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A’s Looking To Add Third Baseman, “Wouldn’t Rule Out” Another SP Addition

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7:26pm: The A’s inquired after Bohm with the Phillies, according to a report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, but Philadelphia’s request for star closer Mason Miller in return for Bohm’s services reportedly ended those discussions.

5:49pm: As the Athletics gear up to play the 2025 campaign in their temporary home of West Sacramento while waiting on a more permanent move to Las Vegas, they’ve made an effort to put a more competitive product on the field after showing signs of progress with a 32-32 record after the All-Star break during their final season in Oakland. Those efforts to bolster the roster started when they inked right-hander Luis Severino to a three-year deal and continued today when they landed left-hander Jeffrey Springs in a five-player trade with the Rays earlier today.

The addition of Severino and Springs to the top of the A’s rotation adds some credibility to the club entering 2025 after the club’s starters struggled to a 4.76 ERA that was a bottom five figure in the majors last year. Severino and Springs will front a rotation that currently also figures to feature JP Sears, Mitch Spence, and Joey Estes on Opening Day, but club GM David Forst indicated to reporters (including Martin Gallegos of MLB.com) that he “wouldn’t rule out” adding another starter to the mix. In addition to continuing to weigh a potential third rotation addition, Forst suggested (as relayed by Gallegos) that he intends to explore both the trade and free agent markets for a potential third base addition.

The A’s significant additions and newfound willingness to commit to a higher payroll come with off-the-field concerns attached in addition to desire to improve the roster on the field. Reporting earlier this week indicated that the A’s would run the risk of a grievance from the MLB Players Association if they don’t spend 150% of their revenue sharing money on MLB payroll. With the A’s reportedly expected to rake in $70MM or more in revenue sharing, that means they’ll need a payroll of $105MM or more for luxury tax purposes in order to avoid risking a grievance from the players’ union. After today’s trade to land Springs, RosterResource projects the club for an $88.5MM luxury tax payroll in 2025. That still leaves around $15MM in budget room for luxury tax purposes before they reach that $105MM benchmark, which ought to leave the door open for the club to another addition or two.

In the rotation, even a back-of-the-rotation veteran such as Andrew Heaney or Kyle Gibson (who the A’s were previously connected to prior to the Springs deal). would likely eat up most if not all of that $15MM. It’s at least theoretically possible the club could look to spend beyond that, however. Previous indications have suggested that the club was targeting a payroll in the $100MM range for 2025. Given that RosterResource’s projection for the club actual payroll in 2025 in terms of cash paid out is just over $64MM, that would leave substantially more room to spend than if the A’s are targeting a payroll in the $100MM range for luxury tax purposes. That could make both the addition of a back-end starter and a notable salary at third base feasible.

Turning to the hot corner, the position has been the focus of a number of different clubs in the rumor mill this winter. The Cubs dealt third baseman Isaac Paredes to the Astros just yesterday, and Houston’s longtime third baseman Alex Bregman remains one of the most coveted players on the free agent market. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have made clear their intentions of dealing Nolan Arenado this winter. The Angels, Tigers, Yankees, and Astros are among the other teams known to be in the market for third base help, while the Red Sox and Padres remain on the periphery of the market as teams with established third basemen who have been connected to potential third base options like Bregman and Arenado as solutions at other positions.

It’s nearly impossible to imagine a top-tier free agent like Bregman or a veteran with no-trade protection such as Arenado choosing to play out a long-term deal in West Sacramento, but that doesn’t mean the A’s are completely out of luck if they hope to add a third baseman to their roster this winter. Alec Bohm of the Phillies is one frequently-discussed trade candidate at the hot corner, and Diamondbacks veteran Eugenio Suarez has seen his name percolate in the rumor mill as another possible trade chip. Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco, Paul DeJong, and Yoan Moncada are among the potential third base options available in the lower tiers of the free agent market, and it’s possible that a club with an infield surplus such as the Blue Jays or Orioles could make someone like Davis Schneider or Ramon Urias available in trade.

Peter Lambert To Sign With NPB’s Yakult Swallows

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Right-hander Peter Lambert is poised to sign with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball on a one-year deal, according to a report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link). The report suggests that Lambert would earn a $1.6MM salary in 2025 if the deal is completed.

Lambert, 28 in April, was a second-round pick by the Rockies back in 2015. The right-hander made his MLB debut during the 2019 season and ultimately started 19 games for the Rockies that year, though the results left much to be desired as he struggled to a 7.25 ERA with a 5.97 FIP. Those figures were lackluster even for Coors Field in an offense-heavy environment as signaled by his 146 ERA- and 129 FIP- that suggest he was 46% and 29% worse than league average, respectively, by those metrics. Lambert struck out just 13.6% of his opponents in that rookie season while walking 8.6%.

That wound up being Lambert’s only big league exposure for quite some time, as he did not pitch during the shortened 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery that July. He returned to the big league mound near the end of September in 2021, but struggled badly in 5 2/3 innings before missing almost the entire 2022 season due to forearm and elbow issues. Finally healthy in 2023, Lambert returned to the mound and looked a bit better with a 5.36 ERA (108 ERA-) and a 5.44 FIP (119 FIP-) that were a bit closer to average. Lambert pitched 87 1/3 innings split between the rotation and the bullpen for Colorado that year with a career-best 18.9% strikeout rate and a 7.5 walk rate.

That was enough to put him in the conversation for a rotation spot with the Rockies to open the 2024 campaign, though he ultimately lost out on that role to Dakota Hudson. Lambert pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen this past year but took a bit of a step back, with a 5.72 ERA (123 ERA-) in 61 1/3 innings of work. With that being said, the right-hander’s 4.54 FIP (106 FIP-) was nearly league average as he got a better handle on his long-standing home run issues, allowing him to post playable numbers despite a career-worst 10.4% walk rate and a still-lackluster 17.9% strikeout rate.

Lambert was outrighted off of Colorado’s roster back in October and subsequently elected free agency. That’s now led Lambert to explore options overseas, and should his deal with the Swallows become official he’d earn the opportunity to attempt to re-establish himself as a pitcher in Japan while on a far more lucrative contract than he’d have found in the majors, where he’d surely have been limited to only minor league deals. Still a few years from his 30th birthday, there remains plenty of time for Lambert to figure things out overseas and attempt a comeback in the big leagues like many pitchers (such as Miles Mikolas and Matt Moore) have done in the past.

Latest On Blue Jays’ Offseason Pursuits

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The Blue Jays made a major splash during the Winter Meetings this past week, swinging a trade with the Guardians that sent slugger Spencer Horwitz (very briefly) to Cleveland in exchange for second baseman Andres Gimenez and right-hander Nick Sandlin. The club also reunited with right-hander Yimi Garcia on a two-year deal during the meetings to bolster their relief mix. Now that they’ve made those additions to the bullpen and infield Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet wrote about the club’s needs going forward into the rest of the offseason, noting that the club is interested in adding an impactful slugger to the middle of the lineup to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as well as a starting pitcher who could push Yariel Rodriguez into the bullpen for the club.

It’s hardly a surprise that the club is looking to upgrade the roster in these areas given the players they’ve been connected to this winter. In the aftermath of the club’s failed pursuit of Juan Soto, Toronto has been name-checked as a potential suitor for corner outfield sluggers like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander. Nicholson-Smith opines that the outfield appears to be the “most logical” place for the club to add impact now that the addition of Gimenez has helped to solidify the club’s infield mix, particularly given the fact that center fielder Daulton Varsho is expected to start the 2025 season on the injured list after undergoing surgery on his rotator cuff back in September.

With that said, Nicholson-Smith also suggests that the club could add a more defensively-limited player to their lineup as well after parting ways with a similarly limited player in Horwitz opened up additional DH reps. To that end, Nicholson-Smith reiterates the club’s interest in Hernandez while also floating two other names worth mentioning: free agent DH Joc Pederson and Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. Nicholson-Smith lists Pederson alongside Hernandez and Corbin Burnes among free agents the Jays have spoken to this winter, and he reports that the club is “believed to have shown some interest” in Naylor during their negotiations with Cleveland surrounding the Gimenez trade.

It’s the first time that Toronto has been directly connected to Pederson this winter, though it was just one year ago that the club was reported to have “strong interest” in the slugger before he ultimately signed with the Diamondbacks later in the winter. The soon to be 33-year-old put up a strong season in Arizona in 2024, slashing .275/.393/.515 with a 151 wRC+ in 449 trips to the plate. While Pederson’s massive platoon splits make him a somewhat lackluster option against opposing southpaws, the club’s deep group of young right-handed hitters like Leo Jimenez and Davis Schneider could be a natural fit to step into the lineup for him against tough lefties.

Naylor, meanwhile, is more of a true everyday player who sports a less significant platoon split and more defensive value but a less potent bat overall. The 27-year-old has some experience in the outfield corners but has primarily been a first baseman for the Guardians in recent year. 2024 saw Naylor slash a solid .243/.320/.456 (118 wRC+) that was mostly in line with previous years, as he’s a 121 wRC+ hitter overall since becoming a full-time player in 2022. It’s unclear if the Jays have interest in Naylor even after completing the Gimenez deal, but he certainly makes sense as a trade candidate for the Guardians given the $12MM salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for the slugger in his final trip through arbitration before he reaches free agency next winter. Cleveland has well-regarded youngster Kyle Manzardo available to step in as the regular first baseman should Naylor be dealt at some point this winter.

As for pitching, Nicholson-Smith suggests that while landing Burnes in free agency “doesn’t seem especially likely,” the club pursuing an impact starter can’t be ruled out with left-hander Sean Manaea’s name floated as one possible option. It’s unclear if the club is interested in Manaea specifically, but a pitcher of that caliber could solidify the club’s rotation alongside Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt while pushing Rodriguez to the bullpen after he posted a lackluster 90 ERA+ in 21 starts last year. Attractive as that may seem to Blue Jays fans, Nicholson-Smith cautions that it’s unclear whether the Jays would have the stomach to make an impact addition both to the rotation and the lineup this winter.

RosterResource puts the club’s luxury tax number at just over $228MM, meaning they have around $12MM remaining in the budget before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. Even on impact addition seems certain to carry them past that mark, but a second one would run the risk of pushing them into the uncharted territory of surpassing the second threshold, which sits at $261MM in 2025. Given that, Nicholson-Smith suggests the club may have to choose between targeting an impact slugger and an impact starter before making a lower-level addition to address the other need. Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez are among the veteran sluggers who may be available for relatively cheap in free agency, while back-end starting options who wouldn’t break the bank include players like Michael Lorenzen and Colin Rea.

Dodgers Sign David Bote To Minors Contract

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The Dodgers signed infielder David Bote to a minor league deal, according to Aram Leighton of Just Baseball Media.  As per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, the deal includes an invite to the Dodgers’ big league Spring Training camp.

Bote became a free agent when the Cubs bought out (for $1MM) the $7MM club option on his services for the 2025 season.  The Cubs signed Bote to that five-year, $15MM extension in April 2019, after a debut season in the majors that saw Bote hit .239/.319/.408 over 210 plate appearances while seeing at least some action at five different positions.  While Bote wasn’t a notable prospect during his time in the Cubs farm system, Chicago felt it was a decent investment to lock up a player that seemed like at least a decent utility infield fit.

Bote himself initiated the talks about the extension, a decision that proved to be quite wise for his financial security considering how his production tailed off after a big 2019 season.  After hitting .257/.362/.422 with 11 homers in 356 PA in 2019, Bote hit only .200/.285/.353 in 472 total PA in 2020-21.  He rebounded to hit decently well in 2022 but the Cubs still outrighted him off their 40-man roster at season’s end.

Since Bote didn’t have enough service time to reject the outright assignment while retaining the rest of his salary, he remained in the Chicago organization.  Bote didn’t see any big league time in 2023 but had his contract selected again to the Cubs’ roster this past season, as he appeared in 32 games.

Over his last 175 PA at the Major League level, Bote has hit a very respectable .272/.320/.420, translating to a 110 wRC+.  He has played mostly at second and third base with a handful of games at first base, shortstop, and both corner outfield slots, so he adds the kind of versatility that the Dodgers (and among many other teams) value in potential bench pieces.  Bote’s right-handed bat has had a tendency for reverse splits, though his overall numbers in the majors are relatively even against right-handed and left-handed pitching.

Los Angeles obviously already has a very crowded infield picture, especially now that Mookie Betts is being penciled in as the team’s starting shortstop in 2025.  If Bote makes the roster, he can provide depth behind Max Muncy and Gavin Lux at third and second, with Miguel Rojas as the backup shortstop behind Betts.  Should he not break camp with this loaded roster, Bote might consider opting out of his deal to pursue a clearer path to playing time elsewhere, or he could remain in the minors since the Dodgers don’t have much in the way of MLB-experienced depth on the farm.

Twins Interested In Re-Signing Carlos Santana, Adding Right-Handed Hitting Outfielder

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The Twins’ offseason checklist includes finding a right-handed hitting outfielder and a first baseman, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune).  In regards to the latter need, Nightengale writes that team still has interest in bringing Carlos Santana back for another stint in the Twin Cities.

Santana signed a one-year, $5.25MM free agent deal with Minnesota last winter, and at age 38 delivered one of the best all-around seasons of his 15-year career.  Santana hit .238/.320/.420 with 23 home runs in 594 plate appearances (translating to a 114 wRC+) and displayed outstanding defense at first base, earning him his very first Gold Glove.  While his hard-contact numbers remained below average for the second straight year, Santana still made a lot of contact and avoided strikeouts, while drawing his customary large share of walks.

Between these numbers and his off-the-field presence in Minnesota’s clubhouse, it is easy to see why the Twins would want him back.  Re-signing Santana for a relatively modest raise also seems feasible, as despite his production, teams are likely to zone in on Santana’s age as a reason to not commit too much money on another one-year deal.  There’s also the fact that 2024 was essentially a bounce-back for Santana after he posted a 94 wRC+ and 2.3 combined fWAR over his previous four seasons, so this last year might be viewed as an outlier.

Santana had 3.0 fWAR in 2024, a number topped by only six hitters in this winter’s free agent class.  Santana tied Christian Walker with a 3.0 fWAR and both were ahead of Pete Alonso’s 2.1 fWAR, to compare Santana to the two top first-base names.  Needless to say, Walker and Alonso will still command much larger contracts than Santana, and Santana’s market might not fully develop until the bigger free agents (and trade targets) have landed on their next teams.  The Twins’ pre-existing relationship with Santana could give them an in, but Santana has also drawn interest from the Mariners, another of his former clubs.

Turning to the Twins’ needs on the grass, Minnesota’s ideal right-handed bat would be a corner outfielder, able to complement left-handed hitters Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach.  Nightengale suggests that Austin Hays might be a fit, as hitting coach Matt Borgschulte is familiar with Hays from their shared time together with the Orioles.

Seeking out only a platoon bat will limit the price tag on a new acquisition, which again fits for a Minnesota team that doesn’t have much available in payroll space.  Technically, the Twins might first have to move some money, as their projected $142.1MM payroll (estimate from RosterResource) is over their $129.6MM payroll from last season, and Falvey has already said that Minnesota will be spending at a similar level in 2025.

Astros Now “Serious Suitor” For Nolan Arenado

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While the Astros have been intent on trying to re-sign Alex Bregman this offseason, the club landed a potential third base backup option in Isaac Paredes, and is now looking at an even bigger option at the hot corner.  The Athletic’s Chandler Rome reports that Houston has “emerged as a serious suitor for” Nolan Arenado’s services, though a trade isn’t “believed to be imminent.”

Since the Cardinals are looking to create more playing time for younger players and reduce payroll, the club has been open about its attempts to trade Arenado this offseason.  The third baseman has a full no-trade clause but is open to waiving it in the right situation, as agent Joel Wolfe stressed that Arenado is only willing to leave St. Louis for “a team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career.  He wants a team that has the throttle down….that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

The Astros would seemingly fit that description as longtime playoff regulars who are trying to keep their contention window, but it is unclear if Arenado would have interest in going to Houston.  The Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox are the six teams Arenado would reportedly be willing to play for, but it isn’t known if any clubs beyond this group would also meet his approval for a waiver of his no-trade privileges.

Beyond the no-trade clause, the Astros and Cardinals also have to work out the terms of the actual deal, and finances could present an obstacle.  Rome writes that “the Astros will ask the Cardinals to help pay down” the $74MM owed to Arenado over the final three years of his contract.  (Only $64MM is technically the Cards’ responsibility, as the Rockies are covering $10MM of that figure as per the term of the 2021 trade that brought Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis.)  Whether or not the Cardinals are willing to cover any of Arenado’s salary is an open question, and if so, it’ll be a matter of whether they can match figures with the Astros or any other suitor, or if St. Louis is willing to take on an unwanted contract as salary offset.

Some additional baggage might stand in a way of an Astros/Cardinals trade in particular.  Former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa was found guilty in federal court over charges of illegally accessing the Astros’ proprietary baseball operations database in 2013 and 2014, and MLB punished the Cardinals by forcing them to give $2MM and their top picks in the 2017 draft to the Astros as punishment.  Though Houston’s front office has since been overhauled and Chaim Bloom is set to replace John Mozeliak next year as the Cards’ next president of baseball operations, the two teams haven’t completed a trade with each other since 2012, hinting at some lingering bad blood.

Astros GM Dana Brown said yesterday that the team’s decision to trade Kyle Tucker (and get Paredes back in the trade package from the Cubs) didn’t indicate that anything changed in Houston’s pursuit of a reunion with Bregman.  KPRC’s Ari Alexander also hears from a source that the Astros remain among “the strong four” top contenders for Bregman along with the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees, with the Tigers and Blue Jays also linked to Bregman’s market.

Technically, a scenario exists where Houston could re-sign Bregman, install Arenado at first base, and then have Paredes at DH whenever Yordan Alvarez is in left field.  But, more realistically, trading for Arenado would surely close the door on the chances of a reunion between Bregman and the Astros.  Reports have indicated that Houston has offered Bregman a six-year, $156MM contract, but if he and his camp have indicated that a larger outlay is necessary, that might explain why the Astros now have given more attention to Arenado since the end of the Winter Meetings.  With at least the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox in on both third basemen, it make sense that the Astros would also explore both options out of due diligence.

Rangers Sign Tucker Barnhart To Minors Contract

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The Rangers have signed catcher Tucker Barnhart to a minor league contract, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports.  The deal includes an invitation to the Rangers’ big league Spring Training camp, and Barnhart will earn $1MM if he makes the Texas roster.

Barnhart is the second veteran catcher the Rangers have acquired in the last two weeks, after inking Kyle Higashioka to a two-year, $13.5MM deal.  Jonah Heim is still the starting backstop in Arlington, but Heim’s struggles in 2024 left the Rangers looking for more depth, so Higashioka is expected to get more playing time than a normal backup.  With these two locked into catching duties on the MLB roster, Barnhart and Sam Huff could be Triple-A depth unless an injury emerges.

A two-time Gold Glover from his days as the Reds’ starting catcher, Barnhart’s glovework helped paper over some only serviceable numbers at the plate.  However, Barnhart’s once-modest offensive production has continued to sharply decline, while his glovework dropped to below-average in the view of Defensive Runs Saved (-2) and Statcast’s Catcher Runs metric (-3).

It should be noted that these numbers came in a limited sample size, as Barnhart appeared in only 31 big league games with the Diamondbacks last season.  Even when starter Gabriel Moreno was injured, the D’Backs preferred Jose Herrera for a lot of playing time, and Barnhart was the one designated for assignment and ultimately released after Moreno returned from the injured list.  Barnhart landed with his old team in Cincinnati on a minors deal in August, but his return to the Reds didn’t result in any MLB playing time.

Barnhart has a .241/.318/.351 slash line in 3088 plate appearances across 11 seasons with the Reds, Tigers, Cubs, and Diamondbacks.  Presumably his contract includes the standard veteran opt-out clauses, so Barnhart could end up back on the open market again if he doesn’t see a clear path to playing time on the Rangers’ roster prior to Opening Day.

Justin, Mat Ishbia Interested In Buying Twins Franchise

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It has been over two months since the Pohlad family announced they were looking into selling the Twins, and a prominent potential buyer has now been identified.  According to Bloomberg’s Isis Almeida, Miranda Davis, and Randall Williams, a group led by billionaire Justin Ishbia has expressed interest in purchasing the franchise, and Ishbia has been “meeting with local community leaders across the state to learn more about the community and the opportunity to carry on the Twins legacy.”

The Athletic’s Sam Amick, Dan Hayes, and Dennis Lin have more details, specifying that both Justin and Mat Ishbia would be involved in the ownership group, with Justin acting as the lead investor.  The brothers already own the NBA’s Phoenix Suns and WNBA’s Phoenix Mercury, with Mat acting as governor for those franchises and Justin the alternate governor.  Presumably in the same manner that Mat Ishbia is considered the chief “owner” of the Suns and Mercury, Justin Ishbia would take a similar head role in overseeing the Twins, with his brother in a secondary capacity.  Justin Ishbia’s sports interests also include a minority ownership stake in Major League Soccer’s Nashville SC franchise.

There is no sense that the Ishbia or any other potential bidders are close to completing a purchase, as Amick/Hayes/Lin write that the sale process will take a minimum of six months.  Minnesota president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters at the Winter Meetings that the franchise in the initial information-gathering phase of the process, and that the Twins had yet to move onto identifying or vetting potential buyers.

Carl Pohlad bought the Twins in 1984, with the role of day-to-day ownership oversight going to Carl’s son Jim Pohlad in 2009, and then to Jim’s nephew Joe Pohlad in November 2022.  The Pohlad family’s tenure has seen the Twins capture two World Series titles (1987 and 1991) and 11 division titles, but those high points have also been somewhat obscured by consistently limited spending over most of the four decades the Pohlads have been in charge.  The Twins were under consideration to be contracted by MLB in 2001, and the opening of Target Field in 2010 only temporarily boosted the club’s payroll.

Most recently, the team’s decision to slash payroll in the wake of a successful 2023 season (and the abrupt end of the Twins’ broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group) left Minnesota fans upset, and those feelings only hardened when a late-season collapse cost the Twins a playoff berth.  MLB itself will be running Twins broadcasts in 2025, though with lower fees than the Diamond deal, and thus less revenue coming back to the organization.

It is far too early to speculate on whether or not the Ishbias or any owner would suddenly push a lot more money into roster construction.  The payroll structures of pro baseball and basketball are vastly different, of course, but for some reference, Amick/Hayes/Lee note that Mat Ishbia was almost instantly aggressive after buying the Suns.  Within just a few days after that sale was official in February 2023, Ishbia pushed his front office to swing a blockbuster trade for superstar Kevin Durant.

Cubs Interested In Luis Castillo

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The Cubs are one of the teams who have spoken to the Mariners about Luis Castillo’s trade availability, according to Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times.  The depth of Chicago’s interest isn’t known, or if this interest still exists now that the Cubs have already swung a blockbuster deal to land Kyle Tucker from the Astros.  Castillo also has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he could veto things entirely if he doesn’t have interest in going to Chicago.

Since the Cubs were known to be looking for pitching, however, it would make sense that they would at least check in on what seems to be an increasingly available trade candidate. Rumors have been swirling about Castillo’s availability in recent days, as while Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has publicly downplayed the idea of trading from Seattle’s rotation depth, it is thought that Castillo might be the most available of the starting five.  The 32-year-old Castillo is at least five years older than any of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, or Bryce Miller, and much more expensive — Castillo is owed $68.25MM in guaranteed money from 2025-27, plus a $25MM vesting option for 2028 that becomes guaranteed based on health and an innings threshold.

This salary might be the chief reason the M’s would be open to trading Castillo, as the club is known to be operating within pretty limited payroll parameters.  Divish and Jude note that the Mariners are thought to have around $15MM in spending space, and for a team with several needs to address on offense, their options for signings or other trades widen greatly if Castillo’s contract was off the books.  Freeing up some money might allow the M’s to make a more full-on pursuit of Christian Walker, who the Mariners have had “atop their wish list since the start of the offseason,” Divish and Jude write.

A deal that saw Castillo go to Wrigleyville could also logically bring at least one bat back in Seattle’s direction.  The M’s have already been linked to Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, so a swap involving the two of them (if not necessarily a one-for-one) would address both teams’ needs.  Hoerner is owed $23.5MM over the next seasons, so that represents some salary offset if Chicago absorbed all of Castillo’s contract.

On the other hand, sending Isaac Paredes to Houston in the Tucker trade package has already cost the Cubs one starting infielder, so Chicago might now be less willing to move Hoerner.  Top prospect Matt Shaw is viewed as the likeliest candidate to step in at third base in Paredes’ place, and while James Triantos is another highly-touted youngster who might be ready for the big leagues at second base, entrusting two infield jobs to rookies is a risk for the Cubs.

Getting Castillo for Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki would be a cleaner fit for Chicago in dealing from its outfield depth, but the Mariners already have Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles slated for starting jobs.  The M’s have Luke Raley set for at least part-time duty at first base and Mitch Haniger penciled in at DH, as well.  This all being said, the Mariners have such a broad need for hitting that it certainly isn’t beyond Dipoto to target a big outfield bat and then get creative in either fitting that bat into the lineup, or perhaps trying to deal Raley or Haniger to land the infield help Seattle more clearly needs.

Installing Castillo alongside Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and the newly-signed Matthew Boyd would suddenly give the Cubs one of the more appealing rotations in baseball.  Plenty more pitching would be on hand as well, since acquiring Castillo would turn fifth-starter candidates Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, or top prospect Cade Horton into depth arms.  Speculatively speaking, one of these younger depth arms could also be sent to Seattle in a hypothetical Castillo trade, to give the Mariners a ready-made replacement for the new vacancy in their rotation.

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker

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The Cubs and Astros announced that they have made a trade that will send outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago, with infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith heading to Houston.

It’s a move that would have been completely shocking as recently as a few weeks ago. Tucker has been a key part of the Astros dynasty and one of the best players in baseball in recent seasons. But over the past few weeks, reports emerged that the Astros were willing to listen to offers on Tucker as they looked to balance their desire to compete with some financial concerns. It appears that talks ramped up quickly and Houston found an offer they considered too good to pass up.

Tucker, 28 in January, was one of many high profile draft picks that went on to be part of the championship nucleus in Houston. The club aggressively tanked last decade, using high draft picks to select players like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and others. After failing to sign Brady Aiken, their top pick in 2014, they received a compensation pick in the 2015 draft. That gave them two of the top five picks in 2015, using the second overall pick to draft Alex Bregman and the fifth overall selection on Tucker.

Both picks were big successes, as Bregman and Tucker each established themselves as All-Star capable big leaguers. This deal now officially ends Tucker’s tenure in Houston and might poetically point to the end of Bregman’s as well. Houston decision makers have long pointed to re-signing Bregman, who is currently a free agent, as a top offseason priority. However, the two sides have reportedly remained far apart in negotiations and the pivot to Paredes might signal that Bregman won’t be coming back to Houston after all.

Tucker, 28 in January, hit 89 home runs over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He hit exactly 30 in the first two of those campaigns and then 29 in the third. He also stole 69 bases in that time, had above average walk and strikeout rates and strong defense. His combined line in that time was .278/.353/.517, which led to a 138 wRC+, indicating he was 38% better than league average. In 2024, he missed about three months due to a shin fracture but his limited performance was even stronger. He hit 23 home runs in just 78 games and his .289/.408/.585 line led to a 180 wRC+.

Putting all of those traits together, Tucker was worth about five wins above replacement in each of the 2021-2023 seasons, per FanGraphs. In 2024, he racked up 4.2 fWAR even though he missed roughly half the year. His 19.1 fWAR over the 2021-2024 stretch puts him 13th among MLB position players, though he played fewer games than everyone ahead of him, thanks to that injury absence.

Unlike some other clubs, the Astros have shown a willingness to let their star players go get paid elsewhere. They did that with Correa, Springer and Gerrit Cole, who went on to sign with the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively. That has aligned with a general reluctance to give out massive deals or pay the competitive balance tax. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Jose Altuve’s 2018 extension worth $157.5MM over six years is the biggest deal in franchise history, both in terms of years and dollars. The Astros went over the CBT line in 2020 but didn’t pay any taxes as the system was put on hold in the shortened season. 2024 was the first time they went over the line and actually had to pay the tax.

Coming into this winter, general manager Dana Brown suggested the club needed needed to “get a little bit creative” with the budget. Owner Jim Crane later pushed back on that stance a bit, but it appears the financial constraints are real. Reporting has indicated that the Astros made an offer to Bregman of $156MM but that he is looking for something closer to $200MM.

Tucker’s earning power next winter is likely to be even higher than Bregman’s is now. Bregman is going into his age-31 season now whereas Tucker will be going into his age-29 campaign next winter.

It’s possible the Astros decided they weren’t likely to get a long-term deal done with either player and explored trade talks with Tucker, with this offer ticking a lot of boxes for them. It clears Tucker’s salary, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for $15.8MM, off the 2025 books. Redirecting those savings to Bregman is still possible but they’ve also found themselves a potential replacement in Paredes.

Over the past three years, Paredes has hit 70 home runs and slashed .234/.338/.437 for a 123 wRC+. He’s also bounced around the infield, though has been at third base more than anywhere else. His defense at the hot corner has been close to average but it’s still made him roughly a 3-4 fWAR player recently. He is projected to make $6.9MM via arbitration next year and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond that.

Going to Houston might be an especially good fit for him, given that most of his home run power comes via pulling the ball towards the field foul pole. As pointed out by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, his home run total of 19 in 2024 would have been 26 if he played all his games in Houston and could take advantage of the Crawford Boxes.

It’s still possible that Houston could re-sign Bregman and move Paredes over to first base, since the club is also looking for help there, but time will tell how viable that is. Houston could find cheaper solutions at first base and leave Paredes at third for the next few seasons.

The acquisition of Smith also provides the Astros with a potential third baseman for the future. He was just drafted by the Cubs with the 14th overall pick a few months ago and slashed .313/.396/.609 in his professional debut, getting into 32 games across three different levels, finishing at Double-A. If the Astros stick with Paredes at third, Smith could push him for the job in the coming years, with Paredes eventually getting moved across the diamond.

The Astros also add a bit of pitching depth in the deal via Wesneski. The 27-year-old has decent underlying rates thus far in his career but problems with the long ball have pushed lots of runs across the plate. In 190 innings thus far in his career, he has a 23% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. But 35 home runs, a rate of 16.7% per fly ball, have led to a 3.93 ERA. If the Astros can help him keep the ball in the park, he can be a part of their pitching staff for years to come. He has less than two years of service time and can therefore be retained for another five seasons.

The club has plenty of question marks with its pitching right now. Each of McCullers, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and J.P. France missed all or part of 2024 due to notable arm surgeries, so each of those guys is a question mark heading into 2025. Framber Valdez is also a trade candidate in the same vein as Tucker, since he’s set to make an eight-figure salary and is one year away from free agency. Hunter Brown had an uneven season this year. Ronel Blanco was huge for Houston but is fairly limited in terms of starting experience. Spencer Arrighetti was decent in his rookie year but it’s hard to bank on him at this point.

In the bullpen, Ryan Pressly is another trade candidate. He’s set to make $14MM next year, the final season of his deal. Wesneski has worked both as a starter and as a reliever in his career, so he can help Houston in either department.

For the Cubs, it’s a lot to give up, and that’s especially true when looking back to their acquisition of Paredes. They just sent Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson to the Rays a few months ago, getting Paredes ahead of the summer deadline. In a sense, they have given up those three players plus Smith and Wesneski in order to get just one season of Tucker.

But there are good reasons why they have paid such a price. The club has been hovering around .500 in recent years, having a squad full of good players but lacking in truly elite ones. They also possess a very strong pipeline of prospects, several of whom are pushing for major league playing time. They have shown a reluctance to pay top dollar for free agents, so a big trade has seemed like the best way for them to upgrade the roster.

Tucker certainly qualifies. As mentioned, he has been one of the best position players in the majors recently and immediately becomes the best player for the Cubbies. Perhaps the Cubs will look to work out an extension with Tucker but that would require a very notable contract, the kind they haven’t given out recently. Even if Tucker is only at Wrigley for one year, the Cubs will at least be able to recoup draft pick compensation by issuing him the qualifying offer after 2025.

In addition to that, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is in the final year of his contract. With the Cardinals taking their foot of the gas pedal next year and the Reds and Pirates still struggling to come out of rebuilds, there’s a window for the Cubs to take a step forward, push the Brewers for the division and get Hoyer some extra job security.

It’s also possible that they won’t miss any of the pieces they gave up too much, even though they make a lot of sense for Houston. As mentioned, the Cubs have an excellent farm system. On Baseball America’s Top 100, they currently have six players on the list, which doesn’t even include Smith. Though it surely hurts to give up their most recent first round pick, the farm is still in good shape overall.

That farm might also be able to provide an immediate Paredes replacement. One of the club’s top prospects is Matt Shaw, who has played a bit of middle infield but a bit more at third.  He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .284/.379/.488 for a 146 wRC+. If the Cubs feel Shaw is ready to make the jump to the majors, that may have made Paredes expendable. Wesneski is also a talented pitcher but he’s been squeezed from the rotation plans in Chicago and largely kept in a swing role.

It’s a huge move for both clubs and will surely lead to more, especially for the Cubs. They already had a crowded outfield mix even before adding Tucker into it. They also have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, not to mention prospects Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. They have reportedly been trying to work out a deal involving Bellinger or, to a lesser extent, Suzuki. Happ and Suzuki both have no-trade clauses, making them difficult to move. Bellinger has an opt-out after 2025, which also makes him a tricky trade candidate.

One way or another, a move from that group feels inevitable. The Yankees have been connected to both Tucker and Bellinger, so perhaps they will now focus more on the latter now that they didn’t get Tucker.

For the Astros, what’s still unknown is if the door is totally closed to Bregman. It certainly feels like that may be the case, though it’s not impossible to see a path back to Houston. RosterResource estimates their competitive balance tax number at $225MM, which is $16MM shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Signing Bregman would certainly push them over, though not by as much now that Tucker’s gone. They could also theoretically lower their number by trading Valdez or Pressly. Then again, they’ve been talking about signing a new deal with Bregman for two years without it happening, so perhaps this is the door finally closing.

It’s also unknown if Houston is content with its Tucker-less outfield. Yordan Alvarez is a strong hitter but often relegated to DH duties due to ongoing knee issues. Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and Taylor Trammell are other options on the roster, along with utility types like Mauricio Dubón and Shay Whitcomb. The group obviously looks weaker without Tucker in it, so perhaps the Astros will look to bolster the group in the coming weeks and months.

Time will tell how the move plays out in the full offseason for both clubs. But for today, the Cubs have added a huge talent to the roster without giving up anything truly heartbreaking. The Astros have lost that huge talent but could have made up a decent amount of his value in the short term while clearly helping themselves in the long term.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported this morning that the Cubs and Astros were “circling” on a deal involving Tucker, Paredes and Smith. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first mentioned Wesneski’s inclusion. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the deal was done.

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