012. Desmond offers the extremely rare combination of power, durability, speed, and solid shortstop defense. However, his contact rate dipped below 70% for the first time in 2014, and a continuation of that trend would affect his earning power.
5. Johnny Cueto. Only Clayton Kershaw‘s brilliance prevented Cueto from winning the NL Cy Young award in 2014. Cueto, who turned 29 last Sunday, posted a 2.25 ERA over 243 2/3 innings last year with a career-best strikeout rate. That was a huge workload, especially since Cueto was limited to 11 starts in 2013 due to a shoulder strain. He missed significant time in 2011 with shoulder issues as well. Cueto can set aside some concerns with a DL-free 2015 campaign. Potential bonus: he could become ineligible for a qualifying offer if the Reds trade him during the season.
6. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann, 29 in May, finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting last year. A few factors put him below Cueto: he doesn’t go particularly deep into games, and he’s generally posted strikeout rates below the league average prior to 2014. That might be nitpicking – Zimmermann has great control and a 3.00 ERA since 2011. He had Tommy John surgery in August 2009 and has avoided the DL since.
7. Alex Gordon. Gordon is an older version of Heyward – an occasionally underpowered corner outfielder who posted a huge WAR last year on the strength of great defense. Gordon still has 39 home runs over the last two seasons, though, so he’s shown more recent pop than Heyward. Gordon, drafted by the Royals directly after Upton in ’05, delayed his free agency by two years with an extension in 2012. As such, he recently turned 31. As Shin-Soo Choo can attest, that’s still young enough to garner a contract well above $100MM. In August, Gordon told Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star he plans to pick up his 2016 player option, which appears to be worth $14MM. If the Royals are willing to double their current franchise record $55MM contract, an extension could be possible, but I don’t think there’s much chance of Gordon simply picking up that player option when it comes due.
8. Zack Greinke. After the 2015 season, Greinke must decide whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $71MM left on his contract. That wouldn’t be worth doing for something similar to the four-year, $75MM contract James Shields just received, but Greinke will be a year younger than Shields was. So far Greinke has a 2.68 ERA in 380 innings in his two seasons for the Dodgers, with his strikeout rate bumping back up in 2014. Another healthy season with an ERA around 3.00 would instill confidence in a potential five-year deal, in which case Greinke would be expected to opt out to try to lock in $100MM+ in new money.
9. Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija, 30, made his first All-Star team in 2014. He posted a 2.99 ERA in 219 2/3 innings for the Cubs and A’s after posting a 4.10 ERA in his previous two seasons as a starter. It was clear that Samardzija’s 2012-13 ERAs were inflated beyond his skill level. He’s a horse who works at 94-95 miles per hour, and he’s never been on the disabled list. A wide receiver at Notre Dame, Samardzija didn’t commit fully to baseball until the Cubs drafted him in ’06. He also spent much of his early big league career as a reliever. The result is less mileage on his arm than any of the pitchers listed above him, even including Zimmermann. He could easily wind up being a better bet for the next five or six years than his rival free agent starters. Samardzija was traded to the White Sox in December.
10. Matt Wieters. Wieters, 29 in May, saw his season end on May 10th of last year due to an elbow issue. The catcher had Tommy John surgery in June and expects to be ready for Opening Day. Will he be able to throw out baserunners? Wieters, who was drafted by the Orioles fifth overall in 2007, also must answer questions about his bat. He slumped to a .704 OPS in 2013, but had a great first month in ’14. Wieters tallied a mammoth 4,600 innings behind the dish from 2010-13, and it’s difficult to say when that workload will catch up to him. Wieters could get a nine-figure contract this offseason, but only if all of these questions are answered with a strong year.
Plenty of other players will be vying to break into our top ten throughout the season, including Ben Zobrist, Yoenis Cespedes, Denard Span, Howie Kendrick, Steve Pearce, Rick Porcello, Mat Latos, Doug Fister, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Chris Davis. You can check out the full 2015-16 free agent list here.
Francisco Rodriguez Seeking $10MM In 2015
Though multiple teams have shown interest in Francisco Rodriguez this offseason, he remains unsigned, with previous reports indicating that he and agent Scott Boras are holding out for a two-year deal. It appears, however, that K-Rod is willing to take a one-year pact, but at a premium price, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter) that he’s seeking a $10MM contract heading into the 2015 season.
News that Kenley Jansen underwent surgery that would sideline him for eight to 12 weeks spawned immediate speculation that K-Rod (or fellow Boras client Rafael Soriano) could land in Los Angeles. Indications since the announcement of Jansen’s foot surgery, though, are that the Dodgers won’t make a reactionary splash. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted that K-Rod would only be a consideration for the Dodgers on their own terms, and a $10MM commitment hardly seems likely to match that description.
While the notion of Rodriguez seeking a one-year, $10MM contract back in October or November wouldn’t have seemed completely far-fetched — we at MLBTR predicted he’d find a two-year, $14MM deal — it seems difficult to imagine at this juncture. Most teams have spent their offseason budget and have little financial wiggle room. The best chance of Rodriguez finding such a deal would be in the event that another closer lost its closer for a more significant amount of time than the Dodgers currently stand to be without Jansen.
Rodriguez’s reported asking price figures to elicit a collective eye roll from many fans, but it should at least be noted that he did enjoy a very strong bottom-line results in Milwaukee last year. The 33-year-old recorded 44 saves with a 3.04 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate in 68 innings. Many have been quick to criticize his season because he rated below replacement level per Fangraphs’ version of WAR, but that valuation is based on his 4.50 FIP. Baseball-Reference valued Rodriguez at 1.5 wins, and RA9-WAR agreed, valuing him at 1.3 wins. Other ERA estimators such as xFIP (2.91) and SIERA (2.58) feel that Rodriguez was as effective, if not more so than his ERA indicated in 2014. Rodriguez did post the best BB/9 rate of his career last season, and his swinging-strike rate was his best since 2011.
Those positive factors notwithstanding, $10MM is an aggressive goal for a 33-year-old reliever in mid-February, although Boras has pulled off larger feats in previous offseasons. To this point, the Brewers, Blue Jays and now Dodgers have been the teams most often linked to Rodriguez, but barring a drop in asking price, his eventual landing spot may be with a team that doesn’t even have a clear need for a closer at the moment.
Latest On The Dodgers’ Bullpen
The Dodgers will be without Kenley Jansen through at least mid-April and possibly mid-May after their elite closer underwent surgery on his left foot this morning, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has indicated to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick that the front office’s initial plan is to evaluate its in-house alternatives at closer (Twitter link).
Though the team may not ultimately take a reactionary approach, the Dodgers will indeed check in on free agents Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano, tweets Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times. However, Shaikin adds that he feels it’s more likely the Dodgers will add a middle relief option than a closer, considering Jansen figures to miss a maximum of six weeks (barring setbacks) and is suffering from an injury that is not related to his arm.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports seems to agree with the thought that a reactionary move is unlikely, tweeting that it’d be a “shock” to see the team make a desperation move. Signing K-Rod would only happen if Rodriguez were to sign at the Dodgers’ price, Rosenthal notes, and that seems rather unlikely, considering the fact that Rodriguez and agent Scott Boras have reportedly been holding out for a two-year deal.
The Dodgers’ most experienced options to replace Jansen for the early portion of the season include J.P. Howell, Brandon League and Joel Peralta. Of that trio, only League comes with significant closing experience, though there’s no guarantee that that will play a significant factor in the decision. Paco Rodriguez, Juan Nicasio, Chris Hatcher and Pedro Baez represent 40-man options, while non-roster invitees David Aardsma and Sergio Santos have closing experience as well.
Minor Moves: Aaron Northcraft, Henry Rodriguez
We’ll keep tabs on the day’s minor moves here:
- Padres right-hander Aaron Northcraft cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A El Paso, tweets Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Northcraft, acquired along with Justin Upton from the Braves this offseason, was designated for assignment when San Diego made the James Shields signing official. He posted a 4.30 ERA in 130 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in the Braves organization last year.
- Among yesterday’s minor league signings announced by the Red Sox, some of which were previously reported, was infielder Henry Rodriguez (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe; Twitter links). Not to be confused with the pitcher of the same name, the 25-year-old utility infielder has just 26 MLB plate appearances to his credit. A native of Venezuela, Rodriguez has struggled to sub-.700 OPS campaigns in 2012-13 at Triple-A. Released by the Reds last spring, Rodriguez did not appear in any affiliated or independent league action in 2014.
Kenley Jansen Out 8-12 Weeks Following Foot Surgery
The Dodgers have announced that standout closer Kenley Jansen has undergone foot surgery that comes with an eight- to 12-week timeline for recovery. Via Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts, the Dodgers’ PR team released the following statement:
“This morning at Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles, Dodger pitcher Kenley Jansen underwent surgery to remove a growth from a bone in his left foot. This was discovered when Kenley reported discomfort while running last week. A subsequent X-Ray, MRI and CT scan showed the problem in the 5th metatarsal of his left foot. The surgery was performed by Drs. Earl Brien and David Thordarson under the direction of Dr. Neal ElAttrache.
Jansen will be on crutches for about 10 days and then a boot for 3-4 weeks. How he progresses during the rehab process will determine his return to competition, but it is expected to be approximately 8-12 weeks.”
An eight-week recovery would mean that Jansen is ready to go come April 14, whereas a 12-week recovery would keep him shelved through May 12. While the Dodgers possess a deep roster that many consider to be among the most talented in the game, the loss of Jansen for upwards of six weeks of the regular season would be a significant blow, particularly considering the fact that the bullpen is considered to be an area of weakness.
Joel Peralta, Paco Rodriguez, J.P. Howell and Brandon League all seem like locks to open the year in the Dodger ‘pen, while other candidates include Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez and Juan Nicasio. The Dodgers have also brought in David Huff, Sergio Santos, Erik Bedard and, most recently, David Aardsma as non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Among that group, Santos and Aardsma do have closing experience, though neither seems likely to go from minor league signee to primary ninth-inning option for manager Don Mattingly.
The news of Jansen’s injury makes yesterday’s report that the Dodgers are seeking to add another bullpen arm more logical. Among the free agent options for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Farhan Zaidi and VP Josh Byrnes to choose from are Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Coke. Jonathan Papelbon is also, of course, available on the trade market and was quite effective closing games for the Phillies last winter. For what it’s worth, Friedman should be plenty familiar with Soriano, as Soriano spent the 2010 season — arguably the best of his career — with the Rays.