This week's mailbag covers Kyle Schwarber's impending free agency, what the Braves should do in the offseason, whether Trevor Story could opt out, why MLB killed August waiver trades, how Josh Naylor will fare in free agency, the potentially weak 2026-27 free agent class, the chances the Dodgers sign Kyle Tucker, the Rockies' young bats, and more.
Fred asks:
I can't believe that John Middleton will let Kyle Schwarber play anywhere else but Philly next year, especially with the overall drop in the Phillies' non-Schwarber power output this year. Does a 4/125 extension keep him away from free agency?
Schwarber turns 33 in March. He's mashing this year like never before. Schwarber has already reached his first 4 WAR season, should fly past 5 WAR, and won't be far off 6 WAR. His previous career-high was 3.3 last year. The bar is very high for offense when you have no defensive value.
Regarding the term, only two DHs age 33 and up have achieved four years in free agency: Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez within a month of each other in December 2014. They were actually age 34 and 36, respectively, so I guess that's a (weak) case to actually go to five years on Schwarber.
To Fred's question, yes - four years at $31.25MM per year should definitely keep Schwarber away from free agency. The Phillies have a $185MM CBT payroll for next year at the moment, given Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, Jordan Romano, and others coming off the books. There would be room to give Schwarber a contract with a $30MM AAV, and it was Dave Dombrowski who did that ill-fated V-Mart deal with the Tigers. But would this type of contract with Schwarber be a good idea?

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