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Rockies, Matt Koch Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Rockies have agreed to a minor league deal with right-hander Matt Koch and invited him to spring training, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Koch spent the 2023 season with the Rox but was outrighted in October and elected free agency. He’ll now head back for a second season on a non-guaranteed deal.

The 33-year-old Koch pitched 38 2/3 innings for Colorado this past season, yielding a 5.12 ERA with a 16.6% strikeout rate against a tidy 5.5% walk rate. Koch doesn’t throw especially hard, averaging 93.8 mph on his four-seamer and 89.6 mph on his cutter, but he induced grounders at an above-average 49% clip. When opponents did manage to elevate the ball against him, however, the contact was often loud. Koch surrendered an average of 1.63 homers per nine frames, and opponents notched a 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 44.8% hard-hit rate against him.

Koch has appeared in parts of six big league seasons between the D-backs, Mariners and Rockies. In that time, he’s worked to a 5.03 ERA in 168 1/3 innings with 13.9% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 43.1% ground-ball rate. He’ll vie for a job in a Rockies bullpen that has little in the way of certainty beyond presumptive ninth-inning favorite Justin Lawrence. Righty Tyler Kinley struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery, while 2022 All-Star Daniel Bard walked 49 batters in 49 1/3 innings. The Rox traded Pierce Johnson to the Braves at the deadline and saw Brent Suter become a free agent at season’s end. They’ll likely be in the market for some additional veteran stability as the winter wears on, but several more depth pickups like this one with Koch also feel plausible.

Nationals, Juan Yepez Agree To Minor League Deal

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First baseman Juan Yepez has agreed to a minor league deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

Yepez, 26 in February, was recently non-tendered by the Cardinals after a disappointing 2023 season, but posted strong results in the two prior campaigns. In 2021, Yepez split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting 27 home runs in 111 games. He also walked in 11.8% of his plate appearances, leading to a combined batting line of .286/.383/.586 and a wRC+ of 154.

In 2022, he was moved between Triple-A and the majors, performing well at both levels. He hit 16 homers in 50 Triple-A games and slashed .277/.341/.580 for a wRC+ of 137. In the big leagues, he hit 12 home runs in 76 games, producing a line of .253/.296/.447 and wRC+ of 107. He also hit a pinch-hit two-run home run in the first game of the Wild Card series against the Phillies, though the Cards ended up losing both that game and the series.

In 2023, he hit just .183/.246/.300 in 28 major league games and spent most of the season on optional assignment. But he didn’t thrive in Triple-A either, hitting .255/.323/.413 in his 86 games at that level for a wRC+ of 82.

Even if Yepez had been performing well, it would have been tough for the Cards to find a spot for him. He has played some third base in the past but not in 2023, primarily lining up at first base and the outfield corners. Since St. Louis has Paul Goldschmidt at first and a surplus of outfield options, he had a tough hill to climb in finding playing time there.

The Nationals, however, should be a much better fit for him. Dominic Smith was the primary first baseman for that club in 2023 but he was also non-tendered and is currently a free agent. Joey Meneses could be in line for a regular role there but he can also play the outfield and the Nats don’t have anyone strictly locked into the designated hitter slot. Even in the outfield, Victor Robles is heading into his final arbitration season before reaching free agency while Lane Thomas is just two years from the open market, though prospects like James Wood and Dylan Crews should be factors in the near future.

If Yepez can hit his way back to a roster spot, he still as one option year remaining and barely a year of service time. That means the Nats could retain him for multiple seasons if he ends up clicking with them.

Eduardo Rodriguez Narrows Decision To Two Teams

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Free agent left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez has been at the Winter Meetings in Nashville this week, where he’s held sitdowns with multiple interested clubs. It seems that slate of meetings will soon produce a deal, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Rodriguez has narrowed his possibilities to two teams and will decide between that pair of offers by tomorrow.

Beyond the fact that he’s known to have been in Nashville to meet with clubs, it’s been a relatively quiet offseason on the Rodriguez front. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported last month that any geographic preferences that may have been in place at the trade deadline are now out the window, as the left-hander has expressed an openness to pitching anywhere.

Logically speaking, teams that are deep into pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and/or Yoshinobu Yamamoto might not want to make a commitment of this size before either of those names comes off the board. That’s largely speculative, to be clear, although SNY’s Andy Martino reported this morning that the Mets haven’t even shown interest in Rodriguez at or prior to the Winter Meetings — largely for that specific reason; they’ve been focused squarely on Yamamoto to this point. That certainly seems to take them out of play as one of the two apparent finalists.

Rodriguez, 31 in April, opted out of the final three years and $49MM on his contract with the Tigers at the beginning of the offseason. There’s been no indication that a return is off the table, even after Detroit’s signing of veteran righty Kenta Maeda to a two-year contract. Tigers president of baseball ops Scott Harris was clear after that agreement that the Tigers remain in the market for starting pitching. Whether that includes putting forth a lengthier and larger commitment than the one from which Rodriguez just opted out isn’t clear, although it bears mentioning that Rodriguez was signed by Harris’ predecessor, Al Avila, and not the current Detroit front office regime.

The 2023 season was the second of a five-year, $77MM deal that had mixed results. Rodriguez was away from the Tigers for an extended period during year one of the contract, citing a marital issue, and posted a 4.05 ERA with diminished strikeout numbers when on the field. He bounced back early in 2023 and was one of the American League’s best pitchers for much of the first half. From April 12 through May 28, Rodriguez rattled off nine starts (57 1/3 innings) with a 1.40 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate.

A ruptured pulley tendon in his pitching hand sent Rodriguez to the injured list from late May through early July, and he wasn’t as sharp upon his return. The lefty improved as the summer wore on, but his 4.24 ERA in 85 innings post-injury list was decidedly less intriguing than his pre-injury output.

Overall, Rodriguez still finished out the season with 152 2/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball, adding in a 23% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, 41% ground-ball rate and 0.88 HR/9. MLBTR ranked Rodriguez 11th on our annual Top 50 free agent rankings and predicted a four-year, $82MM deal for the veteran southpaw.

Mets Sign Michael Tonkin

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December 6: Tonkin will earn $1MM, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post.  Feinsand adds that Tonkin’s deal is actually a split contract, so the $1MM salary will be prorated over the time Tonkin spends on the big league roster. Tim Britton of The Athletic relays that Tonkin will make $400K in the minors. The Mets also officially announced the deal today.

December 5: The Mets have signed right-hander Michael Tonkin to a Major League contract, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via X).

After posting a 4.43 ERA over 146 1/3 innings with the Twins from 2013-17, Tonkin didn’t play in the majors until resurfacing with the Braves last season.  The five-year odyssey saw Tonkin pitch in Japan, the Mexican Leagues, the independent Long Island Ducks, and within the affiliated minors with the Braves, Diamondbacks, and Brewers.  That stint with Milwaukee’s Triple-A affiliate occurred in 2019 when David Stearns was still running the Brewers’ front office, so today’s deal reunites Tonkin with the Mets’ new president of baseball operations.

Tonkin’s return to the big leagues was a success, as he posted a 4.28 ERA over 45 appearances and 80 innings last year.  Atlanta often used Tonkin in a multi-inning capacity, giving him a valuable role on a team that often had to figure out how to patch together innings in the wake of multiple rotation injuries.  A .241 BABIP did provide some help to Tonkin’s efforts, though his 3.87 SIERA was actually lower than his ERA, and his 7.1% walk rate was well above the league average.

Since Tonkin’s peripherals were otherwise pretty lackluster, that could explain why Atlanta opted to non-tender him, despite a modest $1MM arbitration projection.  The Braves were aggressive in moving a lot of arbitration-eligible players who were either obvious non-tenders or only borderline roster candidates for 2024, yet Tonkin didn’t linger in free agency long before catching on with another NL East team.

It would seem like Tonkin’s role in New York will resemble his assignment last year, as he’ll be called on to eat innings for a Mets club that currently has a lot of question marks on the pitching staff.  The Mets signed Luis Severino and have been rumored to be pursuing some big-name talent on the free agent market, yet for now there isn’t much certainty in the rotation beyond Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana.  The return of Edwin Diaz will fill the biggest hole in the Amazins’ bullpen, yet Tonkin will add a necessary long relief option to the mix.  Tonkin joins Austin Adams (who signed a split contact) and minor league signings Cole Sulser, Andre Scrubb, and Kyle Crick as relief signings for the Mets over the last few weeks.

2023 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2023 Rule 5 draft will begin at 1pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2023 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2024 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs, such as Ryan Noda going from the Dodgers to the Athletics and Blake Sabol going from the Pirates to the Giants.

This post will be updated as the draft continues. Here is the order…

1.  Athletics: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
2. Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
3. Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays)
4. White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
5. Nationals: SS Nasim Nuñez (Marlins)
6. Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox)
7. Angels: pass
8. Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers); Mets later traded Slaten to the Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons* and cash considerations.
9. Pirates: pass
10. Guardians: 3B Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks)
11. Tigers: pass
12. Red Sox: pass
13. Giants: pass
14. Reds: pass
15. Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
16. Yankees: pass
17. Cubs: pass
18. Marlins: pass
19. Diamondbacks: pass
20. Twins: pass
21. Mariners: pass
22. Blue Jays: pass
23. Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)
24. Phillies: pass
25. Astros: pass
26. Brewers: pass
27. Rays: pass
28. Dodgers: pass
29. Orioles: pass
30. Braves: pass

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include 1B Seth Beer going from the Diamondbacks to the Pirates while the Yankees took RHP Kervin Castro from the Astros.

* (Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Ammons was going to the Mets. Joel Sherman of The New York Post added that Ammons and cash were being exchanged for Slaten.

Mets Owner Steve Cohen Recently Met With Yoshinobu Yamamoto In Japan

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It was recently reported that Yoshinobu Yamamoto would soon be flying to the United States to meet with interested clubs and Jon Morosi of MLB.com relays today that the Yankees are expected to meet with him on Monday. It seems like Mets owner Steve Cohen wanted to get a headstart on the proceedings, as Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that he flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto last week.

The Mets have long been connected to Yamamoto, even though they are supposedly taking something of a step back in 2024. Under normal circumstances, a top free agent fits best with a win-now club. Since most players reach free agency close to their 30th birthday, a long-term deal will likely see them at their best in the early parts of the contract. But Yamamoto is a special case, since he is only 25. Even if the Mets feel they will have a better shot at competing in 2025 and beyond compared to 2024, Yamamoto will still be able to hopefully offer them many prime years. Their excitement around Yamamoto is apparently strong enough that Cohen took the initiative of meeting with him in Japan.

The rotation in Queens has plenty of question marks and Yamamoto would be a logical target. They currently have Kodai Senga, José Quintana and Luis Severino in three spots, while the back end is less certain. Players like Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto are on the roster but each of them is arguably better utilized in a depth role than as part of the Opening Day rotation. David Peterson will miss the first half of the season due to hip surgery. Furthermore, Quintana and Severino are each slated for free agency after 2024, giving the club even less certainty in the long term.

Although signing Yamamoto might be a long play for the Mets, it would still come with significant short-term costs. The club currently has a competitive balance tax figure of $277MM, per Roster Resource, well beyond next year’s base threshold of $237MM and on the line of the third tier. Since they paid the tax in 2022 and 2023, they are set to be a third-time payor next year. There are escalating tax rates for paying in consecutive years, putting them in line for a 95% tax on spending beyond the third tier and then a 110% rate for spending beyond the fourth and final tier of $297MM.

Then there’s also the posting fee that will be due to the Orix Buffaloes, the Nippon Professional Baseball club that posted Yamamoto recently. MLBTR predicted Yamamoto for a contract of nine years and $225MM, which would also come with a posting fee of $35.625MM. Some recent speculation around Yamamoto’s popularity has suggested the bidding could push closer to $300MM, which would also push the posting fee up as well.

The Yankees have also been connected to Yamamoto for quite some time and they have a somewhat similar payroll situation to the Mets, as they are also set to be a third-time payor in 2024. Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $246MM and their CBT figure at $257MM. However, they are reportedly close to acquiring Juan Soto from the Padres today, which would quickly change those figures, depending on the final deal. Soto is projected for an arbitration salary of $33MM while Michael King, who is reported to be part of the package going the other way, has a projected salary of $2.6MM. It’s possible the final deal will change things but it’s possible the Yanks will add about $30MM to their books in the swap.

It appears that wouldn’t take them out of the running for Yamamoto, as Andy Martino of SNY reports the club is willing to surpass a $300MM payroll next year. That would be a bump from last year, with RR having their 2023 payroll finishing at $273MM and their CBT at $294MM.

But adding Yamamoto would give a boost to a rotation that got a Cy Young performance from Gerrit Cole but little else. The club will be hoping for bouncebacks from Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes after injury-marred campaigns while King appears to be headed to San Diego. Pitchers like Clarke Schmidt and Randy Vásquez are on the roster but an external addition or additions would be warranted.

The Yankees and Mets have been two of the clubs connected to Yamamoto most often but certainly not the only ones. Given his youth and talent, he is one of the most popular free agents this winter. The Phillies, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have also been rumored to have interest, with some unnamed clubs perhaps in the mix as well. The 25-year-old Yamamoto has a 1.82 ERA in his NPB career and is coming off a dominant 1.21 ERA in 2023. It’s unknown how many of those clubs he will meet with in the coming weeks but his posting window is open until January 4.

Astros Acquire Dylan Coleman From Royals

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12:19pm: The Royals announced that they’ve acquired minor league right-hander Carlos Mateo from the Astros in exchange for Coleman.

The 19-year-old Mateo (20 later this month) has pitched in parts of two seasons with Houston’s affiliate in the Dominican Summer League. He’s worked primarily out of the bullpen, pitching a total of 36 innings with a 3.25 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate during that time. Mateo was not ranked among Houston’s top prospects and figures to report to the low levels of Kansas City’s system for the 2024 campaign.

12:10pm: The Royals are trading right-hander Dylan Coleman to the Astros, per a report from Anne Rogers and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. As pointed out by Rogers, this opens a spot on Kansas City’s 40-man roster ahead of this afternoon’s Rule 5 draft. It’s unknown what they are receiving in return but it could be a cash deal.

Coleman, 27, has been on the Royals’ roster since September of 2021, serving as an optionable depth arm in that time. He has 92 2/3 innings of major league experience to this point with an earned run average of 3.88. His 24.1% strikeout rate in that time is above average but he has also walked 13.9% of batters faced. Control was a particular problem in 2023, as he gave free passes to 19.8% of  hitters in the majors and 21.8% in Triple-A.

Despite the command issues, there are reasons for the Astros to be intrigued. For one thing, Coleman still has a couple of options, meaning he won’t require an active roster spot in the short term if the control remains an issue. He also has just over a year of service time, meaning he can be a long-term piece for the club if he gets things on track. His fastball averages in the upper 90s and he has always racked up plenty of strikeouts in the minors.

Coleman will be a project for his new club whereas it would appear the Royals feel they could make better use of that roster spot in the Rule 5 draft, which begins at 1pm Central. The Royals have the second pick, with the Athletics going first.

Rockies To Release Connor Seabold

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The Rockies are releasing right-hander Connor Seabold, per Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. In doing so, they’ll open a spot on their 40-man roster to make a selection in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.

Seabold, 27, was a third-round pick of the Phillies back in 2017 and has twice been traded — first to the Red Sox as part of the deal bringing Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree to Philadelphia, and second to the Rockies last winter in exchange for cash.

Earlier in his professional tenure, Seabold ranked among the top pitching prospects in both the Phillies and Red Sox systems, but elbow and forearm injuries shortened his 2021 and 2022 seasons. Seabold came to the Rockies with a solid track record in the upper minors, but his lone season with the Rox proved nightmarish both in Colorado and with their Triple-A affiliate in Albuquerque.

Seabold started 13 games and made another 14 relief appearances with Colorado this past season but was tagged for a gruesome 7.52 ERA in the process. He posted a sharp 6.9% walk rate but struggled with a well below-average 16.4% strikeout rate and a sky-high 1.96 HR/9. Seabold’s status as a pronounced fly-ball pitcher did him no favors at Coors Field, and he allowed hard contact a fair bit more often than the average big league pitcher (40.5%). Things didn’t go any better in Triple-A, where Seabold posted a 7.47 ERA in 31 2/3 frames.

As recently as 2022, Seabold tossed 86 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball with Triple-A Worcester in the Sox’ system, striking out 24.7% of his opponents against an excellent 5.3% walk rate. However, he’s also out of minor league options, so the Rox would’ve needed to carry Seabold on the Opening Day roster or else trade him, expose him to waivers or (as they’ll apparently do today) release him. Once he formally becomes a free agent, Seabold will be able to explore minor league deals with other organizations and perhaps gauge interest from teams in Japan and South Korea.

Report: Ohtani Decision “Expected” By Sunday

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As the ongoing free agency of Shohei Ohtani continues to hold up the remainder of the free agent and trade markets, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the two-time American League MVP is expected to make a decision on his free-agent destination before the end of the weekend.

Ohtani’s free agency has, by design, been shrouded in secrecy. He and agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports have worked to keep rumors of his potential destination under wraps, and many clubs have reportedly been wary of leaking information or commenting on Ohtani’s free agency in any capacity, for fear that it may hurt their chances of signing him.

Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts bucked that trend yesterday by announcing that his team recently hosted Ohtani for a meeting at Dodger Stadium and stating the obvious: that Ohtani is the Dodgers’ top priority. There’s been plenty of hand-wringing among Dodger faithful that Roberts’ comments harmed the team’s chances, though Morosi said in an appearance on MLB Network this morning that he does not see “in any way” that Roberts’ acknowledgment of what everyone already knew would serve as a deterrent to getting a deal done. It’d indeed be rather surprising if Ohtani’s decision on where he’ll play the next 10 to 13 seasons at a likely price tag north of $500MM were substantially impacted by a team’s manager simply acknowledging interest that has been anticipated for more than a year.

As it stands, the Dodgers are definitively known to have met with Ohtani. Reports this week indicated that the Blue Jays and Giants were also likely to have held sitdowns with the two-way star — the Jays at their spring complex in Dunedin, Fla. and the Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco. The incumbent Angels are also believed to be in the mix still. Last night, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer vehemently refuted reports that his own club’s optimism of landing Ohtani had “significantly waned.” It’s not known when or whether the Cubs hosted a meeting of their own with Ohtani, but Hoyer’s comments keep the door open for them as well.

Whether there are any darkhorse clubs who’ve managed to keep their involvement entirely off the radar is unclear, though that possibility can’t be discounted, given the nature of Ohtani’s free agency and the sheer demand an unprecedented talent like this has created. The Red Sox, Mets and Rangers were all involved early on in the process, but they’ve since appeared to shift their attention elsewhere after falling behind in the bidding.

If Ohtani indeed makes his decision in the next 96 hours or so (give or take), that would in all likelihood set the stage for the proverbial offseason floodgates to open. None of the reported finalists has been willing to make a significant move until learning whether they’ll be the team to ultimately reel in Ohtani. As such, that’s directly impacted the market for names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto (presumably a target of all finalists in the Ohtani bidding), top free agent bats like Cody Bellinger (a potential Giants, Jays or Angels target if Ohtani goes elsewhere) and even trade candidates like Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber, whose teams surely want to gauge interest from the runners-up in the Ohtani bidding.

Royals, Dan Altavilla Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Royals and right-hander Dan Altavilla are in agreement on a minor league deal with an invite to major league Spring Training, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty is a client of the MAS Agency.

Altavilla, 31, is coming off three mostly lost seasons due to June 2021 Tommy John surgery. He later signed a two-year minor league deal with the Red Sox, with that club realizing Altavilla likely wouldn’t contribute much or anything at all in 2022. He returned to the mound in July of 2023, making four appearances in the Complex League and another four in High-A. In his 12 innings pitched, he allowed four earned runs, walked five opponents and struck out seven. The Sox released him in August.

He didn’t sign with another affiliated club as the season was winding down but did go to the Dominican Republic for winter ball. He’s made 10 appearances for Tigres del Licey, with nine strikeouts, three walks and two earned runs allowed. Heyman reports that he was hitting 98mph in that showing.

Prior to the lengthy injury odyssey, Altavilla had some major league experience with the Mariners and Padres, showing an ability for big strikeouts but also control concerns. He currently has a career earned run average of 4.03 in 116 big league innings. He struck out 26.1% of batters in that time but also walked 12.1%.

The Royals have plenty of room in their bullpen for some guys to step up and take jobs. Scott Barlow and Aroldis Chapman were both traded last year, removing two of the higher-leverage guys. They have since acquired Nick Anderson, but there’s still not a lot of certainty in the relief mix. If Altavilla is in good form and gets a roster spot, he could be retained for another season via arbitration since his service time is still below the five-year mark. He is out of options, however, meaning he wouldn’t have the ability to be sent back down to the minors without being exposed to waivers.

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